Search

This paper examines the possible influence of external forcings on observed changes in precipitation extremes in the mid-to-high latitudes of Asia during 1958–2012 and attempts to identify particular extreme precipitation indices on which there are better chances to detect the influence of external forcings. We compare a recently compiled dataset of observed extreme indices with those from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations using an optimal fingerprinting method. We consider six indices that characterize different aspects of extreme precipitation, including annual maximum amount of precipitation falling in 1 day (Rx1day) or 5 days (Rx5day), the total amount of precipitation from the top 5% or top 1% daily amount on wet days, and the fraction of the annual total precipitation from these events. For single-signal analysis, the fingerprints of external forcings including anthropogenic agents are robustly detected in most studied extreme indices over all Asia and for midlatitude Asia but not for high-latitude Asia. For two-signal analysis, anthropogenic influence is detectable in these indices over Asia at 5% or slightly less than 5% significance level, whereas natural influence is not detectable. In high-latitude Asia, anthropogenic influence is detected only in a fractional index, representing a stark contrast to the midlatitude and full Asia results. We find relatively smaller internal variability and thus higher signal-to-noise ratio in the fractional indices when compared with the other ones. Our results point to the need for studying precipitation extreme indices that are less affected by internal variability while still representing the relevant nature of precipitation extremes to improve the possibility of detecting a forced signal if one is present in the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper scrutinizes the zonal oscillation of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) via diagnosing its two extreme phases, which are defined by the top 10% strongest (positive phase) and the weakest (negative phase) WNPSH index (WNPSHI) days during summers in 1979–2016. Key findings include the following: a tripole pattern consisting of intensified (weakened) precipitation over the Maritime Continent and the East Asian summer monsoon regions, and suppressed (strengthened) precipitation over the western North Pacific summer monsoon region during positive (negative) WNPSH phases; a westward movement of WNPSH-induced precipitation anomalies that subsequently affects eastern China, Japan, and the Korean Peninsula at different time lags; an OLR–vorticity pattern explained by atmospheric responses to thermal sources is suggested to drive the oscillation; and the competitive interaction of local air–sea feedbacks, especially during the positive phase. In addition, moderate-to-strong positive correlations between the WNPSHI and the Niño-3.4 index are found on 1–2-, 2–3-, and 3–6-yr time scales; both exhibit decadal shifts to a higher-frequency mode, suggesting the intensification of both the zonal WNPSH oscillation and the ENSO under the changing climate and their close interdecadal association. A nonlinear quasi-biennial WNPSH–ENSO relationship is identified: the positive (negative) WNPSH phase sometimes occurs during 1) a decaying El Niño (La Niña) in the preceding summer/autumn, and/or 2) a developing La Niña (El Niño) in the current summer/autumn. A full ENSO transition from moderate-to-strong El Niño to La Niña is often seen during the positive phase, offering potential in predicting ENSO events and extreme WNPSH phases and thereby the summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method to homogenize China's surface solar radiation (SSR) data and uses the resulting homogenized SSR data to assess the SSR trend over the period 1958-2016. Neighboring surface sunshine duration (SSD) data are used as reference data to assess the SSR data homogeneity. A principal component analysis is applied to build a reference series, which is proven to be less sensitive to occasional data issues than using the arithmetic mean of data from adjacent stations. A relative or absolute test is applied to detect changepoints, depending on whether or not a suitable reference series is available. A quantile-matching method is used to adjust the data to diminish the inhomogeneities. As a result, 60 out of the 119 SSR stations were found to have inhomogeneity issues. These were mainly caused by changes in instrument and observation schedule. The nonclimatic changes exaggerated the SSR change rates in 1991-93 and resulted in a sudden rise in the national average SSR series, causing an unrealistically drastic trend reversal in the 1990s. This was diminished by the data homogenization. The homogenized data show that the national average SSR has been declining significantly over the period 1958-90; this dimming trend mostly diminished over the period 1991-2005 and was replaced by a brightening trend in the recent decade. From the homogenized SSR data, the 1958-90 and 1958-2005 dimming rate is estimated to be -6.13 ± 0.47 and -5.08 ± 0.27W m-2 decade-1, respectively, and the 2005-16 brightening rate is 6.13 ± 1.77W m-2 decade-1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a novel simulation of active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using a relatively high-resolution regional coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model (RCM) run at 10-km grid spacing. Similar to what is seen in observations, the RCM-simulated active (break) spells are characterized by stronger (weaker) rainfall over central India and anomalous low-level atmospheric flow that enhances (weakens) the climatological flow pattern. Highlights of this study include the improved spatiotemporal structure, propagation characteristics, and amplitude of the intraseasonal variations of the ISM rainfall in the RCM simulation as compared with some of the more recent simulations conducted with global models at coarser spatial resolutions. This study's RCM simulation also displays associated variations in the upper ocean, with active (break) spells of the ISM coinciding with colder (warmer) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. These SST anomalies are mainly sustained by corresponding net heat flux anomalies on the ocean surface. The active (break) spells are further associated with shoaling (deepening) of the mixed layer depth, which is critical for the SST response to heat flux. All of these simulated features of intraseasonal variations of the ISM have been seen in earlier observational studies, which further confirms the fidelity of the model simulation and the importance of coupled air-sea interactions and upper-ocean stratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the study of the relationship between the thermal configuration of the Bay of Bengal (BOB)-Tibetan Plateau (TP) region and the precipitation anomaly in Yunnan, a province in China, in May using ERA-Interim data and precipitation data for May from 125 meteorological stations across Yunnan for 1979-2014. Results from the analysis indicate that the interannual variability of May precipitation in Yunnan is significantly modulated by the BOB-TP thermal configuration. Model runs with a linear baroclinic model suggest physical consistency. The thermal conditions over the BOB mainly impact the May precipitation anomaly in Yunnan via changes in water vapor transport from the eastern BOB northeastward to southwestern Yunnan. The second factor influencing precipitation anomalies relates to the characteristics and variability of cold air transport from the TP to northeastern Yunnan. When the BOB (the TP) is occupied by positive (negative) diabatic heating, a thermal gradient with a warmer (colder) center over the BOB and a colder (warmer) center over the TP is established, and more-than-normal (less than normal) precipitation in Yunnan will occur in May. This relationship can persist from April to the following May to some extent; therefore, the BOB-TP thermal configuration in April could be used to forecast May precipitation in Yunnan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial domain of the Asian monsoon has been defined by the intensity, seasonal concentration, and annual range of precipitation. Monsoon subdomains, such as the Indian monsoon, East Asian monsoon, and western North Pacific monsoon, have also been identified based on seasonal wind reversals as well as the timing and source of monsoon moisture. However, precipitation across the Asian monsoon region is heterogeneous and spatially complex and may have influences farther north than commonly assumed, particularly if scientists consider records of past variability spanning the current interglacial period. This paper presents an additional means of identifying the Asian monsoon domain and monsoon subsystems using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based regionalization of gridded precipitation values. Regions of unique precipitation variability for the Asian monsoon region are determined using monthly precipitation anomalies from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) gridded precipitation dataset from 1979 to 2009. From these regions, an area of Asian monsoon influence extending from the Arabian Sea eastward to the western North Pacific Ocean is defined, similar to other studies. One key difference is that this region of monsoon influence penetrates farther north into the Tibetan Plateau and northern China. Thus, paleoclimate observations of wetter conditions in these northern arid regions may suggest an intensification of monsoon moisture, rather than a northward shift in the boundary of the monsoon. In contrast, the Arabian Peninsula, largely removed from monsoon precipitation today, likely saw a shift of monsoon influence inland earlier in the Holocene. Also identified are different subdomains of distinct precipitation variability in southeastern Asia, the western North Pacific, and the East Asian monsoon region of northeastern China that agree with previous studies. Not identified in