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Planning under complex uncertainty often asks for plans that can adapt to changing future conditions. To inform plan development during this process, exploration methods have been used to explore the performance of candidate policies given uncertainties. Nevertheless, these methods hardly enable adaptation by themselves, so extra efforts are required to develop the final adaptive plans, hence compromising the overall decision-making efficiency. This paper introduces Reinforcement Learning (RL) that employs closed-loop control as a new exploration method that enables automated adaptive policy-making for planning under uncertainty. To investigate its performance, we compare RL with a widely-used exploration method, Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA), in two hypothetical problems via computational experiments. Our results indicate the complementarity of the two methods. RL makes better use of its exploration history, hence always providing higher efficiency and providing better policy robustness in the presence of parameter uncertainty. MOEA quantifies objective uncertainty in a more intuitive way, hence providing better robustness to objective uncertainty. These findings will help researchers choose appropriate methods in different applications. • Introduce reinforcement learning to decision-making under deep uncertainty. • Compare reinforcement learning and evolutionary algorithm. • Reinforcement learning is consistently more computationally efficient. • Reinforcement learning provides better robustness to parameter uncertainty. • Evolutionary algorithm provides better robustness to objective uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Recognition of the need to manage the water environment in more holistic ways has resulted in the global growth of Integrated Catchment Management (ICM). ICM is characterised by horizontal integration, encouraging interdisciplinary working between traditionally disparate management sectors, alongside vertical integration, characterised by the engagement of communities; central is the promotion of participatory governance and management decision-making. ICM has been translated into policy through, for example, the EU Water Framework Directive and at a national level by policies such as the Catchment Based Approach in England. Research exploring the implementation of these policies has reported success at a catchment level, but further research is required to explore practices of management at local level within catchments. This paper presents the findings of participatory research undertaken with a catchment partnership in the northeast of England to explore the integration of top-down policy translation with how local communities interact with management agencies at sub-catchment scale (a bottom-up perspective). The research found that supra-catchment scale drivers dominate the vertical interplay between management systems at more local levels. These drivers embed traditional practices of management, which establishes public participation as a barrier to delivery of top-down management objectives, resulting in practices that exclude communities and participatory movements at the local level. Although collaboration between agencies at the partnership scale offers a potential solution to overcoming these obstacles, the paper recommends changes to supra-catchment governance structures to encourage flexibility in developing local participatory movements as assets. Further research is necessary to develop new practices of management to integrate local people more effectively into the management process. Highlights • Integrated Catchment Management policies promotes active public participation. • How effectively ICM policy is translated into practices of participation is explored. • Management practices exclude local communities and obstruct participation. • Local practices show a dominant vertical interplay with supra-catchment drivers. • Research on governance reform and new participatory practices is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract An effective and efficient stewardship of natural resources requires consistency across all decision-informing approaches and components involved, i.e., managerial, governmental, political, and legal. To achieve this consistency, these elements must be aligned under an overarching management goal that is consistent with current and well-accepted knowledge. In this article, we investigate the adoption by the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management of an environmental resilience-centered system that manages for resilience of marine ecological resources and its associated social elements. Although the framework is generally tailored for this Bureau, it could also be adapted to other federal or non-federal organizations. This paper presents a dynamic framework that regards change as an inherent element of the socio-ecological system in which management structures, e.g., federal agencies, are embedded. The overall functioning of the management framework being considered seeks to mimic and anticipate environmental change in line with well-accepted elements of resilience-thinking. We also investigate the goal of using management for resilience as a platform to enhance socio-ecological sustainability by setting specific performance metrics embedded in pre-defined and desired social and/or ecological scenarios. Dynamic management frameworks that couple social and ecological systems as described in this paper can facilitate the efficient and effective utilization of resources, reduce uncertainty for decision and policy makers, and lead to more defensible decisions on resources. Highlights • A resilience-based framework is studied for efficient natural resource management. • The management framework is expanded and adapted to a specific organization. • Nested panarchies are used to couple social and ecological sub-systems. • The environmental management framework is used to analyze two practical examples. • The management framework could be adapted to other organizations or groups of them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Waste management has still been a developing and progressing field, which demands continual improvements in waste transportation as well as proper selection of locations and technical operation of new treatment facilities. Most of research papers on waste management planning have been dealing with optimisation of network flows, thus minimising the cost and improving economic criteria. The shortest paths to treatment facilities are considered together with detailed analysis of their operation including heat and electricity demands in their vicinity. The tasks sometimes include social and global environmental criterions, however, the direct local consequences also play an important role and should be examined. A decision-making strategy in waste management updated with the local emission impact on the population is proposed in this paper. The paper focuses on the first move in analysing the production, dispersion, and impact of pollutants, originating in transport, with regards to the population living close to routes. The calculation of emission produced during the transport of waste takes into consideration the altitude profiles of routes, container loads, and specific types of vehicles. The consecutive estimated impact on the population reckons with the distances between routes and municipalities as well as their sizes in terms of the numbers of inhabitants, where the transportation routes are divided into smaller segments and dispersion is limited with threshold value. The proposed approach describing the emission effect has been tested using real-life operating data corresponding to the specific, 81 km long route along which approximately 25 t of waste is transported 800 times a year. The impact of pollutants on the population was evaluated and discussed. Results of the analysis were quantified for this route to create an edge characterisation needed for further calculations. This approach applied to the whole network then yields input data needed for future research of novel strategies in facility location problems. Other possible extensions of the presented approach include more accurate dispersion function or detailed calculation of the impact of pollutants with respect to specific locations of residential houses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food waste is a significant contemporary issue in the UK, with substantial environmental, social and economic costs to the nation. Whilst efforts to reduce food waste are laudable, a significant proportion of food and drink manufacturer waste is unavoidable. On the one hand, there is a drive from industry to reclaim as much value from this waste as possible, for example, by conversion to valuable products in what is known as "valorisation". At the same time, growing social and legislative pressures mean that any attempts to valorise food waste must be performed in a sustainable manner. However, for every company and its specific food wastes, there will be multiple valorisation possibilities and few tools exist that allow food and drink manufacturers to identify which is most profitable and sustainable for them. Such a decision would need to not only consider environmental, social and economic performance, but also how ready the technology is and how well it aligns with that company's strategy. In response, this paper develops and presents a hybrid framework that guides a company in modelling the volumes/seasonality of its wastes, identifying potential valorisation options and selecting appropriate indicators for environmental, social and economic performance as well as technological maturity and alignment with company goals. The framework guides users in analyzing economic and environmental performance using Cost-Benefit Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment respectively. The results