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This paper explores the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to surface warming through the lens of large-domain cloud-system-resolving model experiments run in a radiative-convective equilibrium framework. Simulations are run for 55 days and are driven with fixed insolation and constant sea surface temparatures (SSTs) of 298 K, 300 K, and 302 K. In each experiment, convection organizes into coherent regions of large-scale ascent separated by areas with relatively clear air and troposphere-deep descent. Aspects of the simulations correspond to observed features of the tropical climate system, including the transition to large precipitation rates above a critical value of total column water vapor, and an increase in convective intensity with SST amidst weakening of the large-scale overturning circulation. However, the authors also find notable changes to the interaction between convection and the environment as the surface warms. In particular, organized convection in simulations with SSTs of 298 and 300 K is inhibited by the presence of a strong midtropospheric stable layer and dry upper troposphere. As a result, there is a decrease in the vigor of deep convection and an increase in stratiform precipitation fraction with an increase in SST from 298 to 300 K. With an increase in SST to 302 K, moistening of the middletroposphere and increase in lower-tropospheric buoyancy serve to overcome these limitations, leading to an overall increase in convective intensity and larger increase in upper-tropospheric relative humidity. The authors conclude that, while convective intensity increases with SST, the aggregate nature of deep convection is strongly affected by the details of the thermodynamic environment in which it develops. In particular, the positive feedback between increasing SST and a moistening upper troposphere found in the simulations, operates as a nonmonotonic function of SST and is modulated by a complex interaction between deep convection and the environmental relative humidity and static stability profile. The results suggest that projected changes in convection that assume a monotonic dependence on SST may constitute an oversimplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmosphere-only CMIP5 idealized climate experiments with quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 are analyzed to understand the fast response of the tropical overturning circulation to this forcing and the main mechanism of this response. A new metric for the circulation, based on pressure velocity in the subsidence regions, is defined, taking advantage of the dynamical stability of these regions and their reduced sensitivity to the GCM's cloud and precipitation parameterization schemes. This definition permits us to decompose the circulation change into a sum of relative changes in subsidence area, static stability, and heating rate. A comparative analysis of aqua- and Earth-like planet experiments reveals the effect of the land–sea contrast on the total change in circulation. On average, under the influence of CO2 increase without surface warming, the atmosphere radiatively cools less, and this drives the 3%–4% slowdown of the tropical circulation. Even in an Earth-like planet setup, the circulation weakening is dominated by the radiatively driven changes in the subsidence regions over the oceans. However, the land–sea differential heating contributes to the vertical pattern of the circulation weakening by driving the vertical expansion of the tropics. It is further found that the surface warming would, independently of the CO2 effect, lead to up to a 12% slowdown in circulation, dominated by the enhancement of the static stability in the upper troposphere. The two mechanisms identified above combine in the coupled experiment with abrupt quadrupling, causing a circulation slowdown (focused in the upper troposphere) of up to 18%. Here, the independent effect of CO2 has a considerable impact only at time scales less than one year, being overtaken quickly by the impact of surface warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subtropical stationary waves may act as an important bridge connecting regional hydrological extremes with global warming. Observations show that the boreal summer stationary-wave amplitude (SWA) had a significantly positive trend during 1979–2013. Here, we investigate the past and future responses of SWA to increasing climate forcing using 31 CMIP5 GCMs. Twenty-four out of 31 models display a consistent increase in climatological-mean SWA in response to warming. To assess the detectability of a trend in SWA, we compared half-century trends between preindustrial control (PiControl), historical, and RCP8.5 simulations. The probability distribution of the normalized SWA trend obtained through bootstrapping shows neither positive nor negative tendencies of SWA trend in PiControl simulations. Twenty-two of 31 historical simulations exhibit a positive SWA trend. The SWA trends in 26 of 31 RCP8.5 simulations are positive. The finding supports the hypothesis that the positive SWA trend is at least partially driven by increasing external forcing. The linear regression of interannual variability in hydrological extreme frequency on SWA suggests that high SWA is related to increased heavy-rainfall-day frequency over South Asia, the Indochinese Peninsula, and southern China (SA-EA), and to increased dry-spell-day frequency over the northwestern and central United States (NUS) and the southern United States and Mexico (SUS-MEX). The projected amplification of SWA, combined with the relationships between SWA and number of hydrological extremes, may partially explain projected increases in the number of dry spells over NUS and SUS-MEX and the number of heavy-rainfall days over