Search

Abstract Guangdong is one of China's fastest developing provinces, and thus faces the challenge of reducing CO 2 emissions whilst fostering economic growth. In order to advance the goal of developing a low-carbon economy in China, this study explored influencing factors, change trends, and reduction potential in relation to CO 2 emissions in Guangdong Province using a provincial dataset covering the period 1995 to 2014. We used extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model and the technique of ridge regression in order to identify key influencing factors behind Guangdong's CO 2 emissions. We also forecasted emission trends and estimated reduction potential in the period 2015–2030. Our empirical results indicate that economic development, population growth, urbanization, fixed asset investment, and industrialization level all positively affected CO 2 emissions during the period studied, while the impacts of energy consumption structure and technology progress were found to be negative. Scenario simulations reveal that the aggregate CO 2 emissions of Guangdong Province will increase continuously up to 2030 under all of the twenty scenarios developed and tested in this study; despite this, we argue that the potential for emission reduction remains large. An optimal scenario was identified after cross-sectional comparison. Our analysis casts new light on the importance of exploring socioeconomic determinants and reduction potential in relation to emissions, in order to plan for rapidly developing regions like Guangdong. The empirical findings have significant implications for the Chinese government in implementing policy measures in order to promote low-carbon development. Highlights • The influencing factors, change trends and reduction potential of CO 2 emissions in Guangdong are explored. • Extended STIRPAT model, ridge regression and scenarios analysis are utilized. • Economic growth, population, urbanization, fix asset investment and industrialization positively affected CO 2 emissions. • Technology and energy consumption structure have a negative impact on CO 2 emissions. • An optimal scenario to promote low-carbon strategy for Guangdong government is identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A new generation of bike-sharing services is emerging in China. With this service, bikes can be unlocked and paid by using a smartphone and then picked up and left anywhere at users' convenience. The unprecedented development of dockless bike-sharing services results in considerable socioeconomic and environmental benefits but also creates new urban issues. One of the most severe issues is users' inappropriate parking behaviour. To solve this problem, electric fence (or geo-fence) policy and technology have been introduced in China to guide users to park bikes in designated zones. In this paper, we first propose a methodological framework to support electric fence planning for dockless bike-sharing services. We then apply our framework in a case study of Shanghai using a big dataset of bike trips. Results show that when the number of planned electric fences is 7,500, our electric fence plan can cover 91.8% of total parking demand. In addition, our plan can ensure that at least 95.8% of all bikes can be docked at one of planned electric fences and can help efficiently and accurately determine suitable locations for setting up planned electric fences. Highlights • We discuss electric fence (geo-fence) policy and technology used to regulate inappropriate parking behaviour. • We propose a methodological framework to support electric fence planning. • We apply our methods in a case study of Shanghai and present the results in six scenarios. • We adopt a big data approach to support our analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract China's recent rapid socioeconomic development has caused its land use patterns to evolve rapidly. Land use changes are significantly influencing carbon emissions in China. Thus, assessing carbon emissions from land use change patterns is significant for sustainable socioeconomic and ecological development. This study applied a geographic information system and data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate provincial-level carbon emission efficiency in China during 1999–2014. The results indicate that China's total carbon emissions and carbon sequestration from land use showed annual rising trends but with an increasing difference in growth. At provincial level, the highest provincial emissions were 3–4 times greater than the lowest. In addition, carbon sources increased 20 times faster than carbon sinks. The contribution of carbon emissions from construction land to total carbon emissions was greater than 90%, also, the contribution of carbon sinks from forest land to total carbon sinks was greater than 90%; Carbon emissions were most intensive in Northeast China, and they gradually decreased in a radiating pattern to the north, west, and south. Among 31 provinces, only Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Guangxi, and Heilongjiang showed effective reductions in carbon emissions. The spatial disparities in carbon emissions were likely due to differences in technological efficiency and scale of operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial structures in China's resource-based cities are unlikely to materially change in the short term, and the large quantities of air pollutants emitted by residents' energy consumption cause serious air pollution. It is therefore urgently required to frame policies that can be adopted to realize the sustainable development of a social economy under the constraint of atmospheric environment in China's resource-based cities. In this paper, we develop a dynamic optimization model by using input–output analysis with gross regional product (GRP) maximization as the objective function. This model contains