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As the only remaining ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) plays a crucial role in influencing atmospheric circulations, particularly with its rapid melting under global warming. In this paper, the influences of GrIS topography and surface thermal conditions are investigated by a series of aquaplanet experiments. The results show that the GrIS topography induces stationary waves and favors more blocking events through the generation of negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, while it tends to suppress local storm activities through the induced stationary waves. The surface cooling center of the GrIS is found to strengthen the jet streams by enhancing the meridional temperature gradient and thermal wind, while it causes the PV and static stability to increase during near-Greenland blocking days, thereby disfavoring blocking onset. Altogether, the topography and surface thermal effects of GrIS appear to compete with each other so that the net effect would determine the final response. Nevertheless, nonlinearity is found in both GrIS-topography alone and GrIS-surface temperature alone experiments, where nonlinear responses of atmospheric circulation are detected when the GrIS topography height or surface temperature exceeds their critical values, respectively. Hence, through this study, the response of the blocking in the vicinity of Greenland to the combined effects of topography and surface thermal conditions may shed light on comprehending the underlying mechanism of blocking alteration in a changing climate. Significance Statement: Although there have been numerous observation-based studies showing that the blocking around Greenland has increased over the past few decades, which is a predominant driver in accelerating the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melting, the reasons for this change are still unclear. In addition, the impact of GrIS on blocking still needs investigation. Through idealized aquaplanet simulations, this study examines the effect of GrIS's topography and surface thermal conditions upon blocking onset. It suggests the nonlinearity of the blocking response in the vicinity of Greenland to the combined effects in the variation of the height and surface temperature of GrIS. This study will enhance our understanding of possible changes in blocking due to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thermal and mechanical effects of the regional orography have long been recognized as the two most important factors driving the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands (SEALLH) are a warmer and wetter highland region adjacent to the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. However, the importance of the individual contributions of the thermal and mechanical effects of the SEALLH to the EASM is still unclear. Results of numerical experiments show that the thermal effect of the SEALLH contribute to the precipitation and upper-tropospheric circulation of the EASM by roughly the same magnitude as the mechanical effect of the SEALLH, when its original height is reduced by 50%. The thermal effect of the SEALLH influences the EASM by exciting an East Asia–Pacific-like teleconnection, whereas the mechanical effect of the SEALLH impacts the EASM by exciting an equivalent barotropic Bay of Bengal–East Asia–Pacific-like teleconnection. This study could provide a new perspective for a better understanding of the EASM. Significance Statement: Recent studies have shown that the mountains adjacent to the Tibetan Plateau have significant effects on the Asian summer monsoon, although these mountains are much lower in elevation and smaller in extent than the Tibetan Plateau. The Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands (SEALLH), located on the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, influence the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) via both thermal and mechanical effects. However, the individual thermal and mechanical contributions to the EASM have not yet been clarified. Numerical experiments designed specifically for the SEALLH, which is warmer and wetter than the Tibetan Plateau, show that the thermal effect of the SEALLH on precipitation and the upper-tropospheric circulation over the EASM region is roughly equivalent to the mechanical effect of the SEALLH when its original height was reduced by 50%, but via different physical processes. The thermal effect of the SEALLH induces southerly wind anomalies between the SEALLH and the western North Pacific, influencing the EASM by exciting an East Asia–Pacific-like wave train. The mechanical effect of the SEALLH influences the EASM by exciting an equivalent barotropic Bay of Bengal–East Asia–Pacific-like wave train. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an objective feature-tracking algorithm and the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF data (ERA5), the seasonal behaviors of cyclonic transient eddies (cyclones) at different levels around the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were examined to understand the effects of the TP on cyclones. Results show that the TP tends to change the moving directions of the remote cyclones when they are close to the TP, with only 2% of the 250-hPa eastward-moving cyclones directly passing over the TP. The sudden reductions of their moving speeds and relative vorticity intensities around the TP suggest a suppression effect of the plateau. Over 70% of these cyclones perish over the TP regardless of the altitude. This percentage decreases to around 65% during summertime, exhibiting a weaker summer suppression effect. On the other hand, the TP has a stimulation effect on local cyclones through its dynamic forcing in winter, thermodynamic forcing in summer, and both forcings in the transitional seasons. The numbers of locally generated cyclones, especially at 500 hPa, just above the TP, are significantly larger than those of the remote cyclones during all seasons. Although about one-half of the local cyclones dissipate over the TP, the cyclones moving off the plateau significantly outnumber the moving-in cyclones, with the differences ranging from 0 to 6 cyclones per month. Only the 250-hPa wintertime moving-off cyclones are fewer than the cyclones entering the TP, which may be caused by the weaker stimulation effect and stronger suppression effect of the TP on the wintertime upper-level cyclones. Significance Statement: Cyclonic transient eddies (cyclones), steered by westerly jet streams, can influence climate and induce extreme weather processes under certain conditions. