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Several countries have imposed either a ban or a tax on single-use plastic packaging, motivated by their contribution to marine plastic pollution. This may lead consumers to opt for similar unregulated substitutes, potentially undermining or even counteracting the intended effect of the policy instrument. The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically compare the environmental and welfare effects of the first-best Pigouvian taxes on both plastic bags and a substitute (paper bags), with two alternative second-best policy instruments: a tax on plastic products alone, and a common uniform tax on all packaging materials. The empirical analysis accounts for two different types of environmental externalities from the use of both bag types: marine pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. It also compares results for two countries, Denmark and the USA, which differ in the demand for plastic and paper bags. The theoretical analysis shows that a unilateral tax on plastic bags should equal the marginal environmental damage of plastic bags minus a fraction of the marginal environmental cost of paper bags, hence being lower than the Pigouvian tax. The optimal common tax should equal a weighted average of the marginal environmental damage of the two bag types and would be lower than the Pigouvian tax on plastics if the marginal external cost of plastic bags exceeds that for paper bags. The empirical analysis shows that for default parameters, the variation in tax level across the studied scenarios is small. It also shows that if Pigouvian taxes cannot be implemented, a common uniform tax on both bag types would result in a higher welfare gain than a tax on plastic bags alone. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the level of the second-best taxes and their associated environmental and welfare impacts are sensitive to assumptions regarding the littering rate and decay rate of plastic bags in the marine environment. • A separate tax on plastic bags leads to substitution towards unregulated products. • Both plastic bags and substitutes cause marine pollution and GHG emissions. • We estimate first and second-best environmental taxes on plastic and paper bags. • Pigouvian taxes on both plastic and paper bags yield the highest welfare effect. • A uniform tax on all bags yields higher welfare than a single tax on plastic bags. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cement industry plays a significant role in global carbon emissions, underscoring the urgent need for measures to transition it toward a net-zero carbon footprint. This paper presents a detailed plan to this end, examining the current state of the cement sector, its carbon output, and the imperative for emission reduction. It delves into various low-CO 2 technologies and emerging innovations such as alkali-activated cements, calcium looping, electrification, and bio-inspired materials. Economic and policy factors, including cost assessments and governmental regulations, are considered alongside challenges and potential solutions. Concluding with future prospects, the paper offers recommendations for policymakers, industry players, and researchers, highlighting the roadmap's critical role in achieving a carbon-neutral cement sector. • Cement industry faces urgent need for net-zero transition due to high carbon emissions. • Roadmap spans phases: foundation, acceleration, net-zero, targeting emissions by 2050. • Innovations like alkali-activated cements offer promise for emission reduction. • Collective action and policy crucial for sustainable transformation of cement sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogeological effects of climate change will continue to affect water reservoirs worldwide. Some regions are experiencing and will experience severe decline in their water resources due to prolonged periods of drought. Since emergency practices such as the provision of emergency drinking water and forest firefighting depend on regional surface and groundwater resources, the safety of the hydro geosphere's of a region is of fundamental importance, especially in times of crisis. The study uniquely addresses the integration of emergency water management within broader sustainable practices, particularly in the German context where such an analysis has not been previously consolidated. Using the example of emergency drinking water management, the paper elaborates the extent to which measures of emergency response are currently recognised as part of sustainable water management. In an analysis, 79 documents addressing emergency drinking water management of both water supply companies and crisis management authorities in Germany were analysed. The findings revealed a general lack of documents addressing the long-term dependencies between water resources and emergency measures currently applied. Furthermore, the documents do not elaborate on how to implement these measures in a sustainable way recognising the distinctive characteristics of a region. Since response measures can potentially intensify water stress in a region, emergency water management must be consequently included in a holistic water management process to protect landscapes and communities for the future. This paper provides a first comprehensive compilation of essential documents dealing with emergency drinking water management in Germany. It furthermore introduces a new approach to emergency water management and identifies necessary research that could serve as a baseline for future crisis decision making to strengthen national and international initiatives on water resource protection. • Holistic water management must include water intense measures of emergency response. • Procedures of crisis management can intensify processes of regional water depletion. • Performance of emergency response can decline in times of long-term dryness. • The