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Dynamical mechanisms for the summer Eurasian circulation trend pattern are investigated by analyzing reanalysis data and conducting numerical model simulations. The daily circulations that resemble the Eurasian circulation trend pattern are identified and categorized into two groups based on surface warming signal over central and eastern Europe. In the group with large warm anomaly, the upper-level circulation takes on a wave packet form over Eurasia, and there are enhanced latent heating anomalies centered over the North Sea and suppressed latent heating anomalies over the Caspian Sea. The numerical model calculations indicate that these latent heating anomalies can excite an upper-level circulation response that resembles the Eurasian circulation trend pattern. Additional analysis indicates that trends of these two latent heating centers contribute to the long-term circulation trend. In the weak warm anomaly group, the circulation pattern takes on a circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern, and there is no heating signal that reinforces the circulation. These results indicate that not all CGT-like patterns excite temperature anomalies that are persistent and in phase with the trend pattern, and that quasi-stationary forcings, such as the latent heating anomalies, play an important role in driving the boreal summer circulation anomaly that accompanies the strong and persistent surface temperature signal.

This study investigates the stratosphere-troposphere coupling associated with the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern in boreal winter. The results indicate that the SCA impacts stratospheric circulation but that its positive and negative phases have different effects. The positive phase of the SCA (SCA+) pattern is restricted to the troposphere, but the negative phase (SCA−) extends to the upper stratosphere. The asymmetry between phases is also visible in the lead-lag evolution of the stratosphere and troposphere. Prominent stratospheric anomalies are found to be intensified following SCA+ events, but prior to SCA− events. Further analysis reveals that the responses are associated with upward propagation of planetary waves, especially wavenumber 1 which is asymmetric between SCA phases. The wave amplitudes in the stratosphere, originating from the troposphere, are enhanced after the SCA+ events and before the SCA− events. Furthermore, the anomalous planetary wave activity can be understood through its interference with climatological stationary waves. Constructive wave interference is accompanied by clear upward propagation in the SCA+ events, while destructive interference suppresses stratospheric waves in the SCA− events. Our results also reveal that the SCA+ events are more likely to be followed by sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, because of the deceleration of stratospheric westerlies following the SCA+ events.

Reliable simulations of historical and future climate are critical to assessing ecological and hydrological responses over the Third Pole (TP). In this study, we evaluate the historical and future temperature and precipitation simulations of 18 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in southeastern TP (SETP) and the upstream of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya (UAS) regions, two typical TP subregions dominated by the Indian summer monsoon system and westerlies, respectively. Comparison against station observations suggests that CMIP6 models generally capture the intra-annual variability and spatial pattern of historical climate over both subregions. However, the wetting and cold biases observed in CMIP5 still persist in CMIP6; annual temperature is underestimated by most models and annual precipitation is overestimated by all models. Multi-model average cold biases in SETP and UAS are 1.18°C and 0.32°C, respectively, and wet biases in SETP and UAS are 119% and 46%, respectively. We further analyze climate projections under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Both SETP and UAS subregions are projected to experience significant warming in 2015–2100, with warming trends 34%–42% and 40%–50% higher than the global trend, respectively. Model projections suggest that the warming trend will slow down under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 but further intensify under SSP5-8.5 in 2050–2100. Monsoon-dominated SETP is projected to experience a significant wetting trend stronger than UAS over the entire future period, especially in summer (cf. winter in westerlies-dominated UAS). Concurrently, a significant drying trend in summer is found in UAS during 2050–2100 under SSP5-8.5, suggesting the intensified uneven distributions of seasonal precipitation based on projections.

Persistent hot–dry or cold–wet summer weather can have significant impacts on agriculture, health, and the environment. For northwestern Europe, these weather regimes are typically linked to, respectively, blocked or zonal jet stream states. The fundamental dynamics underlying these circulation states are still poorly understood. Edward Lorenz postulated that summer circulation may be either fully or almost intransitive, implying that part of the phase space (capturing circulation variability) cannot be reached within one specific summer. If true, this would have major implications for the predictability of summer weather and our understanding of the drivers of interannual variability of summer weather. Here, we test the two Lorenz hypotheses (i.e., fully or almost intransitive) for European summer circulation, capitalizing on a newly available very large ensemble (2000 years) of present-day climate data in the fully coupled global climate model EC-Earth. Using self-organizing maps, we quantify the phase space of summer circulation and the trajectories through phase space in unprecedented detail. We show that, based on Markov assumptions, the summer circulation is strongly dependent on its initial state in early summer with the atmospheric memory ranging from 28 days up to ~45 days. The memory is particularly long if the initial state is either a blocked or a zonal flow state. Furthermore, we identify two groups of summers that are characterized by distinctly different trajectories through phase space, and that prefer either a blocked or zonal circulation state, respectively. These results suggest that intransitivity is indeed a fundamental property of the atmosphere and an important driver of interannual variability.

This study examines the role of the latent heating in exciting the upper-level circulation anomaly, which destructively interferes with the climatological stationary wave in the Western Hemisphere during boreal summer. This destructive interference pattern closely resembles the circulation trend that is known to be responsible for surface heat extreme trends. To investigate the mechanism behind this circulation anomaly, daily stationary–transient wave interference and related meteorological variables are analyzed using reanalysis data for the period of 1979–2017. Numerical model simulations forced by reanalysis heating anomalies indicate that the destructive interference pattern is most effectively excited by latent heating anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean and eastern Canada. The North Pacific heating anomaly drives circulation anomalies that not only resemble the destructive interference pattern, but also transport moisture into eastern Canada. The resulting latent heating over eastern Canada drives circulation that further reinforces the destructive interference pattern, which includes a prominent high pressure system over Greenland. Tropical heating also plays a role in driving the destructive interference pattern. On intraseasonal time scales, the destructive interference pattern is preceded by suppressed Indo–western Pacific heating and enhanced North American monsoon heating. On decadal time scales, both heating centers have strengthened, but the trend of the North American monsoon heating was greater than that of the Indo–western Pacific heating. These uneven heating trends help to explain the resemblance between the destructive interference pattern and the circulation trend over the Western Hemisphere.

Dynamics of the East Asian spring rainband are investigated with a reanalysis dataset and station observations. Here, it is revealed that the rainband is anchored by external forcings. The midtropospheric jet core stays quasi-stationary around Japan. It has two branches in its entry region, which originate from the south and north flanks of the Tibetan Plateau and then run northeastward and southeastward, respectively. The southern branch advects warm air from the Tibetan–Hengduan Plateau northeastward, forming a rainband over southern China through causing adiabatic ascent motion and triggering diabatic feedback. The rainband is much stronger in spring than in autumn due to the stronger diabatic heating over the Tibetan–Hengduan Plateau, a more southward-displaced midtropospheric jet, and the resulting stronger warm advection over southern China. The northern jet branch forms a zonally elongated cold advection belt, which reaches a maximum around northern China, and then weakens and extends eastward to east of Japan. The westerly jet also steers strong disturbance activities roughly collocated with the cold advection belt via baroclinic instability. The high disturbance activities belt causes large cumulative warm advection (CWA) through drastically increasing extremely warm advection days on its eastern and south flanks, where weak cold advection prevails. CWA is more essential for monthly/seasonally rainfall than conventionally used time-average temperature advection because it is shown that strengthened warm advection can increase rainfall through positive diabatic feedback, while cold advection cannot cause negative rainfall. Thus, the rainband is collocated with the large CWA belt instead of the warm advection south of it. This rainband is jointed to the rainband over southern China, forming the long southwest–northeast-oriented East Asian spring rainband. Increasing moisture slightly displaces the rainband southeastward.

