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In this paper, we examine differences in cloud adjustments (often called rapid adjustments) that occur as a direct result of abruptly increasing the solar constant by 4% or abruptly quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. In doing so, we devise a novel method for calculating the cloud adjustments for the abrupt solar forcing simulations that uses differences between coupled model simulations with abrupt solar and CO2 forcing, in combination with uncoupled, atmosphere‐only, abrupt CO2 forced experiments that have prescribed sea‐surface temperature. Our main findings are that (a) there are substantial differences in the responses of stratocumulus and cumulus clouds to solar and CO2 forcing, which follow the differences in the direct radiative effect that solar and CO2 forcing have at cloud top, and (b) there are differences in the adjustment of the average optical depth of high clouds to solar and CO2 forcing that we speculate are driven by the differences in the vertical profile of radiative heating and differences in the pattern of sea‐surface temperature change (for a fixed global mean temperature). These cloud adjustments contribute significantly to the total net cloud radiative effect, even after 150 years of simulation. Plain Language Summary: In climate change, clouds change due to a variety of mechanisms including surface temperature, dynamical circulations, and radiative forcing. In this paper, we examine the latter: how clouds respond to radiative forcing. We study this topic using climate model simulations where the brightness of the sun is abruptly increased by 4% and compare those with simulations where CO2 concentration is abruptly quadrupled. In doing so we find that, there are differences in the cloud response to changes in solar and CO2 forcing which include the occurrence of thick and thin high cloud, as well as the amount and height of low and mid‐level clouds. Key Points: Increasing CO2 causes a reduction and lowering of mid‐level and low‐level clouds which does not occur from solar forcingThere is large reduction in optically thin high clouds from solar forcing, especially as compared with CO2Even after 150 years adjustments make a significant contribution to the total net cloud radiative effect [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many uncertainties in future climate, including how the Earth may react to different types of radiative forcing, such as CO2, aerosols, and even geoengineered changes in the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth's surface. Here, we analyze model simulations where the climate system is subjected to an abrupt change of the solar constant by ±4%, and where the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly changed to quadruple and half its preindustrial value. Using these experiments, we examine how clouds respond to changes in solar forcing, compared to CO2, and feedback on global surface temperature. The total cloud response can be decomposed into those responses driven by changes in global surface temperature, called the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks, and responses driven directly by the forcing that are independent of the global surface temperature. In this paper, we study the temperature mediated cloud changes to answer two primary questions: (a) How do temperature mediated cloud feedbacks differ in response to abrupt changes in CO2 and solar forcing? And (b) Are there symmetrical (equal and opposite) temperature mediated cloud feedbacks during global warming and global cooling? We find that temperature mediated cloud feedbacks are similar in response to increasing solar and increasing CO2 forcing, and we provide a short review of recent literature regarding the physical mechanisms responsible for these feedbacks. We also find that cloud responses to warming and cooling are not symmetric, due largely to non‐linearity introduced by phase changes in mid‐to‐high latitude low clouds and sea ice loss/formation. Plain Language Summary: As the global mean temperature changes, there are changes in cloud amount, location, and thickness, which can all impact the radiative balance of the Earth. Cloud changes driven directly by global temperature change are called temperature mediated cloud feedbacks. In this paper, we study the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks that occur in model simulations where the amount of sunlight incident upon the Earth is increased or decreased abruptly, and then held constant for 150 years. We compare the cloud changes in these experiments with experiments where the CO2 concentration is similarly increased or decreased abruptly and held constant for 150 years. In doing so we find that the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks following abrupt changes in solar radiation are characteristically similar to those occurring following CO2 increase. There are however substantial differences in the temperature mediated cloud feedbacks that occur while the climate is warming versus cooling. Key Points: The temperature mediated cloud changes and feedbacks incurred by changes in solar and CO2 forcing are similarOptical depth changes at high latitudes produce substantial differences in cloud feedbacks in cooling and warming experimentsLikewise, tropical circulations respond differently in models to cooling and warming, with a stronger change in the Walker circulation in warming experiments [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the frequency of temperature extremes are often attributed to global warming. The recent availability of near‐surface temperature data records from reference networks, such as the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN), enables the quantification of measurement uncertainties. Within an activity of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the estimation of the measurement uncertainty has been provided for USCRN temperature data, using metadata made available by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In this paper, four climate extreme indices (Frost Days, Summer Days, Ice Days, Tropical Nights) and the related uncertainties are calculated for the period 2006–2020 from the USCRN data set and compared with traditional indices. Moreover, the asymmetric USCRN measurement uncertainties are propagated to estimate the uncertainties of climate indices. The comparison shows expanded uncertainties homogeneously distributed with the latitude and typically within 15 days per year for Frost Days and within 10 days for Ice Days, while smaller uncertainties are estimated for Summer Days and Tropical Nights, with values typically within six to seven days per year. Positive uncertainties are typically larger than negative ones for all the indices. The values of Frost and Ice Days with the related uncertainties for USCRN have also been compared with the corresponding values calculated from reanalyses data, showing differences typically within 60 days for median values, quite often smaller than USCRN and inconsistent within the related uncertainties, Overall, the results show that USCRN measurement uncertainties increase confidence in the estimation of climate extreme indices and decisions for adaptation. Plain Language Summary: The relationship between the intensity and frequency of extremes and climate change as well as their attribution to human activities is fundamental for improving the assessment of risk and the elaboration of adaptation strategies. Temperature extremes are often reported and estimated using observations or model data using indices, which are widely adopted in the research community and by decision‐makers. However, the number of temperature extremes is quantified assuming input observations as perfect, whereas these are always affected by uncertainties due to instrumental noise and systematic effects that cannot be always properly accounted for. This also implies that climate extreme indices may under or over‐represent the number of temperature extremes. The advent of reference measurement networks, as well as the overall increase in observational data quality due to recent technological improvements, allows us to quantify measurement uncertainties in detail. In this paper, temperature extremes over the US are estimated from near‐surface temperature measurements provided by the USCRN network in the period 2006–2020 with related uncertainties. The use of uncertainty illustrates the range of values that climate extreme indices may assume. Possible sources of uncertainties and comparisons with data from atmospheric reanalysis are also discussed. Key Points: An extensive assessment of uncertainties for four climate extreme indices is provided using reference near‐surface temperaturesEstimate uncertainties of climate indices for reanalysis validation and quantification of extremes by propagating measurement uncertaintiesUSCRN traceable measurements with quantified uncertainties increase confidence in estimating extreme indices and decisions for adaptation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long‐range transport and vertical distribution of aerosols are important factors for assessing the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. This paper reveals the vertical distribution and trends of aerosol optical properties in China using 15 years of Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) data. The Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian integrated trajectory model was used to analyze the transport and trends of aerosols in the layer with the highest occurrence frequencies of dust, polluted dust, polluted continental and elevated smoke aerosols. The results indicated that (a) there were significant regional and seasonal differences in the vertical distribution of aerosols. The aerosol optical depth (AOD) trend in a given region depends on the changes in the aerosol type with the highest frequency and the layer corresponding to the largest AOD in the vertical profile. The frequency of polluted dust aerosols was the highest in Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei (BTH) and Central China. The considerable decrease in the 0–2 km AOD led to a significant trend of the column AOD. (b) The changes of AOD and main aerosol types in a region are also affected by the changes of aerosol sources and long‐range transport pathways. In the BTH, dust aerosols originated from the Mongolian Plateau, accounting for 57.88% of the total trajectories. The Pearl River Delta was dominated by elevated smoke aerosols, with trajectories mainly originating from the Myanmar and Vietnam, accounting for 27.38% and 29.59%, respectively. The trend of 15‐year backward trajectories of dust aerosols on the Tibetan Plateau indicated that the trajectory from India is increasing. Plain Language Summary: Aerosols are one of the main factors affecting global climate change, influencing global radiation through direct and indirect effects. Long‐range transport aerosols and their vertical distribution are important factors for assessing the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing. At present, there is limited research on the vertical distribution and transport pathways of different types of aerosols in multiple regions over China. Considering that aerosols in different regions of China exhibit large vertical distribution and transport differences, we revealed the vertical distribution and trends of aerosol optical properties in China using 15 years of Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization data. The Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model was used to analyze the transport and trends of different aerosols. We found significant regional and seasonal differences in the vertical distributions of aerosols. The changes in the aerosol optical depth and main aerosol types in a given region were also significantly affected by the changes in aerosol transport sources and transport pathways. This study provides comprehensive insight into the vertical distribution and transport characteristics of different types of atmospheric aerosols in the Chinese region over the last 15 years, which is very important to further evaluation of the impact of different aerosol types on the radiative effects and the environment. Key Points: The vertical distribution of aerosol optical properties exhibits notable seasonal and regional differences using 15 years of Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) dataThe trend of total aerosol optical depth (AOD) mainly depends on the joint changes of the highest frequency aerosol and the maximum AOD layer in a vertical profileThe changes of AOD and main aerosol types in a region are also affected by the changes of aerosol transport sources and transport pathways [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An analysis is presented of the precipitation bias and change signal in an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) (RegCM4) projections driven by multiple general circulation models (GCMs) over China. RegCM4 is driven by five different GCMs for the 120‐year period 1979–2099 at 25 km grid spacing, under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. We find that the GCMs and RegCM4 reproduce the general spatial pattern of precipitation over China in all four seasons, with RegCM4 providing greater spatial detail, especially over areas with complex terrain. The spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by an underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in northern China, most pronounced in the Northwest basins, by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when more mixed results are found. In addition, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found in summer between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role played by the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing. Plain Language Summary: China is a vulnerable country to climate change due to its dense population, unbalanced social and economic development, shortage of water resources, and fragile ecosystems. How future precipitation will change over the region is of great concern for the general public and decision makers. This paper presents a first analysis of precipitation simulations from a set of five RCM (RegCM4) 21st century climate change projections, driven by coarse resolution general circulation models (GCMs) over China. We find that the spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by a precipitation underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in north China by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role of the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing. Key Points: The spatial patterns of bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4RegCM4 provides greater spatial detail of present day precipitation simulation compared to the GCMs and finer structures of future changesThe change patterns across the RegCM4 projections show a high correlation, but not always between each pair of driving GCM and RegCM4 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrometeorological droughts are complex hazards expressed through the relative deviation in water availability relative to long‐term average conditions. The development and propagation of drought is governed by hydrological processes at different spatial scales including precipitation, evapotranspiration, overland flow, soil moisture, groundwater storage and discharge. Detailed investigation is thus required to evaluate associated linkages among various types of hydrometeorological drought to understand the likely impacts of climate change on drought characteristics (magnitude, frequency, duration and propagation). This study explores the impact of climate change on hydrometeorological drought for 10 Irish catchments, using standardized drought indices representing different components of the hydrological