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Waste paper disposed in landfills notably contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and impedes more sustainable, circular alternatives, such as recycling. In Hong Kong, this unsustainable approach is currently dominant as 68% of waste paper products are treated in landfills in 2020. To contextualize the impact of local waste paper management and explore mitigation potentials of circular alternatives, this paper develops a quantitative assessment framework around GHG emissions development trajectories. Combining guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), national GHG inventories, and local parameters from life cycle analysis, five GHG emissions projections were simulated along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) until 2060. Most recent baselines indicate that Hong Kong's current waste paper treatment generated 638,360 tons CO 2 -eq in 2020, comprising 1,821,040 tons CO 2 -eq from landfill and 671,320 tons CO 2 -eq from recycling, and −1,854,000 tons CO 2 -eq from primary material replacement. Proceeding along a Business-as-Usual scenario under SSP5, GHG emissions will dramatically increase to a net 1,072,270 tons CO 2 -eq by 2060, whereas a recycling-intensive scenario will lead to a net saving of −4,323,190 tons CO 2 -eq. To complement the quantitative evidence on the benefits of waste paper recycling, field research was conducted to explore the feasibility of circular policy innovation from the perspective of recycling stakeholders. These empirical qualitative and quantitative findings from stakeholders' business routines and material transactions provide crucial indications for policy and institutional innovation: Essentially, for Hong Kong to improve waste paper recycling capacities and facilitate a circular economy (CE), local stakeholders require support via fiscal policy measures (financial subsidies or tax reductions) and infrastructure improvements (delivery access and material storage). In sum, this study employs a novel analytical framework combining original qualitative and quantitative evidence to provide policy innovation towards circular, GHG emission-saving waste paper management. [Display omitted] • A new framework assessing greenhouse gas emissions from waste paper treatment. • Exploring long-term carbon neutrality pathways for managing waste paper. • Using empirical evidence from recycling stakeholders for circular policy innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of carbon neutrality target, renewable energy sources have been transforming from "supplementary energy" to "main energy", which have promoted the green and low-carbon transition of global energy supply system. In-depth analyzing the spatial patterns and driving mechanisms of renewable energy expansion are of significance for optimizing the spatial layout of clean power, and avoiding the phenomenon of wind and solar power curtailment. In this paper, we proposed an ensemble learning model to examine the nonlinear effects of physical geography, resource endowment, and socio-economic factors on solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity at the prefecture-level city scale in China. Using the city-level multi-sources geospatial big data, we extensively collected a total of 175 related explanatory variables and cumulative installed capacity of solar PV power for 295 prefecture-level cities of China. The recursive feature elimination algorithm (SVM-REF) is firstly used to extract the optimal feature subset of urban PV capacity from multi-dimensional features variables. Furthermore, three advanced machine learning models (random forest, decision tree, extreme gradient boosting) are developed to identify the key influencing factors and nonlinear driving effect of urban solar PV power expansion in China. The results show that China's PV installation capacity is highly concentrated in Northern and Northwest parts of China, with the occupancy over 70% in 2019. Moreover, the XGBoost model has the best prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.97) among three methods. We also found that total amount of urban water resources, average solar radiation, and population density are the most important controlling factors for urban solar PV capacity expansion in China, with contribution of 35.6%, 17.7%, and 13.3%, respectively. We suggested that urban solar PV layout mode in China is recommended to gradually shift from resource orientation to the "resource-environment-demand" comprehensive orientation. The paper provides a replicable, scalable machine learning models for simulating solar PV power capacity at the prefecture-level city scale, and serves as a motivation for decision-making reference of the macro siting optimization and sustainable development of China's green power industry. • This study examines the impact of high-dimensional features variables on urban solar energy development. • Over 70% of solar PV installation capacity is concentrated in Northern and Northwest parts of China. • Water resources, solar radiation, population density have significant impact on solar PV distribution. • Solar PV distribution in China should shift from resource orientation to the comprehensive orientation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the strategies employed by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to embed digital technology into their business models, aiming to reach carbon neutrality. We offer a comprehensive analysis of five high technology SMEs, unveiling an evolutionary process model that highlights their journey toward integrating technology. The integration process is delineated into three progressive stages. Initially, digital technology is seen as an 'enabler' that promotes the birth of an innovative business model, essentially transforming the mechanisms of value creation, delivery, and capture. As SMEs evolve to an intermediate stage, digital technology becomes a 'disruptor', reshaping and reinventing the business model in terms of how value is created, delivered, and captured. Entering the maturity stage, digital technology is elevated to the role of 'expertise', leading to a sophisticated business model that refines and optimizes these aspects of value. The influence of these business model innovations on carbon neutrality is complex and varies distinctly with each stage, reflecting the dynamic interplay between digital technology and business model evolution. • This study explores the unique strategies SMEs implement to weave DT into their business model innovation (BMI) with an aim to achieve carbon neutrality. • The paper presents an evolutionary process model that sheds light on this integration journey, using an in-depth analysis of five high-tech SMEs. • The paper elaborates the relationship between DT and BMI, delving into the integration of DTs and the roles they perform - as enablers, disruptors, and areas of expertise. • The paper provides insights for businesses seeking to leverage digital technologies to drive innovation and growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global low-carbon emission reduction, how to achieve green and high-quality development has become a major issue for the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Chinese government recently. Based on the data of China's listed companies from 2013 to 2020, this paper uses Python to implement text analysis of annual reports, and explores the relationship between political acuity and carbon-efficiency synergies (CES) from the perspective of enterprise initiative. We found that (1) political acuity positively affects carbon-efficiency synergies. (2) Increased political acuity can reduce carbon emissions, but the effect on economic efficiency is not obvious. That is, low carbon takes the lead in raising the level of carbon-efficiency synergies. (3) Environmental regulations can positively regulate the relationship between political acuity and carbon-efficiency synergies. (4) Political acuity in southern China, carbon neutral and non-state-owned enterprises (NSOEs) will have a more pronounced effect on carbon-efficiency synergies. From the perspective of the root causes of political linkages, we find the synergies between formal and informal institutions, and the key factors for policy implementation. This paper is helpful for enterprises to improve the synergies of emission reduction and efficiency promotion, and has practical implications for the government to promote green and high-quality development. • Assess the value of the low-carbon economy from its political roots. • We build a carbon-efficiency synergy evaluation system. • Political acuity and formal institutions are synergistic. • The influence of political acuity on CES can be replicated. • This paper expands the technical approach to low-carbon research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The digital economy (DIE), a new economic form with digitalization at its core, has become an important driving force for promoting regional economy development. In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, exploring the impact path of the DIE on carbon emission efficiency (CEE) is conducive to giving full play to the "carbon-reduction-and-efficiency-enhancement" role of the DIE, and to promoting the realization the "dual carbon" goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In this paper, the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) are taken as study areas, the panel Tobit model is used to explore the impact of the DIE on CEE, and the intermediary-effect model and threshold-effect model are constructed to test the intermediary and threshold effects of technological innovation, respectively. The results show that the DIE has a U-shaped nonlinear impact on CEE in both the YRB and the YREB and that the impact has regional heterogeneity. Technological innovation can play a mediating effect between the DIE and CEE, whereas the mediating effect in the YRB is stronger than that in the YREB. Technological innovation has a threshold effect on the DIE to improve CEE, while the threshold value in the YREB is higher than that in the YRB. Furthermore, this paper proposes some suggestions to guide regional low-carbon and sustainable development. Impact path of digital economy (DIE) on carbon emission efficiency (CEE) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). [Display omitted] • The Super-SBM model is used to evaluate the urban carbon emission efficiency (CEE), and the entropy weight method is used to evaluate the development level of urban digital economy (DIE). • The DIE has a U-shaped nonlinear impact on CEE in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). • The intermediary model and threshold model are used to test the intermediary effect and threshold effect of technological innovation between DIE and CEE. • Technological innovation can play a mediating effect between DIE and CEE, whereas the mediating effect in the YRB is stronger than that in the YREB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigation actions in all sectors of society, including sports, to limit global warming have become an increasingly hot topic in public discussions and sports management. However, so far, there has been a lack of understanding and practical examples of how these organizations, especially in team sports, can holistically assess and reduce their climate impacts to achieve carbon neutrality. This paper presents a carbon footprint assessment, implemented actions for GHG emission reduction, and offers the example of a professional Finnish ice hockey team that achieved carbon neutrality. The study is based on a life cycle assessment method. The Results show that the team's carbon footprint was reduced from 350 tCO 2eq by more than 50% between seasons 2018–2019 and 2021–2022 in the assessed categories. The most GHG emission reductions were achieved in the team's and spectators' mobility and ice hall energy consumption. Furthermore, the team compensated for their remaining emissions to achieve carbon neutrality. Multiple possibilities for further GHG emission reductions were recognized. The majority of the GHG