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The Euphrates Plain (EP) experiences large interannual variability in vegetation cover, especially in areas of marginal rain-fed agriculture. Vegetation in this region is primarily limited by available soil moisture, as determined by winter precipitation, spring precipitation, and air temperature. Satellite analyses indicate that the springtime normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is negatively correlated with surface albedo, and that interannual variability in albedo in the EP produces an estimated forcing on the radiation balance that peaks at 16.0 W m-2 in May. Simulations with a regional climate model indicate that surface energy fluxes during a drought year (1999) differed substantially from those during a year with normal precipitation (2003). These differences were geographically specific, with the EP exhibiting increased albedo and decreased sensible heat flux while the neighboring Zagros Plateau region showed no albedo effect, a large increase in sensible heat flux, and an offsetting reduction in latent heat flux. In both the EP and the Zagros there was a potential for positive feedbacks on temperature and drought in late spring, though the most likely feedback mechanisms differed between the two regions: in the EP surface brightening leads to cooling and reduced turbulent heat flux, while in the Zagros region reduced latent heat flux leads to warming and a deepening of the planetary boundary layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Middle East and southwest Asia are a region that is water stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts. Large-scale climate variability, particularly La Niña, appears to play an important role in regionwide droughts, including the two most severe of the last 50 years-1999-2001 and 2007/08-with implications for drought forecasting. Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm-track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism. In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean region is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt. Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including dynamics of the regional storm track, the relative importance of the range of dynamical mechanisms related to drought, the regional coherence of drought, the relationship between synoptic-scale mechanisms and drought, the predictability of vegetation and crop yields, the stability of remote influences, data uncertainty, and the role of temperature. Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]