the paper is a single Indian summer monsoon region. Instead, the Arabian Sea was found to have unique precipitation variability relative to the Indian subcontinent. Summers with enhanced precipitation over the Arabian Sea coincide with decreased summer precipitation in the western North Pacific. This relationship is likely a result of the El Niñño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced development of the Philippine Sea anticyclone. Local and remote sea surface temperatures were generally found to covary with regional precipitation, but not all regions respond similarly to the remote climate variability associated with ENSO. There is some evidence that the EOF-defined regions were stable ...... through the Holocene, although additional regionalization analyses of paleorecords and model simulations of past precipitation variability are needed to reconstruct past regions of coherent precipitation variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relationship between the 1000-850-hPa layer perturbation potential energy (LPPE) as the difference in local potential energy between the actual state and the reference state and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using reanalysis and observational datasets. The EASM is closely related to the first-order moment term of LPPE (LPPE1) from the preceding March to the boreal summer over three key regions: the eastern Indian Ocean, the subtropical central Pacific, and midlatitude East Asia. The LPPE1 pattern (−, +, +), with negative values over the eastern Indian Ocean, positive values over the subtropical central Pacific, and positive values over East Asia, corresponds to negative LPPE1 anomalies over the south of the EASM region but positive LPPE1 anomalies over the north of the EASM region, which lead to an anomalous downward branch over the southern region but an upward branch over the northern region. The anomalous vertical motion affects the local meridional circulation over East Asia that leads to a southwesterly wind anomaly over East Asia (south of 30°N) at 850 hPa and anomalous downward motion over 100°-120°E (along 25°-35°N), resulting in a stronger EASM, more kinetic energy over the EASM region, and less boreal summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (24°-36°N, 90°-125°E). These LPPE1 anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean and subtropical central Pacific appear to be connected to changes in local sea surface temperature through the release of latent heat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The multimodel ensemble (MME) is able to reproduce reasonably well the circulation features of the EAWM. The simulated surface air temperature still suffers from a cold bias over East Asia, but this bias is reduced compared with CMIP phase 3 models. The intermodel spread is relatively small for the large-scale circulations, but is large for the lower-tropospheric meridional wind and precipitation along the East Asian coast. The interannual variability of the EAWM-related circulations can be captured by most of the models. A general bias is that the simulated variability is slightly weaker than in the observations. Based on a selected dynamic EAWM index, the patterns of the EAWM-related anomalies are well reproduced in MME although the simulated anomalies are slightly weaker than the observations. One general bias is that the northeasterly anomalies over East Asia cannot be captured to the south of 30°N. This bias may arise both from the inadequacies of the EAWM index and from the ability of models to capture the EAWM-related tropical-extratropical interactions. The ENSO-EAWM relationship is then evaluated and about half of the models can successfully capture the observed ENSO-EAWM relationship, including the significant negative correlation between Niño-3.4 and EAWM indices and the anomalous anticyclone (or cyclone) over the northwestern Pacific. The success of these models is attributed to the reasonable simulation of both ENSO's spatial structure and its strength of interannual variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial domain of the Asian monsoon has been defined by the intensity, seasonal concentration, and annual range of precipitation. Monsoon subdomains, such as the Indian monsoon, East Asian monsoon, and western North Pacific monsoon, have also been identified based on seasonal wind reversals as well as the timing and source of monsoon moisture. However, precipitation across the Asian monsoon region is heterogeneous and spatially complex and may have influences farther north than commonly assumed, particularly if scientists consider records of past variability spanning the current interglacial period. This paper presents an additional means of identifying the Asian monsoon domain and monsoon subsystems using an empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based regionalization of gridded precipitation values. Regions of unique precipitation variability for the Asian monsoon region are determined using monthly precipitation anomalies from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) gridded precipitation dataset from 1979 to 2009. From these regions, an area of Asian monsoon influence extending from the Arabian Sea eastward to the western North Pacific Ocean is defined, similar to other studies. One key difference is that this region of monsoon influence penetrates farther north into the Tibetan Plateau and northern China. Thus, paleoclimate observations of wetter conditions in these northern arid regions may suggest an intensification of monsoon moisture, rather than a northward shift in the boundary of the monsoon. In contrast, the Arabian Peninsula, largely removed from monsoon precipitation today, likely saw a shift of monsoon influence inland earlier in the Holocene. Also identified are different subdomains of distinct precipitation variability in southeastern Asia, the western North Pacific, and the East Asian monsoon region of northeastern China that agree with previous studies. Not identified in the paper is a single Indian summer monsoon region. Instead, the Arabian Sea was found to have unique precipitation variability relative to the Indian subcontinent. Summers with enhanced precipitation over the Arabian Sea coincide with decreased summer precipitation in the western North Pacific. This relationship is likely a result of the El Niñño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced development of the Philippine Sea anticyclone. Local and remote sea surface temperatures were generally found to covary with regional precipitation, but not all regions respond similarly to the remote climate variability associated with ENSO. There is some evidence that the EOF-defined regions were stable ...... through the Holocene, although additional regionalization analyses of paleorecords and model simulations of past precipitation variability are needed to reconstruct past regions of coherent precipitation variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The findings of the study reported in this paper show that, during ENSO decaying summers, rainfall and circulation anomalies exhibit clear subseasonal variation. Corresponding to a positive (negative) December--February (DJF) Niñño-3.4 index, a positive (negative) subtropical rainfall anomaly, with a southwest--northeast tilt, appears in South China and the western North Pacific (WNP) in the subsequent early summer (from June to middle July) but advances northward into the Huai River Basin in China as well as Korea and central Japan in late summer (from late July to August). Concurrently, a lower-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly over the WNP extends northward from early to late summer. The seasonal change in the basic flows, characterized by the northward shift of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet and the WNP subtropical high, is suggested to be responsible for the differences in the above rainfall and circulation anomalies between early and late summer by inducing distinct extratropical responses even under the almost identical tropical forcing of a precipitation anomaly in the Philippine Sea. A particular focus of the study is to investigate, using station rainfall data, the subseasonal variations in ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in eastern China since the 1950s, to attempt to examine their role in weakening the relationship between the ENSO and summer mean rainfall in eastern China since the late 1970s. It is found that the ENSO-related rainfall anomalies tend to be similar between early and late summer before the late 1970s, that is, the period characterized by a stronger ENSO--summer mean rainfall relationship. After the late 1970s, however, the anomalous rainfall pattern in eastern China is almost reversed between early and late summer, resulting accordingly in a weakened relationship between the ENSO and total summer rainfall in eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During glacial periods, the East Asian monsoon is typically thought to have been stronger in boreal winters and weaker in boreal summers. It is unclear, however, whether this view is true at larger scales and to what extent the East Asian monsoon responds to glacial conditions as a whole. Using all experiments conducted as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), this paper examines East Asian monsoon climatology during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), around 21 000 calendar years ago. In contrast to conclusions drawn from sparse proxy data, the intensity of the East Asian winter (December-February) monsoon (EAWM) during the LGM, as measured by regionally averaged meridional wind speed at 850 hPa, was found to vary both in sign and magnitude, with reference to baseline climate, across the PMIP simulations. It strengthened in 10 out of the 21 models but weakened in the remaining 11 models, with an average weakening of 4% for the 21-model ensemble mean (15% for the ensemble mean of the 14 models with computed sea surface temperatures). At the subregional scale, the LGM EAWM strengthened