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Purpose: In this paper, the authors investigate whether coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) impacts household finances, like household debt repayments in the UK. Design/methodology/approach: This paper employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model that nests neural networks and uses Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) techniques. The authors use data information related to COVID-19, financial markets and household finances. Findings: The authors' results show that household debt repayments' response to the first principal component of COVID-19 shocks is negative, albeit of low magnitude. However, when the authors employ specific COVID-19-related data like vaccines and tests the responses are positive, insinuating the underlying dynamic complexities. Overall, confirmed deaths and hospitalisations negatively affect household debt repayments. The authors also report low persistence in household debt repayments. Generalised impulse response functions (IRFs) confirm the main results. As draconian measures, the lockdowns are eased and the COVID-19 shocks are diminishing, and household financial data converge to the levels prior to the pandemic albeit with some lags. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of the pandemic on household debt repayments. The authors' findings show that policy response in the future should prioritise innovation of new vaccines and testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to assess the economic impact of uniform COVID-controlling policies that were implemented by the US government in 2020 and compare it with hypothetical targeted policies that consider the heterogenous effect of COVID-19 on different age groups. Design/methodology/approach: The author began by showing that the adjusted SEQIHR model is a good fit to the US COVID-induced daily death data in that it can capture the nonlinearities of the data very well. Then, he used this model with extra parameters to evaluate the economic effects of COVID-19 through its impact on the job market. Findings: The results show that targeted COVID-controlling policies could reduce the US death rate and GDP loss to 0.03% and 2%, respectively. By comparing these results with uniform COVID-controlling policies, which led to a 0.1% death rate and 3.5% GDP loss, we could conclude that the death rate reduction is 0.07%. Approximately 378,000 Americans died because of COVID-19 during 2020, therefore, reducing the death rate to 0.03% means saving a significant proportion of the COVID-19 casualties, around 280,000 lives. Originality/value: To the best of the author's knowledge, this paper is the first study to assess the economic impacts of COVID-controlling policies by using the multirisk SEQIHR model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The COVID-19 pandemic is known to have affected the logistics and supply chains; however, there is no adequate empirical evidence to prove in which way it has affected the relationship between the stocks related to this field with the corresponding cryptocurrencies. This paper aims to test the dynamic relationship of cryptocurrencies with supply chain and logistics stocks. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, the author tests the causal and long-run relationship between logistics and supply chain stocks with the corresponding cryptocurrencies related to these fields, or those that are known to exhibit characteristics that can be utilized by these fields, testing also whether the COVID-19 pandemic affected this relationship. To do so, the author performs the variable-lag causality to test the causal relationship, and examines if this relationship changed due to COVID-19. The author then implements the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis to investigate the characteristics of a possible long-run relationship, testing also whether they changed due to COVID-19. Findings: The results indicate that there is a positive long-run relationship between each logistics and supply chain stocks and the corresponding cryptocurrencies, before and also during COVID-19, but during COVID-19 this relationship becomes weaker, in most cases. Moreover, before COVID-19, the majority of the cases indicate a causal direction from cryptocurrencies to the stocks, while during COVID-19, the causal relationships decrease in multitude, and most cases unveil a causal direction from the stocks to cryptocurrencies. Originality/value: The causal pattern changed during COVID-19, and the long-run relationship became weaker, showing a change in the dynamics in the relationship between logistics and supply chain stocks with cryptocurrencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper investigates nonlinearities in the relationship between mobility and COVID-19 cases or deaths based on demographic or socioeconomic characteristics, with a special focus on income and poverty. Design/methodology/approach: The formal analysis is achieved by using county-level daily data from the US, where a difference-in-difference design is employed. Nonlinearities in the relationship between mobility and COVID-19 cases or deaths are investigated by regressing weekly percentage changes in COVID-19 cases or deaths on mobility measures, where county fixed effects and daily fixed effects are controlled for. The main innovation is achieved by distinguishing between the coefficients in front of mobility measures across US counties based on their demographic or socioeconomic characteristics. Findings: The results suggest that the positive effects of mobility on COVID-19 cases increase with poverty, per capita income, commuting time or population, whereas they decrease with health insurance or grandparents responsible for grandchildren. Originality/value: Important policy implications follow regarding where mobility restrictions would work better to fight against COVID-19 through targeted lockdowns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The study focuses on examining the impact of the supply shock on the Indian