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The 1976 Pacific climate shift is examined, and its manifestations and significance in Alaskan climatology during the last half-century are demonstrated. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index shifted in 1976 from dominantly negative values for the 25-yr time period 1951–75 to dominantly positive values for the period 1977–2001. Mean annual and seasonal temperatures for the positive phase were up to 3.1°C higher than for the negative phase. Likewise, mean cloudiness, wind speeds, and precipitation amounts increased, while mean sea level pressure and geopotential heights decreased. The pressure decrease resulted in a deepening of the Aleutian low in winter and spring. The intensification of the Aleutian low increased the advection of relatively warm and moist air to Alaska and storminess over the state during winter and spring. The regime shift is also examined for its effect on the long-term temperature trends throughout the state. The trends that have shown climatic warming are strongly biased by the sudden shift in 1976 from the cooler regime to a warmer regime. When analyzing the total time period from 1951 to 2001, warming is observed; however, the 25-yr period trend analyses before 1976 (1951–75) and thereafter (1977–2001) both display cooling, with a few exceptions. In this paper, emphasis is placed on the importance of taking into account the sudden changes that result from abrupt climatic shifts, persistent regimes, and the possibility of cyclic oscillations, such as the PDO, in the analysis of long-term climate change in Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The progress made in the Land--Atmosphere--Ice Interactions Flux Study over the past 4 yr to fully characterize the biophysical fluxes in the snow-free tundra ecosystem and their relationship to climate and climate change is described. This paper is the result of a synthesis effort to bring together the measurements of surface fluxes at various sites on the North Slope of Alaska in the snow-free period of 1995 with the results of modeling efforts for this region. It is found that methodological and site dissimilarities contribute to measurement dif-ferences at least as much as instrument and sampling error, even for closely collocated and similarly vegetated sites. The regional climate model employed in this study generally simulates fluxes that are within the range of measured fluxes, but tends to overestimate both net radiation and latent heat fluxes. The regional model also captures site to site variations quite well, which appear to be more sensitive to mesoscale meteorological conditions than on specifics of site characteristics. The active layer model employed in this study performs well in estimating ground heat flux but rather more poorly in simulating turbulent fluxes. The global climate model is unable to capture the broad-scale response of the land surface sensible heat flux and net radiation, although it performs rather better in the simulation of latent and ground heat fluxes. Finally, the intended purposes and applications of both data and model simulations have a strong impact on their applicability to other studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]