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A currently popular idea is that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be viewed as a linear deterministic system forced by noise representing processes with periods shorter than ENSO. Also, there is observational evidence to suggest that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) acts to trigger and/or amplify the warm phase of ENSO in this way. The feedback of the slower process, ENSO, to higher-frequency atmospheric phenomena, of which a large part of the variability in the intraseasonal band is due to the MJO, has received little attention. This paper considers the hypothesis that the probability of an El Niño event is modified by high MJO activity and that, in turn, the MJO is regulated by ENSO activity. If this is indeed the case, then viewing ENSO as a low-frequency oscillation forced by additive stochastic noise would not present a complete picture. This paper tests the above hypothesis using a stochastically forced intermediate coupled model by allowing ENSO to directly influence the stochastic forcing. The model response to a variety of stochastic forcing types is found to be sensitive to the type of forcing applied. When the model is operated beyond its intrinsic Hopf bifurcation, its probability distribution function (PDF) is fundamentally altered when the stochastic forcing is changed from additive to multiplicative. The model integration period also influences the shape of the PDF, which is also compared to the PDF derived from observations. It is found that multiplicative stochastic forcing reproduces some measures of the observations better than the additive stochastic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decadal-scale variability in the tropical Pacific has been analyzed herein by means of observations and numerical model simulations. The two leading modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central western Pacific are a decadal mode with a period of about 10 yr and the ENSO mode with a dominant period of about 4 yr. The SST anomaly pattern of the decadal mode is ENSO like. The decadal mode, however, explains most variance in the western equatorial Pacific and off the equator. A simulation with an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by reanalysis data is used to explore the origin of the decadal mode. It is found that the variability of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells is an important factor in driving the decadal mode. This is supported by results from a multicentury integration with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) that realistically simulates tropical Pacific decadal variability. Finally, the sensitivity of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells to greenhouse warming is discussed by analyzing the results of a scenario integration with the same CGCM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]