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This paper presents a new framework for decision making in sustainable drainage system (SuDS) scheme design. It integrates resilience, hydraulic performance, pollution control, rainwater usage, energy analysis, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs, and has 12 indicators. The multi-criteria analysis methods of entropy weight and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) were selected to support SuDS scheme selection. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated with a SuDS case in China. Indicators used include flood volume, flood duration, a hydraulic performance indicator, cost and resilience. Resilience is an important design consideration, and it supports scheme selection in the case study. The proposed framework will help a decision maker to choose an appropriate design scheme for implementation without subjectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this research was to conduct a performance evaluation of three food waste/biowaste-to-biogas pilot projects across 7 scenarios in China based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodology. The projects ranked included a food waste-biogas project in Beijing, a food waste-biogas project in Suzhou and a co-digestion project producing biomethane in Hainan. The projects were ranked from best to worst based on technical, economic and environmental criteria under the MCDA framework. The results demonstrated that some projects are encountering operational problems. Based on these findings, six national policy recommendations were provided: (1) shift away from capital investment subsidies to performance-based subsidies; (2) re-design feed in tariffs; (3) promote bio-methane and project clustering; (4) improve collection efficiency by incentivizing FW producers to direct waste to biogas projects; (5) incentivize biogas projects to produce multiple outputs; (6) incentivize food waste-based projects to co-digest food waste with other substrates for higher gas output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable biodiversity and land management require a cost-effective means of forecasting landscape response to environmental change. Conventional species-based, regional biodiversity assessments are rarely adequate for policy planning and decision making. We show how new ground and remotely-sensed survey methods can be coordinated to help elucidate and predict relationships between biodiversity, land use and soil properties along complex biophysical gradients that typify many similar landscapes worldwide. In the lower Zambezi valley, Mozambique we used environmental, gradient-directed transects (gradsects) to sample vascular plant species, plant functional types, vegetation structure, soil properties and land-use characteristics. Soil fertility indices were derived using novel multidimensional scaling of soil properties. To facilitate spatial analysis, we applied a probabilistic remote sensing approach, analyzing Landsat 7 satellite imagery to map photosynthetically active and inactive vegetation and bare soil along each gradsect. Despite the relatively low sample number, we found highly significant correlations between single and combined sets of specific plant, soil and remotely sensed variables that permitted testable spatial projections of biodiversity and soil fertility across the regional land-use mosaic. This integrative and rapid approach provides a low-cost, high-return and readily transferable methodology that permits the ready identification of testable biodiversity indicators for adaptive management of biodiversity and potential agricultural productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU Soil Thematic Strategy calls for the application of sustainability concepts and methods as part of an integrated policy to prevent soil degradation and to increase the re-use of brownfields. Although certain general principles have been proposed for the evaluation of sustainable development, the practical application of sustainability assessment tools (SATs) is contingent on the actual requirements of tool users, e.g. planners or investors, to pick up such instruments in actual decision making. We examine the normative sustainability principles that need to be taken into account in order to make sound land-use decisions between new development on greenfield sites and the regeneration of brownfields – and relate these principles to empirically observed user requirements and the properties of available SATs. In this way we provide an overview of approaches to sustainability assessment. Three stylized approaches, represented in each case by a typical tool selected from the literature, are presented and contrasted with (1) the norm-oriented Bellagio sustainability principles and (2) the requirements of three different stakeholder groups: decision makers, scientists/experts and representatives of the general public. The paper disentangles some of the inevitable trade-offs involved in seeking to implement sustainable land-use planning, i.e. between norm orientation and holism, broad participation and effective communication. It concludes with the controversial assessment that there are no perfect tools and that to be meaningful the user requirements of decision makers must take precedence over those of other interest groups in the design of SATs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Is local participation always optimal for sustainable action? Here, Local Agenda 21 is a relevant case as it broadly calls for consensus-building among stakeholders. Consensus-building is, however, costly. We show that the costs of making local decisions are likely to rapidly exceed the benefits. Why? Because as the number of participants grows, the more likely it is that the group will include individuals who have an extreme position and are unwilling to make compromises. Thus, the net gain of self-organization should be compared