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High carbon emissions and population aging are two obstacles to China's development as an emerging economy. It is urgent to scientifically examine the impacts of population aging on carbon emissions to discover new pathways for urban carbon emission reduction. However, existing studies face challenges in terms of focusing on and methodology for accurately capturing the role of industrial production and energy consumption in the environmental effects of population aging. This paper constructs a chain mediation analytical framework and systematically examines the intrinsic linkages between population aging and carbon emissions in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020 using a two-way fixed effects model. This paper has three main findings. (1) The positive correlation between urban population aging and carbon emissions development is generally low, with coupling coordination degree values of 0.4233, 0.4458, 0.4220, 0.4715, and 0.4665 for each yearly cross-section. (2) For every 1% increase in the population aging rate, carbon emissions decrease by 0.3478% on average. The carbon reduction effect of population aging is significantly greater in low-emissions cities and high-income cities than in other cities. (3) The industrial upgrading (IU) path, energy conservation (EC) path and chain mediation (CM) path account for 72.43%, 7.23% and 20.34%, respectively, of the indirect effects. If the causal link between IU and EC is not considered, the EC effect will be overestimated by 281.16%. The results of the study suggest that properly coping with population aging and reducing carbon emissions are not completely opposed to each other, a conclusion that passes both endogeneity exclusion and robustness check. This paper advocates replacing the one-size-fits-all approach in carbon emissions management and investing more in policy preferences to support carbon emission reduction in both high-emissions and low-income cities. [Display omitted] •The synergistic trends of carbon emissions and population aging are not apparent. •Population aging significantly reduces carbon emissions at the city scale. •Linkage effect of industrial upgrading and energy conservation on carbon emission reduction. •Energy conservation effect of population aging amplified by industrial upgrading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs a carbon quota allocation index that takes into account equity, efficiency and ecological construction, and calculates carbon emissions and energy consumption data in important periods based on the expected carbon emission targets and economic and social development indicators of the Chinese government. Based on the calculated carbon emissions, the zero-sum game data Envelopment model (ZSG-DEA) is used to discuss the initial allocation of regional quotas and the optimal carbon quota scheme. The results show that:(1) there is a large gap between the optimal carbon quota and the initial carbon quota allocation in Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other provinces in 2025, and the implementation of emission reduction measures should be accelerated. (2) By 2030, the final allocation of Beijing, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shanghai, Ningxia, Liaoning and Xinjiang will be positive. The provinces with negative final allocation should carry out the work of carbon peak as soon as possible to avoid increasing the pressure of emission reduction in the future. (3) The central region faces greater pressure of emission reduction, while the western region can accept the transfer of carbon emissions from other regions over time. The research conclusions have important policy implications for establishing a fair and effective carbon quota allocation mechanism, achieving the national total carbon emission control target, stimulating the vitality of the unified carbon market, and promoting regional coordinated emission reduction. • There exist differences in carbon quota allocation among provinces in the future. • There are changes in the initial and optimal carbon quotas obtained by each province. • The role of carbon emissions between regions is changing over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric pollution emissions have become a matter of public concern in recent years. However, most of the existing researches on NOx pollution are from the natural science and technology perspective, few studies have been conducted from an economic point, and regional differences have not been given adequate attention. This paper adopts provincial panel data from 2006 to 2013 and the LMDI model to analyze the key driving factors and regional dilemmas of NOx emissions. The results show that significant regional disparities still exit on NO x emissions and its reduction effect 27 provinces didn't accomplish their corresponding reduction targets. Economic development factor is the dominating driving factor of NO x emissions during the study period, while energy efficiency and technology improvement factors offset total NO x emissions in the majority of provinces. In addition, the industrial structure factor plays a more significant role in reducing the NO x emissions after 2011. Therefore, the government should consider all these factors as well as regional heterogeneity in developing appropriate pollution mitigating policies. It's necessary to change NOx emissions control attitude from original key areas control to divided-zone control, not only attaches great