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest obstacle embedded in the westerly jet streams, suppresses remote cyclones entering the TP region, destroying over 70% of these cyclones. However, because of the excitation effect of the TP on local cyclones, the numbers of cyclones moving off the TP are still larger than or equal to those of the moving-in cyclones, except at the upper levels in winter. This feature suggests that the TP cannot significantly decrease the total cyclone numbers in most cases, but it indeed weakens the mean intensity and moving speed of the cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the trends in hot summer days for the Pacific Northwest in observations and a regional climate model ensemble. Hot days are identified by the temperature threshold for several percentile values computed over 10-yr intervals (85th, 90th, and 95th percentiles and absolute maximum) to differentiate heat events of different intensities and are compared to the median temperature (50th percentile). For the stations analyzed, the observed rate of warming during hot days is not statistically different from the warming rate of median days since the 1950s. However, for projections to 2100, hot days show a statistically significant increase in the warming rate of the hottest days compared to the warming rate for median days. Depending on location, the 95th-percentile daily maximum temperature shows a warming rate of up to 0.2°C decade−1 above the median warming rate. The divergence in the trends of median and extreme temperature shows substantial regional variation depending on local terrain and coastlines. The warming trend during hot days is related to the unique circulation patterns during heat events, which respond to different feedbacks and amplifying effects in the land–atmosphere system from those that prevail during typical days. The regional climate model simulations are taken from an ensemble of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations forced by 12 global climate model simulations from phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using the RCP8.5 emissions scenario and 12-km grid spacing. Significance Statement: The heatwave of June 2021 had substantial societal and ecological impacts, illustrating vulnerability to record-shattering events. This paper addresses whether climate change can cause heat events in the Pacific Northwest to warm at a more rapid rate than typical days. Based on observations, in the recent past, the hottest days warmed at about the same rate as typical days in the recent past. However, results from a high-resolution climate model show a higher rate of warming during the warmest days relative to median days under the most aggressive future emissions scenario. This effect could cause heatwaves to become more intense relative to typical days by 2100, making adaptation to extreme events more difficult. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous theoretical studies suggest that the topography along the west coast of Australia plays an important role in strengthening and trapping the Leeuwin Current (LC) at the coast. To isolate and quantify the effect of the continental shelf and slope on the LC and Ningaloo Niño, high-resolution (1/12°) ocean general circulation model experiments with different bottom topographies are performed. The "control" experiment uses a realistic bottom topography along the west coast of Australia, whereas the sensitivity ("no-shelf") experiment uses a modified topography with no continental shelf and slope near the coast. The mean and variability of LC are realistically simulated in the control experiment. Compared to the control experiment, the strength of LC in the no-shelf experiment decreased by about 28%. The continental shelf influences the development of the 2010/11 Ningaloo Niño through modulating the LC variability: in August–October 2010 and January–February 2011, the LC in the control experiment is enhanced much more than that in the no-shelf experiment. As a result, the upper-50-m ocean temperature in the control experiment is about 26% warmer than the no-shelf experiment from September 2010 to March 2011. Different evolution of SST warming is also found in the two experiments. Comparisons of oceanic processes in the two experiments show that the shelf-slope topography can effectively trap the positive sea level anomaly at the coast in the control experiment while more Rossby waves radiate from the coast in the no-shelf experiment, resulting in a weaker LC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persisting wet events (PWEs) and persisting dry events (PDEs) over central India (CI), defined by rain spells lasting for 5 days or more above and below climatology, respectively, represent an important component of the Indian summer monsoon's intraseasonal variability. However, half of such PREs and PDEs that do not overlap with conventionally defined "active" and "break" spells over CI while contributing about 20% to the seasonal mean remained poorly studied. Here we find that, in contrast to more abundant longer (>5 days) wet and dry spells over the CI, the intraseasonal rainfall variability over northeast India (NEI) is characterized by higher abundance of intense shorter spells (<5 days). Physically, the difference is linked to the fact that monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with a 30–60-day time scale dominate subseasonal variability over the CI, whereas the 10–20-day quasi-biweekly mode dominates subseasonal variability over NEI. While non-overlapping PDEs are associated with large-scale but lower-intensity breaks, non-overlapping PWEs are associated with synoptic events with relatively smaller spatial scales rather than large-scale active events. Here, a percentile-based definition of active and break spells as daily rainfall in excess of the 90th percentile and below the 30th percentile, respectively, persisting for more than 3 days is proposed; this encompasses almost all non-overlapping PWEs and PDEs and is expected to be more useful to the users. Contributions of the subseasonal fluctuations to the seasonal mean and their association with predictable drivers indicate that the seasonal mean rainfall over the NEI is significantly less predictable than that over the CI. Significance Statement: Farmers eagerly await the extended range projections of "wet" and "dry" phases of Indian monsoon intraseasonal variability for planting, harvesting, and water resource management. The prevailing definitions for "active" and "break" spells, however, ignored the less intense persisting wet or dry events that contribute roughly equally to the seasonal mean rainfall. To facilitate the process, a new percentile-based definition of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall's intraseasonal spells is proposed that includes nearly all non-overlapping PWEs and PDEs. The subseasonal fluctuations' contributions to the seasonal mean and its association with predictable drivers suggest that the seasonal mean rainfall over the NEI is much less predictable than that over the CI, and thus illustrates the contrasting features of spells within these two regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Ocean bathymetry constrains the path of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), but the bathymetric influence on the coupled ocean–atmosphere system is poorly understood. Here, we investigate this impact by respectively flattening large topographic barriers around the Kerguelen Plateau, Campbell Plateau, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and Drake Passage in four simulations in a coupled climate model. The barriers impact both the wind and buoyancy forcing of the ACC transport, which increases by between 4% and 14% when barriers are removed individually and by 56% when all barriers are removed simultaneously. The removal of Kerguelen Plateau bathymetry increases convection south of the plateau and the removal of Drake Passage bathymetry reduces convection upstream in the Ross Sea. When the barriers are removed, zonal flattening of the currents leads to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that strongly correlate to precipitation anomalies, with correlation coefficients ranging between r = 0.92 and r = 0.97 in the four experiments. The SST anomalies correlate to the surface winds too in