macroeconomic variables during the COVID-19 period. Design/methodology/approach: Time-varying factor augmented vector autoregressive model has been employed to study the asymmetry in transmission of supply shock on Indian economy during pre- and post-COVID-19 times. Findings: The authors find that with supply shock, retail food inflation outpaced in COVID-19 times. Production levels reported by IIP fell to abysmally low levels in the post-COVID-19 times when the economy stalled. The liquidity stimulus provided by the central bank led to the negative response of policy rates to the supply shocks during the COVID-19 times. Originality/value: The study stands novel in examining the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Indian economy through the lenses of asymmetric transmission of supply shock during pre- and post-COVID-19 times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Using textual analysis the authors study the relationship between social media sentiments and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The study analysis is based on a sample of 1,616,007 tweets over the period January to June 2021 for seven countries. The authors process the tweets via the VADER analyzer thereby producing both positive and negative sentiment measures. Findings: Particularly, the authors prove that higher positivism is associated with a short-term increase in stock prices. On the other side, negativism relates inversely to stock prices with long-term impact, in the case of English-spoken countries. Notably, the study results remain robust to the inclusion of various control variables, including virtual fear and Google vaccine indexes. Finally, the authors prove that positivism is associated with higher returns and lower volatility in the short-run, while negativism is linked with lower returns in the short run. Practical implications: The study analysis also has significant policy implications for researchers, investors and policymakers. First, researchers can employ our measures to quantify market sentiments and expand their research arsenal to incorporate social media trends, thus providing better explanatory power. Second, during times of severe uncertainty such as in a pandemic period, investors could beneficially take into account our textual measures and empirical results when using asset pricing models or constructing their portfolios. Third, the finding that the stock market is heavily governed by sentimental behaviors, especially during crisis periods, implies that policymakers including central banks, governments and capital market commissions must consider these sentiments before exerting their policies. In this regard, governments can effectively develop policy tools and approaches to manage recovery from the pandemic, which translates to greater long-term economic resilience. Moreover, central banks should accordingly adjust their monetary policy measures in order to stabilize financial markets, and by extension, to stop the pandemic from turning into a renewed financial crisis. For example, asset purchase program is considered the main instrument of this kind of intervention. Originality/value: The authors confirm that this work is original and has not been published elsewhere, nor is it currently under consideration for publication elsewhere. The paper should be of interest to readers in the areas of finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Following the COVID-19 outbreak, there are concerns whether economies are becoming farther from equality and competency. While this matters to every economy, it is more crucial for developing ones who already suffer from income inequalities and lack of competency. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses an administrative data from the Iran's Social Security Organization (ISSO) that provides insurance to workers entitled to the Labor Law of Iran. The data contain more than 7,000,000 workers. The authors assess heterogeneous impact of the first wave of the pandemic by firms' size and average payment. Findings: The authors' estimation results indicate that, following the initiation of the pandemic, the workers whose corresponding firms are smaller, overall, are more prone to the pandemic and are more likely to submit a request for unemployment benefits. However, the relation is neither homogeneous across sectors nor linear among micro-sized firms. Few sectors indicate a positive relationship between size and likelihood of request submission, including cultural activity, shoemaking and clothing sectors. Besides the size, the authors investigate whether pay grades could explain the probability of becoming unemployed after the pandemic. Results show that workers whose corresponding firms pay less are more likely to submit a request. This is robust within different sectors. Research limitations/implications: The ISSO dataset is not a panel, so the authors cannot employ methods of causal inferences. The authors' results should be seen as correlation; however, due to exogeneity and sharpness of the pandemic the result infers to some degree of causality. The data does not cover the informal sector, so the estimates are at lower boundary. Originality/value: Administrative data on unemployment benefits during COVID-19 show that the pandemic interferes with competition by forcing low-paid workers and small firms to exit the market. This is an alarm for the competition in every economy, specially developing ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: By combining econometrics and multifractal methods, utilizing a financial framework, this paper will examine with objectivity the economic, financial and social impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on society. Design/methodology/approach: Through Granger causality, the authors test the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on excessive gaming and gambling activities, and through econometrics and multifractal methods, they combine the results to analyze a possible long-run relationship. Findings: The COVID-19 confirmed cases Granger cause all examined stocks. Based on