importance to the reduction of the original key areas, but also emphasizes the new potential hotspots with high NO x emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inter-basin water transfers are intended to have a positive impact on the development of a region, but are always accompanied by huge energy consumption. The feasibility and effectiveness of water transfer projects have not yet been clearly evaluated, especially in the light of their energy consumption and effects on social development. This paper develops a method that combines life cycle approach and system dynamic model to reveal the effectiveness of different water supply alternatives (transferred water, reclaimed wastewater and rainwater harvesting) when they are all constrained to consume equal energy. This approach is applied to the case of Jinan city in Shandong province, China, the main water-receiving city on the Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (ER-SNWTP). The results show that in normal years, Jinan's reclaimed water and rainwater harvesting supply are effective replacements for transferred water under the constraints of equal energy consumption and capital costs; even in dry years these two alternatives still play an important role. The results of this study indicate the relative effectiveness of reclaimed water and rainwater harvesting in supplying urban water while conserving energy and capital. • Using a new evaluation approach for urban water supply alternatives analysis. • Local water and transferred water have similar supporting role to the receiving city in the east route of SNWTP; • Local water option has less environmental impact and lower financial cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the enlarging inter-provincial disparities in China as regards carbon emissions and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit gross domestic product), this paper is the first study to investigate the inter-provincial carbon imbalance by constructing and employing the Kaya-Zenga index. We use China's panel data of provincial-level carbon emissions over 1995–2016 to quantitatively measure the levels of inter-provincial imbalance and polarization in carbon emissions and carbon intensity. Further, we decompose the Kaya-Zenga index into different contributing factors both regionally and structurally and perform a scenario analysis to identify the corresponding regionally differentiated countermeasures regarding carbon emission reduction. The results show that the imbalance in carbon emissions is mainly caused by imbalances in population scale and income level, while the imbalance in carbon intensity predominantly results from imbalances in energy efficiency and energy mix. In addition, for heavy manufacturing provinces, the respective emission-reduction strategy should aim at lowering energy intensity through local technology improvement and inter-regional technology transfer. For light manufacturing and high technology provinces, carbon emission reduction is harder to be achieved; however, a mix of policies of improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy mix, and industrial upgrading should be implemented. The results of the scenario analysis indicate that reducing imbalance in carbon intensity under different scenarios can lead to a substantial reduction in carbon emissions (up to 10%). • We investigate the inter-provincial carbon imbalance within China. • We construct the Kaya-Zenga index and decompose the index into four contributors. • We use a panel data set of 30 provincial-level regions in China over 1995–2016. • Carbon imbalance is mainly caused by imbalances in population and energy efficiency. • Reducing intra-group imbalance in carbon intensity can abate carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To tackle climate change, Chinese government has applied an array of mitigating measures to reduce CO2 emissions. During the 11th Five-year Plan, Chinese government set the emission reduction target policy to reduce energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by 20%. This paper attempts to estimate the effect of this emission reduction target policy on industrial performance from complexity perspective. The result shows more complex industrial structure is related to less coal consumption. In general, emission reduction target policy has a negative effect on the probability of branching into new industries and lower the productivity and profitability of a given industry. However, this negative effect is weaker for more complex industries. Only for industries with very high complexity, emission reduction target policy can improve the performance of an industry rather than exerting a negative effect. Our finding not only helps to design a more effective policy to achieve industrial development strategy, but also provides a potential way to achieve economic growth while reduce the emission of greenhouse gases at the same time. • We investigate the impact of Emission reduction target policy(ERT) on industrial performance from complexity perspective. • We apply the method of reflection to calculate the Economic Complexity of provinces and Industry Complexity of industries. • More complex industrial structure contributes to the coal consumption reduction. • ERT has negative effects on the probability of branching into new industries, lowers the productivity and profitability of a given industry. • ERT has weaker negative effects for more complex industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]