Recent enhanced warming and sea ice depletion in the Arctic have been put forward as potential drivers of severe weather in the midlatitudes. Evidence of a link between Arctic warming and midlatitude atmospheric circulation is growing, but the role of Arctic processes relative to other drivers remains unknown. Arctic–midlatitude connections in the North Atlantic region are particularly complex but important due to the frequent occurrence of severe winters in recent decades. Here, dynamic Bayesian networks with hidden variables are introduced to the field to assess their suitability for teleconnection analyses. Climate networks are constructed to analyze North Atlantic circulation variability at 5-day to monthly time scales during the winter months of the years 1981–2018. The inclusion of a number of Arctic, midlatitude, and tropical variables allows for an investigation into the relative role of Arctic influence compared to internal atmospheric variability and other remote drivers. A robust covariability between regions of amplified Arctic warming and two definitions of midlatitude circulation is found to occur entirely within winter at submonthly time scales. Hidden variables incorporated in networks represent two distinct modes of stratospheric polar vortex variability, capturing a periodic shift between average conditions and slower anomalous flow. The influence of the Barents–Kara Seas region on the North Atlantic Oscillation is found to be the strongest link at 5- and 10-day averages, while the stratospheric polar vortex strongly influences jet variability on monthly time scales.

Historical simulations from 14 models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated for their ability to reproduce observed precipitation in the northeastern United States and its associated circulation, with particular emphasis on extreme (top 1%) precipitation. The models are compared to observations in terms of the spatial variations of extreme precipitation, seasonal cycles of precipitation and extreme precipitation frequency and intensity, and extreme precipitation circulation regimes. The circulation regimes are identified using k-means clustering of 500-hPa geopotential heights on extreme precipitation days, in both observations and in the models. While all models capture an observed northwest-to-southeast gradient of precipitation intensity (reflected in the top 1% threshold), there are substantial differences from observations in the magnitude of the gradient. These differences tend to be more substantial for lower-resolution models. However, regardless of resolution, and despite a bias toward too-frequent precipitation, many of the models capture the seasonality of observed daily precipitation intensity, and the approximate magnitude and seasonality of observed extreme precipitation intensity. Many of the simulated extreme precipitation circulation patterns are visually similar to the set of observed patterns. However, the location and magnitude of specific troughs and ridges within the patterns, as well as the seasonality of the patterns, may differ substantially from the observed corresponding patterns. A series of metrics is developed based on the observed regional characteristics to facilitate comparison between models.

Sixteen historical simulations (1950–2014) from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are compared to Northeast U.S. observed precipitation and extreme precipitation–related synoptic circulation. A set of metrics based on the regional climate is used to assess how realistically the models simulate the observed distribution and seasonality of extreme precipitation, as well as the synoptic patterns associated with extreme precipitation. These patterns are determined byk-means typing of 500-hPa geopotential heights on extreme precipitation days (top 1% of days with precipitation). The metrics are formulated to evaluate the models’ extreme precipitation spatial variations, seasonal frequency, and intensity; and for circulation, the fit to observed patterns, pattern seasonality, and pattern location of extreme precipitation. Based on the metrics, the models vary considerably in their ability to simulate different aspects of regional precipitation, and a realistic simulation of the seasonality and distribution of precipitation does not necessarily correspond to a realistic simulation of the circulation patterns (reflecting the underlying dynamics of the precipitation), and vice versa. This highlights the importance of assessing both precipitation and its associated circulation. While the models vary in their ability to reproduce observed results, in general the higher-resolution models score higher in terms of the metrics. Most models produce more frequent precipitation than that for observations, but capture the seasonality of precipitation intensity well, and capture at least several of the key characteristics of extreme precipitation–related circulation. These results do not appear to reflect a substantial improvement over a similar analysis of selected CMIP5 models.

The globally integrated subseasonal variability associated with the two main atmospheric circulation regimes, the balanced (or Rossby) and unbalanced (or inertia–gravity) regimes, is evaluated for the four reanalysis datasets: ERA-Interim, JRA-55, MERRA, and ERA5. The results quantify amplitudes and trends in midlatitude traveling and quasi-stationary Rossby wave patterns as well as in the equatorial wave activity across scales. A statistically significant reduction of subseasonal variability is found in Rossby waves with zonal wavenumber k = 6 along with an increase in variability in wavenumbers k = 3–5 in the summer seasons of both hemispheres. The four reanalyses also agree regarding increased variability in the large-scale Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby–gravity waves, and westward-propagating inertio-gravity waves with the lowest meridional mode. The amplitude and sign of trends in inertia–gravity modes with smaller zonal scales and greater meridional modes differ between the ERA-Interim and JRA-55 datasets on the one hand and the ERA5 and MERRA data on the other. An increased variability in the ERA-Interim and JRA-55 accounts for positive trends in their total subseasonal variability.

In winter 2018/19, southeastern coastal China experienced extreme warm temperatures that were due to a weak East Asian winter monsoon. On the basis of observations from 10 meteorological stations and reanalysis data, the large-scale circulation patterns associated with this extreme warm winter and the possible driving mechanism of its related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are investigated in this study. During this winter, many places in this region reached their highest winter mean temperature record and had more extreme warm days and fewer extreme cold days relative to climatology. According to the circulation patterns during winter 2018/19, several large-scale circulation conditions associated mainly with the weak East Asian winter monsoon are identified: the eastward shift of the Siberian high and a shallower East Asian trough, which is related to the low blocking frequency over the Aleutian region, are both unfavorable for cold-air intrusion southward. Meanwhile, strong low-level southerly wind anomalies over southeastern China are related mainly to the 2018/19 El Niño event. Furthermore, the possible role of SST anomalies over the North Atlantic and tropical western Pacific Oceans is examined by using an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting that both the “tripole pattern” of North Atlantic SST and tropical western Pacific SST anomalies in winter 2018/19 played a role in influencing the East Asian trough. The combined effect of all of these factors seems to be responsible for this extreme warm winter over southeastern coastal China.

In this study, long-term structural changes in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and associated precipitation–radiation–circulation feedback processes are examined using multiple sources of reanalysis data for temperature, winds, moisture, and observed precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) during 1980–2014. Consistent with CMIP5 climate model projections of the “deep tropical squeeze” under greenhouse warming, this period witnessed a warming and wetting (increased specific humidity) global trend, characterized by a narrowing of the ITCZ core with increased precipitation, coupled to widespread tropospheric drying (deficient relative humidity), increased OLR in the subtropics and midlatitudes, a widening of the descending branches of the Hadley circulation, and a poleward shift of the jet streams in both hemispheres. The widespread tropospheric drying stems from 1) a faster rate of increased saturated water vapor with warming, relative to the increase in ambient moisture due to convective and large-scale transport, and 2) enhanced anomalous subsidence, and low-level moisture divergence in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The long-term trend in enhanced precipitation (latent heating) in the ITCZ core region is strongly coupled to increasing OLR (radiative cooling to space) in the expanding dry zones, particularly over land regions in the subtropics and midlatitudes, arguably as a necessary condition for global thermodynamic energy balance. Analyses of the trend patterns in vertical profiles of p velocity, temperature, and relative humidity with respect to ITCZ precipitation rate and OLR reveal that the contrast between the wet and dry regions in the troposphere has been increasing globally, with the ITCZ core getting wetter and contracting, while the marginal convective and dry zones are getting drier and expanding.