north of about 30°N but weakened south of this region in East Asia, which can be explained by changes in surface temperature. On the other hand, all of the 14 models chosen in this study consistently simulated a weaker than baseline East Asian summer (June-August) monsoon during the LGM, with an average weakening of 25%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vegetation around the Daihai Lake, northern China, is very sensitive to climate changes. In this paper, pollen-based quantitative climate reconstructions using three methods [weighted averaging partial least squares method (WAPLS), modern analog technique (MAT), and pollen response surface method (PRS)] were conducted to obtain robust reconstructions of Holocene climate changes in the Daihai Lake area. The result obtained by the three methods all consistently show the annual precipitation to have been 50–100 mm lower in the early Holocene, 100–200 mm higher in the Mid-Holocene, and 50–100 mm lower again in the late Holocene than at present. The WAPLS and the MAT methods also show quasi-synchronous oscillations of the mean annual temperature (Ta); 1°–2°C lower in the Early Holocene and 1°–3°C higher in the Mid-Holocene than today. The time period from 6200 to 5100 cal yr BP was the wettest and the warmest interval, with an annual precipitation (Pa) greater than 550 mm and mean annual temperature Ta higher than 6.5°C. Several cold and dry events can be identified to occur about 8200, 6000, and 4400 cal yr BP, with an annual precipitation less than 400 mm and a mean annual temperature colder than 4.5°C, respectively. The mean temperature of the warmest month (Tw) as reconstructed using both WAPLS and MAT methods was relatively stable during the Holocene, fluctuating about ±2°C relative to the present level, but the PRS method suggests more varied Tw values in both amplitude and frequency. After 1500 cal yr BP, no consistent pattern can be observed from these three different analyses, probably because of the impact of intensified human disturbances on the natural vegetation. The fluctuations of annual precipitation (Pa) correspond to that observed in Dongge Cave in southern China. The differences might be linked to Indian monsoon and East Asia monsoon climates or caused by the different degree of dating precision, different temporal resolution, and different sensitive response of climate proxies to the climate variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer heat waves (HWs) in Northeast China (NEC) during 1961-2016 can be classified into two types, namely, wave train HWs and blocking HWs based on the hierarchical clustering algorithm by using ERA-Interim daily datasets. Wave train HWs occurred accompanied by eastward-moving wave trains with a "2121" structure formed over Eurasia, while the blocking HWs occurred with blocking circulation anomalies over Eurasia. In general, the blocking HWs could cause the positive temperature anomalies in NEC to last longer than wave train HWs. During the period from 1961 to 2016, the wave train HWs experienced an interdecadal variation from less to more, while the blocking HWs experienced interdecadal variations of less-more-less. Regression analysis and information flow indicate that the interdecadal variation of the wave train HWs is associated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), while the interdecadal variation of the blocking HWs is more likely associated with PDO. The positive phase of AMO (negative phase of PDO) could increase the wave train (blocking) HWs by strengthening the zonal wave train similar to the Silk Road pattern (the arched wave train like the polar-Eurasian pattern). The observed results are in agreement with the numerical experiments with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, four machine-learning (ML) models [gradient boost decision tree (GBDT), light gradient boosting machine (Light GBM), categorical boosting (CatBoost), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)] are used to perform seasonal forecasts for nonmonsoonal winter precipitation over the Eurasian continent (30°–60°N, 30°–105°E) (NWPE). The seasonal forecast results from a traditional linear regression (LR) model and two dynamic models are compared. The ML and LR models are trained using the data for the period of 1979–2010, and then these empirical models are used to perform the seasonal forecast of NWPE for 2011–18. Our results show that the four ML models have reasonable seasonal forecast skills for the NWPE and clearly outperform the LR model. The ML models and the dynamic models have skillful forecasts for the NWPE over different regions. The ensemble means of the forecasts including the ML models and dynamic models show higher forecast skill for the NWEP than the ensemble mean of the dynamic-only models. The forecast skill of the ML models mainly benefits from a skillful forecast of the third empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode (EOF3) of the NWPE, which has a good and consistent prediction among the ML models. Our results also illustrate that the sea ice over the Arctic in the previous autumn is the most important predictor in the ML models in forecasting the NWPE. This study suggests that ML models may be useful tools to help improve seasonal forecasts of the NWPE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of six CMIP6 models to reproduce the observed cold season teleconnection between tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation in Southwest Asia, the coastal Middle East (CME), and northern Pakistan and India (NPI) is examined. The 1979–2014 period is analyzed to maximize observations over both the tropical ocean and the regions. Nine historical simulations for the same period are examined for each model to account for the internal variability of the coupled system. The teleconnection is examined in terms of SSTs, precipitation, 200-hPa geopotential heights, and derived quantities. All the models capture some of the broadest features of the teleconnections, but there is a wide range in the ability of the models to reproduce the magnitude and details. The differences appear related to both the models' ability to capture the details of the tropical variability, including the position and strength of the precipitation anomalies in the Indo-west Pacific, and the models' ability to accurately propagate the tropically forced response into the region. The teleconnections to the CME and NPI regions on the eastern and western margins, respectively, of the strongest signal are very similar in structure and have similar results, except that the models' ability to reproduce the strength and details of the teleconnection is even more limited, consistent with their marginal locations and known influence of other modes of variability. For all three areas, the wide range in model ability to capture the leading teleconnection suggests caution in interpreting climate regional projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future changes in the frequency of extreme drought events are of vital importance for risk assessment and relevant policy making. But a reliable estimation of their probability is intrinsically challenging due to limited available observations or simulations. Here, we use two large ensemble simulations, 50 members from CanESM2 and 40 members from CESM1 under the future RCP8.5 scenario, to elaborate a reliable projection of the 100-yr drought events (once in a century) under different warming levels. It is however necessary to first remove systematic biases for the simulated temperature and precipitation through a bias-correction method based on quantile mapping. Droughts are diagnosed with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), which considers both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET, involving temperature). The results show that the frequency of extreme droughts increases with the continued global warming. Some differences between the two ensembles are also observed, especially for high warming levels. The China-averaged probability of 100-yr droughts that occur once in a century in the current climate increase by a factor of 1.52 (1.44) and 1.90 (2.02) under 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels in CanESM2-LE (CESM1-LE), respectively. A simple statistical scheme shows that the increasing future risk of extreme droughts is mainly due to the increasing effect of PET on the occurrence of extreme drought events, while the effect of precipitation almost keeps constant with global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan regularly experiences precipitation extremes of hundreds of millimeters per day, especially between May and September. In this study, Taiwan's extreme rainfall (ER) is analyzed over a 56-yr time period in different seasons and geographic regions, using a recently released, high-resolution gridded rainfall dataset. ER is defined using a seasonally and geographically varying 99th-percentile threshold to better resolve the characteristics of the most intense rainfall seen in different locations and times of year. The resulting monthly ER rates are largest in typhoon season and smallest in fall, winter, and spring. ER is spatially homogeneous in the mei-yu and typhoon seasons and concentrated in northern Taiwan during the rest of the year. A trend analysis revealed a positive trend in island-mean ER for the winter, spring, and typhoon seasons. In winter and spring, these trends are most pronounced in the north. In the mei-yu season, ER has increased most over the southwestern mountain slopes; in typhoon season, ER has increased consistently over much of Taiwan. These changes often exceed 1% yr−1. In many areas, typhoon season accounts for the largest fraction of the observed annual ER trend. TCs produce most of the observed typhoon season ER and ER trend, with nearly half of the typhoon season ER trend being associated with increases in TC frequency and duration around central and northern Taiwan. Certain regional changes in ER characteristics, particularly in areas with low sample size or complex seasonal contributions, merit further investigation in future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the so-called water tower of Asia, plays an important role in the water cycle. However, few studies have linked the TP's water vapor supply with the climate over North China. In this study, we found that changes in the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) dynamically induce drought in North China, and the TP plays an important role in this relationship. During July–August for the period of 1981–2019, the SWJ center between 75° and 105°E obviously shifted northward at a rate of 0.04° per year. Correspondingly, the zonal winds in the southern subtropics were incredibly weakened, causing the outflow of water vapor from the TP to decrease dramatically. Combined with numerical simulations, we discovered that a reduction in water vapor transport from the TP can obviously decrease the precipitation over North China. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated that if the water vapor outflow from the eastern border of the TP decreases by 52.74%, the precipitation in North China will decrease by 12.69% due to a decrease in the local cloud fraction caused by a diminished water vapor content in the atmosphere. Therefore, although less water vapor transport occurs in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere, the impact of transport from the TP in the former on the downstream precipitation cannot be ignored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convective afternoon rainfall (CAR) events, which tend to generate a local rainfall typically in the afternoon, are among the most frequently observed local weather patterns over Southeast Asia during summer. Using satellite precipitation estimations as an observational base for model evaluation, this study examines the applicability of 10 global climate models provided by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in simulating the CAR activities over Southeast Asia. Analyses also focus on exploring the characteristics and maintenance mechanisms of related projections of CAR activities in the future. Our analyses of the historical simulation indicate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg are the two best models for simulating CAR activities (including amount, frequency, and intensity) over Southeast Asia. Analyses also demonstrate that EC-Earth3 and EC-Earth3-Veg outperform their earlier version (i.e., EC-Earth) in CMIP5 owing to the improvement in its spatial resolution in CMIP6. For future projections, our examinations of the differences in CAR activities between the future (2071–2100, under the SSP858 run) and the present (1985–2014, under the historical run) indicate that CAR events will become fewer but more intense over most land areas of Southeast Asia. Possible causes of the projected increase (decrease) in CAR intensity (frequency) are attributed to the projected increase (decrease) in the local atmospheric humidity (sea breeze convergence and daytime thermal instability). These findings provide insight into how the local weather/climate over Southeast Asia is likely to change under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The synoptic low pressure systems (LPSs) formed over the downwind side of the Tibetan Plateau explain a substantial portion of summer rainfall extremes along their paths. Recent studies have found that the total extreme rainfall trend over the East Asian landmass, which features the “south flood–north drought” pattern, can be understood to a great extent by the changes in terrestrial LPSs. Yet, the energy sources fueling these storms and the environmental drivers of their long-term trends remain unclear. Utilizing a probabilistic clustering method, three clusters of terrestrial LPS tracks for the period 1979–2018 are identified. Besides the differences in trajectories that distinguish the clusters into northeastward-migrating and quasi-stationary types, prominent intercluster differences are found in the LPS evolution, energetics, and trends. The Lorenz energetics suggest that while condensational heating is indispensable for all three clusters, the migratory type, which has greater intensity and faster development, is more closely tied to baroclinicity. Nonetheless, the summer baroclinicity alone is not enough to sustain these LPSs as these storms dissipate quickly after propagating out of the humid monsoon region and into the drier extratropics. Over time, occurrences of migratory LPSs decrease, and those of quasi-stationary LPSs increase. Using a Poisson model that links the LPS genesis to local environmental conditions, the decreasing occurrence of migratory LPSs is shown to result from the weakened baroclinicity, whereas the increasing occurrence of quasi-stationary LPSs is primarily driven by enhanced relative humidity and reduced steering flow in the mid-to-lower troposphere over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of the climate effects of black carbon (BC) in East Asia are not abundant and the effects remain uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) with Peking University's emissions data, the fast response of the atmospheric water cycle to anthropogenic BC during summer in East Asia is investigated in this study. Results show that the CESM1-simulated BC concentration and its direct effective radiative forcing are comparable to observations. With the combination of aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI) and non-aerosol–radiation interaction (including aerosol–cloud interaction and surface albedo effects), anthropogenic BC induces a "wetter south and drier north" pattern over East Asia during summer. Also, anthropogenic BC affects the summer precipitation primarily through changing moisture transport rather than altering local evaporation over East Asia. Using the self-developed atmospheric water tracer method, the responses of dominant moisture sources [the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and northwest Pacific] to anthropogenic BC are investigated. Results show that the moisture originating from southwest monsoon-related sources (especially the TIO) is more responsive to anthropogenic BC effects over East Asia. In particular, differing from total precipitation, TIO-supplied precipitation shows a significant response to the ARI of anthropogenic BC over East Asia. Process analyses show that anthropogenic BC affects the southwest monsoon-related moisture supplies primarily via advection, deep convection, and cloud macrophysics. Interestingly, the anthropogenic BC-induced changes of TIO-supplied water vapor in these three processes are all dominated by the ARI over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. Here the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study indicates a significant variation of humidity on extreme heat (EH) days over South Korea and southern–central Japan during the period 1979–2018. EH is therefore classified into three categories: type-A wet EH, type-B wet EH, and dry EH. Their statistical characteristics and formation mechanisms are investigated and compared. Our results suggest that the type-A wet EH is the most destructive, with the highest intensity, longest duration, and broadest spatial scale covering most of midlatitude East Asia. By contrast, type-B wet EH and dry EH are weaker, shorter, and mostly confined to northeast Asia. Despite these differences in characteristics, both types of wet EH are caused by the poleward advance of tropical warm and humid air masses as a result of the northward displacement of the Asian westerly jet. By contrast, dry EH is primarily induced by an increase in adiabatic heating and solar radiation resulting from anomalous subsidence. The three types of EH are associated with distinct large-scale teleconnections over Eurasia. A stable and persistent tripole wave pattern is responsible for type-A wet EH. The activity of atmospheric blocking over northern Europe, where the pattern originates, plays a crucial role in maintaining this pattern. By contrast, type-B wet EH and dry EH are related to a quadrupole pattern and a Silk Road pattern–like teleconnection, respectively, both lasting for a shorter time. These results highlight the diversity of EH, which suggests that multiple local and large-scale circulations should be considered to improve the forecast skills for EH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of observation data from 1961 to 2014 by using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method indicate that the primary mode (a monosign pattern) of heavy snowfall over northern China in winter shows evident variations from a negative polarity to a positive polarity in the mid-1990s. Associated with this decadal change, the southward displacement of the polar front jet stream and northward shift of the subtropical jet stream in the upper troposphere are apparent. Accordingly, a negative height anomaly dominates the region from Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal and a positive height anomaly occupies the midlatitudes of the North Pacific in the middle troposphere. Such anomalous patterns in the middle and high troposphere correspond approximately to the northern mode of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and may favor the interaction of cold air with moist airflows over northern China, which helps increase local heavy snowfall. Further investigation shows that the shift in the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990s may also play a role, through its linkage to the above atmospheric circulations with the aid of a downstream propagation of wave train that emanates from the Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation accumulations, integrated over rainfall events, are investigated using hourly data across continental China during the warm season (May–October) from 1980 to 2015. Physically, the probability of precipitation accumulations drops slowly with event size up to an approximately exponential cutoff scale sL where probability drops much faster. Hence sL can be used as an indicator of high accumulation percentiles (i.e., extreme precipitation accumulations). Overall, the climatology of sL over continental China is about 54 mm. In terms of cutoff changes, the current warming stage (1980–2015) is divided into two periods, 1980–97 and 1998–2015. We find that the cutoff in 1998–2015 increases about 5.6% compared with that of 1980–97, with an average station increase of 4.7%. Regionally, sL increases are observed over East China (10.9% ± 1.5%), Northwest China (9.7% ± 2.5%), South China (9.4% ± 1.4%), southern Southwest China (5.6% ± 1.2%), and Central China (5.3% ± 1.0%), with decreases over North China (−10.3% ± 1.3%), Northeast China (−4.9% ± 1.5%), and northern Southwest China (−3.9% ± 1.8%). The conditional risk ratios for five subregions with increased cutoff sL are all greater than 1.0, indicating an increased risk of large precipitation accumulations in the most recent period. For high precipitation accumulations larger than the 99th percentile of accumulation s99, the risk of extreme precipitation over these regions can increase above 20% except for South China. These increases of extreme accumulations can be largely explained by the extended duration of extreme accumulation events, especially for "extremely extreme" precipitation greater than s99. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the physical processes behind summer drought in North China by evaluating moisture and energy budget diagnostics and linking them to anomalous large-scale circulation patterns. Moisture budget analysis reveals that summer drought in North China was caused dynamically by reduced vertical moisture advection due to anomalous subsidence and reduced horizontal moisture advection due to anomalous northeasterly winds. Energy budget analysis shows that reduced latent heating was balanced dynamically by decreased dry static energy (DSE) divergence in the middle-toupper troposphere. Linking these results to previous work, we suggest that summer drought in North China was predicated on co-occurrence of the positive phases of the Eurasian (EU) and Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection patterns, potentially modulated by the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT). In the typical case, the negative phase of the CGT intensified the positive EU-related upper-level cyclone. Resulting upper-level cooling and positive surface feedback imposed a cold-core surface anticyclone that weakened with height. By contrast, when the positive phase of the CGT occurred in tandem with the positive EU and PJ patterns, the anticyclone had a warm core and intensified with height. The two cases were unified by strong subsidence but exhibited opposite meridional advection anomalies. In the cold-core cases, meridional moisture inflow was reduced but meridional DSE export was enhanced, further limiting precipitation while maintaining negative thermal anomalies. In the warm-core case, which only occurred once, enhanced meridional inflow of water vapor supplied moisture for sporadic precipitation while reduced meridional DSE export helped to maintain strong static stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because spring precipitation in East Asia is critical for recharging water resources after dry winters, its spatiotemporal variations and related mechanisms need in-depth research. This study analyzed a leading spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over East Asia for boreal spring (March-May) during 1979 to 2017. We found that a dipole mode dominates the anomalous spring precipitation between southern China and Southeast Asia with significant interannual and decadal variations. The interannual dipole mode is attributable to the eastern Pacific (EP)-type El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) while the decadal dipole mode is related to the decadal variation of the central Pacific (CP)-type ENSO. In the El Niño phases of both time scales, the anticyclonic anomaly over the South China Sea and Philippines causes moisture convergence (divergence) over southern China (Southeast Asia), resulting in positive (negative) precipitation anomalies therein; the opposite occurs in the La Niña phases. The ensemble experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 confirmed that the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the EP- and CP-type ENSO can be the major drivers of the interannual and decadal dipole modes, respectively. About half of 15 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) showed that the El Niño phase of dipole mode will become dominant in the future. The individual models' future projections however considerably vary, implying that there is still large uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southerly wind in the lower troposphere is an essential feature of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation, which is reported to be enhanced under global warming scenarios and interglacial epochs. Based on an analysis of an ensemble of CMIP6 models, this study shows that the magnitude of intensification of the EASM circulation is much smaller under global warming scenarios than during interglacial epochs. Distinct changes in the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) are responsible for the different responses of the EASM circulation. The WNPSH is substantially enhanced during interglacial epochs, which acts to strengthen the southerly wind associated with the EASM on the western flank of the WNPSH. However, the change in the WNPSH is insignificant and cannot strengthen the EASM under global warming scenarios, and the weakly enhanced EASM circulation may be a direct response to intensified heating over the Tibetan Plateau. The land-ocean thermal contrast explains the different responses of the WNPSH. During interglacial epochs, the summertime surface warming over the subtropical North Pacific is much weaker than over Eurasia due to the large thermal inertia of the ocean to increased insolation, and the WNPSH is intensified as a response to the suppressed latent heating over the subtropical North Pacific. The fast response of the WNPSH to abrupt quadrupling of CO2 without sufficient ocean warming is an analog to the interglacial epochs, but it is offset by the effect of slow oceanic warming, resulting in an insignificant change of the WNPSH under global warming scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on the intraseasonal variability of summer and winter monsoon rainfall in the Philippines. The monsoon wind-terrain interaction that gives rise to rainfall in the Philippines leads to a sharp contrast between west and east coast rainfall patterns during summer and winter monsoon seasons, respectively. During the summer monsoon season, the eastward-propagating MJO modulates tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) on MJO phases 5-7. TC rainfall and remote TC precipitation due to Rossby wave response to TC heating induces strong southwesterly flow that enhances moisture transport and brings anomalous rainfall to the western region of the Philippines. On the other hand, during the winter season, an induced Matsuno-Gill-type pattern to the southeast of the Philippines influences the strength of the Asian winter monsoon. Active (inactive) convection in the tropical Maritime Continent and western Pacific during MJO phases 4-6 produces the anomalous Philippine Sea cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation. The cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly leads to an enhanced (weakened) northeast monsoon flow and wet (dry) rainfall anomaly along the eastern Philippines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play an important role in modulating the global water cycle and energy balance and frequently generate high-impact weather events. The majority of existing literature studying MCS activity over East Asia is based on specific case studies and more climatological investigations revealing the precipitation characteristics of MCSs over eastern China are keenly needed. In this study, we use an iterative rain cell tracking method to identify and track MCS precipitation during 2008-16 to investigate regional differences and seasonal variations of MCS precipitation characteristics. Our results show that the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (YRB-ML) receive the largest amount and exhibit the most pronounced seasonal cycle of MCS precipitation in eastern China. MCS precipitation over YRB-ML can exceed 2.6mmday-1 in June, contributing over 30.0% of April-July total rainfall. Particularly long-lived MCSs occur over the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau (ETP), with 25% of MCSs over the ETP persisting for more than 18 h in spring. In addition, spring MCSs feature larger rainfall areas, longer durations, and faster propagation speeds. Summer MCSs have a higher precipitation intensity and a more pronounced diurnal cycle except for southeastern China, where MCSs have similar precipitation intensity in spring and summer. There is less MCS precipitation in autumn, but an MCSprecipitation center over the ETP still persists. MCSs reach peak hourly rainfall intensities during the time of maximum growth (a few hours after genesis), reach their maximum size around 5 h after genesis, and start decaying thereafter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, summer precipitation contributes a major part of the total precipitation amount in a year and has major impacts on society and human life. Whether any changes in summer precipitation are affected by external forcing on the climate system is an important issue. In this study, an optimal fingerprinting method was used to compare the observed changes of total, heavy, moderate, and light precipitation in summer derived from newly homogenized observation data with the simulations from multiple climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The results demonstrate that the anthropogenic forcing signal can be detected and separated from the natural forcing signal in the observed increase of seasonal accumulated precipitation