system. We employ 12 Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), forced with SSP370 and bias corrected to catchment conditions to force a conceptual hydrological model to generate hydrological projections for each catchment. The results indicate substantial drying during summer with associated increases in summer drought magnitude and frequency. However, simulations show a wide range of change, especially for hydrological drought (discharge and baseflow). Only modest changes in the magnitude and frequency of hydrological drought events were found, with increases in winter and spring precipitation offsetting summer dryness. Similarly, the probability of meteorological drought propagating to hydrological events (Standardized Streamflow Index/Standardized Baseflow Index), shows modest increases under the climate change projections considered. Findings highlight that drought, especially during summer are a critical climate change risk for adaptation. Plain Language Summary: Climate change aggravates the impact of hydrometeorological droughts on water availability and distribution in Ireland. Rainfall, evaporation, overland flow, soil moisture, groundwater storage, and the size and strength of discharges are the main factors that cause drought extent and duration. Therefore, for the sustainable development of ecosystems and water resources in a country, it is a requirement to evaluate associated linkages among various types of hydrometeorological drought to understand the likely impacts of climate change on drought characteristics (magnitude) and propagation. This paper explores the impact of climate change on hydrometeorological drought for 10 Irish catchments. The findings indicate significant summer drying, as well as increases in the magnitude and frequency of summer droughts. The probability of meteorological drought propagating to hydrological events, shows modest increases under the climate change projections considered. Drought, particularly during the summer, is a critical climate change risk for adaptation, according to the findings. Key Points: Changes in hydrometeorological drought characteristics under changing climate conditions were estimated; and the results indicate substantial drying during summer with associated increases in summer drought magnitude and frequencyIncreases in winter and spring precipitation result in a decrease in the frequency and magnitude of drought events outside summer and are critical for maintaining baseflow during summer. This also raises the risk of extreme droughts for a dry winter/springThe probability of drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological events increases for the 2050s but decreases for the end of century, highlighting the importance of increases in winter and spring precipitation to drought risk [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming causes permafrost degradation that not only leads to the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, but also to soil moisture increases due to ground ice melt. These processes are particularly prevalent in peat‐rich and ice‐rich permafrost regions. Peat is important because of its high organic matter content and soil moisture. Although previous work has focused on the importance of two factors, their precise quantitative impact on permafrost is still not clear. Here we apply the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model and sensitivity experiments to quantify the role of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost, with a case study focused on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We verify that organic matter and soil moisture has a cooling effect in the warm season and an insulating effect in the cold season. The average thawing onset was delayed 10 days at 0.05–1.4 m depths, when organic matter content increases from 0% to 90%. Freezing onset occurs slightly earlier. Furthermore, active layer thickness (ALT) decreased by 0.40 m. Soil moisture has similar effect on permafrost as organic matter, but ALT changes have a higher magnitude, decreasing by 0.46 m. The results show that both organic matter and soil moisture have an insulating effect on permafrost. Further, the magnitude of impact is larger as organic matter or soil moisture increase. These results can be helpful in assessing permafrost carbon mitigation with climate change. Plain Language Summary: Permafrost can contain high amounts of organic matter and ground ice, and peat plays an important role in permafrost degradation. Permafrost degrades due to climate warming, which can lead to the release of carbon in the form of greenhouse gases, exacerbating the degradation of permafrost. Additionally, soil moisture also significantly impacts permafrost degradation. However, few studies have estimated the effects of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost degradation. This paper therefore explores the quantitative effect of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost through a series of model sensitivity experiments. We find that organic matter and soil moisture both insulate permafrost, cooling it in summer and warming it in winter. These results are important for mitigating the effects of climate change on permafrost and carbon feedbacks. Key Points: The insulating effect of organic matter and soil moisture on permafrost is quantified using model sensitivity experimentsIncreasing organic matter and soil moisture both cool permafrost in summer and warm it in winterThese organic matter and soil moisture feedbacks refine our understanding of permafrost dynamics under climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Grid‐point Atmospheric Model of the IAP LASG version 3 (GAMIL3) has been developed by upgrading the horizontal resolution, methods of parallel computation, boundary layer scheme, aerosol parameterization, convective parameterization, stratocumulus cloud fraction scheme, land component, and coupler, as well as tuning some moist physical parameters with large uncertainties. Its performance is evaluated, and the results show significant improvements compared with the previous version, GAMIL2. The simulated performance of mean states is notably enhanced, including the energy budget terms at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface, shortwave/longwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF/LWCF), precipitation, zonal wind, low‐level temperature, 500‐hPa geopotential height, and snow cover fraction in the Northern Hemisphere. The characteristics of internal variability are captured well, such as the frequency band and active areas of quasi‐biweekly (QBW) oscillation, spectral power of convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs), Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) eastward propagation, and heat flux response to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and these variabilities are generally strengthened in GAMIL3. In addition, the anthropogenic aerosol climate effects are weakened when using the forcings recommended by CMIP6. Plain Language Summary: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) provides a multimodel platform for research in climate change originating from unforced variability or in response to changes in anthropogenic forcings. The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment, which is part of the sixth phase of CMIP (CMIP6), is designed to evaluate the atmospheric component in the climate system. The GAMIL3 is the atmospheric component of Flexible Global‐Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Land System Model Grid‐point version 3 (FGOALS‐g3), one of the CMIP6 models, and it has been developed from GAMIL2. This paper presents a description of the GAMIL3 model and its upgrades, the performance of the simulated mean state and internal variability, and the anthropogenic aerosol climate effects. This description is useful for understanding climate variability and change. Key Points: This paper presents GAMIL3 and the results of its AMIP simulationsOverall performance is improved, and climate variabilities are strengthenedAnthropogenic aerosol effects using the CMIP6 protocol are weaker than those from the model's default approach [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The retrieval of the asymmetry parameter from nephelometer measurements can be challenging due to the inability to detect the whole angular range. Here, we present a new method for retrieving the asymmetry parameter of ice crystals with relatively large size parameters (>50) from polar nephelometer measurements. We propose to fit the angular scattering measurement with a series of Legendre polynomials and the best fitted coefficients give the asymmetry parameter. The accuracy of the retrieval is analyzed by accessing the smoothness of the phase function, which is closely linked to the complexity of ice particle. It is found that the uncertainty of retrieval could be smaller than 0.01, provided the measured intensity profile is smooth enough. As an application, we report an case study on Arctic cirrus, which shows a mean value for the asymmetry parameter of 0.72. Plain Language Summary: The asymmetry parameter of ice crystals is a parameter that can largely determine cirrus cloud's interaction with solar radiation energy, and therefore its magnitude is important for climate and weather prediction models. In‐situ measurements using nephelometers is a direct way to measure partial angular scattering functions, and the accuracy of these measurements is of upmost importance. In this paper, we report a novel method for retrieving the asymmetry parameter from polar nephelometer measurements. Depending on the smoothness of the measured angular scattering function, the accuracy of the retrieval could be very high. We report a case study over the Arctic region, showing a low asymmetry parameter around 0.72. Key Points: A new algorithm is developed for retrieving the asymmetry parameter of large and complex ice crystals from polar nephelometer measurementsAccuracy of retrieval could be better than 0.01, provided sufficient smoothness of the phase functionA case study of Arctic cirrus measurement during the CIRRUS‐HL campaign is reported [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, three parameterization schemes, one considering gravel influence (test1), one considering organic carbon influence (test2), and one comprehensively considering gravel and organic carbon influence (test3), were set up to modify different typical underlying surfaces of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In addition, their soil thermal properties and hydraulic property variations were discussed. Additionally, discussing the key thermal and hydraulic parameters affected the performance of different schemes from the perspective of observation data in the TP to improve the simulation ability of soil temperature and soil moisture in the plateau areas. Compared the original Community Land Model (CLM) scheme, test1 resulted in higher soil temperature and lower soil moisture, while test2 had lower soil temperature and higher soil moisture. The key thermal and hydraulic parameters are the changes in the saturated thermal conductivity and the thermal conductivity of dry soil and the variations of the porosity and exponent B, respectively. The test3 scheme was the same as test2 for the modified changes of thermal properties, except that the proportion of change was slightly different. In terms of soil thermal properties, test2 and test3 were better at 0–20 cm depth, while test1 and test3 were better for the deeper (40 cm) simulation. Regarding hydraulic properties, the test1 and test3 schemes performed better on the Gobi and alpine meadows at 20–40 cm depth, while the original CLM scheme and test2 performed better on the underlying grassland surface. Test3 was better at balancing the relationship between the thermal and hydraulic parameters and could be used for the further research on the entire plateau area. Key Points: According to the observation data, the CLM5.0 thermal and hydrological parameterization schemes are modified in this paperThe new scheme is better at balancing the relationship between the thermal and hydraulic parametersThe modified CLM5.0 improves the ability to simulate soil temperature and moisture on the plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low‐level mixed‐phase clouds are important for Earth's climate but are poorly represented in climate models. A one‐moment microphysics scheme from Seiki and Roh (2020, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0266.1) improves the representation of supercooled water and verifies it with a single‐column model. We evaluate the performance of this scheme using a global cloud‐system‐resolving simulation. We show that the scheme has several major improvements over the original scheme on which it is based, which underestimated the generation of supercooled droplets. The new scheme suppresses the original scheme's tendency to overestimate the conversion of cloud water to rain, vapor to cloud ice, and cloud water to cloud ice. It greatly improves the previously underestimated production of low‐level mixed‐phase clouds at middle‐to‐high latitudes, particularly over the ocean at the middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. It also increases the lifetime of liquid clouds, thus improving the simulation of low‐level liquid clouds in western coastal regions of the tropics. The temperature dependency of the ratio of mass fraction of liquid cloud to the sum of ice and liquid clouds, F, reveals that mixed‐phase clouds statistically develop in a much wider range of temperature (−30°C ∼ 0°C), which supports the development of more mixed‐phase clouds in our simulation. The change to a wider range of F at given temperature is expected to be important, because it allows more complex feedback processes to arise from different cloud phase regimes. An improved simulation in seasonal variation of shortwave radiation and its cloud radiative effect are also identified. Plain Language Summary: Low‐level mixed‐phase clouds are important for the Earth's radiation budget because they persistently develop especially over the Southern Ocean, and reflect sunlight back to space. However, most climate models have suffered from simulating those mixed‐phase clouds, which has been a major source of uncertainty to project a future climate change. This paper reveals that an improved modeling of mixed‐phase clouds leads to better representation of the global distribution and seasonal change of mixed‐phase clouds considerably, which also results in an improved simulation of the Earth's radiation budget. The present result is capable of contributing to improve not only our climate model, but current climate models worldwide. Key Points: We use a global cloud‐system‐resolving simulation to analyze a one‐moment microphysics scheme for representing mixed‐phase low‐level cloudsWe show that the new scheme improves the representation of supercooled water and increases the lifetime of liquid cloudsThe new scheme also better represents seasonal changes in reflection of solar radiation, compared with the previous schemes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) dynamics over glaciers mediate the response of glacier mass balance to large‐scale climate forcing. Despite this, very few ABL observations are available over mountain glaciers in complex terrain. An intensive field campaign was conducted in June 2015 at the Athabasca Glacier outlet of Columbia Icefield in the Canadian Rockies. Observations of wind and temperature profiles with novel kite and radio‐acoustic sounding systems showed a well‐defined mesoscale circulation developed between the glacier and snow‐free valley in fair weather. The typical vertical ABL structure above the glacier differed from that expected for "glacier winds"; strong daytime down‐glacier winds extended through the