Previous studies showed that global cloud-radiative changes contribute half or more to the midlatitude atmospheric circulation response to global warming. Here, we investigate the relative importance of tropical, midlatitude, and polar cloud-radiative changes for the annual-mean, wintertime, and summertime circulation response across regions in AMIP-like simulations. To this end, we study global warming simulations from the ICON model run with the cloud-locking method and prescribed sea surface temperatures, which isolate the impact of changes in atmospheric cloud-radiative heating. Tropical cloud changes dominate the global cloud impact on the 850 hPa zonal wind, jet strength, and storm track responses across most seasons and regions. For the jet shift, a more diverse picture is found. In the annual mean and DJF, tropical and midlatitude cloud changes contribute substantially to the poleward jet shift in all regions. The poleward jet shift is further supported by polar cloud changes across the Northern Hemisphere but not in the Southern Hemisphere. In JJA, the impact of regional cloud changes on the jet position is small, consistent with an overall small jet shift during this season. The jet shift can be largely understood via the anomalous atmospheric cloud-radiative heating in the tropical and midlatitude upper troposphere. The circulation changes are broadly consistent with the influence of cloud-radiative changes on upper-tropospheric baroclinicity and thus the mean potential energy available for conversion into eddy kinetic energy. Our results help to explain the jet response to global warming and highlight the importance of tropical and midlatitude cloud-radiative changes for this response.

The Southern Ocean overturning circulation is driven by winds, heat fluxes, and freshwater sources. Among these sources of freshwater, Antarctic sea ice formation and melting play the dominant role. Even though ice-shelf melt is relatively small in magnitude, it is located close to regions of convection, where it may influence dense water formation. Here, we explore the impacts of ice-shelf melting on Southern Ocean water-mass transformation (WMT) using simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) both with and without the explicit representation of melt fluxes from beneath Antarctic ice shelves. We find that ice-shelf melting enhances transformation of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water, converting it to lower density values. While the overall differences in Southern Ocean WMT between the two simulations are moderate, freshwater fluxes produced by ice-shelf melting have a further, indirect impact on the Southern Ocean overturning circulation through their interaction with sea ice formation and melting, which also cause considerable upwelling. We further find that surface freshening and cooling by ice-shelf melting cause increased Antarctic sea ice production and stronger density stratification near the Antarctic coast. In addition, ice-shelf melting causes decreasing air temperature, which may be directly related to sea ice expansion. The increased stratification reduces vertical heat transport from the deeper ocean. Although the addition of ice-shelf melting processes leads to no significant changes in Southern Ocean WMT, the simulations and analysis conducted here point to a relationship between increased Antarctic ice-shelf melting and the increased role of sea ice in Southern Ocean overturning.

Interannual variabilities of sea level and upper-ocean gyre circulation of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (WTPO) have been predominantly attributed to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results of the present study put forward important modulation effects by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode. The observed sea level in the WTPO shows significant instantaneous and lagged correlations (around −0.60 and 0.40, respectively) with the IOD mode index (DMI). A composite of 14 “independent” IOD events for 1958–2017 shows negative sea level anomalies (SLAs) of 4–7 cm in the WTPO during positive IOD events and positive SLAs of 6–8 cm in the following year that are opposite in sign to the El Niño effect. The IOD impacts are reproduced by large-ensemble simulations of a climate model that generate respectively 430 and 519 positive and negative independent IOD events. A positive IOD induces westerly winds over the western and central tropical Pacific and causes negative SLAs through Ekman upwelling, and it facilitates the establishment of a La Niña condition in the following year that involves enhanced Pacific trade winds and causes positive SLAs in the WTPO. Ocean model experiments confirm that the IOD affects the WTPO sea level mainly through modulating the tropical Pacific winds. Variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) induced by IOD winds has a relatively weak effect on the WTPO. The IOD’s impacts on the major upper-ocean currents are also considerable, causing anomalies of 1–4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) in the South Equatorial Current (SEC) and North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) volume transports.

The eastward propagating Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events exhibit various speeds ranging from 1 to 9 m s−1, but what controls the propagation speed remains elusive. This study attempts to address this issue. It reveals that the Kelvin wave response (KWR) induced by the MJO convection is a major circulation factor controlling the observed propagation speed of the MJO, with a stronger KWR corresponding to faster eastward propagation. A stronger KWR can accelerate the MJO eastward propagation by enhancing the low-level premoistening and preconditioning to the east of the MJO deep convection. The strength of the KWR is affected by the background sea surface temperature (SST). When the equatorial central Pacific SST warms, the zonal scale of the Indo-Pacific warm pool expands, which increases the zonal scale of the MJO, favoring enhancing the KWR. This effect of warm-pool zonal scale has been verified by idealized experiments using a theoretical model. The findings here shed light on the propagation mechanism of the MJO and provide a set of potential predictors for forecasting the MJO propagation.

Using various observations, reanalysis datasets, and a general circulation model (CESM-WACCM4), the relationship between the Arctic total column ozone (TCO) and the tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the western North Pacific (30°–45°N, 130°E–170°W) was investigated. We find that anomalies in the circulation and SSTs over the western North Pacific in June are closely related to anomalies in the Arctic TCO in March; that is, when the Arctic TCO in March decreases, the anomalous tropospheric cyclone and negative SST anomalies (SSTAs) will occur over the western North Pacific in June. Further analysis indicates that the decreased Arctic TCO in March tends to result in positive Victoria mode (VM)-like SSTAs over the North Pacific in April, which persist and develop an anomalous cyclone over the eastern North Pacific in May via atmosphere–ocean coupling. This anomalous cyclone over the eastern North Pacific subsequently induces an anomalous cyclone over the western North Pacific in June via westward-propagating Rossby waves in the lower troposphere. Furthermore, the negative SSTAs over the western North Pacific are enhanced by the anomalous northerly wind related to the anomalous cyclone in June. The effects of increased Arctic TCO in March on the tropospheric circulation and SSTs are almost opposite to those of decreased Arctic TCO. These results are also supported by our numerical simulations. Moreover, 10%–20% of the anomalies in the tropospheric circulation and SSTs over the western North Pacific in June are affected by the anomalies in the Arctic TCO in March.

El Niño stimulates an anomalous cyclone over the North Pacific during its developing phase. Using 30 CGCMs and 11 AGCMs from CMIP5, we find a weakly strengthened anomalous North Pacific cyclone (NPC) in a warmer climate in CGCMs, and intermodel uncertainty exists. A similar change of the anomalous NPC is found in AGCMs with increased mean state SST but with a stronger amplitude of enhancement. Based on a simple Gill model, the diabatic heating anomaly, mean state static stability, and meridional gradient of relative vorticity are identified to be responsible for the change of the anomalous NPC. Analyses of the CMIP5 models suggest that the change of the anomalous NPC is largely determined by the competition between the enhanced diabatic heating anomaly and the enhanced mean state static stability. The amplitude of enhancement of the anomalous NPC is strongly modulated by the change of precipitation anomaly over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, which depends on the changes of mean state SST and the El Niño–related SST anomaly. Compared with a uniform warming, an El Niño–like mean state SST warming favors a much stronger enhancement of the anomalous NPC, by enhancing the mean state precipitation and latent heating anomaly associated with the precipitation anomaly over the equatorial Pacific. However, the air–sea coupling acts to weaken the SST anomaly associated with El Niño in the CGCMs, which further reduces the enhancement of the anomalous NPC.