three submodels: the socioeconomic submodel, atmo-environmental control submodel, and energy submodel. The model is applied to Tangshan City, a typical resource-based industrial city, to conduct a dynamic simulation with 13 terms from 2013 to 2025 and based on the data in 2012. The goal for the model operation is to realize the optimal development of a social economy under the restrain of certain emission levels of air pollutants. This goal is achieved by introducing a comprehensive policy that includes a residential clean energy promotion policy and an industry emission reduction policy, and industrial restructuring also plays a role by industrial subsidies. The simulation results demonstrate that sulfur dioxide ( S O 2 ) and nitrogen oxides ( N O x ) can be reduced by 53% and 45%, respectively, in Tangshan City in 2025 compared with their values in 2012 with an annual GRP growth rate of 6.2%. The total output of the clean energy in the simulation period is 41.4 million tons of standard coal. The goal of improving the atmospheric environment and sustainable development of social economies in resource-based cities can be achieved by coordinating the relationship among economic development, atmospheric environmental protection, and energy consumption through a dynamic optimization model with a comprehensive policy and industrial restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan has achieved the decoupling of economic growth from air-pollutant emissions since the rapid decrease in air-pollutant emissions in the 1970s and the further-abatement period. Air-pollutant emissions also decreased in China recently. We analyzed the factors driving the changes in air-pollutant emission, which enabled us to identify each factor's contribution and compare the further-abatement period in Japan with the primary reduction stage in China. This study performed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index analysis to decompose the industrial-emission changes (SO 2 and NO x ) in Japan and China into the socioeconomic factors that drive these changes. Results showed that changes in these factors, especially energy intensity and economic level, contributed differently to the emission reduction in Japan and China because the two countries differed in emission-reduction periods. The decline in emission coefficient, measured by emissions per unit of energy consumption, was the most important contributor to emission reduction in Japan. The other factors did not exert considerable influence. However, energy intensity decrease in China significantly contributed to emission reduction besides emission coefficient, and economic growth had a substantial negative impact on emission reduction. Differences also appeared in contributions from the industrial and economic structure between the two countries. Some factors may have reached their limitation after the rapid reduction period and thus contributed less significantly in the further-abatement period. A tendency toward a similar condition to Japan was also observed in some factorial contributions in China. From a sectoral perspective, emission change was distributed evenly among sectors in Japan than in China. Based on the comparison between the two countries and the “new normal” that China is experiencing, we provided insights for China for further abating industrial air-pollutant emissions in succeeding years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surge in energy consumption and CO 2 (carbon dioxide) emissions is exacerbating global warming. The Chinese government has promised to reduce CO 2 emission by 60%–65% per unit of GDP over the 2005 level by around 2030. Analyzing the factors influencing CO 2 emissions is one of the key aspects involved in effectively reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we add climatic factors based on socio-economic factors, and adopt the extended STIRPAT model to investigate the mechanism driving emissions by the co-action of natural and socio-economic factors. The results show that the 1995–2014 emissions in China's Zhejiang province had an upward trend with growth rates varying between intermediate periods. The order of the factors' elasticity coefficients is urbanization rate (0.181) > GDP per capita (0.180) > population (0.177) > energy intensity (0.170) > trade openness (0.170) > cooling degree days (0.127) > mean temperature anomaly (0.116). Economic development and urbanization were the main factors promoting CO 2 emissions in 1996–1999, while economic development and foreign trade were the main factors in 2000–2014. Policy makers should pay more attention to keeping a healthy pace of economic development, introducing more low energy consumption and low pollution enterprises and encouraging technological innovation. Improving the quality of urbanization, guiding a sustainable lifestyle, adjusting the structure of foreign trade and curbing energy intensity are also expected to reduce emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of quality of life (QoL) cannot be based on a single criterion because QoL includes social, economic, environmental, and geographic metrics, as well as people's perceptions of the sustainability of an area. Quantification and spatial visualization of QoL allows policymakers to determine the effects of their policies and strategies on a city's overall environment. We develop a subjective and objective composite assessment of QoL, which is achieved by integrating socioeconomic and geo-physical condition with local people's perceptions of the importance of objectively measured attributes of city life. Shanghai, China's largest city, is selected as a case study. We find that QoL in Shanghai has steadily improved during the last 20 years, with relatively higher QoL scores in the city center and sub-center regions. Also, the improvements in social environment and transport accessibility have played dominant