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The purpose of this research is to evaluate the greenhouse gas reduction potential and associated costs of integrating renewable energy technologies into Canada's oil sands. There is very limited analysis in the literature focused on the integration of renewable technology options in oil sands processes. This research addresses the gap by developing a novel framework that applies market penetration and bottom-up energy modeling techniques. A total of 27 long-term scenarios across oil sands extraction, upgrading, and electricity generation were investigated. The results show that up to 84 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions abatement (2.3% of oil sands GHG emissions) at a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost of $1.3/tCO 2 e is available under a $30/tonne carbon incentive. Scenarios with no carbon incentive resulted in 69 million tonnes less greenhouse gas emissions abatement and a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost increase of $36/tCO 2 e. Nuclear-based scenarios mitigated the largest amount of greenhouse gases and had the lowest marginal abatement costs. Geothermal energy, bioenergy, and hydropower were cost effective in certain scenarios but had limited greenhouse gas emission reduction potential. Wind and solar technologies failed to displace existing processes in the scenarios considered. The results from this study may be of value to government policy makers and industry representatives aiming to reduce greenhouse gases. • A novel framework applying market penetration and bottom-up energy modeling. • Renewable and low-carbon energy supply options for the Canadian oil sands industry. • Up to 3.7% of GHG emissions between 2019 and 2050 could be mitigated at -$6/tCO 2 e. • Nuclear energy technologies provided most of the GHG emission abatement potential. • Removing a $50 per tonne carbon price reduced GHG abatement by 89%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The industrial sector, accounting for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is among the key drivers of human-induced climate change impacts. Given this volume of emissions, the sector could play a critical role in mitigating climate change. Canada is among the top 10 global GHG emitters and its industrial sector is responsible for more than 39% of national emissions. GHG emissions from the sector increased by almost 32% between 1990 and 2017 and are expected to almost double by 2050 if no measures are taken. This paper aims to evaluate how different technical and economic factors have contributed to the increasing GHG emission trends in Canada's industrial sector between 1990 and 2014. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index was developed and implemented as the decomposition method. Results from the analysis suggest that activity level is the biggest contributor to the increase in industrial GHG emissions between 1990 and 2014, which ranged from 5 Mt CO 2 eq in 1994 to 57 Mt CO 2 eq in 2014 compared to the 1990 baseline. Increased shares of low carbon-intensive industries and fuel switching contribute to GHG emission mitigation from the sector. The structural change is responsible for GHG reductions of 1.1 and 23.4 Mt CO 2 eq in 2000 and 2014, respectively. The impacts from fuel mixs and increased shares of low-carbon fuel ranged from −1 Mt CO 2 eq in 1994 to 16 Mt CO 2 eq in 2011. Despite improvements in process-energy-intensity (i.e., the energy consumed per unit of product) in several industries, changes in economic energy intensity (energy consumed per unit of economic output) have resulted in increased GHG emissions. These changes are mainly driven by changes in the process-energy intensity of the oil sands mining sector, the largest contributor to industrial GHG emissions in Canada. Image 107490 • Historical GHG emissions trends from Canada's industrial sector were analyzed. • GHG emissions decomposition analysis was done for the years 1990–2014. • The impacts of driving factors on increasing GHG emission trends were examined. • Activity level was found to be the main driver of GHG emissions. • Fuel switching and electricity decarbonization mitigate industrial GHGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to investigate greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for the iron, gold, and potash mining sectors in Canada. These sectors have not widely accepted the available cleaner production strategies and so there is potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is important to fully realize this potential as soon as possible to support efforts to limit global warming. We conducted cost-benefit analyses of implementable greenhouse gas reduction strategies in order to inform policy and industry. Twenty-four greenhouse gas emission reduction options not yet implemented in Canada were identified following a review of current processes and operations at 102 mine sites. We developed a novel model to assess these options, integrating technology diffusion rates and long-term energy-environmental modelling. We found that the maximum greenhouse gas reduction potential can be realized through simultaneously implementing fifteen technology changes, eliminating 21 million tonnes of CO 2 eq. by 2050. Furthermore, we showed that the marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs are negative, indicating that the industry would also achieve long-term cost savings if these changes were pursued. Implementing