lowest 200 m with no up‐valley return flow aloft. This structure suggests external forcing at mesoscale scales or greater and is provisionally termed an "icefield breeze." A wind speed maximum near the surface, characteristic of a "glacier wind," was only observed during night‐time and one afternoon. Lapse rates of air temperature down the glacier centerline show the interaction of down‐glacier cooling driven by sensible heat loss into the ice, entrainment and periodic disruption and warming. Down‐glacier cooling was weaker in "icefield breeze" conditions, while in "glacier wind" conditions, stronger down‐glacier cooling enabled large increases in near‐surface temperature on the lower glacier during periods of surface boundary layer (SBL) disruption. These results raise several questions, including the impact of Columbia Icefield on the ABL and melt of Athabasca Glacier. Future work should use these observations as a testbed for modeling spatio‐temporal variations in the ABL and SBL within complex glaciated terrain. Plain Language Summary: Mountain glaciers are experiencing rapid change in response to climate change. But to confidently attribute past change and predict future change, our mathematical models need to account for how glaciers modify the climate they experience. New measurements of wind and temperature have been made over an outlet glacier of the Columbia Icefield, Canadian Rockies using a novel kite‐based measurement system along with an extensive set of meteorological measurements on the glacier surface and in the valley below the glacier. They show that the persistent down‐glacier winds observed at the glacier surface have a different vertical structure than expected from previous observations and theory. Down‐glacier winds typically cool the air next to the surface as it travels down‐glacier. Here it is shown that this cooling process is more limited when the wind is strong throughout the lower valley over the glacier, compared with times when wind speed is strongest next to the glacier and weaker above. The data set presented in this paper provides an opportunity to test the models used to link glaciers and climate. Key Points: A well‐developed mesoscale wind develops over a Columbia Icefield outlet glacier but differs from previously documented "glacier winds"Novel kite and radio‐acoustic observations indicate strong down‐glacier winds typically extend through the lowest 200 m of above‐glacier ABLKatabatic cooling in the glacier surface boundary layer is reduced during periods with "icefield breezes" compared to periods with typical "glacier winds" [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Creating synthetic ice cloud profiles that are distributed according to realistic probability density functions is fundamentally essential for submillimeter wave radiometer studies. In this paper, we develop an algorithm to create synthetic ice cloud profiles by combing in situ microphysics measurements and spaceborne radar reflectivity observations using Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration (MCI). We first conduct comprehensive studies of the in situ data from the Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling (TC4) experiment based on a bimodal particle size distribution (PSD) scheme and the realistic particle scattering properties for different crystal habits. Ice water content and radar reflectivity simulations from the in situ PSD are compared with the in situ measurements qualitatively and quantitatively. We then evaluate the Bayesian MCI by applying the algorithm to the Cloud Radar System (CRS) during the TC4 campaign and compare the brightness temperature simulations for the retrievals with the Compact Scanning Submillimeter Imaging Radiometer (CoSSIR) measurements. Finally, we apply the Bayesian MCI to the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) measurements on CloudSat, and we use the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) to preserve the one‐point statistics and the two‐point statistics that allow for the creation of any number of synthetic ice cloud profiles that are statistically consistent with the Bayesian retrieval results. The synthesized profiles are a useful characterization of the ice cloud vertical structure that combines two disparate data sources, and the synthesis algorithm constitutes an essential initial step for producing critical information in submillimeter radiometry studies. Key Points: We propose an algorithm to synthesize ice cloud profiles that are distributed according to realistic probability density functionsThe algorithm combines the in situ microphysics with the radar measurements using Bayesian Monte Carlo IntegrationWe evaluate the synthesis algorithm with the data from the TC4 campaign and the CloudSat radar observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbursts are meteorological phenomena in the lower troposphere which can produce damaging surface winds and pose a severe risk to aircraft flying close to the ground. As these events usually span less than 4 km and 15 min, the spatiotemporal resolution is a challenge for numerical simulations. Although research of microburst using operative mesoscale models is scarce, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used in the diagnosis of this phenomenon. In this paper, such model is used to simulate several microburst conducive days using two different boundary conditions. The energy spectra of the simulations are computed to evaluate the effective resolution of the model. The results are in line with previous studies and produce no notable differences among the boundary conditions. Nonetheless, the energy spectra show an overenergetic troposphere at microscale resolutions, rendering the effective resolution inadequate for microburst forecasting using the simulated physics variables. Thus, mesoscale indices are analyzed as a prognostic tool. The wind index, the wet microburst severity index and the microburst windspeed potential index do not show high forecasting performances, even though improving the results of climatology. Also, notable differences among the boundary conditions can be seen. The most consistent results are achieved by the wet microburst severity index. Key Points: The WRF model shows an unrealistic energy spectrum when microscale spatial resolutions are usedThe effective resolution of the simulations casts doubts over the ability to forecast microburstsWINDEX, WMSI, and MWPI microburst indices show better forecasting performance than climatology, despite being suboptimal in general terms [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work is the first of a two‐part study that aims to develop a computationally efficient bias correction framework to improve surface PM2.5 forecasts in the United States. Here, an ensemble‐based Kalman filter (KF) technique is developed primarily for nonrural areas with approximately 500 surface observation sites for PM2.5 and applied to three (GEOS‐Chem, WRF‐Chem, and WRF‐CMAQ) chemical transport model (CTM) hindcast outputs for June 2012. While all CTMs underestimate daily surface PM2.5 mass concentration by 20–50%, KF correction is effective for improving each CTM forecast. Subsequently, two ensemble methods are formulated: (1) the arithmetic mean ensemble (AME) that equally weights each model and (2) the optimized ensemble (OPE) that calculates the individual model weights by minimizing the least‐square errors. While the OPE shows superior performance than the AME, the combination of either the AME or the OPE with a KF performs better than the OPE alone, indicating the effectiveness of the KF technique. Overall, the combination of a KF with the OPE shows the best results. Lastly, the Successive Correction Method (SCM) was applied to spread the bias correction from model grids with surface PM2.5 observations to the grids lacking ground observations by using a radius of influence of 125 km derived from surface observations, which further improves the forecast of surface PM2.5 at the national scale. Our findings provide the foundation for the second part of this study that uses satellite‐based aerosol optical depth (AOD) products to further improve the forecast of surface PM2.5 in rural areas by performing statistical analysis of model output. Plain Language Summary: Air quality forecasting plays an important role in informing the general public and decision‐makers on reducing exposure to air pollution. Air quality models simulating atmospheric constituents such as particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) are often used to provide daily forecasts. However, these models are subject to large error and uncertainty as a result of the incomplete representation of the real atmosphere. Here, we develop a computationally efficient framework to improve model forecasts by performing bias correction on model outputs. We focus on nonrural areas in the continental United States and show that our technique improves model forecasts of surface PM2.5. In a companion paper, we focus on the application of satellite data to improve PM2.5 forecasting in rural areas. Key Points: The chemical transport models (GEOS‐Chem, WRF‐Chem, and WRF‐CMAQ) show systematically low bias of PM2.5Model output postprocessing with surface data and the ensemble Kalman filter technique improves the PM2.5 forecast at both local and urban scaleThe Successive Correction Method extends the PM2.5 forecast improvement from the local to regional scale [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) acts as a key source of multidecadal variability and plays an important role in climate change in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in great social and economic impacts. This paper shows that, since the late 19th century, the AMV has experienced a significant increasing trend. The AMV intensified at a rate of 0.0040°C per decade from 1870 to 2014, which is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The AMV teleconnects the amplified signal from the North Atlantic across the Eurasian continent to North America through a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, which further intensifies the regional climate variability and climate extremes in North Africa, Europe, East Asia, and North America. Results from the single‐forcing and all‐but‐one‐forcing experiments of the Community Earth System Model, version 1, indicate that anthropogenic aerosol emissions have played a more important role in the AMV intensification compared to other external forcings, especially during the period from the 1900s to 1990s. Key Points: The AMV has experienced a significant increasing trendThe intensified AMV has amplified the regional climate variability and climate extremes in the Northern HemisphereAnthropogenic aerosol emissions have played an important role in the AMV intensification [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical Asian regions are particularly prone to catastrophic droughts due to high temperature and evaporation and their sensitivity to variable oceanic‐atmospheric circulation. The extent to which future global warming may intensify droughts in this populous region is a matter of utmost concern. Palaeoclimatic data can help inform scientists learn more about the temporal patterns and drivers of monsoon change over geological timescales. In this paper, we present a new 8,200 year biomarker record preserved in the annually laminated sediments of Maar Lake Twintaung, Myanmar. The δ13C27‐35 sedimentary record is mainly derived from leaf wax lipids in the lake catchment, which is presently dominated by C3 vegetation in the modern lake catchment. The δ13C27‐35 is mainly regulated by plant physiological and biochemical responses to drought stress and, as such, can be used as a proxy of past changes in moisture. The δ13C27–35 record reveals distinct decadal‐to‐centennial‐scale droughts superimposed on a trend of gradually decreasing summer monsoon intensity from the mid‐Holocene to late Holocene. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, these decadal‐to‐centennial‐scale droughts are found to be well correlated with the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It highlights thepimportance of the Intertropical Convergence Zone shift (tropical monsoon trough) in regulating monsoon rainfall in the region. In addition, most of the droughts are likely to be linked with active volcanism and solar minima and suggest a coupled process between external drivers and internal climate dynamics. Key Points: Leaf wax n‐alkanes record in varved sediment of Maar lake Twintaung, MyanmarThe result indicates distinct decadal‐to‐centennial‐scale droughts over the past 8.2 kaThe drought cycles link with the ITCZ shift, solar and volcanic eruption [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between daily weather forecasts and seasonal climate outlooks. Recent scientific advances have identified sources of predictability on this time range, and modeling advances are leading to better forecasts. However, much remains to be done to further improve their skill and to develop new climate service forecast products to help countries and sectorial decision makers better manage weather risks and extremes and to adapt to climate change. This paper reviews the history and describes the main challenges and opportunities for the modeling and forecast‐applications communities to improve subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts and products, along with current developments catalyzed by the World Weather Research Programme and World Climate Research Programme's joint Sub‐Seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project. The case of tropical cyclones is highlighted as an illustrative example of the points discussed. Plain Language Summary: The forecast range between weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks was long thought to be a "predictability desert" with little forecast skill. However, many management decisions in agriculture and food security, water, disaster risk reduction, and health fall into this gap in prediction capabilities, so that developing forecast capabilities for this time range would be of considerable societal value. New research and better models have begun to close this gap through increased international collaboration between weather and climate forecasting centers, national research programs, and the academic and user communities. Better understanding of the coupled ocean‐atmosphere‐land‐cryosphere system has identified multiple sources of S2S predictability that are starting to be exploited to fill the prediction gap spurred by creation of new forecast databases. Key Points: Subseasonal to seasonal prediction is a new and rapidly developing area of forecasting capabilitiesCollaborative research on interactions between weather and climate has been accelerated by new multimodel databases of forecastsSubseasonal tropical cyclone forecasts have improved substantially with good prospects for developing useful early warning systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between long‐term trends (1980–2017) in intensity and wind evolution for tropical cyclones (TCs) within the western tropical Atlantic (WTA) and central/eastern tropical Atlantic (CETA) subbasins. Long‐term TC trends in intensity, intensification time, and wind variability for the CETA were generally more significant than, and in some cases opposite to, those for the WTA. Both the TC intensity levels, as measured by the power dissipation index normalized by storm hours and proportion of rapid intensification intervals (defined as a 12‐hr wind speed increase of 20 kt or more), exhibit no long‐term trends in either subbasin. A TC wind variability index (WVI) calculated over 72‐hr intervals of the TC lifecycle decreases for the WTA over the decades, while the CETA has the 72‐hr intervals with the greatest wind speed fluctuations. The average period of intensification before the peak in