can then be ranked alongside those for social performance, technological maturity and alignment with company goals using a weighted sum model variant of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to facilitate easy visual comparison. This framework is demonstrated in the form of a case study with a major UK fruit consolidator to identify the optimal strategy for managing their citrus waste. Possibilities identified included sale of imperfect but still edible waste via wholesale at a significantly reduced profit and the investment in facilities to extract higher value pectin from the same waste stream using a microwave assisted pectin extraction process. Results suggest that continued sale of waste to wholesale markets is currently the most beneficial in terms of economic viability and environmental performance, but that in the medium to long term, the projected growth in the market for pectin suggests this could become the most viable strategy. • When food waste cannot be avoided, valorisation can increase company resilience. • Valorisation strategies must try to avoid negative supply chain ramifications. • The SWaVI pragmatic framework allows companies to identify their optimal valorisation route. • The SWaVI pragmatic framework facilitates initial selection, not implementation of valorisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents one emerging social-technical innovation: The evolution of citizen-sensor-networks where citizens organize themselves from the ‘bottom up’, for the sake of confronting governance officials with measured information about environmental qualities. We have observed how citizen-sensor-networks have been initiated in the Netherlands in cases where official government monitoring and business organizations leave gaps. The formed citizen-sensor-networks collect information about issues that affect the local community in their quality-of-living. In particular, two community initiatives are described where the sensed environmental information, on noise pollution and gas-extraction induced earthquakes respectively, is published through networked geographic information methods. Both community initiatives pioneered in developing an approach that comprises the combined setting-up of sensor data flows, real-time map portals and community organization. Two particular cases are analyzed to trace the emergence and network operation of such ‘networked geo-information tools’ in practice: (1) The Groningen earthquake monitor, and (2) The Airplane Monitor Schiphol. In both cases, environmental 'externalities' of spatial-economic activities play an important role, having economic dimensions of national importance (e.g. gas extraction and national airport development) while simultaneously affecting the regional community with environmental consequences. The monitoring systems analyzed in this paper are established bottom-up, by citizens for citizens, to serve as ‘information power’ in dialogue with government institutions. The goal of this paper is to gain insight in how these citizen-sensor-networks come about: how the idea for establishing a sensor network originated, how their value gets recognized and adopted in the overall ‘system of governance’; to what extent they bring countervailing power against vested interests and established discourses to the table and influence power-laden conflicts over environmental pressures; and whether or not they achieve (some form of) institutionalization and, ultimately, policy change. We find that the studied-citizen-sensor networks gain strength by uniting efforts and activities in crowdsourcing data, providing factual, ‘objectivized data’ or ‘evidence’ of the situation ‘on the ground’ on a matter of local community-wide concern. By filling an information need of the local community, a process of ‘collective sense-making’ combined with citizen empowerment could grow, which influenced societal discourse and challenged prevailing truth-claims of public institutions. In both cases similar, ‘competing’ web-portals were developed in response, both by the gas-extraction company and the airport. But with the citizen-sensor-networks alongside, we conclude there is a shift in power balance involved between government and affected communities, as the government no longer has information monopoly on environmental measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding homeowners' energy-efficiency retrofit (EER) decision-making is a critical priority for reducing the adverse environmental impacts of the building sector and promoting a sustainable consumption transition. Existing research lacks attention to the dynamics and social interactions in the decision-making process of homeowner EER adoption. This paper applies the complex network-based evolutionary game approach with agent-based modeling to construct an evolutionary dynamics model for homeowners' EER adoption decision-making. Through simulation experiments, this paper examines the effects of various key factors, including government incentives, retrofit costs, retrofit uncertainty, and network size, on the evolution of EER adoption. The results suggest that government incentives facilitate EER adoption, but their effects require a sufficiently long period of policy implementation and extensive social interaction to be realized. Reducing retrofit costs is a robust and effective way to encourage EER adoption, especially when uncertainty is high. Retrofit uncertainty has a significant impact on the adoption evolution. Increased uncertainty can hinder adoption decisions. In particular, the combination of high uncertainty and incentives is prone to lead to incentive failure. The increase in network size contributes to EER adoption, but attention needs to be paid to the impact of potential incentive redundancy in large-scale networks. • Using complex network-based evolutionary game to study energy-efficiency retrofit. • The effects of incentive, retrofit cost, and retrofit uncertainty are simulated. • The microscopic mechanisms underlying retrofit decision evolution are revealed. • Uncertainty and network size can affect the effectiveness of government incentives. • Policymakers need to pay attention to social network size and retrofit risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For an adequate planning of waste management systems the accurate forecast of waste generation is an essential step, since various factors can affect waste trends. The application of predictive and prognosis models are useful tools, as reliable support for decision making processes. In this paper some indicators such as: number of residents, population age, urban life expectancy, total municipal solid waste were used as input variables in prognostic models in order to predict the amount of solid waste fractions. We applied Waste Prognostic Tool, regression analysis and time series analysis to forecast municipal solid waste generation and composition by considering the Iasi Romania case study. Regression equations were determined for six solid waste fractions (paper, plastic, metal, glass, biodegradable and other waste). Accuracy Measures were calculated and the results showed that S-curve trend model is the most suitable for municipal solid waste (MSW) prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Solutions that effectively promote sustainable development in urban environments require an understanding of the complexity of human-environment interactions. This paper adopted a systems-based framework to understanding how social, organisational, and environmental factors interact within an urban system in China. Drawing upon a case study from the industrial city of Jinchang, it applied a qualitative bottom-up approach to understand these key factors operating from three perspectives: the commitment of stakeholders, institutional development and personal development of social systems. It revealed that decision-making mechanisms play a key role in improving the sustainability of governance, and that public-private cooperation and public participation are critical for innovative knowledge-based strategies. The key for improving institutional development is to reform the evaluation system of governance thus enhancing the capacities of decision and policy makers, and consequently improve the process of decision-making. Cultural and personal development are important soft power components that influence individual pro-environmental behaviour and performance toward sustainability. The results demonstrated how, in a Chinese context, the urban social system can be understood and urban sustainability can be promoted through environmental adaptation supported by joint efforts from governments, businesses, society and individuals. In this, China does not differ from other nations in spite of significant differences in cultural and political systems. This study contributed to a better understanding of complex urban systems, providing a bottom-up approach and knowledge for enhancing the adaptive capacity toward urban sustainability. Highlights • Adaptive capacity driven by urban social system is essential for sustainability. • A bottom-up approach is effective to understand urban social system. • Multi-stakeholders cooperation benefits innovative knowledge-based strategies. • Reforming evaluation system of governance is critical for governance development. • Cultural and personal development are soft power for individual initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The contradiction between urban growth and environmental sustainability is a fundamental question regarding the welfare of human beings and the future of the earth. Human labor transforms the earth into factors of production by consuming its natural resources. The rational way to minimize the negative effects of such transformative intervention is advanced land use planning. Nevertheless, it is not possible to say that traditional modes of land use planning have fulfilled this task. The main reason for this