Performance in simulating atmospheric rivers (ARs) over western North America based on AR frequency and landfall latitude is evaluated for 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project among which the CanESM2 model performs well. ARs are classified into southern, northern, and middle types using self-organizing maps in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and CanESM2. The southern type is associated with the development and eastward movement of anomalous lower pressure over the subtropical eastern Pacific, while the northern type is linked with the eastward movement of anomalous cyclonic circulation stimulated by warm sea surface temperatures over the subtropical western Pacific. The middle type is connected with the negative phase of North Pacific Oscillation–west Pacific teleconnection pattern. CanESM2 is further used to investigate projected AR changes at the end of the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario. AR definitions usually reference fixed integrated water vapor or integrated water vapor transport thresholds. AR changes under such definitions reflect both thermodynamic and dynamic influences. We therefore also use a modified AR definition that isolates change from dynamic influences only. The total AR frequency doubles compared to the historical period, with the middle AR type contributing the largest increases along the coasts of Vancouver Island and California. Atmospheric circulation (dynamic) changes decrease northern AR type frequency while increasing middle AR type frequency, indicating that future changes of circulation patterns modify the direct effect of warming on AR frequency, which would increase ARs (relative to fixed thresholds) almost everywhere along the North American coastline.

The Southern Ocean (SO) surface wind stress is a major atmospheric forcing for driving the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the global overturning circulation. Here the effects of wind fluctuations at different time scales on SO wind stress in 18 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are investigated. It is found that including wind fluctuations, especially on time scales associated with synoptic storms, in the stress calculation strongly enhances the mean strength, modulates the seasonal cycle, and significantly amplifies the trends of SO wind stress. In 11 out of the 18 CMIP5 models, the SO wind stress has strengthened significantly over the period of 1960–2005. Among them, the strengthening trend of SO wind stress in one CMIP5 model is due to the increase in the intensity of wind fluctuations, while in all the other 10 models the strengthening trend is due to the increasing strength of the mean westerly wind. These discrepancies in SO wind stress trend in CMIP5 models may explain some of the diverging behaviors in the model-simulated SO circulation. Our results suggest that to reduce the uncertainty in SO responses to wind stress changes in the coupled models, both the mean wind and wind fluctuations need to be better simulated.

The predictability and forecast skill of the models participating in the Climate Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) database is assessed through evaluating the representation of the upper-tropospheric extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in winter and summer and its main modes of variability. In summer, the predictability of 200-hPa geopotential height anomalies mainly comes from the ability of the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) to forecast the first three modes of interannual variability with high fidelity. The MMEM can reproduce not only the spatial patterns of these modes but also their temporal evolution. On the other hand, in JJA only the second and fourth modes of variability are predictable by the MMEM. These seasonal differences in the performance of the MMEM seem to be related to the role that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have in influencing the variability of each mode. Accordingly, modes that are strongly linked to tropical SST anomalies are better forecast by the MMEM and show less spread among models. The analysis of both 2-m temperature and precipitation anomalies in the SH associated with the predictable modes reveals that DJF predictable modes are accompanied by significant temperature anomalies. In particular, temperatures at polar (tropical) latitudes are significantly correlated with the first (second) mode. Furthermore, these links obtained with observations are also well forecast by the MMEM and can help to improve seasonal forecast of climate anomalies in those regions with low skill. Fil: Osman, Marisol. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina Fil: Vera, Carolina Susana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina

The interannual variability of wintertime North American surface temperature extremes and its generation and maintenance are analyzed in this study. The leading mode of the temperature extreme anomalies, revealed by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of December–February mean temperature extreme indices over North America, is characterized by an anomalous center of action over western-central Canada. In association with the leading mode of temperature extreme variability, the large-scale atmospheric circulation features an anomalous Pacific–North American (PNA)-like pattern from the preceding fall to winter, which has important implications for seasonal prediction of North American temperature extremes. A positive PNA pattern leads to more warm and fewer cold extremes over western-central Canada. The anomalous circulation over the PNA sector drives thermal advection that contributes to temperature anomalies over North America, as well as a Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern in the midlatitude North Pacific. The PNA-like circulation anomaly tends to be supported by SST warming in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and a positive synoptic-scale eddy vorticity forcing feedback on the large-scale circulation over the PNA sector. The leading extreme mode–associated atmospheric circulation patterns obtained from the observational and reanalysis data, together with the anomalous SST and synoptic eddy activities, are reasonably well simulated in most CMIP5 models and in the multimodel mean. For most models considered, the simulated patterns of atmospheric circulation, SST, and synoptic eddy activities have lower spatial variances than the corresponding observational and reanalysis patterns over the PNA sector, especially over the North Pacific.

The thermodynamic processes and synoptic circulation features driving lower-tropospheric temperature extremes in the high Arctic (>80°N) are investigated. Based on 10-day kinematic backward trajectories from the 5% most intense potential temperature anomalies, the contributions of horizontal and vertical transport, subsidence-induced warming, and diabatic processes to the generation of the Arctic temperature anomaly are quantified. Cold extremes are mainly the result of sustained radiative cooling due to a sheltering of the Arctic from meridional airmass exchanges. This is linked to a strengthening of the tropospheric polar vortex, a reduced frequency of high-latitude blocking, and in winter also a southward shift of the North Atlantic storm track. The temperature anomaly of 60% of wintertime extremely warm air masses (90% in summer) is due to transport from a potentially warmer region. Subsidence from the Arctic midtroposphere in blocking anticyclones is the most important warming process with the largest contribution in summer (70% of extremely warm air masses). In both seasons, poleward transport of already warm air masses contributes around 20% and is favored by a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track. Finally, about 40% of the air masses in winter are of an Arctic origin and experience diabatic heating by surface heat fluxes in marine cold air outbreaks. Our study emphasizes the importance of processes in the Arctic and the relevance of anomalous blocking—in winter in the Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas and in summer in the high Arctic—for the formation of warm extremes.

This study gives a comprehensive picture of how atmospheric large-scale circulation is related to moisture transport and to distributions of moisture, clouds, and surface downward longwave radiation in the Arctic in winter. Anomaly distributions of the abovementioned variables are compared in 30 characteristic wintertime atmospheric circulation regimes, which are allocated from 15 years (2003–17) of mean sea level pressure data of ERA-Interim reanalysis applying the self-organizing map method. The characteristic circulation regimes are further related to known climate indices—the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Greenland blocking index—as well as to a frequent high pressure pattern across the Arctic Ocean from Siberia to North America, herein called the Arctic bridge. Effects of large-scale circulation on moisture, cloud, and longwave radiation are to a large extent occurring through the impact of horizontal moisture transport. Evaporation is typically not efficient enough to shape those distributions, and much of the moisture evaporated in the Arctic is transported southward. The positive phase of the NAO and AO increases moisture and clouds in northern Europe and the eastern North Atlantic Ocean, and a strong Greenland blocking typically increases those in the southwest of Greenland. When the Arctic bridge is lacking, the amount of moisture, clouds, and downward longwave radiation is anomalously high near the North Pole. Our results reveal a strong dependence of moisture, clouds, and longwave radiation on atmospheric pressure fields, which also appears to be important from a climate change perspective.

