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The five major power generation corporations dominate the power industry in China, and play vital roles in China's carbon trading scheme. Under this circumstance, this paper studies the allocation of carbon emission quotas to China's five major power generation corporations based on the fairness and efficiency principles, which proves the primary prerequisite for setting up the national carbon market. Specifically, a bi-level programming model is developed to optimally allocate carbon emission quotas to the corporations, and then a zero sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model is adopted to evaluate the efficiency of the allocation so as to adjust towards the optimal solution. The results indicate that power generation has significantly positive influence on the allocation of carbon emission quotas. Moreover, the difference between the sum of optimal carbon emissions and the sum of carbon quotas allocated is 1.431 billion tons, which implies that the emission reduction potential of the five major power generation corporations is tremendous. Finally, the bi-level model in this paper can well capture the context of China's power industry and provide effective results for the allocation of carbon quotas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The metallurgy industry plays a very important role in China's economic growth. Due to its energy concentration, the energy consumption of the industry accounts for a large proportion of China's total energy consumption, and thus contributes to carbon emissions. Whether the metallurgy industry can successfully reduce emissions is related to the future of China's carbon emissions targets. In this paper, the logarithmic mean Divisia index model is used to analyze the change in China's carbon dioxide emissions from 1991 to 2014. The empirical results show that there are three main factors affecting the carbon dioxide emissions of China's metallurgy industry. The three factors are labor productivity, energy intensity and industry size. In addition, we further analyzed the deep motivation of carbon dioxide emissions in the industry, and calculated the future emission reduction potentials. Lastly, according to the empirical results, the paper proposes policy recommendations for the future emission reduction of China's metallurgy industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract As a significant basic industry for the national economic development, coal chemical industry is one of the main contributors to energy consumption and CO 2 emission. In this paper, the CO 2 emission in the time series of 2020 and 2030 was calculated and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was employed to explore the driving forces of CO 2 emission change. According to the industry development, the CO 2 emission in 2020 and 2030 was tentatively predicted. The results show that China's coal chemical industry has experienced a significant increase in CO 2 emission, from 177.87 million ton CO 2 (MtCO 2) to 427.19 MtCO 2 in 2005–2015, with an average annual growth rate of 9.16%. Currently, the coal-to-ammonia industry is the largest contributor. According to the decomposition analysis, the economic growth and energy intensity are the two positive factors and the industry structure is a negative factor to carbon emission change. In 2020, the CO 2 emission will be 617.34 MtCO 2 under slow development scenario and 759.69 MtCO 2 under rapid development scenario. In 2030, the CO 2 emission will reach 1041.90 MtCO 2 and 1440.13 MtCO 2 under slow and fast development scenarios, respectively. The coal-to-olefins industry will take the place of coal-to-ammonia and turn to be the largest one in 2020 and 2030 if no CO 2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technologies are adopted. It is probable that the contribution from coal-to-methanol will also play important role for CO 2 emission due to its rapid development. In addition, by 2030, if coal-to-natural gas industry develops as planned, its CO 2 emission will significantly increase, which has the potential to be equivalent to that of olefins industry. Highlights • The CO 2 emission evolution trend in China's coal chemical industry is analyzed. • The major driving factors of CO 2 emission change are identified and the effect sizes of various factors are evaluated. • The CO 2 emission in 2020 and 2030 is forecasted. • Policy implications to policymakers are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Theses on China's low-carbon economy focus on the driving forces of carbon emissions, energy–carbon efficiency, and the carbon–economy nexus. Meanwhile, comprehensive frameworks that assess China's green economy and also analyze its driving forces are lacking. This paper constructs a green productivity index based on the Global Malmquist–Luenberger productivity index to evaluate the development of the low-carbon economy in China. A panel vector auto-regression model is adopted to further analyze the endogenous interactions and dynamic relationships among aspects of the green economy and its influencing factors. Empirical results show that China has seen a balanced development of green economic growth in 2000–2016, achieved in a series of clear stages. To maintain the sustainable growth of the low-carbon economy in the