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The total emission control target of water pollutants (e.g., COD and NH 4 –N) for a certain industrial sector can be predicted and analysed using the popular technology-based bottom-up modelling. However, this methodology has obvious uncertainty regarding the attainment of mitigation targets. The primary uncertainty comes from macro-production, pollutant reduction roadmap, and technical parameters. This research takes the paper and pulp industry in China as an example, and builds 5 mitigation scenarios via different combinations of raw material structure, scale structure, procedure mitigation technology, and end-of-pipe treatment technology. Using the methodology of uncertainty analysis via Monte Carlo, random sampling was conducted over a hundred thousand times. According to key parameters, sensitive parameters that impact total emission control targets such as industrial output, technique structure, cleaner production technology, and end-of-pipe treatment technology are discussed in this article. It appears that scenario uncertainty has a larger influence on COD emission than NH 4 –N, hence it is recommended that a looser total emission control target for COD is necessary to increase its feasibility and availability while maintaining the status quo of NH 4 –N. Consequently, from uncertainty analysis, this research recognizes the sensitive products, techniques, and technologies affecting industrial water pollution.