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The climate system responds to changes in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases or aerosols through rapid processes, triggered within hours and days, and through slower processes, where the full response may only be seen after centuries. In this paper, we aim to elucidate the mechanisms operating on time scales of hours to years to better understand the response of key climate quantities such as energy fluxes, temperature, and precipitation after a sudden increase in either carbon dioxide (CO2), black carbon (BC), or sulfate (SO4) aerosols. The results are based on idealized simulations from six global climate models. We find that the effect of changing ocean temperatures kicks in after a couple of months. Rapid precipitation reductions start occurring instantly and are established after just a few days. For BC, they constitute most of the equilibrium response. For CO2 and SO4, the magnitude of the precipitation response gradually increases as surface warming/cooling evolves, and for CO2, the sign of the response changes from negative to positive after 2 years. Rapid cloud adjustments are typically established within the first 24 h, and while the magnitude of cloud feedbacks for CO2 and SO4 increases over time, the geographical pattern of the equilibrium cloud change is present already after the first year. While there are model differences, our work underscores the overall similarity of the major time-varying processes and responses simulated by current global models and hence the robustness of key features of simulated responses to historical and future anthropogenic forcing. Significance Statement: How does the climate system respond to a change in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases or aerosols? Some processes are rapid, responding within hours and days. Others are slow, and the full response to a forcing of the climate may only be seen after centuries. In this paper, we use six global climate models to investigate the time scales of climate responses to carbon dioxide, black carbon, and sulfate, focusing on key climate quantities, such as temperature, precipitation, and clouds. While there are ample model differences, our work underscores the overall similarity of the major time-varying processes and responses simulated by current global models and hence the robustness of key features of simulated responses to historical and future anthropogenic forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that joint temperature-precipitation information over a global domain provides a more accurate estimate of aerosol forced responses in climate models than does any other combination of temperature, precipitation, or sea level pressure. This fact is demonstrated using a new quantity called potential detectability, which measures the extent to which a forced response can be detected in a model. In particular, this measure can be evaluated independently of observations and therefore permits efficient exploration of a large number of variable combinations before performing optimal fingerprinting on observations. This paper also shows that the response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing can be separated from that of other forcings using only spatial structure alone, leaving the time variation of the response to be inferred from data, thereby demonstrating that temporal information is not necessary for detection. The spatial structure of the forced response is derived by maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio. For single variables, the north-south hemispheric gradient and equator-to-pole latitudinal gradient are important spatial structures for detecting anthropogenic aerosols in some models but not all. Sea level pressure is not an independent detection variable because it is derived partly from surface temperature. In no case does sea level pressure significantly enhance potential detectability beyond that already possible using surface temperature. Including seasonal or land-sea contrast information does not significantly enhance detectability of anthropogenic aerosol responses relative to annual means over global domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (AR) are narrow bands of strong horizontal transport of water vapor in the midlatitudes that can cause extreme precipitation, which contributes to beneficial water supply and sometimes flooding. The precipitation productivity of an AR is affected by microphysical processes, including the influence of aerosols. Earlier case studies have shown that some ARs over the North Pacific Ocean contain dust from Africa and Asia that can strongly influence precipitation by acting as ice nuclei. This paper explores how commonly dust and ARs occur together, or in close proximity. A ''dust score'' is introduced to characterize the dustiness of the environment associated with ARs by using satellite-based observations. This method is applied to days on which one or more ARs made landfall along the west coast of the United States between 2001 and 2018. The dust score is used to describe the seasonality and year-to-year variability of dustyenvironment ARs. Dusty ARs occur primarily in the early spring (March-April), and dust is preferentially found within the warm sector of AR-associated extratropical cyclones and is also enhanced in the cold sector. Year-to-year variability in dust score is dependent more on year-to-year variability in dust than on the frequency ofARdays. This year-to-year variability is also strongly related to correlations between the frequency of ARs and the dustiness of the northeastern Pacific, motivating additional investigation into potential dynamical association between dust and ARs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), updates NASA's previous satellite-era (1980 onward) reanalysis system to include additional observations and improvements to the Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), Earth system model. As a major step toward a full Integrated Earth Systems Analysis (IESA), in addition to meteorological observations, MERRA-2 now includes assimilation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from various ground- and space-based remote sensing platforms. Here, in the first of a pair of studies, the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation is documented, including a description of the prognostic model (GEOS-5 coupled to the GOCART aerosol module), aerosol emissions, and the quality control of ingested observations. Initial validation and evaluation of the analyzed AOD fields are provided using independent observations from ground, aircraft, and shipborne instruments. The positive impact of the AOD assimilation on simulated aerosols is demonstrated by comparing MERRA-2 aerosol fields to an identical control simulation that does not include AOD assimilation. After showing the AOD evaluation, this paper takes a first look at aerosol-climate interactions by examining the shortwave, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect. The companion paper (Part II) evaluates and validates available MERRA-2 aerosol properties not directly impacted by the AOD assimilation (e.g., aerosol vertical distribution and absorption). Importantly, while highlighting the skill of the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation products, both studies point out caveats that must be considered when using this new reanalysis product for future studies of aerosols and their interactions with weather and climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines hydrological variability and its changes in two different versions of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and forced with estimates of future increases of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. This paper is the second part, documenting potential changes in variability as greenhouse gases increase. The variance changes are examined using an ensemble of 8 transient integrations for an older model version and 10 transient integrations for a newer model. Monthly and annual data are used to compute the mean and variance changes. Emphasis is placed on computing and analyzing the variance changes for the middle of the twenty-first century and compared with those found in the respective control integrations. The hydrologic cycle intensifies because of the increase of greenhouse gases. In general, precipitation variance increases in most places. This is the case virtually everywhere the mean precipitation rate increases and many places where the precipitation decreases. The precipitation rate variance decreases in the subtropics, where the mean precipitation rate also decreases. The increased precipitation rate and variance, in middle to higher latitudes during late fall, winter, and early spring leads to increased runoff and its variance during that period. On the other hand, the variance changes of soil moisture are more complicated, because soil moisture has both a lower and upper bound that tends to reduce its fluctuations. This is particularly true in middle to higher latitudes during winter and spring, when the soil moisture is close to its saturation value at many locations. Therefore, changes in its variance are limited. Soil moisture variance change is positive during the summer, when the mean soil moisture decreases and is close to the middle of its allowable range. In middle to high northern latitudes, an increase in runoff and its variance during late winter and spring plus the decrease in soil moisture and its variance during summer lend support to the hypothesis stated in other publications that a warmer climate can cause an increasing frequency of both excessive discharge and drier events, depending on season and latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological sensitivity is the change in global-mean precipitation per degree of global-mean temperature change. This paper shows that the hydrological sensitivity of the response to anthropogenic aerosol forcing is distinct from that of the combined response to all other forcings and that this difference is sufficient to infer the associated cooling in global-mean temperature. This result is demonstrated using temperature and precipitation data generated by climate models and is robust across different climate models. Remarkably, greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling can be estimated in a model without using any spatial or temporal gradient information in the response, provided temperature data are augmented by precipitation data. Over the late twentieth century, the hydrological sensitivities of climate models differ significantly from that of observations. Whether this discrepancy can be attributed to observational error, which is substantial as different estimates of global-mean precipitation are not even