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The dominant interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENSO signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, an ENSO-removal method is developed through which the ENSO signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations are isolated at mid- and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalysis datasets. This paper addresses the long-term global warming trend (GW); a companion paper concentrates on Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV). The warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4 K in the twentieth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8 K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with the GW trend is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamics and water vapor fields. The dynamics fields based on NCEP–NCAR, which show a change in the Walker Circulation, are consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in ERA-40 instead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the newly available decade-long Argo data for the period 2004-13, a detailed study is carried out on deriving four-dimensional (4D) modality of sea temperature in the upper ocean with emphasis on its interannual variability in terms of amplitude, phase, and periodicity. Three principal modes with central periodicities at 19.2, 33.8, and 50.3 months have been identified, and their relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated, yielding a number of useful results and conclusions: 1) A striking tick-shaped pipe-like feature of interannual variability maxima, which is named the 'Niño pipe' in this paper, has been revealed within the 10°S-10°N upper Pacific Ocean. 2) The pipe core extends downward from ~50 m at 130°E to ~250 m near the date line before tilting upward to the sea surface at about 275°E, coinciding nicely with the pathway of the Pacific equatorial undercurrent (EUC). 3) The double-peak zonal modality pattern of the Niño pipe in the upper Pacific is echoed in the subsurface Atlantic and Indian Oceans through Walker circulation, while its single-peak meridional modality pattern is mirrored in the subsurface North and South Pacific through Hadley circulation. 4) A coherent three-peak modal structure implies a strong coupling between sea level variability at the surface and sea temperature variability around the thermocline. Accumulating evidence suggests that Rossby/Kelvin wave dynamics in tandem with EUC-based thermocline dynamics are the main mechanisms of the three-mode Niño pipe in ENSO cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis is presented. The spatial pattern of the swell dominance of the earth''s oceans, in terms of the wave field energy balance and wave field characteristics, is also investigated. Statistical analysis shows that the global ocean is strongly dominated by swell waves. The interannual variability of the wind-sea and swell significant wave heights, and how they are related to the resultant significant wave height, is analyzed over the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. The leading modes of variability of wind sea and swell demonstrate noticeable differences, particularly in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. During the Northern Hemisphere winter, a strong north--south swell propagation pattern is observed in the Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant secular increases in the wind-sea and swell significant wave heights are found in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important question in assessing twentieth-century climate change is to what extent have ENSO-related variations contributed to the observed trends. Isolating such contributions is challenging for several reasons, including ambiguities arising from how ENSO itself is defined. In particular, defining ENSO in terms of a single index and ENSO-related variations in terms of regressions on that index, as done in many previous studies, can lead to wrong conclusions. This paper argues that ENSO is best viewed not as a number but as an evolving dynamical process for this purpose. Specifically, ENSO is identified with the four dynamical eigenvectors of tropical SST evolution that are most important in the observed evolution of ENSO events. This definition is used to isolate the ENSO-related component of global SST variations on a month-by-month basis in the 136-yr (1871–2006) Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST). The analysis shows that previously identified multidecadal variations in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans all have substantial ENSO components. The long-term warming trends over these oceans are also found to have appreciable ENSO components, in some instances up to 40% of the total trend. The ENSO-unrelated component of 5-yr average SST variations, obtained by removing the ENSO-related component, is interpreted as a combination of anthropogenic, naturally forced, and internally generated coherent multidecadal variations. The following two surprising aspects of these ENSO-unrelated variations are emphasized: 1) a strong cooling trend in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and 2) a nearly zonally symmetric multidecadal tropical–extratropical seesaw that has amplified in recent decades. The latter has played a major role in modulating SSTs over the Indian Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variety of observational and modeling studies show that changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) can induce rapid global-scale climate change. In particular, a substantially weakened AMOC leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. However, the simulated amplitudes of the AMOC-induced tropical climate change differ substantially among different models. In this paper, the sensitivity to cloud feedback of the climate response to a change in the AMOC is studied using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model [the GFDL Coupled Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1)]. Without cloud feedback, the simulated AMOC-induced climate change in this model is weakened substantially. Low-cloud feedback has a strong amplifying impact on the tropical ITCZ shift in this model, whereas the effects of high-cloud feedback are weaker. It is concluded that cloud feedback is an important contributor to the uncertainty in the global response to AMOC changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study extends recent ocean reanalysis comparisons to explore improvements to several next-generation products, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, version 3 (SODA3); the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, version 4, release 3 (ECCO4r3); and the Ocean Reanalysis System 5 (ORAS5), during their 23-yr period of overlap (1993–2015). The three reanalyses share similar historical hydrographic data, but