emissions were linked to the Scope 3 category, indicating that co-operation with partners and stakeholders was a key to success in attaining carbon neutrality. This paper also discusses the possible limitations and challenges that sport organizations face in assessing climate impacts and reducing GHG emissions, as well as the prospects of overcoming them. Since there are many opportunities for sports to contribute to climate change mitigation, relevant targets and actions to reduce GHG emissions should be integrated into all sport organizations' management. [Display omitted] • This the first assessment of professional ice hockey team's carbon footprint. • Multiple actions led to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. • Concludes how sport organizations can manage their environmental impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Higher education institutes (HEIs) are important drivers for the development and implementation of best practices for environmental sustainability. However, reliable indicators are needed to objectively evaluate the environmental performance of HEIs and their policies. The present paper aims at identifying suitable indicators for unbiased comparisons among different HEIs and for the identification of temporal trends in terms of environmental sustainability performance. At this aim, sustainability reports made publicly available by 24 Italian HEIs over a 10-year period were considered. Normalization of sustainability variables such as the annual electrical and thermal energy consumptions, related greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption, against context-specific factors such as the number of users of each university, latitude, illuminance, heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days allowed identifying the actual possible disturbance of the same variables. HDDs were found to positively affect the thermal energy consumption and the related CO 2 emissions. Based on this, a novel indicator was formulated where the actual value of thermal energy consumption and the related CO 2 emissions are divided not only by the number of users but also by the HDDs of the HEIs' locations. Indeed, this is a remarkable finding that, prior to confirmation with data from world HEIs, could be implemented in world university green ranking systems for improved and less biased sustainability assessments. [Display omitted] • Context-independent indicators allow unbiased sustainability comparison among HEIs. • Context-independent indicators were identified through coefficients of variation. • Per capita thermal energy consumption needs to be divided by heating degree days. • Per capita CO 2 due to thermal energy needs to be divided by heating degree days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although our knowledge of national carbon emission trading system and green certificate trading system are powerful incentive instruments that can deliver on increasingly ambitious climate targets in China, there remains an uncertainty of systems' structural reforms. This study builds on and extends a well-established dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to incorporate carbon trading system and green certificate trading system into the modeling framework, simulating a diverse of system development pathways further allows an exploration of the many possible policy effect. Then, using total factor productivity as a comprehensive indicator to asses policy effectiveness, the evolutionary trend of comprehensive effects under different paths are separately evaluated to discover the reforms' optimal range. Our work offers main results: First, these instruments provide a price signal. The introduction of a carbon allowance auction drive up carbon prices, while the implementation of a green certificate punishment and the expansion of the trading scope promote an increase in green certificate prices. Second, all policy scenarios that help reduce carbon emission intensity and optimize the power supply structure. However, in achieving the net-zero goal, the green certificate policy incurs more economic costs than the carbon trading policy. Indeed, the combination of multiple policy tools alleviates the decline of social welfare levels. Third, synergism design among policy tools: the focus should be on carbon trading policy from 2021 to 2030, green certificate trading policy from 2030 to 2050, and strengthened policy from 2050 to 2060. Reform measures within policies may need to be introduced in a timely manner. This study offers specific insights and tailored policy proposals to support policymakers in balancing environmental goals with economic and social needs in light of the aforementioned findings. Fig. 1. Introduction of the research questions Fig. 2. Framework of this paper. [Display omitted] • Carbon emission trading and green certificate trading policies were introduced into a dynamic CGE model. • The comprehensive performance of different scenarios were measured using total factor productivity index. • The policy effects of different scenarios were explored from 2020 to 2060. • The even more effective reform measures were adopt, within a single policy. • A sensible mix were proposed, within different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global context, countries must reduce carbon dioxide emissions to "net zero" by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. China's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060. To monitor the achievements of the NDCs, establishing an annual-based accounting mechanism is necessary to record the carbon stocks in China, especially for Blue Carbon. The paper aims to present China's first national-scale systematic Blue Carbon accounting for mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses, covering the accounting subjects of physical and monetary assets, as well as relevant indicators for investors. It focuses on the design of the accounting method and system, the selection of data categories applied to this system, and the application of China's Blue Carbon accounting based on this accounting system. Taking Blue Carbon accounting as a starting point, this paper analyses the restoration prospects of these ecosystems and their application potential for NDCs in China compared with the terrestrial ecosystems. The results indicate that mangroves are the most cost-effective type of ecosystem, even compared to terrestrial forests. Thus, the paper provides policymakers with a new perspective on the decision-making of carbon sequestration relevant decisions, aiming to promote the monitoring, restoration, and expansion of China's coastal blue carbon ecosystem through the establishment of a sound Blue Carbon accounting system, and to help achieve the carbon neutrality goal in China's NDCs through regular and systematic monitoring of its national Blue Carbon inventories. • China's coastal blue carbon ecosystems are carbon sources rather than carbon sinks. • Mangroves are the most cost-effective coastal blue carbon ecosystem compared to salt marshes and seagrass beds. • The Blue Carbon of mangroves is more cost-effective than the Green Carbon of terrestrial forests when meeting China's Nationally Determined Contributions target of increasing forest stocks. • Establishing guidelines for Blue Carbon data requirements will lay a scientific foundation for formulating strategies and policies to cope with global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proposal of the dual carbon goal and the blue economy in China has sparked a keen interest in carbon emissions reduction from sewage treatment. Carbon accounting in urban sewage plants serves as the foundation for carbon emission reduction in sewage treatment. This paper re-evaluated carbon accounting in the operational processes for urban sewage treatment plants to develop a novel carbon emission evaluation model for anaerobic-anoxic-oxic treatment plants. The results show that the carbon emissions generated by non-carbon dioxide gases far exceed the carbon emissions from carbon dioxide alone. Moreover, the recycling of sewage leads to carbon emissions reduction that offsets the carbon emissions generated during the operation of the sewage plant. Also, the carbon emissions generated by sewage treatment plants are lower than those generated by untreated sewage. The findings and insights provided in this paper provide valuable references for carbon accounting and the implementation of low-carbon practices in urban sewage treatment plants. [Display omitted] • A novel carbon emission evaluation model for AAO treatment plants was proposed. • Mechanical processes generated higher carbon emissions than energy and chemicals. • The determination of direct and indirect emissions of CO 2 from sewage plants. • Sewage recycling can offset carbon emissions from the operation of sewage plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional manufacturing industry is in the early stages of transition to low-carbon innovative production, and is in urgent need of a low-carbon innovation system to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. In order to realize the effective supervision of enterprise carbon emissions, this paper constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model among the corporate, government and public from the perspective of dynamic subsidies and taxes. The main results are as follows. First, the increase in government subsidies to a certain extent will help encourage companies to choose low-carbon innovative production strategies, but more subsidies are not always better. Excessive subsidies will increase the cost of government regulation and reduce the probability of government regulation. Second, the tripartite evolutionary game system does not converge under the static subsidies and taxes mechanism. But the system could quickly converges to the stable condition under dynamic subsidies and taxes. The stable point is the situation of corporate low-carbon innovation, government regulation, and public supervision. Third, the public intervention and supervision can effectively prevent the phenomenon of government misconduct and enterprises over-emission production. And the influence of public reward and punishment is more effective for the government than for enterprises. • A tripartite evolutionary game of low-carbon innovation system among enterprises, government and the public. • Dynamic subsidy and tax mechanisms drive the model to converge to the ideal state. • Increased government subsidies will promote low-carbon innovation, but it isn't the more the better. • The same degree of public supervision is more effective for governments than for enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have discussed the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in recent years. However, the effectiveness and trade-offs of diverse countermeasures still need to be investigated, particularly under the long-term goal of low-carbon transition, which is crucial for understanding the potential impacts of the future public health emergency (PHE) related economic crisis. Given that China still faces big pressures from the potential PHE and carbon neutrality, this paper assesses the effectiveness of policy instruments in restoring the economy and advancing green development after the PHE using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium framework. Our findings reveal that the PHE imposes more constraints on the economy because of the decrease in productivity on the supply side and in consumption on the demand side. Compared to the other counterparts, the mixed stimulus can overcome the adverse impacts of the PHE while contributing to carbon reduction. Furthermore, all types of low-carbon policies investigated in this study can contribute to carbon reduction at the expense of economic growth. Meanwhile, the carbon tax realizes the target of reducing emissions with the smallest negative impact on economic growth. Thus, we suggest adopting the carbon tax policy as the most effective low-carbon measure to address uncertainties associated with the PHE. • This study explores pathways for advancing economic recovery and green development