significantly correlated with each other, or to model error is unclear. The results highlight the urgency to construct accurate estimates of global precipitation from past observations and for reducing model uncertainty in hydrological sensitivity. This paper also clarifies that previous estimates of hydrological sensitivity are limited in that standard regression methods neglect temperature-precipitation relations that occur through internal variability. An alternative method for estimating hydrological sensitivity that overcomes this limitation is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A full understanding of the causes of the severe drought seen in the Sahel in the latter part of the twentieth-century remains elusive some 25 yr after the height of the event. Previous studies have suggested that this drying trend may be explained by either decadal modes of natural variability or by human-driven emissions (primarily aerosols), but these studies lacked a sufficiently large number of models to attribute one cause over the other. In this paper, signatures of both aerosol and greenhouse gas changes on Sahel rainfall are illustrated. These idealized responses are used to interpret the results of historical Sahel rainfall changes from two very large ensembles of fully coupled climate models, which both sample uncertainties arising from internal variability and model formulation. The sizes of these ensembles enable the relative role of human-driven changes and natural variability on historic Sahel rainfall to be assessed. The paper demonstrates that historic aerosol changes are likely to explain most of the underlying 1940-80 drying signal and a notable proportion of the more pronounced 1950-80 drying. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recently developed GFDL Atmospheric Model version 3 (AM3), an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), incorporates a prognostic treatment of cloud drop number to simulate the aerosol indirect effect. Since cloud drop activation depends on cloud-scale vertical velocities, which are not reproduced in present-day GCMs, additional assumptions on the subgrid variability are required to implement a local activation parameterization into a GCM. This paper describes the subgrid activation assumptions in AM3 and explores sensitivities by constructing alternate configurations. These alternate model configurations exhibit only small differences in their present-day climatology. However, the total anthropogenic radiative flux perturbation (RFP) between present-day and preindustrial conditions varies by ±±50%% from the reference, because of a large difference in the magnitude of the aerosol indirect effect. The spread in RFP does not originate directly from the subgrid assumptions but indirectly through the cloud retuning necessary to maintain a realistic radiation balance. In particular, the paper shows a linear correlation between the choice of autoconversion threshold radius and the RFP. Climate sensitivity changes only minimally between the reference and alternate configurations. If implemented in a fully coupled model, these alternate configurations would therefore likely produce substantially different warming from preindustrial to present day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), is NASA's latest reanalysis for the satellite era (1980 onward) using the Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5), Earth system model. MERRA-2 provides several improvements over its predecessor (MERRA-1), including aerosol assimilation for the entire period. MERRA-2 assimilates bias-corrected aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments. Additionally, MERRA-2 assimilates (non bias corrected) AOD from the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer over bright surfaces and AOD from Aerosol Robotic Network sunphotometer stations. This paper, the second of a pair, summarizes the efforts to assess the quality of the MERRA-2 aerosol products. First, MERRA-2 aerosols are evaluated using independent observations. It is shown that the MERRA-2 absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) and ultraviolet aerosol index (AI) compare well with Ozone Monitoring Instrument observations. Next, aerosol vertical structure and surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are evaluated using available satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observations. While MERRA-2 generally compares well to these observations, the assimilation cannot correct for all deficiencies in the model (e.g., missing emissions). Such deficiencies can explain many of the biases with observations. Finally, a focus is placed on several major aerosol events to illustrate successes and weaknesses of the AOD assimilation: the Mount Pinatubo eruption, a Saharan dust transport episode, the California Rim Fire, and an extreme pollution event over China. The article concludes with a summary that points to best practices for using the MERRA-2 aerosol reanalysis in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kretzschmar et al., in a comment in 2017, use the spread in the output of aerosol-climate models to argue that the models refute the hypothesis (presented in a paper by Stevens in 2015) that for the mid-twentieth-century warming to be consistent with observations, then the present-day aerosol forcing, must be less negative than −1 W m−2. The main point of contention is the nature of the relationship between global SO2 emissions and In contrast to the concave (log-linear) relationship used by Stevens and in earlier studies, whereby becomes progressively less sensitive to SO2 emissions, some models suggest a convex relationship, which would imply a less negative lower bound. The model that best exemplifies this difference, and that is most clearly in conflict with the hypothesis of Stevens, does so because of an implausible aerosol response to the initial rise in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions in East and South Asia-already in 1975 this model's clear-sky reflectance from anthropogenic aerosol over the North Pacific exceeds present-day estimates of the clear-sky reflectance by the total aerosol. The authors perform experiments using a new (observationally constrained) climatology of anthropogenic aerosols to further show that the effects of changing patterns of aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions during the late twentieth century have, for the same global emissions, relatively little effect on These findings suggest that the behavior Kretzschmar et al. identify as being in conflict with the lower bound in Stevens arises from an implausible relationship between SO2 emissions and and thus provides little basis for revising this lower bound. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), is the latest atmospheric reanalysis of the modern satellite era produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 assimilates observation types not available to its predecessor, MERRA, and includes updates to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and analysis scheme so as to provide a viable ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA's terminus. While addressing known limitations of MERRA, MERRA-2 is also intended to be a development milestone for a future integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) currently under development at GMAO. This paper provides an overview of the MERRA-2 system and various performance metrics. Among the advances in MERRA-2 relevant to IESA are the assimilation of aerosol observations, several improvements to the representation of the stratosphere including ozone, and improved representations of cryospheric processes. Other improvements in the quality of MERRA-2 compared with MERRA include the reduction of some spurious trends and jumps related to changes in the observing system and reduced biases and imbalances in aspects of the water cycle. Remaining deficiencies are also identified. Production of MERRA-2 began in June 2014 in four processing streams and converged to a single near-real-time stream in mid-2015. MERRA-2 products are accessible online through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic super-eruptions have been theorized to cause severe global cooling, with the 74 kya Toba eruption purported to have driven humanity to near-extinction. However, this eruption left little physical evidence of its severity and models diverge greatly on the magnitude of post-eruption cooling. A key factor controlling the super-eruption climate response is the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol, a quantity that left no physical record and is poorly constrained by models. Here we show that this knowledge gap severely limits confidence in model-based estimates of super-volcanic cooling, and accounts for much of the disagreement among prior studies. By simulating super-eruptions over a range of aerosol sizes, we obtain global mean responses varying from extreme cooling all the way to the previously unexplored scenario of widespread warming. We also use an interactive aerosol model to evaluate the scaling between injected sulfur mass and aerosol size. Combining our model results with the available paleoclimate constraints applicable to large eruptions, we estimate that global volcanic cooling is unlikely to exceed 1.5°C no matter how massive the stratospheric injection. Super-eruptions, we conclude, may be incapable of altering global temperatures substantially more than the largest Common Era eruptions. This lack of exceptional cooling could explain why no single super-eruption event has resulted in firm evidence of widespread catastrophe for humans or ecosystems. Significance Statement: Whether volcanic super-eruptions pose a threat to humanity remains a subject of debate, with climate models disagreeing on the magnitude of global post-eruption cooling. We demonstrate that this disagreement primarily stems from a lack of constraint on the size of volcanic sulfate aerosol particles. By evaluating the range of aerosol size scenarios, we demonstrate that eruptions may be incapable of causing more than 1.5°C cooling no matter how much sulfur they inject into the stratosphere. This could explain why archaeological records provide no evidence of increased human mortality following the Toba super-eruption. Further, we raise the unexplored possibility that the largest super-eruptions could cause global-scale warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S) is an important midtropospheric feature critical to understanding the tropical convective system over central Africa and the aerosol–cloud interactions over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. However, it remains unclear how well models represent the AEJ-S and its influence on aerosol transport, clouds, and precipitation distribution. Here, we