SA-EA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the tropics, the atmospheric circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is a crucial part of the tropical air-sea interaction-the primary process of tropical climate. How it will change under global warming is of great importance to tropical climate change. Here, it is shown that the atmospheric vertical circulation response to local SST anomalies will likely be weakened under global warming using 28 selected models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The weakening of the circulation response to SST anomalies is closely tied to the increased atmospheric stability under global warming, which increases at the same rate as the circulation response decreases-around 8% for 1 K of tropical-mean SST warming. The spatial pattern of background warming can modify-especially in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific-the spatial distribution of the changes in the circulation response. The atmospheric response to SST anomalies may increase where the local background warming is pronouncedly greater than the tropical mean. The general weakening of the atmospheric circulation response to SST anomalies leads to a decreased circulation response to the structured variability of tropical SST anomalies, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole. The decreased circulation response will offset some of the enhancement of the tropical rainfall response to these SST modes as a result of global-warming-induced moisture increase and also implies a decreased amplitude of the tropical air-sea interaction modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has shown that subtropical and extratropical circulations are linked seasonally and in response to climate change. In particular, amplification (weakening) of subtropical stationary eddies is linked to a poleward (equatorward) shift of the extratropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Here the mechanisms linking subtropical and extratropical circulation responses to climate change are examined using prescribed sea surface temperature aquaplanet simulations with a subtropical zonal asymmetry that mimics land-ocean contrasts. A poleward circulation shift occurs in response to uniform global warming even in the presence of subtropical stationary eddies. Subtropical stationary eddies exhibit a weak response to global warming; however, regional warming of temperature (or equivalent potential temperature) over land (ocean) increases (decreases) stationary eddy amplitude and shifts the extratropical circulation poleward (equatorward), consistent with comprehensive models. The stationary eddy response to regional warming is connected to regional moist entropy gradient, energy input to the atmosphere, and gross moist stability changes. Stationary eddy amplitude changes directly affect momentum and moist static energy transport following linear wave and mixing length theories. The transport changes do not follow a fixed-diffusivity framework. Extratropical transient eddy transport changes compensate ~70%-90% of the subtropical stationary eddy transport response. This assumes exact subtropical compensation accounts for a large fraction of the meridional shift of the extratropical circulation in response to regional climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the dependence of the climate response on the altitude of black carbon in the northern subtropics by employing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet mixed layer ocean, with a focus on the pattern changes in the temperature, hydrological cycle, and large-scale circulation. Black carbon added below or within the subtropical low-level clouds tends to suppress convection, which reduces the low cloud amount, resulting in a positive cloud radiative forcing. The warmer northern subtropics then induce a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and a poleward expansion of the descending branch of the northern Hadley cell. As the black carbon-induced local warming is amplified by clouds and is advected by the anomalous Hadley circulation, the entire globe gets warmer. In contrast, black carbon added near the surface increases the buoyancy of air parcels to enhance convection, leading to an increase in the subtropical low cloud amount and a negative cloud radiative forcing. The temperature increase remains local to where black carbon is added and elsewhere decreases, so that the ITCZ is shifted southward and the descending branch of the northern Hadley cell contracts equatorward. Consistent with previous studies, the authors demonstrate that the climate response to black carbon is highly sensitive to the vertical distribution of black carbon relative to clouds; hence, models have to accurately compute the vertical transport of black carbon to enhance their skill in simulating the climatic effects of black carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) can shift meridionally on seasonal and longer time scales. Previous studies have shown that the latitude of the ITCZ is negatively correlated with cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport. For example, the ITCZ shifts southward as the Northern Hemisphere cools and the northward cross-equatorial energy transport strengthens in response. It has remained unclear what controls the sensitivity of the ITCZ position to cross-equatorial energy transport and what other factors may lead to shifts of the ITCZ position. Here it is shown that the sensitivity of the ITCZ position to cross-equatorial energy transport depends on the net energy input to the equatorial atmosphere: the net radiative energy input minus any energy uptake by the oceans. Changes in this energy input can also lead to ITCZ shifts. The cross-equatorial energy transport is related through a series of approximations to interhemispheric asymmetries in the near-surface temperature distribution. The resulting theory of the ITCZ position is tested in idealized general circulation model simulations with a slab ocean as lower boundary condition. In the simulations, cross-equatorial energy transport increases under global warming (primarily because extratropical latent energy fluxes strengthen), and this shifts the ITCZ poleward. The ITCZ shifts equatorward if primarily the tropics warm in response to an increased net energy input to the equatorial atmosphere. The results have implications for explaining the varied response of the ITCZ to global or primarily tropical changes in the atmospheric energy balance, such as those that occur under global warming or El Niño. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both observational analysis and GCM simulations indicate that the tropical Walker circulation is becoming weaker and may continue to weaken as a consequence of climate change. Here, the authors use a conceptual radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) framework to interpret the weakening of the Walker circulation as simulated by the GFDL coupled GCM. Based on the modeled lapse rate and clear-sky cooling rate profiles, the RCE framework can directly compute the change of vertical velocity in the descending branch of the Walker circulation, which agrees with the counterpart simulated by the GFDL model. The results show that the vertical structure of clear-sky radiative cooling rate QR will change in response to the increased water vapor as the globe warms. The authors explain why the change of QR is positive in the uppermost part of the troposphere (<300 hPa) and is negative for the rest of the troposphere. As a result, both the change of clear-sky cooling rate and the change of tropospheric lapse rate contribute to the weakening of circulation. The vertical velocity changes due to the two factors are comparable to each other from the top of the planetary boundary layer to 600 hPa. From 600 to 300 hPa lapse rate changes are the dominant cause of the weakening circulation. Above 300 hPa, the change due to QR is opposite to the change due to lapse rate, which forces a slight increase in vertical velocity that is seen in the model simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the monsoonal and annual-mean Hadley circulation to orbital precession is examined in an idealized atmospheric general circulation model with a simplified representation of land surface processes in subtropical latitudes. When perihelion occurs in the summer of a hemisphere with a subtropical continent, changes in the top-of-atmosphere energy balance, together with a poleward shift of the monsoonal circulation boundary, lead to a strengthening of the monsoonal circulation. Spatial variations in surface heat capacity determine whether radiative perturbations are balanced by energy storage or by atmospheric energy fluxes. Although orbital precession does not affect annual-mean insolation, the annual-mean Hadley circulation does respond to orbital precession because its sensitivity to radiative changes varies over the course of the year: the monsoonal circulation in summer is near the angular momentum-conserving limit and responds directly to radiative changes; whereas in winter, the circulation is affected by the momentum fluxes of extratropical eddies and is less sensitive to radiative changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies with climate models have demonstrated the power of extratropical forcing in causing the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) to shift northward or southward, and paleoclimate data support the notion that there have been large shifts in the ITCZ over time. It is shown that similar notions apply to slab ocean simulations of global warming. Nine slab ocean model simulations from different modeling centers show a wide range of ITCZ shifts in response to doubling carbon dioxide concentrations, which are experienced in a rather zonally symmetric way in the tropics. Using an attribution strategy based on fundamental energetic constraints, it is shown that responses of clouds and ice in the extratropics explain much of the range of ITCZ responses. There are also some positive feedbacks within the tropics due to increasing water vapor content and high clouds in the new ITCZ location, which amplify the changes driven from the extratropics. This study shows the clear importance of simulating extratropical climate responses with fidelity, because in addition to their local importance, the impacts of these climate responses have a large nonlocal impact on rainfall in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric circulation changes during boreal winter of the second half of the twentieth century exhibit a trend toward the positive polarity of both the Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM). This has occurred in concert with other trends in the climate system, most notably a warming of the Indian Ocean. This study explores whether the tropical Indian Ocean warming played a role in forcing these annular trends. Five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are forced with an idealized, transient warming of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA); the results of this indicate that the warming contributed to the annular trend in the NH but offset the annular trend in SH. The latter result implies that the Indian Ocean warming may have partly cancelled the influence of the stratospheric ozone depletion over the southern polar area, which itself forced a trend toward the positive phase of the SAM. Diagnosis of the physical mechanisms for the annular responses indicates that the direct impact of the diabatic heating induced by the Indian Ocean warming does not account for the annular response in the extratropics. Instead, interactions between