the forcings, forward models, estimation algorithms, and bias correction methods are different. The study begins by comparing the reanalyses to independent analyses of historical SST, heat, and salt content, as well as examining the analysis-minus-observation misfits. While the misfits are generally small, they still reveal some systematic biases that are not present in the reference Hadley Center EN4 objective analysis. We next explore global trends in temperature averaged into three depth intervals: 0–300, 300–1000, and 1000–2000 m. We find considerable similarity in the spatial structure of the trends and their distribution among different ocean basins; however, the trends in global averages do differ by 30%–40%, which implies an equivalent level of disagreement in net surface heating rates. ECCO4r3 is distinct in having quite weak warming trends while ORAS5 has stronger trends that are noticeable in the deeper layers. To examine the performance of the reanalyses in the Arctic we explore representation of Atlantic Water variability on the Atlantic side of the Arctic and upper-halocline freshwater storage on the Pacific side of the Arctic. These comparisons are encouraging for the application of ocean reanalyses to track ocean climate variability and change at high northern latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely appreciated that ozone-depleting substances (ODS), which have led to the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole, are also powerful greenhouse gases. In this study, we explore the consequence of the surface warming caused by ODS in the second half of the twentieth century over the Indo-Pacific Ocean, using the Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (version 4). By contrasting two ensembles of chemistry–climate model integrations (with and without ODS forcing) over the period 1955–2005, we show that the additional greenhouse effect of ODS is crucial to producing a statistically significant weakening of the Walker circulation in our model over that period. When ODS concentrations are held fixed at 1955 levels, the forcing of the other well-mixed greenhouse gases alone leads to a strengthening—rather than weakening—of the Walker circulation because their warming effect is not sufficiently strong. Without increasing ODS, a surface warming delay in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean leads to an increase in the sea surface temperature gradient between the eastern and western Pacific, with an associated strengthening of the Walker circulation. When increasing ODS are added, the considerably larger total radiative forcing produces a much faster warming in the eastern Pacific, causing the sign of the trend to reverse and the Walker circulation to weaken. Our modeling result suggests that ODS may have been key players in the observed weakening of the Walker circulation over the second half of the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) based on instrumental observations suggest that the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient has increased over the twentieth century. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al., observations of a concurrent weakening of the zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation are not. Here we show, using heat and momentum budget calculations on an ocean reanalysis dataset, that a seasonal weakening of the zonal atmospheric circulation is in fact consistent with cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and thus an increase in the zonal SST gradient. This cooling is driven by a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in response to decreased upper-ocean westward momentum associated with weakening equatorial zonal wind stress. This process can help to reconcile the seemingly contradictory twentieth-century trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean. Moreover, it is shown that coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) do not correctly simulate this process; we identify a systematic bias in the relationship between changes in equatorial surface zonal wind stress in the EEP and EUC strength that may help to explain why observations and CGCMs have opposing trends in the zonal SST gradient over the twentieth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increases in greenhouse gas emissions are expected to cause changes both in climatic variability in the Pacific linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and in long-term average climate. While mean state and variability changes have been studied separately, much less is known about their combined impact or relative importance. Additionally, studies of projected changes in ENSO have tended to focus on changes in, or adjacent to, the Pacific. Here we examine projected changes in climatic conditions during El Niño years and in ENSO-driven precipitation variability in 36 CMIP5 models. The models are forced according to the RCP8.5 scenario in which there are large, unmitigated increases in greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. We examine changes over much of the globe, including 25 widely spread regions defined in the IPCC special report Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). We confirm that precipitation variability associated with ENSO is projected to increase in the tropical Pacific, consistent with earlier research. We also find that the enhanced tropical Pacific variability drives ENSO-related variability increases in 19 SREX regions during DJF and in 18 during JJA. This externally forced increase in ENSO-driven precipitation variability around the world is on the order of 15%–20%. An increase of this size, although substantial, is easily masked at the regional level by internally generated multidecadal variability in individual runs. The projected changes in El Niño–driven precipitation variability are typically much smaller than projected changes in both mean state and ENSO neutral conditions in nearly all regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Results show a strong asymmetry in SST changes. In the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP), the warming responding to the positive forcing exceeds the cooling response to the negative forcing, whereas in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) it is the other way around and the cooling surpasses the warming. This leads to a zonal dipole asymmetric structure, with positive values in the east and negative values in the west. A surface heat budget analysis suggests that the SST asymmetry mainly results from the oceanic horizontal advection and vertical entrainment, with both of their linear and nonlinear components playing a role. For the linear component, its change appears to be more significant over the EEP (WEP) in the positive (negative) forcing scenario, favoring the seesaw pattern of the SST asymmetry. For the nonlinear component, its change acts to warm (cool) the