future, China must rely more on technological progress. This research also makes some important discoveries that have not been found in previous studies: the impact of China's industrial structure and energy consumption structure on the green economy are short term, having a duration of impact of approximately four years. Finally, we provide an assessment of provincial green economy development and describe the corresponding policy implications. Graphical abstract Image Highlights • A comprehensive analysis of China's green economy. • A slack-based Global Malmquist–Luenberger index is adopted to calculate the Green Productivity Index in China. • The stage characteristics of green economic development are identified. • A panel vector autoregressive model is used to analyze the interactions among aspects of the environmental economic system. • The findings that the impact duration of energy structure, industry structure, and urbanization on the green economy is about four years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The construction industry is one of the largest energy consumers and CO 2 emitters in China. This paper primarily aimed to explore the driving forces of energy-related CO 2 emissions (ECE) from the construction industry. Adopting a comprehensive decomposition approach, this study decomposes the changes in ECE into eight factors. The main results provide the following findings. (1) Industrial activity was the largest factor pushing the growth of CO 2 emissions, driving up CO 2 emissions in all years and contributing to a 174.65 Mt CO 2 emissions increase in total. (2) In contrast, advances in industrial output technology represented the dominant factor inhibiting CO 2 emissions, cumulatively reducing CO 2 emissions by 99 Mt. (3) The effects of potential energy intensity changes and industrial output technical efficiency fluctuated in different years but exerted positive effects on CO 2 emissions over the entire period. (4) Additionally, changes in spatial structure, energy-saving technology, and energy consumption structure as well as energy usage efficiency all contributed to emissions reductions to varying degrees. The CO 2 emissions of the construction industry increased in all provinces, while emissions changes and their factor effects varied distinctly across provinces. Highlights • Direct and indirect CO 2 emissions in China's construction industry are calculated. • Impacts of driving factors are quantified by combining the PDA and IDA methods. • Industrial activity is mainly responsible for CO 2 emissions increase. • Industrial output technology change is the dominant curbing factor. • Factor effects of China's construction industry vary distinctly across provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable energy statistics serve as the foundation and starting point for understanding the climate policies of any country. As the most comprehensive sources of energy data for China, China Energy Statistics Yearbooks (ESY), published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), underwent three major revisions since 2005. This paper analyzes how these three major revisions correspond to data on China's energy use from 1996 to 2012, and theirs impacts on CO 2 emissions, emission intensity and the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption, which are key indicators of China's climate policies. Some notable changes include CO 2 emissions for 2012, which increased by 594 Million tons – a figure equivalent to South Korea's annual emissions, which implies that China's emissions at peak level will be higher than previous estimation. Meanwhile, revised emission intensity data show a higher amount and lower decreasing rate, which means that China's achievements in decreasing emission intensity during 2005–2012 have been overestimated, while future difficulties for achieving the goal of 40–45% reduction will be greater. On the share of non-fossil fuel energy in China's total energy mix, the adjustments increased the indicator by 1.26%, reflecting the fact that China's effort in developing non-fossil energy had been underestimated. Discrepancies in reported scattered coal in different statistics versions are the main contributors to these changes. To further enhance the reliability of its energy statistics, and thereby its climate policies, China should remove incentives for misreporting through legal means, and make the technical system for data collection more comprehensive and accurate, with particular emphasis on scattered coal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-Carbon Consumption Behavior (HCCB) of urban residents is one of the main obstacles to the goals of low carbon development in China with the rapid development of the national economy. Among all the uptrend influences, the one caused by conspicuous consumption is worth more attention. In this paper, a structural equation model was applied to analyze the impact path of conspicuous consumption motivation on HCCB. Multiple group analysis was then used to test the moderating effect of individual face conscious and demographics on the impact. Our data originated from a social study of Xuzhou, Jiangsu province, China (n = 351). The results indicated four leading aspects. First, the raising habitual HCCB is mainly affected by three points, materialistic hedonism, interpersonal