the forced stationary wave anomalies and transient eddies is key for the formation of annular structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The condition of convective neutrality is assessed in the troposphere by calculating the saturation potential vorticity P* from reanalysis data. Regions of the atmosphere in which saturation entropy is constant along isosurfaces of absolute angular momentum, a state indicative of slantwise-convective neutrality, have values of P* equal to zero. In a global reanalysis dataset spanning the years 1970–2004, tropospheric regions are identified in which P* is near zero, implying that vertical convection or slantwise convection may be important in determining the local thermal stratification. Convectively neutral air masses are common not only in the Tropics but also in higher latitudes, for example, over midlatitude continents in summer and in storm tracks over oceans in winter. Large-scale eddies appear to stabilize parts of the lower troposphere, particularly in winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the ECMWF and the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses show a strengthening of the atmospheric Hadley circulation in boreal winter over the last 50 years, but the intensification is much stronger in the ECMWF than in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. This study focuses on the difference of these trends in the two reanalyses. It is shown that trends in the Hadley circulation in the two reanalyses differ mainly over the tropical western Pacific. This difference is found to be consistent with respective trends of the atmospheric transport of moist static energy, longwave cloud radiative forcing, and upper-level clouds in the two reanalyses. Two independent datasets of upper-level cloud cover and sea level pressure from ship-based measurements are then used to evaluate the reanalyses over the tropical western Pacific. They are found to be more consistent with the trends in the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis than those in the ECMWF reanalysis. The results suggest a weakening of the vertical motion associated with the Hadley circulation in the tropical western Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations—but with larger amplitude—are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August–September–October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June–August and September–November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial structure of annular modes shows a remarkable resemblance to that of the recent trend in the observed circulation (Thompson et al.). This study performs a series of multilevel primitive equation model simulations to examine the extent to which the annular mode is capable of predicting changes in the zonal-mean flow response to external heat perturbations. Each of these simulations represents a statistically steady state and differs from each other in the values of the imposed tropical heating (&Hscript;) and high-latitude cooling (&Cscript;). Defining the annular mode as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of zonal-mean tropospheric zonal wind, it is found that the “climate predictability” is generally high in the small &Cscript;–large &Hscript; region of the parameter space, but is markedly low in the large &Cscript;–small &Hscript; region. In the former region, EOF1 represents meridional meandering of the midlatitude jet, while in the latter region, EOF1 and EOF2 combine to represent coherent poleward propagation of zonal-mean flow anomalies. It is also found that the climate predictability tends to be higher with respect to changes in &Cscript; than to changes in &Hscript;. The implications of these findings for the Southern Hemisphere climate predictability are also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cumulus congestus clouds, with moderate shortwave albedos and cloud-top temperatures near freezing, occur fairly often in the Tropics. These clouds may play an important role in the evolution of the Madden–Julian oscillation and the regulation of relative humidity in the midtroposphere. Despite this importance they are not necessarily simulated very well in global climate models. Surface remote sensing observations and soundings from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) climate research facility at Nauru Island are coupled with a simple parcel model in order to address the following questions about these cloud types: 1) Which environmental factors play a role in determining the depth of tropical convective clouds? 2) What environmental parameters are related to entrainment rate in cumulus congestus clouds? The results presented herein suggest that at Nauru Island a drying of the midtroposphere is more likely to be responsible for limiting congestus cloud-top heights than is a stabilizing of the freezing level. It is also found that low-level CAPE and the RH profile account for the largest portion of the variance in cumulus congestus entrainment rates, consistent with the idea that entrainment rate depends on the buoyant production of turbulent kinetic energy. If the analysis is limited to cases where there is a sounding during the hour preceding the cumulus congestus observations, it is found that the low-level CAPE accounts for 85% of the total variance in entrainment rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical Pacific’s response to transiently increasing atmospheric CO2 is investigated using three ensemble members from a numerically efficient, coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM. The model is forced with a 1% yr-1 increase in CO2 for 110 yr, when the concentration reaches 3 times the modern concentration. The transient greenhouse forcing causes a regionally enhanced warming of the equatorial Pacific, particularly in the