The Western Hemisphere (WH) circulation pattern, identified by self-organizing maps cluster analysis, is a low-frequency atmospheric regime that influences the fluctuations of large-scale circulation over the North Pacific–North American–North Atlantic areas. The reanalysis datasets from ECMWF are used to estimate the energetics of the WH pattern in this study. The composite results based on monthly WH events reveal that the kinetic energy (KE) associated with the WH pattern is maintained through the barotropic conversion from the climatological-mean westerlies, mainly in the Atlantic jet exit regions. The KE could also be gained through the barotropic feedback forcing from transient eddies. The corresponding baroclinic conversion of available potential energy (APE) from the climatological-mean state, which contributes most efficiently to the energy maintenance of the WH pattern, is obvious in the middle and lower troposphere, owing to the thermal contrast of the colder continent and warmer ocean over the North America–North Atlantic sector. The baroclinic conversion associated with the heat flux on the climatological temperature gradient is consistent with the southwestward-tilting height anomalies from 850 to 500 hPa. The baroclinic feedback from transient eddies contributes negatively to the energy conversion and destroys the maintenance of the WH pattern.

This study investigated the extratropical circulation anomalies responsible for cold surges over the South China Sea in winter. The surge events were identified by the intensity of northerly winds over 110°–117.5°E along 15°N at 925 hPa. Two distinct patterns of sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in East Asia were found to have a crucial role in inducing cold surges over the South China Sea. Accordingly, the cold surge events were classified into two types. The first type of cold surge is characterized by a pair of SLP anomalies with positive and negative ones centered over China and Japan, respectively, whereas the second type of cold surge is characterized by widespread and persistent positive SLP anomalies over East Asia. Furthermore, the first type of cold surge is accompanied by a deepened East Asian trough and precursory Rossby wave trains across the Eurasian continent in the mid- and upper troposphere, but the latter is not. Prior to both types of the cold surges, the Siberian high is significantly intensified. However, diagnosis of the SLP tendency indicates that the intensification is related to different physical processes. In the first type of cold surge, the Rossby wave trains favor negative vorticity advection and cold advection, inducing intensification of the Siberian high. By contrast, in the second type of cold surge, vorticity advection can be ignored due to the lack of Rossby wave trains, and only the lower-tropospheric cold advection induced by anomalous northerly winds, resulting from the anomalous Siberian high, contributes to the further intensification of the Siberian high.

Using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and Global Precipitation Climatology Project monthly rainfall, we have investigated the regional features of interannual variations of rainfall in the Maritime Continent (MC) and their related anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns during boreal summer by employing the rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis. Our results demonstrate that the rainfall variabilities in the MC are of very striking regional characteristics. The MC is divided into four independent subregions on the basis of the leading REOF modes; these subregions are located in central-eastern Indonesia (subregion I), the oceanic area to the west of Indonesia (subregion II+V), the part of the warm pool in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean (subregion III), and Guam (subregion IV+VI).The anomalous precipitation in different subregions exhibits different variation periodicities, which are associated with different circulation patterns as a result of atmospheric response to different sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific sector. It is found that rainfall anomalies in subregion I are induced by the Pacific ENSO, whereas those in subregion II+V are dominated by a triple SSTA pattern with positive correlations in the MC and negative correlation centers in the tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. Rainfall anomalies in subregion III mainly resulted from an SSTA pattern with negative correlations in the eastern MC and positive correlations in the western equatorial Pacific east of the MC. A horseshoe SSTA pattern in the central Pacific is found to affect the precipitation anomalies in subregion IV+VI. All of the results of this study are helpful for us to better understand both the climate variations in the MC and monsoon variations in East Asia.

Previous work showed that the poleward expansion of the annual-mean zonal-mean atmospheric circulation in response to global warming is strongly modulated by changes in clouds and their radiative heating of the surface and atmosphere. Here, a hierarchy and an ensemble of global climate models are used to study the circulation impact of changes in atmospheric cloud-radiative heating in the absence of changes in sea surface temperature (SST), which is referred to as the atmospheric pathway of the cloud-radiative impact. For the MPI-ESM model, the atmospheric pathway is responsible for about half of the total cloud-radiative impact, and in fact half of the total circulation response. Changes in atmospheric cloud-radiative heating are substantial in both the lower and upper troposphere. However, because SST is prescribed the atmospheric pathway is dominated by changes in upper-tropospheric cloud-radiative heating, which in large part results from the upward shift of high-level clouds. The poleward circulation expansion via the atmospheric pathway and changes in upper-tropospheric cloud-radiative heating are qualitatively robust across three global models, yet their magnitudes vary by a factor of 3. A substantial part of these magnitude differences are related to the upper-tropospheric radiative heating by high-level clouds in the present-day climate. A comparison with observations highlights the model deficits in representing the radiative heating by high-level clouds and indicates that reducing these deficits can contribute to improved predictions of regional climate change.

The impact of global warming–induced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) narrowing onto the higher-latitude circulation is examined in the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 2.1 (AM2.1), run over zonally symmetric aquaplanet boundary conditions. A striking reconfiguration of the deep tropical precipitation from double-peaked, off-equatorial ascent to a single peak at the equator occurs under a globally uniform +4 K sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation. This response is found to be highly sensitive to the SST profile used to force the model. By making small (≤1 K) perturbations to the surface temperature in the deep tropics, varying control simulation precipitation patterns with both single and double ITCZs are generated. Across the climatologies, narrower regions of ascent correspond to more equatorward Hadley cell edges and eddy-driven jets. Under the global warming perturbation, the experiments in which there is narrowing of the ITCZ show significantly less expansion of the Hadley cell and somewhat less poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet than those without ITCZ narrowing. With a narrower ITCZ, the ascending air has larger zonal momentum, causing more westerly upper-tropospheric subtropical wind. In turn, this implies 1) the subtropical jet will become baroclinically unstable at a lower latitude and 2) the critical (zero wind) line will shift equatorward, allowing midlatitude eddies to propagate farther equatorward. Both of these mechanisms modify the Hadley cell edge position, and the latter affects the jet position.

Future emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are projected to result in significant circulation changes. One of the most important changes is the widening of the tropical belt, which has great societal impacts. Several mechanisms (changes in surface temperature, eddy phase speed, tropopause height, and static stability) have been proposed to explain this widening. However, the coupling between these mechanisms has precluded elucidating their relative importance. Here, the abrupt quadrupled-CO2 simulations of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to examine the proposed mechanisms. The different time responses of the different mechanisms allow us to disentangle and evaluate them. As suggested by earlier studies, the Hadley cell edge is found to be linked to changes in subtropical baroclinicity. In particular, its poleward shift is accompanied by an increase in subtropical static stability (i.e., a decrease in temperature lapse rate) with increased CO2 concentrations. These subtropical changes also affect the eddy momentum flux, which shifts poleward together with the Hadley cell edge. Transient changes in tropopause height, eddy phase speed, and surface temperature, however, were found not to accompany the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edge. The widening of the Hadley cell, together with the increase in moisture content, accounts for most of the expansion of the dry zone. Eddy moisture fluxes, on the other hand, are found to play a minor role in the expansion of the dry zone.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle has a great impact on the summer moisture circulation over East Asia (EA) and the western North Pacific [WNP (EA-WNP)] on an interannual time scale, and its modulation is mainly embedded in the leading mode. In contrast to the stable influence of the mature phase of ENSO, the impact of synchronous eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on summer moisture circulation is negligible during the 1970s–80s, while it intensifies after 1991. In response, the interannual variation of moisture circulation exhibits a much more widespread anticyclonic/cyclonic pattern over the subtropical WNP and a weaker counterpart to the north after 1991. Abnormal moisture moves farther northward with the enhanced moisture convergence, and thus precipitation shifts from the Yangtze River to the Huai River valley. The decadal shift in the modulation of ENSO on moisture circulation arises from a more rapid evolution of the bonding ENSO cycle and its stronger coupling with circulation over the Indian Ocean after 1991. The rapid development of cooling SSTAs over the central-eastern Pacific, and warming SSTAs to the west over the eastern Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent (EIO-MC) in summer, stimulates abnormal descending motion over the western-central Pacific and ascending motion over the EIO-MC. The former excites an anticyclone over the WNP as a Rossby wave response, sustaining and intensifying the WNP anticyclone; the latter helps anchor the anticyclone over the tropical–subtropical WNP via an abnormal southwest–northeast vertical circulation between EIO-MC and WNP.