management of water emergencies requires adaptation to regional hydrogeography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean basin is one of the most vulnerable regions worldwide due to its population density, the concentration of economic activities along the coasts and borderline climatic balance. It is identified as one of the most critical erosion hotspots in Europe, mainly due to the degradation of coastal areas, overexploitation and unsustainable practices affecting beach tourism, agriculture and fishing. The region is also affected by other phenomena such as storms and floods, which are exacerbated by climate change. To mitigate and adapt to these environmental and climatic changes, Nature based Solutions (NbSs) are considered a promising step-forward. However, despite their global recognition in both research and policy, few scientific papers and documents on the state of NbSs implementation for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean exist. This paper aims to provide an understanding of the status of NbS adoption for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean through a literature review. Out of 162 scientific papers and documents, only 23 were found to be relevant to the study. Through the definition and support of an innovative matrix-based approach, the analysis of the state of adoption of NbSs have been performed. Despite the limited information on the state of the adoption of NbSs for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean due to the low numbers of scientific research and documents available, some key considerations have been revealed. • The Mediterranean basin is the most critical erosion hotspots in Europe. • NbSs are recognized a promising step-forward in coastal risk management. • Novel framework for the analysis of past and present NbS implementation. • Few studies report the adoption of NbSs for Mediterranean coastal risk management. • NbS for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean is still in an experimental phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change affects human activities, including tourism across various sectors and time frames. The winter tourism industry, dependent on low temperatures, faces significant impacts. This paper reviews the implications of climate change on winter tourism, emphasising challenges for activities like skiing and snowboarding, which rely on consistent snowfall and low temperatures. As the climate changes, these once taken-for-granted conditions are no longer as commonplace. Through a comprehensive review supported by up-to-date satellite imagery, this paper presents evidence suggesting that the reliability of winter snow is decreasing, with findings revealing a progressive reduction in snow levels associated with temperature and precipitation changes in some regions. The analysis underscores the need for concerted efforts by stakeholders who must recognize the reality of diminishing snow availability and work towards understanding the specific changes in snow patterns. This should involve multi-risk and multi-instrument assessments, including ongoing satellite data monitoring to track snow cover changes. The practical implications for sports activities and the tourism industry reliant on snow involve addressing challenges by diversifying offerings. This includes developing alternative winter tourism activities less dependent on snow, such as winter hiking, nature walks, or cultural experiences. [Display omitted] • Snow coverage in winter is projected to shrink due to climate change. • Low and inconsistent levels of snow will impact the winter tourism industry. • Besides being unsustainable, artificial snowmaking is a short-term solution. • To survive, the winter tourism industry must adapt to the changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigation actions in all sectors of society, including sports, to limit global warming have become an increasingly hot topic in public discussions and sports management. However, so far, there has been a lack of understanding and practical examples of how these organizations, especially in team sports, can holistically assess and reduce their climate impacts to achieve carbon neutrality. This paper presents a carbon footprint assessment, implemented actions for GHG emission reduction, and offers the example of a professional Finnish ice hockey team that achieved carbon neutrality. The study is based on a life cycle assessment method. The Results show that the team's carbon footprint was reduced from 350 tCO 2eq by more than 50% between seasons 2018–2019 and 2021–2022 in the assessed categories. The most GHG emission reductions were achieved in the team's and spectators' mobility and ice hall energy consumption. Furthermore, the team compensated for their remaining emissions to achieve carbon neutrality. Multiple possibilities for further GHG emission reductions were recognized. The majority of the GHG emissions were linked to the Scope 3 category, indicating that co-operation with partners and stakeholders was a key to success in attaining carbon neutrality. This paper also discusses the possible limitations and challenges that sport organizations face in assessing climate impacts and reducing GHG emissions, as well as the prospects of overcoming them. Since there are many opportunities for sports to contribute to climate change mitigation, relevant targets and actions to reduce GHG emissions should be integrated into all sport organizations' management. [Display omitted] • This the first assessment of professional ice hockey team's carbon footprint. • Multiple actions led to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. • Concludes how sport organizations can manage their environmental impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global context, countries must reduce carbon dioxide emissions to "net