the co-integration technique, and the multifractal cross-correlation analysis, a long-run relationship exists between all examined stocks and COVID-19. Originality/value: This is an empirical examination of a very important subject in the field of economics, namely, the consequences of the COVID-19-related events on the behavior of global citizens. It proposes a different and more objective approach (than the interviews and questionnaires) in the examination of this specific subject, through a financial framework, depicting the stock performance of the gaming and online gambling-related companies, and reflecting on the activity of these companies. It combines two different approaches from two different disciplines, namely econometrics and multifractal analysis, to test and describe the causal and the long-run relationship between the phenomena examined, combining the results to an overall and multidimensional view of this occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to assess whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has encouraged governments to take actions towards fostering digital means of payments and financial transactions to stimulate economic activities and achieve higher financial inclusion. Design/methodology/approach: Using a logit model, this paper tests the impact of the level of income and GDP per capita, government effectiveness, digital adoption, number of commercial banks and the pandemic-related closure of business and stores due to full lockdowns on governments' policy response regarding digital means of payments. Findings: The author finds that low- and lower-middle-income countries had significantly responded to the surged need for digital means of payment during the pandemic compared to the upper-middle-income and high-income countries. The author also finds that government effectiveness and the number of commercial banks were predictors of government policy response, while the full lockdown of countries and the overall digital adoption were not. Research limitations/implications: Data of the post-COVID-19 pandemic are limited, and the sample size is small. Originality/value: This is the first paper to empirically model governments' response during the pandemic to promote digital means of payments. This paper gives insight into post-crisis potential changes in digital payment adoption in the upcoming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented shock to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economy and their financial markets have plummeted significantly due to it. This paper adds to the recent literature on contagion due to spillover by uniquely examining the presence of pairwise contagion or volatility transmissions in stock markets returns of India, Brazil, Russia, China and USA prior to and during COVID-19 pandemic period. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) by Bollerslev (1986) under diagonal parameterization is used to estimate multivariate GARCH framework also known as BEKK (Baba EngleKraft and Kroner) model on stock market returns of BRIC nations and the US. Findings: The empirical results show that the model captures the volatility spillovers and display statistical significance for own past mean and volatility with both short- and long-run persistence effects. Own volatility spillovers (Heatwave phenomenon) have been found to be highest for the US, China and Brazil compared to Russia and India. The coefficients indicate persistence of volatility for each country in terms of its own past errors. The highest and long-term spillover effect is found between US and Russia. The results recommend that Russia is least vulnerable to outside shocks. Finally after examining the pairwise results, it is suggested that the BRIC countries stock indices have exhibited volatility spillover due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Research limitations/implications: The study may be extended to include other emerging market economies under a dynamic framework. Practical implications: Researchers and policymakers may draw useful insights on cross-market interdependencies regarding the spillovers in BRIC countries' stock markets. It also helps design international portfolio diversification strategies and in constructing optimal portfolios during COVID and in a post-COVID world. Originality/value: COVID-19 has been an improbable event in the history of the world which can have a large impact on the financial economies across the emerging countries. This event can be deemed to be informative enough to measure the co-movements of the equity markets amongst cross-country return series, which has not been investigated so far for BRIC nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Living a nutritious lifestyle requires that people get a sufficient amount of nutrients, vitamins and minerals every day. Healthy dietary practices are related to a stronger immune system, better prevention and easier recovery from illnesses, lower blood pressure, healthy weight, lower risk of diabetes, heart problems and other medical conditions and improved overall well-being (WHO, 2020). Therefore, to maintain a strong immune system able to prevent diseases and ease recovery, optimal nutrition and healthy habits are of increased importance during a pandemic such as Covid-19. However, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 22 million Americans have lost a job between February and October 2020, increasing the unemployment rate from 3.5% in February 2020 to 6.9% in October 2020, reaching a peak of 14.7% in April 2020. Job losses during the Covid-19 crisis are likely to put lots of families at risk of malnutrition and food insufficiency and to further deteriorate the already existing food insecurity (Gundersen et al., 2018). This research explores the effect of a recent job loss between August and October 2020 on food sufficiency. Design/methodology/approach: This research examines the impact of a job loss on nutrition and food safety. Specifically, this study explores the effect of a job loss during the Covid-19 pandemic on the level of family and child food