amount for heavy precipitation in summer in China and eastern China (EC). The simulated changes in heavy precipitation are generally consistent with observed change in China but are underestimated in EC. When the changes in precipitation of different intensities are considered simultaneously, the human influence on simultaneous changes in moderate and light precipitation can be detected in China and EC in summer. Changes attributable to anthropogenic forcing explain most of the observed regional changes for all categories of summer precipitation, and natural forcing contributes little. In the future, with increasing anthropogenic influence, the attribution-constrained projection suggests that heavy precipitation in summer will increase more than that from the model raw outputs. Society may therefore face a higher risk of heavy precipitation in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies found a seesaw pattern of summer precipitation between northeast Asia and east Siberia on an interannual time scale, which is associated with an eastward-propagating atmospheric wave train over Eurasia and corresponding water vapor transport circulations. Using a general circulation model with an embedded water-tagging module, the main water vapor sources of the two regions, as well as the relative contributions of each source region to the total precipitation for both the climatological mean and interdecadal variation, are further compared in this study. The model simulation results show that local evaporation, the Pacific Ocean, and East Asia are the dominant moisture sources for northeast Asian precipitation. In contrast, for east Siberia, moisture mainly originates from the Pacific Ocean, northeast Asia, west Siberia, and local evaporation. This suggests that the local evaporation and Pacific Ocean are both crucial to the moisture supply of the two regions, implying the important roles of the land processes and adjacent oceanic sources. In addition, northeast Asia appears to be the major moisture source for east Siberia, whereas east Siberia has weak impacts on the moisture input for northeast Asia. Further analysis finds that the model simulation can capture interdecadal changes in summer precipitation over the two regions around the late 1990s. This interdecadal change is mainly manifested in the moisture supplies from the Pacific Ocean, North Atlantic Ocean, and east Siberia, which suggests a link with the circulation anomalies under the combined impacts of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the mechanisms by which the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) changes in response to non–East Asian (NEA) anthropogenic aerosol forcing by distinguishing the fast direct atmospheric response and slow ocean-mediated response to forcing using a global aerosol–climate coupled model. The results show that NEA aerosol forcing significantly exacerbates the weakening of the EASM due to local aerosol forcing. The fast response is dominant in the weakening of the EASM and an anomalous precipitation pattern over eastern China resembling the "southern flood and northern drought" pattern in the total response to NEA aerosol forcing. Changes in upper-tropospheric temperature caused by the fast response play a major role in the impact of NEA aerosol forcing on the EASM. Anomalous cooling occurs during summer in the upper troposphere (at ~40°N) over East Asia caused by the fast response. This is due to the combined effects of strong eastward cold advection in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes caused by increased aerosol loading in Europe and the resulting change in local meridional heat transport in East Asia. Subsequently, the zonal wind speed changes on either side of the anomalous cooling, and the East Asian subtropical jet shifts equatorward, thereby weakening the EASM. The changes in atmospheric temperature and the local Hadley cell caused by the slow response to NEA aerosol forcing are conducive to strengthening the southwesterly winds over eastern China. Our study suggests the importance of NEA aerosol forcing in driving changes in the EASM on a fast time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given their high carbon uptake, the terrestrial ecosystems in the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) region play an irreplaceable role in the global carbon cycle. Because the rich vegetation growth over East Asia benefits mainly from the sufficient water supply brought by the EASM, which is characterized by a strong intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), the intraseasonal spatiotemporal variations and underlying drivers of photosynthesis activity over East Asia have been comprehensively investigated using the daily gross primary productivity (GPP) and meteorological data. Strong intraseasonal fluctuations of GPP have been identified over the area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers (YYR) with a magnitude of 0.4 gC m−2 day−1. The mean power spectrum suggests that 20–50-day variation is the major component of the intraseasonal GPP anomalies over the YYR during the summers of 1980–2013. The 20–50-day ISO of YYR GPP anomalies is modulated by the local 20–50-day precipitation variation via soil moisture, with precipitation (soil moisture) leading GPP by 10 (7) days. The 20–50-day YYR precipitation anomalies are in turn controlled by tropical ISO signals, particularly the convective activity over the western North Pacific. This leading relationship between the 20–50-day atmospheric ISO and GPP suggests a potential for extended-range predictability of vegetation growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extreme concentration of population over South Asia makes it critical to accurately understand the global warming impact on the South Asian monsoon (SAM), but the complex orography of the region makes future projections of monsoon intensity technically challenging. Here we describe a series of climate projections constructed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for South Asia to dynamically downscale a global warming simulation constructed using the Community Earth System Model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A physics-based miniensemble is employed to investigate the sensitivity of the projected change of the SAM to the implementation of different parameterization schemes in WRF. We analyze not only the changes in mean seasonal precipitation but also the impact of the warming process on precipitation extremes. All projections are characterized by a consistent increase in average monsoon precipitation and a fattening of the tail of the daily rainfall distribution (more than a 50% decrease in the return periods of 50-yr extreme rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century). Further analysis based on one of the WRF physics ensemble members shows that both the average rainfall intensity changes and the extreme precipitation increases are projected to be slightly larger than expectations based upon the Clausius–Clapeyron thermodynamic reference of 7% °C−1 of surface warming in most parts of India. This further increase can be primarily explained by the fact that the surface warming is projected to be smaller than the warming in the midtroposphere, where a significant portion of rain originates, and dynamical effects play only a secondary role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores how the termination of the mei-yu is dynamically linked to the westerlies impinging on the Tibetan Plateau. It is found that the mei-yu stage terminates when the maximum upper-tropospheric westerlies shift beyond the northern edge of the plateau, around 40°N. This termination is accompanied by the disappearance of tropospheric northerlies over northeastern China. The link between the transit of the jet axis across the northern edge of the plateau, the disappearance of northerlies, and termination of the mei-yu holds on a range of time scales from interannual through seasonal and pentad. Diagnostic analysis indicates that the weakening of the meridional moisture contrast and meridional wind convergence, mainly resulting from the disappearance of northerlies, causes the demise of the mei-yu front. The authors propose that the westerlies migrating north of the plateau and consequent weakening of the extratropical northerlies triggers the mei-yu termination. Model simulations are employed to test the causality between the jet and the orographic downstream northerlies by repositioning the northern edge of the plateau. As the plateau edge extends northward, orographic forcing on the westerlies strengthens, leading to persistent strong downstream northerlies and a prolonged mei-yu. Idealized simulations with a dry dynamical core further demonstrate the dynamical link between the weakening of orographically forced downstream northerlies with the positioning of the jet from south to north of the plateau. Changes in the magnitude of orographically forced stationary waves are proposed to explain why the downstream northerlies disappear when the jet axis migrates beyond the northern edge of the plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal summer western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) exhibits a remarkable decadal shift in its spatial pattern and periodicity around the late 1990s. In the former period, the WPSH is primarily characterized by a large-scale uniform pattern over Asia and its surrounding area with an oscillating period of ~4–5 yr. However, the WPSH-related atmospheric circulations shift to a dipole structure and oscillate at ~2–3 yr in the recent period. We found that this decadal shift is largely contributed by the ENSO regime change. During the former period, the tropical Pacific was dominated by the conventional eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with an oscillating period of ~4–5 yr. Strong anticyclone anomalies usually are maintained over the western North Pacific (WNP) during the EP El Niño decaying summer, accounting for most of the WPSH temporal and spatial variability. In contrast, the