far west. This accentuated equatorial heating, which is slow to arise but emerges abruptly during the last half of the simulations, results from both atmospheric and oceanic processes. The key atmospheric mechanism is a rapid local increase in the super–greenhouse effect, whose emergence coincides with enhanced convection and greater high cloud amount once the SST exceeds an apparent threshold around 27°C. The primary oceanic feedback is greater Ekman heat convergence near the equator, due to an anomalous near-equatorial westerly wind stress created by increased rising (sinking) air to the east (west) of Indonesia. The potential dependence of these results on the specific model used is discussed. The suddenness and far-ranging impact of the enhanced, near-equatorial warming during these simulations suggests a mechanism by which abrupt climate changes may be triggered within the Tropics. The extratropical atmospheric response in the Pacific resembles anomalies during present-day El Niño events, while the timing and rapidity of the midlatitude changes are similar to those in the Tropics. In particular, a strengthening of the Pacific jet stream and a spinup of the wintertime Aleutian low seem to be forced by the changes in the tropical Pacific, much as they are in the modern climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of tropical atmospheric hydrologic processes to cloud microphysics is investigated using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM). Results show that a faster autoconversion rate leads to (a) enhanced deep convection in the climatological convective zones anchored to tropical land regions; (b) more warm rain, but less cloud over oceanic regions; and (c) an increased convective-to-stratiform rain ratio over the entire Tropics. Fewer clouds enhance longwave cooling and reduce shortwave heating in the upper troposphere, while more warm rain produces more condensation heating in the lower troposphere. This vertical differential heating destabilizes the tropical atmosphere, producing a positive feedback resulting in more rain and an enhanced atmospheric water cycle over the Tropics. The feedback is maintained via secondary circulations between convective tower and anvil regions (cold rain), and adjacent middle-to-low cloud (warm rain) regions. The lower cell is capped by horizontal divergence and maximum cloud detrainment near the freezing–melting (0°C) level, with rising motion (relative to the vertical mean) in the warm rain region connected to sinking motion in the cold rain region. The upper cell is found above the 0°C level, with induced subsidence in the warm rain and dry regions, coupled to forced ascent in the deep convection region. It is that warm rain plays an important role in regulating the time scales of convective cycles, and in altering the tropical large-scale circulation through radiative–dynamic interactions. Reduced cloud–radiation feedback due to a faster autoconversion rate results in intermittent but more energetic eastward propagating Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs). Conversely, a slower autoconversion rate, with increased cloud radiation produces MJOs with more realistic westward-propagating transients embedded in eastward-propagating supercloud clusters. The implications of the present results on climate change and water cycle dynamics research are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanisms that determine the direct and indirect effects of aerosols on the tropical climate involve moist dynamical processes and have local and remote impacts on regional tropical precipitation. These mechanisms are examined in a climate model of intermediate complexity [quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model (QTCM)] forced by prescribed aerosol forcing, which is obtained from a general circulation model (ECHAM4). The aerosol reflection is the dominant aerosol forcing, while the aerosol absorption has complex but much weaker influences on the regional tropical precipitation based on the ECHAM4 aerosol forcing. The local effect associated with aerosols contributes negative precipitation anomalies over convective regions by affecting the net energy flux into the atmospheric column. This net energy flux is controlled by the radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere on time scales where surface heat flux is near equilibrium, balancing anomalous solar radiation by evaporation, longwave radiation, and sensible heat. Considering the aerosol absorption effect alone, the associated precipitation anomalies are slightly negative but small when surface heat fluxes are near equilibrium. Two effects found in global warming, the upped-ante mechanism and the anomalous gross moist stability mechanism, occur with opposite sign in the aerosol case. Both act as remote effects via the widespread cold tropospheric temperature anomalies induced by the aerosol forcing. In the upped-ante mechanism in global warming, a warm troposphere increases the low-level moisture “ante” required for convection, creating spatially varying moisture anomalies that disfavor precipitation on those margins of convective zones where the mean flow imports air from nonconvective regions. In the aerosol case here, a cool troposphere preferentially decreases moisture in convective regions, creating positive precipitation anomalies at inflow margins. In the anomalous gross moist stability mechanism for the aerosol case, the decrease in moisture in convective regions acts to enhance the gross moist stability, so convection and the associated precipitation are reduced. The partitioning between the aerosol local and remote effects on regional tropical precipitation differs spatially. Over convective regions that have high aerosol concentration, such as the South American region, the aerosol local effect contributes more negative