use ground- and satellite-based observations and reanalysis datasets to assess the representation of AEJ-S in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models between September and October during the peak of midtropospheric winds, aerosol transport, clouds, and precipitation. We find that most CMIP6 models have difficulty accurately simulating the strength, position, and spatial distribution of the AEJ-S. Specifically, the AEJ-S is relatively weaker and at a slightly lower altitude in the ensemble of CMIP6 models than represented by observation and reanalysis datasets. To assess the influence of the misrepresented the AEJ-S on CMIP6-simulated aerosol, clouds, and precipitation distributions, we performed composite analyses using models with low and high biases based on the estimates of their midtropospheric easterly wind speed. We find that the misrepresentation of the AEJ-S in CMIP6 models is associated with the overestimation of clouds and precipitation over central Africa, the underestimation of clouds over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, and the limitation of aerosol transport over the continent or the deviation of its spatial distribution from the typical zonal transport over the Atlantic Ocean. Because aerosols, clouds, and precipitation are important components of the regional climate system, we conclude that accurate representation of the AEJ-S is essential over central Africa and the southeast Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of absorbing aerosols on global climate are not completely understood. This paper presents the results of idealized experiments conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4), coupled to a slab ocean model (CAM4-SOM) to simulate the climate response to increases in tropospheric black carbon aerosols (BC) by direct and semidirect effects. CAM4-SOM was forced with 0, 1×, 2×, 5×, and 10× an estimate of the present day concentration of BC while maintaining the estimated present day global spatial and vertical distribution. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing of BC in these experiments is positive (warming) and increases linearly as the BC burden increases. The total semidirect effect for the 1 × BC experiment is positive but becomes increasingly negative for higher BC concentrations. The global-average surface temperature response is found to be a linear function of the TOA radiative forcing. The climate sensitivity to BC from these experiments is estimated to be 0.42 K W−1 m2 when the semidirect effects are accounted for and 0.22 K W−1 m2 with only the direct effects considered. Global-average precipitation decreases linearly as BC increases, with a precipitation sensitivity to atmospheric absorption of 0.4% W−1 m2. The hemispheric asymmetry of BC also causes an increase in southward cross-equatorial heat transport and a resulting northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone in the simulations at a rate of 4° PW−1. Global-average mid- and high-level clouds decrease, whereas the low-level clouds increase linearly with BC. The increase in marine stratocumulus cloud fraction over the southern tropical Atlantic is caused by increased BC-induced diabatic heating of the free troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian Ocean stands out as the region where the state-of-the-art decadal climate predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) perform the best worldwide for forecast times ranging from the second to the ninth year, according to correlation and root-mean-square error (RMSE) scores. This paper investigates the reasons for this high skill by assessing the contributions from the initial conditions, greenhouse gases, solar activity, and volcanic aerosols. The comparison between the SST correlation skill in uninitialized historical simulations and hindcasts initialized from estimates of the observed climate state shows that the high Indian Ocean skill is largely explained by the varying radiative forcings, the latter finding being supported by a set of additional sensitivity experiments. The long-term warming trend is the primary contributor to the high skill, though not the only one. Volcanic aerosols bring additional skill in this region as shown by the comparison between initialized hindcasts taking into account or not the effect of volcanic stratospheric aerosols and by the drop in skill when filtering out their effect in hindcasts that take them into account. Indeed, the Indian Ocean is shown to be the region where the ratio of the internally generated over the externally forced variability is the lowest, where the amplitude of the internal variability has been estimated by removing the effect of long-term warming trend and volcanic aerosols by a multiple least squares linear regression on observed SSTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper, Schwartz et al. suggest that 1) over the last century the earth has warmed less than expected, and they discuss several factors that could explain the discrepancy, including climate sensitivity estimates and aerosol forcing. Schwartz et al. then continue to 2) estimate the allowed carbon emissions for stabilization of global temperature, and find that given the uncertainty in the climate sensitivity even the sign of these allowed carbon emissions is unknown, implying that past emissions may already have committed the earth to 2°C warming for a best-estimate value of climate sensitivity of 3 K. Both of these conclusions in the Schwartz et al. study are revisited herein, and it is shown that 1) in contrast to Schwartz et al., current assessments of climate sensitivity, radiative forcing, and thermal disequilibrium do not support the claim of a discrepancy between expected and observed warming; and 2) the allowed emissions estimated by Schwartz et al. are in conflict with results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models and are strongly underestimated due to erroneous assumptions about the behavior of the carbon cycle and a confusion of the relevant time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the authors' response to the comments made on the article "Why Hasn't Earth Warmed As Much As Expected?'' by Reto Knutti and Gian-Kasper Platter (KP). They explain that the focus of their calculation was on admissible carbon emissions. They are convinced that the identification of the warming disparity and the examination of its possible causes contribute to understanding the consequences of the increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a coupled general circulation model (CM3) for the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea ice. The goal of CM3 is to address emerging issues in climate change, including aerosol--cloud interactions, chemistry--climate interactions, and coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere. The model is also designed to serve as the physical system component of earth system models and models for decadal prediction in the near-term future--for example, through improved simulations in tropical land precipitation relative to earlier-generation GFDL models. This paper describes the dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component (AM3) of this model. Relative to GFDL AM2, AM3 includes new treatments of deep and shallow cumulus convection, cloud droplet activation by aerosols, subgrid variability of stratiform vertical velocities for droplet activation, and atmospheric chemistry driven by emissions with advective, convective, and turbulent transport. AM3 employs a cubed-sphere implementation of a finite-volume dynamical core and is coupled to LM3, a new land model with ecosystem dynamics and hydrology. Its horizontal resolution is approximately 200 km, and its vertical resolution ranges approximately from 70 m near the earth''s surface to 1 to 1.5 km near the tropopause and 3 to 4 km in much of the stratosphere. Most basic circulation features in AM3 are simulated as realistically, or more so, as in AM2. In particular, dry biases have been reduced over South America. In coupled mode, the simulation of Arctic sea ice concentration has improved. AM3 aerosol optical depths, scattering properties, and surface clear-sky downward shortwave radiation are more realistic than in AM2. The simulation of marine stratocumulus decks remains problematic, as in AM2. The most intense 0.2%% of precipitation rates occur less frequently in AM3 than observed. The last two decades of the twentieth century warm in CM3 by 0.32°°C relative to 1881--1920. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Goddard Institute for Space Studies analyses of observations show warming of 0.56°° and 0.52°°C, respectively, over this period. CM3 includes anthropogenic cooling by aerosol--cloud interactions, and its warming by the late twentieth century is somewhat less realistic than in CM2.1, which warmed 0.66°°C but did not include aerosol--cloud interactions. The improved simulation of the direct aerosol effect (apparent in surface clear-sky downward radiation) in CM3 evidently acts in concert with its simulation of cloud--aerosol interactions to limit greenhouse gas warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the previous cloud-resolving modeling study concerning the impact of cloud microphysics on convective--radiative quasi equilibrium (CRQE) over a surface with fixed characteristics and prescribed solar input, both mimicking the mean conditions on earth. The current study applies sophisticated double-moment warm-rain and ice microphysics schemes, which allow for a significantly more realistic representation of the impact of aerosols on precipitation processes and on the coupling between clouds and radiative transfer. Two contrasting cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) characteristics are assumed, representing pristine and polluted conditions, as well as contrasting representations of the effects of entrainment and mixing on the mean cloud droplet size. In addition, four sets of sensitivity simulations are also performed with changes that provide a reference for the main simulation set. As in the previous study, the CRQE mimics the estimates of globally and annually averaged water and energy fluxes across the earth''s atmosphere. There are some differences from the previous study, however, consistent with the slightly lower water vapor content in the troposphere and significantly reduced lower-tropospheric cloud fraction in current simulations. There is also a significant reduction of the difference between the pristine and polluted cases, from ∼∼20 to ∼∼4 W m−−2 at the surface from ∼∼20 to ∼∼9 W m−−2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). The difference between the homogeneous and extremely inhomogeneous mixing scenarios, ∼∼20 W m−−2 in the previous study, is reduced to a mere 2 (1) W m−−2 at the surface (TOA). An unexpected