high pressure grinding rolls in iron mining and electric and diesel hybrid haul trucks in underground gold mining and potash mining have the most favorable greenhouse gas abatement costs of −4120, −3096, −701 $/tonne, respectively. These results show that these technology changes should be pursued since both environmental benefit and cost savings would be achieved. Image 1 • A bottom-up energy model was developed for iron, gold, and potash mining sectors. • Twenty-four GHG mitigation options were identified and assessed. • Energy consumption reduction potential is 9% through 2020–2050 across the sectors. • 10% and 20% of GHG emissions could be reduced in iron and gold mining, respectively. • More than 95% of the GHG emission reductions have negative marginal abatement costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies have the potential to significantly contribute to GHG reduction. Numerous studies have evaluated the CO 2 reduction effects and economics of CCUs and CDRs; however, uncertainties in these evaluations due to various regional characterizations and future technological transitions are of high importance. In this study, four synthetic fuels (fuels produced from captured CO 2 and H 2), methanol, methane, gasoline, and diesel, were evaluated by life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA). Five representative countries with different regional characteristics were selected for the study. A bottom-up integrated LCA/TEA approach was used, involving detailed process simulations to avoid uncertainties and to evaluate future technological transitions based on direct air capture (DAC) and renewable energy. The overarching objective of this study was to provide a transparent framework with a common dataset generation methodology to determine the countries that have the advantages/disadvantages in synthetic fuel production and sale, considering the local operational parameters and large-scale introduction of DAC/renewable energy. Such multiple synthetic fuel analyses across various jurisdictions have not been conducted in previous studies. The results showed that the highest and lowest CO 2 reductions were achieved by diesel (average 6.33 kg-CO 2 ·kg−1) and methanol (average 3.43 kg-CO 2 ·kg−1), respectively, whereas the highest and lowest product costs were of gasoline (average 2.96 USD·kg−1) and methanol (average 0.82 USD·kg−1), respectively. The technological transition using DAC and renewable energy showed average CO 2 emission reductions of 47% (methanol), 99% (methane), 545% (gasoline), and 621% (diesel). Moreover, in the future, the lowest CO 2 emission reduction costs are expected in Germany for methanol and diesel, Australia for methane, and Canada for gasoline. These findings can contribute to improving international collaboration to promote CCU and CDR technologies. • Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) and CO 2 removal (CDR) technologies were evaluated for four representative synthetic fuels. • CO 2 reductions and costs were analyzed for different CCU pathways, scenarios, and countries. • Diesel fuel was found to be the most effective CCU pathway in terms of cost and potential. • Germany and Canada have economical advantage for CCU production, while U.S, has in potential. • Detailed process modeling was combined with cost and GHG emission estimation for multiple jurisdictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this study is to assess energy-use reduction strategies in extraction and upgrading of oil sands for greenhouse gas mitigation in Canada's oil sands sector. A bottom-up integrated resource-planning model for oil sands extraction and upgrading processes was developed. The model is a novel application of an energy accounting-based framework and accurately simulates energy demand and supply in the oil sands from 2007 to 2050. Thirty energy-use reduction scenarios were evaluated covering in situ extraction, surface mining, and bitumen upgrading processes. The energy savings, greenhouse gas emission mitigation, and costs associated with each scenario were determined with the model. Implementing in situ energy-use reduction measures resulted in the highest single measure greenhouse gas mitigation potential of 86 million tonnes CO 2 e at a marginal greenhouse gas abatement cost of -$91/tonne of CO 2 e by 2050. For the scenarios in surface mining and bitumen upgrading, the highest single measure greenhouse gas mitigation potentials are 17 and 16 million tonnes CO 2 e by 2050 at marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs of -$65/tonne of CO 2 e and -$21/tonne of CO 2 e, respectively. All strategies result in a negative $/tonne of CO 2 e cost, indicating a net benefit for investing in the strategies. If the strategies are implemented together, there is an ultimate potential to reduce sector-wide cumulative energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the oil sands by 8% and 7%, respectively, by 2050. Decision-makers at company or government levels can use these results to support both environmental and cost-saving initiatives. Image 1 • A bottom-up energy supply-demand model for the oil sands sector was developed. • Sector-wide energy consumption could be reduced up to 8%. • An annual average of 7.6 million tonnes of GHG emissions could be mitigated. • 65% of evaluated GHG mitigation potential is from in situ extraction. • All GHG emission mitigation strategies have negative marginal abatement costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]