zero" by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. China's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060. To monitor the achievements of the NDCs, establishing an annual-based accounting mechanism is necessary to record the carbon stocks in China, especially for Blue Carbon. The paper aims to present China's first national-scale systematic Blue Carbon accounting for mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses, covering the accounting subjects of physical and monetary assets, as well as relevant indicators for investors. It focuses on the design of the accounting method and system, the selection of data categories applied to this system, and the application of China's Blue Carbon accounting based on this accounting system. Taking Blue Carbon accounting as a starting point, this paper analyses the restoration prospects of these ecosystems and their application potential for NDCs in China compared with the terrestrial ecosystems. The results indicate that mangroves are the most cost-effective type of ecosystem, even compared to terrestrial forests. Thus, the paper provides policymakers with a new perspective on the decision-making of carbon sequestration relevant decisions, aiming to promote the monitoring, restoration, and expansion of China's coastal blue carbon ecosystem through the establishment of a sound Blue Carbon accounting system, and to help achieve the carbon neutrality goal in China's NDCs through regular and systematic monitoring of its national Blue Carbon inventories. • China's coastal blue carbon ecosystems are carbon sources rather than carbon sinks. • Mangroves are the most cost-effective coastal blue carbon ecosystem compared to salt marshes and seagrass beds. • The Blue Carbon of mangroves is more cost-effective than the Green Carbon of terrestrial forests when meeting China's Nationally Determined Contributions target of increasing forest stocks. • Establishing guidelines for Blue Carbon data requirements will lay a scientific foundation for formulating strategies and policies to cope with global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change exhibits a clear trend of escalating frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing heightened risks to drainage systems along the existing road networks. However, very few studies to date have investigated the consequences of projected future changes in rainfall on main road drainage and the resulting risk of road flooding. The work presented in this paper builds on the limited research by introducing a probabilistic model for assessing the impact of climate change on road drainage systems, incorporating climate uncertainty and drainage system variation. The probabilistic scenario-based model and associated framework offer a practical and innovative method for estimating the impact of short-duration storms under future climates for 2071–2100, in the absence of fine-resolution spatio-temporal data. The model also facilitates the assessment of the effectiveness of a climate adaptation strategy. An illustrative case-study of a road drainage system located in the south of Ireland is presented. It was found that the probability of road flooding during intense rainfall is projected to surpass the current acceptable limits set by Irish standards. Assessment of a proactive climate adaptation strategy implemented in 2015 indicated it may need to be adjusted to further reduce climate change impacts and optimise adaptation costs. • Climate change can impact extreme rainfall patterns, and resulting road flooding. • A flooding model is developed incorporating climate and drainage system uncertainty. • A quantitative climate risk analysis framework is proposed for road drainage. • The effectiveness of a climate adaptation strategy adopted in Ireland is quantified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is considered one of the major systemic risks facing the world in the 21st century. To address climate change, China has adopted a series of climate policies, but the uncertainty brought about by frequent climate policy issuance has increased pressure on enterprises, which may not be conducive to enterprises reducing emissions. This paper uses data on 1211 listed companies on the A-share market in China from 2012 to 2022 to study the impact of climate policy uncertainty on enterprise pollutant emissions. The research findings show that climate policy uncertainty increases corporate pollution emissions; climate policy uncertainty mainly generates negative impacts on enterprise environmental regulation, social responsibility, and R&D investment, thereby negatively affecting enterprise emissions reduction. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that climate policy uncertainty in China has a more significant impact on non-state-owned enterprises, technology-intensive enterprises, lightly polluting enterprises, and enterprises in western regions. These findings emphasize the importance of enterprise social responsibility, environmental regulation, and R&D investment in enterprise emissions reduction and provide policy implications for Chinese enterprises to optimize their energy-saving and emission reduction strategies in the face of climate policy uncertainty. • We investigate the correlation between uncertainty in climate policy and the corporate pollution emissions. • We utilized an extensive dataset comprising publicly listed Chinese firms spanning the period from 2012 to 2022. • Climate policy uncertainty negatively impacts corporate environmental regulation, social responsibility, and R&D investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While socioeconomic and institutional factors are crucial in explaining the onset and evolution of conflicts, recent research suggests that climate change is a further indirect driver acting as a "threat multiplier". This paper focuses on the concept of vulnerability to both climate change and conflicts to explain why some locations are more likely to