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Based on results from climate model simulations, many researchers have suggested that because of global warming, the sea surface temperature (SST) will likely increase, which will then lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs). This paper reports results of a study of the relationship between SST and observed typhoon activity (which is used as a proxy for the intensity of TCs averaged over a season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the past 40 yr. The average typhoon activity over a season is found to have no significant relationship with SST in the WNP but increases when the SST over the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is above normal. The mean annual typhoon activity is generally higher (lower) during an El Niño (La Niña) year. Such interannual variations of typhoon activity appear to be largely constrained by the large-scale atmospheric factors that are closely related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. These large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors include low-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, and moist static energy. Such results are shown to be physically consistent with one another and with those from previous studies on the interannual variations of TC activity. The results emphasize the danger of drawing conclusions about future TC intensity based on current climate model simulations that are not designed to make such predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat and temperature budget changes in a 1/3° model of the North Pacific driven by an idealized Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) atmospheric forcing are diagnosed to determine the roles of atmospheric heat flux and ocean dynamics in upper-ocean heat content and mixed layer temperature (MLT) changes. Changes in MLT and heat content during the transition between negative and positive PDOs are driven primarily by atmospheric heat fluxes, with contributions from ageostrophic advection and entrainment. Once the new PDO state is established, atmospheric heat flux in the central North Pacific works to mitigate the MLT change while vertical entrainment and ageostrophic advection act to enhance it. Upper-ocean heat content is affected in a similar matter, except that vertical processes are not important in the heat budget balance. At the same time, changes in wind stress curl cause the subtropical gyre to spin up and the subpolar gyre boundary to migrate southward. These circulation changes cause a large increase in the geostrophic advective heat flux in the Kuroshio region. This increase results in more heat flux to the atmosphere, demonstrating an active role for ocean dynamics in the upper-ocean heat budget. Eddy heat flux divergence along the Kuroshio Extension doubles after the transition, due to stronger eddy activity related to increased Kuroshio transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using long-term datasets of sea surface temperature (SST), core-layer temperature (CLT) of the North Pacific subtropical mode water (NPSTMW), and the North Pacific index, an impact of remote reemergence of NPSTMW on winter SST variation in the central North Pacific is quantitatively investigated. A running correlation analysis between CLT and winter SST in the remote reemergence area clearly shows that an occurrence of remote reemergence of NPSTMW strongly depends on the specific time period: occurrence period and nonoccurrence period. It is found that background conditions, such as formation rate of NPSTMW, winter mixed layer depth, ocean heat content, and buoyancy flux, play a crucial role in the period-dependent remote reemergence. In the occurrence (nonoccurrence) periods, since a large positive (negative) upper-ocean heat content anomaly is located around the central North Pacific, a deeper (shallower) winter mixed layer is formed in both the formation area and the reemergence area of NPSTMW. Therefore, a large (small) amount of NPSTMW is formed, and consequently the advective part of NPSTMW is preserved (dissipated) from (because of) a vigorous mixing due to salt-finger-type convection. In addition, larger (less) oceanic buoyancy loss contributes to an occurrence of reemergence. These are favorable (unfavorable) conditions for persistence of thermal anomalies and occurrence of reemergence in the central North Pacific. Using a multiple regression analysis, it is shown that remote reemergence gives a significant impact to an equivalent degree to the surface thermal forcing related with the Aleutian low activity on winter SST variation during the occurrence periods, while there is no significant contribution to SST variation during the nonoccurrence periods. It is also shown that the period-dependent reemergence closely connects with the Aleutian low activity with a lag of 6 to 8 yr, that is, the spinup/spindown of the subtropical gyre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]