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The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

We show that a nighttime profile of OClO in the Arctic vortex during the winter of 2000 is overestimated, by nearly a factor of 2, using an isentropic trajectory model constrained by observed profiles of ClOx (ClO + 2 X ClOOCl) and BrO. Calculated abundances of nighttime OClO are shown to be sensitive to the abundance of BrOx (BrO + BrCl), details of the air parcel history during the most recent sunrise/sunset transitions, and the BrCl yield from the reaction BrO + ClO. Many uncertainties are considered, and the discrepancy between measured and modeled nighttime OClO appears to be robust. This discrepancy suggests that production of OClO occurs more slowly than implied by standard photochemistry. If the yield of BrCl from the reaction of BrO + ClO is increased from 7% (JPL 2002 value) to 11% (near the upper limit of the uncertainty), good agreement is found between measured and modeled nighttime OClO. This study highlights the importance of accurate knowledge of BrO + ClO reaction kinetics as well as air parcel trajectories for proper interpretation of nighttime OClO. These factors have a considerably smaller impact on the interpretation of OClO observations obtained during twilight (90(deg) <=SZA <= 92(deg)), when photolytic processes are still active.

We examine inorganic chlorine (Cly) partitioning in the summer lower stratosphere using in situ ER-2 aircraft observations made during the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) campaign. New steady state and numerical models estimate [ClONO2]/[HCl] using currently accepted photochemistry. These models are tightly constrained by observations with OH (parameterized as a function of solar zenith angle) substituting for modeled HO2 chemistry. We find that inorganic chlorine photochemistry alone overestimates observed [ClONO2]/[HCl] by approximately 55-60% at mid and high latitudes. On the basis of POLARIS studies of the inorganic chlorine budget, [ClO]/[ClONO2], and an intercomparison with balloon observations, the most direct explanation for the model-measurement discrepancy in Cly partitioning is an error in the reactions, rate constants, and measured species concentrations linking HCl and ClO (simulated [ClO]/[HCl] too high) in combination with a possible systematic error in the ER-2 ClONO2 measurement (too low). The high precision of our simulation (+/-15% 1-sigma for [ClONO2]/[HCl], which is compared with observations) increases confidence in the observations, photolysis calculations, and laboratory rate constants. These results, along with other findings, should lead to improvements in both the accuracy and precision of stratospheric photochemical models.

We use the first simultaneous in situ measurements of ClONO2, ClO, and HCl acquired using the NASA ER-2 aircraft during the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) mission to test whether these three compounds quantitatively account for total inorganic chlorine (Cly) in the lower stratosphere in 1997. We find (ClO + ClONO2 + HCl)/Cly = 0.92 +/- 0.10, where Cly is inferred from in situ measurements of organic chlorine source gases. These observations are consistent with our current understanding of the budget and partitioning of Cly in the lower stratosphere. We find no evidence in support of missing inorganic chlorine species that compose a significant fraction of Cly. We apply the analysis to earlier ER-2 observations dating from 1991 to investigate possible causes of previously observed discrepancies in the inorganic chlorine budget. Using space shuttle, satellite, balloon, and aircraft measurements in combination with ER-2 data, we find that the discrepancy is unlikely to have been caused by missing chlorine species or an error in the photolysis rate of chlorine nitrate. We also find that HCl/Cly is not significantly controlled by aerosol surface area density in the lower stratosphere.

The first in situ measurements of ClONO2 in the lower stratosphere, acquired using the NASA ER-2 aircraft during the Polar Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) mission, are combined with simultaneous measurements of ClO, NO2, temperature, pressure, and the calculated photolysis rate coefficient (J(sub ClONO2)) to examine the balance between production and loss of ClONO2. The observations demonstrate the ClONO2 photochemical steady state measurement, [ClONO2](sup PSS) = k[ClO][No2]/J(sub ClONO2), is in good agreement with the direct measurement, [ClONO2](sup MEAS). For the bulk of the data (80%), where T > 220 K and latitudes > 45 N, [ClONO2](sup PPS) = 1.15 +/- 0.36(1-sigma)[ClONO2](sup MEAS), while for T< 220 K and latitudes < 45 N, the result is somewhat less at 1.01 +/- 0.30. The cause of the temperature and/or latitude trend is unidentified. These results are independent of solar zenith angle and air density, thus there is no evidence in support of a pressure-dependent quantum yield for photodissociation of ClONO2 at wavelengths > 300 nm. These measurements confirm the mechanism by which active nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2) controls the abundance of active chlorine (Clx = ClO + Cl) in the stratosphere.