some locations. However, they also generate circumpolar waves of sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies, which induce remote wind speed changes that are unconnected to the underlying SST field. The meridional variability in the wind stress curl contours over the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Kerguelen Plateau, and the Campbell Plateau disappears when these barriers are removed, confirming the impact of bathymetry on surface winds. However, bathymetry-induced wind changes are too small to affect the overall wave-3 asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. Removal of Southern Hemisphere orography is also inconsequential to the wave-3 pattern. Significance Statement: Several studies in the past have pointed to the controlling effect of bathymetry on currents in the Southern Ocean circulation, but a clear idea of the importance of the major topographic barriers in the Southern Ocean is lacking. By removing these barriers systematically in a coupled climate model, we can evaluate their impact on several important components of the climate system, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) pathways and strength, Antarctic Bottom Water formation, sea surface temperature, overlying winds, air–sea fluxes, and even precipitation. This helps in our understanding of what controls the pathways of the ACC and how much it matters for climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is known that the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can weaken the transient eddies (TEs) transported along the westerly jet stream. This study investigates the effects of the persistently suppressed TEs by the TP on the East Asian summer monsoon and the associated mechanisms using the NCAR Community Earth System Model. A nudging method is used to modify the suppression of the TEs without changing the steady dynamic and thermodynamic effects of the TP. The suppressed TEs by the TP weaken the East Asian westerly jet stream through the weakened poleward TE vorticity flux. On the one hand, the weakened jet stream leads to less (more) rainfall in northern (southern) East Asia by inducing anomalous moisture convergence, midtropospheric warm advection, and upper-level divergence, particularly in early summer when the eastward propagation of TE suppression by the TP is strong. On the other hand, the precipitation anomalies can shift the East Asian westerly jet stream southward and promote the moisture convergence in southern East Asia through latent heat release. Therefore, the persistent suppression of the TEs leads to a southward shift of the East Asian rain belt by a convective feedback, as it was previously found that the steady thermodynamic and dynamic forcings of the TP favored a northward shift of the rain belt. This study suggests that the anomalously weak TEs can lead to a rainfall change (more in the south, less in the north) over East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The thermal effect of the entire Tibetan Plateau (TP) tends to strengthen the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM); however, how does this monsoon component respond to the thermal conditions of different TP domains? How do the thermal conditions of the entire TP influence other monsoons, including the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM)? These questions are addressed by conducting an experiment with the CESM, which is forced by reducing the surface albedo over the plateau by half, from a TP-averaged 0.20 to 0.10, from May to September, and similar experiments for different TP domains. Both observational and model results show that the entire TP heating intensifies the large-scale Asian monsoon, the SASM, and the EASM but surprisingly weakens the SEASM. It is also surprising that the TP heating exerts a stronger effect on the EASM than on the SASM. The southern TP (south of 35°N) does not show the strongest impact on the SASM in comparison with other TP domains, and it exerts the weakest impact on the EASM, which is most strongly influenced by the thermal effect of the eastern (east of 90°E) and northern TP. The western TP weakens the SEASM (as do the other domains), and it strengthens other monsoon components. The thermal conditions of the southern and eastern TP are accompanied by signals of tropical atmospheric response at relatively broader spatial scales, whereas those of the northern TP more apparently lead to a significant wave train extending eastward from the TP to western Eurasia over the higher latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of the Rocky Mountains (RM) on meridional overturning circulations (MOCs) is investigated using a fully coupled climate model. Located between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the RM is a major mountain chain in North America. The presence of RM plays an important role in atmospheric moisture transport between the two oceans. Adding the RM to a flat global continent (OnlyRocky) leads to a weakening of the atmospheric moisture transport from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic, which is consistent with previous findings. However, the simulation also shows more atmospheric moisture is transported from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic to the North Atlantic. The net effect of moisture transport leads to a slight freshening of the North Atlantic. The Atlantic MOC (AMOC) is hardly changed, but the Pacific MOC (PMOC) declines by 40% due to more moisture retained in the North Pacific. The sensitivity experiment of removing the RM from a realistic global topography (NoRocky) gives roughly opposite atmospheric changes to the OnlyRocky experiment. The AMOC in NoRocky declines slightly and then recovers, while the PMOC is nearly unchanged. The paired experiments conducted in this study demonstrate that the presence of the RM plays a trivial role in Northern Hemisphere deep-water formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current climate models significantly overestimate precipitation and temperature over the southeast Pacific. Previous studies show that the Andes influence the southeast Pacific climate, but because they are a narrow mountain range, these effects are not well represented with the smoothing in low-resolution climate models. We hypothesize that the elevation of the Andes in low-resolution climate models is too low, allowing too much airflow across the mountains. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2.2 with a slab-ocean setting, we blocked the low-level airflow across the mountains by adjusting the height of the Andes. Our results show that using higher Andes in the model enhances the anticyclonic motion and increases the subsidence of air in the southeast Pacific. The evaporative cooling from the strengthened surface wind and the radiative cooling from the formation of low-level clouds lower the sea surface temperature (SST) in the southeast Pacific. The enhanced descent over the southeast Pacific inhibits precipitation. We also performed a sensitivity test, varying the elevation of the Andes from 0 to 6 km, and analyzed the resulting energy budget and climate in both hemispheres. An increase of the elevation of the Andes causes the energy flux equator (EKE) to shift northward, as a result of the decrease of the energy absorption in the Southern Hemisphere. Our research suggests that the Andes act as a barrier in maintaining the climate over the southeast Pacific Ocean, and this effect is not well represented in low-resolution climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the geometry of ocean basins have been influential in driving climate change throughout Earth's history. Here, we focus on the emergence of the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (GSR) and its influence on the ocean state, including large-scale circulation, heat transport, water mass properties, and global climate. Using a coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model, we consider the impact of introducing the GSR in an idealized Earth-like geometry, comprising a narrow Atlantic-like basin and a wide Pacific-like basin. Without the GSR, deep-water formation occurs near the North Pole in the Atlantic basin, associated with a deep meridional overturning circulation (MOC). By introducing the GSR, the volume transport across the sill decreases by 64% and deep convection shifts south of the GSR, dramatically altering the structure of the high-latitude MOC. Due to compensation by the subpolar gyre, the northward ocean heat transport across the GSR only decreases by ~30%. As in the modern Atlantic Ocean, a bidirectional circulation regime is established with warm Atlantic water inflow and a cold dense overflow across the GSR. In sharp contrast to the large changes north of the GSR, the strength of the Atlantic MOC south of the GSR is unaffected. Outside the high latitudes of the Atlantic basin, the surface climate response is surprisingly small, suggesting that the GSR has little impact on global climate. Our results suggest that caution is required when interpreting paleoproxy and ocean records, which may record large local changes, as indicators of basin-scale changes in the overturning circulation and global climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More frequent high pressure conditions associated with atmospheric blocking episodes over Greenland in recent decades have been suggested to enhance melt through large-scale subsidence and cloud dissipation, which allows more solar radiation to reach the ice sheet surface. Here we investigate mechanisms linking high pressure circulation anomalies to Greenland cloud changes and resulting cloud radiative effects, with a focus on the previously neglected role of topography. Using reanalysis and satellite data in addition to a regional climate model, we show that anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Greenland during recent extreme blocking summers produce cloud changes dependent on orographic lift and descent. The resulting increased cloud cover over northern Greenland promotes surface longwave warming, while reduced cloud cover in southern and marginal Greenland favors surface shortwave warming. Comparison with an idealized model simulation with flattened topography reveals that orographic effects were necessary to produce area-averaged decreasing cloud cover since the mid-1990s and the extreme melt observed in the summer of 2012. This demonstrates a key role for Greenland topography in mediating the cloud and melt response to large-scale circulation variability. These results suggest that future melt will depend on the pattern of circulation anomalies as well as the shape of the Greenland Ice Sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stationary waves describe the persistent meanders in the west–east flow of the extratropical atmosphere. Here, changes in stationary waves caused by ice sheets over North America are examined and the underlying mechanisms are discussed. Three experiment sets are presented showing the stationary wave response to the albedo or topography of ice sheets, as well as the albedo and topography in combination, as the forcings evolve from 21 to 6 ka. It is found that although the wintertime stationary waves have the largest amplitude, changes due to an ice sheet are equally large in summer and winter. In summer, ice sheet albedo is the dominant cause of changes: topography alone gives an opposite response to realistic ice sheets including albedo and topography. In winter, over the Atlantic, stationary wave changes are due to the ice sheet topography; over the Pacific, they are due to the persistence of summertime changes, mediated by changes in the ocean circulation. It is found that the response of stationary waves over the last deglaciation echoes the above conclusions, with no evidence of abrupt shifts in atmospheric circulation. The response linearly weakens as the albedo and height decrease from 21 to 10 ka. As potential applications, the seasonal cycle over Greenland is shown to be sensitive primarily to changes in summer climate caused by the stationary waves; the annual mean circulation over the North Pacific is found to result from summertime, albedo-forced, stationary wave effects persisting throughout the year because of ocean dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past modeling simulations, supported by observational composites, indicate that during boreal summer, dry soil moisture anomalies in very different locations within the U.S. continental interior tend to induce the same upper-tropospheric circulation pattern: a high anomaly forms over west-central North America and a low anomaly forms to the east. The present study investigates the causes of this apparent phase locking of the upper-level circulation response and extends the investigation to other land regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The phase locking over North America is found to be induced by zonal asymmetries in the local basic state originating from North American orography. Specifically, orography-induced zonal variations of air temperature, those in the lower troposphere in particular, and surface pressure play a dominant role in placing the soil moisture–forced negative Rossby wave source (dominated by upper-level divergence anomalies) over the eastern leeside of the Western Cordillera, which subsequently produces an upper-level high anomaly over west-central North America, with the downstream anomalous circulation responses phase locked by continuity. The zonal variations of the local climatological atmospheric circulation, manifested as a climatological high over central North America, help shape the spatial pattern of the upper-level circulation responses. Considering the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, the northern Middle East exhibits similar phase locking, also induced by local orography. The Middle Eastern phase locking, however, is not as pronounced as that over North America; North America is where soil moisture anomalies have the greatest impact on the upper-tropospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open-ocean polynyas (OOPs) in the Southern Ocean are ice-free areas within the winter ice pack that are associated with deep convection, potentially contributing to the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water. To enhance the credibility of Earth system models (ESMs), their ability to simulate OOPs realistically is thus crucial. Here we investigate OOPs that emerge intermittently in a high-resolution (HR) preindustrial simulation with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 0.1 (E3SMv0), an offspring of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). While low-resolution (LR) simulations with E3SMv0 show no signs of OOP formation, the preindustrial E3SMv0-HR simulation produces both large Weddell Sea polynyas (WSPs) as well as small Maud Rise polynyas (MRPs). The latter are associated with a prominent seamount in the