EEP (WEP) in both scenarios, also favorable for the development of the SST asymmetry. Additional experiments with a slab ocean confirm the dominant role of ocean dynamical processes for this SST asymmetry. The net surface heat flux, in contrast, works to reduce the SST asymmetry through its shortwave radiation and latent heat flux components, with the former being related to the nonlinear relationship between SST and convection, and the latter being attributable to Newtonian damping and air-sea stability effects. The suppressing effect of shortwave radiation on SST asymmetry is further verified by partially coupled overriding experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have suggested that significant parts of the observed warming in the early and the late twentieth century were caused by multidecadal internal variability centered in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Here, a novel approach is used that searches for segments of unforced preindustrial control simulations from global climate models that best match the observed Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability (AMV and PMV, respectively). In this way, estimates of the influence of AMV and PMV on global temperature that are consistent both spatially and across variables are made. Combined Atlantic and Pacific internal variability impacts the global surface temperatures by up to 0.15°C from peak-to-peak on multidecadal time scales. Internal variability contributed to the warming between the 1920s and 1940s, the subsequent cooling period, and the warming since then. However, variations in the rate of warming still remain after removing the influence of internal variability associated with AMV and PMV on the global temperatures. During most of the twentieth century, AMV dominates over PMV for the multidecadal internal variability imprint on global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Less than 10% of the observed global warming during the second half of the twentieth century is caused by internal variability in these two ocean basins, reinforcing the attribution of most of the observed warming to anthropogenic forcings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of global sea surface temperature yields modes in which interannual variability associated with ENSO and the lower-frequency variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are confounded with one another and with the signature of global warming. The confounded EOFs exhibit overlapping centers of action with polarities of the perturbations juxtaposed such that the respective modes are mutually orthogonal in the global domain. When physical modes with different time scales appear in the same pair of EOFs, the principal component (PC) time series tend to be positively correlated in one frequency band and negatively correlated in another. Mode mixing may be a reflection of sampling variability or it may reflect the lack of spatial orthogonality of the physical modes themselves. Using sequences of pairwise orthogonal rotations of selected PCs, it is possible, without recourse to filtering, to recover a global warming mode with a bland spatial pattern and a nearly linear upward trend, along with dynamical modes, each with its own characteristic time scale, that resemble ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO. Novel elements of this analysis include a rationale for choosing the optimal angle for pairwise rotation and a simple algorithm for eliminating mode mixing between the dynamical modes and the global warming mode by transferring the linear trends from the former to the latter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change under global warming affects changes in extreme events around the world. The change of ENSO amplitude is investigated based on the historical simulations and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The projected change in ENSO amplitude is highly uncertain with large intermodel uncertainty. By using the relative sea surface temperature (SST) as a measure of convective instability, this study finds that the spatial pattern of tropical Pacific surface warming is the major source of intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. In models with an enhanced mean warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the barrier to deep convection is reduced, and the intensified rainfall anomalies of ENSO amplify the wind response and hence SST variability. In models with a reduced eastern Pacific warming, conversely, ENSO amplitude decreases. Corroborating the mean SST pattern effect, intermodel uncertainty in changes of ENSO-induced rainfall variability decreases substantially in atmospheric simulations forced by a common ocean warming pattern. Thus, reducing the uncertainty in the Pacific surface warming pattern helps improve the reliability of ENSO projections. To the extent that correcting model biases favors an El Niño-like mean warming pattern, this study suggests an increase in ENSO-related SST variance likely under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) has intensified during the past three decades. However, the underlying mechanism is not yet well understood. Here, it is shown that baiu rainband activity in midsummer, which is part of the East Asian summer monsoon, plays an important role in recent intensification in the WPSH along the baiu rainband. In contrast with the WPSH, the summer Okhotsk high, which is located to the north of the baiu rainband, has weakened during the past three decades. The north-south contrasting changes between the two highs reflect a response to northward-moved and enhanced baiu heating, which intensifies the upper-tropospheric ridge, resulting in the baroclinic intensification of the WPSH. Regional climate model experiments also support the observational analysis. Therefore, baiu convective activity in midsummer can act as a major driver for the WPSH intensification. The results here suggest that the mechanism intensifying the summer North Pacific subtropical high clearly differs between the western and eastern Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research shows that blocking highs (BHs) influence wintertime polar stratospheric variability through the modulation of the climatological planetary waves (PWs) depending on the BH location. BHs over the Euro-Atlantic sector tend to enhance the upward PW propagation, and those over the northwestern Pacific Ocean tend to reduce it. Future changes are examined in the response of the wave activity flux to the BH location and their relationship with wintertime stratospheric variability in transient simulations of ECHAM/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC). After it is verified that EMAC can reproduce qualitatively well the geographical dependence of the BH influence on PW activity injection, it is shown that this dependence does not change in the future. However, an eastward shift of