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Variability in soil moisture has implications for regional terrestrial environments under a warming climate. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variability in the intra-annual persistence of soil moisture in China using the fifthgeneration reanalysis dataset by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the period 1979-2018. The results show that in China, the mean intra-annual persistence in the humid to arid zones increased from 60 to 115 days in the lower layer but decreased from 19 to 13 days and from 25 to 14 days in the upper and root layers, respectively. However, these changes were strongly attenuated in extremely dry and wet regions due to the scarcity of soil moisture anomalies. Large changes in persistence occurred in the lower soil layer in dryland areas, with a mean difference of up to 40 days between the 2010s and the 1980s. Overall increasing trends dominated the large-scale spatial features, despite regional decreases in the eastern arid zone and the North and Northeast China plains. In the root layer, the two plains experienced an expanded decrease while on the Tibetan Plateau it was dominated by decadal variability. These contrasting changes between the lower and root layers along the periphery of the transition zone was a reflection of the enhanced soil hydrological cycle in the root layer. The enhanced persistence in drylands lower layer is an indication of the intensified impacts of soil moisture anomalies (e.g., droughts) on terrestrial water cycle. These findings may help the understanding of climate change impacts on terrestrial environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate classification aims to divide a given region into distinct groups on the basis of meteorological variables, and it has important applications in fields such as agriculture and buildings. In this paper, we propose a novel spectral clustering–based method to partition 661 meteorological stations in China into several zones. First, the correlations are analyzed among five meteorological variables: daily average temperature, average relative humidity, sunshine hours, diurnal temperature range, and atmospheric pressure. The resulting weak linear correlation supports the classification under multiple views. Next, a similarity matrix/graph is constructed by combining the advantages of k-nearest-neighbor and sparse subspace representation. The blocking effect of the similarity matrix confirms the rationality of the classification. Then, we consider respectively the climate classification under a single view and multiple views. For the single view, atmospheric pressure has the highest imbalance degree, and sunshine hours and diurnal temperature range have the strongest classification consistency. The consistency rates are improved evidently in a multiple-view situation. Afterward, we propose a determining method for the number of clusters and make a sensitivity analysis on various parameters. Finally, we provide a further statistical analysis on the classification results and compare the consistency with another climate dataset. All experimental results show that the proposed classification method is feasible and effective in the climate zoning of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weighting models according to their performance has been used to produce multimodel climate change projections. But the added value of model weighting for future projection is not always examined. Here we apply an imperfect model framework to evaluate the added value of model weighting in projecting summer temperature changes over China. Members of large-ensemble simulations by three climate models of different climate sensitivities are used as pseudo-observations for the past and the future. Performance of the models participating in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated against the pseudo-observations based on simulated historical climatology and trends in global, regional, and local temperatures to determine the model weights for future projection. The weighted projections are then compared with the pseudo-observations in the future period. We find that regional trend as a metric of model performance yields generally better skill for future projection, while past climatology as performance metric does not lead to a significant improvement to projection. Trend at the grid-box scale is also not a good performance indicator as small-scale trend is highly uncertain. For the model weighting to be effective, the metric for evaluating the model's performance must be relatable to future changes, with the response signal separable from internal variability. Projected summer warming based on model weighting is similar to that of unweighted projection but the 5th–95th-percentile uncertainty range of the weighted projection is 38% smaller with the reduction mainly in the upper bound, with the largest reduction appearing in southeast China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diurnal temperature range (DTR) as measured by the difference between daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures is of great importance to human health, ecology, and agriculture. The link of its long-term change to