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The analysis of household wealth dynamic remains an important methodology in the identification of poverty traps. To overcome measurement issues in survey data, livelihoods-based approaches of the dynamics of poverty are typically examined using panel regressions of a livelihoods regression on household assets and other socio-economic factors over time. In this paper, we characterise the livelihoods regression as a 'livelihoods technology', and use a latent class-technology approach to account for heterogeneity in how households generate a livelihood. We use a detailed dataset from rural India covering 213 households across 2001–2014, and control for selection issues through a Heckman Selection model. Our results are the first in the wealth dynamics literature to show that substantial heterogeneity exists in the technologies with which households generate their livelihoods. Importantly, we show that accounting for heterogeneity in household livelihoods 'technologies' more readily identifies different equilibria in wealth levels and provides previously foregone information on who is poor and why they remain poor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes household data from nine programs in the Sahel region using a harmonized approach to compare Proxy-Means Testing (PMT) and Community-Based Targeting (CBT) as conducted in practice, once geographical targeting has been applied. Results show that the targeting performance measured depends critically on the definition of the targeting objectives, share of beneficiaries selected, and indices used to evaluate targeting. While PMT performs better in reaching the poorest households based on per capita consumption, it differs little from CBT, random or universal selection when distribution-sensitive measures are employed, or when food security is used as the welfare metric. Administrative costs associated with targeting represent only a small share of budgets. Results emphasize the importance of studying programs as implemented in practice instead of relying on simulations of targeting performance. They also suggest that PMT and CBT contribute little to poverty or food insecurity reduction efforts in poor and homogeneous settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper uses a microsimulation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to study the impact on poverty of a complete removal of tariffs in Zimbabwe. The model incorporates 14,006 households derived from the 1995 Poverty Assessment Study Survey. This paper's novelty is that it is one among a small group of papers that incorporates individual households in the CGE model as opposed to having representative households. Using individual households allows for a comprehensive analysis of poverty. The complete removal of tariffs favours exporting sectors. Poverty falls in the economy while inequality hardly changes. The results differ between rural and urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of a marginal approach can significantly distort the predicted effects of large price variations on monetary welfare over the medium- to longer-term. This paper aims at shedding some light on the differences between a marginal approach and a non-separable agricultural household model with behavioural responses. When behavioural adjustments are allowed, households can adapt their consumption and production patterns by resulting in lower deteriorations in household welfare. The second-order effects introduced in the approach with responses reduce the negative effects due to the first-order consumption effects, with significant differences across quintiles. On average, the second-order effects represent up to roughly 40 per cent of total first-order effects. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this paper we evaluate the impact of road development on household welfare in rural Papua New Guinea (PNG) between 1996 and 2010, using two geocoded cross-sectional national household surveys and corresponding road maps. We make use of time-variation in road surface type and condition as recorded in PNG's National Road Asset Management System, focusing on routes that connect rural households to urban areas. To tackle endogenous placement of road infrastructure programs, we employ a correlated random effects model that controls for the location-specific average road quality over the period of analysis. We also use a newly developed generalised quantile regression method to investigate whether road works favour the poor. Our estimates show that better roads to nearest towns lead to higher consumption levels and housing quality, and to less reliance on subsistence farming. The effects are stronger among poor and remote households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies the negative consequences of the strongest tropical storm ever to strike Guatemala on household welfare. Per capita consumption fell in urban areas, raising poverty substantially. Households cut back on food consumption and basic durables, and attempted to cope by increasing their adult and child labour supply. The mechanisms at play include the intensity of the shock, food prices and the timing of Agatha with respect to local harvest cycles. The results are robust to placebo treatments, migration and measurement error, and partly explain the increase in poverty in the country previously attributed solely to the collateral effects of the global financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses vulnerability to poverty of rural small-scale fishing communities using cross-section data from 295 households in Cameroon and 267 in Nigeria. We propose a vulnerability measure that incorporates the idea of asset poverty into the concept of expected poverty, which allows decomposing expected poverty into expected structural-chronic, structural-transient, and stochastic-transient poverty. The findings show that most households in our study areas are expected to be structurally-chronic and structurally-transient poor. This underlines the importance of asset formation for long-term poverty reduction strategies. Further refinements are possible with longitudinal data and information about future states of nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construct of the 'feminisation of poverty' has helped to give gender an increasingly prominent place within international discourses on poverty and poverty reduction. Yet the way in which gender has been incorporated pragmatically - predominantly through the 'feminisation' of anti-poverty programmes - has rarely relieved women of the onus of coping with poverty in their households, and has sometimes exacerbated their burdens. In order to explore how and why this is the case, as well as to sharpen the methodological and conceptual parameters of the 'feminisation of poverty' thesis, this paper examines four main questions. First, what are the common understandings of the 'feminisation of poverty'? Second, what purposes have been served by the popularisation and adoption of this term? Third, what problems are there with the 'feminisation of poverty' analytically, and in respect of how the construct has been taken up and responded to in policy circles? Fourth, how do we make the 'feminisation of poverty' more relevant to women's lives - and empowerment - at the grassroots? Foremost among my conclusions is that since the main indications of feminisation relate to women's mounting responsibilities and obligations in household survival we need to re-orient the 'feminisation of poverty' thesis so that it better reflects inputs as well as incomes, and emphasises not only women's level or share of poverty but the burden of dealing with it. Another, related, conclusion is that just as much as women are often recruited into rank-and-file labour in anti-poverty programmes, 'co-responsibility' should not be a one-way process. This requires, inter alia, the more active support of men, employers and public institutions in domestic labour and unpaid care work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a methodology for adjusting measures of income and poverty for the risk faced by a household. The approach draws on the standard economic concept of risk aversion, and it is based on the intuition that households will prefer a steady stream of income to a variable one with the same mean. Relying on a Constant Relative Risk Aversion utility function, we use panel data for Argentina to compute risk-adjusted income and poverty measures. At the aggregate level, we find that taking risk into account substantially increases the poverty headcount. Moreover, a regression analysis suggests that many household characteristics are correlated not only with the average income of the household over time, but also with its variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the impact of drought on poverty dynamics in the South Wollo area of northeastern Ethiopia. Using both survey and anthropological/qualitative data covering a six-year period, the paper assesses which households were able to hold on to assets and recover from the 1999–2000 drought and which were not. It suggests that while the incidence of poverty changed very little during 1997 to 2003 despite the occurrence of a major drought, the fortunes of the poorest improved, but not enough to keep them from poverty. The study concludes by asking how current policies affect patterns of poverty and inequality and what might be done to improve welfare in South Wollo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inequality matters for poverty reduction. However, it is often unclear what policy could do to change the distribution of income as to date there is little quantitative evidence about the household characteristics that determine the level of income inequality and its changes over time. This paper sets out to identify these determinants by adapting a regression-based inequality decomposition technique and applying it to panel data from rural Pakistan. Land ownership is key to explaining the level of inequality, but not its changes. In contrast, higher education drives changes, but not the level of inequality. Household location affects both, reflecting growing differences in market access across regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing attention is now being paid to poverty dynamics in developing countries. This work links the extent to which households smooth consumption or smooth assets given income shocks, the empirical evidence on the churning of households in and out of poverty, and the possibility that temporary shocks can have permanent consequences. Using longitudinal data from rural Zimbabwe, this paper extends the discussion of these issues by disaggregating the impact of shocks by levels of asset holdings, by disaggregating the impact of shocks on individual level welfare and by assessing the extent to which such shocks have permanent consequences. By doing so, it assesses the validity of distinguishing between asset and consumption smoothing and provides insights into whether poverty dynamics assessed at the household level provide an adequate picture of dynamics at the individual level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using propensity score matching, this study examines the effects of migration on various indicators of household wellbeing in Cambodia. The results indicate that migration would reduce poverty headcount rate by 3–7 percentage points and decrease the depth of poverty. Migration is also found to reduce by 5–10 per cent the hours worked by members left-behind. The impact of migration on labour participation may be, however, vulnerable to unobservable factors. Nevertheless, the study suggests that important heterogeneous effects which differ from the average impact exist. The analysis is conducted separately by internal and international migration. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this study, we analyse geo-coded climate data matched with two rounds of household surveys from Mauritania to compare the impact of the 2008 and 2014 droughts on rural households' welfare and the adaptation strategies they employed. The 2008 and 2014 droughts differ sharply in intensity. The 2008 drought was localised with about 45% rural households reporting loss of livestock. In contrast, the 2014 drought was the worst in a decade and affected nearly all parts of the country. We find that households living in the districts where the 2014 drought was at least one standard deviation more intense relative to the district's long-term precipitation average have an 11.9% lower per capita consumption and 8.9% higher likelihood of falling below the poverty line compared to households which faced less-intense drought. We observe no such welfare losses during the 2008 drought. Change in household asset portfolio sheds light on these findings: Household wealth fell during both periods of drought, implying that farm households attempted to maintain consumption by liquidating assets, especially livestock. However, ownership of small ruminants grew, suggesting a greater reliance on more drought-resistant livestock species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We empirically investigate whether participation in the Indian Self Help Group (SHG) microfinance programme has helped reduced poverty and household vulnerability using cross-sectional SHG rural household survey data. The potential selection bias is eliminated by propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment on treated effect using nearest neighbour matching and a local linear regression algorithm. We find that vulnerability in SHG members is not significantly higher than in non-SHG members, even though the SHG members have a high incidence of poverty. However, vulnerability declines significantly for those that have been SHG members for more than one year. These results are found to be robust using sensitivity analysis and the Rosenbaum bounds method. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this study we use household panel data collected in Marsabit district of Northern Kenya, to analyse the patterns of livelihood sources and poverty among pastoralists in that area. We estimate income poverty using imputed household income relative to the adjusted poverty line and asset poverty using a regression-based asset index and tropical livestock units (TLU) per capita. Our results indicate that keeping livestock is still the pastoralists’ main source of livelihood, although there is a notable trend of increasing livelihood diversification, especially among livestock-poor households. The majority of households (over 70%) are both income and livestock-poor with few having escaped poverty within the five-year study period. Disaggregating income and asset poverty also reveals an increasing trend of both structurally poor and stochastically nonpoor households. The findings show that the TLU-based asset poverty is a more appropriate measure of asset poverty in a pastoral setting. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Identifying household-level welfare dynamics and associated dynamic poverty trap thresholds can have important implications for the targeting of poverty reduction policies. The small existing empirical microeconomic literature has found evidence both for and against poverty traps. Using household panel data from rural Pakistan and Ethiopia, this article examines whether these different results are likely driven by differences in estimation methods or whether they reflect actual differences across settings. It applies the estimation methods from the existing literature to the same two datasets and also proposes a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of the previous fully parametric and nonparametric approaches. The results suggest that absent any dynamic poverty trap thresholds the effect of using different estimation methods is secondary, having a small influence on the estimated long-term level of household well-being but not the identification of multiple dynamic welfare equilibria and associated dynamic poverty thresholds. Households in rural Pakistan and Ethiopia seem to be stuck in a static, structural-type poverty trap facing an expected level of long-term well-being that places them squarely in poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Based on qualitative fieldwork, this study analyses reasons and outcomes of fishers’ migration in Bangladesh. The results show that fishers’ livelihoods are characterised by a series of vulnerabilities and endemic poverty contributing to their migration decisions. However, fishers also migrate pro-actively to enhance their capacities and explore opportunities. The outcomes of migration are highly diverging: while for poorer fishers, migration is a way of coping with shocks, better resourced fishers can use it for asset accumulation. The importance of migration for their livelihoods and emerging networks across space generate forms of translocal households that coordinate their activities over long distances. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We estimate the effects of mobile phone coverage on different measures of economic development. We exploit the timing of mobile coverage at the village level merging it with a village-level panel dataset for rural Peru. The main findings suggest that mobile phone expansion has increased household real consumption by 11 per cent, reduced poverty incidence by 8 percentage points and decreased extreme poverty by 5.4 percentage points. Moreover, those benefits appear to be shared by all covered households regardless of mobile ownership. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This article evaluates the impact of adoption of improved pigeonpea technologies on consumption expenditure and poverty status using cross-sectional data of 613 households from rural Tanzania. Using multiple econometric techniques, we found that adopting improved pigeonpea significantly increases consumption expenditure and reduces poverty. This confirms the potential role of technology adoption in improving household welfare as higher incomes translate into lower poverty. This study supports broader investment in agriculture research to address vital development challenges. Reaching the poor with better technologies however requires policy support for improving extension efforts, access to seeds and market outlets that stimulate adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The impacts of an innovative programme in rural Bangladesh, which has assisted extremely poor households, literally the poorest of the poor, were assessed over a six-year period (2002–2008). The provision of a substantial dose of assets has helped produce very positive results, by and large. Vulnerability to downturns on account of negative events, such as illnesses and house damage, has resulted in asset losses for several assisted households. Additional measures that reduce vulnerability and risk will help complete the good work commenced by the asset transfer plan. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We study the impact of work taboos (fady days) on agriculture and poverty. Using cross-sectional data from a national household survey for Madagascar, we find that 18 per cent of agricultural households have two or more fady days per week and that an extra fady day is associated with 6 per cent lower per capita consumption and 5 per cent lower rice productivity. To address the possible endogeneity of fady days, we present instrumental variable estimates and heterogeneous effect regressions using village fixed effects. We find that smaller households and those with less education employ less labour in villages with more fady days. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Using data from a customised household survey in Tonga we assess the responsiveness of migrants' remittances to perceived needs of recipients. We extend a mixed-motives model, incorporating subjectively-assessed recipient welfare. We find evidence supportive of altruism for households below a subjective threshold, implying that remittances provide important social protection for the poor. We also find a positive relationship for those above the threshold implying that welfare improvements in migrant-sending countries could increase or decrease remittance flows depending on pre-transfer welfare level. The effects of remittances on poverty alleviation and income distribution are hence more complex and ambiguous than previous studies suggest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transitional economies of the Former Soviet Union have enjoyed an extraordinary period of growth and poverty reduction between 2000 and 2007 and this occurred in concomitance with significant increases in private and public transfers to households. The article assesses the relative importance of these transfers for welfare and poverty in Moldova, the poorest country in Europe. A longitudinal analysis based on panel data reveals that private transfers and social insurance transfers are effective in improving welfare and reducing poverty whereas social assistance transfers have little or no effect. Social insurance and social assistance seem to have swapped roles. Social insurance is most relevant for lifting people out of poverty while social assistance - if anything - has a small role in protecting the non-poor from falling into poverty. We also find that the different types of transfers do not crowd-out each other and that social insurance may in fact reinforce the capacity of private transfers to reduce poverty. Such findings have several policy implications for the near future: (a) poor households in Former Soviet Union transitional economies remain highly vulnerable to shocks in public and private transfers; (b) the 2008-2009 recession is likely to expose this vulnerability and result in a surge in poverty larger than expected; and (c) the social assistance systems remain in great need of pro-poor reforms and cannot currently provide an adequate protection from economic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reporting the results of a novel survey of shocks, coping, outcomes, and safety nets in Pakistan, we find high incidence and cost of shocks borne by households, with health and other idiosyncratic shocks dominating in frequency, costliness, and adversity. Sample households lack effective coping options and use mostly self-insurance and informal credit. Many shocks result in food insecurity, informal debts, child and bonded labour, and recovery is slow. Private and public social safety nets exist but offer little effective protection. Public action is needed to better control public health hazards and provide non-exploitative credit and more effective safety nets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A household survey conducted in rural Zimbabwe in 2001 is used to compare the position of de facto and de jure female-headed households to those with a male head. These households are characterised by different forms of poverty that impinge on their ability to improve agricultural productivity. However, once inputs are accounted for, it is only for growing cotton that female-headed households' productivity is lower than that found for male-headed households. General poverty alleviation policies will benefit the female-headed household but specific interventions via extension services and access to marketing consortia are also indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twenty-four per cent of households in 36 village communities of Central and Western Uganda have escaped from poverty over the past 25 years, but another 15 per cent have simultaneously fallen into poverty. A roughly equal number of households escaped from poverty in the first period (ten to 25 years ago) as in the second period (the last ten years) examined here. However, almost twice as many households fell into poverty during the second period as in the first period. Progress in poverty reduction has slowed down as a result. Multiple causes are associated with descent into poverty and these causes vary significantly between villages in the two different regions. For nearly two-thirds of all households in both regions, however, ill health and health-related costs were a principal reason for descent into poverty. Escaping poverty is also associated with diverse causes, which vary across the two regions. Compared to increases in urban employment, however, land-related reasons have been more important for escaping poverty in both regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite high growth rates in Gujarat, exceeding 9 per cent per year over the decade of the 1990s, poverty in 36 villages located in the northeastern part of this state has changed hardly at all. In these villages, 9.5 per cent of households escaped from poverty over the past 25 years, but 6.3 per cent of households became poor at the same time. Escape and descent are not symmetric: different reasons account for escaping poverty than those for declining into poverty. Growth alone is hardly sufficient to achieve poverty reduction on any significant scale. Public policies will be needed to address directly the separate causes for descent into poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses household income mobility among Africans in South Africa's most populous province, KwaZulu-Natal, between 1993 and 1998. Compared to industrialised and most developing countries, mobility has been quite high, as might have been expected after the transition in South Africa. This finding is robust when measurement error is controlled for. When disaggregating the sources of mobility, it is found that demographic changes and employment changes account for most of the mobility observed which is related to rapidly shifting household boundaries and a very volatile labour market in an environment of high unemployment. Using a multivariate analysis, it can be seen that transitory incomes play a large role. Four types of poverty traps are found, associated with large initial household size, poor initial education, poor initial asset endowment and poor initial employment access that dominate the otherwise observed regression towards the mean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]