the pattern of the BH influence on PW propagation over the Pacific, a farther eastward extension of the pattern over the Atlantic Ocean, and an intensification of the wavenumber-1 component of the interaction between climatological and anomalous waves are detected. Changes in the upper-tropospheric jet and an intensification of the wavenumber-1 climatological wave due to a strengthening of the Aleutian low agree with these variations. The spatial distribution of future BHs preceding extreme polar vortex events is also affected by the slight modifications in the wave activity pattern. Hence, future BHs preceding strong vortex events tend to be more concentrated over the Pacific than in the past, where BHs interfere negatively with wavenumber-1 climatological waves. Future BHs prior to major stratospheric warmings are located in a broader area than in the past, predominantly over an extended Euro-Atlantic sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming has large implications for rainfall patterns, and identifying the most plausible pattern of rainfall change over the next century among various model projections would be valuable for future planning. The spatial pattern of projected sea surface temperature change has a key influence on rainfall changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here it is shown that simple indices of the size of the equatorial peak in the spatial pattern of warming and to a lesser extent the hemispheric asymmetry in warming are useful for classifying the surface temperature change in different models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Models with a more pronounced equatorial warming show a fairly distinct rainfall response compared to those with more uniform warming, including a greater 'warmer-get-wetter' or dynamical response, whereby rainfall increases follow the surface warming anomaly. Models with a more uniform warming pattern project a smaller rainfall increase at the equator and a rainfall increase in the southern tropical Pacific, a pattern that is distinct from the multimodel mean of CMIP5. Thus, the magnitude of enhanced equatorial warming and to some extent the hemispheric asymmetry in warming provides a useful framework for constraining rainfall projections. While there is not a simple emergent constraint for enhanced equatorial warming in models in terms of past trends or bias in the current climate, further understanding of the various feedbacks involved in these features could lead to a useful constraint of rainfall for the Pacific region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projected increases in greenhouse gases have prompted serious discussion on geoengineering the climate system to counteract global climate change. Cloud albedo enhancement has been proposed as a feasible geoengineering approach, but previous research suggests undesirable consequences of globally uniform cloud brightening. The present study uses GFDL's Climate Model version 2G (CM2G) global coupled model to simulate cloud albedo enhancement via increases in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) to 1000 cm−3 targeted at the marine stratus deck of the Pacific Ocean, where persistent low clouds suggest a regional approach to cloud brightening. The impact of this regional geoengineering on global circulation and climate in the presence of a 1% annual increase of CO2 was investigated. Surface temperatures returned to near preindustrial levels over much of the globe with cloud modifications in place. In the first 40 years and over the 140-yr mean, significant cooling over the equatorial Pacific, continued Arctic warming, large precipitation changes over the western Pacific, and a westward compression and intensification of the Walker circulation were observed in response to cloud brightening. The cloud brightening caused a persistent La Niña condition associated with an increase in hurricane maximum potential intensity and genesis potential index, and decreased vertical wind shear between July and November in the tropical Atlantic, South China Sea, and to the east of Japan. Responses were similar with CCN = 500 cm−3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) trend and ENSO amplitude by comparing a historical run of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase-5 multimodel ensemble dataset (CMIP5) and the CMIP phase-3 dataset (CMIP3). The results indicate that the magnitude of the SST trend in the tropical Pacific basin has been significantly reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5, which may be associated with the overestimation of the response to natural forcing and aerosols by including Earth system models in CMIP5. Moreover, the patterns of tropical warming over the second half of the twentieth century have changed from a La Niña-like structure in CMIP3 to an El Niño-like structure in CMIP5. Further analysis indicates that such changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific and an increase in the sensitivity of the atmospheric response to the SST changes in the eastern tropical Pacific have influenced the ENSO properties. In particular, the ratio of the SST anomaly variance in the eastern and western tropical Pacific increased from CMIP3 to CMIP5, indicating that a center of action associated with the ENSO amplitude has shifted to the east. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A linear trend calculated for observed annual mean surface air temperatures over the United States for the second-half of the twentieth century shows a slight cooling over the southeastern part of the country, the so-called warming hole, while temperatures over the rest of the country rose significantly. This east-west gradient of average temperature change has contributed to the observed pattern of changes of record temperatures as given by the ratio of daily record high temperatures to record low temperatures with a comparable east-west gradient. Ensemble averages of twentieth-century climate simulations in the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), show a slight west-east warming gradient but no warming hole. A warming hole appears in only several ensemble members in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset and in one ensemble member of simulated twentieth-century climate in CCSM3. In this model the warming hole is produced mostly from internal decadal time-scale variability originating mainly from the equatorial central Pacific associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Analyses of a long control run of the coupled model, and specified convective heating anomaly experiments in the atmosphere-only version of the model, trace the forcing of the warming hole to positive convective heating anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean near the date line. Cold-air advection into the southeastern United States in winter, and low-level moisture convergence in that region in summer, contribute