Volume mixing ratio profiles of HCl, HOCl, ClNO3, CH3Cl, CFC-12, and CFC-11, CCl4, HCFC-22, and CFC-113 were measured simultaneously from 9 to 38 km by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory MkIV Fourier Transform Infrared solar absorption spectrometer during two balloon flights from Fairbanks, Alaska (64.8 N), on May 8 and July 8, 1997. The altitude variation of total organic chlorine (CCl(sub y)), total inorganic chlorine (Cl(sub y)), and the nearly constant value (3.7 +/- 0.2 ppbv) of their sum (Cl(sub TOT)) demonstrates that the stratospheric chlorine species available to react with O3 are supplied by the decomposition of organic chlorinated compounds whose abundances are well quantified. Measured profiles of HCl and ClNO3 agree well with profiles found by photochemical model (differences < 10% for altitudes below 35 km) constrained by various other constituents measured by MkIV. The production of HCl by ClO + OH plays a relatively small role in the partitioning of HCl and ClNO3 for the sampled air masses. However, better agreement with the measured profiles of HCl and ClNO3 is obtained when this source of HCl is included in the model. Both the measured and calculated [ClNO3]/[HCl] ratios exhibit the expected near linear variation with [O3](sup 2)/[CH4] over a broad range of altitudes. MkIV measurements of HCl, ClNO3, and CCl(sub y) agree well with ER-2 in situ observations of these quantities for directly comparable air masses. These results demonstrate good understanding of the budget of stratospheric chlorine and that the partitioning of inorganic chlorine is accurately described by photochemical models that employ JPL97 reaction rates and production of HCl from ClO + OH for the environmental conditions encountered: relatively warm temperatures, long periods of solar illumination, and relatively low aerosol surface areas.

Observations inside the November 1994 Antarctic stratospheric vortex and inside the April 1993 remnant Arctic stratospheric vortex by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) Fourier transform spectrometer are reported. In both instances, elevated volume mixing ratios (VMRS) of carbon monoxide (CO) were measured. A peak Antarctic CO VMR of 60 ppbv (where 1 ppbv = 10(exp -9) per unit Volume) was measured at a potential temperature of 710 K (about 27 km), about 1 km below the altitude of a pocket of elevated NO(y) (total reactive nitrogen) at a deep minimum in N2O (<5 ppbv). The Arctic observations also show a region of elevated vortex CO with a peak VMR of 90 ppbv it 630-670 K (-25 km) but no corresponding enhancement in NO(sub y) perhaps because of stronger dynamical activity in the northern hemisphere polar winter and/or interannual variability in the production of mesospheric or lower thermospheric NO. By comparing vortex and extravortex observations of NO(y) obtained at the same N2O VMR, Arctic vortex denitrification of 5 +/- 2 ppbv at 470 K (at approximately 18 km) is inferred. We show that our conclusion of substantial Arctic winter 1992-1993 denitrification is robust by comparing our extravortex observations with previous polar measurements obtained over a wide range of winter conditions. Correlations of NO(y) with N2O measured at the same potential temperature by ATMOS in the Arctic vortex and at midlatitudes on board the ER-2 aircraft several weeks later lie along the same mixing line. The result demonstrates the consistency of the two data sets and confirms that the ER-2 sampled fragments of the denitrified Arctic vortex following its breakup. An analysis of the ATMOS Arctic measurements of total hydrogen shows no evidence for significant dehydration inside the vortex.

An accurate line-by-line model is used to evaluate effects of absorption in the Schumann-Runge bands of O2 on transmission of UV radiation. The model is used to evaluate rates of photolysis for N2O, CFCl3, and CF2Cl2, and to infer global loss rates and instantaneous lifetimes appropriate for 1980. A parameterized version of the line-by-line model enabling rapid evaluation of transmission in the Schumann-Runge region is described. Photochemical calculations employing the parameterization and constrained by data from the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy experiment are used to examine the budget of odd oxygen. Consistent with previous studies, it is shown that photochemical loss of odd oxygen exceeds production by photolysis of O2 for altitudes above 40 km. The imbalance between production and loss is shown to be consistent with a source of odd oxygen proportional to the product of the mixing ratio and photolysis rate of ozone, which suggests that processes involving vibrationally excited O2 may play an important role in production of odd oxygen.

The role of PSC particles in determining the distributions of HCl and chlorine radicals is studied. The thermodynamics of HCl in ice is discussed, showing that significant quantities of HCl may be dissolved in ice when PSCs form. It is argued that HCl and HNO3 will be removed from the gas phase early in the condensation process, when only small quantities of H2O have been condensed, reflecting the thermodynamic properties of the solid phases of HCl, HNO3, and H2O. Rapid heterogeneous chemical reactions then volatilize reactive chlorine gases and convert NO(x) to solid-phase nitrates, which can be removed by gravitational settling. Analysis of the suite of heterogeneous chemical processes in the polar stratosphere implies a threshold for HCl concentrations, above which chemical loss rates for ozone increase dramatically.