Search

Understanding the variability and change of monsoon onset is of utmost importance for agriculture planning and water management. In the last three decades, the Asian summer monsoon onset (ASMO) has remarkably advanced, but the physical mechanisms underlying the change remain elusive. Since the overall ASMO occurs in May, this paper focuses on the change of mean fields in May and considers enhanced mean precipitation and monsoon westerly winds as signs of advanced ASMO. The results reveal that the advanced ASMO mainly represents a robust decadal shift in the mid-to-late 1990s, which is attributed to the mean state change in the Pacific basin characterized by a grand La Niña-like pattern. The La Niña-like mean state change controls the ASMO through the westward propagation of Rossby waves and its interaction with the asymmetric background mean states in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, which intensifies the Northern Hemispheric perturbations and westerly winds. Intriguingly, the abrupt decadal shifts of monsoon onset in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal occur in 1999, in contrast to the South China Sea with a decadal shift in 1994. Numerical experiments with a coupled climate model demonstrate that the advanced monsoon onset in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal is governed by the enhanced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial Pacific, while that in the South China Sea is primarily determined by the abrupt SST warming near the Philippine Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the initial development of the double ITCZ in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in the central Pacific. Starting from a resting initial condition of the ocean in January, the model developed a warm bias of sea surface temperature (SST) in the central Pacific from 5°S to 10°S in the first three months. This initial bias is caused by excessive surface shortwave radiation that is also present in the stand-alone atmospheric model. The initial bias is further amplified by biases in both surface latent heat flux and horizontal heat transport in the upper ocean. These biases are caused by the responses of surface winds to SST bias and the thermocline structure to surface wind curls. This study also showed that the warming biases in surface solar radiation and latent heat fluxes are seasonally offset by cooling biases from reduced solar radiation after the austral summer due to cloud responses and in the austral fall due to enhanced evaporation when the maximum SST is closest to the equator. The warming biases from the dynamic heat transport by ocean currents however stay throughout all seasons once they are developed, which are eventually balanced by enhanced energy exchange and penetration of solar radiation below the mixed layer. It was also shown that the equatorial cold tongue develops after the warm biases in the south-central Pacific, and the overestimation of surface shortwave radiation recurs in the austral summer in each year. The results provide a case study on the physical processes leading to the development of the double ITCZ. Applicability of the results in other models is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Walker circulation (WC) is one of the world's most prominent and important atmospheric systems. The WC weakened during the twentieth century, reaching record low levels in recent decades. This weakening is thought to be partly due to global warming and partly due to internally generated natural variability. There is, however, no consensus in the literature on the relative contribution of external forcing and natural variability to the observed weakening of the WC. This paper examines changes in the strength of the WC using an index called BoxΔP, which is equal to the difference in mean sea level pressure across the equatorial Pacific. Change in both the observations and in World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models are examined. The annual average BoxΔP declines in the observations and in 15 out of 23 models during the twentieth century (results that are significant at or above the 95%% level), consistent with earlier work. However, the magnitude of the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) 1901-99 trend (−0.10 Pa yr−1) is much smaller than the magnitude of the observed trend (−0.52 Pa yr−1). While a wide range of trends is evident in the models with approximately 90%% of the model trends in the range (−0.25 to ++0.1 Pa yr−1), even this range is too narrow to encompass the magnitude of the observed trend. Twenty-first-century changes in BoxΔP under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 are also examined. Negative trends (i.e., weaker WCs) are evident in all seasons. However, the MMEM trends for the A1B and A2 scenarios are smaller in magnitude than the magnitude of the observed trend. Given that external forcing linked to greenhouse gases is much larger in the twenty-first-century scenarios than twentieth-century forcing, this, together with the twentieth-century results mentioned above, would seem to suggest that external forcing has not been the primary driver of the observed weakening of the WC. However, 9 of the 23 models are unable to account for the observed change unless the internally generated component of the trend is very large. But indicators of observed variability linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation have modest trends, suggesting that internally variability has been modest. Furthermore, many of the nine 'inconsistent' models tend to have poorer simulations of climatic features linked to ENSO. In addition, the externally forced component of the trend tends to be larger in magnitude and more closely matches the observed trend in the models that are better able to reproduce ENSO-related variability. The 'best' four models, for example, have a MMEM of −0.2 Pa yr−1 (i.e., approximately 40%% of the observed change), suggesting a greater role for external forcing in driving the observed trend. These and other considerations outlined below lead the authors to conclude that (i) both external forcing and internally generated variability contributed to the observed weakening of the WC over the twentieth century and (ii) external forcing accounts for approximately 30%%-70%% of the observed weakening with internally generated climate variability making up the rest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have described the impacts of wind stress variations in the eastern Pacific on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However, these studies have usually focused on individual El Niño events and typically have not considered impacts on La Niña—the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. This paper examines effects of wind stress and heat flux forcing on interannual SST variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific from sensitivity tests using an ocean general