difference between the previous and current simulations is the lower Bowen ratio of the surface heat flux, the partitioning of the total flux into sensible and latent components. It is shown that most of the change comes from the difference in the representation of rain evaporation in the subcloud layer in the single- and double-moment microphysics schemes. The difference affects the mean air temperature and humidity near the surface, and thus the Bowen ratio. The differences between the various simulations are discussed, contrasting the process-level approach with the impact of cloud microphysics on the quasi-equilibrium state with a more appropriate system dynamics approach. The key distinction is that the latter includes the interactions among all the processes in the modeled system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most previous global climate model simulations could only produce the termination of Snowball Earth episodes at CO2 partial pressures of several tenths of a bar, which is roughly an order of magnitude higher than recent estimates of CO2 levels during and shortly after Snowball events. These simulations have neglected the impact of dust aerosols on radiative transfer, which is an assumption of potentially grave importance. In this paper it is argued, using the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) box model driven by GCM results, that atmospheric dust aerosol concentrations may have been one to two orders of magnitude higher during a Snowball Earth event than today. It is furthermore asserted on the basis of calculations using NCAR’s Single Column Atmospheric Model (SCAM)—a radiative–convective model with sophisticated aerosol, cloud, and radiative parameterizations—that when the surface albedo is high, such increases in dust aerosol loading can produce several times more surface warming than an increase in the partial pressure of CO2 from 10−4 to 10−1 bar. Therefore the conclusion is reached that including dust aerosols in simulations may reconcile the CO2 levels required for Snowball termination in climate models with observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection and attribution of climate change in the observed record play a central role in synthesizing knowledge of the climate system. Unfortunately, the traditional method for detecting and attributing changes due to multiple forcings requires large numbers of general circulation model (GCM) simulations incorporating different initial conditions and forcing scenarios, and these have only been performed with a small number of GCMs. This paper presents an extension to the fingerprinting technique that permits the inclusion of GCMs in the multisignal analysis of surface temperature even when the required families of ensembles have not been generated. This is achieved by fitting a series of energy balance models (EBMs) to the GCM output in order to estimate the temporal response patterns to the various forcings. This methodology is applied to the very large Challenge ensemble of 62 simulations of historical climate conducted with the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 1.4 (CCSM1.4) GCM, as well as some simulations from other GCMs. Considerable uncertainty exists in the estimates of the parameters in fitted EBMs. Nevertheless, temporal response patterns from these EBMs are more reliable and the combined EBM time series closely mimics the GCM in the context of transient forcing. In particular, detection and attribution results from this technique appear self-consistent and consistent with results from other methods provided that all major forcings are included in the analysis. Using this technique on the Challenge ensemble, the estimated responses to changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric volcanic aerosols are all detected in the observed record, and the responses to the greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols are both consistent with the observed record without a scaling of the amplitude being required. The result is that the temperature difference of the 1996–2005 decade relative to the 1940–49 decade can be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions, with a partially offsetting cooling from sulfate emissions and little contribution from natural sources. The results support the viability of the new methodology as an extension to current analysis tools for the detection and attribution of climate change, which will allow the inclusion of many more GCMs. Shortcomings remain, however, and so it should not be considered a replacement to traditional techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much (or too little) greenhouse warming by too much (or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater (at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr-1 increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century-1 (5–95 percentiles). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic aerosol interacts strongly with incoming solar radiation, perturbing Earth's energy budget and precipitation on both local and global scales. Understanding these changes in precipitation has proven particularly difficult for the case of absorbing aerosol, which absorbs a significant amount of incoming solar radiation and hence acts as a source of localized diabatic heating to the atmosphere. In this work, we use an ensemble of atmosphere-only climate model simulations forced by identical absorbing aerosol perturbations in different geographical locations across the globe to develop a basic physical understanding of how this localized heating impacts the atmosphere and how these changes impact on precipitation both globally and locally. In agreement with previous studies we find that absorbing aerosol causes a decrease in global-mean precipitation, but we also show that even for identical aerosol optical depth perturbations, the global-mean precipitation change varies by over an order of magnitude depending on the location of the aerosol burden. Our experiments also demonstrate that the local precipitation response to absorbing aerosol is opposite in sign between the tropics and the extratropics, as found by previous work. We then show that this contrasting response can be understood in terms of different mechanisms by which the large-scale circulation responds to heating in the extratropics and in the tropics. We provide a simple theory to explain variations in the local precipitation response to absorbing aerosol in the tropics. Our work highlights that the spatial pattern of absorbing aerosol and its interactions with circulation are a key determinant of its overall climate impact and must be taken into account when developing our understanding of aerosol–climate interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earth’s planetary albedo shows a remarkable hemispheric symmetry. We assess to what extent CMIP models symmetrize the hemispheric clear-sky albedo asymmetry and what the role of clouds is for this. Following Voigt et al., we calculate a reference TOA reflected solar radiation considering the masking of clear-sky asymmetry by symmetric cloud contributions. We use the simple radiation model of Donohoe and Battisti to estimate this benchmark and to separate surface, aerosol, and cloud contributions to the compensation of this benchmark. In CERES, tropical clouds enhance the reference asymmetry while extratropical cloud asymmetries balance the reference asymmetry and the additional asymmetry introduced by tropical clouds. CMIP multimodel means show similar results as CERES. Clouds compensate reference asymmetries by 85% (CMIP3), 65% (CMIP5), and 78% (CMIP6) as compared with 98% for CERES. Spatial distributions of hemispheric differences indicate clear improvements across the CMIP phases. Remaining all-sky reflection asymmetries predominantly result from too-small, partly compensating cloud asymmetries: a too-weak enhancement of the reference asymmetry in the tropical Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans is accompanied by a too-weak compensation by extratropical clouds. Thus, tropical clouds and extratropical storm track regions are largely responsible for the compensation of hemispheric clear-sky asymmetries in CERES and CMIP, and for remaining biases in the GCMs. An unexpected result is the magnitude of model biases in the clear-sky asymmetries, which potentially condition systematic cloud biases. Experiments testing cloud-controlling factors influencing hemispheric asymmetry could help us to understand what drives hemispheric cloud differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the fast response of East Asian summer precipitation to COVID-19–induced aerosol emission reductions is examined using the Community Earth System Model, version 2.2 (CESM2.2). The emission reductions decreased aerosol optical depth and cloud cover over northern China in June 2020. The troposphere became warmer, strengthening the land–sea thermal contrast and anomalous southerly winds. The subtropical westerly jet accelerated and shifted southward, favoring low-level convergence, upward air motions, and subsequent condensational heating over the Yangtze River basin (YRB). The feedback of condensational heating in return strengthened the convergence and ascent. The western North Pacific subtropical high was intensified, which further enhanced the moisture advection and convergence over the YRB. Both the enhanced moisture convergence and ascent increased precipitation over the YRB during June 2020. Furthermore, local and remote emission reductions show different impacts on convection and moisture transport over the YRB. The emission reductions over China caused stronger convective precipitation (1.15 vs 0.63 mm day-1 ) but weaker larger-scale precipitation (1.17 vs 2.24 mm day-1 ) than the emission reductions outside China. In addition to the emission reductions, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in 2020 also play an important role in increasing precipitation over the YRB, contributing about 42.8%. The relative contribution of SST anomalies also increases under the COVID-19–induced emission scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both South Asia and East Asia are the most polluted regions of the world. Unlike East Asia, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) over South Asia keeps increasing for all recent years, which calls for more attention. This study investigates the impacts of anthropogenic emissions over South Asia on the downstream regional climate during spring with the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The model results suggest that South Asian pollutants have significant impacts on East Asian spring climate, and the impacts could be even larger than locally emitted aerosols. Two possible dynamical pathways (i.e., the northern and the southern