eastern Weddell Sea, and their preconditioning and formation is the focus of this study. The steep flanks of the rugged topography in this region are in E3SMv0-HR sufficiently well resolved for the impinging flow to produce pronounced Taylor caps that precondition the region for convection. Aided by an accumulation of heat in the Weddell Deep Water layer, the ultimate trigger of convection that leads to MRPs is the advection of anomalously high upper-ocean-layer salinity. The crucial difference to WSP-producing LR ESM simulations is that in E3SMv0-HR, WSPs are realistically preceded by MRPs, which in turn are a result of the flow around bathymetry being represented with unprecedented detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of continental topography on the initiation of a global glaciation (i.e., snowball Earth) is studied with both a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM), CCSM3, and an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), CAM3 coupled to a slab ocean model. It is found that when the climate is very cold, snow cover over the central region of the Eurasian continent decreases when the atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) is reduced. In the coupled model, this constitutes a negative feedback due to the reduction of land surface albedo that counteracts the positive feedback due to sea ice expansion toward the equator. When the solar insolation is 94% of the present-day value, Earth enters a snowball state when pCO2 is ~35 ppmv. On the other hand, if the continents are assumed to be flat topographically (with the global mean elevation as in the more realistic present-day case), Earth enters a snowball state more easily at pCO2 = ~60 ppmv. Therefore, the presence of topography may increase the stability of Earth against descent into a snowball state. On the contrary, a snowball Earth is found to form much more easily when complex topography is present than when it is not in CAM3. This happens despite the fact that the mid- to high-latitude climate is much warmer (by ~10°C) when topography is present than when it is not. Analyses show that neglecting sea ice dynamics in this model prevents the warming anomaly in the mid- to high latitudes from being efficiently transmitted into the tropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Year-to-year variations in summer precipitation have great socioeconomic impacts on China. Historical rainfall variability over China is investigated using a newly released high-resolution dataset. The results reveal summer-mean rainfall anomalies associated with ENSO that are anchored by mountains in central China east of the Tibetan Plateau. These orographically anchored hot spots of ENSO influence are poorly represented in coarse-resolution datasets so far in use. In post-El Niño summers, an anomalous anticyclone forms over the tropical northwest Pacific, and the anomalous southwesterlies on the northwest flank cause rainfall to increase in mountainous central China through orographic lift. At upper levels, the winds induce additional adiabatic updraft by increasing the eastward advection of warm air from Tibet. In post-El Niño summers, large-scale moisture convergence induces rainfall anomalies elsewhere over flat eastern China, which move northward from June to August and amount to little in the seasonal mean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Weddell Sea polynya is a large opening in the open-ocean sea ice cover associated with intense deep convection in the ocean. A necessary condition to form and maintain a polynya is the presence of a strong subsurface heat reservoir. This study investigates the processes that control the stratification and hence the buildup of the subsurface heat reservoir in the Weddell Sea. To do so, a climate model run for 200 years under preindustrial forcing with two eddying resolutions in the ocean (0.25° CM2.5 and 0.10° CM2.6) is investigated. Over the course of the simulation, CM2.6 develops two polynyas in the Weddell Sea, while CM2.5 exhibits quasi-continuous deep convection but no polynyas, exemplifying that deep convection is not a sufficient condition for a polynya to occur. CM2.5 features a weaker subsurface heat reservoir than CM2.6 owing to weak stratification associated with episodes of gravitational instability and enhanced vertical mixing of heat, resulting in an erosion of the reservoir. In contrast, in CM2.6, the water column is more stably stratified, allowing the subsurface heat reservoir to build up. The enhanced stratification in CM2.6 arises from its refined horizontal grid spacing and resolution of topography, which allows, in particular, a better representation of the restratifying effect by transient mesoscale eddies and of the overflows of dense waters along the continental slope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southwest vortex (SWV) is a meso-α-scale cyclonic low pressure system originating in southwest China. It is a high-impact precipitation-generating weather system in this region and a large downstream area. A climatology of the SWV over 1979-2010 is presented here. Results indicate that the SWV is a common regional weather system with about 73 annual occurrences. Two primary genesis regions are identified, one in the Sichuan basin and another one in the southeast flank of the Tibetan Plateau. SWV genesis displays seasonality with a spring-summer preference and diurnal variations. The average life cycle, horizontal dimension, and translation speed are 15.1 h, 435 km, and 8.6 m s−1, respectively. SWVs are classified into four types that show regional and seasonal contrasts in structure. In type I, the winter-spring elevated dry vortex in the basin is vertically confined to a shallow layer between 850 and 600 hPa and tilts northeastward. The low-level vortex has a cold center, and the middle to upper levels feature baroclinicity. In type II, the nighttime warm-season precipitating vortex system in the basin has a deep structure with the cyclonic vorticity extending from the surface into the upper troposphere. The nonsevere precipitating vortex (type IIa) is weakly baroclinic and tilts northward with height, whereas the severe precipitating vortex (type IIb) is vertically aligned. For type III, in the southern mountains, the shallow surface-based vortex develops in a well-mixed boundary layer and vertically tilts in the upslope direction and has a warm and low-humidity core. For type IV, the heavy precipitating vortex in the mountainous region is large, deep, and nearly upright with a fairly barotropic environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of studies have suggested that heat waves will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration under anthropogenic global warming. However, changes to heat extremes and temperature distributions in general are less understood in regions of complex terrain and substantial land-water contrasts. Such surface variations are important in the northwest United States, where synoptic- and mesoscale circulations interact with local topography and land-water interfaces to produce heat waves that have substantial impacts on fire weather, air quality, wind energy, and the population in general. Thus it is crucial to identify how the synoptic- and mesoscale circulations that drive such local extremes will change in a warming world. This paper analyzes changes to the conditions associated with heat extremes over the northwest United States by utilizing global and regional climate