roles in contributing to QoL enhancement. Results of such composite assessment could be used to plan the future layout of city infrastructure, allocation of resources, or even the locations of a community's amenities and services, in an effective manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources are of fundamental significance as the basis of human life, economy, and society. Especially as the essential socioeconomic factors, water resources transferred through merchandise trade of China's mega-cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing) play an increasingly crucial role in China's regional water use allocation. On the whole, the four municipalities in China are all embodied water recipients along supply chains. However, it is found that embodied water transfers (including direct and indirect water) related to these mega-cities have exacerbated the regional water use imbalance and affected the water use efficiency of China as a whole to some extent. In consideration of the increasing trading exchanges among cities and regions, ignoring water transfers embodied in trades will lead to failure in depicting actual water demands. In such a context, the embodied water demands and transfers of China's municipalities are analyzed systematically, and the water use efficiencies and allocation imbalance are assessed for the first time. Outcomes of this study through systems accounting of water use profiles of China's mega-cities can be strong supports for reasonable allocation and utilization of China's water resources, showing important implications for water pressure mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Office buildings are now responsible for a large portion of the durable building stock's total energy consumption and play a key role in determining urban sustainability. Based on remote sensing and GIS data as well as statistical analysis methods, we found that building construction characteristics, socio-economic conditions, climate conditions, and microclimate contributed 32.27%, 18.37%, 13.84%, and 10.66%, respectively, to office building energy carbon emissions in China. Floor area, number of energy consumers, regional scientific investment, and heating degree days had positive relationships with office energy usages. Among these, the number of energy consumers had the greatest effect on OEC and heating degree day had the least effect. Technological progress may reduce energy demand, but the energy waste of office workers in buildings that adopt more energy-saving appliance, or admire for more comfortable temperature environment could offset these savings. Most of the taller buildings surveyed were constructed recently and equipped with energy-saving appliances, but these savings may have been offset by greater use of energy associated with higher income level, and greater support for energy spending from the government. These results provide baseline information for designing emission reductions programs and further studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding spatiotemporal urbanization is one of the key questions related to sustainable urbanization in the drylands of northern China (DNC). However, urban expansion in the DNC has not been quantified and assessed effectively due to a lack of reliable data and methods. In this paper, we investigate urban expansion in the DNC at multiple scales, ranging from the whole region to four dryland subtypes, and six urban agglomerations in the DNC from 1992 to 2015. We also simulate urban expansion in the DNC from 2015 to 2050 by coupling the scenario framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Despite of the uncertainty in the research, our findings provide useful insight into the past and the future urban expansion in the DNC. The results indicate that the urban land in the DNC expanded rapidly from 4110 km 2 in 1992 to 20,969 km 2 in 2015. Furthermore, the urban land in the DNC will continue to expand from 20,969 km 2 to 22,987–36,622 km 2 by 2040, with an annual growth of 80.72–403.48 km 2 under all SSPs. Thus, it is suggested that effective measures are urgently needed to facilitate sustainable urban development in the DNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on analysis of the wetland water resources system in Beijing city, this paper established a system dynamics (SD) model for the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) in Beijing city. Using a computer simulation of the SD model, the variation trends from 2006 to 2030 in population, economy, water supply and demand, and pressure on the water environment were derived for Beijing, from which 12 core variables of the model were chosen as the WRCC evaluation indices. Five cases were designed in this study. The results indicate that the WRCC will continue to decline annually by following the status quo (Case 1), since the water environment will have difficulty in supporting the long-term social and economic development of Beijing. The status quo of Beijing’s socioeconomic development is therefore not sustainable. In order to address this problem, five optimization cases were put forward to improve the WRCC, and the carrying capacities and trends of the cases were compared and analyzed. Under Case 5, the WRCC (0.8 in 2030) will increase by 50%, compared to that in Case 1 (0.4 in 2030), while the water supply and demand ratio will be 20% higher than the average, and the water pollution will be 35% lower than the average in 2030. According to the analysis results, in order to guarantee sustainable utilization of water resources and social economy development in Beijing, it is necessary to increase water saving policies and pollution control investment in the future. Corresponding measures will need to be taken to ensure the implementation of water saving strategies to improve the water environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China produces