anthropogenic forcing is still unclear. This study shows evidence of human influence on long-term changes in DTR over the globe, five continents, and China during the past century (1901–2014). Using multiple observational datasets, we find a general decrease in the DTR over most of the global land since 1901, especially after the mid-1950s. Changes in DTR are due to different warming rates of Tmax and Tmin in response to external forcings. The climate models that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) generally reproduce most of the changes in DTR, along with those in Tmax and Tmin. The models have underestimated the observed changes in DTR, however. A formal detection and attribution analysis shows that the anthropogenic forcing signal, including both greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions but dominated by the greenhouse gas emissions, is the main driver for these changes. The anthropogenic aerosol signal can be detected in Tmax and Tmin but not in DTR during the period of 1901–2014 over the globe and most continents. These indicate the observed decrease in DTR is not a simple response to anthropogenic aerosol emission. The natural signal is negligible in almost all the cases. Globally, anthropogenic influence is estimated to explain more than 90% of the observed changes in the three variables. In China, human influence is also clearly detected, although model simulated results on the regional scale have larger deviation. Significance Statement: The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is of great importance in many areas. We compare multiple observational datasets with the simulations by climate models that participated in the latest phase (phase 6) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), finding evidence of human influence on long-term changes in DTR over the past century (1901–2014) and robust evidence for the period since the early 1950s. The decrease in DTR as seen in the observational dataset is caused by different warming rates of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature in response to anthropogenic forcing, including both greenhouse gases and aerosols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation in China is controlled by a combination of multiple weather systems and is susceptible to their spatiotemporal variability under climate warming. Based on the daily precipitation dataset developed by the China Meteorological Administration and ERA5 6-hourly data from 1979 to 2018, we detected tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, and fronts affecting mainland China of an altitude less than 1500 m using objective methods and identified their individually associated precipitation. We quantified climatological characteristics of precipitation associated with these three meteorological causes and their proportion of precipitation totals, and evaluated their relative contribution to change in precipitation. Results show that precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCP), extratropical cyclones (ETCP), and fronts (FRTP) accounted for 3.0%, 21.2%, and 20.4% of the total precipitation in China, and constituted the largest percentage in August, June, and January, respectively. The total proportion of these three types of precipitation exceeded 50% in more than 55% of China's regions. The high-value regions of corresponding precipitation were directly related to the locations of frequent occurrences of these weather systems. TCP and FRTP increased over the past four decades, while ETCP decreased. The western part of Northeast China and the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River show precipitation decreases, 37.8% of which is contributed by ETCP decreases. Precipitation increased in most regions of China during the dry season, 34.1% of which is contributed by FRTP increases. Among them, Northeast (Northwest) China significantly increased it precipitation by 14.4% decade−1 (21.8% decade−1), 33.6% (51.3%) of which is contributed by FRTP increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigations of variations and causes of near-surface wind speed (NWS) further understanding of atmospheric changes and improve the ability of climate analysis and projections. NWS varies on multiple temporal scales; however, the centennial-scale variability in NWS and associated causes over China remains unknown. In this study, we employ the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Twentieth Century Reanalysis (ERA-20C) to study the centennial-scale changes in NWS from 1900 to 2010. Meanwhile, a forward stepwise regression algorithm is used to reveal the relationships between NWS and large-scale ocean–atmosphere circulations. The results show three unique periods in annual mean NWS over China from 1900 to 2010. The annual mean NWS displayed decreasing trends of −0.87% and −11.75% decade−1 from 1900 to 1925 and from 1957 to 2010, respectively, which were caused by the decreases in the days with strong winds, with trends of −6.64 and −4.66 days decade−1, respectively. The annual mean NWS showed an upward trend of 55.47% decade−1 from 1926 to 1956, which was caused by increases in the days with moderate (0.43 days decade−1) and strong winds (23.55 days decade−1). The reconstructed