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Accurately predicting carbon trading prices using deep learning models can help enterprises understand the operational mechanisms and regulations of the carbon market. This is crucial for expanding the industries covered by the carbon market and ensuring its stable and healthy development. To ensure the accuracy and reliability of the predictions in practical applications, it is important to evaluate the model's robustness. In this paper, we built models with different parameters to predict carbon trading prices, and proposed models with high accuracy and robustness. The accuracy of the models was assessed using traditional survey indicators. The robustness of the CNN-LSTM model was compared to that of the LSTM model using Z-scores. The CNN-LSTM model with the best prediction performance was compared to a single LSTM model, resulting in a 9% reduction in MSE and a 0.0133 shortening of the Z-score range. Furthermore, the CNN-LSTM model achieved a level of accuracy comparable to other popular models such as CEEMDAN, Boosting, and GRU. It also demonstrated a training speed improvement of at least 40% compared to the aforementioned methods. These results suggest that the CNN-LSTM enhances model resilience. Moreover, the practicality of using Z-score to evaluate model robustness is confirmed. • Deep learning by combined CNN-LSTM networks for carbon price forecasting. • Hyperparameter tuning of deep learning models for improving forecast accuracy. • CNN-LSTM models outperform single CNN models and single LSTM models. • Performance metric of deep learning for abrupt changes in carbon price variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the overall and time-varying efficiency of China's carbon market, which is crucial for carbon risk management and policymaking. Due to the severe illiquidity problems other pilots face, we first select Shenzhen, Guangdong, and Hubei pilots out of the eight carbon pilots for our study based on the statistical analysis. We then test the overall efficiency of the markets using the LM, CD, and Wild-Bootstrap variance ratio test. The sliding window method is combined with the above three variance ratio test methods to validate the time-varying efficiency. The results prove that the overall efficiency of the three carbon pilots has not yet reached a weak form. And we observe that the short-term efficiency is time-varying and may be weak-form. The study further found Hubei to be the most efficient carbon pilot, followed by Guangdong and Shenzhen. Finally, this paper conducts a qualitative analysis on the low efficiency from five aspects namely carbon trading rules, market liquidity, price volatility, trading volume, and types of trading products. Several conclusions and recommendations are proposed for policymakers and investors. • Sliding window method is combined with a series of variance ratio test methods. • The overall and time-varying efficiency of China's carbon market is tested. • China's carbon market has not reached weak-form efficiency. • Hubei is the most efficient carbon pilot. • Reasons for low efficiency are analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models and information and communication technology (ICT) can assist in the effective supervision of urban receiving water bodies and drainage systems. Single model-based decision tools, e.g., water quality models and the pollution source identification (PSI) method, have been widely reported in this field. However, a systematic pathway for environmental decision support system (EDSS) construction by integrating advanced single techniques has rarely been reported, impeding engineering applications. This paper presents an integrated supervision framework (UrbanWQEWIS) involving monitoring-early warning-source identification-emergency disposal to safeguard the urban water quality, where the data, model, equipment and knowledge are smoothly and logically linked. The generic architecture, all-in-one equipment and three key model components are introduced. A pilot EDSS is developed and deployed in the Maozhou River, China, with the assistance of environmental Internet of Things (IoT) technology. These key model components are successfully validated via in situ monitoring data and dye tracing experiments. In particular, fluorescence fingerprint-based qualitative PSI and Bayesian-based quantitative PSI methods are effectively coupled, which can largely reduce system costs and enhance flexibility. The presented supervision framework delivers a state-of-the-art management tool in the digital water era. The proposed technical pathway of EDSS development provides a valuable reference for other regions. [Display omitted] • An integrated supervision framework to safeguard the urban river water quality is constructed. • A pathway to link data, model, equipment and knowledge for EDSS development is proposed. • A "Monitoring-Early warning-Source identification-Emergency disposal" workflow is developed. • "Qualitative‒Quantitative"+ "Chemical–Numerical" methods are coupled to extend flexibility. • A pilot EDSS is established in the Maozhou River, Shenzhen, and validated via field tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasingly uncertain environmental conditions under global change, it is rather important for water security management to evaluate the flood risk, which is influenced by the compound effect of severe weather events and strong anthropogenic activities. In this paper, a risk assessment model in the framework of Bayesian network (BN) was proposed through incorporating with the Interpretative Structural Modeling method (ISM), which would produce an integrated ISM-BN model for reliable flood assessments. The ISM is employed to identify the relations among multiple risk factors, and then helps to configure the BN structure to conduct a risk inference. The established model was further demonstrated in Shenzhen city of China to perform an urban-level risk analysis of the flood disaster, and the Enhanced Water Index (EWI) was introduced to derive model parameters for training and verification. The obtained results of risk assessment lead to an accuracy of 76% with the Area Under ROC Curve (AUC) of 0.82, and spatial distribution of risk levels also showed a satisfactory performance. In addition, it was found that the maximum daily rainfall among ten risk factors play a key part in flood occurrence, while the elevation and storm frequency are also sensitive indicators for the study area. Besides, the spatial flood risk map generated under various design rainfall scenarios would contribute to identifying potential areas that are worth paying particular attention. Thus, the developed assessment model would be a useful tool for supporting flood risk governance to achieve reliable urban water security. • An integrated ISM-BN model for reliable flood assessments was proposed. • We performed an urban-level risk analysis of the flood disaster in Shenzhen. • The relations among multiple risk factors were effectively tackled. • The Enhanced Water Index (EWI) was introduced for characterizing flood risk. • The assessment results lead to an accuracy of 76% with AUC of 0.82. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]