TC intensity increases ~0.97 hr/year for the CETA. TC maximum intensity exhibits no trend, suggesting that TCs in the tropical North Atlantic have a trend favoring a longer intensification period to reach their lifetime maximum intensity. A correlation analysis suggests that warmer sea surface temperatures and greater moisture favor longer intensification and greater WVI. In contrast, greater 850‐ to 200‐hPa vertical wind shear is associated with shorter intensification periods and less WVI. Plain Language Summary: Wind speed data from tropical cyclones and hurricanes over the past four decades were used to quantify various cyclone characteristics, such as intensity, intensification, and wind speed fluctuations. Observed trends over time were then compared to environmental conditions that may be driving the changes, such as heat, moisture, and wind composition of the surrounding environment during cyclone genesis. This two‐prong approach not only reveals the manifest ways in which tropical cyclone evolution has changed over time but also points to the long‐term environmental changes that are associated with these trends and how they may be related to climate change. The analyses were conducted by dividing the tropical North Atlantic Ocean into a western and central/eastern portion and evaluating them separately. While the western tropical Atlantic demonstrated little to no long‐term trends, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic exhibited significant increases in cyclone buildup time and short‐term wind speed fluctuations. When compared to the surrounding environmental factors, the intensification time was found to decrease with conditions that favored cyclone formation, while the wind speed variability increased. Key Points: Tropical cyclone (TC) wind variability decreases in the western tropical North Atlantic and is greatest in the central eastern AtlanticThe average period of intensification before peaks in TC intensity increases ~0.33 hr/year for both North Atlantic subbasins combinedHigher sea surface temperature and moisture and lower vertical wind shear are associated with longer intensification and wind variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year 2019 marks the thirtieth anniversary of the development of the first regional climate model (RCM), and here an overview is provided of the progress in regional modeling research and of the main challenges lying ahead. RCMs were primarily developed to provide fine‐scale climate information for impact studies, but they have evolved into general and multipurpose modeling tools. Among the main achievements in RCM research the focus is on: the development of community RCMs applicable to a wide variety of studies and regional contexts; the increase of model simulation length up to centennial scales and spatial resolutions up to convection‐permitting scales (few kilometers), leading to a better understanding of regional to local climate change signals; the development of fully coupled Regional Earth System Models; the inception of intercomparison projects culminating in the international Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment; the extensive use of RCM simulations for impact assessments; and the involvement of the scientific community from developing countries in climate modeling research. Among the outstanding issues in need of more attention are the Added Value of using this downscaling technique; various technical aspects concerning RCM simulations; and uncertainties in RCM‐based climate projections. Future directions in RCM research are discussed, with highlight on: transition to convection‐permitting modeling systems; further development of Regional Earth System Models including the human component; next phase of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project; and use of RCMs in the distillation of actionable information for contribution to climate service activities. A brief historical overview of regional climate modeling is also presented. Key Point: The paper reviews accomplishments, outstanding issues, and future research directions in regional climate modeling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic has experienced step changes in climate conditions, which are still not fully understood. Particularly intriguing was the Early Twentieth‐Century Arctic Warming (ETCAW), which occurred prior to anthropogenic interference in the environment. This paper quantitatively assesses the differences in atmospheric circulation patterns during periods of warming and cooling on Spitsbergen with a particular focus on ETCAW. The patterns of atmospheric circulation were taken from the catalog of day‐by‐day circulation types created for Svalbard. The catalog includes 21 circulation types, assigned to every day between 1920 and 2017. The research focused on winter and autumn, the seasons exhibiting pronounced ETCAW on Spitsbergen. The long‐term variability in autumn and winter air temperatures on Spitsbergen significantly depends on the frequency of air advection from clearly defined directions and reveals some seasonal differentiation. Warming was related in autumn to southern and south‐eastern advection, in winter to southern advection, and in both cyclonic and anticyclonic conditions. These "warm" types explained up to 21% (September–November) or 25% (December–February) of the variability in air temperature. In winter, cooling was significantly related to anticyclonic type with air advection from the northeast (NEa: 24% of variability): in autumn to cyclonic northern (Nc) and northeastern (NEc) types. During ETCAW, the frequency of warm circulation types was significantly higher, and that of "cold" circulation types significantly lower. No relevant differences in patterns were found between ETCAW and Recent Arctic Warming; however, the frequency of warm and cold types was higher and lower, respectively, during ETCAW. Key Points: A 10% change in the circulation types frequency can raise DJF air temperature by 2.5 °C (S types) or reduce them by 2.1 °C (N types)Southern CTs explain up to 46%, and northern up to 41% of variability in DJF air temperaturesETCAW was marked by a significantly higher frequency of warm southern CTs and a lower frequency of cold northern CTs, both by >20% [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vb cyclones typically emerge in the Western Mediterranean and propagate to the Northeast into Central Europe. This paper explores the temporal characteristics of Vb cyclone occurrence based on cyclone tracks identified at the atmospheric levels of Z700 and sea level pressure, using JRA‐55 reanalysis data for the period 1959–2015. The risk of Vb occurrence was significantly high in the 1960s and has remained at a lower level since then. Vb cyclones do not occur fully randomly according to a Poisson point process. Eleven well‐separated and distinct clusters as well as 11 hiatus periods are identified, with average occurrence rates of 21.5 and 5.2 yrea−1, respectively. During the event of Vb, the large‐scale atmospheric circulation is changed into a state favoring the development of successive Vb cyclones. Clustering is very prominent in the case of Genoan Vb cyclones in summer as well as those Vb cyclones developing over the Iberian Peninsula or the North African Coast in winter. Superposition of the polar and the subtropical jet stream over the Western Mediterranean is identified as a main feature at the onset of Vb cyclones. Vb cyclone occurrence appears to be synchronized with the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; at Z500) and Arctic Oscillation (AO; at Z1000). Clusters have occurred when both NAO and AO were negative. This relation applies to Western Mediterranean cyclones not following a Vb track as well, however to a much weaker extent. In contrast, Vb cyclone frequency was particularly low from 1988 to 1997 during a sustained positive phase of both NAO and AO. Key Points: In the past 50 years, the frequency of Vb cyclones was high in the 1960s and lower since thenVb cyclones were strongly synchronized with NAO and AO; high frequency clusters occurred when NAO and AO were negativeThe coupling of the polar and the subtropical jet stream over the Western Mediterranean is a driving mechanism of the onset of Vb cyclones [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inaccurate mixed‐phase cloud parameterizations over the Southern Ocean remain one of the largest sources of disagreement among global models in determining shortwave cloud radiative feedbacks. Suitable global observations supporting model improvements are currently unavailable. The conventional satellite cloud phase retrieval from passive radiometers is strongly biased toward cloud top without further information on the subcloud phase. Mixed‐phase clouds with the liquid‐top mixed‐phase (LTMP) structures are often classified simply as supercooled liquid. This paper presents a daytime multispectral detection algorithm for LTMP clouds, based on differential absorption between liquid and ice in shortwave infrared bands (1.61 and 2.25 μm). The LTMP algorithm, previously developed for polar‐orbiting sensors, is applied to Himawari‐8 Advanced Himawari Imager (the first of the next‐generation geostationary satellites) to probe subcloud phase for mixed‐phase clouds over the Southern Ocean. The results are compared with spaceborne active sensor data from CloudSat and CALIPSO. Ship‐based field experiment measurements are examined for selected cases to provide a more direct assessment of algorithm performance. The results show that applying the LTMP algorithm to geostationary satellites has potential to provide advanced time‐resolved observations for mixed‐phase clouds globally with improved sublayer cloud phase information that can support enhancement and validation of global models. Key Points: A multispectral algorithm for daytime liquid‐top mixed‐phase cloud characterization is applied to Himawari‐8 AHISubcloud‐top phase probing results over the Southern Ocean are compared with spaceborne and shipborne observationsGlobal time‐resolved observations for mixed‐phase clouds with the advanced phase information are enabled from geostationary satellites [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropospheric water vapor profile record from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) now spans over a decade, making it a valuable resource for climate studies. To be considered as a Climate Data Record, it is key that the ultimate performance of these observations are understood. The Global Energy and Water cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) water vapor assessment has been tasked with characterizing the current state of the art in water vapor products currently available for climate analysis. Within the scope of this exercise, water vapor profiles from AIRS have been assessed using collocated characterized in situ measurements of tropospheric water vapor between 2007 and 2012. We first show how previously published methods for correcting radiosondes can be applied to global records, which show high correlations to Global Climate Observing System Reference Upper‐Air Network (GRUAN) performance at pressures between the surface and 250 hPa. We go further and show the first comparison of uncertainties from both the newly created Characterized Radiosonde Measurement (CRM) and GRUAN data sets. Global estimates of AIRS water vapor profile (wet/dry) biases relative to GRUAN and CRM are within 6 ± 0.3% ppmv and 15 ± 0.1% ppmv below 300 hPa, respectively. The CRM record allows latitudinal analysis for the first time, which when examined shows sensitivity to changes in absolute concentration due to large‐scale circulation in the International Tropical Convergence Zone. This paper advances the use of state‐of‐the‐art in situ records for characterizing absolute performance, recognizing that long‐term stability needs further research. Key Points: Altitudes below 250‐hPa corrected operational radiosondes show similar uncertainty performance to GRUANAIRS tropospheric water vapor biases relative to GRUAN are within 6 ± 0.3% ppmv below 300 hPaEstimated collocation uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere shown to reduce to below 1% ppmv for calculated yearly biases [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To better understand the potential effects of climate change on atmospheric dynamics, this paper studies Rossby wave breaking and isentropic stratosphere‐troposphere exchange (STE) in the Northern Hemisphere between 320 and 380 K during 1981–2015 using the Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application version 2 data. The isentropic STE is estimated using Contour Advection. Our results show that anticyclonic wave breaking events have become more frequent, especially in summer at higher isentropic surfaces, and cyclonic wave breaking events have become less frequent at 320 K. The anticyclonic wave breaking has shifted poleward in summer. The isentropic STE is found to be strongest over the regions where Rossby wave breaking activities are most frequent. Both isentropic STE and Rossby wave breaking are shown to be strongest in summer and weakest in winter. Our results do not show any discernable trends during isentropic STE during 1981–2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: To investigate future variations in high‐impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble‐mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high‐impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key Points: firestorms are difficult to formblack carbon source scales in a nonlinear fashion with regard to fuel loadReisner et al.'s paper was indeed the worst case [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The unexpected emergence of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic resulted in anthropogenic emissions changes, which have significant consequences for the regional and global climate. However, the long‐term impacts of emission reductions and recovery scenarios on regional climate change in China remain unknown. We use the COVID Model Intercomparison Project (CovidMIP) simulations to project climate change in China in the mid‐21st century under four recovery emission pathways in the post‐COVID era. We found that the temporary emission cut during the COVID‐19 lockdown under the 2‐year‐blip scenario has limited long‐term impact on regional climate change. Anthropogenic emissions are reduced under moderate and stringent greening recovery pathways, leading to reductions of 0.17 ± 0.09°C and 0.35 ± 0.10°C in surface air temperature (SAT) relative to the SSP2‐4.5 baseline in China, respectively. Although the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions decreases SAT, the simultaneous enhanced surface solar radiation due to reduced aerosol concentrations partly offsets the GHG‐induced cooling. Additionally, the weakened aerosol‐cloud interactions associated with reduced aerosols increase the national precipitation by 1.30 ± 0.88 mm month−1 (1.63 ± 1.11%) and 1.91 ± 0.60 mm month−1 (2.39 ± 0.77%) in two green scenarios. As a comparison, regional precipitation decreases by 0.40 ± 0.53 mm month−1 (0.50 ± 0.66%) in the fossil‐based recovery scenario. Therefore, long‐term climate change is more dominated by the emission recovery pathways rather than short‐term emission reduction during the pandemic for China. Plain Language Summary: The COVID‐19 pandemic led to reductions in CO2 and aerosol emissions globally during 2020. This has substantial implications for climate at both the regional and global scales. Here, we use the simulations from CovidMIP to project climate change in China by the midcentury under different COVID‐19 recovery emission pathways. We find that the short‐term emission reduction during the pandemic has limited impacts on the long‐term climate change, which is more dominated by the emission recovery after the pandemic. Under the greening