pathways) bridging South Asian aerosol forcing and East Asian climate are proposed, and both ways are associated with the black carbon (BC)-induced climate feedbacks surrounding the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The northern pathway is mainly due to the TP warming induced by the BC snow darkening effect (SDE), which significantly reduces the surface air temperature (SAT) over northern East Asia. BC-induced TP warming increases the meridional thermal gradient and accelerates the midlatitude jet stream, which favors the cold-air advection over northern East Asia. The southern pathway is associated with the BC "elevated heat pump" hypothesis, which mainly affects the precipitation in southern East Asia. BC from South Asia accumulates near the south slope of TP, inducing an abnormal ascending motion near the Bay of Bengal. A compensating anomalous sinking motion is then forced in South China, which suppresses the precipitation there. A primary observational analysis is also performed to verify both dynamical pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results from a study inspecting the origins of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NASST) are presented. The authors target in particular the 1940-75 'warm-to-cold' transition, an event that is generally framed in the context of the longer-term Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) cycle, in turn associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) internal variability. Here the authors examine the ability of uninitialized, historical integrations from the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive to retrospectively reproduce this specific episode of twentieth-century climatic history, under a hierarchy of forcing conditions. For this purpose, both standard and so-called historical Misc CMIP5 simulations of the historical climate (combining selected natural and anthropogenic forcings) are exploited. Based on this multimodel analysis, evidence is found for a significant influence of anthropogenic agents on multidecadal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations across the Atlantic sector, suggesting that anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases might have played a key role in the 1940-75 North Atlantic cooling. However, the diagnosed forced response in CMIP5 models appears to be affected by a large uncertainty, with only a limited subset of models displaying significant skill in reproducing the mid-twentieth-century NASST cooling. Such uncertainty originates from the existence of well-defined behavioral clusters within the analyzed CMIP5 ensembles, with the bulk of the models splitting into two main clusters. Such a strong polarization calls for some caution when using a multimodel ensemble mean in climate model analyses, as averaging across fairly distinct model populations may result, through mutual cancellation, in a rather artificial description of the actual multimodel ensemble behavior. A potentially important role for both anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases with regard to the observed North Atlantic multidecadal variability has clear implications for decadal predictability and predictions. The uncertainty associated with alternative aerosol and greenhouse gas emission scenarios should be duly accounted for in designing a common protocol for coordinated decadal forecast experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of anthropogenic factors on the water cycle in drylands of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are unclear. Here, we used the Community Earth System Model (CESM2.1.0) to quantify the influences of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) on the water cycle and precipitation recycling rate (PRR) over drylands from 1980 to 2014. The corresponding mechanisms are also revealed in this study. The results show that GHGs can intensify the water cycle over drylands by increasing precipitation (P; 0.023 mm day−1) and evapotranspiration (ET; 0.037 mm day−1). Consequently, the negative P − ET (−0.014 mm day−1) is induced because infiltration (I; −0.014 mm day−1) and total water storage (S; −0.011 mm day−1) are decreased, implying a loss of soil water. The PRR is reduced by approximately −0.18% because of the GHG-induced extra water vapor export, which originated from ET. In contrast, AAs can weaken the water cycle over drylands by decreasing P (−0.03 mm day−1) and ET (−0.039 mm day−1). Correspondingly, positive P − ET (0.009 mm day−1) is induced, reflecting an input of soil water. Because of the AA-induced persistent ET from a wetter land and the reduced export water vapor from ET, the PRR increases by approximately 0.15%. Mechanistically, GHGs and AAs can affect the water cycle over drylands by perturbing the descending branches of Hadley circulation in midlatitude regions. Quantifying the climate effects of GHGs and AAs on the regional water cycle improves our understanding of the regional water cycle; the results of this study could also be conducive to the climate predictions for drylands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The diurnal temperature range (DTR) as measured by the difference between daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures is of great importance to human health, ecology, and agriculture. The link of its long-term change to anthropogenic forcing is still unclear. This study shows evidence of human influence on long-term changes in DTR over the globe, five continents, and China during the past century (1901–2014). Using multiple observational datasets, we find a general decrease in the DTR over most of the global land since 1901, especially after the mid-1950s. Changes in DTR are due to different warming rates of Tmax and Tmin in response to external forcings. The climate models that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) generally reproduce most of the changes in DTR, along with those in Tmax and Tmin. The models have underestimated the observed changes in DTR, however. A formal detection and attribution analysis shows that the anthropogenic forcing signal, including both greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions but dominated by the greenhouse gas emissions, is the main driver for these changes. The anthropogenic aerosol signal can be detected in Tmax and Tmin but not in DTR during the period of 1901–2014 over the globe and most continents. These indicate the observed decrease in DTR is not a simple response to anthropogenic aerosol emission. The natural signal is negligible in almost all the cases. Globally, anthropogenic influence is estimated to explain more than 90% of the observed changes in the three variables. In China, human influence is also clearly detected, although model simulated results on the regional scale have larger deviation. Significance Statement: The diurnal temperature range (DTR) is of great importance in many areas. We compare multiple observational datasets with the simulations by climate models that participated in the latest phase (phase 6) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), finding evidence of human influence on long-term changes in DTR over the past century (1901–2014) and robust evidence for the period since the early 1950s. The decrease in DTR as seen in the observational dataset is caused by different warming rates of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature in response to anthropogenic forcing, including both greenhouse gases and aerosols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire is an important Earth system process and the largest source of global primary carbonaceous aerosols. Earlier studies have focused on the influence of fire aerosols on radiation, surface climate, air quality, and biogeochemical cycle. The impact of fire aerosols on the global water cycle has not been quantified and related mechanisms remain largely unclear. This study provides the first quantitative assessment and understanding of the influence of fire aerosols on the global water cycle. This is done by quantifying the difference between simulations with and without fire aerosols using the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show that present-day fire aerosols weaken the global water cycle significantly. They decrease the continental precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff by 4.1 ± 1.8, 2.5 ± 0.5, and 1.5 ± 1.4 ×103 km3 yr−1 as well as ocean evaporation, precipitation, and water vapor transport from ocean to land by 8.1 ± 1.9, 6.6 ± 2.3, and 1.5 ± 1.4 ×103 km3 yr−1. The impacts of fire aerosols are most clearly seen in the tropics and the Arctic-boreal zone. Fire aerosols affect the global water cycle mainly by cooling the surface, which reduces ocean evaporation, land soil evaporation, and plant transpiration. The decreased water vapor load in the atmosphere leads to a decrease in precipitation, which contributes to reduced surface runoff and subsurface drainage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous work has shown that anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing drives a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in CMIP6 historical simulations over 1850–1985, but the mechanisms have not been fully understood. Across CMIP6 models, it is shown that there is a strong correlation between surface heat loss over the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) and the forced strengthening of the AMOC. Despite the link to AA forcing, the AMOC response is not strongly related to the contribution of anomalous downwelling surface shortwave radiation to SPNA heat loss. Rather, the spread in AMOC response is primarily due to the spread in turbulent heat loss. We hypothesize that turbulent heat loss is larger in models with strong AA forcing because the air advected over the ocean is colder and drier, in turn because of greater AA-forced cooling over the continents upwind, especially North America. The strengthening of the AMOC also feeds back on itself positively in two distinct ways: by raising the sea surface temperature and hence further increasing turbulent heat loss in the SPNA, and by increasing the sea surface density across the SPNA due to increased northward transport of saline water. A comparison of key indices suggests that the AMOC response in models with strong AA forcing is not likely to be consistent with observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sahel summertime precipitation declined from the 1950s to 1970s and recovered from the 1970s to 2000s. Anthropogenic aerosol contributions to this evolution are typically attributed to interhemispheric gradient changes of Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). However recent work by Hirasawa et al. indicates a more complex picture, with the response being a combination of "fast" direct atmospheric (DA) processes