with those of its alternatives, for example voting, market-solutions, or not making any choices at all. Even though the informational value of meetings may be helpful to policy makers, the model shows that it also decreases as the number of participants increase. Overall, the result is a thought provoking scenario for Local Agenda 21 as it highlights the risk of less sustainable action in the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Environmental policy and decision-making are characterized by complex interactions between different actors and sectors. As a rule, a stakeholder analysis is performed to understand those involved, but it has been criticized for lacking quality and consistency. This lack is remedied here by a formal social network analysis that investigates collaborative and multi-level governance settings in a rigorous way. We examine the added value of combining both elements. Our case study examines infrastructure planning in the Swiss water sector. Water supply and wastewater infrastructures are planned far into the future, usually on the basis of projections of past boundary conditions. They affect many actors, including the population, and are expensive. In view of increasing future dynamics and climate change, a more participatory and long-term planning approach is required. Our specific aims are to investigate fragmentation in water infrastructure planning, to understand how actors from different decision levels and sectors are represented, and which interests they follow. We conducted 27 semi-structured interviews with local stakeholders, but also cantonal and national actors. The network analysis confirmed our hypothesis of strong fragmentation: we found little collaboration between the water supply and wastewater sector (confirming horizontal fragmentation), and few ties between local, cantonal, and national actors (confirming vertical fragmentation). Infrastructure planning is clearly dominated by engineers and local authorities. Little importance is placed on longer-term strategic objectives and integrated catchment planning, but this was perceived as more important in a second analysis going beyond typical questions of stakeholder analysis. We conclude that linking a stakeholder analysis, comprising rarely asked questions, with a rigorous social network analysis is very fruitful and generates complementary results. This combination gave us deeper insight into the socio-political-engineering world of water infrastructure planning that is of vital importance to our well-being. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Scenario planning is one of the most prominent methods applied by organisations to assist long-term decision making. This paper uses a case study method to demonstrate how scenarios can be operationalised to inform future strategies and to challenge rigid silo-based decision making approaches. The WaterProof Northwest scenarios developed by the authors in collaboration with a range of stakeholders, and described within this paper, offer a platform for considering the future of the water environment. The scenarios were developed in the context of meeting the goals of the European Water Framework Directive. This Directive has the core aim of improving the chemical and ecological status of Europe''s water bodies. The scenarios highlight that water bodies in the case study area (the region of Northwest England) are impacted directly by a wide array of driving forces which will affect the state of the water environment over the coming decades. This analysis demonstrates that organisations responsible for creating and implementing long-term plans and policies to manage water are often far removed from the forces that will influence the effectiveness of the exercises that they are engaged in. The WaterProof Northwest scenarios highlight that organisations need different decision making approaches in order to adapt to modern environmental challenges. They also raise questions over whether environmental legislation such as the Water Framework Directive should incorporate a futures perspective in recognition of the wide ranging forces influencing their implementation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Participation has emerged as an appropriate approach for enhancing natural resources management. However, despite long experimentation with participation, there are still possibilities for improvement in designing a process of stakeholder involvement by addressing stakeholder heterogeneity and the complexity of decision-making processes. This paper provides a state-of-the-art overview of methods. It proposes a comprehensive framework to implement stakeholder participation in environmental projects, from stakeholder identification to evaluation. For each process within this framework, techniques are reviewed and practical tools proposed. The aim of this paper is to establish methods to determine who should participate, when and how. The application of this framework to one river restoration case study in Switzerland will illustrate its strengths and weaknesses. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) are among the most threatened ecosystems globally in spite of their high strategic value for sustainable development due to the key role played by these forests in hydrological cycle maintenance and as reservoirs of endemic biodiversity. Resources for effective conservation and management programs are rarely sufficient, and criteria must be applied to prioritise TMCF for conservation action. This paper reports a priority analysis of the 13 main regions of TMCF distribution in Mexico, based on four criteria: (1) forest quality, (2) threats to forest permanence, (3) threats to forest integrity, and (4) opportunities for conservation. Due to the diverse socio-environmental conditions of the local communities living in Mexican TMCF regions, their associated social characteristics were also evaluated to provide a background for the planning of conservation actions. A set of indicators was defined for the measurement of each criterion. To assign priority values for subregions within each main region, an international team of 40 participants evaluated all the indicators using multicriteria decision-making analysis. This procedure enabled the identification of 15 subregions of critical priority, 17 of high priority, and 10 of medium priority; three more were not analysed due to lack of information. The evaluation revealed a number of subjects that had hitherto been undetected and that may prove useful for prioritisation efforts in other regions where TMCF is similarly documented and faces equally severe threats. Based on this analysis, key recommendations are outlined to advance conservation objectives in those TMCF areas that are subjected to high pressure on forest resources. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes an approach to account for asymmetric preference formation in discrete choice models used for environmental valuation. The paper draws on data from a case study on preferences for environmental change resulting from a hypothetical rural development and conservation programme in Indonesia. Local knowledge on the current state of the environment was used to define an individual-specific status quo that consistently frames changes in a range of environmental services as gains or losses matching the perceptions of the local population living in the vicinity of a National Park. I estimated choice models that included separate parameters for increases and decreases in attribute levels for the environmental services and derived the indicators of local willingness to pay (WTP) corresponding to the bidirectional changes relative to the individual-specific status quo option. I found clear evidence of an asymmetric response to increase and decrease in attribute levels relative to the status quo. Ignoring asymmetric preference formation can therefore result in biased estimates of WTP indicators and welfare measures of change in cases where the outcomes of environmental programmes can plausibly result in both an increase and a decrease relative to a reference option. Compared to a symmetrical modelling approach, the combination of simultaneously accounting for asymmetric preference formation and preference heterogeneity in the choice model yielded additional insights that may be used to inform the development of local strategies towards biodiversity conservation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Decisions focused on managing natural resources in developing areas present some of the most imposing challenges to policy makers, scientists, and stakeholders alike. The response of policy makers and the technical community in the face of these challenges has been significant. However, our experiences as researchers and facilitators of group planning and decision-making processes have left us concerned about the lack of attention devoted to supporting the underlying processes used to make these complex decisions. To this end, we present five propositions based on work in the decision sciences that we believe stand out as essential for improving decision-making processes in developing communities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Intractable industrial legacies present new challenges to governance. Amongst the persistent organic pollutants, now managed internationally under the Stockholm Convention, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) stands out in all three classes of chemicals (pesticides, industrial chemicals and unintended by-products). This paper introduces twelve interdisciplinary papers contributing to our understanding of decision-making processes using a case study of HCB and industry–community relations in Sydney's industrial heartland. In this collection, authors align new political theory and emerging management theory, and they analyse the case study from several disciplines. Disputes such as that over HCB destablilise the political/administrative/technoscientific regime that is the modern state. Citizens engage in ‘sub-political’ processes which require recognition of what Ulrich Beck and others have termed ‘individualisation’. This sees decision-forming and decision-making functions push outwards into community-driven structures. There we find new styles of public participation, resolution of asymmetries between knowledge and expertise, and new corporate behaviour. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Program stakeholders are interested in better understanding farmers'' experience, and factors that affect farmer participation in the relatively new Environmental Farm Plan (EFP) program, implemented in several provinces in Canada. To increase relevance of the research findings to EFP program administrators and policy makers, the research methods emphasised determining whether relationships exist among program-related variables, and how such relationships affect farmers'' decision choices and behaviour. Traditional farmer and farm attributes that have contrasting effects in agricultural innovation adoption and conservation management (namely age, and formal education completed), were not associated with EFP program participation. Farm income, years of farming experience, and type of agribusiness managed were associated with participation in the Nova Scotia EFP program. Although program participants tended to have higher incomes, overall, non-financial considerations dominated monetary considerations in Nova Scotia farmers'' reasons for participating in the Nova Scotia EFP. Helping to publicize positive farm stewardship practices was reported as the most important reason for participating in the EFP scheme, followed by its use to help improve relationships with non-farming neighbours, and to comply with government environmental regulations. In contrast, and somewhat a surprising finding, minimizing potential farm environmental risk, program administrators'' raison d''être for promoting the NS EFP, was ranked the lowest, with no respondent rating that as a “very important” or “extremely important” reason for participating in the EFP program. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The conservation of biodiversity is an important issue world wide and in Australia the maintenance of native biodiversity on farms makes an important contribution to overall conservation objectives. This paper seeks to explain Australian farmers'' rationale for maintaining biodiversity on their farms for personal as opposed to business reasons by developing a decision-systems theory from in-depth interviews. This difference has implications for policy development. The decision-systems theory is divided into two main sections. The first section contains five parts. (1) A hierarchy of motivation stories, (2) the concept of suitability and availability of opportunities, (3) a hierarchy of three decision-systems, (4) the concept of personal career paths, (5) the concept of Lenses. The second section contains one part, a policy classification system called ‘boxes of influence’ that suggests how policy developers can use the information in the first section to develop new biodiversity conservation policy. The paper suggests that decision-systems theory could be used to shed new light on current trends in agriculture and become an important investigative tool for policy development concerning the conservation of biodiversity on farms. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Environmental policies and guidelines often specify standards for environmental indicators. The first part of this paper argues that, where compliance with these standards is assessed with the help of statistical inference, an inference employing a three-alternatives decision rule can provide more sensible feedback to environmental managers for precautionary decision-making. The second part of the paper shows how a three-alternatives statistical inference about compliance with a percentile standard might be applied to a small number of observations using a non-parametric binomial interval. This interval expression of uncertainty results in the sample size requirements for various percentile ranks becoming explicit. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Co-management, or the joint management of the commons, is often formulated in terms of some arrangement of power sharing between the State and a community of resource users. In reality, there often are multiple local interests and multiple government agencies at play, and co-management can hardly be understood as the interaction of a unitary State and a homogeneous community. An approach focusing on the legal aspects of co-management, and emphasizing the formal structure of arrangements (how governance is configured) runs the risk of neglecting the functional side of co-management. An alternative approach is to start from the assumption that co-management is a continuous problem-solving process, rather than a fixed state, involving extensive deliberation, negotiation and joint learning within problem-solving networks. This presumption implies that co-management research should preferably focus on how different management tasks are organized and distributed concentrating on the function, rather than the structure, of the system. Such an approach has the effect of highlighting that power sharing is the result, and not the starting point, of the process. This kind of research approach might employ the steps of (1) defining the social-ecological system under focus; (2) mapping the essential management tasks and problems to be solved; (3) clarifying the participants in the problem-solving processes; (4) analyzing linkages in the system, in particular across levels of organization and across geographical space; (5) evaluating capacity-building needs for enhancing the skills and capabilities of people and institutions at various levels; and (6) prescribing ways to improve policy making and problem-solving. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents the first principles of the MameLuke framework, an agent-based modelling framework for studying environmental issues and land use and cover change (LUCC). The MameLuke framework enhances the understanding of the relationship between societal processes and LUCC by modelling individual and group decisions and human–environment interactions.The framework allows for the transformation of real-life stories into computerised models following a predetermined sequence. By doing so, the framework allows for a truly integrative approach, because it is not bound to any particular scientific discourse. Even better, the framework enables its users to combine scientific discourses regarding human decisions and behaviour on multiple scales and levels.The agents (actors and locations) in the framework are heterogeneous. This heterogeneity of agent behaviour is established by dividing the agents into categories. If an agent is a member of an agent category or combination of categories, it has access to a defined set of implementable actions. The actions are constructed out of potential option paths (POPs) and potential option nodes (PONs). The whole of POPs represent a theoretical construct of agent behaviour and decisions that the framework user wishes to explore. The POP defines a sequence of PONs. The PON is a transaction interface between an initialising agent and a recipient agent where they exchange material and immaterial capital.This paper explains the basic architecture of the MameLuke framework and shows its applicability with a model of a Philippine case study. This case study concerns the dynamics of migration and deforestation. It is part of a larger study on land use change in the San Mariano watershed area at the forest fringe of the Sierra Madre mountains in the Philippines. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]