engage in armed conflicts than others in the presence of a similar level of exposure to climatic changes. In particular, by means of a Spatial Autoregressive Model, we identify a set of local-specific vulnerability factors that increase conflict risk in East Africa. We employ a georeferenced database with a resolution of 25 × 25 km, covering the period 1997–2016. Results from our analysis provide some interesting insights: first, climate change does not increase conflict risk per se , but only in the presence of pre-existing vulnerabilities. Second, resource access and socioeconomic factors play a key role in driving the climate-conflict nexus especially in urban areas. In particular, vulnerability is increased whenever power is not distributed in such a way as to ensure an equitable distribution of resources. Overall, our findings suggest that, by addressing vulnerability factors that prevent adaptive capacity and an equitable distribution of resources, societies may benefit in terms of both diminished conflict risk and alleviation of climate change impacts. • The climate-conflict nexus is mediated by access to resources at the local level. • Climate change only increases conflict risk in case of pre-existing vulnerabilities. • Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for vulnerable communities. • Synergies for ensuring adaptive capacity to climate change and peace exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a non-traditional security crisis affecting the global economy and diplomatic progress. In order to curtail carbon emissions and alleviate the perils of climate change at their roots, urban green innovation (UGI) has emerged as a pivotal technological solution. Using the expansion of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in China as a case study, this paper develops a quasi-experimental model to analyze the effects of regional integration policies on UGI. The main findings are: (1) Regional integration policies significantly enhance UGI and their impact is more pronounced with the expansion of urban agglomerations; (2) Regional integration policies contribute to the advancement of exploitative green innovation while tending to diminish exploratory green innovation; (3) The green innovation effects (GIEs) created by the expansion of regional integration policies are largely influenced by governmental mechanisms on environmental governance as well as residents' green preferences. Based on these findings, recommendations are put forward to promote UGI from the perspective of policy implementation. • The quasi-experimental models of urban agglomeration expansion on green innovation are constructed. • The positive effects of urban agglomeration expansion on green innovation are proven. • Urban agglomeration expansion can enhance exploitative green innovation and also reduce exploratory green innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has accentuated the effects of extreme heat on health. Health insurance, functioning as a risk management tool, has the potential to alleviate these impacts. Consequently, this paper investigates the correlation between extreme heat events and the demand for health insurance in China. Using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we have observed a substantial increase in the likelihood of residents purchasing health insurance during extreme heat events. To be specific, for every extra day of extreme heat events annually, there is a 0.3% increase in the probability of purchasing health insurance. This effect is not uniform across different demographic groups. It is particularly pronounced among middle-aged and elderly individuals, rural residents, those with lower educational levels, higher income brackets, and individuals residing in underprivileged areas with limited access to green spaces and healthcare facilities. Furthermore, our study indicates that the increased frequency of extreme heat events not only impacts individuals' physical health but also triggers negative emotions, which in turn drive risk-averse behavior related to health insurance purchases. These findings carry substantial policy implications for mitigating the economic consequences of climate change. • Extreme heat increases the likelihood of residents purchasing health insurance. • Each additional day of extreme heat boosts health insurance purchases by 0.3%. • This effect varies among different populations. • Mechanistic analyses indicate extreme heat impacting physical and mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR), threats (GPT) and acts (GPA) on returns and volatilities of regional climate change stocks under different market conditions, employing quantile regressions. Our main results suggest that climate change stock returns positively (negatively) respond to GPR in bullish (bearish) market states, however the effect is not uniform across the regions. The volatilities mainly show a positive response to geopolitical tensions; geopolitical acts appear to have a more pronounced impact on volatilities than geopolitical threats. We further find that GPR leads to higher volatility during the Russia-Ukraine war, creating heightened uncertainty. Overall, the results reveal that geopolitical risks have an asymmetric and heterogenous impact on climate change stocks. The results provide significant insights and implications for financial market participants and policy makers. • The study investigates how geopolitical risks (GPR) influence the returns and volatilities of climate change stocks in different market conditions. • We focus on the Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a geopolitical conflict. • We find an asymmetric impact of GPR on climate change stock returns, with positive responses observed in bullish market states and negative responses in bearish market states. • While GPR does not significantly affect returns, it leads to higher volatilities during the Russia-Ukraine