and "slow" ocean-mediated (OM) processes. Here, we extend this understanding using the Community Atmosphere Model 5 to determine the role of regional ocean-basin perturbations and regional aerosol emission changes in the overall aerosol-driven OM and DA responses, respectively. From the 1950s to 1970s, there was an OM Sahel wetting response due to Pacific Ocean cooling that was offset by drying due to Atlantic cooling. By contrast, from the 1970s to 2000s, Atlantic trends reversed and amplified the Pacific cooling-induced wetting. This wetting was partially offset by drying driven by Indian Ocean cooling. Thus, the OM Sahel precipitation response to aerosol crucially depends on the balance of responses to Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean SST anomalies. From the 1950s to 1970s, there is DA Sahel drying that was principally due to North American aerosol emissions, with negligible effect from European emissions. DA drying from the 1970s to 2000s was mainly due to African aerosol emissions. Thus, the shifting roles of regional OM and DA effects reveal a complex interplay of direct driving and remote teleconnections in determining the time evolution of Sahel precipitation due to aerosol forcing in the late twentieth century. Significance Statement: Studies of global climate models consistently indicate that anthropogenic aerosol emissions were a significant contributor to a severe drought that occurred in the Sahel region of Africa in the late twentieth century. The drying influence of aerosol forcing is the combined result of rapid atmospheric responses directly due to the forcing and slower responses due to forced ocean temperature changes. Using a set of simulations targeted at determining the influences from different ocean basins and different emission regions for two periods in the late twentieth century, we find there is a surprising range of mechanisms through which aerosol emissions affect the Sahel. This results in a complex interplay of at times competing and at times complementary regional influences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike greenhouse gases (GHGs), anthropogenic aerosol (AA) concentrations have increased and then decreased over the past century or so, with the timing of the peak concentration varying in different regions. To date, it has been challenging to separate the climate impact of AAs from that due to GHGs and background internal variability. We use a pattern recognition method, taking advantage of spatiotemporal covariance information, to isolate the forced patterns for the surface ocean and associated atmospheric variables from the all-but-one forcing Community Earth System Model ensembles. We find that the aerosol-forced responses are dominated by two leading modes, with one associated with the historical increase and future decrease of global mean aerosol concentrations (dominated by the Northern Hemisphere sources) and the other due to the transition of the primary sources of AA from the west to the east and also from Northern Hemisphere extratropical regions to tropical regions. In particular, the aerosol transition effect, to some extent compensating the global mean effect, exhibits a zonal asymmetry in the surface temperature and salinity responses. We also show that this transition effect dominates the total AA effect during recent decades, e.g., 1967–2007. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct perturbation of anthropogenic aerosols on Earth's energy balance [i.e., direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF)] remains uncertain in climate models. These uncertainties critically depend on aerosol optical properties, primarily aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA), and the asymmetry factor g. In this study, we investigate the intermodel spread of DARF across 14 global models within phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using unified radiative transfer calculation and aerosol optical parameter assumptions. The global mean DARF for clear sky in 2014 with respect to 1850 is estimated as 20.77 ± 0.52 W m-2 assuming an externally mixed state and 20.68 ± 0.53 W m-2 for an internally mixed state. We further conduct a quantitative analysis and find that globally, for the external mixing assumption, AOD is the dominant factor, whose intermodel spread results in 36% of the total DARF uncertainty. For the internal mixing assumption, SSA becomes the major factor, which also leads to 36% DARF uncertainty. The g parameter and aerosol vertical distribution combined contribute to ~30% of the DARF uncertainty. Regionally, DARF uncertainty is typically more sensitive to SSA where the absorbing aerosol fraction is high, such as South Asia and central Africa. Substantial differences between model-averaged and observed aerosol optical parameters are still noticed, with external mixing in general yielding closer agreement with observations. Our results highlight the importance of aerosol scattering and absorption properties in DARF estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The direct perturbation of anthropogenic aerosols on Earth's energy balance [i.e., direct aerosol radiative forcing (DARF)] remains uncertain in climate models. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty of DARF associated with aerosol vertical distribution, using simulation results from 14 global models within phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The column mass loading for each aerosol species is first normalized to the multimodel average for each model, which is called the mass-normalization process. The unified radiative transfer model and aerosol optical parameter are used, so that the differences in the calculated DARF are solely attributed to the difference in aerosol vertical profiles. The global mean DARF values in 2014 with respect to 1850 before and after mass normalization are 20.77 ° 0.52 and 20.81 ° 0.12 W m-2 respectively, assuming external mixing, which indicates that the intermodel difference in aerosol vertical distribution accounts for ~20% of the total DARF uncertainty. We further conduct two separate experiments by normalizing aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) profiles, respectively, and find that the vertical distribution of SSA results in larger DARF uncertainty (0.17 W m-2) than that of AOD (0.10 W m-2). Finally, compared with CALIPSO observation, CMIP6 models tend to produce higher aerosol layers. The bias in modeled aerosol profile with respect to CALIPSO leads to stronger DARF, especially for land regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North Indian Ocean (NIO) tropical cyclone activity is strongly influenced by aerosols and climate modes. In this study, we evaluated the impact of aerosols and climate modes on modulating tropical cyclone (TC) frequency over the NIO. A statistical generalized additive model based on Poisson regression was developed to assess their relative impacts. Aerosol optical depth for different compounds simulated by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model, sunspot number (SN) as solar variability, and eight climate modes—Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), all based on reanalysis datasets, were analyzed for the 40-yr period 1980–2019. A strong linkage was found between TC activity and the AMM, IOD, and ENSO over the NIO. In addition, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt, and sulfate aerosols have a significant impact on the cyclone frequency. Among these factors, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt, and AMM account for the most variance of TCs, and among the other climate modes, IOD contributes more than ENSO. This is the first attempt to have identified this ranked set of aerosols and climate indices according to their relative ability to impact NIO TCs. Possible linkages between the thermodynamic and dynamic effects of aerosols on the Indian monsoon environment and its modifications to the large-scale environmental parameters relevant to TC development, namely, sea surface temperature, vertical wind shear, relative vorticity, and relative humidity during different phases of the climate modes are discussed. Significance Statement: Aerosols and climate modes have enormous impact on tropical cyclones (TCs). In this study, we evaluated the impact of aerosols and climate modes that modulate frequency of TCs over the north Indian Ocean. To assess the impact, a statistical generalized additive model based on Poisson regression was developed. A strong linkage was found between TC activity and Atlantic meridional mode, Indian Ocean dipole, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, whereas other climate modes have no statistical significance. In addition, black carbon, organic carbon, sea salt, and SO4 aerosols have a strong linkage to cyclone frequency. The study postulates that most positive phases of these climate modes are associated with more TCs, while the negative phases are associated with fewer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Hemisphere land monsoon (NHLM) precipitation exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the twentieth century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and natural forcing. We decomposed summer global monsoon precipitation anomalies into dynamic and thermodynamic terms to assess the drivers of precipitation trends. We show that the drying trends are likely to be mainly due to increased AA emissions, which cause shifts of the atmospheric circulation and a decrease in moisture advection. Increases in GHG emissions cause monsoon precipitation to increase due to strengthened moisture advection. The uncertainty in summer monsoon precipitation trends is explored using three initial-condition large ensembles. AA emissions have strong controls on monsoon precipitation trends, exceeding the effects of internal climate variability. However, uncertainties in the effects of external forcings on monsoon precipitation are high for specific periods and monsoon domains, resulting from differences in how models simulate shifts in atmospheric circulation. The effect of AA emissions is uncertain over the northern African monsoon domain due to differences among climate models in simulating the effects of AA emissions on net shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variety of empirical estimates have been published for the lower bounds on aerosol radiative forcing, clustered around −1.0 or −2.0 W m−2. The reasons for obtaining such different constraints are not well understood. In this study, we explore bounds on aerosol radiative forcing using a Bayesian model of aerosol forcing and Earth's multi-time-scale temperature response to radiative forcing. We first demonstrate the ability of a simple aerosol model to emulate aerosol radiative forcing simulated by 10 general circulation