recovery pathway similar to carbon neutrality, reduced CO2 mitigates warming while reduced aerosols increase precipitation in China compared to the baseline climate. Key Points: Short‐term emission reduction during the pandemic has limited impacts on the long‐term climate changeThe cooling from reduced greenhouse gas is partly offset by the warming from reduced aerosols under the greening recovery pathwaysWeakened aerosol‐cloud interactions increase precipitation in China under a carbon neutral pathway [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain because of large differences among projections from various models. In order to explore this uncertainty, we use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of Sahel precipitation and their driving factors. By analyzing projections from the CMIP6 climate models, we show that changes in North Atlantic and in Euro‐Mediterranean temperatures explain up to 60% of the central Sahel precipitation change uncertainty. We then construct several storylines of Sahel precipitation change based on future plausible changes in North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean temperatures. In one storyline, an amplified warming of both the North Atlantic and the Euro‐Mediterranean areas promotes a northward shift of the West African monsoon, increasing precipitation over the central Sahel, while, in the opposite storyline, a moderate warming in both regions is associated with a small change in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel, at the end of the 21st century. These results indicate that Sahel precipitation uncertainty will not be substantially reduced unless the uncertainty in the future warming of the North Atlantic and the Euro‐Mediterranean areas is constrained. Plain Language Summary: Variations in the strength of the West African Monsoon (WAM) circulation have societal impacts on around 80 million people from Senegal to Chad. However, future projections of the WAM precipitation are uncertain for the end of the 21st century because of strong differences from one climate model to another. We show here that sources of uncertainty in Sahel precipitation depend on changes in North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean temperature, relative to changes in global mean surface air temperature. We show that differences in how climate models simulate the future warming over the North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean area explain a large proportion of the uncertainty in precipitation change over the central Sahel. We provide a method that could be helpful at selecting models for impact studies, based on their sensitivity to climate change over the North Atlantic ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Key Points: Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertainChanges in North Atlantic and Euro‐Mediterranean temperatures explain up to 60% of the Sahel precipitation change uncertaintyUncertainty in changes in Sahel precipitation is associated with uncertainty in the future northward shift of the Saharan heat low [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stratosphere‐troposphere exchange (STE) is important to the global radiation budget because it is capable of inducing significant changes in trace greenhouse gases such as ozone and water vapor. In the extratropics, stratosphere‐to‐troposphere—or downward—transport (STT) dominates and is routinely driven by upper‐troposphere jet circulations and cyclones. Tropopause‐overshooting convection provides a more rapid STE pathway, but STT in convection is less understood and targeted observations are limited to a handful of fortuitous aircraft encounters. In this study, we seek to improve understanding of STT near thunderstorm anvils using balloon observations of ozone, ground‐based radar observations, visible satellite imagery, and model output. Radar and satellite imagery are used to identify and ultimately target convection driving the "ozone‐wrapping" process. Herein, observations from a single mesoscale convective system in central Oklahoma are reported. A significant ozone enhancement 40%–60% greater than background concentrations in the free troposphere was observed during the balloon ascent underneath and within the anvil of the storm. Backwards particle trajectories were calculated to rule out other sources of this feature such as long‐range transport of stratospheric air and smoke pollution from nearby wildfires. To our knowledge, this work presents the first targeted ozonesonde launch and sampling of this STT process. Plain Language Summary: Ozone is an important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere that contributes to global climate change. Thunderstorms are one of many processes that transport stratospheric air (high in ozone) to the troposphere, but few studies examine the extent to which thunderstorms impact ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere via this process. In this study, we use novel balloon observations of ozone and additional observations of a storm and its environment to measure ozone change in the upper troposphere. During the passage of a large thunderstorm complex in central Oklahoma on 2 May 2022, our balloon observations measured significant ozone enhancement 40%–60% greater than background concentrations near the periphery of the storm in the upper troposphere. Other potential sources of this feature such as long‐range transport of stratospheric air and smoke pollution from nearby wildfires were ruled out. To our knowledge, this work presents the first targeted balloon launch and sampling of high ozone in the troposphere that was transported from the stratosphere by a thunderstorm. Key Points: The first known successful balloon sampling of the anvil wrapping stratosphere‐to‐troposphere transport process in midlatitude convectionOzone enhancements within the observed anvil wrapping are 40%–60% greater than background troposphere concentrationsSimilar ozone enhancements are found within the observed storm anvil [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polar mesospheric clouds (PMC), or noctilucent clouds, can be observed over high latitudes with the naked eye from the ground or from space near the summer solstice. PMC are considered a direct and sensitive indicator of climate change and have been reported to appear more frequently in recent decades. How PMC will change in the future under the influence of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing is uncertain. In this study, we utilize model output from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model under several shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and input the water vapor, temperature, and pressure information into a 0‐d PMC model to project the trend and variation of PMC over the 21st century, and their relationship to future changes of temperature, water vapor, and the solar cycle. The 0‐d model calculations indicate that PMC ice water content (IWC) will increase and PMC will extend to lower latitudes under high SSP scenarios. Under these scenarios, more mesospheric water vapor leads to an increased IWC of PMC over the polar region, and colder mesopause temperature leads to more PMC over the mid‐latitudes. There is a significant anti‐correlation between the solar cycle and PMC IWC over the 21st century, but the anti‐correlation is not always significant on the decadal scale. Finally, methane oxidation in the stratosphere and water vapor entering from the troposphere are both responsible for future changes in mesospheric water vapor and thus PMC. Plain Language Summary: Polar mesospheric clouds (PMC), also known as noctilucent clouds, are a direct and sensitive indicator of climate change and have been reported to appear more frequently in recent decades. Our numerical model projection of future changes in PMC indicates a possible increase in their ice water content (IWC) with higher future greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease with lower greenhouse gas emissions. The IWC of the PMC can be influenced by the solar cycle, mesospheric water vapor, and temperature. With more greenhouse gas emissions and global surface warming, more water vapor will enter the middle atmosphere or form via the oxidation of methane, thus increasing PMC IWC over the polar region. The associated middle atmospheric cooling increases the IWC of PMC over the mid‐latitudes, and PMC can extend to lower latitudes where PMC have not been commonly seen before. Key Points: Future projections of Polar mesospheric clouds (PMC) for high greenhouse gas emission scenarios indicate an increasing ice water content (IWC) over the 21st centuryThe variation of PMC is mainly determined by mesospheric water vapor over polar region and by mesospheric temperature over mid‐latitudesOver the 21st century, PMC IWC anti‐correlates with the solar cycle. The correlation is not always significant on a decadal time scale [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface ozone (O3) pollution under global climate change has become one of the top environmental issues. In this study, we focused on the coastal region in Southeast China with relatively low O3 precursor's emissions and complicated synoptic conditions, where the O3 trends and meteorological contributions remain unclear. An increasing trend of O3 concentrations in the cities (0.3–4.6 μg m−3 yr−1) from 2015 to 2020 was observed. Twenty‐three synoptic patterns were clustered based on weather typing method, in which cyclone‐related types and southwesterly type were generally associated with low O3 concentrations, and high O3 levels occurred with anticyclone‐related types. Considering both frequency and intensity of synoptic patterns, reconstructed O3 series captured 46.0%–58.3% of the observed variability. Using Kolmogorov‐Zurbenko filter, an increasing trend of long‐term O3 was found. By implementing the multiple linear regression model between O3 concentrations and meteorological factors, the meteorological contributions to O3 variabilities (44.7%–66.1%) were quantified. The results indicated the meteorological conditions were particularly important in O3 pollution with the reductions of O3 precursor's emissions, among which relative humidity, boundary layer height, solar radiation along with low cloud cover were proved to play important roles. The weakening southwest winds along with more anti‐cyclone systems under climate change could increase surface O3. This study elucidated the crucial meteorological drivers on the O3 variability in relatively clean areas and implied the challenges for local governments to mitigate O3 pollution under global climate change. Plain Language Summary: Ozone (O3) pollution has become one of the top environmental issues in recent years and can be affected not only by O3 precursors (volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides) but also meteorological condition. Under global climate change, there is a need to deeply understand the impact of meteorological factors on surface O3 concentrations with the decrease of O3 precursors. In this study, we focus on the coast area of Southeast China with relatively low O3 precursors emissions and influenced by the East Asia monsoon. Temporal and spatial variations of O3 concentrations along with the meteorological impacts on O3 variabilities from 2015 to 2020 were analyzed. The results show that the relative meteorological contributions on O3 trends were 44.7%–66.1%. The higher temperature, lower relative humidity, more solar radiation, weakening southwest winds along with more anti‐cyclone systems under climate change could increase surface O3. This study is beneficial to understand different mechanisms of meteorological impacts on O3 variations in the relatively clean areas, and find out the key drivers to cause O3 pollution with the decrease of O3 precursors emissions and climate change. Key Points: Temporal and spatial variations of O3 concentrations in the coastal of southeast China from 2015 to 2020 were analyzedWeather typing was applied to identify the dominant synoptic patterns and related meteorological factors lead on high O3 concentrationThe contributions of synoptic patterns and meteorological factors on long‐term O3 trends were quantified [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how the transport of gases and aerosols responds to climate change is necessary for policy making and emission controls. There is considerable spread in model projections of tracer transport in climate change simulations, largely because of the substantial uncertainty in projected changes in the large‐scale atmospheric circulation. In particular, a relationship between the response of tropospheric transport into the high latitudes and a shift of the midlatitude jet has been previously established in an idealized modeling study. To test the robustness of this relationship, we analyze the response of a passive tracer of northern midlatitude surface origin to abrupt 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 in a comprehensive climate model (Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2.2‐G). We show that a poleward shift of the northern midlatitude jet and enhanced eddy mixing along isentropes on the poleward flank of the jet result in decreased tracer concentrations over the midlatitudes and increased concentrations over the Arctic. This mechanism is robust in abrupt 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 simulations, the nonlinearity to CO2 forcing, and two versions of the model with different atmospheric chemistry. Preliminary analysis of realistic chemical tracers suggests that the same mechanism can be used to provide insights into the climate change response of anthropogenic pollutants. Plain Language Summary: Pollutants such sulfate aerosols, soot, and carbon monoxide are transported by atmospheric flows from the northern midlatitude surface to higher altitudes and the Arctic. Here we study how this transport responds to climate change by using a passive tracer without chemistry. During northern winter, the westerly jet accelerates and shifts poleward under increased CO2 concentration. This leads to more mixing that brings cleaner air from the subtropical surface to the midlatitude troposphere but also polluted air from the midlatitude surface to the Arctic troposphere. This pattern is robust in tracers with and without chemistry, suggesting that transport changes play an important role in shaping the response of pollutant distributions to climate change. It also suggests that reducing the uncertainty of the midlatitude jet response will facilitate more accurate projection of pollutant transport in a warming climate. Key Points: Response of tropospheric tracer transport from the northern hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to increased CO2 depends on the midlatitude jet responseChanges in isentropic eddy mixing associated with the midlatitude jet dominate the response of the transport to NH high latitudesA poleward shift of the NH midlatitude jet associated with Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakening leads to less tracer in the midlatitudes and more in the Arctic [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate projections in the North Atlantic region suffer from great uncertainties, and projections of precipitation are given with a large spread. Some of this uncertainty is related to projections of the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) projects a relatively strong and extensive NAWH, with future sea surface cooling extending to Northern Scandinavia. This study investigates the relatively large winter precipitation decrease projected by CESM2 in the northeastern North Atlantic region, reinforced in a regional model. Three future scenarios from CESM2 are dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecast model. A methodology to separate convective and orographic from stratiform