mediation and social status demonstration, and the influence is reduced in successively. While communication of belonging to/dissociation from a group and ostentation have little effect on habitual HCCB. The second, purchased HCCB of residents is mainly impacted positively by materialistic hedonism, and other factors have weak influence on it. The third, face consciousness has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between residents’ conspicuous consumption motivation and HCCB. People with strong face consciousness are more affected by the social status demonstration and interpersonal mediation; those with weak face consciousness are only driven by material hedonism. The last, gender, marital status, age, education level, and household monthly disposable income have significant moderating effects on the relationship. Among them, the HCCB from males, young people, married persons, highly educated people, and higher income groups is more affected by materialistic hedonism, interpersonal mediation, and social status demonstration, while from females with lower education, and lower income groups is more likely to be driven by social status demonstration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government committed to reduce its national CO 2 emissions intensity by 40–45% until 2020 in response to climate change. This paper quantitatively evaluates the performance of CO 2 emissions reduction over the period 2005–2020 from the historical and prospective perspectives by using a combination of decomposition analysis and scenario analysis, aiming to provide suggestions about how to achieve the target in key emissions reduction fields. Unlike traditional index decomposition methods, this paper incorporates the total energy conversion efficiency effect into the model, and further decomposes it into a final energy mix effect and a final energy conversion efficiency effect by a multilevel decomposition procedure, allowing to measure the contributions of primary energy structure low-carbonization, the final energy mix electrification, and the energy conversion efficiency improvement. The results show that the carbon intensity could decline over the period 2005–2020 by 47.8%, 50.9%, 48.0%, 44.5% and 47.5% in the Business as Usual, S1, S2, S3 and S4 scenarios, respectively. This shows that the 40–45% target is very likely to be achieved. The final energy intensity effect is always the most important driving factor, causing carbon intensity to decrease by 24.0% and 22.1%, again respectively, from 2005–2012 to 2012–2020. Moreover, the energy conversion effect was another major driver during 2005–2012. The Chinese government needs to make more efforts to adjust the industrial structure, which could cause carbon intensity to decrease by 3.6% during 2012–2020, and to adjust the primary energy mix, which could cause carbon intensity to decrease by 7.1% during 2012–2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging economies like China, India, and Mexico are becoming the world's manufacturing leaders through the engagement in offshoring production activities. In achieving this status, however, they have met with difficult environmental issues. This paper features an analysis of industry-level panel data to examine the link between different offshoring tasks in China and carbon dioxide emissions. Through this analysis, the environmental effects of offshored production are addressed. Specifically an input–output model is presented, thereby quantifying offshored production tasks in China. The results show that iron and steel, nonferrous metals (IS) and chemicals (CH) generate the most carbon dioxide during production of processed goods. Additionally, electrical machinery (EM) and general machinery (GM) generate a higher amount of carbon dioxide during production of parts and components. The results also show that those industries characterized by higher energy consumption have higher carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions induced by offshoring. Given these results, it seems that any solutions geared towards reducing the energy consumption of entire manufacturing industries would be useful. Furthermore, the results of the analyses presented here indicate that China would be responsible for working with developed countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions through cooperative environmental regulation. A globalization perspective is adopted to offer unique insight into the environmental issues faced by China. The results of this paper would provide quantified, actionable information for formulating practical industrial policies geared towards reducing carbon dioxide leakage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surge in energy consumption and CO 2 (carbon dioxide) emissions is exacerbating global warming. The Chinese government has promised to reduce CO 2 emission by 60%–65% per unit of GDP over the 2005 level by around 2030. Analyzing the factors influencing CO 2 emissions is one of the key aspects involved in effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we add climatic factors based on socio-economic factors, and adopt the extended STIRPAT model to investigate the mechanism driving emissions by the co-action of natural and socio-economic factors. The results show that the 1995–2014 emissions in China's Zhejiang province