wind speeds based on forward stepwise regression algorithm matched well with the original wind speeds; therefore, the decadal changes in NWS over China at the centennial scale were mainly induced by large-scale ocean–atmosphere circulations, with the total explanation power of 66%. The strongest explanation power was found in winter (74%), and the weakest explanation power was found in summer (46%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, are investigated using hourly data across continental China during the warm season (May–October) from 1980 to 2015. Physically, the probability of precipitation accumulations drops slowly with event size up to an approximately exponential cutoff scale sL where probability drops much faster. Hence sL can be used as an indicator of high accumulation percentiles (i.e., extreme precipitation accumulations). Overall, the climatology of sL over continental China is about 54 mm. In terms of cutoff changes, the current warming stage (1980–2015) is divided into two periods, 1980–97 and 1998–2015. We find that the cutoff in 1998–2015 increases about 5.6% compared with that of 1980–97, with an average station increase of 4.7%. Regionally, sL increases are observed over East China (10.9% ± 1.5%), Northwest China (9.7% ± 2.5%), South China (9.4% ± 1.4%), southern Southwest China (5.6% ± 1.2%), and Central China (5.3% ± 1.0%), with decreases over North China (−10.3% ± 1.3%), Northeast China (−4.9% ± 1.5%), and northern Southwest China (−3.9% ± 1.8%). The conditional risk ratios for five subregions with increased cutoff sL are all greater than 1.0, indicating an increased risk of large precipitation accumulations in the most recent period. For high precipitation accumulations larger than the 99th percentile of accumulation s99, the risk of extreme precipitation over these regions can increase above 20% except for South China. These increases of extreme accumulations can be largely explained by the extended duration of extreme accumulation events, especially for "extremely extreme" precipitation greater than s99. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the lower tropospheric temperature inversion (TI) across China remains poorly understood. Using seven years' worth of high-resolution radiosonde measurements at 120 sites, we compile the climatology of lower tropospheric TI in terms of frequency, intensity, and depth during the period from 2011 to 2017. The TI generally exhibits strong seasonal and geographic dependencies. Particularly, the TI frequency is found to be high in winter and low in summer, likely due to the strong aerosol radiative effect in winter. The frequency of the surface-based inversion (SBI) exhibits a ''west low, east high'' pattern at 0800 Beijing time (BJT), which then switches to ''west high, east low'' at 2000 BJT. Both the summertime SBI and elevated inversion (EI) reach a peak at 0800 BJT and a trough at 1400 BJT. Interestingly, the maximum wintertime EI frequency occurs over Southeast China (SEC) rather than over the North China Plain (NCP), likely attributable to the combination of the heating effect of black carbon (BC) originating from the NCP, along with the strong subsidence and trade inversion in SEC. Correlation analyses between local meteorology and TI indicate that larger lower tropospheric stability (LTS) favors more frequent and stronger TIs, whereas the stronger EI under smaller LTS conditions (unstable atmosphere) is more associated with subsidence rather than BC. Overall, the spatial pattern of the lower tropospheric TI and its variability in China are mainly controlled by three factors: local meteorology, large-scale subsidence, and BC-induced heating. These findings help shed some light on the magnitude, spatial distribution, and underlying mechanisms of the lower tropospheric TI variation in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An extensive urban agglomeration has occurred over the Yangtze River delta (YRD) region of East China as a result of rapid urbanization since the middle 1990s. In this study, a 44-yr (i.e., 1975–2018) climatology of the summertime extreme hourly precipitation (EXHP; greater than the 90th percentile) over the YRD is analyzed, using historical land-use data, surface temperature, and hourly rain gauge observations, and then the relationship between rapid urbanization and EXHP changes is examined. Results show significant EXHP contrasts in diurnal variation and storm type roughly before and after middle July. That is, tropical cyclones (TCs) account for 16.4% of the total EXHP hours, 80.5% of which occur during the late summer, whereas non-TC EXHP accounts for 94.7% and 66.2% during the early and late summer, respectively. Increasing trends in occurrence frequency and amount of the non-TC and TC-induced EXHP are detected over the urban agglomeration. Statistically significant larger increasing trends in both the EXHP and surface temperature are observed at urban stations than those at the nearby rural stations. An analysis of 113 locally developed non-TC extreme rainfall events during 2011–18 summers also suggests the contribution of the urban heat island effects to the more occurrences of EXHP, especially over a band-shaped urban region where several major cities are distributed. This