1. Distributional versus singular approaches to probability and errors in probabilistic reasoning
- Author
-
Tim Reeves and Robert S. Lockhart
- Subjects
Developmental Neuroscience ,Frequentist inference ,Statistics ,Probabilistic logic ,Experimental and Cognitive Psychology ,Cognition ,Function (mathematics) ,Psychology ,Mathematical economics ,General Psychology ,Conjunction (grammar) - Abstract
Four experiments examined differences in probabilistic reasoning as a function of whether problems were presented in a frequentist or case-specific form. The experiments demonstrated that these different forms influence the likelihood of Ss committing the conjunction and disjunction fallacies. The authors contend that these 2 forms elicit different approaches to probability. Frequency problems, it is argued, elicit a distributional approach in which probabilities are equated with relative frequencies, whereas case-specific problems elicit a singular approach in which probabilities are equated with the propensities or causal forces operating in an individual case
- Published
- 1993
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