models. A joint inference of climate sensitivity and effective aerosol forcing from historical surface temperatures is then made over 1850–2019. We obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of aerosol radiative forcing of −0.85 W m−2 (5%–95% credible interval from −1.3 to −0.50 W m−2) for 2010–19 relative to 1750 and an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.4°C (5%–95% credible interval from 1.8° to 6.1°C). The wide range of climate sensitivity reflects difficulty in empirically constraining long-term responses using historical temperatures, as noted elsewhere. A relatively tight bound on aerosol forcing is nonetheless obtained from the structure of temperature and aerosol precursor emissions and, particularly, from the rapid growth in emissions between 1950 and 1980. Obtaining a 5th percentile lower bound on aerosol forcing around −2.0 W m−2 requires prescribing internal climate variance that is a factor of 5 larger than the CMIP6 mean and assuming large, correlated errors in global temperature observations. Ocean heat uptake observations may further constrain aerosol radiative forcing but require a better understanding of the relationship between time-variable radiative feedbacks and radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black carbon (BC) aerosol particles in the Arctic heat the atmosphere and snow/ice surfaces and may strengthen the snow-albedo feedback that amplifies Arctic warming. Model simulations of BC concentrations in the Arctic depend strongly on the representation of microphysical processes such as aging, activation, and wet removal. Most BC modeling studies have classified BC particles into hydrophobic BC, which cannot form cloud droplets, and hydrophilic BC, which can form cloud droplets, by assuming a globally constant critical supersaturation threshold value (Sthre), without considering its consistency with cloud maximum supersaturation (Smax). Here we show that it is essential to consider the consistency of Sthre with Smax in global model simulations to reduce uncertainties in near-surface ambientBCconcentrations in the Arctic. Previous studies often obtained good agreement between simulated and observed near-surface Arctic BC mass concentrations when a low Sthre (;0.1%) was assumed in their models. However, this Sthre may be too low (activation and wet removal of BCmay be underestimated) for the Arctic, because some recent observations and our model simulations suggest that Smax may actually be higher (;0.3%) there. We also demonstrate that spatially varying Sthre values and their consistency with Smax, which previous studies did not consider, must be represented in models for more accurate estimation of BC budget in the Arctic. Because both Smax and BC-aging speed depend on climatic conditions, our findings are an important step toward better simulations of BC impacts on past, present, and future Arctic climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire-emitted aerosols play an important role in influencing Earth’s climate, directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by influencing cloud microphysics. The quantification of fire–aerosol interactions, however, remains challenging and subject to uncertainties in emissions, plume parameterizations, and aerosol properties. Here we optimized fire-associated aerosol emissions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) using the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) and AERONET aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations during 1997–2016. We distributed fire emissions vertically using smoke plume heights from Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) satellite observations. From the optimization, we estimate that global fires emit 45.5 Tg yr-1 of primary particulate organic matter and 3.9 Tg yr-1 of black carbon. We then performed two climate simulations with and without the optimized fire emissions. We find that fire aerosols significantly increase global AOD by 14% ± 7% and contribute to a reduction in net shortwave radiation at the surface (-2.3 ± 0.5 Wm-2). Together, fire-induced direct and indirect aerosol effects cause annual mean global land surface air temperature to decrease by 0.17° ± 0.15°C, relative humidity to increase by 0.4% ± 0.3%, and diffuse light fraction to increase by 0.5% ± 0.3%. In response, GPP declines by 2.8 Pg C yr-1 as a result of large positive drivers (decreases in temperature and increases in humidity and diffuse light), nearly cancelling out large negative drivers (decreases in shortwave radiation and soil moisture). Our analysis highlights the importance of fire aerosols in modifying surface climate and photosynthesis across the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of the westerly jet stream and storm track is crucial for summer weather and climate in the North Atlantic/European region. Observations for recent decades show notable trends in the summer jet from the 1970s to 2010s, characterized by an equatorward migration over the North Atlantic accompanied by a poleward migration and weakening of the Mediterranean jet over Europe. These changes in atmospheric circulation were associated with more cyclonic storms traveling across the United Kingdom into northern Europe, and fewer over the Mediterranean, leading to wet summers in northern Europe and dry summers in southern Europe. In this study we investigate the potential drivers and processes that may have been responsible for the observed changes in summer atmospheric circulation, with a particular focus on the role of anthropogenic aerosols (AA). We conduct attribution experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed changes in sea surface temperatures/sea ice extent (SST/SIE), greenhouse gas concentrations, and AA precursor emissions. Comparison between the model results and observations strongly suggests that fast responses to AA changes were likely the primary driver of the observed poleward migration and weakening of the Mediterranean jet, with changes in SST/SIE playing a secondary role. The simulated response shows good agreement with the observed changes in both magnitude and vertical structure, which suggests that common mechanisms, involving aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, are responsible. By contrast, changes in the North Atlantic jet are influenced in the model experiments by changes in both Atlantic SST/SIE (which may themselves have been influenced by changes in AA) and fast responses to AA. In this case, however, there are significant differences between the model response and the observed changes; we argue that these differences may be explained by biases in the model climatology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phosphorus contained in atmospheric mineral dust aerosol originating from Africa fertilizes tropical forests in Amazonia. However, the mechanisms influencing this nutrient transport pathway remain poorly understood. Here we use the Community Earth System Model to investigate how large-scale deforestation affects mineral dust aerosol transport and deposition in the tropics. We find that the surface biophysical changes that accompany deforestation produce a warmer, drier, and windier surface environment that perturbs atmospheric circulation and enhances long-range dust transport from North Africa to the Amazon. Tropics-wide deforestation weakens the Hadley circulation, which then leads to a northward expansion of the Hadley cell and increases surface air pressure over the Sahara Desert. The high pressure anomaly over the Sahara, in turn, increases northeasterly winds across North Africa and the tropical North Atlantic Ocean, which subsequently increases dust transport to the South American continent. We estimate that the annual atmospheric phosphorus deposition from dust significantly increases by 27% (P < 0.01) in the Amazon under a scenario of complete deforestation. These interactions exemplify how land surface changes can modify tropical nutrient cycling, which, in turn, may have consequences for long-term changes in tropical ecosystem productivity and biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of the climate effects of black carbon (BC) in East Asia are not abundant and the effects remain uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) with Peking University's emissions data, the fast response of the atmospheric water cycle to anthropogenic BC during summer in East Asia is investigated in this study. Results show that the CESM1-simulated BC concentration and its direct effective radiative forcing are comparable to observations. With the combination of aerosol–radiation interaction (ARI) and non-aerosol–radiation interaction (including aerosol–cloud interaction and surface albedo effects), anthropogenic BC induces a "wetter south and drier north" pattern over East Asia during summer. Also, anthropogenic BC affects the summer precipitation primarily through changing moisture transport rather than altering local evaporation over East Asia. Using the self-developed atmospheric water tracer method, the responses of dominant moisture sources [the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and northwest Pacific] to anthropogenic BC are investigated. Results show that the moisture originating from southwest monsoon-related sources (especially the TIO) is more responsive to anthropogenic BC effects over East Asia. In particular, differing from total precipitation, TIO-supplied precipitation shows a significant response to the ARI of anthropogenic BC over East Asia. Process analyses show that anthropogenic BC affects the southwest monsoon-related moisture supplies primarily via advection, deep convection, and cloud macrophysics. Interestingly, the anthropogenic BC-induced changes of TIO-supplied water vapor in these three processes are all dominated by the ARI over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducted a detection and attribution analysis of the observed global and regional changes in extreme temperatures during 1951-2015. HadEX3 observations were compared with multimodel simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Annual maximum daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TXx and TNx; warm extremes) and annual minimum daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TXn and TNn; cold extremes) over land were analyzed considering global, continental, and subcontinental scales. Response patterns (fingerprints) of extreme temperatures to anthropogenic (ANT), greenhouse gases (GHG), aerosols (AA), and natural (NAT) forcings were obtained from CMIP6 forced simulations. The internal variability ranges were estimated from preindustrial control simulations. A two-signal detection analysis where the observations are regressed onto ANT and NAT fingerprints simultaneously reveals that ANT signals are robustly detected in