failure is the habit of using traditional decision making tools which, to a significant level, are technically incompatible to deal with such a task. Hopefully, recent improvements in planning support tools have potential to process and evaluate complex geographical data. This paper benefits from these tools and moves one step further by performing a land assignment model, which operates binary integer programming and geographical information systems in a way that it can deal with different land use scenarios. This new methodology, which named as inquired land assignment model (ILAM), is applied for three different land use scenarios at upper level planning scale for a case area – Hillsborough County in Florida, USA. Outputs represent reasonable and consistent land use assignment and allocation results, and the model is potentially applicable to various fields and lower scales of planning practices by simple modifications. Highlights • Land use assignment decisions were optimized. • The method developed was used to determine capacity in urban development. • Land use assignment decisions were assessed and quantitatively tested. • Opportunity costs of different land use assignment scenarios were computed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The volume of solid waste has increased significantly in the past century, directly contributing to global environmental problems. Public engagement with waste sorting is crucial to the diversion of solid waste from landfill and the reduction of contamination in waste streams. The current study aims to promote recycling and composting accuracy via a digital sorting game that provides immediate feedback. In this game, participants manually sorted items into four bins (food scraps, recyclable container, paper, and garbage) via a computer interface, and received immediate feedback on their performance after each trial. We found that immediate feedback improved sorting accuracy as measured by correct key presses (Experiment 1) or motion trajectory (Replication 1), even when feedback was no longer provided. This improvement in sorting accuracy remained a week after playing the game (Replication 2). We then implemented this game in residences, and found that after residents played this game, the weight of compost materials increased while the contamination rate decreased (Experiment 2). These findings suggest that providing immediate feedback in a digital sorting game can be an effective tool to engage and educate the public to increase recycling and composting rates. Highlights • We developed and tested a digital sorting game to improve sorting accuracy. • Immediate feedback on sorting accuracy was provided after each trial in the game. • The game increased recycling and composting accuracy even after one week. • The game increased compost rates and reduced contamination in student residences. • This game can be a useful education tool to increase recycling and composting adherence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The expansion of wind energy poses challenges to policy- and decision-makers to address conflicts with wildlife. Conflicts are associated with impacts of existing and planned projects on wildlife, and associated difficulties of prediction where impacts are subject to considerable uncertainty. Many post-construction studies have demonstrated adverse effects on individuals of various bird and bat species. These effects may come in the form of collision-induced mortality or behavioral or physiological changes reducing the fitness of individuals exposed to wind energy facilities. Upscaling these individual effects to population impacts provides information on the true value of interest from a conservation point of view. This paper identifies methodological issues associated when moving from individual effects to population impacts in the context of wind energy. Distinct methodological approaches to predict population impacts are described using published case studies. The various choices of study design and metrics available to detect significant changes at the population level are further assessed based on these. Ways to derive impact thresholds relevant for decision-making are discussed in detail. Robust monitoring schemes and sophisticated modelling techniques may inevitably be unable to describe the whole complexity of wind and wildlife interactions and the natural variability of animal populations. Still, they will provide an improved understanding of the response of wildlife to wind energy and better-informed policies to support risk-based decision-making. Policies that support the use of adaptive management will promote assessments at the population level. Providing information to adequately balance the development of wind energy with the persistence of wildlife populations. Highlights • Wind energy development may cause impacts on wildlife populations. • Methodological issues to upscale to population impacts are discussed. • Assessments require ways to derive impact thresholds relevant for decision-making. • Adaptive management approaches may balance wind energy with wildlife populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Formalised methods to address uncertainty are becoming the norm in hydrological modelling, yet they remain fragmented and highly academic, thus limiting their utility for practitioners. Using a qualitative, empirical study of the PIREN-Seine program in France, this paper explores the proccesses behind this trend in an effort to elucidate its prevalence despite inherent limitations when applied to a decision-making context. We identify: 1/ displacement of ‘uncomfortable knowledge’, 2/ fragmented responsibility, 3/ confidence, and 4/ relational framing as interconnected factors, which concurrently support the production of scientific knowledge and the social construction of ignorance, whether it be wilful or intentional. We posit that ignorance is implicitly negotiated among researchers and practitioners in order to reconcile cognitive dissonance and maintain confidence, thereby allowing water managers to take action in the face of uncertainty. Finally, we put forth the notion that having our ‘eyes wide shut’ can be interpreted in two ways: one facilitates the normalisation of ignorance, leaving us vulnerable to unexpected surprises; the other promotes transparent and explicit communication in support of more adaptive and robust decisions. Highlights • The negotiation of ignorance is facilitated by 4 interconnected factors. • Negotiated ignorance acts to maintain confidence and reconcile cognitive dissonance. • Uncertainty is ‘reduced’ and ignorance ‘negotiated’ in order to take action. • Explicit communication and translation is required to turn ignorance into an opportunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The recent development of metropolitan cities, especially in Europe, requires an effective integrated management of city services, infrastructure, and communication networks at a metropolitan level. A preliminary step towards a proper organizational and management strategy of the metropolitan city is the analysis, benchmarking and optimization of the metropolitan areas through a set of indicators coherent with the overall sustainability objective of the metropolitan city. This paper proposes the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process multi-criteria decision making technique for application in the smart metropolitan city context, with the aim of analysing the sustainable development of energy, water and environmental systems, through a set of objective performance indicators. Specifically, the 35 indicators defined for the Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems Index framework are used. The application of the approach to the real case study of four metropolitan areas (Bari, Bitonto, Mola, and Molfetta) in the city of Bari (Italy) shows its usefulness for the local government in benchmarking metropolitan areas and providing decision indications on how to formulate the sustainable development strategy of the metropolitan city. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process characteristics, the results highlight that although one specific area (Mola in the considered case) is globally ranked at the first place, it is only ranked first with respect to some dimensions. Such a result has strong implications for the metropolitan city's manager who has the possibility to identify and implement targeted actions, which may be designed ad hoc to improve specific dimensions based on the current state of the city, thus maximizing the efficiency and effectiveness of the actions undertaken for the sustainable development of energy, water and environmental systems of the whole metropolitan city. Highlights • AHP multi-criteria decision making technique for smart metropolitan city. • Analysis of the sustainable development of energy, water and environmental systems. • Supporting the local government in benchmarking metropolitan areas. • Supporting formulation of the metropolitan city's sustainable development strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water management is a controversial environmental policy issue, due to the heterogeneity of interests associated with a shared resource and the increasing level of conflict among water uses and users. Nowadays, there is a cumulative interest in enhancing multi-stakeholder decision-making processes, overtaking binding mercantile business, in water management domain. This requires the development of dynamic decision-aiding tools able to integrate the different problem frames held by the decision makers, to clarify the differences, to support the creation of collaborative decision-making processes and to provide shared platforms of interactions. In literature, these issues are faced by concepts such as Ostrom's action arena and Ostanello-Tsoukiàs’ interaction space (IS). The analysis of the interactions structure and of the different problem framing involved are fundamental premises for a successful debate for the management of a common-pool resource. Specifically, the present paper suggests a dynamic evolution of the IS, highlighting its criticalities. It develops an alternative perspective on the problem, using a System Dynamics Model (SDM), exploring how different actions can influence the decision-making processes of various stakeholders involved in the IS. The SDM has been implemented in a multi-stakeholders decision-making situation in order to support water management and groundwater protection in the agricultural systems in the Capitanata area (Apulia region, Southern Italy). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empowering decision makers with cost-effective solutions for reducing industrial processes environmental burden, at both design and operation stages, is nowadays a major worldwide concern. The paper addresses this issue for the sector of drinking water production plants (DWPPs), seeking for optimal solutions trading-off operation cost and life cycle assessment (LCA)-based environmental impact while satisfying outlet water quality criteria. This leads to a challenging bi-objective constrained optimization problem, which relies on a computationally expensive intricate process-modelling simulator of the DWPP and has to be solved with limited computational budget. Since mathematical programming methods are unusable in this case, the paper examines the performances in tackling these challenges of six off-the-shelf state-of-the-art global meta-heuristic optimization algorithms, suitable for such simulation-based optimization, namely Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA2), Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II), Indicator-based Evolutionary Algorithm (IBEA), Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm based on Decomposition (MOEA/D), Differential Evolution (DE), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The results of optimization reveal that good reduction in both operating cost and environmental impact of the DWPP can be obtained. Furthermore, NSGA-II outperforms the other competing algorithms while MOEA/D and DE perform unexpectedly poorly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental management problems can be dealt with by combining participatory methods, which make it possible to include various stakeholders in a decision-making process, and multi-criteria methods, which offer a formal model for structuring and solving a problem. This paper proposes a three-phase decision making approach based on the analytic network process and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis. The approach enables inclusion of various stakeholders or groups of stakeholders in particular stages of decision making. The structure of the proposed approach is composed of a network consisting of an objective cluster, a cluster of strategic goals, a cluster of SWOT factors and a cluster of alternatives. The application of the suggested approach is applied to a management problem of Pohorje, a mountainous area in Slovenia. Stakeholders from sectors that are important for Pohorje (forestry, agriculture, tourism and nature protection agencies) who can offer a wide range of expert knowledge were included in the decision-making process. The results identify the alternative of “sustainable development” as the most appropriate for development of Pohorje. The application in the paper offers an example of employing the new approach to an environmental management problem. This can also be applied to decision-making problems in various other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many scholars point out that in complex and contested decision-making and planning situations, participatory processes have clear advantages over “traditional” or non-participatory processes. Improving our understanding of which participatory process elements or combination of elements contribute to specific outcomes demands a comparative diagnosis of multiple case studies based on a systematic framework. This paper describes the theoretical foundation and application of a diagnostic framework developed for the description and comparative analysis of participatory processes. The framework for the Comparison of Participatory Processes (COPP) is composed of three dimensions: context, process, and outputs outcomes and impacts. For each dimension, a list of variables is provided, with associated selectable options. The framework also requires clarification of three monitoring and evaluation elements. The COPP framework is then applied to five participatory processes across five different contexts: three located in the Mekong basin in Southeast Asia and two in eastern Africa. The goal is to test first if the framework facilitates the development of a comprehensive and clear description of participatory processes, and second, if a diagnostic step can be facilitated by applying the descriptions in a cross-comparative analysis. The paper concludes that despite a few challenges, the COPP framework is sufficiently generic to derive clear and consistent descriptions. A sample of only five case studies restricts the derivation of robust insights. Nevertheless, three testable hypothesis were derived, which would need to be tested with a much larger sample of case studies in order to substantiate the efficacy of process characteristics and attributes. Ultimately, such hypotheses and subsequent analytical efforts would contribute to the advancement of this increasingly prominent research domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are being increasingly used to develop a range of predictive models and risk assessments for ecological systems. Ecological BBNs can be applied to complex catchment and water quality issues, integrating multiple spatial and temporal variables within social, economic and environmental decision making processes. This paper reviews the essential components required for ecologists to design a best-practice predictive BBN in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework for aquatic ecosystems, outlining: (1) how to create a BBN for an aquatic ERA?; (2) what are the challenges for aquatic ecologists in adopting the best-practice applications of BBNs to ERAs?; and (3) how can BBNs in ERAs influence the science/management interface into the future? The aims of this paper are achieved using three approaches. The first is to demonstrate the best-practice development of BBNs in aquatic sciences using a simple nutrient model. The second is to discuss the limitations and challenges aquatic ecologists encounter when applying BBNs to ERAs. The third is to provide a framework for integrating best-practice BBNs into ERAs and the management of aquatic ecosystems. A quantitative review of the application and development of BBNs in aquatic science from 2002 to 2014 was conducted to identify areas where continued best-practice development is required. We outline a best-practice framework for the integration of BBNs into ERAs and study of complex aquatic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a simplified model that quantifies economic and technical consequences of changing conditions in wastewater systems on utility level. It has been developed based on data from stakeholders and ministries, collected by a survey that determined resulting effects and adapted measures. The model comprises all substantial cost relevant assets and activities of a typical German wastewater utility. It consists of three modules: i) Sewer for describing the state development of sewer systems, ii) WWTP for process parameter consideration of waste water treatment plants (WWTP) and iii) Cost Accounting for calculation of expenses in the cost categories and resulting charges. Validity and accuracy of this model was verified by using historical data from an exemplary wastewater utility. Calculated process as well as economic parameters shows a high accuracy compared to measured parameters and given expenses. Thus, the model is proposed to support strategic, process oriented decision making on utility level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the potential costs of catastrophic and climate impacted hazards is a challenging but important exercise as the occurrence of such events is usually associated with high damage and uncertainty. At the local level, there is often a lack of information on rare extreme events, which means that the available data is not sufficient to fit a distribution and derive parameter values for frequency and severity distributions. This paper discusses the use of local assessments of extreme events and utilises expert elicitation in order to obtain values for distribution parameters that will feed into management decisions with regards to quantifying catastrophic risks. We illustrate a simple approach, where a local expert is required to only specify two percentiles of the loss distribution in order to provide an estimate for the severity distribution of climate impacted hazards. In our approach we use heavy-tailed distributions to capture the severity of events. Our method allows local government decision makers to focus on extreme losses and the tail of the distribution. An illustration of the method is provided utilising an example that quantifies property losses from bushfires for a local area in northern Sydney. We further illustrate how key variables, such as discount rates, assumptions about climatic change and adaptation measures, will impact the estimates of losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern waste management provision seeks to meet challenging objectives and strategies while reflecting community aspirations and ensuring cost-effective compliance with statutory obligations. Its social acceptability, which affects both what systems (infrastructure) can be put in place and to what extent their implementation will be successful, is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, often not well understood. In