study reveals a significant correlation between rapid urbanization and increased EXHP during the past two decades over the YRD region. The results have important implications for understanding the impact of urbanization on EXHP changes in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high-impact extreme precipitation event over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) in the midsummer of 2016 is simulated using the Climate System Model of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS-CSM). After validation of the model’s capability in reproducing the climatological features of precipitation over the YRV, the Transpose Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (T-AMIP)–type experiment, which runs the climate model in the weather forecast mode, is applied to investigate the performance of the climate model in simulating the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall and the related synoptic circulation. Analyses of T-AMIP results indicate that the model realistically reproduces the heavy rainfall centers of accumulated precipitation amount along the YRV, indicating that the climate model has the ability to simulate the severity of the extreme event. However, the frequency–intensity structure shows similar biases as in the AMIP experiment, especially the underestimation of the maximum hourly intensity. The simulation of two typical heavy rainfall periods during the extreme event is further evaluated. The results illustrate that the model shows different performances during periods dominated by circulation systems of different spatial scales. The zonal propagation of heavy rainfall centers during the first two days, which is related to the eastward movement of the southwest vortex, is well reproduced. However, for another period with a smaller vortex, the model produces an artificial steady heavy rainfall center over the upwind slope of the mountains rather than the observed eastward movement of the precipitation centers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strong cold event hit eastern China around 24 January 2016 with surface air temperature reaching more than 10°C below the climatological mean in most regions of eastern China south of 40°N. A total of 37 strong cold events similar to the January 2016 event with temperature anomalies over eastern China exceeding −5°C have been identified during the winters from 1979/80 to 2015/16. A comparative analysis of events with surface temperature anomalies of the same intensity but limited to north of 40°N indicates that the southward invasion of cold air to eastern China south of 40°N is related to two factors. One is the latitudinal location of the upper-level wave train, the surface Siberian high, and the midtropospheric East Asian trough over the mid- to high-latitude Eurasian continent. The other is a subtropical upper-level wave train emanating from the midlatitude North Atlantic. The emergence of the subtropical wave train is related to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the mid- to high-latitude wave train is located too far northward and the subtropical wave train induces an anomalous midtropospheric high over southern China, the East Asian trough does not extend southwestward and the Siberian high does not expand southeastward. In such a case, the cold air mainly affects northeastern China and northern Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daytime (0800-2000 Beijing time) and nighttime (2000-0800 Beijing time) precipitation at approximately 2100 stations in China from 1979 to 2014 was used to evaluate eight current reanalyses. Daytime, nighttime, and nighttime-daytime contrast of precipitation were examined in aspects of climatology, seasonal cycle, interannual variability, and trends. The results show that the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), ERA-Interim/Land, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) can reproduce the observed spatial pattern of nighttime-daytime contrast in precipitation amount, exhibiting a positive center over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and a negative center over southeastern China. All of the reanalyses roughly reproduce seasonal variations of nighttime and daytime precipitation, but not always nighttime-daytime contrast. The reanalyses overestimate drizzle and light precipitation frequencies by greater than 31.5% and underestimate heavy precipitation frequencies by less than −30.8%. The reanalyses successfully reproduce interannual synchronizations of daytime and nighttime precipitation frequencies and amounts with an averaged correlation coefficient r of 0.66 against the observed data but overestimate their year-to-year amplitudes by approximately 64%. The trends in nighttime, daytime, and nighttime-daytime contrast of the observed precipitation amounts are mainly dominated by their frequencies ( r = 0.85). Less than moderate precipitation frequency has exhibited a significant downward trend (−2.5% decade−1 during nighttime and −1.7% decade−1 during daytime) since 1979, which is roughly captured by the reanalyses. However, only JRA-55 captures the observed trend of nighttime precipitation intensity (2.4% decade−1), while the remaining reanalyses show negative trends. Overall, JRA-55 