precipitation is applied to explore the physical mechanisms. Changes in stratiform precipitation closely relate to storm‐track changes, which varies between the scenarios. Convective precipitation decreases by up to 50% over the Norwegian Sea at the end of the century, which is robust across the scenarios. This is explained by the underlying reduced sea surface temperatures of the NAWH, leading to reduced evaporation and reduced convective activity and intensity. The orographic precipitation maximum over the Scandinavian mountains is shifted upstream, likely affected by increased static stability and flow blocking, which also relates to the NAWH. This shift is possibly also explained by more frequent rain versus snow, as well as reduced cross‐barrier wind speeds. This study contributes to highlight the importance of focusing future research efforts on the NAWH, in order to constrain future climate projections in this region. Plain Language Summary: How precipitation patterns and amounts will change in the future is of high societal importance, for example, for hydropower, drinking water, irrigation, industry, and structural design. Given the large uncertainties involved in future climate projections this is still difficult to quantify. One uncertainty is related to climate model predictions of important ocean circulation features in the North Atlantic, which further affect projections of sea surface temperatures. The Community Earth System Model version 2 projects a large area of sea surface cooling in the North Atlantic toward the end of the century. In our study we point to possible connections between this cooling and future decreases in winter precipitation in the northeastern North Atlantic region. This is mostly associated with a reduction in convective precipitation, which is dependent on the temperature of the sea surface. In this area the Scandinavian mountains contribute significantly to the precipitation received through orographic effects. We also find a future upstream shift in the maxima of orographic precipitation, which is indicated to be also (partly) connected to the sea surface cooling. These findings may help in understanding the large spread in future precipitation projections in this region and should urge for more research toward constraining them. Key Points: Winter convective precipitation decreases by up to 50% toward the end of the century in the northeastern North Atlantic regionThis is associated with reduced sea surface temperatures (the North Atlantic warming hole), reduced evaporation and convectionFuture upstream shift in orographic precipitation distribution is likely affected by increasing static stability associated with the NAWH [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mid‐latitudes, the strongly meandering jet stream has contributed to worldwide weather patterns and climate variations. However, the shape variations of the jet and its climatic impacts remain unclear. In this study, we introduced an ellipse‐fitting technique to fit the high‐value wind speeds and identified the location, shape, and strength variations of the winter‐averaged North Pacific jet (NPJ). Particularly, this method has the advantage of objectively detecting the shape variations of the NPJ, including the area and orientation. Focused on the NPJ shape, the area and orientation variations are generally out‐of‐phase, leading to a large‐straight jet and a small‐tilted jet. The shape variation of the NPJ is highly linked to the variations in both mean and extreme temperatures in winter over East Asia and North America. Associated with the small‐tilted NPJ, northern East Asia and northern North America frequently suffer from warm and cold events in winter, respectively, while associated with the large‐straight NPJ, the patterns are almost opposite but with an asymmetric distribution to the small‐tilted NPJ. The distribution of the 300 hPa wind speed anomalies shows a spatial‐asymmetric feature at the exit and entrance of the NPJ. Large positive (negative) anomalies and the poleward (equatorward) shift at the NPJ exit and locations downstream (170°E−140°W) act in combination on the formation and maintenance of the large‐straight (small‐tilted) jet, which may be strongly connected with the sea surface temperature variations and synoptic‐scale transient eddy activities there. Our findings would be helpful in providing potential indicators of temperature variations. Plain Language Summary: The shape of the upper‐level jet stream is closely associated with weather and climate variations, which is not clearly understood yet. In this study, we introduced an ellipse‐fitting technique to fit high‐value wind speeds and identify the location, shape, and strength variations of the North Pacific jet (NPJ). This method has the advantage of objectively detecting characteristics of the jet stream, particularly for shape variations. The shape variations of the NPJ are closely linked to the variations both in winter mean and extreme temperature, particularly over East Asia and North America. Associated with the small‐tilted NPJ, warm events would more frequently occur in the northern part of East Asia, while cold events would easily affect northern North America. Sea surface temperature anomalies and the increased presence of surface high and low‐pressure systems around the jet exit region may have a strong connection with the different structures of the NPJ. Our findings would be helpful in providing a potential indicator of temperature variations. Key Points: An ellipse‐fitting technique has been introduced to detect the jet stream automatically and objectivelyPrimary combinations of the North Pacific jet's (NPJ's) shape include a large‐straight and small‐tilted jetVariations in the NPJ's shape are highly linked to out‐of‐phase variations in temperature extremes over East Asia and North America [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on reanalysis datasets and sea‐ice sensitivity experiments, this study has pointed out that the autumn sea ice loss in East Siberian‐Chukchi‐Beaufort (EsCB) Seas significantly increases the frequency of winter extreme low temperature over western‐central China. Autumn sea ice loss warms the troposphere and generates anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic region 1 month later. Under the effects of synoptic eddy‐mean flow interaction and anomalous upward propagated planetary wave 2, the Arctic anticyclonic anomaly strengthens and develops toward Greenland‐Northern Europe, accompanied by a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. In winter, following intra‐seasonal downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies, the Northern European positive geopotential height anomalies enhance and expand downstream within 7 days, favoring Arctic cold air east of Novaya Zemlya southward (the hyperpolar path) accumulating in Siberia around Lake Baikal. In the subsequent 2–3 days, these cold anomalies rapidly intrude western‐central China and induce abrupt sharp cooling, thus more frequent extreme low temperature there. In contrast, the role of autumn Barents‐Kara (BK) sea ice loss exhibits quite different features, mainly favoring northwestern, northeastern and eastern China to experience increased frequency of extreme low temperature in winter. Plain Language Summary: Arctic sea ice change not only regulates the local ecosystem but extends its influences into mid‐even low‐latitudes through several complicated physical processes. Sea ice variation in EsCB Seas exhibits an increased amplitude and more crucial role in climate change under global warming. The new findings hinted that autumn EsCB sea ice decrease would significantly promote western‐central China to experience more frequent winter extreme low temperature. In responses, an Arctic anticyclonic anomaly occurs 1 month later and develops toward Greenland‐Northern Europe due to synoptic eddy‐mean flow interaction. Enhanced upward propagated planetary wave 2 and associated wave‐mean flow interaction maintains the tropospheric Arctic anomalies and weakens the stratospheric polar vortex. When entering winter, following intra‐seasonal downward propagated stratospheric anomalies, the Northern European anticyclonic anomaly strengthens downstream within 7 days, favoring Arctic cold air east of Novaya Zemlya rapidly invading western‐central China (the hyperpolar path) and sudden sharp cooling. Our results have understood how autumn EsCB sea ice loss contributes to extreme low temperature in China, including possible physical mechanisms and cold air pathways, unlike previous work focusing on BK Seas and winter‐mean temperature change. It provides a new factor and theoretical foundations for predicting winter extreme low temperature. Key Points: Autumn East Siberian‐Chukchi‐Beaufort sea ice loss favors cold air east of Novaya Zemlya invading western‐central China, thus more frequent extreme low temperatureSynoptic eddy‐mean flow interaction and anomalous upward planetary wave 2 provide favorable anticyclonic anomaly for extreme events outburstIntra‐seasonal downward propagated stratospheric anomalies are vital for the Ural anticyclonic anomaly to develop downstream within 7 days [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turbulent and radiative energy exchanges between lakes and the atmosphere play an important role in determining the process of lake‐mixing and stratification, including how lakes respond to climate and to climate change. Here we used a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model to assess seasonal impacts of climate change on individual surface heat flux components in Lough Feeagh, Ireland, a deep, monomictic lake. We drove the lake model with an ensemble of outputs from four climate models under three future greenhouse gas scenarios from 1976 to 2099. In these experiments, the results showed significant increases in the radiative budget that were largely counteracted by significant increases in the turbulent fluxes. The combined change in the individual surface heat fluxes led to a change in the total surface heat flux that was small, but sufficient to lead to significant changes in the volume‐weighted average lake temperature. The largest projected changes in total surface heat fluxes were in spring and autumn. Both spring heating and autumnal cooling significantly decreased under future climate conditions, while changes to total surface heat fluxes in winter and summer were an order of magnitude lower. This led to counter‐intuitive results that, in a warming world, there would be less heat not more entering Lough Feeagh during the springtime, and little change in net heating over the summer or winter compared to natural climate conditions, projected increases in the volume‐weighted average lake temperature were found to be largely due to reduced heat loss during autumn. Plain Language Summary: The exchange of energy between the lake and the atmosphere is important to understand how atmospheric forcing affects the vertical thermal structure of lakes, especially in an era of climate change. Here, we perform a lake model experiment to better understand how surface heat fluxes in Lough Feeagh (Ireland) will respond to future greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that surface heat fluxes will change substantially in the future as a result of the changes in the atmospheric forcing. Lake heating by net radiative fluxes will increase and will be nearly offset by lake heat loss trough turbulent fluxes increase. This small positive imbalance in surface heat fluxes will lead to an increase in lake water temperature. On a seasonal scale, spring and autumn will show the largest changes in net surface heat flux, both the spring heating and autumnal cooling will decrease, while summer and winter will show very little change in net surface heat flux. This leads to the counter‐intuitive results that in a warming world there will be less heat, not more, entering Lough Feeagh during the spring, and that decreased heat loss during autumn will be largely responsible for the long‐term changes in lake water temperature. Key Points: Future projections of surface heat fluxes in Lough Feeagh under different emission scenariosSignificant increases in the annual mean radiative balance were largely offset by significant increases in the annual mean turbulent fluxesBoth spring heating and autumnal cooling significantly decreased under future climate conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Central Asia, which is one of the most complex regions in the world, is crisscrossed with transboundary rivers shared by several countries. This paper analyzes the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes and water resources in these transboundary rivers over the past half century. The results show that the average temperature in the Tienshan Mountains experienced “sharp” increases in 1998, with the average temperature after 1998 being 1.0°C higher than that during 1960–1998. This rapid warming has accelerated glacier shrinkage and decreases in snow cover. These changes influenced the hydrological processes, causing an earlier runoff peak and aggravated extreme hydrological events. Changes in mountainous hydrological processes affected regional water availability and intensified future water crisis in Central Asia. The mismatched spatial distributions of water and land resources, along with the intense human activities (e.g., overexploitation of water resources), have ultimately led to the present water crisis in Central Asia's river basins. This is the main reason for ongoing water conflicts in the region's transboundary rivers and the ecological disaster of the Aral Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deadly and destructive nature of tropical cyclones (TCs) makes understanding their response to future climate change of the utmost importance. TC genesis hinges on multiple factors, including an initial disturbance. African easterly waves (AEWs) have been shown to serve as such disturbances for TCs developing in the North Atlantic. It is therefore crucial to understand the relationship between AEWs and TCs and how this relationship may be affected by climate change. In this study, we examine the AEW‐TC relationship in historical and future climates using three models from the HighResMIP PRIMAVERA simulations. The AEWs and TCs were tracked in the model data using objective tracking algorithms, and AEW and TC tracks were then matched together if they were close to each other in space and time. The strength of the AEWs was measured using the eddy kinetic energy and the curvature vorticity of the waves. TC strength and intensity were measured using potential intensity and lifetime maximum 10 m windspeed. We found that future changes in the frequency of AEWs are not a good indicator of future TC activity. However, AEW strength, as well as environmental conditions conducive to strong TCs, are good indicators of AEWs that develop into TCs in both historical and future climates. Plain Language Summary: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are both deadly and destructive and it is important to understand how they will respond to future climate change. African easterly waves (AEWs) are disturbances that can develop into TCs that form in the North Atlantic. The relationship between AEWs and TCs is an important part of understanding how TCs will be affected by climate change. In this study, we examine the AEW‐TC relationship in historical and future climates using three climate models. AEWs and TCs were tracked in the model data, and AEW and TC tracks were then matched together if they were close to each other in space and time. The number of AEWs and TCs in the historical and future climates were compared. We found that future changes in the number of AEWs are not a good indicator of future changes in the number of TCs. However, AEW strength, as well as environmental conditions