light of the growing evidence that decisions to build new infrastructure are often contested by the public, there is a clear need to understand the role of scientific evidence in public perception, particularly as environmental infrastructure delivery is often objected to by the public on environmental grounds. In this paper the need for waste management infrastructure is reviewed, and the way its delivery in the UK has evolved is used as an example of the role of public perception in the planning and delivery of waste facilities. Findings demonstrate the vital role of public communication in waste management infrastructure delivery. Public perception must be taken into account early in the decision making process, with the public informed and engaged from the start. There is a pressing need for people not simply to accept but to understand and appreciate the need for infrastructure, the nature of infrastructure investments and development, the costs and the benefits involved, and the technological aspects. Scientific evidence and literacy have a critical role to play, facilitating public engagement in a process that empowers people, allowing them to define and handle challenges and influence decisions that will impact their lives. Problem ownership, and an increased probability of any solutions proposed being selected and implemented successfully are potential benefits of such approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new framework for decision making in sustainable drainage system (SuDS) scheme design. It integrates resilience, hydraulic performance, pollution control, rainwater usage, energy analysis, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs, and has 12 indicators. The multi-criteria analysis methods of entropy weight and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) were selected to support SuDS scheme selection. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated with a SuDS case in China. Indicators used include flood volume, flood duration, a hydraulic performance indicator, cost and resilience. Resilience is an important design consideration, and it supports scheme selection in the case study. The proposed framework will help a decision maker to choose an appropriate design scheme for implementation without subjectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water allocation is a growing concern in a developing world where limited resources like fresh water are in greater demand by more parties. Negotiations over allocations often involve multiple groups with disparate social, economic, and political status and needs, who are seeking a management solution for a wide range of demands. Optimization techniques for identifying the Pareto-optimal (social planner solution) to multi-criteria multi-participant problems are commonly implemented, although often reaching agreement for this solution is difficult. In negotiations with multiple-decision makers, parties who base decisions on individual rationality may find the social planner solution to be unfair, thus creating a need to evaluate the willingness to cooperate and practicality of a cooperative allocation solution, i.e., the solution's stability. This paper suggests seeking solutions for multi-participant resource allocation problems through an economics-based power index allocation method. This method can inform on allocation schemes that quantify a party's willingness to participate in a negotiation rather than opt for no agreement. Through comparison of the suggested method with a range of distance-based multi-criteria decision making rules, namely, least squares, MAXIMIN, MINIMAX, and compromise programming, this paper shows that optimality and stability can produce different allocation solutions. The mismatch between the socially-optimal alternative and the most stable alternative can potentially result in parties leaving the negotiation as they may be too dissatisfied with their resource share. This finding has important policy implications as it justifies why stakeholders may not accept the socially optimal solution in practice, and underlies the necessity of considering stability where it may be more appropriate to give up an unstable Pareto-optimal solution for an inferior stable one. Authors suggest assessing the stability of an allocation solution as an additional component to an analysis that seeks to distribute water in a negotiated process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Forest fires are a serious management challenge in many regions, complicating the appropriate allocation to suppression and prevention efforts. Using a System Dynamics (SD) model, this paper explores how interactions between physical and political systems in forest fire management impact the effectiveness of different allocations. A core issue is that apparently sound management can have unintended consequences. An instinctive management response to periods of worsening fire severity is to increase fire suppression capacity, an approach with immediate appeal as it directly treats the symptom of devastating fires and appeases the public. However, the SD analysis indicates that a policy emphasizing suppression can degrade the long-run effectiveness of forest fire management. By crowding out efforts to preventative fuel removal, it exacerbates fuel loads and leads to greater fires, which further balloon suppression budgets. The business management literature refers to this problem as the firefighting trap, wherein focus on fixing problems diverts attention from preventing them, and thus leads to inferior outcomes. The paper illustrates these phenomena through a case study of Portugal, showing that a balanced approach to suppression and prevention efforts can mitigate the self-reinforcing consequences of this trap, and better manage long-term fire damages. These insights can help policymakers and fire managers better appreciate the interconnected systems in which their authorities reside and the dynamics that may undermine seemingly rational management decisions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The adoption of the Convention on Wetlands of International Importance in Ramsar, Iran in 1971 committed the UK to conserve and sustainably use intertidal mudflats and saltmarshes for the benefit of present and future generations. Through consideration of their importance and value, current status, the characteristics, causes and consequences of their loss, and the associated responses to loss, this paper reviews the UK progress towards the conservation and sustainable use of intertidal mudflats and saltmarshes. Uncertainties in their current status and trends make it difficult to assess the overall net change in extent across the UK. However, it is apparent that losses due to erosion continue to exceed gains from intertidal mudflat and saltmarsh reparation (IMSR) schemes in south-east and southern England. IMSR schemes in the UK have been generally limited to relatively small-scale trials in comparison to elsewhere in Europe and in the USA. No research to date has unequivocally identified the causes of erosion. Regardless of the cause, the loss of intertidal mudflats and saltmarshes has adverse impacts on the provision of ecosystem services upon which humans and other species depend. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that alongside further science-based research, there is a need to develop a decision-making process capable of accommodating complexity, uncertainty and multiple diverse perspectives, through which more informed, timely decisions and more effective, concerted actions to conserve and sustainably use intertidal mudflats and saltmarshes can be taken. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes an integrated approach of site suitability mapping and ranking of the most suitable sites, for the implementation of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) projects, using spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) techniques and mathematical modelling. The SMCDA procedure contains constraint mapping, site suitability analysis with criteria standardization and weighting, criteria overlay by analytical hierarchy process (AHP) combined with weighted linear combination (WLC) and ordered weighted averaging (OWA), and sensitivity analysis. The hydrogeological impacts of the selected most suitable sites were quantified by using groundwater flow and transport modelling techniques. Finally, ranking of the selected sites was done with the WLC method. The integrated approach is demonstrated by a case study in the coastal aquifer of North Gaza. Constraint mapping shows that 50% of the total study area is suitable for MAR implementation. About 25% of the total area is “very good” and 25% percent is “good” for MAR, according to the site suitability analysis. Six locations were selected and ranked against six representative decision criteria. Long term (year 2003 to year 2040) groundwater flow and transport simulations were performed to quantify the selected criteria under MAR project operation conditions at the selected sites. Finally, the suitability mapping and hydrogeological investigation recommends that the location of the existing infiltration ponds, constructed near the planned North Gaza Wastewater Treatment Plant (NGWWTP) is most suitable for MAR project implementation. This paper concludes that mathematical modelling should be combined with the SMCDA technique in order to select the best location for MAR project implementation. Besides MAR project implementation, the generalised approach can be applicable for any other water resources development project that deals with site selection and implementation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: International targets for marine protected areas (MPAs) and networks of MPAs set by the World Summit on Sustainable Development and United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity failed to meet their 2012 deadline and have been extended to 2020. Whilst targets play an important role in building momentum for conservation, they are also responsible for the recent designation of several extremely large no-take MPAs, which pose significant long-term monitoring and enforcement challenges. This paper critically examines the effectiveness of MPA targets, focusing on the underlying risks to achieving Millennium Development Goals posed by the global push for quantity versus quality of MPAs. The observations outlined in this paper have repercussions for international protected area politics with respect to (1) the science-policy interface in environmental decision-making, and (2) social justice concerns in global biodiversity conservation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