most to the warming hole in those seasons. Projections show a disappearance of the warming hole, but ongoing greater surface temperature increases in the western United States compared to the eastern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) is described, and its solutions from the twentieth-century (20C) simulations are documented in comparison with observations and those of CCSM3. The improvements to the ocean model physical processes include new parameterizations to represent previously missing physics and modifications of existing parameterizations to incorporate recent new developments. In comparison with CCSM3, the new solutions show some significant improvements that can be attributed to these model changes. These include a better equatorial current structure, a sharper thermocline, and elimination of the cold bias of the equatorial cold tongue all in the Pacific Ocean; reduced sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases along the North Atlantic Current path; and much smaller potential temperature and salinity biases in the near-surface Pacific Ocean. Other improvements include a global-mean SST that is more consistent with the present-day observations due to a different spinup procedure from that used in CCSM3. Despite these improvements, many of the biases present in CCSM3 still exist in CCSM4. A major concern continues to be the substantial heat content loss in the ocean during the preindustrial control simulation from which the 20C cases start. This heat loss largely reflects the top of the atmospheric model heat loss rate in the coupled system, and it essentially determines the abyssal ocean potential temperature biases in the 20C simulations. There is also a deep salty bias in all basins. As a result of this latter bias in the deep North Atlantic, the parameterized overflow waters cannot penetrate much deeper than in CCSM3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pacific Ocean sea surface height trends from satellite altimeter observations for 1993--2009 are examined in the context of longer tide gauge records and wind stress patterns. The dominant regional trends are high rates in the western tropical Pacific and minimal to negative rates in the eastern Pacific, particularly off North America. Interannual sea level variations associated with El Niñño--Southern Oscillation events do not account for these trends. In the western tropical Pacific, tide gauge records indicate that the recent high rates represent a significant trend increase in the early 1990s relative to the preceding 40 years. This sea level trend shift in the western Pacific corresponds to an intensification of the easterly trade winds across the tropical Pacific. The wind change appears to be distinct from climate variations centered in the North Pacific, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the eastern Pacific, tide gauge records exhibit higher-amplitude decadal fluctuations than in the western tropical Pacific, and the recent negative sea level trends are indistinguishable from these fluctuations. The shifts in trade wind strength and western Pacific sea level rate resemble changes in dominant global modes of outgoing longwave radiation and sea surface temperature. It is speculated that the western Pacific sea level response indicates a general strengthening of the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific since the early 1990s that has developed in concert with recent warming trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the apparent coupling between an intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric moist deep convection for a particularly high-amplitude event during the winter of 1986/87. This wave was initiated initially by westerly wind bursts that developed in association with the Madden--Julian oscillation (MJO). After initiation by the MJO, the active convective anomaly slowed to roughly 1.5 m s−−1, suggesting that the event became distinct from the MJO, which usually propagates at roughly 5--7 m s−−1. This study demonstrates how surface winds, currents, SST anomalies, fluxes of sensible and latent heat across the sea surface, and atmospheric convection evolve throughout the event. Results suggest that the convective envelope and oceanic Kelvin wave are mutually beneficial and serve to prolong and enhance each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate model simulations run as part of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group initiative were analyzed to determine the impact of three patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on drought and pluvial frequency and intensity around the world. The three SST forcing patterns include a global pattern similar to the background warming trend, a pattern in the Pacific, and a pattern in the Atlantic. Five different global atmospheric models were forced by fixed SSTs to test the impact of these SST anomalies on droughts and pluvials relative to a climatologically forced control run. The five models generally yield similar results in the locations of drought and pluvial frequency changes throughout the annual cycle in response to each given SST pattern. In all of the simulations, areas with an increase in the mean drought (pluvial) conditions tend to also show an increase in the frequency of drought (pluvial) events. Additionally, areas with more frequent extreme events also tend to show higher intensity extremes. The cold Pacific anomaly increases drought occurrence in the United States and southern South America and increases pluvials in Central America and northern and central South America. The cold Atlantic anomaly increases drought occurrence in southern Central America, northern South America, and central Africa and increases pluvials in central South America. The warm Pacific and Atlantic anomalies generally lead to reversals of the drought and pluvial increases described with the corresponding cold anomalies. More modest impacts are seen in other parts of the world. The impact of the trend pattern is generally more modest than that of the two other anomaly patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) changes constitute a major indicator and driver of climate changes induced by greenhouse gas increases. The objective of the present study is to investigate the role played by the detailed structure of the SST change on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the distribution of precipitation. For that purpose, simulations from the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model, version 4 (IPSL-CM4) are used where the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is doubled. The response of IPSL-CM4 is characterized by the same robust mechanisms affecting the other coupled models in global warming simulations, that is, an increase of the hydrological cycle accompanied by a global weakening of the large-scale circulation. First, purely atmospheric simulations