and CFSR provide the best reproductions of the observed nighttime-daytime contrast in precipitation intensity, although they have considerable room for improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eastern China precipitation dipole (ECPD) features an out-of-phase relationship between boreal summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Hetao region to its northwest. The precipitation dipole is strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections over the western tropical Pacific. Here it is shown that a pronounced weakening of both the rainfall variability over eastern China as well as the precipitation dipole structure occurred around the mid-1990s. The changes have been analyzed by considering two epochs: one during 1979-95 and the other during 1996-2009. The characteristic feature of the circulation anomaly during the first epoch is the well-known East Asia-Pacific/Pacific-Japan (EAP/PJ) pattern, a quasi-meridional teleconnection pattern emanating from the western tropical Pacific. On the other hand, during the latter epoch eastern China precipitation variability occurs as an integral part of the circulation anomalies over the western Pacific. In contrast to the more meridionally restricted anomalies during canonical ENSO episodes, the western Pacific circulation has a significantly larger meridional scale. Intriguingly correlation of the precipitation dipole with Pacific sea surface temperature flips in sign during the second epoch, with enhanced precipitation over southeastern China associated with La Niña-like variability, in contrast to the co-occurrence of enhanced precipitation over this region with El Niño during the first epoch. The results suggest that the dominance of Modoki or central Pacific El Niños, and the altered structure of ENSO teleconnections associated with these, may play a role in the weakened ECPD structure during the latter epoch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is computed and compared in China using reference evapotranspiration calculated using the Thornthwaite (TH) approach and the Penman-Monteith (PM) equation. The analysis reveals that SPEI_PM outperforms the SPEI_TH with regard to drought monitoring during the period 1961-2012 over China, especially in arid regions of China. Furthermore, the SPEI_PM also performs better with regard to observed variations in soil moisture and streamflow in China. Thus, changes in drought characteristics over China are detected on the basis of variations in the SPEI_PM. The results indicate that droughts over China exhibit pronounced decadal variations over the past 50 yr, with more frequent and severe droughts occurring before the 1980s and in the 2000s compared with the 1980s and 1990s. Since the late 1990s, droughts have become more frequent and severe across China, especially in some regions of northern China. Concurrently, consecutive drought events have also increased across China. This suggests that dry conditions in China have been enhanced in recent years. Further analyses illustrate that the temperature and precipitation anomalies exhibit different roles in detecting droughts across China, which is primarily due to the magnitude of their variations and different climate variability. Considering temperature and precipitation perturbations, droughts exhibit relatively larger responses to temperature fluctuations in northern China and relatively larger responses to precipitation anomalies in southern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over China and its vicinity during the boreal warm season (May-August) from 2005 to 2012 based on data from the geostationary satellite Fengyun 2 (FY2) series. The authors classified and analyzed the quasi-circular and elongated MCSs on both large and small scales, including mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs), persistent elongated convective systems (PECSs), meso- β circular convective systems (M βCCSs), meso- β elongated convective system (M βECSs), and two additional types named small meso- β circular convective systems (SM βCCSs) and small meso- β elongated convective systems (SM βECSs). Results show that nearly 80% of the 8696 MCSs identified in this study fall into the elongated categories. Overall, MCSs occur mainly at three zonal bands with average latitudes around 20°, 30°, and 50°N. The frequency of MCSs occurrences is maximized at the zonal band around 20°N and decreases with increase in latitude. During the eight warm seasons, the period of peak systems occurrences is in July, followed decreasingly by June, August, and May. Meanwhile, from May to August three kinds of monthly variations are observed, which are clear northward migration, rapid increase, and persistent high frequency of MCS occurrences. Compared to MCSs in the United States, the four types of MCSs (MCCs, PECSs, M βCCSs, and M βECSs) are relatively smaller both in size and eccentricity but exhibit nearly equal life spans. Moreover, MCSs in both countries share similar positive correlations between their duration and maximum extent. Additionally, the diurnal cycles of MCSs in both countries are similar (local time) regarding the three stages of initiation, maturation, and termination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]