a huge amount of CO 2 emissions that need to be reduced to comply with international commitments. Identifying the driving factors is critical for achieving mitigation targets and transiting toward a low-carbon economy in China. This study is one of the first few attempts to apply panel data and spatial econometrics models to analyze the spatial dependence of province-level CO 2 emission intensity and the economic drivers of such emissions. First, we conducted a systematical review of the development of spatial econometrics. Second, we generated a panel data set about energy and socioeconomic development of 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2005 to 2012. Next, we chose the most appropriate model to explain the predominant factors of energy-related CO 2 emissions based on a series of tests of the spatial econometrics models. The results suggested that technology improvement, adjustment of industrial and energy structures, and environmentally friendly behaviors and patterns of consumption of habitants play an important role in CO 2 emissions mitigation. The results also revealed that CO 2 emissions had strong spatial spillover effects, which indicate that policies adopted in one province will affect policy-making in neighboring provinces, implying that provinces need take combined action to balance climate change mitigation and economic policy goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is the largest emitter of carbon emissions in the world. In this paper, we present an Integrated Model of Economy and Climate (IMEC), an optimization model based on the input-output model. The model is designed to assess the tradeoff between emission deceleration and economic growth. Given that China's projected average growth rate will exceed 5% over the next two decades, we find that China may reach its peak CO 2 emissions levels by 2026. According to this scenario, China's carbon emissions will peak at 11.20 Gt in 2026 and will then decline to 10.84 Gt in 2030. Accordingly, approximately 22 Gt of CO 2 will be removed from 2015 to 2035 relative to the scenario wherein China's CO 2 emissions peak in 2030. While this earlier peaking of carbon emissions will result in a decline in China's GDP, several sectors, such as Machinery and Education, will benefit. In order to reach peak CO 2 emissions by 2026, China needs to reduce its annual GDP growth rate to less than 4.5% by 2030 and decrease energy and carbon intensity levels by 43% and 45%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, Japan and South Korea are the important East Asian countries and being paid intensive attentions to their economic miracle, while their environmental performance is less discussed together. These three countries are in different level of developmental stages from emerging economy to matured developed economy. We hereby provide a laboratory idea to investigate the socio-economic metabolism under typical development stages, so that enlightenment on global resource management policy making can be made. This study is based on a long-time series data on the material flow analysis on China, South Korea and Japan, applied with up-to date standardized methodologies of material flow accounting. Material flows, resource productivity data, indicators as well as Environmental Kuznets Curve are presented and compared from 1970 to 2008. Driving forces for the material flow change were further investigated with IPAT approach. Obvious differences of resource efficiency, productivity and consumption patterns were verified. Japan presented the trend of dematerialization and technology effects made significant contribution; China was highlighted with surging resource consumption stage, mainly driven by the economic and population factors, even though the resource efficiency was significantly enhanced in the past three decades. South Korea presented the combined features of China and Japan in different stages. Based on the analytical results, information and insights behind results, like the industrial structure, value chain position in the global supply-demand chain and how they had impacts on the resource efficiency and productivity were discussed in-depth. The research results provide critical insights to future effective and efficient global resource management policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Substance flow analysis was used to develop a stock and flow model that was applied to time-series data from 1984 to 2008 to explore the correlation between change traits of anthropogenic phosphorus (P) metabolism in China and socioeconomic variables, quantify the accumulation of P in natural reservoirs and search for man-made stocks with the greatest potential for recovering P resources. The results showed that a total of 154.5 Tg P was extracted in China, but 80.5% was lost to natural water and soil, indicating the unsustainability of societal P metabolism. Urbanization, improved standards of living and population growth are responsible for the rising magnitudes of the P flows related to ore extraction, use and waste generation and the declining ratio of recycled P wastes, while inefficient small mines and corresponding restrictive policies contributed to the large fluctuation in ore extraction and waste generation in 2001–2008. Financial and policy support, combined with technological advances, strongly promoted the progress of the phosphate fertilizer industry in China, which transformed the country from a net importer into a net exporter of P materials after 2000. Three anthropogenic stocks were formed: 38.3 Tg P in agricultural soil, 19.0 Tg P in natural water and 105.3 Tg in natural soil. The last stock included 41.4 Tg P in mining wastes abandoned by small mines, which will be valuable human-induced mines for the secondary recovery of P resources in the future. Model uncertainties are analyzed, and conclusions and suggestions are presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The high levels of phosphorus (P) occurring through human activities contribute to the eutrophication. Hence, for mitigating the eutrophication, it is important to understand the quantity of P flows of the different components of local socioeconomic ecosystems, and how the components interlink. In this study, the static substance flow analysis (SFA) model was used to determine the P flows in the socioeconomic ecosystem of Feixi County in 2008, which has typical features of central China. Based on the model, the P flows of six subsystems were identified and quantified: product manufacturing, crop farming, large-scale breeding, domestic breeding, rural consumption and urban consumption. The data and parameters, required for the calculation of P flows in the study, were obtained from official statistical database, questionnaires, face to face interviews and published literature. The study showed that the three largest P flows were imports to the large-scale breeding subsystem, P loss into water of crop farming subsystem, and excrement of large-scale livestock applied to farmland. Moreover, the total amount of P drained from Feixi to the surrounding water environment was mostly originated from the crop farming and large-scale breeding subsystems. Furthermore, due to the low efficiency in P recycling and reuse recorded in this study and the high levels of eutrophication caused by P flows in Feixi, corresponding environmental management strategies to reduce P loss to surrounding water environment have been suggested, which include reducing the application of chemical fertilizers, applying the livestock excrement effectively for planting, substituting the crop feed for the chemical feed, improving the infrastructure for wastes disposal of breeding enterprises, developing livestock manure for other use, purchasing P-chemical materials and products with lower P-containing rate, constructing waste treatment facilities, investing and researching for developing technology on eutrophication reduction, etc. Finally, the quantifiable science-based methods used in this study may be applied toward improving the ecological management efficiency of cities/counties and water quality of the surrounding area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Using China’s environmental statistical data set for the period 2001–2006, this paper presents an extensive empirical analysis of the relationships among citizens’ environmental complaints, pollution intensities, and socio-economic characteristics. We found that exposure to harmful pollutants significantly influence people’s complaint behaviors because higher densities of chemical oxygen demand and SO2 emissions are correlated with a higher incidence of citizen’s complaints of water pollution and air pollution, respectively. In terms of demographical variables, household income has significantly positive impacts on the likelihood of citizens lodging environmental complaints regarding air, water, and solid waste pollution. Citizens in municipality and coastal regions tend to complain more than those in interior regions. Our results support the view that environmental complaints can provide valuable information for regulators to efficiently allocate inspection resources; however, the information may be noisy since complaints are more likely to arise from wealthier and more-educated regions. In order to mitigate this problem, we argue that it may be helpful to strengthen basic education in poorer regions and to encourage environmental information disclosure for attracting more people’s attention to pollution problems. In addition, regular inspection capabilities in poor and seriously polluted regions must be enhanced for investigating regulatory violation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Discrete choice theory has been shown to be a viable way to study individual preferences for resource development. However, only a limited amount of literature assesses the effect of culture, socio-economic, historical, and regulatory factors on the classification of factors that are important to individual preferences for resource development used in designing valid discrete choice experiments. This work seeks to assess differences in the levels of importance among the determinants of public acceptance of mining projects due to differences in cultural, regulatory, socio-economic, and historical contexts. This will be accomplished by comparing the levels of importance as reported by respondents in the United States, China and Turkey. We used the same survey in the three countries to: (1) validate in China and Turkey the classification of mining project characteristics identified by previous research in the United States; (2) verify the key demographic factors that can be used to explain individual preferences relating to project characteristics in China and Turkey; and (3) compare the differences between attitudes of respondents from mining communities in the United States, China and Turkey. The median ranking of all 16 project characteristics was higher than the midpoint ranking (neither important nor unimportant), verifying that this classification of factors were valid in the three countries. Age, gender, income, education, and number of children were related to the respondents' rankings of the importance of the mining project characteristics. We observed several differences in the rankings that can be attributed to the differences in culture, socio-economics, and historical and regulatory context and found that the level of development and national culture played a moderating role in the effect of demographics on the respondents' rankings. These results provide insights for those designing discrete choice experiments and other instruments for facilitating mining community engagement in cross-cultural settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]