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Interannual fluctuations in average summertime temperatures across the western United States are captured by a leading empirical orthogonal function that explains over 50% of the total observed variance. In this paper, we explain the origins of this pattern of interannual temperature variability by examining soil moisture–temperature coupling that acts across seasons in observations and climate models. We find that a characteristic pattern of coupled temperature–soil moisture climate variability accounts for 34% of the total observed variance in summertime temperature across the region. This pattern is reproduced in state-of-the-art global climate models, where experiments that eliminate soil moisture variability reduce summertime average temperature variance by a factor of 3 on average. We use an idealized model of the coupled atmospheric boundary layer and underlying land surface to demonstrate that feedbacks between soil moisture, boundary layer relative humidity, and precipitation can explain the observed relations between springtime soil moisture and summertime temperature. Our results suggest that antecedent soil moisture conditions and subsequent land–atmosphere interactions play an important role in interannual summertime temperature variability in the western United States; soil moisture variations cause distal temperature anomalies and impart predictability at time scales longer than one season. Our results indicate that 40% of the observed warming trend across the western United States since 1981 has been driven by wintertime precipitation trends in the U.S. southwest. Significance Statement: Year-to-year fluctuations in summertime temperatures have a large impact on drought, wildfire, and extreme heat across the Western United States. We find strong evidence that soil moisture deficits in the preceding spring may be the primary driver of higher-than-average summer temperatures in this region. Our results suggest that memory in the water cycle may lead to greater predictability in the climate system from season to season and that trends in southwest precipitation have exerted a considerable influence on observed warming over the past 40 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coupling of the land with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) on diurnal time scales is critical to regulating the strength of the connection between soil moisture and precipitation. To improve understanding of land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions, recent studies have focused on the development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process level. In this paper, the authors apply a suite of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) metrics to modern reanalysis (RA) products and observations during a 17-yr period over the U.S. southern Great Plains. Specifically, a range of diagnostics exploring the links between soil moisture, evaporation, PBL height, temperature, humidity, and precipitation is applied to the summertime monthly mean diurnal cycles of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Results show that CFSR is the driest and MERRA the wettest of the three RAs in terms of overall surface-PBL coupling. When compared against observations, CFSR has a significant dry bias that impacts all components of the land-PBL system. CFSR and NARR are more similar in terms of PBL dynamics and response to dry and wet extremes, while MERRA is more constrained in terms of evaporation and PBL variability. Each RA has a unique land-PBL coupling that has implications for downstream impacts on the diurnal cycle of PBL evolution, clouds, convection, and precipitation as well as representation of extremes and drought. As a result, caution should be used when treating RAs as truth in terms of their water and energy cycle processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persistent drought events that cause serious damage to the economy and environment are usually intensified by the feedback between the land surface and atmosphere. Therefore, reasonably modeling land–atmosphere coupling is critical for skillful prediction of persistent droughts. However, most high-resolution regional climate modeling has focused on the amplification effect of land–atmosphere coupling on local anticyclonic circulation anomalies, while less attention has been paid to the nonlocal influence through altering large-scale atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate how the antecedent land–atmosphere coupling over the area south of Lake Baikal (ASLB) influences the drought events occurring over its downstream region [i.e., Northeast China (NEC)] by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and a linear baroclinic model (LBM). When the ASLB region is artificially forced to be wet in the WRF simulations during March–May, the surface sensible heating is weakened and results in a cooling anomaly in low level atmosphere during May–July. Consequently, the anticyclonic circulation anomalies over ASLB and NEC are weakened, and the severity of NEC drought during May–July cannot be captured due to the upstream wetting in March–May. In the LBM experiments, idealized atmospheric heating anomaly that mimics the diabatic heating associated with surface wetness is imposed over ASLB, and the quasi-steady response pattern of 500-hPa geopotential height to the upstream wetting is highly consistent with that in the WRF simulation. In addition, the lower-level heating instead of the upper-level cooling makes a major contribution to the high pressure anomaly over NEC. This study implies the critical role of modeling upstream land–atmosphere coupling in capturing downstream persistent droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northeast China (NEC) suffered a severe drought that persisted from March to July of 2017 with profound impacts on agriculture and society, raising an urgent need to understand the mechanism for persistent droughts over midlatitudes. Previous drought mechanism studies focused on either large-scale teleconnections or local land–atmosphere coupling, while less attention was paid to their synergistic effects on drought persistence. Here we show that the 2017 NEC drought was triggered by a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in March, and maintained by the anticyclone over the area south to Lake Baikal (ASLB) through a quasi-stationary Rossby wave in April–July, accompanied by sinking motion and north wind anomaly. By using a land–atmosphere coupling index based on the persistence of positive feedbacks between the boundary layer and land surface, we find that the coupling states over NEC and ASLB shifted from a wet coupling in March to a persistently strengthened dry coupling in April–July. Over ASLB, the dry coupling and sinking motion increased surface sensible heat, decreased cloud cover, and weakened longwave absorption, resulting in a diabatic heating anomaly in the lower atmosphere and a diabatic cooling anomaly in the upper atmosphere. This anomalous vertical heating profile led to a negative anomaly of potential vorticity at low levels, indicating that the land–atmosphere coupling had a phase-lock effect on the Rossby wave train originating from upstream areas, and therefore maintained the NEC drought over downstream regions. Our study suggests that an upstream quasi-stationary wave pattern strengthened by land–atmosphere coupling should be considered in diagnosing persistent droughts, especially over northern midlatitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]