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Abstract Guangdong is one of China's fastest developing provinces, and thus faces the challenge of reducing CO 2 emissions whilst fostering economic growth. In order to advance the goal of developing a low-carbon economy in China, this study explored influencing factors, change trends, and reduction potential in relation to CO 2 emissions in Guangdong Province using a provincial dataset covering the period 1995 to 2014. We used extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model and the technique of ridge regression in order to identify key influencing factors behind Guangdong's CO 2 emissions. We also forecasted emission trends and estimated reduction potential in the period 2015–2030. Our empirical results indicate that economic development, population growth, urbanization, fixed asset investment, and industrialization level all positively affected CO 2 emissions during the period studied, while the impacts of energy consumption structure and technology progress were found to be negative. Scenario simulations reveal that the aggregate CO 2 emissions of Guangdong Province will increase continuously up to 2030 under all of the twenty scenarios developed and tested in this study; despite this, we argue that the potential for emission reduction remains large. An optimal scenario was identified after cross-sectional comparison. Our analysis casts new light on the importance of exploring socioeconomic determinants and reduction potential in relation to emissions, in order to plan for rapidly developing regions like Guangdong. The empirical findings have significant implications for the Chinese government in implementing policy measures in order to promote low-carbon development. Highlights • The influencing factors, change trends and reduction potential of CO 2 emissions in Guangdong are explored. • Extended STIRPAT model, ridge regression and scenarios analysis are utilized. • Economic growth, population, urbanization, fix asset investment and industrialization positively affected CO 2 emissions. • Technology and energy consumption structure have a negative impact on CO 2 emissions. • An optimal scenario to promote low-carbon strategy for Guangdong government is identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surge in energy consumption and CO 2 (carbon dioxide) emissions is exacerbating global warming. The Chinese government has promised to reduce CO 2 emission by 60%–65% per unit of GDP over the 2005 level by around 2030. Analyzing the factors influencing CO 2 emissions is one of the key aspects involved in effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we add climatic factors based on socio-economic factors, and adopt the extended STIRPAT model to investigate the mechanism driving emissions by the co-action of natural and socio-economic factors. The results show that the 1995–2014 emissions in China's Zhejiang province had an upward trend with growth rates varying between intermediate periods. The order of the factors' elasticity coefficients is urbanization rate (0.181) > GDP per capita (0.180) > population (0.177) > energy intensity (0.170) > trade openness (0.170) > cooling degree days (0.127) > mean temperature anomaly (0.116). Economic development and urbanization were the main factors promoting CO 2 emissions in 1996–1999, while economic development and foreign trade were the main factors in 2000–2014. Policy makers should pay more attention to keeping a healthy pace of economic development, introducing more low energy consumption and low pollution enterprises and encouraging technological innovation. Improving the quality of urbanization, guiding a sustainable lifestyle, adjusting the structure of foreign trade and curbing energy intensity are also expected to reduce emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Office buildings are now responsible for a large portion of the durable building stock's total energy consumption and play a key role in determining urban sustainability. Based on remote sensing and GIS data as well as statistical analysis methods, we found that building construction characteristics, socio-economic conditions, climate conditions, and microclimate contributed 32.27%, 18.37%, 13.84%, and 10.66%, respectively, to office building energy carbon emissions in China. Floor area, number of energy consumers, regional scientific investment, and heating degree days had positive relationships with office energy usages. Among these, the number of energy consumers had the greatest effect on OEC and heating degree day had the least effect. Technological progress may reduce energy demand, but the energy waste of office workers in buildings that adopt more energy-saving appliance, or admire for more comfortable temperature environment could offset these savings. Most of the taller buildings surveyed were constructed recently and equipped with energy-saving appliances, but these savings may have been offset by greater use of energy associated with higher income level, and greater support for energy spending from the government. These results provide baseline information for designing emission reductions programs and further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China produces a huge amount of CO 2 emissions that need to be reduced to comply with international commitments. Identifying the driving factors is critical for achieving mitigation targets and transiting toward a low-carbon economy in China. This study is one of the first few attempts to apply panel data and spatial econometrics models to analyze the spatial dependence of province-level CO 2 emission intensity and the economic drivers of such emissions. First, we conducted a systematical review of the development of spatial econometrics. Second, we generated a panel data set about energy and socioeconomic development of 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2005 to 2012. Next, we chose the most appropriate model to explain the predominant factors of energy-related CO 2 emissions based on a series of tests of the spatial econometrics models. The results suggested that technology improvement, adjustment of industrial and energy structures, and environmentally friendly behaviors and patterns of consumption of habitants play an important role in CO 2 emissions mitigation. The results also revealed that CO 2 emissions had strong spatial spillover effects, which indicate that policies adopted in one province will affect policy-making in neighboring provinces, implying that provinces need take combined action to balance climate change mitigation and economic policy goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]