after the public health emergency. • We develop a scenario-based dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. • We characterize public health emergency shocks from a supply and demand perspective. • The model introduces different carbon abatement mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately predicting carbon trading prices using deep learning models can help enterprises understand the operational mechanisms and regulations of the carbon market. This is crucial for expanding the industries covered by the carbon market and ensuring its stable and healthy development. To ensure the accuracy and reliability of the predictions in practical applications, it is important to evaluate the model's robustness. In this paper, we built models with different parameters to predict carbon trading prices, and proposed models with high accuracy and robustness. The accuracy of the models was assessed using traditional survey indicators. The robustness of the CNN-LSTM model was compared to that of the LSTM model using Z-scores. The CNN-LSTM model with the best prediction performance was compared to a single LSTM model, resulting in a 9% reduction in MSE and a 0.0133 shortening of the Z-score range. Furthermore, the CNN-LSTM model achieved a level of accuracy comparable to other popular models such as CEEMDAN, Boosting, and GRU. It also demonstrated a training speed improvement of at least 40% compared to the aforementioned methods. These results suggest that the CNN-LSTM enhances model resilience. Moreover, the practicality of using Z-score to evaluate model robustness is confirmed. • Deep learning by combined CNN-LSTM networks for carbon price forecasting. • Hyperparameter tuning of deep learning models for improving forecast accuracy. • CNN-LSTM models outperform single CNN models and single LSTM models. • Performance metric of deep learning for abrupt changes in carbon price variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reaching climate neutrality and limiting the global average temperature increase to 1.5 °C, which are the main targets of the Paris Agreement, requires both mitigation measures and offsetting. Despite existing standards to ensure the credibility and effectiveness of carbon offsets, they face challenges associated with their quality. Incorrect replacement factors or baseline values used for the calculations can lead to credits being overestimated. The quality of carbon offsets and its assurance through offsetting standards are addressed in many publications that provide quality criteria that should be fulfilled. However, the abundance of studies and the unclear consistency of quality criteria for carbon offsets make it difficult to draw generalized conclusions. The fragmented understanding of offset quality and its contribution to climate neutrality requires a comprehensive analysis to identify prevailing consensus and areas needing further research. The paper aims to fill this gap by synthesizing existing criteria through a qualitative meta-analysis of the current literature. Consensus and discrepancies in the carbon offset quality criteria and the ratings of the offsetting programs were identified providing a holistic overview. While only the criteria 'additionality' and 'permanence' are consistently addressed in all publications, their definitions and associated aspects vary. Although consensus exists for the criterion 'ex-post', it only appears in 57% of the publications. Differences in definitions are not reflected in the program ratings. The analysis has several challenges, such as accommodating varying study scopes and methods. However, the results highlight the need for a common understanding and provide a baseline reference to enhance the quality assessment of offsets to effectively contribute to climate neutrality. • A consensus on quality criteria for offsets is missing. • Definitions of quality criteria for offsets may vary. • Only two common criteria found in all publications. • Comprehensive offset evaluation criteria needed. • More transparency to increase offset effectiveness needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address global climate change, achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality has become a global consensus. However, the means to simultaneously achieve carbon reduction and promote green economic development, particularly in developing countries, require further investigation. This study evaluates the impact of e-commerce on CO 2 emissions. Through an examination of the effects of the National E-Commerce Demonstration City (NEDC) policy from 2006 to 2017, this paper reveals that e-commerce growth facilitated by the NEDC policy resulted in a 7.89% reduction in total CO 2 emissions and a per capita reduction of 1.1146 tons in the pilot cities. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the upgrading of industrial structure, development of digital finance, and the growth of innovation and entrepreneurship serve as primary pathways for this impact. The robustness of the findings is supported by parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and additional sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, the research reveals that the NEDC policy exhibits a more significant reduction in CO 2 emissions in cities with higher levels of economic development and non-resource-based cities. Welfare analyses show that the NEDC policy has significant socio-economic effects. These findings provide new evidence on the environmental effects of the digital economy and offer insights into achieving carbon neutrality. • The National E-commerce Demonstration Cities (NEDC) policy reduced CO 2 emissions. • Optimizing industrial structure, enhancing digital finance, and promoting innovation and entrepreneurship are mechanisms. • The effect is more pronounced in cities with high economic levels and high resource dependence. • The NEDC policy substantially enhanced social welfare by reducing CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Union has identified the Textile and Clothing industry as one of the essential objectives towards carbon neutrality in 2050 in line with the "European Green Deal". There are no previous research papers focused on analysing the drivers and inhibitors of the past greenhouse gas emission changes of the textile and clothing industry in Europe. This paper aims to analyse the determinants of the changes in these emissions, and the disassociation level between emissions and economic growth, throughout the 27 Member States of the European Union, from 2008 to 2018. A Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index that explains the key drivers of the changes in greenhouse gas emissions of European Union Textile and Cloth industry and a Decoupling Index have been applied. The results generally conclude that the intensity and carbonisation effects are key factors that contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The lower relative weight of the textile and clothing industry throughout the EU-27 was noteworthy, and favours lower emissions, partially counteracted by the activity effect. Also, most Member States have been decoupling the industry's emissions from economic growth. Our policy recommendation shows that if further reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are to be achieved, energy efficiency improvements and cleaner use of energy sources would offset the potential increase in emissions of this industry as a result of a relative increase in its gross value added. [Display omitted] • An index decomposition analysis is applied to the GHG emissions changes in the EU T&C industry. • Energy efficiency improvements in EU T&C industry have been a key explanatory effect. • The increase of renewable sources in the T&C industry contributed to GHG decreased in 6%. • The structure effect shows the lower weight of the EU T&C industry on total output. • Most of EU countries have decoupled GHG emissions of T&C industry from economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green power trading is an institutional innovation proposed by China to promote green and sustainable development. This policy aims to relieve the serious debt pressure of renewable energy generation enterprises, thus laying the foundation for achieving carbon reduction targets. This paper empirically examines the role of green power trading by constructing the difference-in-differences (DID) model. Our findings indicate that green power trading significantly reduces the debt levels of policy-covered generation enterprises. This effect is more pronounced for state-owned enterprises, companies with better ESG performance, companies in regions with higher degree of marketization and companies specializing in renewable energy power generation. Further research discusses the impact mechanism of green power trading in terms of external and internal environmental channels. We find that a strong green development atmosphere, especially the external atmosphere, will significantly reinforce the weakening effect of green power trading on corporate debt. Our research provides empirical evidence for the success of green power trading policy in its pilot phase. • Green power trading significantly alleviates the policy-covered firms' debt burden. • The role of green power trading presents heterogeneity in enterprise characteristics. • A better regional environment for green growth can stimulate the effect of green power trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responding to the social, economic, and environmental call to resolve current sustainability challenges, the concern about carbon dioxide emission reduction should be incorporated into the power investment decision process. Reflecting the low carbon emission requirement, this paper proposes a new optimization model for power project portfolio selection that simultaneously considers both of carbon emission trading scheme and carbon tax imposition. In this model, the initial investment outlay, the power sale price, the carbon trading price, and carbon tax rate are treated as uncertain variables considering the fast-changing environment and complex market situation. Incorporating the constraint on whether the carbon quota is exceeded into the model, two investment strategies are proposed for investors. Using the proposed model, the impact of the rises in carbon trading price and carbon tax rate on the investor's investment strategy selection and the carbon emission is simulated and analyzed through a case study. When the expected carbon price is 203.50 RMB/tCO 2 -eq or less, a company should invest based on the strategy that annual emissions exceed the quota to obtain a maximum expected N P V which is larger than 408588 million RMB. When future carbon prices are 352.00, 500.50 and 649.00 RMB/tCO 2 -eq, the government should impose carbon tax rates of 30, 30, and 40 RMB/tCO 2 on a power company, respectively, to obtain carbon emission reduction effect. At last, to see the contrast effect of the results from simultaneous implementation of both carbon trading and carbon tax, the results considering the carbon trading alone or carbon tax alone are discussed, respectively. • A new power project selection model considering carbon emission is proposed. • In this model, carbon trading price and tax rate are treated as uncertain variables. • For carbon price of 203.5 RMB/tCO 2 -eq or less, NPV is obtained as 4.08588 × 1011 RMB. • For higher carbon price, carbon tax rate must be imposed as 30 or 40 RMB/tCO 2. • Combined policy of ETS and carbon tax reduces the profit and emissions of a company. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The excessive use of fossil energy in industrialization has caused the frequent occurrence of global warming and environmental pollution issues, which seriously threaten the sustainable social and economic development of South Korea and other countries. In response to the international community's call to effectively address climate change, South Korea has announced achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. In this context, this paper takes the carbon emission of South Korea from 2016 to 2021 as a sample an d focuses on using the GM(1,1) model to predict the carbon emission change trajectory of South Korea in the process of achieving carbon neutrality. The results show: first, in the process of carbon neutrality, South Korea's carbon emissions show a downward trend, with an average annual rate of 2.34%. Second, by 2030, carbon emissions will decline to 502.34 Mt CO 2 e, down about 26.79% from the 2018 peak. By 2050, South Korea's carbon emissions will decline to 312.65 Mt CO 2 e, down about 54.44% from the 2018 peak. Third, it is difficult for South Korea to achieve its carbon neutrality target by 2050 based solely on its forest carbon sink storage capacity. Therefore, this study is expected to provide a reference for improving the carbon neutrality promotion strategy in South Korea and strengthening the construction of relevant systems of carbon neutrality, and so can provide some reference for other countries, including China, to improve policy design to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the global economy. • A GM(1,1) model is used. • By 2050, South Korea's carbon emission will drop to 312.65 MtCO2e. • South Korea will achieve the carbon neutrality target in 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of Personal Carbon Trading (PCT) holds promise in facilitating a noteworthy contribution towards the attainment of emissions reduction predicated on consumption patterns and consequently motivating lifestyle modifications. As individual consumption behaviors usually lead to continuous changes in carbon emissions, it is crucial to rethink PCT from a systematic perspective. This review employed a bibliometric analysis of 1423 papers related to PCT, highlighting the key themes of carbon emissions from energy consumption, climate change, and public opinion on policies in the context of PCT. Most of the existing PCT researches focus on theoretical assumptions and public attitudes, while the quantification of carbon emissions and simulation of PCT require further investigation. Furthermore, the concept of Tan Pu Hui is seldom addressed in PCT studies and case analyses. Moreover, there are limited PCT schemes worldwide that can be directly implemented in practice, leading to a scarcity of large-scale, high-participation case studies. To address these gaps, this review proposes a framework to clarify how PCT can stimulate individual emission reductions on the consumption side, comprising two phases, from motivation to behavior and behavior to target. Future endeavors should prioritize the enhancement of the systematic study of the theoretical foundation of PCT, encompassing carbon emissions accounting and policy design, the incorporation of cutting-edge technology, and the reinforcement of integrated policy practice. This review serves as a valuable reference for future research endeavors and policymaking efforts. • Emissions accounting and simulation for Personal Carbon Trading (PCT) research require further improvements. • Lacking large-scale and high-participation PCT practice cases. • A framework consisting of two phases has been proposed to clarify PCT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boosting the coordination and symbiosis of urbanization and forest ecological security is notably critical for promoting regional green and sustainable development and achieving emission peak and carbon neutrality goals. However, there was still a lack of in-depth analysis of the coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and forest ecological security and its impact mechanism. On the basis of the data from 844 counties in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper explored the spatial differences and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and forest ecological security. The results manifested that: i) There were apparent spatial disparities in the urbanization index, forest ecological security index, comprehensive index, coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Among them, the spatial pattern of coupling coordination degree had a strong consistency with urbanization index, that is, areas with higher urbanization index also had higher coupling coordination degree. ii) Based on coupling feature identification, it was found that 249 'problem areas' were mainly located in Yunnan Province, southeastern Guizhou Province, central Anhui Province, and central and eastern Jiangsu Province. The main factor for the formation was due to the lag of urbanization in coordinated development. iii) Among the socioeconomic indicators, population structure (0.136), per capita year-end financial institutions loan balance (0.409) and per capita fixed asset investment (0.202) all had a positive impact on coupling coordination degree, while location conditions (−0.126) had a negative impact. Among the natural indicators, soil organic matter (−0.212) and temperature (−0.094) had a negative impact on coupling coordination degree. iv) During the process of coordinated development, it was necessary to increase financial investment and financial support, actively formulate policies to attract talents, enhance the education and publicity of ecological civilization, and develop a green circular economy. The above measures can promote the harmonious development of urbanization and forest ecological security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. • Exploring the coupling relationship between urbanization and forest eco-security. • Areas with higher urbanization index have higher coupling coordination degree. • Coordinated development is deeply influenced by socioeconomic and natural factors. • Targeted policies for problem areas promote their coordinated development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate carbon price projections can serve as valuable investment guides and risk warnings for carbon trading participants. However, the escalation of uncertain factors has brought numerous new hurdles to existing carbon price forecast methods. In this paper, we develop a novel probabilistic forecast model called quantile temporal convolutional network (QTCN) that can precisely describe the uncertain fluctuation of carbon prices. We also investigate the impact of external factors on carbon market prices, including energy prices, economic status, international carbon markets, environmental conditions, public concerns, and especially uncertain factors. Taking China's Hubei carbon emissions exchange as a study case, we verify that our QTCN outperforms other classical benchmark models in terms of prediction errors and actual trading returns. Our findings suggest that coal prices and EU carbon prices have the most significant effect on Hubei carbon price forecasting, while air quality index appears to be the least important. Besides, we demonstrate the great contribution of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty to carbon price projections. The effect of these uncertainties is more pronounced when the carbon price is at a high quantile level. This research can offer valuable guidelines for carbon market risk management and provide new insight into carbon price formation mechanisms in the era of global conflict. • We propose a novel probability forecast model QTCN for carbon prices. • The impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks are considered. • The prediction accuracy of QTCN outperforms other competing models. • QTCN-based trading strategies yield higher profits than a point forecast-based one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital technology is an effective way to realize the carbon neutrality target in China. Therefore, based on panel data at the city level in China from 2006 to 2016, we take the e-commerce pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, using the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) method to explore the effect of digital technology development on carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism. The conclusion of this paper shows that (ⅰ) the e-commerce pilot policy has significantly reduced carbon emissions. After a series of robustness tests, this empirical conclusion is still valid. (ⅱ) The inhibitory effect of different waves of e-commerce pilot cities on carbon emissions sequentially decreases. The e-commerce pilot policy has a greater effect on reducing carbon emissions in non-old industrial based cities and non-resource-based cities. (ⅲ) Implementing the e-commerce pilot city policy mainly reduces urban carbon emissions by optimizing resource allocation, reducing energy consumption and upgrading the industrial structure. (ⅳ) In addition, implementing the e-commerce pilot city policy has a significant positive carbon-reducing linkage effect with the carbon trading pilot policy and the low-carbon city pilot policy. The findings of this paper provide empirical evidence for carbon emission reduction, which has implications for upgrading urban construction patterns and promoting green urban development. • The construction of national e-commerce pilot cities has significantly reduced the carbon emission of cities. • The inhibitory effect of different batches of e-commerce pilot cities on carbon emissions sequentially decreases. • Playing more significant effect in non-old industrial based cities and non-resource-based cities. • Reducing urban carbon emissions by optimizing resource allocation and reducing energy consumption. • Having a significant positive carbon-reducing linkage effect with carbon emissions mitigation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese government has declared a determination at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that China will improve its independent contribution and adopt more powerful measures to peak the carbon emissions before 2030. However, such strict implementation of carbon reduction policies is bound to bring the cost of sacrificing economic development. In such a context, this paper tries to use shadow price to measure the average social cost of emission reduction, marginal abatement cost to depict the pressure to reduce carbon emissions based on non-radial distance function, and provides an optimal scheme for provincial emission reduction to minimize the national cost of emission reduction based on variable-coefficient model. Results show that: First, the average value of shadow price is 15.91 and varies widely among regions, which means on average reducing one unit of carbon emissions will sacrifice 15.914 yuan RMB of economic output, and there exists possibility of carbon transactions across regions; Second, on the one hand, marginal abatement cost of carbon emission for most regions presents an upward tendency over time, which means greater economic costs have to be sacrificed with economic development in the future; On the other hand, marginal abatement cost is much higher in regions with high economic level than that in the economically undeveloped areas, which indicates reducing carbon emissions is becoming increasingly difficult and would pay more economical cost in economically developed regions; Third, the optional allocation scheme of CO2 reduction derived from this research is better than administrative ways of Grandfathering and Benchmarking in terms of minimizing emission reduction cost. Results of this paper indicate that larger carbon trading market can be implemented in China to economically fulfill the commitment of peaking carbon emissions. • This paper provides a scheme to minimize the carbon emission reduction cost. • Shadow price and marginal cost of carbon emission are estimated. • More comprehensive carbon trading market can be implemented in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global climate change becoming increasingly serious, carbon neutrality, a key strategy to mitigate climate change, has attracted widespread attention. However, due to the multidisciplinary and complexity of carbon neutrality studies, as well as the diversification of research content, a comprehensive review and systematic synthesis of which is quite limited. In this paper, a bibliometric analysis on the topic of carbon neutrality is conducted to reveal the research progress from a quantitative and visual perspective and