are performed to mimic the results of the coupled model. Then, specific simulations are set up to further study the underlying atmospheric mechanisms. These simulations use different prescribed SST anomalies, which correspond to a linear decomposition of the IPSL-CM4 SST changes in global, longitudinal, and latitudinal components. The simulation using a globally uniform increase of the SST is able to reproduce the modifications in the intensity of the hydrological cycle or in the mean upward mass flux, which also characterize the double CO2 simulation with the coupled model. But it is necessary (and largely sufficient) to also take into account the zonal-mean meridional structure of the SST changes to represent correctly the changes in the Hadley circulation strength or the zonal-mean precipitation changes simulated by the coupled model, even if these meridional changes by themselves do not change the mean thermodynamical state of the tropical atmosphere. The longitudinal SST anomalies of IPSL-CM4 also have an impact on the precipitation and large-scale tropical circulation and tend to introduce different changes over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The longitudinal SST changes are demonstrated to have a smaller but opposite effect from that of the meridional anomalies on the Hadley cell circulations. Results indicate that the uncertainties in the simulated meridional patterns of the SST warming may have major consequences on the assessment of the changes of the Hadley circulation and zonal-mean precipitation in future climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interactive ensemble coupling strategy has been developed specifically to determine how noise due to internal atmosphere dynamics impacts climate variability within the context of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In this study the authors investigate the impact of internal atmospheric variability on the ENSO variability using four CGCM simulations. In the control simulation, the interactive ensemble strategy is applied globally, thereby reducing the noise at the air–sea interface at each ocean grid point. In the second and third CGCM simulations, the interactive ensemble strategy is applied locally in the extratropics versus the tropics only, respectively. In addition, those results were compared with a standard CGCM. The results suggest that tropical internal atmospheric variability strengthens the interannual-to-decadal ENSO variability and leads to a broader spectral peak. However, the noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics plays different roles when the interannual and decadal ENSO variability is considered separately. There are noise-induced changes in the SST–zonal wind stress feedbacks from interannual to decadal time scales. The tropical atmospheric internal variability largely modifies the frequency as opposed to the amplitude of the ENSO variability on interannual time scales. In contrast, tropical internal atmospheric variability is effective in forcing decadal ENSO variability, resulting in a significant decrease of decadal ENSO amplitude in the central tropical Pacific in a CGCM when the noise is reduced. The authors argue that the decadal ENSO variability is directly affected by the low-frequency noise over the western part of the tropical Pacific in a linear sense. On the other hand, the impact of extratropical atmospheric noise on the ENSO variability is weaker than the noise in the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant shift from cooler to warmer tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), part of a pattern of basinwide SST anomalies involved with a transition to the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), occurred in the mid-1970s with effects that extended globally. One view is that this change was entirely natural and was a product of internally generated decadal variability of the Pacific climate system. However, during the mid-1970s there was also a significant increase of global temperature and changes to a number of other quantities that have been associated with changes in external forcings, particularly increases of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels. Analysis of observations, an unforced control run from a global coupled climate model, and twentieth-century simulations with changes in external forcings show that the observed 1970s climate shift had a contribution from changes in external forcing superimposed on what was likely an inherent decadal fluctuation of the Pacific climate system. Thus, this inherent decadal variability associated with the IPO delayed until the 1970s what likely would have been a forced climate shift in the 1960s from a negative to positive phase of the IPO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physical processes that are responsible for the asymmetric transition processes between El Niño and La Niña events are investigated by using observational data and physical models to examine the nonlinear atmospheric response to SST. The air–sea coupled system of ENSO is able to remain in a weak, cold event for up to 2 yr, while the system of a relatively warm event turns into a cold phase. Through analysis of the oceanic observational data, it is found that there is a strong difference in thermocline variations in relation to surface zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific (EP) during the mature-to-decaying phase of ENSO. The atmospheric response for the warm phase of ENSO causes a rapid reduction of the EP westerlies in boreal winter, which play a role in hastening the following ENSO transition through the generation of upwelling oceanic Kelvin waves. However, the anomalous EP easterlies in the cold phase persist to the subsequent spring, which tends to counteract the turnabout from the cold to warm phase of ENSO. A suite of idealized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are performed by imposing two different ENSO-related SST anomalies, which have equal amplitudes but opposite signs. The nonlinear climate response in the AGCM is found at the mature-to-decaying phase of ENSO that closely resembles the observations, including a zonal and meridional shift in the equatorial positions of the atmospheric wind. By using a simple ocean model, it is determined that the asymmetric responses of the equatorial zonal wind result in different recovery times of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific. Thus, the differences in transition processes between the warm and cold ENSO event are fundamentally due to the nonlinear atmospheric response to SST, which originates from the distribution of climatological SST and its seasonal changes. By including the asymmetric wind responses the intermediate air–sea coupled model herein demonstrates that the essential elements of the redevelopment of La Niña arise from the nonlinear atmospheric response to SST anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Output of an eddy-resolving OGCM simulation is used to investigate mechanisms for interannual-to-decadal variability in the Oyashio and its influence on the subarctic frontal zone in the western North Pacific. Lag correlation analysis reveals that positive anomalies both in basin-scale wind stress curl and in local Ekman pumping can intensify the southward Oyashio almost simultaneously via barotropic and baroclinic Rossby wave propagations, respectively. The Oyashio strength can also be influenced by anomalous Ekman pumping that is exerted in the western portion of the basin through the baroclinic wave propagation with the lag of 3 yr, which appears to arise from a periodicity in the wind field. The intensification of the Oyashio is accompanied by negative anomalies both in the sea surface temperature and height off of Hokkaido Island of Japan and is followed by their eastward development along the southern branch of the Oyashio Extension and associated subarctic frontal zone in association with a southward displacement of their axes. These changes are associated with cool sea surface temperature anomalies and low potential vorticity anomalies at the thermocline level in the frontal zone. The surface cooling, thus induced in the frontal zone by those oceanic processes, accompanies anomalous downward surface heat fluxes, indicative of ocean-to-atmosphere feedback forcing associated with the Oyashio variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous modeling studies have shown that soil moisture anomalies in later spring have a significant effect on the summer rainfall anomalies in North America. On the other hand, the role of soil moisture in forming monsoonal precipitation in East Asia has not been identified. This study attempts to clarify the importance of soil moisture on the summer rainfall in late spring in East Asia. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is utilized for 3-month (June–August) simulations in 1998 (above-normal precipitation year) and 1997 (below-normal precipitation year). Initial and boundary conditions are derived from the NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis. The control run uses the initial soil moisture from the reanalysis, whereas it is set as a saturation and wilting point for “wet” and “dry” experiments, respectively. The impact of soil moisture anomalies on the simulated summer rainfall in East Asia is not significant. The change in precipitation between the wet and dry experiments is about 10%. A conflict between the local feedback of soil moisture and a change in large-scale circulations associated with the summertime monsoonal circulation in East Asia can be attributed as a reason for this anomaly. It is found that enhanced (suppressed) evaporation from the soil to the atmosphere in wet (dry) initial soil moisture reduces (increases) the land–sea contrast between East Asia and the Pacific Ocean, leading to a weakened sensitivity of the monsoonal circulations to the initial soil moisture. It can be concluded that the impact of the initial soil moisture is significant on the dynamic circulation in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conditions under which supercooled liquid water gradually gives way to ice in the mixed-phase regions of clouds are still poorly understood and may be an important source of cloud feedback uncertainty in general circulation model projections of long-term climate change. Two winters of cloud phase discrimination, cloud-top temperature, sea surface temperature, and precipitation from several satellite datasets (the NASA Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) for the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins are analyzed to better understand these processes. Reanalysis surface pressures and vertical velocities are used in combination with a synoptic storm-tracking algorithm to define storm tracks, create composite storm dynamical and cloud patterns, and examine changes in storm characteristics over their life cycles. Characteristically different storm cloud patterns exist in the Atlantic and Pacific and on the west and east sides of each ocean basin. This appears to be related to the different spatial patterns of sea surface temperature in the two ocean basins. Glaciation occurs at very warm temperatures in the high, thick, heavily precipitating clouds typical of frontal ascent regions, except where vertical velocities are strongest, similar to previous field experiments. Outside frontal regions, however, where clouds are shallower, supercooled water exists at lower cloud-top temperatures. This analysis is the first large-scale assessment of cloud phase and its relation to dynamics on climatologically representative time scales. It provides a potentially powerful benchmark for the design and evaluation of mixed-phase process parameterizations in general circulation models and suggests that assumptions made in some existing models may negatively bias their cloud feedback estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While transient climate change experiments with coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models undoubtedly represent the most comprehensive tool for studying the climate response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), less computationally expensive time-slice experiments with atmospheric GCMs are still useful to test the robustness of the projected climate change. In the present study, three sets of time-slice experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) are compared to a reference climate scenario obtained with the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Climate Model (CCM). The main objective is to assess the sensitivity of the monsoon response to the magnitude or pattern of SST anomalies in two regions where such anomalies are highly model dependent, namely, the circumpolar Southern Ocean and the tropical Pacific Ocean. On the one hand, it is shown that the regional climate anomalies predicted by the CCM can be reproduced at least qualitatively by a pair of time-slice experiments in which the present-day SST biases of the CCM are removed. On the other hand, the results indicate that the Indian monsoon response to increasing amounts of GHG is sensitive to regional uncertainties in the prescribed SST warming. Increasing the sea surface warming in the southern high latitudes to compensate for the weak sea ice feedback simulated by the CCM around the Antarctic has a significant influence on the regional climate change simulated over India, through a perturbation of the regional Hadley circulation. Prescribing zonal mean rather than El Niño–like SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific has an even stronger impact on the monsoon response, through a modification of the Walker circulation. These results suggest that both deficiencies in simulating present-day climate (even at high latitudes) and