precipitation anomalies than the anomalous gross moist stability mechanism in the QTCM simulations. On the other hand, the remote effect is more important over convective regions with small aerosol concentrations, such as the western Pacific Maritime Continent. Remote effects of midlatitude aerosol forcing have a substantial contribution to tropical anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors demonstrate through atmospheric general circulation model (the Community Climate Model version 3.10) simulations of the 1997/98 El Niño that the observed “remote” (i.e., outside the Pacific) tropical land and ocean surface warming appearing a few months after the peak of the El Niño event is causally linked to the Tropics-wide warming of the troposphere resulting from increased atmospheric heating in the Pacific, with the latter acting as a conduit for the former. Unlike surface temperature, the surface flux behavior in the remote Tropics in response to El Niño is complex, with sizable spatial variation and compensation between individual flux components; this complexity suggests a more fundamental control (i.e., tropospheric temperature) for the remote tropical surface warming. Over the remote oceans, latent heat flux acting through boundary layer humidity variations is the important regulator linking the surface warming in the model simulations to the tropospheric warming over the remote tropical oceans. Idealized 1997/98 El Niño simulations using an intermediate tropical circulation model (the Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model) in which individual surface fluxes are directly manipulated confirms this result. The findings over the remote ocean are consistent with the “tropospheric temperature mechanism” previously proposed for the tropical ENSO teleconnection, with equatorial planetary waves propagating tropospheric temperature anomalies from the eastern Pacific to the remote Tropics and moist convective processes mediating the troposphere-to-remote-surface connection. The latter effectively requires the boundary layer moist static energy to vary in concert with the free tropospheric moist static energy. Over the remote land regions, idealized model simulations suggest that sensible heat flux regulates the warming response to El Niño, though the underlying mechanism has not yet been fully determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) has been analyzed in a long control simulation by the Met Office's Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3). It is shown that internal THC variability in the coupled climate system is concentrated at interannual and centennial time scales, with the centennial mode being dominant. Centennial oscillations of the THC can impact surface climate via an interhemispheric SST contrast of 0.1°C in the Tropics and more than 0.5°C in mid- and high latitudes. A mechanism is proposed based on detailed process analysis involving large-scale air–sea interaction on multidecadal time scales. Anomalous northward ocean heat transport associated with a strong phase of the Atlantic THC generates a cross-equatorial SST gradient. This causes the ITCZ to move to a more northerly position with increased strength. The extra rainfall resulting from the anomalous ITCZ imposes a freshwater flux and produces a salinity anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic. Such sustained salinity anomalies slowly propagate toward the subpolar North Atlantic at a lag of 5–6 decades. The accumulated low-salinity water lowers upper-ocean density, which causes the THC to slow down. The oscillation then enters the opposite phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four years of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are investigated to find the dominant large-scale wave modes in the Tropics. By using space– time cross-section analysis and spectral analysis, the longitudinal and latitudinal behaviors of the overall waves and the dominant waves are observed. Despite the noisy nature of precipitation data and the limited sampling by the TRMM satellite, pronounced peaks are found for Kelvin waves, n = 1 equatorial Rossby waves (ER), and mixed Rossby–gravity waves (MRG). Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical depression (TD)-type disturbances are also detected. The seasonal evolution of these waves is investigated. An appendix includes a study of sampling and aliasing errors due to the peculiar space–time sampling pattern of TRMM. It is shown that the waves detected in this study are not artifacts of these sampling features. The results presented here are compared with previous studies. Consistency with their results gives confidence in the TRMM data for wave studies. The results from this study can be utilized for modeling and testing theories. Also, it may be useful for the future users of the TRMM data to understand the nature of the TRMM satellite sampling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the local phase relationship between the low-level atmospheric circulation and the sea surface temperature (SST) on the duration of atmospheric anomalies is statistically evaluated. Using 5-day-average data from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, it is found that most of the long-lasting atmospheric anomalies are locally coupled with SST anomalies, with their number decreasing from the equator to the extratropics. The longer-lasting anomalies tend to have relationships of cyclonic-over-cold or anticyclonic-over-warm phase in the extratropics, and cyclonic-over-warm or anticyclonic-over-cold in the Tropics. This preferential phase relationship of the long-lasting anomalies is consistent with a predominant “atmosphere-driving” situation in the extratropics and an “ocean-driving” one in the Tropics. A similar analysis using data from a one-way interaction model, with the ocean always forcing the atmosphere is carried out to compare the results with those from the reanalysis. The results show that the one-way interaction produces fewer (more) long-lasting anomalies in the extratropics (Tropics). These differences arise mostly in atmosphere-driving situations, namely, the cyclonic-over-cold or anticyclonic-over-warm phase relation. This suggests that ignoring the atmosphere's feedback effect on the ocean can lead to erroneous damping (lengthening) of atmospheric anomalies in the extratropics (Tropics). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A regional atmospheric model is used to study the effects of the narrow and steep Andes on the eastern Pacific climate. In the Southern Hemisphere cold season (i.e., August–October 1999), the model reproduces key climatic features, including the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of the equator and an extensive low-level cloud deck capped by a temperature inversion to the south. Blocking the warm easterly winds from South America, the Andes help maintain the divergence and temperature inversion and, hence, the stratocumulus cloud deck over the southeast Pacific off South America. In an experiment where the Andean mountains are removed, the warm advection from the South American continent lowers the inversion height and reduces the low-level divergence offshore, leading to a significant reduction in cloud amount and an increase in solar radiation that reaches the sea surface. In March and early April 1999, the model simulates a double ITCZ in response to the seasonal warming on and south of the equator, in agreement with satellite observations. Under the same sea surface temperature forcing, the removal of the Andes prolongs the existence of the southern ITCZ for 3 weeks. Without the mountains, the intrusion of the easterlies from South America enhances the convergence in the lower atmosphere, and the transient disturbances travel freely westward from the continent. Both effects of the Andes removal favor deep convection south of the equator. The same sensitivity experiments are repeated with orography used in T42 global models, and the results confirm that an underrepresentation of the Andes reduces the stratus clouds in the cold season and prolongs the southern ITCZ in the warm season, with both acting to weaken the latitudinal asymmetry of eastern Pacific climate. The implications of these results for coupled modeling of climatic asymmetry are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical intraseasonal convective anomalies (TICA) have a central role in subseasonal changes in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system, but the climatology of TICA events has not been properly documented. This study exploits 24 years of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data and a tracking algorithm to develop a climatology of eastward propagating TICA events. Three distinct types of TICA occurrences are documented according to their propagation characteristics. The first type (IND) is characterized by events that propagate in the Indian Ocean without significant influence in the western Pacific Ocean. The second and third types are associated with occurrences of the Madden–Julian oscillation during boreal winters (MJO) and summers (ISO). The frequency of occurrence of TICA events is highest in April–June and October–December and lowest in July–September. An analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics reveals that MJO events tend to have the longest life cycle, greatest intensity, and largest variability inside the contiguous region of OLR anomaly. Given the data record of 24 years, the analysis of interannual occurrences of TICA events does not show statistically significant differences among events that occur in different phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A procedure is developed to identify major MJO events and estimate their frequency of occurrence in the data record. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate to prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that are modified from the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) study. Based on the consensus from various LGM proxy data, the SSTs are cooled by 4°C uniformly in the Tropics (30°N–30°S) relative to CLIMAP, and the high-latitude sea ice extent is reduced. Compared to results from a simulation with CLIMAP SSTs, the modified LGM SSTs cause significant opposing changes in the hemispheric and regional-scale atmospheric circulation, which are most pronounced in the winter hemisphere. For instance, there is significant weakening of the midlatitude circulation and reduction of 500-hPa eddy kinetic energy and midlatitude precipitation resulting from the decreased meridional temperature gradient in the modified SST simulation. In contrast, reduced sea ice extent during the boreal winter causes increased regional baroclinicity and intensified atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific and the North Atlantic. Cooled tropical SSTs also increase the land–ocean temperature contrast, which strengthens the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Both LGM simulations produce enhanced low-level convergence and increased precipitation along the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) relative to present day, despite the cooler LGM climate. The SPCZ orientation and intensity are closely linked to the distribution of South Pacific SSTs. Comparison of surface temperature estimates from land- and ocean-based proxy data with model output suggests that uniform cooling of the tropical SSTs and modification of the high-latitude sea ice extent may be sufficient to accurately simulate the first-order characteristics of the LGM climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent decadal regime shifts