models. A maximum in 700-hPa warming is projected over the northwest United States and southwest Canada, with low-level warming attenuated near the coast. Soil moisture declines are projected over the region, which further enhances future extremes. It is found that low-level zonal wind distributions over the northwest United States become narrower, leading to fewer days with strong offshore flow. This is important since extreme warming events are associated with the strongest offshore/downslope flow. Historical and future regional temperature distributions are described and it is shown that although CMIP5 models predict increases in heat extremes for west Oregon and Washington, these increases are less than for inland areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have suggested that, because of its particular location on the southeastern lee side of mountains, extreme heat (EH) over western north China (WNC) is affected by the foehn phenomenon. In this study, the EH days during summer over this region are categorized into foehn-favorable EH and no-foehn EH, according to whether there are anomalous northwesterlies over mountains, and composite analyses are performed on them. The analyzed results indicate that the no-foehn EH is characterized by an anticyclonic anomaly and a large-scale higher surface air temperature, while the foehn-favorable EH is featured by a cyclonic anomaly to the northeast and a localized higher temperature. Associated with the cyclonic anomaly, northwesterlies prevail over the mountain surface and provide a favorable environment for the occurrence of the foehn effect over WNC, which is located on the southeastern lee side of mountains. That is, both cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies can induce EH over WNC (i.e., foehn-favorable EH and no-foehn EH, respectively). Further investigation indicates that large-scale cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies tend to favor local descent and ascent anomalies over the lee side, respectively, through interaction with the particular terrain. Therefore, large-scale circulations and local terrain-induced winds play an offsetting role in affecting the surface air temperatures over WNC, and EH occurs when anomalous large-scale anticyclone or terrain-induced descent dominate. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the upper-level/large-scale circulations but also to their impact on lower-level/local winds for temperature variability over the places with great topographic relief worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the evolution of a continental-scale ice sheet on a triangular representation of North America, with and without the influence of the Cordilleran region. Simulations are conducted using a comprehensive atmospheric general circulation model asynchronously coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. The atmospheric state is updated for every 2 × 106 km3 increase in ice volume, and the coupled model is integrated to steady state. In the first experiment a flat continent with no background topography is used. The ice sheet evolves fairly zonally symmetric, and the equilibrium state is continent-wide and has the highest point in the center of the continent. This equilibrium ice sheet forces an anticyclonic circulation that results in relatively warmer (cooler) summer surface temperatures in the northwest (southeast), owing to warm (cold) air advection and radiative heating due to reduced cloudiness. The second experiment includes a simplified representation of the Cordilleran region. The ice sheet's equilibrium state is here structurally different from the flat continent case; the center of mass is strongly shifted to the east and the interior of the continent remains ice free-an outline broadly resembling the geologically determined ice margin in Marine Isotope Stage 4. The limited glaciation in the continental interior is the result of warm summer surface temperatures primarily due to stationary waves and radiative feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The circulation associated with extreme heat (EH) typically shows an anomalous anticyclone that enhances temperature through adiabatic heating, but this study indicates obvious spatial variation in eastern China. The EH-related circulation pattern in eastern China can be classified into three categories: typical extratropical pattern, monsoonal pattern, and foehn pattern. EH over northeastern China and eastern north China is characterized by a typical pattern involving an anomalous anticyclone and subsidence, and the air temperature increases throughout almost the entire troposphere. In contrast, EH over the Yangtze River valley and south China is associated with the monsoonal pattern. Over these regions, the air temperature only increases in the lower troposphere as a result of anomalous subsidence and lower humidity that has resulted from a farther north transportation of water vapor by a stronger monsoonal southwesterly. Meanwhile, the air temperature decreases in the upper troposphere because of the decrease of latent heat caused by suppressed precipitation. On the other hand, western north China, with most of its stations located on the eastern leeside of mountains, is obviously influenced by the foehn effect on EH days. The foehn-related northwesterly anomalies bring drier and warmer air from the mountains to sink on the leeside and greatly increase the air temperature in the lower troposphere, particularly near the surface. Therefore, the impacts of monsoon and topography should be taken into consideration when EH-related circulations are discussed over the many regions of eastern China. As a result, the reliable projection of air temperature in these regions under global warming is a challenging problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In summer, the atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean is characterized by localized intense subsidence and low-level northerlies over the central to eastern portion of the basin. Here, simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 are used to investigate the influence of the elevated terrain of North Africa and the Middle East on this summertime circulation. This builds on previous work that recognized a role for North African topography in localizing the Mediterranean subsidence. By flattening the two regions of elevated terrain in the model, it is demonstrated that, while they both conspire to produce about 30% of the summertime subsidence, contrary to previous work, the mountains of the Middle East dominate in this topographic contribution by far. This topography, consisting primarily of the Zagros mountain range, alters the circulation throughout the depth of the troposphere over the Mediterranean and farther east. The model results suggest that about 20% of the Mediterranean summertime moisture deficit can be attributed to this mountain-induced circulation. This topography, therefore, plays an important role in the climate of the Mediterranean and the large-scale circulation over the rest of Eurasia during the summer. Further stationary wave modeling reveals that the mountain influence is produced via mechanical forcing of the flow. The greatest influence of the topography occurs when the low-level incident flow is easterly, as happens during the summer, primarily because of the presence of condensational heating over Asia. During other seasons, when the low-level incident flow is westerly, the influence of Middle