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The risk assessment study of Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat foods conducted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is an example of an extensive quantitative microbiological risk assessment that could be used by risk analysts and other scientists to obtain information and by managers and stakeholders to make decisions on food safety management. The present study was conducted to investigate how detailed sensitivity analysis can be used by assessors to extract more information on risk factors and how results can be communicated to managers and stakeholders in an understandable way. The extended sensitivity analysis revealed that the extremes at the right side of the dose distribution (at consumption, 9 to 11.5 log CFU per serving) were responsible for most of the cases of listeriosis simulated. For concentration at retail, values below the detection limit of 0.04 CFU/g and the often used limit for L. monocytogenes of 100 CFU/g (also at retail) were associated with a high number of annual cases of listeriosis (about 29 and 82%, respectively). This association can be explained by growth of L. monocytogenes at both average and extreme values of temperature and time, indicating that a wide distribution can lead to high risk levels. Another finding is the importance of the maximal population density (i.e., the maximum concentration of L. monocytogenes assumed at a certain temperature) for accurately estimating the risk of infection by opportunistic pathogens such as L. monocytogenes. According to the obtained results, mainly concentrations corresponding to the highest maximal population densities caused risk in the simulation. However, sensitivity analysis applied to the uncertainty parameters revealed that prevalence at retail was the most important source of uncertainty in the model.

Temperature abuse during commercial transport and retail sale of leafy greens negatively impacts both microbial safety and product quality. Consequently, the effect of fluctuating temperatures on Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes growth in commercially-bagged salad greens was assessed during transport, retail storage, and display. Over a 16-month period, a series of time-temperature profiles for bagged salads were obtained from five transportation routes covering four geographic regions (432 profiles), as well as during retail storage (4,867 profiles) and display (3,799 profiles). Five different time-temperature profiles collected during 2 to 3 days of transport, 1 and 3 days of retail storage, and 3 days of retail display were then duplicated in a programmable incubator to assess E. coli O157:H7 and L. monocytogenes growth in commercial bags of romaine lettuce mix. Microbial growth predictions using the Koseki-Isobe and McKellar-Delaquis models were validated by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE), bias, and the acceptable prediction zone between the laboratory growth data and model predictions. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to calculate the probability distribution of microbial growth from 8,122,127,472 scenarios during transport, cold room storage, and retail display. Using inoculated bags of retail salad, E. coli O157:H7 and L. monocytogenes populations increased a maximum of 3.1 and 3.0 log CFU/g at retail storage. Both models yielded acceptable RMSEs and biases within the acceptable prediction zone for E. coli O157:H7. Based on the simulation, both pathogens generally increased2 log CFU/g during transport, storage, and display. However, retail storage duration can significantly impact pathogen growth. This large-scale U.S. study-the first using commercial time/temperature profiles to assess the microbial risk of leafy greens-should be useful in filling some of the data gaps in current risk assessments for leafy greens.

A practical approach was used to achieve specified food safety objectives (FSOs) by incorporating risk assessment methodology. A series of cross-contamination scenarios at the retail level were evaluated in a spreadsheet and ranked according to their level of risk, and the degree to which they exceeded an FSO for Listeria monocytogenes (100 CFU/g) was determined. Percentiles and analyses of variance were used to identify which scenarios would be most likely not to achieve the FSO. It was also possible to incorporate into the model the effect of additional risk management interventions (e.g., hand washing method) by using "what if" scenarios analysis. The highest risk corresponded to the use of the same gloves to handle contaminated meat and then sliced ham compared with the safer method of using different gloves to handle each product. Nevertheless, in all scenarios bacterial concentrations could be higher than 10(8) CFU/g. A significant lack of knowledge regarding the transfer rates of L. monocytogenes was revealed, which provided the model with an important uncertainty component. The "what if" scenarios analysis based on the scenario representing handling food with bare hands followed by hand washing (scenario 2) revealed that the hand washing procedure had less impact than expected. This study illustrates the use of scenarios to model the most effective food processes and thus provide risk managers with appropriate information on which to base their decisions.