conducive to strong TCs, are good indicators of AEWs that develop into TCs in both historical and future climates. Key Points: Future changes in the frequency of African easterly waves (AEWs) are not a good indicator of future tropical cyclone (TC) activityAEWs that develop into TCs are stronger than non‐developing waves in historical and future climatesWave strength combined with environmental conditions are good indicators of tropical cyclogenesis from waves [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we developed a regional coupled model for the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asian region. The atmospheric/oceanic component of the coupled model was the Weather Research and Forecasting and the Regional Ocean Modeling System, coupled through the National Center for Atmospheric Research Coupler version 7 (CPL7). An evaluation is provided through the simulation of the climatology and interannual variability of the summer monsoon climate from 1982 to 2015. The coupled model is also compared with a solely atmospheric run, which is driven by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) as the surface boundary. The results show that the coupled model has good capability in modeling the climate in the WNP and East Asian domain, including the climatology of summer precipitation and circulation, the subseasonal (month‐to‐month) variation in the western Pacific subtropical high and associated precipitation, and the seasonal cycle of the East Asian rain belt. One merit of this model is its ability to simulate the northward and eastward shift from early to late summer. With respect to the interannual variability, the model captures the spatial pattern of the leading mode of summer precipitation, with a north–south dipole mode in the studied region. The model also reproduces the larger SST variability in the northern part of this region. The temporal correlation coefficient between the coupled simulation and observation was 0.70 for the precipitation and 0.53 for the SST leading mode. The coupled model also captures the precipitation–SST relationship, which results from reasonably considering the air–sea coupling processes in the coupled run. Plain Language Summary: Due to the resolution of global models is relatively coarse and cannot describe the regional features, especially in the monsoon regions, regional climate model is an essential solution for regional climate simulation and projection. Compared with atmospheric alone model which is driven by prescribed sea surface temperature, regional air‐sea coupled model can describe reasonably the air‐sea coupling processes and has better performance. In this study, an regional coupled model is developed based on the Community Earth System Model coupler version 7 framework. Based on our analysis, the regional coupled model reasonably reproduced most key characteristics in the East Asian monsoon region. In addition to being used in regional climate simulation and projection, it can also be conveniently coupled with global models through the coupler 7. Thus with this useful tool in future we can develop global‐regional two‐way coupling simulation system for climate predictions and projections. Key Points: A regional coupled model is developed for East Asia and western North Pacific region based on Community Earth System Model frameworkClimatology and interannual variability of the summer monsoon climate have been evaluatedThe model can well capture the climatological northward and eastward movements of the western Pacific subtropical high from June to August [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tarim River, the largest inland river in China, sits in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), which is an arid area with the ecosystem primarily sustained by water from melting snow and glaciers in the headstream area. To evaluate the pressures of natural disasters in this climate‐change‐sensitive basin, this study projected flash droughts in the headstream area of the TRB. We used the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model to describe the hydrological processes of the study area, Markov chain Monte Carlo to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the VIC model. Ten downscaled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to drive the VIC model, and the standardized evaporative stress ratio was applied to identify flash droughts. The results demonstrated that the VIC model after Bayesian parameters uncertainty analysis can efficiently describe the hydrological processes of the study area. In the future (2021–2100), compared with the plain region, the alpine region has higher flash drought frequency and intensity. Compared with the historical period (1961–2014), the frequency, duration, and intensity of flash droughts tend to increase throughout the study area, especially for the alpine area. Moreover, based on variance decomposition, CMIP6 model is the most important uncertainty source for flash drought projection, followed by the shared socioeconomic pathway of climate change scenario and VIC model parameters. Plain Language Summary: The Tarim River is the largest inland river in China, which is an arid area with the ecosystem primarily sustained by water from melting snow and glaciers in the headstream area. Compared with long‐duration drought, flash drought is more difficult to forecast and identify. We used the variable infiltration capacity model to build a hydrological model of the headstream area of the Tarim River Basin, and the model output (ET data) was used to identify flash droughts. Based on 10 representative Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, this study projected the future flash droughts in the study area under climate change. The findings indicated that the alpine region is likely to experience a greater frequency and intensity of flash droughts in the future (2021–2100) compared to the plain region. Compared with the historical period (1961–2014), the frequency, duration, and intensity of flash droughts tend to increase throughout the study area, especially for the alpine area. In addition, the result of uncertainty decomposition revealed that the CMIP6 model is the most important uncertainty source for flash drought projection. Key Points: The hydrological processes of study area are well described by the variable infiltration capacity model and Bayesian uncertainty analysisCompared with the plain region, the alpine region has higher flash drought frequency and intensity in the futureThe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model is the most important uncertainty source for flash drought projection [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clouds over tropical oceans are an important factor in the Earth's response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, but their representation in climate models is challenging due to the small‐scale nature of the involved convective processes. We perform two 4‐year‐long simulations at kilometer‐resolution (3.3 km horizontal grid spacing) with the limited‐area model COSMO over the tropical Atlantic on a 9,000 × 7,000 km2 domain: A control simulation under current climate conditions driven by the ERA5 reanalysis, and a climate change scenario simulation using the Pseudo‐Global Warming approach. We compare these results to the changes projected in the CMIP6 scenario ensemble. Validation shows a good representation of the annual cycle of albedo, in particular for trade‐wind clouds, even compared to the ERA5 reanalysis. Also, the vertical structure and annual cycle of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is accurately simulated, and the simulation does not suffer from the double ITCZ problem commonly present in global climate models (GCMs). The response to global warming differs between the COSMO simulation and the analyzed GCMs. While both exhibit an overall weakening of the Hadley circulation, the narrowing of the ITCZ (known as the deep‐tropics squeeze) is not so pronounced in the kilometer‐resolution simulation, likely due to the absence of a double ITCZ bias. Also, there is a more pronounced intensification of the ITCZ at the equator in the kilometer‐resolution COSMO simulation, and a stronger associated increase in the anvil cloud fraction. Plain Language Summary: Tropical clouds are an important component of the climate system as they can either amplify or dampen human‐induced climate change. However, predicting how clouds will change in a warming climate is challenging due to their small‐scale nature. We perform high‐resolution atmospheric climate simulations over the tropical Atlantic to study what we can learn about tropical clouds from this relatively novel type of models. We validate the simulation under current climate conditions and find a good representation of tropical clouds in comparison to coarser climate models. In particular, the high‐resolution simulation does not suffer from the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) problem commonly present in global climate models. We then study how tropical clouds will change in a warming climate and find differences between our high‐resolution simulation and coarser climate simulations. The tropical overturning (Hadley) circulation weakens in both model types, but the narrowing of the ITCZ (known as the deep‐tropics squeeze) is not so pronounced in the high‐resolution simulation, likely due to the absence of a double ITCZ bias. Key Points: We perform a km‐resolution climate simulation over the tropical Atlantic for current and future climate conditions using the Pseudo‐Global Warming approachWe find an accurate representation of the annual cycle of shallow cumulus clouds and a realistic structure of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), without double ITCZThe ITCZ shows a stronger central intensification and weaker narrowing with warming than in the global climate models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the runoff response to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is critical to water resources management since TP is the "Water Tower of Asia" and is sensitive to climate change. However, previous studies have paid more attention to the changes in annual and monthly runoff. Therefore, the changes in the characteristics of floods and droughts are still unknown, particularly in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin (YRB) in the southern TP. Therefore, this study simulates the runoff in four subbasins in the YRB using the GR4J_SNOW model to depict the characteristics (including frequency, severity, peak, and duration) of floods on a daily scale and those of droughts on a monthly scale. It is done in historical (1979–2014) and future (2049–2084) periods under different climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and then the changes in floods and droughts between the two periods are comprehensively compared. The results indicate that the YRB has experienced marginal streamflow change during the historical period. Under future varying climate change scenarios, however, the YRB might become wetter with increasing frequency, volume, and peak of floods, along with decreasing frequency, severity, and duration of droughts. In the upstream YRB, covered by more snow with a drier climate, the flood and drought characteristics appear to be more sensitive to climate change than in the downstream YRB. This study is helpful for a better understanding of the hydrological process in the TP under climate change and for forming sustainable water resource strategies for the surrounding regions of the TP. Plain Language Summary: The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the Asian water tower, providing water resources to hundreds of millions of people living downstream. The Yarlung Zangbo River basin (YRB), located in the southern part of the TP, has attracted increasing attention because most of the Tibetan people live there and it is the upper stream of the Brahmaputra River. It is not clear how floods and droughts, the two most serious natural disasters, could change under climate change in the YRB. This study simulates the changes in flood and drought characteristics in the YRB in the historical (1979–2014) and future (2049–2084) periods under different climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our results show that the YRB could become wetter with increasing floods and mitigated droughts in the future, despite minor changes in flood and drought characteristics in the historical period. The change could be stronger upstream than downstream. This study can be helpful for long‐term water resource management and planning on the TP. Key Points: The characteristics of floods and droughts in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin (YRB) are comprehensively analyzed in the past and futureThe YRB is expected to become wetter in the future, reflected by increased floods and alleviated droughtsThe flood and drought characteristics in its drier upstream are more sensitive to climate change than those in the humid downstream [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Derechos are widespread and long‐lived straight‐line windstorms associated with fast‐moving mesoscale convective systems that cause severe life and property loss. This study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming. Convection‐permitting regional model ensemble simulations of the derecho as observed are compared with simulations under a pseudo‐global warming scenario of the future environments by the end of the 21st century following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5‐8.5). The control simulations can well reproduce the observed derecho features, including storm evolution, surface wind, and precipitation, except for a 2‐hr delay relative to observations. Compared to the control simulations, the derecho shrinks and decays earlier in the future environments, with much less destructive impacts on the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areas. The derecho shrinkage is attributed to lower relative humidity on both sides of the derecho propagation path under global warming, which suppresses updraft and strengthens downdraft, impeding the spatial extent of the derecho. The premature decay is due to the intensification of an isolated deep convection (IDC) event that develops ahead of the derecho. The meridional gradient of future warming strengthens the synoptic environments, enhancing convergence in a corridor of higher instability that facilitates intensification and continuous development of the IDC. By consuming energy and moisture on the derecho propagation path, the IDC hinders the derecho development in the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areas. Focusing on a single derecho, this study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho. Plain Language Summary: Derechos are widespread and long‐lived straight‐line windstorms that cause severe life and property loss. This study investigates how the June 2012 North American derecho could unfold in the future with global warming by applying the pseudo‐global warming approach to convection‐permitting regional model simulations. The study reveals how changes in the thermodynamic environment with warming could induce complex changes in the derecho. Compared to simulations of the derecho that was observed, the derecho would shrink and decay earlier in future environments with warming. Key Points: In convection‐permitting simulations, the June 2012 North American derecho shrinks in the first half of its lifecycle under future warmingFuture warming may potentially cause the premature decay of the derecho and reduce its destructive impact in the Mid‐Atlantic coastal areasThe decay is due to strengthening of an isolated deep convection event, consuming energy and moisture and hindering the derecho development [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have