separation from NAT over global and all continental domains (North and South America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania) for most of the extreme indices. ANT signals are also detected over many subcontinental regions, particularly for warm extremes (more than 60% of 33 subregions). A three-signal detection analysis that considers GHG, AA, and NAT fingerprints simultaneously demonstrates that GHG signals are detected in isolation from other external forcings over global, continental, and several subcontinental domains especially for warm extremes, explaining most of the observed warming. Moreover, AA influences are detected for warm extremes over Europe and Asia, indicating significant offsetting cooling contributions. Overall, human influences are detected more frequently, compared to previous studies, particularly for cold extremes, due to the extended period and the improved spatial coverage of observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A lower bound on the uncertainty in observational estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE; the direct interaction with solar radiation by all aerosols) and the aerosol direct radiative forcing [DRF; the radiative effect of just anthropogenic aerosols (RFari)] is quantified by making the optimistic assumption that global aerosol observations can be made with the accuracy found in the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer retrievals. The global-mean all-sky aerosol DRE uncertainty was found to be 1.1 W m−2 (one standard deviation). The global-mean all-sky aerosol DRF (RFari) uncertainty was determined to be 0.31 W m−2. The total uncertainty in both quantities is dominated by contributions from the aerosol single scattering albedo uncertainty. These uncertainty estimates were compared to a literature survey of mostly satellite-based aerosol DRE/DRF values. Comparisons to previous studies reveal that most have significantly underestimated the aerosol DRE uncertainty. Past estimates of the aerosol DRF uncertainty are smaller (on average) than our optimistic observational estimates, including the aerosol DRF uncertainty given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). This disconnect between our observation-based uncertainty and that found in past aerosol DRF studies that rely, at least in part, on modeling is discussed. Also quantified is a potential reduction in the current observational uncertainty possible with a future generation of satellite observations that would leverage aerosol typing and more refined vertical information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations and climate models are combined to identify an anthropogenic warming signature in the upper ocean heat content (OHC) changes since 1971. We apply a new detection and attribution analysis developed by Ribes et al. that uses a symmetric treatment of the magnitude and the pattern of the climate response to each radiative forcing. A first estimate of the OHC response to natural, anthropogenic, greenhouse gas, and other forcings is derived from a large ensemble of CMIP5 simulations. Observational datasets from historical reconstructions are then used to constrain this estimate. A spatiotemporal observational mask is applied to compare simulations with actual observations and to overcome reconstruction biases. Results on the 0–700-m layer from 1971 to 2005 show that the global OHC would have increased since 1971 by 2.12 ± 0.21 × 107 J m−2 yr−1 in response to GHG emissions alone. But this has been compensated for by other anthropogenic influences (mainly aerosol), which induced an OHC decrease of 0.84 ± 0.18 × 107 J m−2 yr−1. The natural forcing has induced a slight global OHC decrease since 1971 of 0.13 ± 0.09 × 107 J m−2 yr−1. Compared to previous studies we have separated the effect of the GHG forcing from the effect of the other anthropogenic forcing on OHC changes. This has been possible by using a new detection and attribution (D&A) method and by analyzing simultaneously the global OHC trends over 1957–80 and over 1971–2005. This bivariate method takes advantage of the different time variation of the GHG forcing and the aerosol forcing since 1957 to separate both effects and reduce the uncertainty in their estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the circumstances under which the Saharan air layer (SAL) has a negative impact on the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. Using hurricane tracking, aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and meteorological analyses, we analyze the interaction of the SAL with 52 named TCs that formed over the east and central Atlantic south of the Cape Verde islands between 2004 and 2017. Following the categorization of negative SAL influences on TC intensification by Dunion and Velden, only 21% of the investigated storms can be classified (28% of all storms that encountered the SAL), and 21% of the storms continue to intensify despite the presence of the SAL. We show that among TCs that encounter the SAL, there is evidence supporting a weak negative correlation between the magnitude of TC intensification and the ambient AOD. However, above-average Saharan dust abundance in the vicinity of TCs is not a good independent indicator for storm nonintensification. To better understand the specific processes involved, a composite study is carried out, contrasting storms that intensify in the presence of the SAL against those that do not. We find that sheared air masses on the north side and drier air from the northeast of the storm early on during its lifetime, in addition to higher AOD, are associated with TC nonintensification in proximity to the SAL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sahel precipitation has undergone substantial multidecadal time scale changes during the twentieth century that have had severe impacts on the region's population. Using initial-condition large ensembles (LE) of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations from two institutions, forced multidecadal variability is found in which Sahel precipitation declines from the 1950s to 1970s and then recovers from the 1970s to 2000s. This forced variability has similar timing to, but considerably smaller magnitude than, observed Sahel precipitation variability. Isolating the response using single forcing simulations within the LEs reveals that anthropogenic aerosols (AA) are the primary driver of this forced variability. The roles of the direct-atmospheric and the ocean-mediated atmospheric responses toAAforcing are determined with the atmosphere-land GCM (AGCM) components of the LE coupled GCMs. The direct-atmospheric response arises from changes to aerosol and precursor emissions with unchanged oceanic boundary conditions while the ocean-mediated response arises from changes to AA-forced sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations diagnosed from the AAforced LE. In the AGCMs studied here, the direct-atmospheric response dominates the AA-forced 1970s 2 1950s Sahel drying. On the other hand, the 2000s 2 1970s wetting is mainly driven by the ocean-mediated effect, with some direct atmospheric contribution. Although the responses show differences, there is qualitative agreement between the AGCMs regarding the roles of the direct-atmospheric and ocean-mediated responses. Since these effects often compete and show nonlinearity, the model dependence of these effects and their role in the net aerosol-forced response of Sahel precipitation need to be carefully accounted for in future model analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convective clouds (DCCs) are important to global climate, atmospheric chemistry, and precipitation. Dust, a dominant aerosol type over the tropical North Atlantic, has potentially large microphysical impacts on DCCs over this region. However, dust effects are difficult to identify, being confounded by covarying meteorology and other factors. Here, a method is developed to quantify DCC responses to dust and other aerosols at large spatial and temporal scales despite these uncertainties. Over 7 million tropical North Atlantic cloud, aerosol, and meteorological profiles from CloudSat satellite data and MERRA-2 reanalysis products are used to stratify cloud observations into meteorological regimes, objectively select a priori assumptions, and iteratively test uncertainty sensitivity. Dust is robustly associated with a 54% increase in DCC prevalence. However, marine aerosol proxy concentrations are 5 times more predictive of dustassociated increases in DCC prevalence than the dust itself, or any other aerosol or meteorological factor. Marine aerosols are also the most predictive factor for the even larger increases in DCC prevalence (61%-87%) associated with enhanced dimethyl sulfide and combustion and sulfate aerosols. Dust-associated increases in DCC prevalence are smaller at high dust concentrations than at low concentrations. These observations suggest that not only is dust a comparatively ineffectiveCCN source, but it may also act as a condensation/coagulation sink for chemical precursors to CCN, reducing total CCN availability over large spatial scales by inhibiting new particle formation from marine emissions. These observations represent the first time this process, previously predicted by models, has been supported and quantified by measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in boreal spring snow-cover extent (SCE) for an extended period of 1925-2019 for early spring (March and April) and 1970-2019 for late spring (May and June) using updated observations and multimodel simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The observed and simulated SCE changes over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), Eurasia, and North America are compared using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Detection results indicate that anthropogenic influences are robustly detected in the observed SCE decrease over NH and the continental regions, in separation from natural forcing influences. In contrast to previous studies, anthropogenic response in the early spring SCE shows a consistentmagnitude with observations, due to an extension of the time period to 2019. It is demonstrated for the first time that the greenhouse gas (GHG) influence is robustly detected in separation from anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing influences, and that most of the observed spring SCE decrease is attributable toGHGinfluences. The observed SCE decline is also found to be closely associated with the surface warming over the corresponding extratropical lands. Our first quantification of GHGcontribution to the observed SCE changes has important implications for reliable future projections of the SCE changes and its hydrological and ecological impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]