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Even though renewable energy development has gained momentum in China, thermal power generation still accounts for approximately 70% of the county's total power generation serving as the major source of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in China. Facing the challenges of meeting 2030 peak target of CO 2 emission and realizing the coordinated development of thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, this paper applies generalized Divisia Index Method (GDIM) to decompose the dynamics in the relevant CO 2 emission. The effects of five factors including electricity demand, energy consumption, technology, energy efficiency and energy-mix are considered. The decomposition suggests that electricity demand is the primary factor driving the CO 2 emission up, whereas technology effect decreases CO 2 emission the most. Given the significant roles of technology, energy-mix and energy efficiency in CO 2 emissions reduction, seven scenarios are designed to identify the optimal coordinated development pathway for thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Through upgrading energy structure and/or enhancing energy efficiency, the thermal power generation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can achieve coordinated development and realize the 2030 peak target under four scenarios. The detailed development pathways for CO 2 emissions and specific policy implications for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are provided to further govern CO 2 emissions and maintain sustainable development. • Proposed a five-factor Generalized Divisia Index Model (GDIM) for CO 2 emission analysis. • Analyzed the CO 2 from thermal power generation in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. • Electricity demand and technology contributed the most to the positive and negative changes of CO 2 , respectively. • Designed seven thermal generation development scenarios to study the CO 2 change until 2030. • The 2030 CO 2 peak target can be achieved under four scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]