describe the evolution of research hotspots. The results show that carbon neutrality research is abundant at both the macro and micro levels. Low carbon development is the premise of carbon neutrality, and emission reduction and carbon sinks are the basis of carbon neutrality. The degree of research varies significantly in different countries, with China dominating in the number of publications, followed by the USA and the UK. The realization of carbon neutrality cannot be fully achieved by one single perspective and requires a comprehensive and systematic analysis of technology, economy, and society. Carbon neutrality is a technology-driven process guided by policy. Economically, carbon taxes and carbon markets are two important market mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions. Technically, researches of negative carbon technologies and renewable energy are growing rapidly. Carbon market, carbon negative technology, circular economy, and green energy will become the focus of future research. This paper helps scholars to understand the overall state of carbon neutrality research and provides a historical reference for future research. • The evolution of carbon neutrality research is identified by a bibliometric method. • Visualizes research status and outlines research foci, frontiers and prospects. • Retrieve 5271 articles published over 25 years in SCIE and SSCI databases. • Carbon neutrality is a technology-driven process guided by policy. • Circular economy and carbon markets are new areas of carbon neutrality research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the overall and time-varying efficiency of China's carbon market, which is crucial for carbon risk management and policymaking. Due to the severe illiquidity problems other pilots face, we first select Shenzhen, Guangdong, and Hubei pilots out of the eight carbon pilots for our study based on the statistical analysis. We then test the overall efficiency of the markets using the LM, CD, and Wild-Bootstrap variance ratio test. The sliding window method is combined with the above three variance ratio test methods to validate the time-varying efficiency. The results prove that the overall efficiency of the three carbon pilots has not yet reached a weak form. And we observe that the short-term efficiency is time-varying and may be weak-form. The study further found Hubei to be the most efficient carbon pilot, followed by Guangdong and Shenzhen. Finally, this paper conducts a qualitative analysis on the low efficiency from five aspects namely carbon trading rules, market liquidity, price volatility, trading volume, and types of trading products. Several conclusions and recommendations are proposed for policymakers and investors. • Sliding window method is combined with a series of variance ratio test methods. • The overall and time-varying efficiency of China's carbon market is tested. • China's carbon market has not reached weak-form efficiency. • Hubei is the most efficient carbon pilot. • Reasons for low efficiency are analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Process-related carbon emissions, which cannot be completely eliminated by the improvement of processes and energy structure, are recognized as an enormous challenge for in-depth decarbonization. To accelerate the achievement of carbon neutrality, the concept of 'artificial carbon cycle' is proposed based on the integrated system of process-related carbon emissions from high-emitting industries and CCU technology as a potential pathway towards a sustainable future. This paper conducts a systematic review on the integrated system with the case of China, which is the largest carbon-emitting and manufacturing country, to provide a clearer and more meaningful analysis. Multi-index assessment was used to organize the literature and draw the useful conclusion. Based on literature review, the high-quality carbon sources, reasonable carbon capture approaches and promising chemical products were identified and analyzed. Then the potential and practicability of the integrated system was further summarized and analyzed. Finally, key factors of future development including technology improvement, green hydrogen, clean energy and industrial cooperation were stressed to provide a theoretical reference for future researchers and policy makers. • Demonstration on the rationality and importance of applying CCU technology on process-based carbon emissions. • Multi-index assessment on adoptable carbon sources, possible pathways of carbon capture and carbon conversion. • Analysis on the potential and practicability of the integrated system to accelerate carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal power industry is one of China's leading sources of carbon emissions. China has launched a national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) and renewable energy incentive programs to achieve its peak emission target by 2030. However, since 2021, China no longer provides a central feed-in tariff (FIT) for new centrally located solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants, commercial and industrially distributed PV projects, and newly approved onshore wind power projects. This change in policy may threaten China's carbon reduction targets and economic development. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we assess the combined effects of carbon ETS and FIT on China's electricity sector, carbon emission peak target, renewable energy and economic development. In terms of policy overlap and integration, we analyze the impact of these policies and estimate how to coordinate FIT and carbon ETS policies to ensure their effectiveness. Results show that the overall effects of FIT subsidies are superior to phasing-out FIT scenarios. The fiscal pressure caused by FIT is lower than its actual expenditure because it stimulates economic activity and boosts government revenue. However, considering the multiplier effect of the FIT on promoting government revenue growth and GDP growth, the most effective FIT should be terminated in 2025, followed by subsidies ending in 2030 and 2035. • Using the dynamic CGE model, the combined effect of Feed-in tariffs and carbon ETS is simulated. • This paper found that the overall effects of continuous FIT subsidies are superior to phasing-out FIT scenarios. • The fiscal pressure caused by continuous FIT is lower than its actual expenditure. • Considering the multiplier effect of the FIT, the most effective subsidy policy should be terminated in 2025. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the tightening regulation of carbon emissions, China has launched the pilot carbon emission trading scheme (CETS) since 2013. There is growing empirical evidence of the actual effect of CETS to promote enterprises' productivity which is characterized by total factor productivity (TFP). However, most studies ignored the further analysis of influence mechanisms. This paper aims to explore the impact of CETS on the TFP of enterprises and discuss the mediating role of government participation and carbon trading market efficiency. Using data from A-share listed enterprises from CETS-covered enterprises, this paper employed a combination of the propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-in-differences (DID) strategies and found that the CETS has a statistically significant positive impact on the TFP of enterprises, and the positive effect has been maintained for six years since its inception. The moderation analysis indicated that: (1) two dimensions of government participation in terms of the market incentive and government supervision significantly moderate the positive impact of CETS on TFP of enterprises; (2) two dimensions of carbon trading market efficiency in terms of the market scale and liquidity significantly moderates the positive impact of CETS on TFP of enterprises. In light of Chinese pilots CETS policy, the study highlights the important moderating roles of government participation and high carbon trading market efficiency on enterprise's TFP. [Display omitted] • Chinese pilots CETS significantly improved the TFP of enterprises by 9.48%. • The government participation moderates the positive impact of CETS on enterprises' TFP. • The higher carbon trading market efficiency is, the greater the moderating effect of CETS on TFP is. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructing and adopting a county-level panel dataset containing carbon emission (CO 2) and economic information between 2009 and 2017, this paper employs the continuous difference-in-differences (DID) model and is among the first to conduct an evaluation of the CO 2 reduction effect of China's emission trading scheme (ETS) pilot markets from the dual perspectives of price and scale. The empirical results emerge that the increase of transaction price and the expansion of transaction volume in ETS pilots have a persistent and significant influence on CO 2 reduction. Parallel to this, it is found the rising of transaction price in ETS can be effective on CO 2 reduction by improving the energy structure transition, however, optimization of industrial structure and the development of ICT might be the essential channels driven by the expansion of transaction volume. Last, this paper identifies the synergistic effect on different sorts of contaminants and find it is more substantial to those with the gas state. This paper implies that the policymakers should fully excavate the market-oriented environmental regulation tools from transaction price and volume perspective of views for the well achieving the climate ambitions of carbon peak and neutrality. • This article estimates the carbon emission reduction effect in of China's ETS pilots from the dual perspective of price and scale point of view. • The switch of China's carbon ETS regional pilots to national unified one can make the carbon emissions experience a wave of decline about 6.162%. • By estimating the possible synergistic effect on pollution of ETS market pilots, which find it is more significant to pollutants with gas phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon trading policy seeks to control carbon emissions by putting a price on carbon emissions and establishing a corresponding carbon market for trading. It is a significant move by China to address climate issues and achieve its Carbon Neutrality target. Therefore, assessing the policy effects of carbon trading is fundamental to its implementation nationwide. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2008 to 2018, this paper uses the Synthetic Control Method and Differences-in-Differences method to assess the effects of carbon trading policy on achieving Carbon Neutrality. By measuring the net carbon emissions, this research explores the level of Carbon Neutrality in each region. Based on the Five-sphere Integrated Plan (which covers the economy, politics, culture, social and ecological civilization), this research further verifies the impact paths of carbon trading policy on Carbon Neutrality. The results show that: First, carbon trading policy has a significant and sustainable effect on Carbon Neutrality. Second, from the perspective of the Five-sphere Integrated Plan, the carbon trading policy can help to reduce carbon sources and increase carbon sinks by adjusting the industrial structure, coordinating low-carbon policies, promoting cultural dissemination, increasing green space construction, and reducing energy intensity to achieve Carbon Neutrality. Third, cultural construction plays the most significant role in mediating carbon trading and Carbon Neutrality, followed by political construction. • This paper examines the effectiveness of carbon trading policy for Carbon Neutrality. • We use the Synthetic Control Method and Difference-in-Differences method. • The impact paths of carbon trading policy are examined from the Five-sphere Integrated Plan perspective. • Carbon Neutrality should be incorporated into the Five-sphere Integrated Plan. • A cross-perspective study of the Five-sphere Integrated Plan, carbon trading with Chinese characteristics has been formed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China pushed for the unification of markets for natural resources and emissions, wherein initial allocation mechanisms have a significant impact on how well the market functions. To identify how the market works well, this paper builds an integrated framework, comprised of permits initialization and reallocation processes. Additionally, we simulate variables by 2030 through scenario analysis and machine learning methods. At the unified energy-carbon market, GDP could increase by more than 49%, while the total energy consumption and the total carbon emission increase by around 410 million tons and 711 million tons, respectively, in China. This illustrates how joint trading markets favor economic growth and emission reduction simultaneously. Besides, most of China's provinces obtain improved energy consumption and carbon emission intensities, which proves the effectiveness and importance of the unified market. However, two rebound effects are found, one is that the increased investment is not always promoting positive effects, and the other is that provinces with higher GDPs have less incentive to cut their energy use. Further, the accumulated per capita initialization type favors energy conservation, while per GDP initialization benefits economic growth and carbon reduction. It's needed that simultaneously constructing an economic and efficient incentive mechanism while effectively playing up the government's role. [Display omitted] • Energy and carbon joint markets have economic and environmental co-benefits. • A novel framework is designed enabling the exchange of energy and carbon permits. • The influence of socio-economic and climate change scenarios in the future is considered. • The influence of initial permits allocation modes on market performance is identified. • Promotion measures are needed especially for provinces with higher economic outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in agricultural soils removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and contributes towards achieving carbon neutrality. For farmers, higher SOC levels have multiple benefits, including increased soil fertility and resilience against drought-related yield losses. However, increasing SOC levels requires agricultural management changes that are associated with costs. Private soil carbon certificates could compensate for these costs. In these schemes, farmers register their fields with commercial certificate providers who certify SOC increases. Certificates are then sold as voluntary emission offsets on the carbon market. In this paper, we assess the suitability of these certificates as an instrument for climate change mitigation. From a soils' perspective, we address processes of SOC enrichment, their potentials and limits, and options for cost-effective measurement and monitoring. From a farmers' perspective, we assess management options likely to increase SOC, and discuss their synergies and trade-offs with economic, environmental and social targets. From a governance perspective, we address requirements to guarantee additionality and permanence while preventing leakage effects. Furthermore, we address questions of legitimacy and accountability. While increasing SOC is a cornerstone for more sustainable cropping systems, private carbon certificates fall short of expectations for climate change mitigation as permanence of SOC sequestration cannot be guaranteed. Governance challenges include lack of long-term monitoring, problems to ensure additionality, problems to safeguard against leakage effects, and lack of long-term accountability if stored SOC is re-emitted. We conclude that soil-based private carbon certificates are unlikely to deliver the emission offset attributed to them and that their benefit for climate change mitigation is uncertain. Additional research is needed to develop standards for SOC change metrics and monitoring, and to better understand the impact of short term, non-permanent carbon removals on peaks in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and on the probability of exceeding climatic tipping points. Overview of the challenges associated with using soil carbon certificates as privately traded, voluntary emission offsets. [Display omitted] • Soil-based carbon certificates are sold as voluntary emission offsets. • Private certification schemes provide financial incentives for carbon farming. • However, they are not a suitable tool for climate change mitigation. • Permanence, additionality and monitoring are not ensured; leakage effects may occur. • Accountability in case of re-emissions of stored carbon is low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This investigation explores whether sustainable finance and renewable energy could facilitate U.S. carbon neutrality. We perform the time-varying parameter-stochastic volatility-vector auto-regression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to obtain the changing relations among U.S. sustainable finance (SF), renewable energy (RE) and carbon dioxide emission (CO2). The empirical outcomes reveal a short-term negative effect from RE to CO2, indicating that renewable energy consumption could promote U.S. carbon neutrality. This effect is asymmetrical, and it could be observed that RE increase has a greater effect on CO2 than RE reduction. Also, the development of sustainable finance could facilitate U.S. carbon neutrality, and the direct impact is longer and more significant than RE, but the indirect effect of SF on CO2 by influencing RE is hysteretic. Besides, the asymmetric effect reveals that the negative direct impact of SF increase on CO2 is smaller than SF reduction, and the latter's indirect effect is more rapid than the former. Against the backdrop of global warming and frequent extreme weather, the above conclusions have meaningful practical applications for the U.S. to achieve carbon neutrality targets through developing sustainable finance and renewable energy. [Display omitted] • This paper explores the effects of SF and RE on U.S. carbon neutrality. • The facilitation of SF on U.S. carbon neutrality is more influential than that of RE. • There is a hysteretic indirect effect of SF on CO2 by influencing RE. • The negative effect of RE reduction on CO2 is smaller than that of RE increase. • The direct and indirect effects of SF on CO2 are asymmetric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green credit policy (GCP) can achieve economic growth and environmental conservation, notably by lowering air pollutants (PM2.5). Green credit is a significant component of China's green financing for environmental regulation and achieving carbon neutrality. In this paper, to understand the causal relationship between GCP and PM2.5, we apply a bootstrap full-sample Granger causality test, parameter stability test, and quantile-on-quantile test for the period between 2003:M01 to 2019:M12. The result shows a bidirectional relationship and reveals that GCP has varied environmental implications in its early and mature stages because of a low percentage of green credit and a lack of motivation for financial institutions. In the long run, GCP and PM2.5 interaction confirm the favorable effects of GCP on PM2.5 as the green credit system improves. For robustness, we used quantile-based granger causality to evaluate the causative link between GCP and PM2.5. In light of the findings, this research advises legislative reforms and stresses the relevance of green credit in improving air quality. This study adds additional evidence that air pollution affects green credit policies. Air quality being a leading indicator helps firms anticipate changes in bank credit preferences and alter financing techniques. • The study explores the causal relationship between GCP and PM2.5 • The study used advanced econometrics methods for the period 2003:M01 to 2019:M12. • The result shows a bidirectional relationship between GCP and PM2.5. • GCP has a positive influence on PM2.5 as the green credit system improves. • This study adds further evidence that air pollution affects green credit policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to examine the cross-correlation relationship between EU carbon market price and the economic policy uncertainty. The United Kingdom and the United State of America are chosen as the representative countries. We first conduct the linear analysis to explore the correlation of EU carbon market futures return with the economic policy uncertainty of the two countries. Our findings show that there is no linear correlation between EU carbon market return and economic policy uncertainty. Then, we apply the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis to examine the cross-correlation between the return of EU carbon market futures and economic policy uncertainty. The empirical results indicate that the cross-correlations really exist, and the cross-correlation behavior structure over different carbon trading phases are not the same. Moreover, the empirical results show that the anti-persistence between the EU carbon futures return and economic policy uncertainty changes from the UK and the USA are both relatively strong. The findings provide deeper insights and management implications for the carbon market from a new perspective. • This paper examines the cross-correlation between the EPU and the EU carbon market. • There is no linear correlation between the EPU and the EU carbon market. • The cross-correlation behavior structure over different carbon trading phases are not the same. • The anti-persistence between the EPU and the EU carbon futures return from the UK and the USA are both relatively strong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the light of The Paris Agreement (COP 21), global leaders reached a consensus to curtail the increase in global temperature up to 2.0 °C ideally 1.5 °C pre-industrial level. Likewise, it has become a pathway to accomplish long-term goals of achieving carbon neutrality. In this regard, this paper aims to explore the role of green process innovation and environmental orientation toward environmental performance for achieving the long-term goal of carbon neutrality. In addition, this paper also discovers a mediating role of green competitive advantage in said context. Using data from a survey among managers of equipment manufacturing sector, the study employed structural equation modeling technique and found that green process innovation, environmental orientation and green competitive advantage significantly influence environmental performance. Subsequently, mediation analysis indicated that green competitive advantage partially mediates the relation from green process innovation and environmental orientation to environmental performance. In light of the carbon neutrality targets, the study highlight that improving environmental performance through green process innovation and environmental orientation can be a way-forward for manufacturing sector to play its role to achieve carbon neutrality. The study concludes with theoretical and practical implications. • This paper used data collected from managers. • Partial mediation of green competitive advantage has been found. • Green process innovation significantly improves environmental performance. • Environmental orientation considerably reinforces environmental performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon neutrality is an important environmental management tool to deal with the global greenhouse effect. Addressing climate change is an important starting point for promoting the high-quality development of China's economy and the construction of ecological civilization, as well as an important area for participating in global governance and adhering to multilateralism. In this paper, from the perspective of carbon neutrality, taking China's Jiangsu Province as an example, the super-efficiency DEA model is selected to measure the level of ecological efficiency in Jiangsu, and on this basis, the Tobit model is used to verify the main factors affecting regional ecological efficiency. The results are as follows: (1) The regional eco-efficiency in Jiangsu shows a trend of decreasing from south to north, with obvious phenomenon of "club