East topography on the Mediterranean is negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines daily precipitation data during December-March over south equatorial Africa (SEA) and proposes a new zonal asymmetric pattern (ZAP) that explains the leading mode of weather-scale precipitation variability in the region. The eastern and western components of the ZAP, separated at about 30°E, appear to be a consequence of an anomalous zonal atmospheric cell triggered by enhanced low-level westerly winds. The enhanced westerlies are generated by a diagonal interhemispheric pressure gradient between the southwestern Indian and north tropical Atlantic Oceans. In eastern SEA these winds hit the East African Plateau, producing low-level convergence and convection that further intensifies the westerlies. In western SEA a subsiding branch develops in response, closing the circulation cell. The system gradually dissipates as the pressure gradient weakens. Through this mechanism, simultaneous changes in two hemispheres generate a regional zonally oriented circulation that relies on climatic communication between eastern and western equatorial Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reexamines how the Tibetan Plateau (TP) modulates the annual variation of atmospheric circulation and storm-track activity based on the Meteorological Research Institute's atmosphere-ocean coupled model experiments with a progressive TP uplift from 0% to 100% of the present height. Three major roles of the TP on atmospheric circulation and storm-track activity are identified. First, consistent with a previous finding, the TP tends to intensify the upper-level jet and enhance baroclinicity in the North Pacific Ocean but significantly weaken storm-track activity over the TP, East Asia, and the western North Pacific during the cold season. Second, the TP amplifies stationary waves that are closely linked to transient eddies. In particular, the TP enhances the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, which together contribute to the strengthening of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and the weakening of storm-track activity. Third, the TP significantly modulates the subseasonal variability of the Pacific storm-track (PST) activity. In particular, the TP tends to suppress PST activity during midwinter despite the fact that it strengthens baroclinicity along the Pacific jet. The midwinter suppression of PST activity, which is well reproduced in a control run with a realistic TP, gradually disappears as the TP height decreases. Major factors for the midwinter suppression of the PST associated with the TP include the 1) destructive effect of an excessively strong jet leading to an inefficiency of barotropic energy conversion, 2) reduction of baroclinicity over the northern part of the TP, and 3) subseasonally varying SST change and resulting moist static energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) products are evaluated with sounding observations from an enhanced radiosonde network available every 6 h during the Tibetan Plateau Experiment (TIPEX) conducted from 10 May to 9 August 1998. This study uses more than 3000 high-quality, independent rawinsondes at 11 stations (which were not assimilated in any of the reanalyses), which represents the first time that such a comprehensive evaluation is performed to assess the quality of these four most widely used reanalysis products over this region, which is highest in the world and crucial to the global climate and weather. Averaging over the entire three-month period, it is found that each reanalysis dataset produces mean values of temperature and horizontal winds consistent with the verifying soundings (indicating relatively small mean bias); however, there are considerable differences (biases) in the mean relative humidity. On average, except for temperature at higher levels, both newer-generation reanalyses (CFSR and ERA-Interim) have smaller root-mean-square (RMS) error and bias than their predecessors (NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40). With some exceptions, the RMS errors of all variables for both CFSR and ERA-Interim (verifying with soundings) are similar in magnitude to the RMS difference between these two reanalyses, all of which are approximately twice as large as the corresponding observation errors. It is also found that there are strong diurnal variations in both RMS error and mean bias that differ greatly among different reanalyses and at different pressure levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simulation characteristics of the Asian-Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 [Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean-atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian-Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Niño in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian-Australian monsoon and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon-ENSO connection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of the Brazilian Plateau (BP) in maintaining the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) has been examined by statistical analysis and numerical experiments. Statistical analysis using 27 years of data showed that the SACZ is most intense when it is over the BP. In this case, low-level cyclonic circulation appears over the southwestern part of the BP and forms westerly flow, which intensifies low-level convergence along the SACZ with northeasterly flow from the Amazon and northerly flow along the western edge of the South Atlantic subtropical high. A vorticity budget analysis indicates that precipitation over the BP that accompanies stretching maintains the cyclonic circulation. Sensitivity experiments using a regional atmospheric model for two different cases indicate that precipitation over the BP plays a dominant role as an atmospheric heat source in maintaining the cyclonic circulation and the SACZ. In model experiments in which rain was stopped around the BP but the topography was kept, the cyclonic circulation disappeared, and the SACZ shifted southward away from its original position. In comparison with a control run, precipitation over the BP was weakened and the SACZ shifted southward in experiments in which the BP was removed or its complex, multiple-valley terrain was smoothed out. The results of this study support the ideas suggested in previous studies (i.e., that the BP has an anchor effect on the SACZ): Precipitation is intensified over the complex terrain of the BP, and mechanisms of conditional instability of the second kind occur between the precipitation over the BP and the cyclonic circulation to its southwest, which intensifies moisture convergence over the plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical downscaling is widely used to improve spatial and/or temporal distributions of meteorological variables from regional and global climate models. This downscaling is important because climate models are spatially coarse (50-200 km) and often misrepresent extremes in important meteorological variables, such as temperature and precipitation. However, these downscaling methods rely on current estimates of the spatial distributions of these variables and largely assume that the small-scale spatial distribution will not change significantly in a modified climate. In this study the authors compare data typically used to derive spatial distributions of precipitation [Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM)] to