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As major strategic development areas in China, the provinces around the Yangtze River are facing the pressure of large aggregate CO 2 emissions and high per capita CO 2 emissions. The study on the pathway of reducing CO 2 emissions and increasing carbon sequestration will help China better clarify the ways realize the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. In this paper, the extended STIRPAT model and OLS regression were used to establish a prediction model to estimate the CO 2 emissions during 2010–2060 under different scenarios. Meanwhile, the InVEST model was used to estimate the carbon sequestration, and the comparison with the CO 2 emissions was analyzed. The results show that Qinghai and Yunnan have achieved the goal of carbon neutrality in 2010. Under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario and the baseline scenario, all provinces within the study area are anticipated to attain their emissions peak by 2030 or earlier, and the CO 2 emissions peak value of the whole study area is 3111 Mt and 3199 Mt, respectively. While under the high emissions scenario, only Chongqing and Qinghai will reach the emissions peak in 2030, and the whole study area will reach the emissions peak in 2040, with peak value of 3470 Mt. Under the three scenarios, the whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Only Sichuan and Hubei can achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 and 2060 under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario. All provinces and municipalities in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are facing huge pressure of emissions reduction. The research reveals that the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality should be achieved by developing clean energy, transforming industrial structure, increasing carbon sequestration and improving carbon emissions trading system. [Display omitted] • The CO 2 emissions showed a pattern of increase during 2010–2020. • The whole study area will achieve carbon peak by 2040 or earlier. • The whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. • The realization pathway of carbon peak and neutrality was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon sequestration of blue carbon ecosystems worldwide is as high as 237.6 Tg C/a. China is one of the countries with the most resources of blue carbon, with carbon sequestration of 0.835 Tg C/a. To develop blue economy and facilitate the fulfillment of carbon neutrality, it is of great significance for China to build the blue carbon trading market (BCTM). This paper aimed to improve the participation probability of stakeholders to construct an effective BCTM through evolutionary game theory. First, we constructed a tripartite evolutionary game model including the governments, the suppliers of blue carbon (SBC) and the demanders of blue carbon (DBC), based on the corresponding cost and benefit in BCTM. To further reveal the factors affecting the cooperation of above parties, we analyzed the sensitivity of the stakeholders through five parameters, i.e., proportion of subsidies, unit carbon tax, blue carbon credits, unit price of blue carbon credits, and the cost of carbon emission reduction unit. To verify the game model, a case study of blue carbon credits of mangrove trading was performed. The main conclusions are as follows. In the initial stage of BCTM, the governments need to play a leading role in regulating and incentivizing motivation of the SBC and DBC. Subsidies and carbon taxes are conducive to promoting BCTM to develop into the middle stage. In the middle stage, price and quota of BC credits are two primary parameters to affect the evolutionary results of above three groups. Thus, it's necessary for the governments to adjust these parameters in time. When the trading scale and operation mode of BCTM approaching stable, the market will enter into the mature stage. Then, the governments can reduce subsidies to save fiscal expenditure and lessen the intervention, so as to gradually withdraw from the market. The above conclusions can provide a theoretical basis and reference for the construction of efficient BCTM and promote the integration of blue carbon into the carbon market in China. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]