Atmosphere-only CMIP5 idealized climate experiments with quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 are analyzed to understand the fast response of the tropical overturning circulation to this forcing and the main mechanism of this response. A new metric for the circulation, based on pressure velocity in the subsidence regions, is defined, taking advantage of the dynamical stability of these regions and their reduced sensitivity to the GCM’s cloud and precipitation parameterization schemes. This definition permits us to decompose the circulation change into a sum of relative changes in subsidence area, static stability, and heating rate. A comparative analysis of aqua- and Earth-like planet experiments reveals the effect of the land–sea contrast on the total change in circulation. On average, under the influence of CO2 increase without surface warming, the atmosphere radiatively cools less, and this drives the 3%–4% slowdown of the tropical circulation. Even in an Earth-like planet setup, the circulation weakening is dominated by the radiatively driven changes in the subsidence regions over the oceans. However, the land–sea differential heating contributes to the vertical pattern of the circulation weakening by driving the vertical expansion of the tropics. It is further found that the surface warming would, independently of the CO2 effect, lead to up to a 12% slowdown in circulation, dominated by the enhancement of the static stability in the upper troposphere. The two mechanisms identified above combine in the coupled experiment with abrupt quadrupling, causing a circulation slowdown (focused in the upper troposphere) of up to 18%. Here, the independent effect of CO2 has a considerable impact only at time scales less than one year, being overtaken quickly by the impact of surface warming.

Recent analyses of global climate models suggest that uncertainty in the coupling between midlatitude clouds and the atmospheric circulation contributes to uncertainty in climate sensitivity. However, the reasons behind model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling have remained unclear. Here, we use a global climate model in an idealized aquaplanet setup to show that the Southern Hemisphere climatological circulation, which in many models is biased equatorward, contributes to the model differences in the cloud–circulation coupling. For the same poleward shift of the Hadley cell (HC) edge, models with narrower climatological HCs exhibit stronger midlatitude cloud-induced shortwave warming than models with wider climatological HCs. This cloud-induced radiative warming results predominantly from a subsidence warming that decreases cloud fraction and is stronger for narrower HCs because of a larger meridional gradient in the vertical velocity. A comparison of our aquaplanet results with comprehensive climate models suggests that about half of the model uncertainty in the midlatitude cloud–circulation coupling stems from this impact of the circulation on the large-scale temperature structure of the atmosphere, and thus could be removed by improving the climatological circulation in models. This illustrates how understanding of large-scale dynamics can help reduce uncertainty in clouds and their response to climate change.

A daily El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is developed based on precipitation rate and is used to investigate subseasonal time-scale extratropical circulation anomalies associated with ENSO-like convective heating. The index, referred to as the El Niño precipitation index (ENPI), is anomalously positive when there is El Niño–like convection. Conversely, the ENPI is anomalously negative when there is La Niña–like convection. It is found that when precipitation becomes El Niño–like (La Niña–like) on subseasonal time scales, the 300-hPa geopotential height field over the North Pacific and western North America becomes El Niño–like (La Niña–like) within 5–10 days. The composites show a small association with the MJO. These results are supported by previous modeling studies, which show that the response over the North Pacific and western North America to an equatorial Pacific heating anomaly occurs within about one week. This suggests that the mean seasonal extratropical response to El Niño (La Niña) may in effect simply be the average of the subseasonal response to subseasonally varying El Niño–like (La Niña–like) convective heating. Implications for subseasonal to seasonal forecasting are discussed.

Orographic stationary Rossby waves are an important influence on the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, especially in Northern Hemisphere winter. Changes in stationary waves with global warming have the potential to modify patterns of surface temperature and precipitation. This paper presents an analysis of the forcing of stationary waves by midlatitude orography across a wide range of climates in a moist idealized GCM, where latent heating and transient eddies are allowed to feed back on the stationary-eddy dynamics. The stationary-eddy amplitude depends to leading order on the surface winds impinging on the orography, resulting in different climate change responses for mountains at different latitudes. Latent heating is found to damp orographic stationary waves, whereas transient eddies are found to reinforce them. As the climate warms, the damping by latent heating becomes more effective while the reinforcement by transient eddies becomes less effective, leading to an overall reduction in orographic stationary wave amplitude. These effects overwhelm the influences of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and increased dry static stability, both of which increase the sensitivity of the free troposphere to orographic forcing. Together with a reduction in the midlatitude meridional temperature gradient, the weakening of orographic stationary waves leads to reduced zonal asymmetry of temperature and net precipitation in warm, moist climates. While circulation changes in this idealized model cannot be expected to agree quantitatively with changes in the real world, the key physical processes identified are broadly relevant.

This study examines how aerosol absorption affects the extratropical circulation by analyzing the response to a globally uniform increase in black carbon (BC) simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model forced by prescribed sea surface temperatures. The model includes aerosol direct and semidirect effects, but not indirect or cloud-absorption effects. BC-induced heating in the free troposphere stabilizes the midlatitude atmospheric column, which results in less energetic baroclinic eddies and thus reduced meridional energy transport at midlatitudes. Upper-tropospheric BC also decreases the meridional temperature gradient on the equatorward flank of the tropospheric jet and yields a weakening and poleward shift of the jet, while boundary layer BC has no significant influence on the large-scale circulation since most of the heating is diffused by turbulence in the boundary layer. The effectiveness of BC in altering circulation generally increases with height. Dry baroclinic eddy theories can explain most of the extratropical response to free-tropospheric BC. Specifically, the decrease in vertical eddy heat flux related to a more stable atmosphere is the main mechanism for reestablishing atmospheric energy balance in the presence of BC-induced heating. Similar temperature responses are found in a dry idealized model, which further confirms the dominant role of baroclinic eddies in driving the extratropical circulation changes. The strong atmospheric-only response to BC suggests that absorbing aerosols are capable of altering synoptic-scale weather patterns. Its height dependence highlights the importance of better constraining model-simulated aerosol vertical distributions with satellite and field measurements.

Much of the existing theory for the ocean’s overturning circulation considers steady-state equilibrium solutions. However, Earth’s climate is not in a steady state, and a better understanding of the ocean’s nonequilibrium response to changes in the surface climate is urgently needed. Here, the time-dependent response of the deep-ocean overturning circulation to atmospheric warming is examined using a hierarchy of idealized ocean models. The transient response to surface warming is characterized by a shoaling and weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—consistent with results from coupled climate simulations. The initial shoaling and weakening of the AMOC occurs on decadal time scales and is attributed to a rapid warming of northern-sourced deep water. The equilibrium response to warming, in contrast, is associated with a deepening and strengthening of the AMOC. The eventual deepening of the AMOC is argued to be associated with abyssal density changes and driven by modified surface fluxes in the Southern Ocean, following a reduction of the Antarctic sea ice cover. Full equilibration of the AMOC requires a diffusive adjustment of the abyss and takes many millennia. The equilibration time scale is much longer than most coupled climate model simulations, highlighting the importance of considering integration time and initial conditions when interpreting the deep-ocean circulation in climate models. The results also show that past climates are unlikely to be an adequate analog for changes in the overturning circulation during the coming decades or centuries.