After decades of development, the gap between expectations of Environment Impact Assessments (EIA) and their practical performance remains significant. Research has been done to identify the critical factors for an effective implementation of EIA. However, this research, to a large extent, has not been cumulated and analysed comprehensively according to the stages of the EIA process. This paper contributes to the critical review of the literature on EIA implementation and effectiveness by cumulating mainly empirical findings in an implementation theoretical perspective. It focuses on the links between different critical factors and how they relate to different stages in the EIA and thus influence the decision making process. After reviewing 33 refereed journal articles published between 1999 and 2011, we identified 203 notions of critical factors. Of these, 102 related to different stages defined in our comprehensive EIA implementation model, and 101 were identified as general factors related to the whole EIA system. The number of notions of stage factors and general factors is thus about equal. An overlap between stage factors and general factors was found, which demonstrates that critical factors function differently in different cases. The function of the critical factors is complex and it is difficult to determine contingencies and causations. In the sources we examined, there is evidently an imbalance between in-depth empirical research and general knowledge, and the paper offers some suggestions for future research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Scenario planning is one of the most prominent methods applied by organisations to assist long-term decision making. This paper uses a case study method to demonstrate how scenarios can be operationalised to inform future strategies and to challenge rigid silo-based decision making approaches. The WaterProof Northwest scenarios developed by the authors in collaboration with a range of stakeholders, and described within this paper, offer a platform for considering the future of the water environment. The scenarios were developed in the context of meeting the goals of the European Water Framework Directive. This Directive has the core aim of improving the chemical and ecological status of Europe''s water bodies. The scenarios highlight that water bodies in the case study area (the region of Northwest England) are impacted directly by a wide array of driving forces which will affect the state of the water environment over the coming decades. This analysis demonstrates that organisations responsible for creating and implementing long-term plans and policies to manage water are often far removed from the forces that will influence the effectiveness of the exercises that they are engaged in. The WaterProof Northwest scenarios highlight that organisations need different decision making approaches in order to adapt to modern environmental challenges. They also raise questions over whether environmental legislation such as the Water Framework Directive should incorporate a futures perspective in recognition of the wide ranging forces influencing their implementation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Participation has emerged as an appropriate approach for enhancing natural resources management. However, despite long experimentation with participation, there are still possibilities for improvement in designing a process of stakeholder involvement by addressing stakeholder heterogeneity and the complexity of decision-making processes. This paper provides a state-of-the-art overview of methods. It proposes a comprehensive framework to implement stakeholder participation in environmental projects, from stakeholder identification to evaluation. For each process within this framework, techniques are reviewed and practical tools proposed. The aim of this paper is to establish methods to determine who should participate, when and how. The application of this framework to one river restoration case study in Switzerland will illustrate its strengths and weaknesses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper investigates divers' preferences for artificial reef diving and willingness to pay (WTP) for large ship, artificial reef site attributes in the Florida Keys. We investigate diver demand for existing decommissioned ships that have been sunk off the Florida Keys as well as demand for four new vessels that are available for disposal from the U.S. Department of Transportation Maritime Administration inventory. Using survey data from divers, we compare revealed preference (RP) site choices, stated preference (SP) choices from a discrete choice experiment, and joint RP/SP choices. Our analysis also incorporates stated attribute non-attendance (ANA) at the choice-task level. Our results indicate that the joint RP/SP models with stated ANA are preferred, leading to decreases in marginal WTP as well as decreases in the variability of marginal WTP estimates in the 95% confidence intervals. Results provide a framework for directing more efficient future decision making regarding sinkings at locations that will enhance welfare for divers. • We collect primary data on artificial reef diving behavior and preferences. • We compare revealed preference site choices, stated preference choices from a discrete choice experiment, and joint RP/SP choices. • We incorporate stated attribute non-attendance (ANA) at the choice-task level. • Results indicate that the joint RP/SP models with stated ANA are preferred, leading to decreases in marginal willingness to pay and narrower 95% confidence intervals. • Results can direct more efficient future decision making regarding sinkings to enhance welfare for divers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remediation industry has grown exponentially in recent decades. International organizations of practitioners and remediation experts have developed several frameworks for integrating sustainability into remediation projects; however, there has been limited attention to how sustainability is approached and operationalized in sustainable remediation frameworks and practices – or whether sustainability plays any meaningful role at all in sustainable remediation. This paper examines how sustainability is represented in remediation frameworks and the guidance provided for practical application. Seven broad sustainability principles and review criteria are proposed and applied to a sample of six international remediation frameworks. Not all review criteria were equally satisfied and none of the frameworks fully met all criteria; however, the best performing frameworks were those identified as sustainability remediation frameworks. Intra-generational equity was addressed by all frameworks. Integrating social, economic and biophysical components beyond triple-bottom-line indicators was explicitly addressed only by the sustainable remediation frameworks. No frameworks provided principle- or rule-based guidance for dealing with trade-offs in sustainability decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A core aim of the European chemicals legislation REACH is to ensure that the risks caused by substances of very high concern (SVHC) are adequately controlled. Authorisation – i.e. the formal approval of certain uses of SVHC for a limited time - is a key regulatory instrument in order to achieve this goal. For SVHC which are, in addition to their toxicity, (very) persistent and/or (very) bioaccumulative (PBT/vPvB chemicals), decision-making on the authorisation is conditional on a socio-economic analysis (SEA). In a SEA companies must demonstrate that the gains from keeping a chemical in use outweigh expected damage costs for society. The current setup of the REACH authorisation process, including existing guidance on performing a SEA, ignores that PBT/vPvB chemicals are stock pollutants. This paper explores the implications of incorporating stock pollution effects of these chemicals into a SEA on authorisation decision-making. We develop a cost-benefit approach which includes stock dynamics of PBT/vPvB chemicals. This allows identifying the decision rules for granting or refusing an authorisation. Furthermore, we generalize the model to an entire set of damage functions. We show that ignoring stock pollution effects in a SEA may lead to erroneous decisions on the use of PBT/vPvB chemicals because long-term impacts are not adequately captured. Using a historic case of DDT soil contamination as an illustrative example we discuss information requirements and challenges for authorisation decisions on the use of PBT/vPvB chemicals under REACH. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifting societal needs drive and shape landscapes and the provision of their services. This paper presents a modelling approach to visualize the regional spatial and temporal dynamics in landscape service supply as a function of changing landscapes and societal demand. This changing demand can result from different policy targets. In this paper we conceptualise the system in which these dynamics take place by explicitly addressing (i) the multifunctional character of a landscape, (ii) the different spatial levels at which interactions between landscape service supply, demand, and land management occur, and (iii) trade-offs in service supply as a result of land management actions. Next, we translate the resulting conceptual framework into an operational model. As a demonstration, this model is applied to simulate changes in landscape service supply driven by regional policies in a rural region of the Netherlands. This application demonstrates potential trade-offs, which emerge in a spatially explicit way in the region over time. It illustrates the potential relevance of modelling landscape service dynamics for environmental management and decision making. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes an approach to account for asymmetric preference formation in discrete choice models used for environmental valuation. The paper draws on data from a case study on preferences for environmental change resulting from a hypothetical rural development and conservation programme in Indonesia. Local knowledge on the current state of the environment was used to define an individual-specific status quo that consistently frames changes in a range of environmental services as gains or losses matching the perceptions of the local population living in the vicinity of a National Park. I estimated choice models that included separate parameters for increases and decreases in attribute levels for the environmental services and derived the indicators of local willingness to pay (WTP) corresponding to the bidirectional changes relative to the individual-specific status quo option. I found clear evidence of an asymmetric response to increase and decrease in attribute levels relative to the status quo. Ignoring asymmetric preference formation can therefore result in biased estimates of WTP indicators and welfare measures of change in cases where the outcomes of environmental programmes can plausibly result in both an increase and a decrease relative to a reference option. Compared to a symmetrical modelling approach, the combination of simultaneously accounting for asymmetric preference formation and preference heterogeneity in the choice model yielded additional insights that may be used to inform the development of local strategies towards biodiversity conservation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper explores issues of governance and decision-making structures associated with the problem of hexachlorobenzene (HCB) waste at Botany in New South Wales. From a government perspective, the problem is ‘downstream’ of a well-known national controversy over whether Australia should have a high-temperature incinerator (HTI) to ‘dispose’ of such scheduled wastes. The 1992 decision not to proceed with HTI followed an extensive process of public consultation, which, against the expectations of industry and government, saw the emergence of Australia-wide community opposition. Alternative national management plans were formulated for the treatment of several types of organochlorine waste, with the scheme of these plans first approved in 1993 by the Australian and New Zealand Environment and Conservation Council (ANZECC). The HCB Management Plan is one of three such plans (the others being for PCBs and organochlorine pesticides). With this, ANZECC established the Scheduled Waste Management Group comprising government officials, and the National Advisory Body (NAB) made up of stakeholders. Officially the NAB had oversight of the HCB problem until 2002 when it was disbanded. As a result of the HTI experience, new community consultation protocols were introduced in association with the alternative management plans. For HCBs, which are confined almost entirely to Orica's Botany site in southeastern Sydney, this led to the establishment of the Community Participation and Review Committee (CPRC), a representative body with review and advisory functions. This paper draws conclusions from this history about government processes of decision making, the role of individual and institutional actors, the central importance of trust, and the democratisation of risk management. Using concepts delineated by McDonell [1991. Toxic waste management in Australia: why did policy reform fail? Environment 33(6), 11–13, 33–39; 1997. Scientific and... [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Intractable industrial legacies present new challenges to governance. Amongst the persistent organic pollutants, now managed internationally under the Stockholm Convention, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) stands out in all three classes of chemicals (pesticides, industrial chemicals and unintended by-products). This paper introduces twelve interdisciplinary papers contributing to our understanding of decision-making processes using a case study of HCB and industry–community relations in Sydney's industrial heartland. In this collection, authors align new political theory and emerging management theory, and they analyse the case study from several disciplines. Disputes such as that over HCB destablilise the political/administrative/technoscientific regime that is the modern state. Citizens engage in ‘sub-political’ processes which require recognition of what Ulrich Beck and others have termed ‘individualisation’. This sees decision-forming and decision-making functions push outwards into community-driven structures. There we find new styles of public participation, resolution of asymmetries between knowledge and expertise, and new corporate behaviour. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The conservation of biodiversity is an important issue world wide and in Australia the maintenance of native biodiversity on farms makes an important contribution to overall conservation objectives. This paper seeks to explain Australian farmers'' rationale for maintaining biodiversity on their farms for personal as opposed to business reasons by developing a decision-systems theory from in-depth interviews. This difference has implications for policy development. The decision-systems theory is divided into two main sections. The first section contains five parts. (1) A hierarchy of motivation stories, (2) the concept of suitability and availability of opportunities, (3) a hierarchy of three decision-systems, (4) the concept of personal career paths, (5) the concept of Lenses. The second section contains one part, a policy classification system called ‘boxes of influence’ that suggests how policy developers can use the information in the first section to develop new biodiversity conservation policy. The paper suggests that decision-systems theory could be used to shed new light on current trends in agriculture and become an important investigative tool for policy development concerning the conservation of biodiversity on farms. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Environmental policies and guidelines often specify standards for environmental indicators. The first part of this paper argues that, where compliance with these standards is assessed with the help of statistical inference, an inference employing a three-alternatives decision rule can provide more sensible feedback to environmental managers for precautionary decision-making. The second part of the paper shows how a three-alternatives statistical inference about compliance with a percentile standard might be applied to a small number of observations using a non-parametric binomial interval. This interval expression of uncertainty results in the sample size requirements for various percentile ranks becoming explicit. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents the first principles of the MameLuke framework, an agent-based modelling framework for studying environmental issues and land use and cover change (LUCC). The MameLuke framework enhances the understanding of the relationship between societal processes and LUCC by modelling individual and group decisions and human–environment interactions.The framework allows for the transformation of real-life stories into computerised models following a predetermined sequence. By doing so, the framework allows for a truly integrative approach, because it is not bound to any particular scientific discourse. Even better, the framework enables its users to combine scientific discourses regarding human decisions and behaviour on multiple scales and levels.The agents (actors and locations) in the framework are heterogeneous. This heterogeneity of agent behaviour is established by dividing the agents into categories. If an agent is a member of an agent category or combination of categories, it has access to a defined set of implementable actions. The actions are constructed out of potential option paths (POPs) and potential option nodes (PONs). The whole of POPs represent a theoretical construct of agent behaviour and decisions that the framework user wishes to explore. The POP defines a sequence of PONs. The PON is a transaction interface between an initialising agent and a recipient agent where they exchange material and immaterial capital.This paper explains the basic architecture of the MameLuke framework and shows its applicability with a model of a Philippine case study. This case study concerns the dynamics of migration and deforestation. It is part of a larger study on land use change in the San Mariano watershed area at the forest fringe of the Sierra Madre mountains in the Philippines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Management of river basins involves the making of informed choices about the desired levels of economic activities and ecosystem functioning in the catchment. Information on the economic and ecological effects of measures as well as their spatial distribution is therefore needed. This paper proposes the following instruments to support decision-making in river basins: (1) the linking of models and indicators to describe the economic and ecological effects of management actions and their spatial distribution and (2) an extended evaluation framework that aims