in the large-scale circulation of the tropical atmosphere are examined using analyses and independent observations of the circulation and precipitation. Comparisons between reanalysis products and independent observations suggest that the shifts that are apparent and significant in the reanalysis products may be artifacts of changes in the observing system and/or the data assimilation procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A detailed vertically integrated atmospheric heat and energy budget is presented along with estimated heat budgets at the surface and top-of-atmosphere for the subtropics. It is shown that the total energy transports are remarkably seamless in spite of greatly varying mechanisms. From the Tropics to about 31° latitude, the primary transport mechanisms are the Hadley and Walker overturning circulations. In the extratropics the energy transports are carried out by baroclinic eddies broadly organized into storm tracks and quasi-stationary waves that covary in a symbiotic way as the location and activity in storm tracks are determined by, and in turn help maintain through eddy transports, the quasi-stationary flow. In the upward branch of the Hadley cell, the predominant diabatic process is latent heating that results from convergence of moisture by the circulation itself. Hence large poleward transports of dry static energy are compensated by equatorward transports of latent energy, resulting in a modest poleward transport of moist static energy. The subsidence warming in the downward branch is compensated by cooling in the subtropics that mainly arises from energy transport to higher latitudes by transient baroclinic eddies that are stronger in the winter hemisphere. Effectively, the outgoing longwave radiation to space is distributed over middle and high latitudes and is not limited to the clear dry regions in the subtropics. Further, some of the radiative cooling in the subtropics is a consequence of the circulation. Hence the cooling by transient eddies in the subtropics is a fundamental driver of the observed Hadley circulation and realizes the seamless transport from Tropics to extratropics, while tropical sea surface temperatures over the oceans determine where the upward branch is located. The relatively clear skies in the subtropics further provide for ample absorption of solar radiation at the surface where it feeds strong evaporation, which exceeds precipitation, and supplies the equatorward flow of latent energy into the upward branch of the Hadley circulation as well as the poleward transports into midlatitude storm tracks. The evaporation is sufficiently strong that it is also compensated by a subsurface ocean heat transport that in turn is driven by the Hadley circulation surface winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors present a new model of the tropical surface circulation, forced by changes in sensible heat and evaporative flux anomalies that are associated with prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies. The model is similar to the Lindzen and Nigam (LN) boundary layer model, also driven by the above flux anomalies; but here, since the boundary layer is assumed well mixed and capped by an inversion, the model reduces to a two-layer, reduced-gravity system. Furthermore, the rate of exchange of mass across the boundary layer--free at-mosphere interface is dependent on the moisture budget in the boundary layer. When moist convection is diagnosed to occur, detrainment operates on the timescale associated with the life cycle of deep convection, approximately eight hours. Otherwise, the detrainment is assumed to be associated with the mixing out of the stable tropical boundary layer, which has a timescale of about one day. The model provides a diagnostic estimate of the anomalies in precipitation. However, it is assumed that the latent heat is released above the boundary layer, and it drives a circulation that does not impact the boundary layer. The authors discuss the derivations of the Gill--Zebiak (GZ) and Lindzen--Nigam models and highlight some apparent inconsistencies between their derivation and the values of several of the parameters that are required for these models to achieve realistic solutions for the circulations. Then, the new reduced-gravity boundary model equations are rewritten in the form of the GZ and LN models. Using realistic values for the parameters in the new model geometry, it is shown that the constants combine in the rewritten equations to produce the physically doubtful constants in the GZ and LN models, hence, the reason for the apparent success of these models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an El Niño event, positive SST anomalies usually appear in remote ocean basins such as the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, and the tropical North Atlantic approximately 3 to 6 months after SST anomalies peak in the tropical Pacific. Ship data from 1952 to 1992 and satellite data from the 1980s both demonstrate that changes in atmospheric circulation accompanying El Niño induce changes in cloud cover and evaporation which, in turn, increase the net heat flux entering these remote oceans. It is postulated that this increased heat flux is responsible for the surface warming of these oceans. Specifically, over the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea, enhanced subsidence during El Niño reduces cloud cover and increases the solar radiation absorbed by the ocean, thereby leading to enhanced SSTs. In the tropical North Atlantic, a weakening of the trade winds during El Niño reduces surface evaporation and increases SSTs. These relationships fit the concept of an "atmospheric bridge" that connects SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific to those in remote tropical oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]