recent period features much more frequent occurrence of central Pacific (CP) El Niño events in the tropical Pacific with a ~2–3-yr oscillating period. A dipole structure in the WNP and Indian Ocean is evident during both developing and decaying summers of CP El Niño, consistent with the WPSH leading mode after the late 1990s. The results have important implications for seasonal prediction of the WPSH and associated Asian summer climate anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear regression model is constructed to predict the April–May precipitation in central China (PCC) with a lead time of 1–2 months. This model not only reproduces the historical April–May PCC from 1985 to 2006 but also demonstrates strong robustness and reliability during the independent test period of 2007–16. Two preceding factors are selected to build the model, the February–March Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (IOSST), indicating a synergistic impact of Arctic and tropical signals on the midlatitude climate. A possible mechanism of ASO changes affecting Chinese precipitation is that the stratospheric circulation anomalies related to ASO changes may downward influence circulation over North Pacific, and then extend westward to influence East Asia, leading to changes in Chinese precipitation. Anomalies of the other predictor, IOSST, are associated with a baroclinic structure over central China. For example, warm IOSST causes anomalous convection over central China and affects the warm and humid airstream flowing from the Pacific to China. These processes related to the two predictors result in the April–May PCC anomalies. Sensitivity experiments and a transient experiment covering a longer period than the observations/reanalysis support the results from our statistical analysis based on observations. It implies that this statistical model could be applied to the output of seasonal forecasts from observations and improve the forecasting ability of April–May PCC in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we investigate the response of boreal spring precipitation over southern China (SPSC) to central Pacific (CP) El Niño based on observational datasets. While there is enhanced precipitation over southern China during the decaying boreal spring of eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, so far no clear precipitation response has been detected during the same decaying stage for CP El Niño composites. Here we show that around half of the CP El Niño events coincide with enhanced SPSC (wet CP El Niño), while the other half are accompanied by reduced SPSC (dry CP El Niño). These two types of CP El Niño events bear dramatically different evolution features in their respective tropical sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns. Wet CP El Niño events are characterized by an SSTA longitudinal position confined to the tropical central-eastern Pacific. In contrast, dry CP El Niño events exhibit a clear westward propagation of SSTAs during their evolution, with maximum SSTAs located to the west of the date line after their mature phase. These different longitudinal positions of positive SSTAs during their decaying phase result in distinct meridional structures of the tropical Pacific convection anomalies as well as the ENSO combination mode (C-mode) response. An anomalous low-level anticyclone is evident over the western North Pacific during wet CP El Niño events during their decaying phase, while an anomalous cyclonic circulation is found for dry CP El Niño events. We emphasize that the impacts of CP El Niño on the SPSC depend crucially on the simultaneous zonal location of warm SSTAs in the tropical Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on the migratory tropical cyclones (TCs) that form in the western North Pacific (WNP) and move into the South China Sea (SCS). Their movements are found to be modulated differently by intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and climatological circulations through the TC-active months. The modulating processes of climatological circulations vary from a westward intensifying western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in July and August to a southeastward extending monsoon trough (MT) in September, and a strengthening equatorial trough (ET) in October and November. In July and August, enhanced tropical ISO convections in the SCS are accompanied by a 30–60-day anomalous anticyclone to the northeast of the SCS. The migratory TCs move along the southern peripheries of this anomalous anticyclone and the WPSH into the SCS. In September, enhanced ISO convections in the SCS coincide with a meridional 30–60-day circulation pair with an anomalous anticyclone to the north of 20°N and an anomalous cyclone to the south. TCs move in between this meridional 30–60-day circulation pair and the northern periphery of the MT toward the SCS. In October and November, enhanced ISO convections in the SCS and WNP coexist with an overlying 30–60-day anomalous cyclone and an intensified ET. The migratory TCs move along the northern sections of this 30–60-day anomalous cyclone and the ET toward the SCS. With a different track, TCs recurving northward from the tropical WNP into the region east of Taiwan are modulated by completely different variability features of the 30–60-day ISO and climatological circulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is known to produce too little total rainfall on average over India during the summer monsoon period, when assessed for multiyear climate simulations. We investigate how quickly this dry bias appears by assessing the 5-day operational forecasts produced by the MetUM for six different years. It is found that the MetUM shows a drying tendency across the five days of the forecasts, for all of the six years (which correspond to two different model versions). We then calculate each term in the moisture budget, for a region covering southern and central India, where the dry bias is worst in both climate simulations and weather forecasts. By looking at how the terms vary with forecast lead time, we are able to identify biases in the weather forecasts that have been previously identified in climate simulations using the same model, and we attempt to quantify how these biases lead to a reduction in total rainfall. In particular, an anticyclonic bias develops to the east of India throughout the forecast, and it has a complex effect on the moisture available over the peninsula, and a reduction in the wind speed into the west of the region appears after about 3 days, indicative of upstream effects. In addition, we find a new bias that the air advected from the west is too dry from very early in the forecast, and this has an important effect on the rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia (CA) is subjected to a large variability of precipitation. This study presents a statistical model, relating precipitation anomalies in three subregions of CA in the cold season (November–March) with various predictors in the preceding October. Promising forecast skill is achieved for two subregions covering 1) Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and southern Kazakhstan and 2) Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. ENSO in October is identified as the major predictor. Eurasian snow cover and the quasi-biennial oscillation further improve the forecast performance. To understand the physical mechanisms, an analysis of teleconnections between these predictors and the wintertime circulation over CA is conducted. The correlation analysis of predictors and large-scale circulation indices suggests a seasonal persistence of tropical circulation modes and a dynamical forcing of the westerly circulation by snow cover variations over Eurasia. An EOF analysis of pressure and humidity patterns allows separating the circulation variability over CA into westerly and tropical modes and confirms that the identified predictors affect the respective circulation characteristics. Based on the previously established weather type classification for CA, the predictors are investigated with regard to their effect on the regional circulation. The results suggest a modification of the Hadley cell due to ENSO variations, with enhanced moisture supply from the Arabian Gulf during El Niño. They further indicate an influence of Eurasian snow cover on the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Northern Hemispheric Rossby wave tracks. Positive anomalies favor weather types associated with dry conditions, while negative anomalies promote the formation of a quasi-stationary trough over CA, which typically occurs during positive AO conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Western disturbances (WDs) are synoptic-scale cyclonic weather systems advected over Pakistan and northern India by the subtropical westerly jet stream. There, they are responsible for most of the winter precipitation, which is crucial for agriculture of the rabi crop as well for as more extreme precipitation events, which can lead to local flooding and avalanches. Despite their importance, there has not yet been an attempt to objectively determine the fate of WDs in future climate GCMs. Here, a tracking algorithm is used to build up a catalog of WDs in both CMIP5 historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments of the future. It is shown that in business-as-usual (RCP8.5) future climate simulations, WD frequency falls by around 15% by the end of the twenty-first century, with the largest relative changes coming in pre- and postmonsoon months. Meanwhile, mean WD intensity will decrease, with central vorticity expected to become less cyclonic by about 12% over the same period. Changes in WD frequency are attributed to the projected widening and weakening of the winter subtropical jet as well as decreasing meridional wind shear and midtropospheric baroclinic vorticity tendency, which also explain the changes in intensity. The impact of these changes on regional precipitation is explored. The decline in WD frequency and intensity will cause a decrease in mean winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India amounting to about 15% of the mean—subject to the ability of the models to represent the responsible processes. The effect on extreme precipitation events, however, remains unclear. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates future changes in the early summer precipitation characteristics around Japan using changes in the large-scale environment, by combining Global Precipitation Measurement precipitation radar observations and phase 5 of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project climate model large-scale projections. Analyzing satellite-based data, we first relate precipitation in three types of rain events (small, organized, and midlatitude), which are identified via their characteristics, to the large-scale environment. Two environmental fields are chosen to determine the large-scale conditions of the precipitation: the sea surface temperature and the midlevel large-scale vertical velocity. The former is related to the lower-tropospheric thermal instability, while the latter affects precipitation via moistening/drying of the midtroposphere. Consequently, favorable conditions differ between the three types in terms of these two environmental fields. Using these precipitation–environment relationships, we then reconstruct the precipitation distributions for each type with reference to the two environmental indices in climate models for the present and future climates. Future changes in the reconstructed precipitation are found to vary widely between the three types in association with the large-scale environment. In more than 90% of models, the region affected by organized-type precipitation will expand northward, leading to a substantial increase in this type of precipitation near Japan along the Sea of Japan, and in northern and eastern Japan on the Pacific side, where its present amount is relatively small. This result suggests an elevated risk of heavy rainfall in those regions because the maximum precipitation intensity is more intense in organized-type precipitation than in the other two types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the interdecadal variation of precipitation over the Hengduan Mountains (HM) during rainy seasons from various reanalysis and observational datasets. Based on a moving t test and Lepage test, an obvious rainfall decrease is identified around 2004/05. The spatial distribution of the rainfall changes exhibits large and significant precipitation deficits over the southern HM, with notable anomalous lower-level easterly divergent winds along the southern foothills of the Himalayas (SFH). The anomalous easterlies are located at the northern edge of two cyclones, with two centers of positive rainfall anomalies over the west coast of India (WCI) and the Bay of Bengal (BOB). Observational evidence and numerical experiments demonstrate that the decadal changes of SST over the WP and WIO suppress rainfall over the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) through large-scale circulation adjustment. The EIO dry anomalies trigger the cross-equatorial anticyclonic wind anomalies as a Rossby wave response, and further cause anomalous meridional circulation and moisture transport over the WCI and BOB, favoring the rainfall increase there. The anomalous easterlies at the northern edge of two cyclones induced by the wet anomalies–related heating cause the divergence anomalies along the SFH, resulting in the reduction of precipitation in the HM. In turn, the two anomalous cyclones and dry anomalies have positive feedback on the wet and easterly wind anomalies, respectively, emphasizing the importance of the circulation–heating interaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predictability of spring (March–May) precipitation over East China is investigated, based on the February-start hindcasts of eight coupled models from DEMETER and ENSEMBLES during 1960–2001. Five out of the eight models exhibit significantly increased predictability of central East China spring precipitation (CECSP) after the late 1970s. The mechanism analysis indicates that CECSP variability is closely related to a meridional dipole vorticity pattern at 200 hPa and southerly wind at 850 hPa over East Asia, whose prediction skill increased significantly around the late 1970s, consistent with the changes in CECSP predictability. Observational analysis indicates that the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans experienced a notable decadal change around the late 1970s. After the decadal change, the tropical SST has an enhanced impact on the CECSP-related East Asian dipole vorticity pattern at the upper level and on the western North Pacific anticyclone at the lower level. The five models can adequately reproduce the observed enhanced connection between the tropical SST and East Asian atmospheric circulation after the late 1970s, consequently showing higher predictability of East Asian atmospheric circulation and CECSP. However, the other three models cannot reproduce the relationship between the tropical SST and East Asian atmospheric circulation; therefore, CECSP predictability in these models remains low during the entire period. The increased predictability is valuable for current dynamical seasonal prediction for central East China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled climate system models consistently show that the low-level southerly wind associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is enhanced under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, and the enhanced EASM was attributed to the enhanced land–sea thermal contrast by previous studies. Based on a comparison of the global warming scenarios with the present-day climate in an ensemble of 30 coupled models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we show evidence that changes in land–sea thermal contrast cannot explain the enhanced EASM circulation in terms of the seasonality. Indeed, the enhanced low-level southerly wind over East Asia is associated with a large-scale anomalous cyclone around the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and numerical simulation by the Linear Baroclinic Model suggests that the enhanced latent heating over the TP associated with enhanced precipitation is responsible for this low-level cyclone anomaly and the enhanced EASM circulation projected by the coupled models. Moisture budget analysis shows that enhanced hydrological recycling and enhanced vertical moisture advection due to increased specific humidity have the largest contribution to the increased precipitation over the TP, and more than half of the intermodel uncertainty in the projected change of EASM circulation is associated with the uncertainty in the changes of precipitation over the TP. Therefore, the TP plays an essential role in enhancing the EASM circulation under global warming through enhanced latent heating over the TP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dataset from 763 national Reference Climate and Basic Meteorological Stations (RCBMS) was used to analyze surface air temperature (SAT) change in mainland China. The monthly historical observational records had been adjusted for urbanization bias existing in the data series of size-varied urban stations, after they were corrected for data inhomogeneities mainly caused by relocation and instrumentation. The standard procedures for creating area-averaged temperature time series and for calculating linear trend were used. Analyses were made for annual and seasonal mean temperature. Annual mean SAT in mainland China as a whole rose by 1.24°C for the last 55 years, with a warming rate of 0.23°C decade−1. This was close to the warming of 1.09°C observed in global mean land SAT over the period 1951–2010. Compared to the SAT before correction, after-corrected data showed that the urbanization bias had caused an overestimate of the annual warming rate of more than 19.6% during 1961–2015. The winter, autumn, spring, and summer mean warming rates were 0.28°, 0.23°, 0.23°, and 0.15°C decade−1, respectively. The spatial patterns of the annual and seasonal mean SAT trends also exhibited an obvious difference from those of the previous analyses. The largest contrast was a weak warming area appearing in central parts of mainland China, which included a small part of southwestern North China, the northwestern Yangtze River, and the eastern part of Southwest China. The annual mean warming trends in Northeast and North China obviously decreased compared to the previous analyses, which caused a relatively more significant cooling in Northeast China after 1998 under the background of global warming slowdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale circulation anomalies associated with extreme heat (EH) in South Korea and southern–central Japan are examined using data during the time period 1979–2016. Statistical analysis indicates that EH days in these two regions are concentrated in July and August and tend to occur simultaneously. These EH days are therefore combined to explore the physical mechanisms leading to their occurrence. The composite results indicate that the anomalous atmospheric warming during EH days is dominantly caused by a significant subsidence anomaly, which is associated with a deep anomalous anticyclone over East Asia. Further investigation of the evolution of circulation anomalies suggests that the anomalous anticyclone over East Asia related to EH is primarily initiated by wave trains originating from upstream regions, which propagate eastward along the Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere. These wave trains can be categorized into two types that are characterized by the precursor anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies, respectively, over central Asia. The distinction between these two types of wave train can be explained by the wavenumbers of the Rossby waves, which are modulated by both the intensity and the shape of the Asian westerly jet as the background basic flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]