sufficiency as perceived by the respondent, confidence about meeting family's dietary needs in the four weeks following the interview, and an indicator of whether the food sufficiency status of the family has deteriorated or not. This study also determines the differential effect of a job loss by individuals who are still employed despite the loss relative to workers who remained unemployed after a job loss during the Covid-19 crisis. Subsample analyses based on ethnicities, genders and educational attainment are also performed to identify the most vulnerable groups. Findings: The results provide evidence that a job loss is associated with a highly statistically significant deterioration of food sufficiency for families and children and a reduction in the confidence in food security for the near future. This effect is observed for all job losers, but from them, it is larger for the ones who are currently unemployed compared to those who are working. The association between a job loss and family's nutrition insecurity is the greatest for Hispanic, males and people with some college. Children's nutrition suffers the most for children whose parents have not completed high school. These results provide an insight into the adverse effect of Covid-19 on food security. Practical implications: From a policy perspective, the results indicate that federal nutrition programs whose goal is to ensure that the dietary needs of Americans, and especially children, are met, which are most likely to benefit the Hispanic population, individuals with low educational attainment and individuals who remained unemployed after losing a job. Originality/value: This study makes several contributions to the growing literature on food security. First, this study is novel in that it examines the effect of an ongoing event, specifically a labor market disruption as a result of a health and economic crisis, on families' nutrition, and does so using the newest publicly available data designed to track the impact of Covid-19 on the American population. This is one of the first studies that investigates the forementioned impacts in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. This study further contributes to the literature by distinguishing between employed versus unemployed individuals despite a job loss and by studying distinct groups on the population. In addition, this study compares the effects of interest in the onset of the pandemic to a year later to examine the population's adjustment to the crisis. The importance and relevance of the results for policy decision-making are also discussed in the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors examine the short-term stock market reaction surrounding US layoffs during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period. The authors' specific interest is on any changes that may be observed in US stock markets during the COVID-19 outbreak. This information will help us assess the extent to which policymakers adopted at time revenue and expenditures measures to minimize its negative impact. Design/methodology/approach: The authors study the linkage between layoffs announced by firms and stock markets in US for the COVID-19 period between March 2020 and October 2020. This period shows important economic figures; a huge number of job cuts announced by blue-chip companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) due to widespread economic shutdowns. The authors examine whether and to what extent stock markets in US have reacted to layoff announcements during the COVID-19 pandemic using an event-study methodology. Findings: The study's results show that US layoffs during the pandemic did not cause any abnormalities on the stock returns, either positive or negative. Based on the mean-adjusted volume, the authors find that layoffs increase the stocks' trading volume, especially on the event date and the day following the event. US stocks become more volatile on the days following the event. Interestingly, on the event date, the authors find that stocks get the highest abnormal volatility; however, the result is statistically insignificant. Practical implications: The authors suggest that layoffs announcements follow the business cycle quite closely in most industries. The study's results have implications for investors, regulators and policymakers as they permit to examine the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Social implications: The study's results show that policymakers reduced uncertainty implementing intensive measures quickly and should follow similar policy in the future pandemic and/or unexpected events. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the literature in two directions: First, to the best of the authors' knowledge this is the first study that provides empirical evidence and assesses the extent to which a major global shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic may have altered the reaction of US stock markets to layoff announcements. Second, this is the first study on this topic that examines volume and volatility abnormalities, while the authors check the robustness of the findings with different methods to calculate abnormal returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This research explores the impact of parental educational attainment, race, ethnicity, gender and employment on the time parents spend educating their children during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: School closures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 have affected billions of students worldwide, and have had an impact on the economy and the society. With classes being cancelled or taught remotely, the importance of parental intervention in children's education has accelerated. Findings: The authors find that more educated parents allocate more time on child education, while higher income and employment have an adverse effect. Fathers are likely to spend more time than mothers in teaching and educating their children during COVID-19. Practical implications: The findings have implications in identifying children whose