As key variables in general circulation models, precipitation and moisture in four leading models from CMIP5 (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) are analyzed, with a focus on four tropical oceanic regions. It is found that precipitation in these models is overestimated in most areas. However, moisture bias has large intermodel differences. The model biases in precipitation and moisture are further examined in conjunction with large-scale circulation by regime-sorting analysis. Results show that all models consistently overestimate the frequency of occurrence of strong upward motion regimes and peak descending regimes of 500-hPa vertical velocity [Formula: see text]. In a given [Formula: see text] regime, models produce too much precipitation compared to observation and reanalysis. But for moisture, their biases differ from model to model and also from level to level. Furthermore, error causes are revealed through decomposing contribution biases into dynamic and thermodynamic components. For precipitation, the contribution errors in strong upward motion regimes are attributed to the overly frequent [Formula: see text]. In the weak upward motion regime, the biases in the dependence of precipitation on [Formula: see text] and the [Formula: see text] probability density function (PDF) make comparable contributions, but often of opposite signs. On the other hand, the biases in column-integrated water vapor contribution are mainly due to errors in the frequency of occurrence of [Formula: see text], while thermodynamic components contribute little. These findings suggest that errors in the frequency of [Formula: see text] occurrence are a significant cause of biases in the precipitation and moisture simulation.

Although proxies have generally been used to study deep ocean convection and overturning circulation in the Labrador Sea, their efficacy has not been explicitly evaluated because observations that directly measure those variables are scarce. In this study, the volume of newly formed Labrador Sea Water (LSW) and the overturning circulation in the Labrador Sea are estimated using observational data and output from a high-resolution ocean model and then compared to proxies used to represent those variables. The comparisons reveal the limitations of proxies, highlighting the desirability of robust estimates derived from direct monitoring in the region [i.e., from Argo and Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP)]. A linkage among LSW formation, overturning circulation in the Labrador Sea, and the export of LSW from the basin on interannual time scales is found in the model.

Previous studies have highlighted an important organizing influence of the seasonal Southern Hemisphere stratospheric vortex breakdown on the large-scale stratospheric and tropospheric circulation. The present study extends this work by considering the statistical predictability of the stratospheric vortex breakdown event, using reanalysis data. Perturbations to the winter stratospheric vortex are shown to persist into austral spring and to lead to a shift in the statistics of the breakdown event during austral summer. This is interpreted as evidence for the potential for seasonal predictability of the vortex breakdown event in the stratosphere. Coupled variability between the stratosphere and troposphere is then considered. The semiannual oscillation of the tropospheric midlatitude jet is discussed, and evidence for a connection between this behavior and variations in the stratosphere is presented. Based on this connection, an argument is made for the concomitant potential for seasonal predictability in the troposphere, assuming knowledge of the stratospheric initial state. Combining these various results, a nonstationary, regime-based perspective of large-scale extratropical Southern Hemisphere circulation variability between late winter and summer is proposed. The implications of this perspective for some previous studies involving annular modes of the circulation are discussed. In particular, the long annular mode time scales during austral spring and summer should not be interpreted as an increased persistence of perturbations to some slowly varying seasonal cycle, but instead as a reflection of a phase shift of the seasonal cycle induced by stratospheric variability.

Atmospheric circulation types, blockings, and cyclones are central features of the extratropical flow and key to understanding the climate system. This study intercompares the representation of these features in 10 reanalyses and in an ensemble of 30 climate model simulations between 1980 and 2005. Both modern, full-input reanalyses and century-long, surface-input reanalyses are examined. Modern full-input reanalyses agree well on key statistics of blockings, cyclones, and circulation types. However, the intensity and depth of cyclones vary among them. Reanalyses with higher horizontal resolution show higher cyclone center densities and more intense cyclones. For blockings, no strict relationship is found between frequency or intensity and horizontal resolution. Full-input reanalyses contain more intense blocking, compared to surface-input reanalyses. Circulation-type classifications over central Europe show that both versions of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset contain more easterlies and fewer westerlies than any other reanalysis, owing to their high pressure bias over northeast Europe. The temporal correlation of annual circulation types over central Europe and blocking frequencies over the North Atlantic–European domain between reanalyses is high (around 0.8). The ensemble simulations capture the main characteristics of midlatitudinal atmospheric circulation. Circulation types of westerlies to northerlies over central Europe are overrepresented. There are too few blockings in the higher latitudes and an excess of cyclones in the midlatitudes. Other characteristics, such as blocking amplitude and cyclone intensity, are realistically represented, making the ensemble simulations a rich dataset to assess changes in climate variability.

The tropical overturning circulations are likely weakening under increased CO2 forcing. However, insufficient understanding of the circulations’ dynamics diminishes the full confidence in such a response. Based on a CMIP5 idealized climate experiment, this study investigates the changes in the Pacific Walker circulation under anthropogenic forcing and the sensitivity of its weakening response to internal variability, general circulation model (GCM) configuration, and indexing method. The sensitivity to internal variability is analyzed by using a 68-member ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR model, and the influence of model physics is analyzed by using the 28-member CMIP5 ensemble. Three simple circulation indices—based on mean sea level pressure, 500-hPa vertical velocity, and 200-hPa velocity potential—are computed for each member of the two ensembles. The study uses the output of the CMIP5 idealized transient climate simulations with 1% yr−1 CO2 increase from preindustrial level, and investigates the detected circulation response until the moment of CO2 doubling (70 yr). Depending on the indexing method, it is found that 50%–93% of the MPI-ESM-LR and 54%–75% of the CMIP5 ensemble members project significant negative trends in the circulation’s intensity. This large spread in the ensembles reduces the confidence that a weakening circulation is a robust feature of climate change. Furthermore, the similar magnitude of the spread in both ensembles shows that the Walker circulation response is strongly influenced by natural variability, even over a 70-yr period.

Understanding the physical drivers of heat waves is essential for improving short-term forecasts of individual events and long-term projections of heat waves under climate change. This study provides the first analysis of the influence of the large-scale circulation on Australian heat waves, conditional on the land surface conditions. Circulation types, sourced from reanalysis, are used to characterize the different large-scale circulation patterns that drive heat wave events across Australia. The importance of horizontal temperature advection is illustrated in these circulation patterns, and the pattern occurrence frequency is shown to reorganize through different modes of climate variability. It is further shown that the relative likelihood of a particular synoptic situation being associated with a heat wave is strongly modulated by the localized partitioning of available energy between surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (as measured through evaporative fraction) in many regions in reanalysis data. In particular, a several-fold increase in the likelihood of heat wave day occurrence is found during days of reduced evaporative fraction under favorable circulation conditions. The atmospheric circulation and land surface conditions linked to heat waves in reanalysis were then examined in the context of CMIP5 climate model projections. Large uncertainty was found to exist for many regions, especially in terms of the direction of future land surface changes and in terms of the magnitude of atmospheric circulation changes. Efforts to constrain uncertainty in both atmospheric and land surface processes in climate models, while challenging, should translate to more robust regional projections of heat waves.

