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Organic rice farming is a sustainable rice cultivation system that eliminates chemical inputs and has the potential to reduce environmental impacts. This study aims to: 1) evaluate and compare the carbon footprint intensity and the value of carbon sequestration ecosystem services (VCSES) between organic rice farming (OF) and conventional rice farming (CF) and 2) estimate the impact of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC), rice yield, and VCSES of two farming types in Phichit province, Thailand. The results showed that the carbon footprint intensity in OF and CF were significantly different with −0.13 and 0.82 kg CO 2 eq kg−1 rice yield, respectively. The differences in SOC stocks (ΔSOCS) were more significant in OF with the increase of 1107.6 kg C ha−1 year−1 (4061.2 kg CO 2 eq ha−1 year−1), while the ΔSOCS value in CF was 625 kg C ha−1 year−1 (2291.7 kg CO 2 eq ha−1 year−1). The VCSES in OF (541,196 US$ ha−1 year−1) was nearly two times higher than in CF (305,388 US$ ha−1 year−1). Under future climate change, rice yields of both farming types are expected to increase under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6.0, and it will decline under RCP8.5. The SOC and VCSES values are predicted to increase, except under RCP8.5. The dramatic declines can be found from the near future (2020–2039) to the very far future (2080–2099) period. Our finding indicates that even though climate change will have negative effects on SOC and VCSES, the OF will have less impact compared with CF. [Display omitted] • The carbon intensity in OF and CF were –0.13 and 0.82 kg CO 2 eq kg-1 rice yield, respectively. • Carbon footprint was mitigated through SOC stock. • The OF can return the value of carbon sequestration ecosystem services higher than CF. • Under future climate change, the OF will have less impact compared with CF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coordinating the coercion of human activities to the ecosystem is a continuous strategic concern. A practical way to conceptualize socioeconomic development and link it to ecosystem response is urgently needed. This study proposed a two-staged method to reveal the threats concealed in socioeconomic development and show the return of water ecosystem services to regulation measures. Eight threat indexes referring to scale, structure and efficiencies of industrial, agriculture and domestic sectors were designed to assess the threats caused by unsustainable development features, while four indexes for evaluating water supply, habitat provision, regulation and quality purification service of ecosystem were set up. For each threat index, the evaluation result is a relative value derived from comparison with a reasonable level. The major threats could be screened out by ranking threat indexes, so that unreasonable development dimension could be identified and subsequent regulation scheme be prepared. On this basis, with the targeted adjustment of socioeconomic development, corresponding improvements in water ecosystem could be expected and quantified. In the case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei District, the most remarkable threats include production inefficiency of the industrial sector and oversized population, of which degrees of deviation from reasonable levels exceed 70%. When all development dimensions were dragged to the suggested levels, the habitat provision and water supply service would witness the largest progress among four services, with the values rising from 0.49 to nearly 1. This method helps discover the critical defect of socioeconomic development in terms of ecosystem response and facilitate the decision maker to establish more sustainable initiatives. [Display omitted] • The most noteworthy threats created by regional development to water ecosystem are screened out. • Rationality of efficiency, scale and structure of development are assessed as threat sources. • Water ecosystem service improvement responding to development regulation is evaluated. • Ecosystem services better suited as near-term management objective are determined. • Methodology application improved the allocation of limited management resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]