a high-resolution (2 km) weather model [Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF)] under the current climate in the mountains of Colorado. It is shown that there are regions of significant difference in November-May precipitation totals (>300 mm) between the two, and possible causes for these differences are discussed. A simple statistical downscaling is then presented that is based on the 2-km WRF data applied to a series of regional climate models [North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)], and the downscaled precipitation data are validated with observations at 65 snow telemetry (SNOTEL) sites throughout Colorado for the winter seasons from 1988 to 2000. The authors also compare statistically downscaled precipitation from a 36-km model under an imposed warming scenario with dynamically downscaled data from a 2-km model using the same forcing data. Although the statistical downscaling improved the domain-average precipitation relative to the original 36-km model, the changes in the spatial pattern of precipitation did not match the changes in the dynamically downscaled 2-km model. This study illustrates some of the uncertainties in applying statistical downscaling to future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong anticyclones have a significant impact on the cool season climate over mid- and high-latitude landmasses as they are typically accompanied by arctic air masses that can eventually move into populated midlatitude regions. Composite analyses of Alaskan and Siberian strong anticyclones based on sea level pressure (SLP) thresholds of 1050 and 1060 hPa, respectively, were performed to diagnose large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical parameters associated with the formation of strong anticyclones over these two climatologically favorable regions. The anticyclone composite analyses indicate the presence of moderate-to-high-amplitude ridge--trough patterns associated with anticyclogenesis. These ridge--trough patterns are critical as they lead to dynamically favorable circumstances for rapid anticyclogenesis. The strong Alaskan anticyclone develops downstream of a highly amplified upper-tropospheric ridge and is associated with a region of strong tropospheric subsidence due to differential anticyclonic vorticity advection and cold-air advection over the anticyclone center. The strong Siberian anticyclone is associated with an upper-tropospheric pattern of lesser amplitude, suggesting that these dynamical factors, while still important, are less critical to its development. The relative location of elevated terrain features also appears to contribute greatly to the overall evolution of each of these anticyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A basic climatological description of 29 years of surface and upper-air observations at a coastal site (23.4°°S, 70.4°°W) in northern Chile is presented. The site is considered to be generally representative of the eastern coastal margin of the southeast Pacific stratocumulus region, which plays an important role in the global radiative balance. The analysis focuses on two of the main elements affecting coastal weather in this region: low-level cloudiness and the state of the subsidence temperature inversion. The objectives of the paper are 1) to present the basic climatological features of these elements and 2) to document the differences in the structure of this coastal boundary layer (BL) associated with the presence or absence of low-level clouds. Low-level clouds (defined here as ceilings less than 1500 m AGL) occur at the site mostly in the night, especially during austral winter and spring. Elevated subsidence inversions show a very large prevalence in the 1200 UTC [[0800 local time (LT)]] radiosonde profiles analyzed here, with base heights typically between 800 and 1100 m. The seasonal cycle of the subsidence inversion shows an ∼∼300-m amplitude at inversion base and top and a substantial BL cooling in austral winter. Generally weak and shallow surface-based inversions at 1200 UTC (0800 LT) are present in about 15%% of the soundings, with more frequent occurrence in austral fall. The second objective was accomplished by compositing surface meteorology and upper-air profiles conditioned by nighttime low-level cloudiness. More frequent surface inversions in temperature and dewpoint are found for mostly clear nights, as compared to mostly cloudy nighttime conditions. The clear-night BL shows a more stable temperature profile and larger vertical gradients in mixing ratio when compared to the approximately well-mixed cloud-topped BL. Above the BL, the clear composites show a weaker subsidence inversion and more intense northerly winds in the 1000--3000-m layer compared to the cloudy cases. Insights into the physical mechanisms underlying the findings above were sought by comparing the cloudy composites to results of a stationary mixed-layer model of a stratus-capped marine BL, by computing derived parameters pertaining to the temperature budget and the turbulent state of the lower troposphere and by using reanalysis fields to compute regional circulation anomalies associated to coastal low-level cloudiness. The results show physically significant differences in subsidence, horizontal temperature advection, and winds in the lower troposphere associated with the mean clear and cloudy coastal BL. Coastal clear nights appear associated with a cold anomaly in the lower troposphere over the southeast Pacific basin offshore of Peru and Chile, which by thermal wind arguments induce anomalies of southerly winds along the Chilean coast near the surface and northerly winds above the BL, while at the same time reducing the coastal subsidence in the lower troposphere. These results point to the importance of properly representing the sea--land temperature contrast and the topographic impact on the lower-tropospheric flow in order to adequately model the coastal BL mean state over this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model''s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (SubBATS) is applied for a high-resolution regional climate simulation over the Alpine region with a regional climate model (RegCM3). The model coarse-gridcell size in the control simulation is 15 km while the subgridcell size is 3 km. The parameterization requires disaggregation of atmospheric variables from the coarse grid to the subgrid and aggregation of surface fluxes from the subgrid to the coarse grid. Two 10-yr simulations (1983–92) are intercompared, one without (CONT) and one with (SUB) the subgrid scheme. The authors first validate the CONT simulation, showing that it produces good quality temperature and precipitation statistics, showing in particular a good performance compared to previous runs of this region. The subgrid scheme produces much finer detail of temperature and snow distribution following the topographic disaggregation. It also tends to form and melt snow more accurately in response to the heterogeneous characteristics of topography. In particular, validation against station observations shows that the SUB simulation improves the model simulation of the surface hydrologic cycle, in particular snow and runoff, especially at high-elevation sites. Finally, two experiments explore the model sensitivity to different subgrid disaggregation assumptions, namely, the temperature lapse rate and an empirical elevation-based disaggregation of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]