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The relative importance of the processes responsible for the annual cycle in the upper-ocean heat content in the Peru Current, in the southeastern tropical Pacific, was diagnosed from an oceanic analysis dataset. It was found that the annual cycle of heat content is forced mainly by insolation. However, the ocean dynamical processes play an important role in producing different regional budget characteristics. In a band 500 km from the coast of Peru, the annual heat content changes in this region are relatively large and can be approximated as sea surface temperature (SST) changes in a fixed-depth mixed layer. The annual cycle of the albedo associated with low-level clouds enhances the annual cycle in insolation, which explains the relatively strong annual cycle of heat content. These clouds, to a large extent, act as a feedback to SST, but a small additional forcing, which is proposed to be cold air advection in this paper, is needed to explain the fact that the maximum cloudiness leads the lowest SST by around a month. Ocean dynamics is important closer to the coast, where upwelling acts partly as damping of the heat content changes and forces it to peak earlier than farther offshore. In a band farther to the southwest, locally wind-forced thermocline motions, which become shallower (deeper) in the warm (cool) season, partially cancel the effect of net surface heat fluxes, whose annual cycle is comparable to that in the region previously mentioned, producing a relatively small annual cycle of heat content. The local forcing appears to be associated with the annual meridional displacements of the South Pacific anticyclone. The annual cycle in SST is also relatively small, which is probably due to the changes in the temperature of the water entrained into the mixed layer associated with the thermocline motions, but also to a mixed layer deeper than that closer to the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming projections show an anomalous temperature increase both at the Arctic surface and at lower latitudes in the upper troposphere. The Arctic amplification decreases the meridional temperature gradient, and simultaneously decreases static stability. These changes in the meridional temperature gradient and in the static stability have opposing effects on baroclinicity. The temperature increase at the upper tropospheric lower latitudes tends to increase the meridional temperature gradient and simultaneously increase static stability, which have opposing effects on baroclinicity as well. In this study, a dry idealized general circulation model with a modified Newtonian cooling scheme, which allows any chosen zonally symmetric temperature distribution to be simulated, is used to study the effect of Arctic amplification and lower-latitude upper-level warming on eddy activity. Due to the interplay between the static stability and meridional temperature gradient on atmospheric baroclinicity changes, and their opposing effect on atmospheric baroclinicity, it is found that both the Arctic amplification and lower-latitude upper-level warming could potentially lead to both decreases and increases in eddy activity, depending on the exact prescribed temperature modifications. Therefore, to understand the effect of global warming–like temperature trends on eddy activity, the zonally symmetric global warming temperature projections from state-of-the-art models are simulated. It is found that the eddy kinetic energy changes are dominated by the lower-latitude upper-level warming, which tends to weaken the eddy kinetic energy due to increased static stability. On the other hand, the eddy heat flux changes are dominated by the Arctic amplification, which tends to weaken the eddy heat flux at the lower levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple equations are developed to express regional climate changes for the twenty-first century and associated uncertainty in terms of the global temperature change (GTC) without a dependence on the underlying emission pathways. The equations are applied to regional temperature and precipitation changes over different regions of the world, and relevant parameters are calculated using the latest multimodel ensemble of global climate change simulations. Examples are also shown of how to use the equations to develop probability density functions (PDFs) of regional climate change based on PDFs of GTC. The main advantage of these equations is that they can be used to estimate regional changes from GTC obtained either from simple and intermediate complexity models or from target CO2 stabilization concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]