This study investigates the moisture and wave feedbacks in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) dynamics by applying the general three-way interaction theoretical model. The three-way interaction model can reproduce observed large-scale characteristics of the MJO in terms of horizontal quadrupole-vortex structure, vertically tilted structure led by planetary boundary layer (PBL) convergence, slow eastward propagation with a period of 30–90 days, and planetary-scale circulation. The moisture feedback effects can be identified in this model by using diagnostic thermodynamic and momentum equations, and the wave feedback effects are investigated by using a diagnostic moisture equation. The moisture feedback is found to be responsible for producing the MJO dispersive modes when the convective adjustment process is slow. The moisture feedback mainly acts to reduce the frequency and growth rate of the short waves, while leaving the planetary waves less affected, so neglecting the moisture feedback is a good approximation for the wavenumber-1 MJO. The wave feedback is shown to slow down the eastward propagation and increase the growth rate of the planetary waves. The wave feedback becomes weak when the convective adjustment time increases, so neglecting the wave feedback is a good approximation for the MJO dynamics during a slow adjustment process. Sensitivities of these two feedbacks to other parameters are also discussed. These theoretical findings suggest that the two feedback processes, and thus the behaviors of the simulated MJO mode, should be sensitive to the parameters used in cumulus parameterizations.

A major bias in tropical precipitation over the Pacific in climate simulations stems from the models’ tendency to produce two strong distinct intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs) too often. Several mechanisms have been proposed that may contribute to the emergence of two ITCZs, but current theories cannot fully explain the bias. This problem is tackled by investigating how the interaction between atmospheric cloud-radiative effects (ACREs) and the large-scale circulation influences the ITCZ position in an atmospheric general circulation model. Simulations are performed in an idealized aquaplanet setup and the longwave and shortwave ACREs are turned off individually or jointly. The low-level moist static energy (MSE) is shown to be a good predictor of the ITCZ position. Therefore, a mechanism is proposed that explains the changes in MSE and thus ITCZ position due to ACREs consistently across simulations. The mechanism implies that the ITCZ moves equatorward if the Hadley circulation strengthens because of the increased upgradient advection of low-level MSE off the equator. The longwave ACRE increases the meridional heating gradient in the tropics and as a response the Hadley circulation strengthens and the ITCZ moves equatorward. The shortwave ACRE has the opposite effect. The total ACRE pulls the ITCZ equatorward. This mechanism is discussed in other frameworks involving convective available potential energy, gross moist stability, and the energy flux equator. It is thus shown that the response of the large-scale circulation to the shortwave and longwave ACREs is a fundamental driver of changes in the ITCZ position.

This study proposes an integrated diagnostic framework based on atmospheric circulation regime spatial patterns and frequencies of occurrence to facilitate the identification of model systematic errors across multiple time scales. To illustrate the approach, three sets of 32-yr-long simulations are analyzed for northeastern North America and for the March–May season using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Low Ocean–Atmosphere Resolution (LOAR) and Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) coupled models; the main difference between these two models is the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric model used. Regime-dependent biases are explored in the light of different atmospheric horizontal resolutions and under different nudging approaches. It is found that both models exhibit a fair representation of the observed circulation regime spatial patterns and frequencies of occurrence, although some biases are present independently of the horizontal resolution or the nudging approach and are associated with a misrepresentation of troughs centered north of the Great Lakes and deep coastal troughs. Moreover, the intraseasonal occurrence of certain model regimes is delayed with respect to observations. On the other hand, interexperiment differences in the mean frequencies of occurrence of the simulated weather types, and their variability across multiple time scales, tend to be negligible. This result suggests that low-resolution models could be of potential use to diagnose and predict physical variables via their simulated weather type characteristics.

The authors identify an interdecadal oscillatory mode of the North Atlantic atmosphere–ocean system in a general circulation model (GFDL CM2.1) via a linear inverse model (LIM). The oscillation mechanism is mostly embedded in the subpolar gyre: anomalous advection generates density anomalies in the eastern subpolar gyre, which propagate along the mean gyre circulation and reach the subpolar gyre center around 10 years later, when associated anomalous advection of the opposite sign starts the other half cycle. As density anomalies reach the Labrador Sea deep convection region, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) anomalies are also induced. Both the gyre and AMOC anomalies then propagate equatorward slowly, following the advection of density anomalies. The oscillation is further demonstrated to be more likely an ocean-only mode while excited by the atmospheric forcing; in particular, it can be approximated as a linearly driven damped oscillator that is partly excited by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The slowly evolving interdecadal oscillation significantly improves and prolongs the LIM’s prediction skill of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution.

The initiation of northern Australian monsoon rainfall bursts is accompanied by an increase in cyclonic circulation in the monsoon region. This study shows that the change in circulation at the start of the composite rainfall burst is predominantly influenced by midlatitude frontlike features. By exploiting the relationship between circulation tendency and the convergence of absolute vorticity flux, the circulation changes accompanying the initiation of Australian monsoon bursts is investigated. Moisture flux convergence is found to be proportional to the circulation changes in the monsoon region. Using a composite analysis it is shown that absolute vorticity fluxes through the southern boundary are by far the most important influence on monsoon burst circulation changes, with only one-third of events more closely related to other influences including the Madden–Julian oscillation. This is shown to be true throughout the wet season.

In this paper, the influence of high vertical resolution near the surface in an oceanic general circulation model in simulating the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability is investigated. In situ observations of vertical temperature profiles are first used to quantify temperature variability with depth near the ocean surface. The analysis shows that there is a sharp vertical temperature gradient within the top 10 m of the ocean. Both diurnal and intraseasonal variabilities of the ocean temperatures are largest near the surface and decrease with the ocean depth. Numerical experiments with an oceanic general circulation model are next carried out with 1- and 10-m vertical resolutions for the upper ocean to study the dependence of the simulated SST and vertical temperature structure on the vertical resolution. It is found that the simulated diurnal and intraseasonal variabilities, as well as the associated vertical temperature gradient near the surface, are strongly influenced by the oceanic vertical resolution, with the 1-m vertical resolution producing a stronger vertical temperature gradient and temporal variability than the 10-m vertical resolution. These results suggest that a realistic representation of SST variability with a high vertical resolution in the upper ocean is required for a coupled atmosphere–ocean model to correctly simulate the observed tropical intraseasonal oscillations, including the Madden–Julian oscillation and the boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation, which are strongly linked with the underlying SST.

The response of moisture circulation to the daily evolution of the India–Burma Trough (IBT) and the modulation of disturbances along the South Asian waveguide are analyzed to seek a potential precursor of winter precipitation over south China. Daily observational precipitation and reanalysis data from ERA-Interim during 1979–2012 are employed. It is found that moisture circulation in response to the IBT is part of the zonally oriented wave trains along the South Asian waveguide, but it persists longer and migrates farther eastward than other lobes. Cyclonic moisture transport enhances the moisture supply to south China as a strong IBT develops, and shifts eastward abruptly after the peak of IBT with enhanced precipitation shifting from southwest to southeast China. This response is a joint effect of synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual components that show similar wave train structures, whereas slight differences still occur. The synoptic component shows a shorter wavelength, more southerly path, faster phase speed, and group velocity, with the signal from the North Atlantic to the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in 6 days, implying that a disturbance over the North Atlantic is a potential precursor of winter precipitation over south China. The synoptic moisture convergence is more intensive than that at other scales upstream except over Southeast Asia, where all components are comparable. This might result from the constrained moisture source from BoB at the synoptic scale because of a short wavelength, while widespread sources from BoB–western North Pacific (WNP) at other scales as wavelengths are longer.