circulation model over the period 1980–2002. Results indicate that in the Niño-3 region (5°N–5°S, 90°–150°W) a zonal wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m-2 leads to about 1°C SST anomaly and that air–sea heat fluxes tend to damp interannual SST anomalies generated by other physical processes at a rate of about 40 W m-2 (°C)-1. These results systematically quantify expectations from previous event specific numerical model studies that local forcing in the eastern Pacific can significantly affect the evolution of both warm and cold phases of the ENSO cycle. The results are also consistent with a strictly empirical analysis that indicates that a wind stress anomaly of 0.01 N m-2 leads to ∼1°C SST anomaly in the Niño-3 region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of clouds and precipitation on the climate is a strong function of their spatial distribution and microphysical properties, characteristics that depend, in turn, on the environments in which they form. Simulating feedbacks between clouds, precipitation, and their surroundings therefore places an enormous burden on the parameterized physics used in current climate models. This paper uses multisensor observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) to assess the representation of the response of regional energy and water cycles in the tropical Pacific to the strong 1998 El Niño event in (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) AMIP-style simulations from the climate models that participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) most recent assessment report. The relationship between model errors and uncertainties in their representation of the impacts of clouds and precipitation on local energy budgets is also explored. With the exception of cloud radiative impacts that are often overestimated in both regions, the responses of atmospheric composition and heating to El Niño are generally captured in the east Pacific where the SST forcing is locally direct. Many models fail, however, to correctly predict the magnitude of induced trends in the west Pacific where the response depends more critically on accurate representation of the zonal atmospheric circulation. As a result, a majority of the models examined do not reproduce the apparent westward transport of energy in the equatorial Pacific during the 1998 El Niño event. Furthermore, the intermodel variability in the responses of precipitation, total heating, and vertical motion is often larger than the intrinsic ENSO signal itself, implying an inherent lack of predictive capability in the ensemble with regard to the response of the mean zonal atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific to ENSO. While ENSO does not necessarily provide a proxy for anthropogenic climate change, the results suggest that deficiencies remain in the representation of relationships between radiation, clouds, and precipitation in current climate models that cannot be ignored when interpreting their predictions of future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores changes in the principal components of observed energy budgets across the tropical Pacific in response to the strong 1998 El Niño event. Multisensor observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS), and precipitation radar (PR) instruments aboard TRMM are used to quantify changes in radiative and latent heating in the east and west Pacific in response to the different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In periods of normal east–west SST gradients there is substantial heating in the west Pacific and cooling in the east, implying strong eastward atmospheric energy transport. During the active phase of the El Niño, both the east and west Pacific tend toward local radiative–convective equilibrium resulting in their temporary energetic decoupling. It is further demonstrated that the response of these regions to ENSO-induced SST variability is directly related to changes in the characteristics of clouds and precipitation in each region. Through quantitative analysis of the radiative and latent heating properties of shallow, midlevel, and deep precipitation events and an equivalent set of nonprecipitating cloud systems, times of reduced atmospheric heating are found to be associated with a shift toward shallow and midlevel precipitation systems and associated low-level cloudiness. The precipitation from such systems is typically less intense, and they do not trap outgoing longwave radiation as efficiently as their deeper counterparts, resulting in reduced radiative and latent heating of the atmosphere. The results also suggest that the net effect of precipitating systems on top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes and the efficiency with which they heat the atmosphere and cool the surface exhibit strong dependence on their surroundings. The sensitivity of cloud radiative impacts to the atmospheric and surface properties they act to modify implies the existence of strong feedbacks whose representation may pose a significant challenge to the climate modeling community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper diagnostic estimates of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and clear-sky radiation budget at the surface and in the atmosphere, based on satellite-observed radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and empirical parameterizations derived from radiation models and field observations, are presented. This analysis is restricted to the tropical Pacific. High clouds over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and the warm pool (WP) exert a positive CRF of about 70 W m within the atmosphere and a negative CRF of about -70 W m[sup -2] at the surface, although with a negligible net CRF at the TOA. On the other hand, low clouds over the eastern subtropical Pacific and the equatorial cold tongue exert a negative CRF of about -20 W m[sup -2] at the surface as well as in the atmosphere. The spatial gradients of the clear-sky radiation budget at the surface and in the atmosphere are small. In particular, it is shown that the clear-sky radiative cooling in the atmosphere is larger over the ITCZ, the SPCZ, and the WE when compared with that over the subtropics and the cold tongue. Next, based on these diagnostic estimates and available surface turbulent heat flux data, the role of atmospheric CRF in the large-scale atmospheric moist static energy (MSE) transport is quantified. It is found that the atmospheric CRF provides the major energy source for balancing the divergence of MSE transport (from the ITCZ, the SPCZ, and the WP to the subtropics and the cold tongue) by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. On the other hand, the clear-sky radiative flux convergence and the surface turbulent heat fluxes have just the reverse spatial pattern and hence cannot satisfy the large-scale atmospheric MSE transport requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]