war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Feeding the world's population while minimising the contribution of agriculture to climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing modern society. This challenge is particularly pronounced for dairy production where the carbon footprint of products and the mitigation costs are high, relative to other food stuffs. This paper reviews a number of mitigation measures that may be adopted by dairy farmers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from their farms. A simulation model is developed to assess the cost-benefit of a range of mitigation measures. The model is applied to data from Ireland, a country with a large export-oriented dairy industry, for a range of farms including top, middle and bottom performing farms from a profitability perspective. The mitigation measures modelled included animal productivity, grass production and utilisation, better reproductive performance, early compact calving, reduced crude protein, decreased fertiliser N, protected urea, white clover, slurry tank cover and low emission slurry spreading (LESS). The results show that over half of the greenhouse gas abatement potential and most of the ammonia abatement potential were realised with cost-beneficial measures. Animal and feed-related measures that increased efficiency drove the abatement of GHG emissions. Low-emission slurry spreading was beneficial for the bottom and middle one-third of farms, while protected urea and reducing nitrogen use accounted for most of the ammonia abatement potential for the most profitable farms. Results showed that combining mitigation measures resulted in a decrease of 23%, 19%, and 12% in GHG emissions below 2020 levels for the bottom, middle, and top performing dairy farms, respectively. The findings imply that top dairy farms, that are already managed efficiently and optimally, may struggle to achieve the national and international GHG reduction targets with existing technologies and practices. • The top dairy group may struggle to achieve the 2030 and future GHG reductions targets with existing technologies and practices • 56%–86% of emissions reduction achieved through mitigation measures that were cost effective, net-zero for all three groups • Farm-level MACCs can account for variability in GHG and NH3 mitigation potentials and costs, that are often missed at the sectoral or country level. • The study found that combining mitigation measures resulted in a decrease of 23%, 19%, and 12% in GHG emissions below 2020 levels for the bottom, middle, and top dairy groups, respectively • Farm-level marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) are useful for understanding the capacity to reduce gaseous emissions from specific agricultural systems or farms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has intensified the effects of habitat fragmentation in many ecosystems, particularly exacerbated in riparian habitats. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify keystone connectivity spots to ensure long-term conservation and sustainable management of riparian systems as they play a crucial role for landscape connectivity. This paper aims to identify critical areas for connectivity under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 models) for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 and to group these critical areas by similar connectivity in keystone spots for sustainable management. A set of analyses comprising climate analysis, drainage network analysis, configuration of potential riparian habitats, riparian habitat connectivity, data clustering, and statistical analysis within a Spanish river basin (NW Spain) were applied. The node and link connectivity would be reduced under the two climate change scenarios (≈2.5 % and 4.4 % reduction, respectively), intensifying riparian habitat fragmentation. Furthermore, 51 different clusters (critical areas) were obtained and classified in five classes (keystone spots) with similar connectivity across the different scenarios of climate change. Each keystone spot obtained by hierarchical classification was associated with one or more climate scenarios. One of these keystone spots was especially susceptible to the worst climate change scenario. Key riparian connectivity spots will be crucial for the management and restoration of highly threatened riparian systems and to ensure long-term biodiversity conservation. • Connectivity importance was reduced under different climate change scenarios. • Critical area detection for connectivity conservation is threatened by climate change. • Critical areas were classified with similar connectivity keystone spots against climate change. • Keystone spots with high PC index will be priority for conservation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Governments globally face increasing pressure from climate advocates and international agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, to enact policies addressing climate change. This paper addresses the imperative for sustainable practices outlined in such agreements, with a specific focus on assessing the drivers of Green Procurement Practices (GPP) within Public Sector Organizations (PSOs). A dearth of research exists in systematically analyzing and prioritizing these drivers, exploring their interdependencies, and elucidating their relative importance. GPP is pivotal in market transformation by promoting environmentally friendly products and endorsing low-carbon, energy-efficient alternatives. This, in turn, contributes significantly to mitigating climate change and fostering a shift towards a greener, more sustainable economy. Identification of the drivers has been performed by an extensive review of the literature combined with the author's viewpoint, while the analysis has been performed using the novel method of Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) and Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) with