convergence", with significant spatial correlation and agglomeration. (2) The industrial structure is negatively related to the regional eco-efficiency of Jiangsu regions; Energy consumption structure has a positively impact in southern Jiangsu,but negatively in central and northern Jiangsu; FDI has a positively impact in central and northern Jiangsu, but negatively in southern Jiangsu; Regional economic development has a positively impact in southern and northern Jiangsu, but negatively in central Jiangsu; The progress in the technological level has positive effects on the eco-efficiency of all regions of Jiangsu. The final paper puts forward some suggestions based on the carbon neutral target Provide theoretical reference for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. • Construct an regional ecological efficiency evaluation index system. • Use super-DEAmethod to measure ecological efficiency level. • Study from the perspective of carbon neutrality. • Propose a reference for achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the Paris Climate Conference (COP21), many countries start progressing towards carbon neutrality targets. In doing so, green technology innovations (GTIs) and clean energy are the essential factors that can help to achieve the carbon neutrality goal. Therefore, this paper examines the linkages between green technology innovation and renewable energy and carbon dioxide emissions based on the STIRPAT model in Turkey during the time of 1990–2018. The study used testing like "unit-root" to verify the variables' integrative properties containing the information for structural breaks. Also, the bootstrapping ARDL-bound testing technique is used to analyze the relationship between the variables. The causal relationship between green technology innovation, energy consumption, renewable energy, population, income per capita, and carbon dioxide emissions is tested through a Granger causality test. The empirical findings show that green technology innovation, renewable energy, energy consumption, population, income per capita, and carbon dioxide emissions are co-integrated for the long-term association. Additionally, green technology innovation and renewable energy decline carbon dioxide emissions, whereas energy consumption, population, and per capita enhance carbon emissions. This paper helps the policymakers design a comprehensive policy for strengthening environmental sustainability through green technology innovation and renewable energy, specifically in the region of Turkey. • Examine the impact of GTIs and renewable energy on CO 2 emissions in Turkey. • We employed bootstrapping ARDL-bound testing technique. • GTIs and renewable energy are lowering CO 2 emissions. • Non-renewable energy consumption boosts CO2 emissions. • Population and personal income are also determinantal to carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a major carbon dioxide-emitting country, China set carbon trading market to reduce enterprise carbon emissions through the rational allocation of carbon quotas among different enterprises and regions. The market has also conducted a preliminary exploration for the country to achieve carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 while actively addressing the challenges of global climate change. This study analysed the emission reduction effect of China's carbon trading pilot policy, especially the role of carbon quota and carbon trading price. The analysis used county-level panel data from 1997 to 2017, regarded the implementation of the carbon trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, and used the difference-in-differences method. The results showed that, first, the policy implementation not only reduced regional carbon emissions but also inhibited carbon dioxide emissions per capita, with long-term effects. Second, the carbon emission reduction effect brought by the carbon pilot policy showed significant heterogeneous results with the different degrees of regional carbon emissions and environmental supervision. The effect was greater in areas with higher carbon emission density and stronger legal supervision. Third, the difference in carbon quota allocations resulted in different emission reduction effects, among which the historical method had the strongest effect. The carbon quota price and number of enterprises participating carbon trading market were the key factors affecting carbon emission reduction. • This paper investigates the impact of carbon emission trading market on the carbon reduction. • China provides an excellent "Quasi-natural Experiment" for assessing the role of carbon emission trading market in environmental management. • It is found that policy implementation has significantly reduced various types of carbon emissions, and this reduction effect is long-term. • Stimulating the vitality of the carbon market and expanding the supply and demand of carbon quotas are the main ways to achieve carbon emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expansion of road networks in emerging economies such as China causes significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This development is conflicting with China's commitment to achieve carbon neutrality. Thus, there is a need to better understand life cycle emissions of road infrastructure and opportunities to mitigate these emissions. Existing impact studies of roads in developing countries do not address recycled materials, improved pavement maintenance, or pavement-vehicle interaction and electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Combining firsthand information from Chinese road construction engineers with publicly available data, this paper estimates a comprehensive account of GHG emissions of the road pavement network to be constructed in the next ten years in the Shandong province in Northern China. Further, we estimate the potential of GHG emission reductions achievable under three scenario sets: maintenance optimization, alternative pavement material replacement, and EV adoption. Results show that the life cycle GHG emissions of highways and Class 1–4 roads to be constructed in the next 10 years amount to 147 Mt CO2-eq. Considering the use phase in our model reveals that it is the dominant stage in terms of emissions, largely due to pavement-vehicle interaction. Vehicle electrification can only moderately mitigate these emissions. Other stages, such as materials production and road maintenance and rehabilitation, contribute substantially to GHG emissions as well, highlighting the importance of optimizing the management of these stages. Surprisingly, longer, not shorter maintenance intervals, yield significant emission reductions. Another counter-intuitive finding is that thicker and more material-intensive pavement surfaces cause lower emissions overall. Taken together, optimal maintenance and rehabilitation schedules, alternative material use, and vehicle electrification provide GHG reduction potentials of 11%, 4%–16% and 2%–6%, respectively. • Road construction implies significant amounts of GHG emissions. • China's road expansion plans are at odds with its target of GHG neutrality. • We assess GHG emissions of Shandong's roads to be constructed through 2030. • We combine life cycle assessment based on primary data with a new optimization model. • Individual mitigation measures can reduce life cycle GHG emissions by up to 16%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing carbon neutral targets claimed by responsible countries, many research has been done to investigate the impact of environmental regulation on green technology innovation (GTI). However, there still remains a gap at micro level that takes enterprise as research subject to figure out an effective regulatory mechanism that supports the development of GTI. Since the integration of technology and finance is the main trend in future progress of GTI, it is meaningful to study the decision-making behavior and influencing factors of heterogenous enterprises and banks under market-based environmental regulation policies. This paper established a tripartite evolutionary game model among two types of enterprises with distinct Research & Development (R&D) ability and banks. The results show that: (1) the scenario when subsidy to enterprises is greater than to banks leads to a better situation; (2) penalty has more significant influence on enterprises than subsidies at the early stage, and enterprises' strategic choices of independent R&D is more reliable on subsidies; (3) when the price gap between different levels of technology increases, enterprises are inclined to continuously invest in green R&D, while it will restrain enterprises' technology introduction behavior. • Market-based environmental regulation contains subsidy, penalty and trading market. • That subsidy to enterprises is greater than to banks leads to a better scenario to stimulate GTI. • Penalty has more significant influence on enterprises than subsidy at the early stage. • Enterprises' strategic choice of independent R&D is more reliable on the subsidy. • There exists a tradeoff between independent R&D and technology introduction when pricing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we identify the causal effects of the industrial transfer policy (ITP) on carbon emissions. Specifically, we treat the demonstration zones of undertaking industrial transfer in China as a quasi-natural experiment and evaluation its carbon mitigation effects using the difference-in-differences (DID) and matching DID strategies. Our findings suggest that the ITP exerts a significant negative impact on carbon emissions. In particular, both the DID and matching DID estimates indicate that the ITP leads to mitigate carbon emissions by approximately 4.9 and 4.7 million tons, respectively. We also investigate the heterogeneous carbon mitigation effects of the ITP. Moreover, various checks and falsification tests are also presented to confirm the causal effects, including the placebo test, concurrent events test, alternative measures of the ITP and carbon emissions, alternative estimation method and matching technique. The results indicate that our key conclusion, the carbon mitigation effect of the ITP is robust. These results indicate that policymakers should seize the carbon mitigation dividend of the ITP to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Policymakers should also reduce the regional development differences, improve the level of opening to the outside world, strengthen the construction of green demonstration zones for industrial transfer to mitigate carbon emissions. • The carbon mitigation effects of the demonstration zones of undertaking industrial transfer in China are investigated. • The industrial transfer policy leads to mitigate carbon emissions by approximately 4.7 million tons. • The heterogeneous carbon mitigation effects of the industrial transfer policy are examined. • The results are supported by robustness and falsification checks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A ccelerating the development of renewable energy is seen as an effective way for achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The polices of Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) and Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) play increasing and important roles in developing renewable energy. In this paper, we develop an analytical model to analyze the impacts of the interaction of RES and REC polices on the renewable energy investment levels of an electricity generation firm and the carbon emissions. Our analysis reveals several interesting insights. First, we find that the green tags price under REC policy has a non-monotonic effect on the renewable energy investment, which highly depends on the quota (i.e., the required percentage of renewable electricity consumption on total electricity consumption) under the RES policy. Specifically, when the quota in RES policy is set too high, an increase in the green tags price will increase renewable energy investment; otherwise it will reduce the electricity generation firm's incentive to invest in renewable energy. Second, we show that the green tags