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Groundwater and climate interact in a two-way manner. Precipitation ultimately controls groundwater recharge and, conversely, groundwater may influence climate through evapotranspiration. Yet very few global climate models or Earth system models actually simulate groundwater flows. And while the expected impacts of climate change on groundwater resources are the subject of a growing concern, global-scale groundwater–climate feedbacks have received very little attention so far. Here we show that the integration of unconfined aquifers in a global climate model can regionally affect the climate change signal on temperatures and precipitation. We assess the impact of groundwater under preindustrial and 4xCO2 conditions (after climate stabilization). In both cases, we find that groundwater has a cooling and a wetting effect in certain regions of the world. In eastern Europe, both these impacts are stronger in the warmer climate (4xCO2 forcing) where the presence of groundwater reduces the frequency of summer heatwaves by 40%, compared to a 15% reduction in the preindustrial world. This work constitutes one of the very first global assessments of the potential feedbacks of groundwater on climate change. Our results support the idea that groundwater should be represented in global climate models and Earth system models, as it does indeed play an active role in the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts strong powerful thermal forcing, which plays a vital role in influencing weather–climate variations in Asia and even the Northern Hemisphere. However, the causes of thermal variation over the TP have not been fully revealed. Here, the role of winter soil moisture (SM) in subsequent summer thermal anomalies on the TP was investigated through multisource datasets for the period 1979–2014. Results indicate a significant positive relationship (r = 0.52) between winter SM and subsequent summer-mean surface air temperature (SAT). Further investigations show that more (less) winter SM results in abundant (deficient) atmospheric water vapor in subsequent summer owing to its persistence. Furthermore, Earth’s surface energy budget equation confirms that strengthened (weakened) surface downward longwave radiation caused by increased (decreased) water vapor is the dominant factor leading to SAT variations, even more significant for nocturnal SAT. The winter SM–atmospheric temperature positive relationship can extend from the surface to 200 hPa over the TP. In addition, the enhanced (weakened) atmospheric latent heat release associated with increased (decreased) water vapor content may be another important factor contributing to changes in atmospheric temperatures over the TP. Therefore, our results contribute to a better understanding of the effect of land–surface processes on thermal anomalies over the TP. Significance Statement Understanding the causes of thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for weather and climate variations, but the role of winter soil moisture (SM) in subsequent summer thermal effects is largely unknown. This study investigated the relationship between winter SM and thermal anomalies in subsequent summers on the TP. Results show that the above (below)-normal winter SM will cause warm (cold) atmospheric temperatures in the subsequent summer. The above (below)-normal winter SM anomalies bring increased (decreased) atmospheric water vapor in summer owing to its persistence, resulting in strengthened (weakened) downward longwave radiation and atmospheric latent heat release to heat (cool) the atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a major natural hazard with far-reaching social, economic, and environmental impacts whose characteristics are highly interdependent across different spatial and temporal scales. Traditional global warming impact assessments on drought at the global scale have, however, taken into account only one drought characteristic at a time, likely leading to an underestimation of the overall impact. Here, we perform a trivariate analysis of changes in drought conditions at 1.5°, 2°, and 3°C global warming levels using 25 CMIP6 GCMs. Drought properties are characterized by the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). The future joint return periods of droughts historically associated with 10-, 20-, and 30-yr return periods are computed under the warming levels using copula functions considering drought duration, peak, and severity. Our comparative assessments of global warming impact on drought properties between univariate and trivariate analyses corroborate the substantial underestimation of the impact by the univariate analysis. The trivariate analysis shows that around 63%–91% of the global land will be subject to more recurrent droughts, while the percentage of the land reduces to 41%–56% for the univariate analysis. The difference between the univariate and trivariate analyses enlarges with global warming levels and the extremity of drought events. Based on the trivariate analysis, a 30-yr drought would become at least threefold more recurrent in 11%, 15%, and 20% of the global land at 1.5°, 2°, and 3°C warming levels, respectively, but the univariate analysis could not reach such large increases in drought conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is projected to become more severe and widespread as global warming continues in the twenty-first century, but hydroclimatic changes and their drivers are not well examined in the latest projections from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here, precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 25 CMIP6 models, together with self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index with Penman–Monteith potential evapotranspiration (scPDSIpm), are analyzed to quantify hydroclimatic and drought changes in the twenty-first century and the underlying causes. Results confirm consistent drying in these hydroclimatic metrics across most of the Americas (including the Amazon), Europe and the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, and Australia, although the drying magnitude differs, with the drying being more severe and widespread in surface SM than in total SM. Global drought frequency based on surface SM and scPDSIpm increases by ∼25%–100% (50%–200%) under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario in the twenty-first century together with large increases in drought duration and areas, which result from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions of SM and scPDSIpm, while the R-based drought changes are relatively small. Changes in both P and E contribute to the SM change, whereas scPDSIpm decreases result from ubiquitous PET increases and P decreases over subtropical areas. The R changes are determined primarily by P changes, while the PET change explains most of the E increase. Intermodel spreads in surface SM and R changes are large, leading to large uncertainties in the drought projections. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Drought may become more severe and widespread under greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced global warming in the twenty-first century based on model projections. However, there are still large uncertainties in projected future drought changes, especially regarding the extent to which drought changes depend on drought indices and the future emissions scenarios analyzed. The latest projections from CMIP6 models reaffirm the widespread drying and increases in agricultural drought by up to 200% over most of the Americas (including the Amazon), Europe and the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and Australia under moderate-to-high emissions scenarios in the twenty-first century, despite large uncertainties in individual projections partly due to internal variability. Ubiquitous increases in atmospheric demand for moisture under rising temperatures and precipitation decreases over many subtropical regions are the main driver of the projected drying and drought increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future projections of precipitation change over tropical land are often enhanced by vegetation responses to CO2 forcing in Earth system models. Projected decreases in rainfall over the Amazon basin and increases over the Maritime Continent are both stronger when plant physiological changes are modeled than if these changes are neglected, but the reasons for this amplification remain unclear. The responses of vegetation to increasing CO2 levels are complex and uncertain, including possible decreases in stomatal conductance and increases in leaf area index due to CO2 fertilization. Our results from an idealized atmospheric general circulation model show that the amplification of rainfall changes occurs even when we use a simplified vegetation parameterization based solely on CO2-driven decreases in stomatal conductance, indicating that this mechanism plays a key role in complex model projections. Based on simulations with rectangular continents we find that reducing terrestrial evaporation to zero with increasing CO2 notably leads to enhanced rainfall over a narrow island. Strong heating and ascent over the island trigger moisture advection from the surrounding ocean. In contrast, over larger continents rainfall depends on continental evaporation. Simulations with two rectangular continents representing South America and Africa reveal that the stronger decrease in rainfall over the Amazon basin seen in Earth system models is due to a combination of local and remote effects, which are fundamentally connected to South America's size and its location with respect to Africa. The response of tropical rainfall to changes in evapotranspiration is thus connected to size and configuration of the continents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]