uncertainties in the SST patterns caused by enhanced GHG concentrations (especially in the tropical Pacific) are major obstacles for predicting climate change at the regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability of subtropical cell (STC) overturning in the upper Pacific Ocean is examined in a coupled climate model in light of large observed changes in STC transport. In a 1000-yr control run, modeled STC variations are smaller than observed, but correlate in a similar way with low-frequency ENSO-like variability. In model runs that include anthropogenically forced climate change, STC pycnocline transports decrease progressively under the influence of global warming, attaining reductions of 8% by 2000 and 46% by 2100. Although the former reduction is insufficient to fully account for the apparent observed decline in STC transport over recent decades, it does suggest that global warming may have contributed to the observed changes. Analysis of coupled model results shows that STC transports play a significant role in modulating tropical Pacific Ocean heat content, and that such changes are dominated by anomalous currents advecting mean temperature, rather than by advection of temperature anomalies by mean currents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pacific decadal variability is studied in a series of coupled global ocean-atmosphere simulations aided by two "modeling surgery" strategies: partial coupling (PC) and partial blocking (PB). The PC experiments retain full ocean-atmosphere coupling in selected regions, but constrain ocean-atmosphere coupling elsewhere by prescribing the model climatological SST to force the atmospheric component of the coupled system. In PB experiments, sponge walls are inserted into the ocean component of the coupled model at specified latitudinal bands to block the extratropical-tropical oceanic teleconnection. Both modeling and observational studies suggest that Pacific decadal variability is composed of two distinct modes: a decadal to bidecadal tropical Pacific mode (TPM) and a multidecadal North Pacific mode (NPM). The PC and PB experiments showed that the tropical Pacific mode originates predominantly from local coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction within the tropical Pacific. Extratropical-tropical teleconnections, although not a necessary precondition for the genesis of the tropical decadal variability, can enhance SST variations in the Tropics. The decadal memory in the Tropics seems to be associated with tropical higher baroclinic modes. The North Pacific mode originates from local atmospheric stochastic processes and coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. Atmospheric stochastic forcing can generate a weaker NPM-like pattern in both the atmosphere and ocean, but with no preferred timescales. In contrast, coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback can enhance the variability substantially and generate a basin-scale multidecadal mode in the North Pacific. The multidecadal memory in the midlatitudes seems to be associated with the delayed response of the subtropical/subpolar gyre to wind stress variation in the central North Pacific and the slow growing/decaying of SST anomalies that propagate eastward in the Kuroshio Extension region. Oceanic dynamics, particularly the advection... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annual reestablishment of the equatorial cold tongue (ECT) in the Pacific is signified by a remarkably rapid reversal of the warming trend from March to May. The processes responsible for this dramatic turnabout are investigated using the outputs generated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, which simulates realistic tropical Pacific climate. A new diagnostic equation is put forward for a budget study of the temperature tendency in a mixed layer (ML) with a variable depth. The budget study reveals that the rapid boreal spring cooling in the ML of the ECT (4°S–2°N, 120°–90°W) is primarily attributed to turbulent entrainment (54%), surface evaporation (21%), and meridional advection (14%). The spring shallowness of the ML is also a significant "implicit" contributor. Annually, the ML depth in the ECT varies nearly 180° out of phase with the SST while in phase with the ML heat content. The annual variation of the ML depth is determined by competing effects of the Ekman transport and turbulent entrainment. From March to July, the increase of the meridional wind component dominates that of the zonal component; thereby, the effect of entrainment surpasses that of upwelling, leading to mixed layer deepening. The mechanism governing the annual variation of the ML heat content is essentially the same as those governing the ML depth variation. The results suggest that accurate modeling of the ML turbulent mixing holds the key to realistic simulation of the annual cycle of the ECT. In contrast, beneath the ITCZ (8°–12°N, 100°–120°W), the rapid spring warming is attributable to increased surface heat flux, while entrainment and thermal advection play minor roles. From February to May, the downward shortwave radiation and the surface latent heat fluxes, along with concurrent equatorial cooling, result in a northward progression of the annual warming and promote an active ITCZ-ECT interaction (including ev... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climatological large-scale patterns of diurnal and semidiurnal near-surface wind variations over the tropical Pacific Ocean are documented using 3 yr of hourly measurements from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean moored buoy array. Semidiurnal variations account for 68% of the mean daily variance of the zonal wind component, while diurnal variations account for 82% of the mean daily variance of the meridional wind component. The spatially uniform amplitude (0.15 m s[sup-1]) and phase (0300 LT) of the semidiurnal zonal wind variations are shown to be consistent with atmospheric thermal tidal theory. The diurnal meridional wind variations on either side of the equator are approximately out of phase. This pattern results in a diurnal variation of wind divergence along the equator, with maximum divergence in the early morning (˜0800 LT). The average amplitude of the diurnal cycle in zonal mean divergence is 0.45 X 10[sup-6] s[sup-1], which corresponds to a day-night change of 45% relative to the daily mean. The relative day-night changes in near-surface equatorial wind divergence are larger in the western Pacific (78%) than in the eastern Pacific (31%) due mainly to differences in the daily mean divergence. The diurnal amplitude of equatorial wind divergence changes seasonally and interannually in proportion to the strength of the mean divergence. It is suggested that diurnal heating of the sea surface may contribute to the zonally symmetric diurnal cycle of equatorial wind divergence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]