Matriced' Impacts Croise's Multiplication Applique'e a UN Classement (MICMAC) analysis. The study's outcome reveals that the Demand for Eco-friendly products is the primary driver for the incorporation of GPP, followed by the drivers' Presence of guidelines support and Government Regulations. Findings of the research also demonstrate that suppliers' propensity to adopt green practices depends on several factors, including sustainable supplier cooperation, degree of commitment to embrace green initiatives, government interventions in the form of incentives and guidelines support, and the presence of a legal framework. The findings of this research will enrich the understanding of policymakers and managers to formulate strategies for advancing GPP structured and sustainable implementation in PSOs. The study's findings will also benefit green technology sector advancement through the widespread adoption of GPP. • Study focuses on assessing the drivers of green procurement practices (GPP) in public sector organizations (PSOs). • Analysis has been performed using the novel DRSA and ISM-MICMAC approach methodology. • Analysis reveals that the demand for eco-friendly products is the primary driver for incorporating GPP. • Other key drivers include the presence of guidelines support and government regulations. • Findings will enrich the understanding of policymakers and managers to formulate strategies for advancing GPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of global climate change and human activities are anticipated to significantly impact ecosystem services (ESs), particularly in urban agglomerations of arid regions. This paper proposes a framework integrating the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), system dynamics (SD) model, patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model for predicting land use change and optimizing ESs spatial patterns that is built upon the SSP-RCP scenarios from CMIP6. This framework is applied to the oasis urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang (UANSTM), China. The findings indicate that both the SD model and PLUS model can accurately forecast the distribution of future land use. The SD model shows a relative error of less than 2.32%, while the PLUS model demonstrates a Kappa coefficient of 0.89. The land use pattern displays obvious spatial heterogeneity under different climate scenarios. The expansion of cultivated land and construction land is the main form of land use change in UANSTM in the future. The DBN model proficiently simulates the interactive relationships between ESs and diverse factors. The classification error rates for net primary productivity (NPP), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil retention (SR) are 20.04%, 3.47%, 4.45%, and 13.42%, respectively. The prediction and diagnosis of DBN determine the optimal ESs development scenario and the optimal ESs region in the study area. It is found that the majority of ESs in UANSTM are predominantly influenced by natural factors with the exception of HQ. The socio-economic development plays a minor role in such urban agglomerations. This study offers significant insights that can contribute to the fields of ecological protection and land use planning in arid urban agglomerations worldwide. • An integrated framework combining DBN, SD, PLUS and InVEST models was proposed. • Impact of natural and socioeconomic factors on ESs was determined under climate scenarios. • The spatial pattern of ESs was optimized and partitioned using DBNs. • ESs in arid oasis urban agglomerations are mainly affected by natural factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal areas are of paramount importance due to their pivotal role in facilitating a wide range of socio-economic activities and providing vital environmental services. These areas, as the meeting points of land and sea, face significant risks of flooding due to the ongoing rise in sea levels caused by climate change. Additionally, they are susceptible to extreme events like king tides and large waves in the future. This paper introduces a framework for estimating the extreme total water level (TWL) by considering the effects of regional sea level rise (RSLR) resulting from a warming climate under RCP 8.5. It also incorporates the contributions of high tides, 100-year storm surge, and 100-year wave setup and run-up. The proposed framework is utilized to evaluate the occurrence of extreme coastal flooding along the Persian Gulf coast of Iran, an area that is home to significant industries in the country. The results offer an estimated increase of RSLR by 0.23 m from 2020 to 2050 considering an ensemble of climate model projections. Extreme wave setup values are estimated to range between 0.19 and 0.66 m, while storm surge is projected to vary from 0.4 to 1.44 m across the studied coastline. These together yield in a projected extreme TWL along the coastline within the range of 3.18 and 3.90 m above the current sea level. This significant increase in sea level could lead to the inundation of approximately 513 km2 of low-lying coastal land, which accounts for about 16% of the studied domain and could pose serious flooding threat to the people and their assets in this region. Finally, relative ranking of flooded zones (i.e., 6 zones) helps determine the areas with higher chance of flood exposure, at which investment in flood mitigation measures should be prioritized. [Display omitted] • Regional sea level rise is quantified using GCMs under RCP 8.5. • Flooding maps are shown under regional SLR, tides, storm surge, wave setup and run-up. • Extreme total water level is expected to inundate important ports in Persian Gulf coast of Iran by 2050. • Research projects that 513 km of low-lying coastal areas will be inundated due to extreme total water level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]