education suffers the most in times of a pandemic and determining the main target group of policies designed to train children, encourage parental involvement and support children's educational development. Originality/value: This is the first paper that examines the variations in parental time with children across social and economic subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors also focus on the time parents spend educating their children rather than just supervising them. The authors additionally examine the determinants of the time children study on their own. Finally, the analysis is novel because it is based on the newest available data collected to examine the trends and experiences of individuals in the United States triggered by COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors investigate the effect of weather and mobility on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: The authors first estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) as a proxy of the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and then study the relationship between the latter and weather and mobility in a panel data framework. The authors use US daily infections data between February and September of 2020 at the county level. Findings: The authors find that lower temperatures are associated with a higher Rt, and this effect is greater at temperatures below 0°C. In addition, mobility reductions related to certain types of locations (retail and recreation, transit stations and workplaces) are effective at reducing Rt, but it is an increase in the time spent in parks that most helps reduce the spread of the pandemic. Originality/value: The estimates imply that a 20°C fall in temperature from summer to winter would increase Rt by +0.35, which can be the difference between a well-controlled evolution and explosive behavior of the spread of the virus. Applying these coefficients estimated with US county data to aggregate series from other countries helps explain the resurgence of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter of 2020. The results show that mobility reduction and social distance are best policies to cope with the Covid-19 outbreak. This strong policy lesson will help facing similar outbreaks in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Design/methodology/approach: The study utilizes the "dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)" approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022. Findings: The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war. Research limitations/implications: It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover. Originality/value: The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This research examines the impact of lockdown stringency measures and COVID-19 cases on food and healthcare prices in six Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey (BRICST) countries. This research is conducted in these countries since previous studies failed to examine the effect of COVID-19 reported cases on food and healthcare prices. Design/methodology/approach: To achieve the objectives of this study, food and healthcare services were regressed against CVC and lockdown stringency measures using the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) model. For this purpose, we used daily data for BRICST countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey. Findings: The empirical evidence indicates that, in the long run, COVID-19 cases significantly and positively affect both food and healthcare prices in India, South Africa and China. In contrast, in the short run, COVID-19 positively affects food and healthcare prices in all countries except Russia and Turkey. Similarly, in the long run, the government stringency index (GSI) and Containment and Health Index (CHI) significantly affect health prices in India and South Africa. In contrast, GSI and CHI significantly affect healthcare prices in South Africa only in the short run. Finally, GSI and CHI significantly affect the food prices in the long run in India, South Africa and China and in the short run in South Africa only. Originality/value: The widespread impact of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) has made the world panic. COVID-19 affected all spheres of life, including food supplies and healthcare services. However, most of the empirical research failed to examine the impact of COVID-19 cases on food and healthcare prices which is the main focus of this study. Moreover, in the given context, the authors use a recently developed model that the previous studies failed to use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study examines the effects of COVID-19 on trade, production and environmental quality and provides policy implications on green recovery. Design/methodology/approach: The two-step Heckman method is applied to estimate the structural gravity specification of trade. Besides, the two-step system GMM model is used to estimate the effects of COVID-19 on production and environmental quality. Additionally, descriptive analysis and literature review have been used. Findings: The findings disclose that COVID-19 adversely affected the trade performance of the countries. The results further imply that the regional trade agreements (RTAs) can play a key mediating role in the post-COVID-19 trade recovery. Besides, the impact of COVID-19 on the output is substantially negative. However, the effect of COVID-19 on environmental quality is significantly positive. Originality/value: It is the first study of its kind to examine the effects of COVID-19 on trade, production and CO2 emissions covering panel countries. Second, it provides a detailed analysis of firms planning to engage in the export sector. Moreover, it offers policy suggestions to consider environmental quality and green recovery. Besides, it examines the mediating role of RTAs in the relationship between trade and the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on daily stock returns for the six major affected WHO Regions, namely: Africa, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses an event study method and panel-data regression models to examine the effect of the daily increase in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases on daily stock returns from 1 March to 1 August 2020 for the leading stock market in major affected countries in the WHO regions. Findings: The results reveal an adverse impact of the daily increasing number of COVID-19 cases on stock returns and stock markets fell quickly in response to the pandemic. The findings also suggest that negative market reaction was strong during the early stage of the outbreak between the 26th and 35th days after the initial confirmed cases. We further find that stock markets in the Western Pacific region experienced more negative abnormal returns as compared to other regions. The results also confirm that feelings of fear among investors turned out to be a mediator and a transmission channel for the effect of COVID-19 outbreak on the stock markets. Research limitations/implications: This study contributes to financial literature in two ways. First, we contribute to existing literature that has examined the effect of various catastrophes and crises on the stock markets Second, we contribute to the recent emerging literature that examines the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets. Practical implications: The study may have implications for policymakers to deal with this outbreak without triggering uncertainty in stock markets and reassure investors' confidence. The study may also be of interest to investors, managers, financial analysts by revealing how the stock markets quickly respond to outbreaks. Originality/value: This study is the first study to examine the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the leading stock markets of the WHO regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to examine the role of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test on transmission data globally to reveal the fact that the actual picture of transmission history cannot be exposed if the countries do not perform the test adequately. Design/methodology/approach: Using Our World in Data for 212 countries and areas and 162 time periods daily from December 31, 2019, to June 09, 2020, on an unbalanced panel framework, we have developed a panel-based path analysis model to explore the interdependence of various actors of COVID-19 cases of transmission across the globe. After controlling for per capita gross domestic product (GDP), age structure and government stringency, we explore the proposition that COVID-19 tests affect transmission positively. As an anecdote, we also explore the direct, indirect and total effects of different potential determinants of transmission cases worldwide and gather an idea about each factor's relative role in a structural equation framework. Findings: Using the panel path model, we find that a 1 standard deviation change in the number of tests results in a 0.70 standard deviation change in total cases per million after controlling for several variables like per capita GDP, government stringency and age population (above 65). Research limitations/implications: It is not possible to get balanced data of COVID-19 for all the countries for all the periods. Similarly, the socioeconomic, political and demographic variables used in the model are not observed daily, and they are only available on an annual basis. Practical implications: Countries which cannot afford to carry out more tests are also the countries where transmission rates are suppressed downward and negatively manipulated. Social implications: Cross country collaboration in terms of COVID-19 test instruments, vaccination and technology transfer are urgently required. This collaboration may be sought as an alternative to foreign development assistance. Originality/value: This article provides an alternative approach to modeling COVID-19 transmission through the panel path model where the test is considered as an endogenous determinant of transmission, and the endogeneity has been channeled through per capita GDP, government stringency and age structure without using any regression-based modeling like pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed-effects, two-stage least squares or generalized method of moments (GMM). Endogeneity has been handled without using any instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study explores the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak and its following lockdown on daily stock returns in Vietnam, a fast-growing emerging market that successfully revived after the pandemic lockdown. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses panel-data regression models to evaluate the influence of the daily increase in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases during pre-lockdown and lockdown on daily stock returns of 723 listed firms in Vietnam from 30 January to 30 May 2020. Findings: The study confirms the adverse impact of the daily increasing number of COVID-19 cases on stock returns in Vietnam. The study also discloses that the Vietnam stock market before and during the nationwide lockdown performed in opposing ways. Though COVID-19 pre-lockdown had a significant, negative impact on Vietnam's stock returns, the lockdown period had a significant, positive influence on stock performance of the entire market and the different business sectors in Vietnam. The financial sector was hardest hit on the Vietnam stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak. Research limitations/implications: The study indicates investors' confidence and trust in the Vietnam government's decisions to combat COVID-19 and favorable stocks prices were the main reasons that the Vietnam stock market rebounded during and after lockdown. Originality/value: This is the first study to examine the impact of COVID-19 during the pre-lockdown and lockdown periods on stock performance in Vietnam, a rapidly developing economy that was successful in controlling the pandemic with a rejuvenated stock market after lockdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]