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Under the background that China will achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, analyzing the impact of carbon neutral target constraints on the welfare of urban and rural residents is an important part of the design of a carbon emission reduction policy mechanism, in this paper, the dynamic recursive CGE(Computable general equilibrium) model is used to simulate the changes in welfare level, income consumption, and CO2 emissions of residents and their urban-rural heterogeneity under the policy of imposing a carbon tax on the fossil energy industry from 2022 to 2060. The results show that: compared with the BAU scenario, by 2060, first the income and consumption of residents will decrease slightly. Second, the target constraint of carbon neutrality makes the equivalent variation and compensate variation of urban and rural residents' welfare decrease slightly, and the equivalent variation and compensate variation of urban residents decrease more than those of rural residents. The following conclusions are drawn: first, the carbon-neutral target constraint makes the welfare of urban and rural residents decline slightly, but it will not have a strong impact on residents' income and consumption. Second, this constraint has a greater impact on the income, consumption and savings of urban residents than those of rural residents. [Display omitted] • A five-layer nested dynamic recursive CGE model is established to analyze residents' welfare. • Carbon taxes are incorporated into production decisions as a policy cost for energy companies. • The heterogeneity of the impact of carbon tax policy constraints on the welfare of urban and rural residents was analyzed. • The government needs to improve the intensive and diversified energy supply in rural areas to reduce the urban-rural gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coverage of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) has been widely discussed. Based on the plans of the various stages of the National Development and Reform Commission in China, we explore the different impacts of different plans by applying recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium. What we found is different. Covering more industries, carbon prices will be lower so that the emission reduction motivation of each covering enterprises will be reduced. However, the resource attributes of carbon emission allowance will gradually emerge. In general, we found that the changes in the sectoral coverage will bring about the changes in the two effects in ETS market: carbon price effect and the allocation effect. The interaction of the two effects has led to a positive impact of both low-coverage and high-coverage on reducing emissions and improving the energy efficiency. This paper suggests that just covering three enterprises that are easy-to-MRV (monitoring, reporting, and verification) is enough for emissions reduction: cement, chemical and electric power, which can also achieve high emission reduction efficiency and can effectively reduce supervision cost. • A dynamic recursive CGE model is established in this paper. • There are two effects in ETS market: carbon price effect and the allocation effect. • Reduction efficiency is an inverted U-shaped curve to the changes of coverage. • Cement, chemical and electricity are encouraged to participate in ETS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]