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As major strategic development areas in China, the provinces around the Yangtze River are facing the pressure of large aggregate CO 2 emissions and high per capita CO 2 emissions. The study on the pathway of reducing CO 2 emissions and increasing carbon sequestration will help China better clarify the ways realize the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. In this paper, the extended STIRPAT model and OLS regression were used to establish a prediction model to estimate the CO 2 emissions during 2010–2060 under different scenarios. Meanwhile, the InVEST model was used to estimate the carbon sequestration, and the comparison with the CO 2 emissions was analyzed. The results show that Qinghai and Yunnan have achieved the goal of carbon neutrality in 2010. Under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario and the baseline scenario, all provinces within the study area are anticipated to attain their emissions peak by 2030 or earlier, and the CO 2 emissions peak value of the whole study area is 3111 Mt and 3199 Mt, respectively. While under the high emissions scenario, only Chongqing and Qinghai will reach the emissions peak in 2030, and the whole study area will reach the emissions peak in 2040, with peak value of 3470 Mt. Under the three scenarios, the whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Only Sichuan and Hubei can achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 and 2060 under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario. All provinces and municipalities in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are facing huge pressure of emissions reduction. The research reveals that the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality should be achieved by developing clean energy, transforming industrial structure, increasing carbon sequestration and improving carbon emissions trading system. [Display omitted] • The CO 2 emissions showed a pattern of increase during 2010–2020. • The whole study area will achieve carbon peak by 2040 or earlier. • The whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. • The realization pathway of carbon peak and neutrality was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon sink is an effective measure to balance the contradiction between economic development and mitigating climate change in China. This paper reveals that environmental performance of forest carbon sinks reflects in economic value by reducing the emissions abatement cost. The carbon trading system is used to demonstrate the environmental and economic value of forests. The forest carbon sequestrations are estimated and predicted in different regions of China. Furthermore, a market model has been established to assess how the emission reduction costs can be reduced among all regions by the year 2030 to achieve the goal of carbon emissions intensity in China. The results show that carbon sequestration trades can reduce the emissions reduction costs and it can represent the value of forest carbon sinks. In particular, when economic growth is maintained in moderate and low level in China, the national carbon trading market with carbon sequestration will decrease the carbon emissions reduction costs more effectively. Besides, carbon sink can bring economic benefits to under-developed regions where there are rich forest resources. Image 1 • Carbon sinks are coordination between the environment and the economy. • Carbon sinks can be valued by emissions trading market. • Forest carbon sinks help to achieve carbon emissions reduction targets. • Forest carbon sinks promote economic development in some backward areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon sequestration of blue carbon ecosystems worldwide is as high as 237.6 Tg C/a. China is one of the countries with the most resources of blue carbon, with carbon sequestration of 0.835 Tg C/a. To develop blue economy and facilitate the fulfillment of carbon neutrality, it is of great significance for China to build the blue carbon trading market (BCTM). This paper aimed to improve the participation probability of stakeholders to construct an effective BCTM through evolutionary game theory. First, we constructed a tripartite evolutionary game model including the governments, the suppliers of blue carbon (SBC) and the demanders of blue carbon (DBC), based on the corresponding cost and benefit in BCTM. To further reveal the factors affecting the cooperation of above parties, we analyzed the sensitivity of the stakeholders through five parameters, i.e., proportion of subsidies, unit carbon tax, blue carbon credits, unit price of blue carbon credits, and the cost of carbon emission reduction unit. To verify the game model, a case study of blue carbon credits of mangrove trading was performed. The main conclusions are as follows. In the initial stage of BCTM, the governments need to play a leading role in regulating and incentivizing motivation of the SBC and DBC. Subsidies and carbon taxes are conducive to promoting BCTM to develop into the middle stage. In the middle stage, price and quota of BC credits are two primary parameters to affect the evolutionary results of above three groups. Thus, it's necessary for the governments to adjust these parameters in time. When the trading scale and operation mode of BCTM approaching stable, the market will enter into the mature stage. Then, the governments can reduce subsidies to save fiscal expenditure and lessen the intervention, so as to gradually withdraw from the market. The above conclusions can provide a theoretical basis and reference for the construction of efficient BCTM and promote the integration of blue carbon into the carbon market in China. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the social context of mitigating climate change and achieving carbon neutrality, the improvement of carbon emissions efficiency and the protection of biological carbon sequestration have emerged as hot topics recently due to their prospects in carbon dioxide emissions reductions. A large volume of studies has identified the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions efficiency. The contributions of our study lied in constructing a system to measure net carbon sink efficiency. Secondly, this study discussed the carbon neutrality performance of Chinese cities from three different aspects of carbon dioxide emissions, carbon sequestration of vegetation and net carbon sink efficiency. Thirdly, this paper identified the influencing factors of net carbon sink efficiency, and examined the direct and indirect effect of different factors. For this purpose, we evaluated the net carbon sink efficiency of 285 cities in China from 2012 to 2017 using a slacks-based measure model, and explored its spatial distribution characteristics, then employed a spatial Durbin model to explore the influencing factors of net carbon sink efficiency. Our main findings indicate that the net carbon sink efficiency steadily increased during the study period, whereas their spatial characteristics were "high at both ends and low in the middle" from the south to the north. There is a significant spatial autocorrelation in the net carbon sink efficiency of Chinese cities. Several kinds of measures can be applied to promote net carbon sink efficiency, such as increasing the proportion of tertiary industry, promoting economic growth, attracting foreign direct investment, increasing road area, promoting technological progress and strengthening environmental regulation. However, the increase of urban population may decrease efficiency. Nevertheless, an obvious spatial spillover effect exists in the net carbon sink efficiency of Chinese cities. The results can provide policy recommendations for the government to formulate differentiated carbon neutralization policies. [Display omitted] • The carbon sequestration is considered to calculate net carbon sink efficiency (NCSE). • The NCSE is used to discuss the carbon neutral performance of Chinese cities. • Chinese NCSE steadily increased and showed significant spatial autocorrelation. • Spatial Durbin model was adopted to study the influencing factors of NCSE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China must tackle CO 2 emission from its power sector which contributes to 40% (11.8 Gt in 2019) of its total CO 2 emission. Previous studies have shown that China has enough subsurface CO 2 storage capacity (3,145 Gt) to store 200–300 years of CO 2 emission nationwide or 600–700 years of CO 2 emission from the power sector. This paper evaluates the economic benefits of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to decarbonize China's coal-fired power plants and conducts a techno-economic analysis of four scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality in China's power sector by 2050. A model of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for coal-fired power plants equipped with CCS (CP-CCS) is used for comparing the economic competitiveness of CP-CCS with those of nuclear (NP), hydro (HP), wind (WP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants. Results show that the LCOE of CP-CCS with a CO 2 transportation distance of 100 km or less and coal price below 455 CNY/t (70.54 USD/t with the exchange rate set at 1 USD = 6.45 CNY) is less than those of NP, WP and solar PV especially for a high discount rate. The cost of coal and CO 2 transportation are the two greatest contributors to the LCOE of CP-CCS. In addition, LCOE is sensitive to operation time of the CP-CCS. Retrofitting an existing coal-fired power plant with CCS reduces the LCOE by 10–18% compared to a newly built CP-CCS. Furthermore, a scenario of gradual increase (average annual growth rate of 0.93%) in electricity generation by CP-CCS has a lower total cost than one where coal-fired power plants are aggressively replaced by wind and solar PV power plants. This is especially true if the coal price is low and CO 2 transportation distance is short. The result is savings of trillions of CNY in costs for the power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]