had an upward trend with growth rates varying between intermediate periods. The order of the factors' elasticity coefficients is urbanization rate (0.181) > GDP per capita (0.180) > population (0.177) > energy intensity (0.170) > trade openness (0.170) > cooling degree days (0.127) > mean temperature anomaly (0.116). Economic development and urbanization were the main factors promoting CO 2 emissions in 1996–1999, while economic development and foreign trade were the main factors in 2000–2014. Policy makers should pay more attention to keeping a healthy pace of economic development, introducing more low energy consumption and low pollution enterprises and encouraging technological innovation. Improving the quality of urbanization, guiding a sustainable lifestyle, adjusting the structure of foreign trade and curbing energy intensity are also expected to reduce emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As one of the largest energy consumers, the transport sector generated direct and indirect emissions which significantly affect the environment, accounting for approximately one-third of the total carbon emissions. While the major impacts are from transport energy use and emissions, very few studies attempted to examine the impacts from transport infrastructure, especially at a city or country level. This paper, taking Shenzhen in China (a fast developing megacity) as the case study, is specially designed to quantify the carbon footprint of the urban roads by using streamlined life cycle assessment method. For given years (ranged from 2004 to 2013), various activities of urban roads (e.g. newly planned road construction, maintenance of road in use, and road renovation and demolition) have been examined in this study. The results show that the total carbon footprint from urban roads in Shenzhen was 260 (±20) thousand tons CO 2 e in 2013. The major contributor was the materials use (embodied impact) from newly constructed roads, which accounts for 52.3% of the total carbon footprint, followed by the maintenance stage (24.3%). The eco-design process of road construction plays a vital role in achieving the effective carbon footprint reduction. These findings help to better understand the carbon footprint from urban roads in megacities, and provide useful inputs for policy making process in terms of identifying carbon reduction opportunities for the transport sector. In addition, the methodologies are useful for the quantification of carbon footprint in other cities of China and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change which is induced from energy consumption and CO 2 emissions has got people's attention; hence, many strategies and ways are being adopted to mitigate CO 2 emissions. Energy substitution is crucial to the promotion of energy conservation and CO 2 emissions reduction. The purpose of this paper is to estimate both inter-factor and inter-fuel substitution in China's iron & steel industry during the period 1985–2011. Empirical results show several conclusions for China's iron & steel industry: (1) own-price elasticity of energy is negative, so increase in energy price will reduce energy input; (2) energy and capital, and energy and labor are substitutes, and the substitution in energy/capital is relatively stronger; (3) though coal, oil and electricity are also substitutes, the substitution effect is not so obvious because of pricing distortions in China. The driving forces of energy efficiency change are further discussed and the results show that technology progress is the key factor determining energy intensity. Therefore, market-oriented reforms in terms of energy prices, improvement in energy substitution (including inter-factor and inter-fuel substation) and promotion of energy saving technologies are important means for ensuring future energy conservation and CO 2 emissions reduction practices in China's iron & steel sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Due to increasing energy scarcity and pressures from climate change, Chinese iron & steel (IS) companies have struggled to implement practices to reduce their energy consumption and CO2 emissions. However, it is not clear whether these practices can improve the environmental or economic performance of these companies. The determinants that drive or hinder the implementation of these practices are also not known. Therefore, this paper describes an empirical analysis of a total of 85 questionnaires of various IS companies across China. A regression analysis was applied in this paper to verify the relationship among CO2 reduction practices, determinants and performance as reported by the IS companies. The results show that although some CO2 reduction practices can result in significant environmental performance, their impacts on the improvement of economic performance are less clear. The paper discusses some implications regarding strategies for prompting CO2 reduction practices that have been considered during the discussion about the determinants that impact on the practices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The coal-fired power sector is the main source of CO 2 emissions in China. This paper proposes a carbon abatement cost estimate model based on computing the emissions gap between the Chinese national energy consumption standards of units (NECS) and the units' coal