to evaluate management actions on three objectives for sustainable river management. These are cost-effectiveness, spatial equity, and environmental quality. This paper illustrates the potential of these instruments for river basin management by a case-study on nutrient management in the Rhine basin. In this case-study four nutrient abatement strategies are formulated, based on policies of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine and the North Sea Commission. These strategies are analysed and evaluated on their contribution to the three management objectives. Results show that none of these strategies score highest on cost-effectiveness, spatial equity and environmental quality simultaneously. It appears that cost-effectiveness is in conflict with environmental quality, whereas spatial equity and cost-effectiveness show quite close correspondence. This means that a trade-off has to be made between costs and spatial equity on the one hand, and environmental standards on the other hand. This paper offers a framework to make these trade-offs more explicit and provides quantitative information on cause–effect relationships, economic and environmental effects and the spatial distribution of these effects for various management strategies. This information can be particularly useful in the development of compromises required to establish international agreement and co-operation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Papermaking is a capital-intensive industry that requires a high consumption of plant fibers, energy, and water. Previous sustainability assessments of papermaking industry primarily focused on separate evaluations for multiple criteria without the integration for criteria and could not compare the overall priority of the production alternatives. The life cycle sustainability for the most representative boxboard production is analyzed as a case study in this work. Life cycle water consumption, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and internal costs are selected as the assessment criteria. The two multi-criteria decision-making methods are applied to integrate the above criteria to obtain the sustainability sequence under different production pathways. When the papermaking enterprises are regarded as decision-makers, the alternative using waste paper as raw material to manufacture boxboard is the most sustainable, following by mixed fiber. The sustainability sequence of the alternatives using wood and straw as raw materials is controversial due to the different calculation models. Changing the proportion of raw materials and the criteria weights might adjust sustainability sequence of the alternatives. • Sustainability of boxboard production is evaluated from a life cycle perspective. • Multi-criteria decision making method is used to evaluate the sustainability. • Waste paper pulp, virgin pulp, and mixed pulp production pathways are analyzed. • The alternative using waste paper as raw material is the most sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change triggers increasing stresses on urban settlements and coastal areas. The intensification of climate-connected impacts requires municipalities and communities to undertake adaptation measures and plans. These interventions should be capable of reducing negative climatic effects on human habitat and regional bioregions. On the one hand, the international scientific community recognized the supported adaptation planning approach as the more suitable to cope with local needs and criticalities. On the other hand, there is a lack of practical guidelines and examples that can be used to implement the theory. From a perspective of growth of global awareness and sensitivity to the climatic emergency, it is necessary to develop a practical methodology able to link together impacts perception and public decision process at the local scale. The paper aims to fill the gap between the theoretical approach and the practice, through a replicable experience of integration among climate change adaptation concepts and decision-making processes. The proposed methodology is described in a 4-step process to support decision-makers in selecting tailored adaptation policies and measures. The article is based on the experience developed within the Interreg It-Hr project "iDEAL – Decision support for Adaptation pLan" project. The research combines a quantitative and qualitative methodology in local participation processes. The approach is tested on five Mediterranean coastal cities and allowed to support the development of tailored adaptation measures. Furthermore, the interaction with local actors during the process led to an acceptance of the implemented measures, designing each measure to stakeholders' ambitions and expectations. • Local participation in climate change adaptation processes. • Climate impacts management and risk perception. • A decision support system to enhance local decision making. • Developing transboundary Adriatic coasts adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel quantitative methodology for the evaluation and optimisation of the environmental impacts of the whole life cycle of a mega-event project: construction and staging the event and post-event site redevelopment and operation. Within the proposed framework, a mathematical model has been developed that takes into account greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions resulting from use of transportation fuel, energy, water and construction materials used at all stages of the mega-event project. The model is applied to a case study - the London Olympic Park. Three potential post-event site design scenarios of the Park have been developed: Business as Usual (BAU), Commercial World (CW) and High Rise High Density (HRHD). A quantitative summary of results demonstrates that the highest GHG emissions associated with the actual event are almost negligible compared to those associated with the legacy phase. The highest share of emissions in the legacy phase is attributed to embodied emissions from construction materials (almost 50% for the BAU and HRHD scenarios) and emissions resulting from the transportation of residents, visitors and employees to/from the site (almost 60% for the CW scenario). The BAU scenario is the one with the lowest GHG emissions compared to the other scenarios. The results also demonstrate how post-event site design scenarios can be optimised to minimise the GHG emissions. The overall outcomes illustrate how the proposed framework can be used to support decision making process for mega-event projects planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade, the regeneration of derelict or underused sites, fully or partly located in urban areas (or so called “brownfields”), has become more common, since free developable land (or so called “greenfields”) has more and more become a scare and, hence, more expensive resource, especially in densely populated areas. Although the regeneration of brownfield sites can offer development potentials, the complexity of these sites requires considerable efforts to successfully complete their revitalization projects and the proper selection of promising sites is a pre-requisite to efficiently allocate the limited financial resources. The identification and analysis of success factors for brownfield sites regeneration can support investors and decision makers in selecting those sites which are the most advantageous for successful regeneration. The objective of this paper is to present the Timbre Brownfield Prioritization Tool (TBPT), developed as a web-based solution to assist stakeholders responsible for wider territories or clusters of brownfield sites (portfolios) to identify which brownfield sites should be preferably considered for redevelopment or further investigation. The prioritization approach is based on a set of success factors properly identified through a systematic stakeholder engagement procedure. Within the TBPT these success factors are integrated by means of a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology, which includes stakeholders' requalification objectives and perspectives related to the brownfield regeneration process and takes into account the three pillars of sustainability (economic, social and environmental dimensions). The tool has been applied to the South Moravia case study (Czech Republic), considering two different requalification objectives identified by local stakeholders, namely the selection of suitable locations for the development of a shopping centre and a solar power plant, respectively. The application of the TBPT to the case study showed that it is flexible and easy to adapt to different local contexts, allowing the assessors to introduce locally relevant parameters identified according to their expertise and considering the availability of local data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A system dynamics-based simulation gaming model, developed as a component of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT; Hill et al., 2014), is introduced in this paper as a decision support tool for drought management at the river-basin scale. This IDT Model provides a comprehensive and integrated overview of drought conditions, and illustrates the broad effects of socio-economic drought and mitigation strategies. It is intended to provide a safe, user-friendly experimental environment with fast run-times for testing management options, and to promote collaborative decision-making and consensus building. Examples of model results from several recent IDT events demonstrate potential effects of drought and the short-to longer-term effectiveness of policies selected by IDT teams; such results have also improved teams' understanding of the complexity of water resources systems and their management trade-offs. The IDT Model structure and framework can also be reconfigured quickly for application to different river basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]