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Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have the potential to generate large-impact hydrometeorological events over mountainous topography. In this study, we investigate ARs' impacts on the hydrology of Indus basin (IB) and Ganga basin (GB), two highly populated basins of the Himalayas. We used the recently developed 37-yr-long ERA5-based AR database over the Himalayas to explore the influence of ARs on total and extreme precipitation, snowfall, and floods over these basins. We find that ARs contribute ∼25% to the annual rainfall in the IB and ∼15% in the GB. Over the mountainous regions, ARs contribute more than 50% to winter precipitation in Karakoram (KA), Hindu–Kush (HK), central (CH), and western Himalayas (WH), and respectively explain over 75%, 57%, 42%, and 30% of their interannual variability. The seasonal rainfall extremes over the mountain foothills are most often (50%–100%) associated with ARs in winter and spring, whereas the summer and autumn extremes over the plains and mountains foothills appear moderately associated with ARs (10%–40%). The two most catastrophic flood events (2014 Kashmir flood and 2013 Uttarakhand flood) in these basins are found to be linked with category 5 ARs. Upon further examination of floods over a long period, we noted that 56% and 73% of the floods in IB and GB, respectively, are related to ARs. Thus, our results establish that the variance of ARs is a major source of hydroclimate variability in the two Himalayan basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate identification of the impact of global warming on water resources in major river systems represents a significant challenge to the understanding of climate change on the regional scale. Here, dynamically downscaled climate projections for western Canada are presented, and impacts on hydrological variables in two major river basins, the Fraser and Athabasca, are discussed. These regions are both challenging because of the complexity of the topography and important because of the economic activity occurring within them. To obtain robust projections of future conditions, and to adequately characterize the impact of natural variability, a small initial condition ensemble of independently downscaled climate projections is employed. The Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), is used to generate the ensemble, which consists of four members. Downscaling is performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, version 3.4.1 (WRF V3.4.1), in a nested configuration with two domains at 30- and 10-km resolution, respectively. The entire ensemble was integrated for a historical validation period and for a mid-twenty-first-century projection period [assuming representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) for the future trajectory of greenhouse gases]. The projections herein are characterized by an increase in winter precipitation for the mid-twenty-first-century period, whereas net precipitation in summer is projected to decrease, due to increased evapotranspiration. In the Fraser River basin, a shift to more liquid precipitation and earlier snowmelt will likely reduce the seasonal variability of runoff, in particular the spring freshet. In the Athabasca River basin, winter precipitation and snowmelt may increase somewhat, but increasing evapotranspiration may lead to reduced streamflow in late summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of satellite estimates of rainfall and lake levels offers exciting new opportunities to estimate the hydrologic properties of lake systems. Combined with simple basin models, connections to climatic variations can then be explored with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns. This study examines the capability of a simple basin model to estimate variations in water level for 12 tropical lakes and reservoirs during a 16-yr remotely sensed observation period (1992--2007). The model is constructed with two empirical parameters: effective catchment to lake area ratio and time delay between freshwater flux and lake level response. Rainfall datasets, one reanalysis and two satellite-based observational products, and two radar-altimetry-derived lake level datasets are explored and cross checked. Good agreement is observed between the two lake level datasets with the lowest correlations occurring for the two small lakes Kainji and Tana (0.87 and 0.89). Fitting observations to the simple basin model provides a set of delay times between rainfall and level rise ranging up to 105 days and effective catchment to lake ratios ranging between 2 and 27. For 9 of 12 lakes and reservoirs the observational rainfall products provide a better fit to observed lake levels than the reanalysis rainfall product. But for most of the records any of the rainfall products provide reasonable lake level estimates, a result which opens up the possibility of using rainfall to create seasonal forecasts of future lake levels and hindcasts of past lake levels. The limitations of the observation sets and the two-parameter model are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern Rocky Mountains (NRMs) are a critical headwaters region with the majority of water resources originating from mountain snowpack. Observations showing declines in western U.S. snowpack have implications for water resources and biophysical processes in high-mountain environments. This study investigates oceanic and atmospheric controls underlying changes in timing, variability, and trends documented across the entire hydroclimatic-monitoring system within critical NRM watersheds. Analyses were conducted using records from 25 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations, 148 1 April snow course records, stream gauge records from 14 relatively unimpaired rivers, and 37 valley meteorological stations. Over the past four decades, midelevation SNOTEL records show a tendency toward decreased snowpack with peak snow water equivalent (SWE) arriving and melting out earlier. Temperature records show significant seasonal and annual decreases in the number of frost days (days ≤≤0°°C) and changes in spring minimum temperatures that correspond with atmospheric circulation changes and surface--albedo feedbacks in March and April. Warmer spring temperatures coupled with increases in mean and variance of spring precipitation correspond strongly to earlier snowmeltout, an increased number of snow-free days, and observed changes in streamflow timing and discharge. The majority of the variability in peak and total annual snowpack and streamflow, however, is explained by season-dependent interannual-to-interdecadal changes in atmospheric circulation associated with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Over recent decades, increased spring precipitation appears to be buffering NRM total annual streamflow from what would otherwise be greater snow-related declines in hydrologic yield. Results have important implications for ecosystems, water resources, and long-lead-forecasting capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the changes in the size of closed basin lakes, the author shows that water availability has undergone large fluctuations in response to conditions experienced during full glacial time and during the period of deglaciation. Based on these observations, the author concludes that as the planet warms in response to the buildup of fossil fuel CO2, the distribution of available water will shift. The resulting changes will be particularly noticeable in the world''s drylands. In this paper, the author attempts to invert the response to cold glacial conditions and to interhemispheric temperature differences, which occurred during the interval of deglaciation, to predict how the hydrologic conditions in the western United States might evolve over the next half-century. The tentative conclusion on both scores is that this region will likely undergo a progressive drying. However, because both the glacial and deglacial hydrologic shifts were certainly influenced by the presence of excess ice, as well as by colder temperatures, the author admits that the validity of this inversion is subject to challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]