examined the influence of global climate change and regional human activities on the climate of arid Central Asia, but their separate contributions have rarely been reported due to lack of a comprehensive description of regional human activities, especially the irrigation process, in the model. In this study, we conducted two sets of 40‐year continuous simulations with and without human activities to distinguish the effects of regional human activities and global climate change on the surface air temperature (T2), humidity (Q2) and precipitation of a typical mountain‐oasis‐desert system in northern Tianshan by using a modified WRF‐Noah model with irrigation processes. The results indicated that the annual average T2, Q2 and convective precipitation during the past 40 years increased by 0.393°C, 0.063 g/kg and 0.014 mm/d, respectively, and the annual average large‐scale precipitation and total annual average precipitation decreased by approximately −0.017 and −0.003 mm/d, respectively. Regional human activities contributed 52.63% and 50.38% of the change in large‐scale precipitation and total precipitation, respectively, while global climate change accounted for more than 80% of the change in temperature and humidity. Among the human activities, irrigation had the largest impact on T2/Q2 over the local irrigation region and on precipitation in the upstream Tianshan mountainous area. However, for the whole region, the increase in the green vegetation fraction was the core factor that impacted the regional climate. Our results can deepen the understanding of the attribution and mechanism of climate change and provide water and heat change references for other mountain‐oasis‐desert systems in arid endorheic regions. Plain Language Summary: We counted the separate contributions of global climate change and regional human activities on the surface air temperature (T2), humidity (Q2) and precipitation of arid Central Asia by difference of two sets of 40‐year continuous simulations with and without human activities. The results indicated that regional human activities contributed 52.63% and 50.38% of the change in large‐scale precipitation and total precipitation, respectively, while global climate change accounted for more than 80% of the change in temperature and humidity. Among the human activities, irrigation had the largest impact on T2/Q2 over the local irrigation region and on precipitation in the upstream Tianshan mountainous area. But the vegetation greening was main reason for the changes of regional climate for the whole region. Our results can deepen the understanding of the attribution and mechanism of climate change and provide water and heat change references for other mountain‐oasis‐desert systems in arid endorheic regions. Key Points: The attribution and mechanism of regional climate change in a typical mountain‐oasis‐desert system of arid Central Asia were exploredGlobal climate change dominated regional temperature change while regional human activities dominated regional precipitation changeThe increase in the green vegetation fraction was the core factor that impacted regional climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in rainwater affects climate change and global carbon cycles. Relatively little work has focused on DOC and the remaining water‐insoluble components (WICs) simultaneously; moreover, the potential transformation of WICs to DOC remains questionable. The WICs (i.e., nonleachable particulates) were extracted from rainwater collected in suburban Guiyang (southwestern China) over a 1‐year period. Correlations of DOC with indicative parameters (e.g., potassium, calcium, and sulfate ions) showed that DOC (271 ± 152 μmol L−1) was partly derived from biomass burning, soils, and nitrate‐ and sulfate‐related secondary processes. Moreover, DOC concentration tended to increase with decreasing particulate amino acid‐based degradation index, likely suggesting that the biodegradation of WICs can enhance DOC abundance. Further, a laboratory simulation with WICs from rainwater and particulate matter (PM2.5) demonstrated the microbe‐driven rapid increase in DOC. The organic matter in rainwater was compositionally similar to that in concurrently collected PM2.5, suggesting that rainwater DOC in this area was largely controlled by in‐cloud scavenging of fine particles. This consideration was confirmed by insignificant differences in volume‐weighted DOC concentrations between forepart and posterior (cloud water with little below‐cloud scavenging effect) rainwater. Since the time for rainwater to reach the ground is fairly short, the overall results can indicate that the in‐cloud processing of WICs is a potential source of rainwater DOC. Moreover, this source contribution was estimated to be less than 2% per day. Therefore, the study provides novel insights into the carbon cycle in the atmosphere and surface ecosystems. Plain Language Summary: Much of the work has focused on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in rainwater, leaving relatively little information regarding the water‐insoluble components (WICs). Moreover, the potential contribution of WICs to DOC in rainwater was poorly understood. DOC in local rainwater was partly derived from anthropogenic and natural inputs and subsequent atmospheric reactions. In particular, DOC concentration tended to increase with decreasing particulate amino acid‐based degradation index, suggesting that DOC abundance may be partly associated with the biodegradation of WICs. Further, the laboratory simulation with WICs from rainwater and PM2.5 suggested that atmospherically derived microorganisms can lead to DOC release from WICs. We observed that the organic matter in rainwater was compositionally similar to that in concurrently collected PM2.5; moreover, there was an insignificant difference in volume‐weighted DOC concentrations between forepart and posterior (less washout effect) rainwater. Thus, DOC in rainwater in this suburban area was largely controlled by in‐cloud scavenging of fine particles. As we know, the time for cloud drops to reach the ground is very short. Apparently, these results implied that the in‐cloud processing of WICs is a potential origin of DOC in rainwater. Our findings may improve the understanding of the carbon cycle in the atmosphere and surface ecosystems. Key Points: Significant correlation between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate amino acid‐based degradation index may indicate the biodegradation of water‐insoluble components (WICs) to release water‐soluble organic matter (WSOM) in rainwaterMolecular composition characteristics of rainwater WSOM and WIC‐derived WSOM demonstrate microbe‐driven WIC degradationIn‐cloud processing of WICs is a potential source of DOC in rainwater [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In June‐July 2020, the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Region (MLYR) encountered the most severe precipitation event over the past 60 years. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the previous autumn of the unusual precipitation event was the main contributing factor. Nonetheless, not every strong IOD event could bring anomalously high precipitation in the MLYR. This study showed significantly enhanced influence of IOD on East Asia climate since 2000. The IOD's effect on MLYR summer precipitation has strengthened significantly with the correlation coefficient up to 0.55 during 2000–2020. The northward movement of East Asia–Pacific pattern associated with IOD since 2000 (as compared with before) was primarily responsible for the enhanced effect. Since 2000, the MLYR has been controlled by a deep baroclinic instability system with anomalous low pressure in the lower troposphere and anomalous high pressure (completely different from before). Furthermore, the western Pacific subtropical high shifted northward and westerly jets were significantly enhanced with eastward expansion. All of these patterns contributed to the water vapor convergence and precipitation generation in the MLYR, which was not the case in the past. The record‐breaking IOD in 2019 autumn and the enhanced IOD's climatic effect in 2000–2020 contribute to the extreme Meiyu in 2020 jointly. The significant change in the influence of IOD and the enhanced climate effect of IOD highlight exciting new avenues for improving climate predictions in the MLYR. Plain Language Summary: The excessive Meiyu rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Region (MLYR) during summer 2020 was beyond expectations of meteorologists, because in the 2019/20 winter, the Niño3.4 index was marginal at only 0.5°C as compared to 2.4°C and 2.6°C in 1997/98 and 2015/16 winters, respectively. Researches pointed out that the severely positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the previous season was the main contributing factor on 2020 extreme Meiyu event in the MLYR. Nonetheless, not every strong IOD event could bring anomalously high precipitation in the MLYR. Our study shows significantly enhanced influence of IOD on East Asia climate since 2000. The IOD's effect on MLYR summer precipitation has strengthened significantly with the correlation coefficient up to 0.55 during 2000–2020. The IOD‐induced circulation patterns, including East Asia–Pacific pattern, the western Pacific subtropical high, and westerly jets, shifted northward with stronger intensity since 2000 (as compared with before). These results help us to reconsider the influence of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature when forecasting weather or the possible climate changes under global warming. Key Points: The impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the Yangtze precipitation has enhanced in recent decadesThe IOD‐induced East Asia–Pacific pattern moves northward since 2000The interdecadal change in IOD's climatic effect largely contributes to the extreme Meiyu in 2020 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake ice sublimation plays an important role in lake water budget, while there is huge uncertainty in estimation of lake ice sublimation and its proportion in annual lake total water vapor flux. In the present study, we investigated the annual total water vapor flux and ice sublimation at 15 frozen lakes or lake groups in China using three different methods, namely, the Community Land Model (CLM) simulations (Penman‐Monteith equation and pan observations) that considers (could not reflect) heat storage of lakes; the potential changes of lake total water vapor flux and ice sublimation with climate warming were also predicted. The results illustrate that the annual lake total water vapor flux obtained from Penman‐Monteith equation, pan observation, CLM simulation decreased in sequence, and ice sublimation obtained from pan observation, Penman‐Monteith equation, CLM simulation decreased in sequence. The lake ice sublimation from CLM occupied 7.4%–26.6% of corresponding annual lake total water vapor flux during 1950s–2010s in different regions of China. The ice sublimation and its proportion in lake total water vapor flux from these three methods were all highly correlated, with R2 being 0.86–0.97. The annual lake total water vapor flux will significantly increase in all frozen‐lake regions in China with the climate warming. Climate warming potentially reduce sublimation at most lakes. Key Points: Community Land Model (CLM) method is more accurate than pan and P‐M methods in calculating lake ice sublimationIce sublimation from CLM occupied 7.4%–26.6% of lake total water vapor fluxAnnual lake total water vapor flux will significantly increase in China with climate warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Africa, with its vast arid to semiarid areas, is considered vulnerable to precipitation changes and amplifying weather extremes. However, during the last 100 ka, huge lakes existed in the currently dry central Kalahari. It has been suggested that these lakes could have existed due to altered atmospheric circulation pattern, leading to an increase in precipitation or to changes in the annual precipitation distribution. Past climate changes are recorded in paleo‐archives, yet, for a proper interpretation of paleo‐records, for example, from sedimentological archives or fossils, it is essential to put them in a context with recent observations. This study's objective is, therefore, to analyze spatially differing annual precipitation distributions at multiple locations in southern Africa with respect to their stable water isotope composition, moisture transport pathways, and sources. Five different precipitation distributions are identified by end‐member modeling and respective rainfall zones are inferred, which differ significantly in their isotopic compositions. By calculating backward trajectories, different moisture source regions are identified for the rainfall zones and linked to typical circulation patterns. Our results furthermore show the importance of the seasonality, the amount effect, and the traveled distance of the moisture for the general isotopic composition over the entire southern Africa. The identified pattern and relationships can be useful in the evaluation of isotope‐enabled climate models for the region and are potentially of major importance for the interpretation of stable water isotope composition in paleo‐records in future research. Key Points: We identified five different annual precipitation distributions in southern Africa that cluster in space and define rainfall zonesLagrangian source diagnostic shows that the rainfall zones have notably different moisture sourcesThe isotopic composition differs significantly between rainfall zones [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intraseasonal meridional wave trains are the major features of East Asia summer monsoon (EASM), but the complete physical pictures of dynamic pathways from tropical and mid‐high latitudes and their climate impacts have not been fully illustrated. With NCEP‐DOE Reanalysis‐II daily data set, two boreal summer intraseasonal meridional oscillations (ISMOs) are isolated and identified by extended EOF of zonal wind anomalies along the coast of East Asia on 10‐ to 30‐day timescale, that is, ISMO1 and ISMO2. They both demonstrate obvious quasi‐biweekly oscillations with an equivalent barotropic structure in troposphere, and ISMO1 represents the southward propagating wave train with large variances in upper level, which is initiated from the West Europe and primarily forced by the soil moisture anomalies over mid‐high latitudes of Eurasian continent, whereas ISMO2 propagates northward in mid‐lower troposphere from the tropical western North Pacific to East Asia that is closely related to BSISO2. The two ISMOs are capable of explaining a large fraction of the total intraseasonal variances of EASM, wherein, ISMO1 is responsible for a meridional dipole pattern of precipitation anomalies over eastern China, while ISMO2 has major influence in southern China. Generally, ISMO‐caused changes of extreme precipitation probability are in good accordance with the spatial pattern of its related 10‐ to 30‐day intraseasonal precipitation anomalies. Since ISMO1 and ISMO2 can clearly separate the tropical and extratropical‐origin meridional oscillations and further have robust influences on precipitation over East Asia, they can be used as the new monitoring and predicting factors to the intraseasonal variations of EASM and their associated extreme precipitation. Key Points: Two intraseasonal meridional oscillations (ISMOs) over East Asia are identified with equivalent barotropic structure and biweekly periodISMOs can be forced by the tropical convection and the mid‐high latitude land surface and propagate northward and southward, respectivelyISMOs represent a large fraction of intraseasonal climate variations over East Asia and have significant impact on extreme precipitation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]