consumption for per unit electricity supply (CCES). By applying the proposed model, the abatement costs of four coal-fired power generation units (600 MW USC, 1000 MW USC, 265 MW IGCC, 600 MW SC CFB) with or without Carbon capture and storage (CCS) are estimated in six combined scenarios. The results show that (1) the units' total cost would increase more than one time after conducting CCS while the unit cost of carbon emissions abatement would decrease more than 64%; (2) the 1000 MW USC unit with CCS has the largest carbon reduction potential and the lowest unit abatement cost among all units in all scenarios; (3) 265 MW IGCC unit would have no carbon reduction potential after 25 service years, and its service years may be shortened; and (4) the 256 MW IGCC and 600 MW SC CFB is the most sensitive to the average annual decline rate of NECS but the four units of installed CCS are not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015 Paris climate change negotiations represents the most ambitious worldwide effort to date to combat climate change. As the largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, China pledges 60–65% cut in carbon intensity below 2005 levels by 2030. To accelerate China's climate efforts, China has also committed to cap its primary energy use at 4.8 billion tons of coal equivalent in 2020. This paper proposes an equitable and efficient scheme to disaggregate this national goal among provinces. A three-step disaggregation procedure is proposed which takes into account the initial allocation, national redistribution and inter-provincial adjustment. First, this study allocates the incremental energy quota, taking 2010 as the base year. Second, part of the energy quota is set aside by the central government for redistribution purposes, while an incremental energy quota index comprising equity and efficiency criteria is used for initial allocation among provinces. Finally, historical efforts and inter-provincial energy flows are considered for inter-provincial adjustment. This disaggregation scheme is flexible and can be easily extended to allocation and management of other resource and environmental targets. The empirical findings can assist decision-makers in identifying which provinces are likely to over-consume the energy quota relative to the proposed allocation and which provinces are likely to perform better in energy conservation. Moreover, the results show that the energy cap set for 2020 is unachievable without further action. Market-based instruments, such as an energy allowance trading market, are strongly recommended to achieve the energy use target in an equitable and cost-effective manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pollution emissions have become a matter of public concern in recent years. However, the vast majority of existing researches on PM 2.5 pollution are from the natural science perspective, and few studies have been conducted from an economic point of view. This paper adopts provincial panel data from 2001 to 2012 and panel data models to analyze the key driving forces of PM 2.5 emissions at the regional level in China. The results show that economic growth is a decisive factor of PM 2.5 emissions. The impacts of urbanization on PM 2.5 emissions vary across regions and decrease continuously from the central region to the western and eastern regions. The effects of private cars and coal consumption on PM 2.5 emissions in the eastern region are greater than that in the central and western regions because of significant differences in R&D investment, private car ownership and total coal consumption. Energy efficiency improvement has greater potential to mitigate PM 2.5 emissions in the central and western regions than that in the eastern region due to its low level of technology. Hence, in order to effectively reduce emissions, the Chinese government should consider all these factors as well as regional heterogeneity in developing appropriate mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has been viewed as an emission abatement option with great potential in China as coal has dominated China's energy consumption. China has already started to pay attention to CCS, as well as to the proposed the concept of ‘CCUS’ (which adds CO 2 Utilization into the chain of capture, transportation and storage). However, CCS is still in the early stages of its technological development, and the high cost, with several internal and external uncertainties make the role that CCS can play in China's future emission reduction unclear. From the perspective of general equilibrium analysis, this paper introduces CCS into a regional energy–economy–environment integrated assessment model, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of CCS's potential for future development and contribution to emission abatement in China. At climate policy level, the potential contribution of CCS in emission abatement has been evaluated against different future emission constraint scenarios in China. At technological level, the effects of endogenous learning and policy incentives on CCS have been investigated, and the substitution capacities of CCS and Non-hydro renewables to fossil energy have been discussed, as well as their technology penetration rates. Furthermore, the impact of CO 2 utilization on the development of CCS has also been discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the combustion of fossil fuel became the largest contributing factor of greenhouse gas emissions in China, the growth of energy consumption caused by urbanization has led to significant increase in carbon emissions. Applying both the carbon-emissions-coefficient and the sector-energy-consumption method, we predicted the energy consumption and carbon emissions, explored the characteristics of energy consumption and carbon emissions in different urbanization stages, and analyzed the energy crisis in Shandong which is a typical province in China. The results indicate that in 2015 and 2020, the total primary energy consumption will be 1.57 times and 1.85 times higher than that of in 2009, and the carbon emissions are estimated to be 1.48 times and 1.67 times respectively. The urbanization has distinct positive effects on energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the influence is more obvious in the intermediate-stage than in the early-stage. From a policy perspective, this paper could provide valuable information for planners and decision makers to formulate feasible and practical polices with a view to optimize energy structure and mitigate carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is experiencing a stage of rapid urban development. The energy consumption and related carbon dioxide emissions of households continue to increase. This paper calculates direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households based on the input–output method in China from 1996 to 2012. The results reveal that there were more total carbon dioxide emissions from urban households than from rural households, far more indirect emissions from urban households than from rural households, slightly more direct emissions from urban households than from rural households, and differences in direct carbon dioxide emissions from various fuels and in indirect emissions from various sectors between urban and rural households. To examine the causal relationship between urbanization and the carbon dioxide emissions of households, cointegration and Granger causality tests are applied. A unidirectional causal relation was found running from urbanization to both direct and indirect household carbon dioxide emissions, and the direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions of households would increase 2.9% and 1.1%, respectively, for every increase of one percent in urbanization. We discuss the reasons of why the development of urbanization will lead to more household direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions, and suggest certain policy implications for urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions based on the results of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing energy and material consumption associated with global economic growth has resulted in the need for more severe efforts at mitigating global climate change. The iron and steel industry consumes 8% of energy and emits 7% of total CO 2 globally. China's iron and steel industry contributes to 15% of that country's total CO 2 emissions. Therefore, there is an urgent need to explore the possibility of net zero emissions in the iron and steel industry in China to meet China's goal of carbon neutrality before 2060. In the study presented in this paper, the MESSAGEix–China iron and steel model was developed by integrating the process-based technology of the sector into the IIASA's MESSAGEix framework to explore zero CO 2 emission pathways and their associated impacts on resources, energy, and water in China's iron and steel industry up to 2100. We found that there are multiple pathways to achieving zero CO 2 emissions in the Chinese iron and steel industry by the end of the 21st century. More specifically, in all the pathways developed in this study, CO 2 emissions decreased significantly between 2030 and 2060 due to the rapid application of 100% scrap-based Electric Arc Furnaces (EAFs) and hydrogen-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI)-EAFs steel-making technologies. However, by 2060, there will still be 70–360 Mt of CO 2 emissions from China's iron and steel industry; consequently, carbon sink or negative emission technologies are required to offset this and achieve the country's carbon neutrality goal. Furthermore, technologies for achieving zero emissions differ widely in terms of their impacts on the consumption of materials and energy. Compared to the electric (ELE) scenarios, 25–40% of extra iron ore is consumed in the current and new national policy (NPS) scenarios and the DRI scenarios, but 25–220% of scrap is required. At the same time, 20–150% more energy will be saved in the ELE scenarios than in the NPS and DRI scenarios. Finally, we recommend that policy makers design a cross-cutting strategy to achieve zero CO 2 emissions and enhance efforts for material recycling and the provision of clean energy and water. • There are multiple pathways to achieving net zero emissions in China's iron and steel industry. • Steel outputs are essential for reducing CO 2 emissions and conserving materials, energy, and water. • Hydrogen-based DRI and 100% scrap-EAFs technologies are key to achieving zero emissions. • CO 2 mitigation measures have limited impacts on water consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]