price also has a non-monotonic effect on the carbon emissions. Specifically, when the quota in RES policy is set small enough, an increase in the green tags price will decrease the carbon emission. However, when the quota in RES policy is high enough, an increase in the green tags price will increase the carbon emission. • Impacts of green tags price on renewable energy investment are analyzed. • Impacts of green tags price on carbon emissions are analyzed. • Green tags price has a non-monotonic effect on the renewable energy investment. • Green tags price has a non-monotonic effect on the carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emissions play a crucial role in inducing global warming and climate change. Accurate and stable carbon emissions forecasting is beneficial for formulating emissions reduction schemes and achieving carbon neutrality as early as possible. Although previous studies have concentrated on employing one or several methods for carbon emissions forecasting, the improvement in forecasting performance is limited because they ignore the importance of objectively selecting the models and the necessity of interval forecasting. In this paper, a novel ensemble prediction system, composed of data decomposition, model selection, phase space reconstruction, ensemble point prediction, and interval prediction, is proposed to conduct both point and interval predictions, which has been proven to be effective in prompting carbon emissions forecasting accuracy and stability. According to the empirical results, the mean MAPE results of our proposed forecasting strategy in point prediction are 1.1102% (in Dataset A) and 1.1382% (in Dataset B), and the mean CWC values in the interval forecasting are 0.3512 and 0.1572, respectively. Thus, the proposed forecasting system improves the forecasting performance relative to other models considerably, which can provide meaningful references for policymakers. • An ensemble forecasting system is developed for carbon management. • Comprehensive indicator is proposed to determine the best predictor adaptively. • Optimal distribution and reduction coefficient are used for interval forecasting. • Multi-objective tangent search algorithm is proposed for interval forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While being affected by economic and hydrological conditions, the behaviors of water market participants can also be caused by their psychological characteristics and social stimuli of the environment. This paper employs agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate a local groundwater market in central Iran. The proposed ABM framework couples social, economic, and hydrological sub-models. The social sub-model benefits from the theory of planned behavior under field studies to design psychology-based behaviors of trading agents. Moreover, in continuous interaction with the FlowLogo hydrological sub-model, the economic sub-model simulates the inter-sectoral water trading under a double-auction mechanism. The inter-sectoral trading includes selling the farms' irrigation water to the industry sector. The calibration and validation results for an eight-year simulation period (2010–2018) confirm the acceptable performance of the proposed ABM framework. Water trading patterns experience relatively extreme variations in the first years. However, with the adaption of the agents' bids to the market conditions, they gradually emerge in a more stable form in the last years. Furthermore, updating the psychological factors increases the agents' intention of participating in the market, and thus, the competition level over time. Finally, the hydro-economic analysis reveals that implementing the dynamic cap-and-trade policy increases the total net benefits of market participants by an average of 27% per year while reducing the region's groundwater drawdown by 56 cm. Such inter-sectoral water markets can help with the sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources. [Display omitted] • An agent-based model dynamically integrates the hydro-economic concepts with the psychology-based behaviors of trading agents in inter-sectoral groundwater markets. • Participant's psychological factors gradually increase the market's competition level. • The cap-and-trade policy can help with the sustainable exploitation of the limited groundwater resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, all countries have producing different levels of carbon emissions and also facing both the problems of climate change and global warming due high carbon emissions in the atmosphere. Therefore, it is important to cutting carbon emissions in the atmosphere. This is only possible by switching to cleaner fuels, use of innovation technologies and development of carbon capture storages. These can substantially help the nations to reaching carbon neutrality. Given this background, t his paper examines the effect of disaggregated energy consumption, technological innovations, capital on economic output and CO 2 emissions in India for the period of 1990–2018. Based on empirical analysis, our long-run elasticities indicate that disaggregated energy consumption and technological innovations have a positive impact on economic growth, while renewable energy consumption and technological innovations have a positive impact on CO 2 emissions. It implies that more use of energy consumption producing significant amount of CO 2 emissions and by using renewable energy consumption and technological innovations (i.e. carbon capture storages) can significantly lowering CO 2 emissions, which is clearly indicating that India has moving towards carbon neutrality. The causality analysis further indicates a unidirectional causal relationship running from disaggregated energy usage to economic growth and carbon emissions. These empirical findings suggest that the increased consumption of renewable power does not lead to rise carbon emissions, which, in turn, ensures sustainable economic growth. • Examines the disaggregated energy consumption, technological innovations, capital on economic output and CO 2 emissions. • Time series data from 1990 to 2018 was used to analyze the empirical results. • Disaggregated energy consumption and technological innovations have a positive impact on economic growth. • Renewable energy consumption and technological innovations have a positive impact on CO 2 emissions. • Suggest that increased in consumption of renewable power does not lead to rise carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement (COP21) sets out a global framework to limit global warming below 2C. Therefore, the target of carbon neutrality has a key role. In this context, countries have implemented cap-and-trade markets of carbon emissions allowances to manage the impact of CO2 released by companies. Over recent years, cryptocurrencies have given a new drive to pollution because of the massive energy consumption of mining activity. This paper investigates the tail relationship between the carbon credit market and the price of Bitcoin. For this purpose, we use two novel econometric models: the multivariate-quantile conditional autoregressive (MVMQ-CAViaR) model and Granger causality across quantiles. The results suggest that there is a downside risk spillover, i.e., tail co-dependence. We find that Bitcoin spillovers have a stronger impact on the carbon market. On the other hand, we show that the carbon market does not Granger-cause Bitcoin. The results of the Granger analysis confirm the multivariate quantile model's findings, i.e., Bitcoin influences the carbon market in the lower quantiles. We deem our results useful for policymakers to improve the framework of carbon emissions allowances. • We study the tail relationship between the carbon credit market and Bitcoin's price. • The MVQM-CAViaR model and Granger causality across quantiles are applied. • Results show extreme downside spillovers from Bitcoin to the carbon credit market. • We document the presence of heterogeneity in shock transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial development has been found to have mixed effects on CO2 emissions. One reason appears to be the relationship is not linear, as is assumed in most earlier studies. This paper re-examines the relationship between financial development and CO2 emissions based on a panel data of 61 countries categorised as high- and middle-income economies, from 1990 to 2018. This study uses the linear ARDL and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) methods to analyse the impact of positive and negative shocks in financial development on CO2 emissions. Additionally, the panel causality between the variables is also investigated. The analyses from ARDL and NARDL reveal that in the long run, financial development helps to minimise CO2 emissions for high income economies, but it raises CO2 emissions and thereby decreases environmental quality for middle-income economies. Supporting our nonlinear hypothesis, we find that both negative and positive shocks of financial development have significant impacts on CO2 emissions, while the latter have a more profound effect. In particular, the findings suggest that the impacts of financial development on CO2 emissions are distinctive in high- and middle-income economies, leading to useful policy implications, including the suggestion that international development bodies help middle-income countries to incorporate consideration of environmental effects into the operation of their financial institutions and systems at an earlier stage of development than would generally be the case. • Financial development helps to minimise CO2 emissions for high income economies. • For middle income economies, financial development decreases environmental quality. • Financial development and CO2 emissions nexus shows more clearly with nonlinearity. • Positive shocks of financial development have profound effect on CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the reforms pertaining to the energy structure in the automotive industry, new energy vehicles (NEVs) have long been the focus of government attention, as an effective means to reduce air pollution. Therefore, this paper employs the rolling-window Granger causality test, in order to discuss the environmental benefits of new energy vehicles, so as to explore the active role of the transportation sector in reducing air pollution. By studying the interactions between NEVs and particulate matter (PM 2.5) from the time period spanning from 2013:M1 to 2020:M9, we have found that the positive influences from NEVs to PM 2.5 ascertain that NEVs cannot be considered as an efficient measure to mitigate air pollution. Moreover, these results are not supported by the energy and environment interaction model, which essentially indicates that replacing traditional energy with renewable energy is an effective measure for controlling environmental pollution. In fact, PM 2.5 tends to have a negative impact on NEVs, which underlines that the air quality index is a leading indicator, particularly when it comes to analyzing the development of the NEVs market. This essentially highlights that in China, NEVs still do not account for a high proportion of car sales, and therefore, its environmental protection effect is not obvious. At the same time, the factor of public awareness regarding environmental protection will thus occupy a considerable proportion in the transmission of NEVs sales. These revelations will help the government to formulate environmental governance policies, and expand the new energy vehicle market to achieve carbon neutrality targets in China. • The impact of NEVs on particulate matter (PM2.5) to investigate the role of the transport sector in mitigating air pollution. • NEVs can not be considered as an efficient measure to mitigate air pollution. • Not supported by the energy and environment interaction model. • The public's awareness of environmental protection will occupy a considerable proportion in the transmission of NEVs sales. • Help the government to formulate environmental governance policies and expand the new energy vehicle market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]