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Quantifying historic changes in glacier size and mass balance is important for understanding how the cryosphere responds to climate variability and change. Airborne photogrammetry enables glacier extent and equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) to be monitored for more glaciers at lower cost than traditional mass-balance programs and other remote-sensing techniques. Since 1977, end-of-summer-snowlines, which are a proxy for annual ELAs, have been recorded for 50 glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand using oblique aerial photographs. In this study, we use structure from motion photogrammetry to estimate the camera parameters, including position, for historic photographs, which we then use to measure glacier change. We apply this method to a small maritime New Zealand glacier (Brewster Glacier, 1670–2400 m a.s.l.) to derive annual ELA and length records between 1981 and 2017, and quantify the uncertainties associated with the method. Our length reconstruction shows largely continuous terminus retreat of 365 ± 12 m for Brewster Glacier since 1981. The ELA record, which compares well with glaciological mass-balance data measured between 2005 and 2015, shows pronounced interannual variability. Mean ELAs range from 1707 ± 6 to 2303 ± 5 m a.s.l., with the highest ELAs occurring in the last decade.

Recognising the scarcity of glacier mass-balance data in the Southern Hemisphere, a mass-balance measurement programme was started at Brewster Glacier in the Southern Alps of New Zealand in 2004. Evolution of the measurement regime over the 11 years of data recorded means there are differences in the spatial density of data obtained. To ensure the temporal integrity of the dataset a new geostatistical approach is developed to calculate mass balance. Spatial co-variance between elevation and snow depth allows a digital elevation model to be used in a co-kriging approach to develop a snow depth index (SDI). By capturing the observed spatial variability in snow depth, the SDI is a more reliable predictor than elevation and is used to adjust each year of measurements consistently despite variability in sampling spatial density. The SDI also resolves the spatial structure of summer balance better than elevation. Co-kriging is used again to spatially interpolate a derived mean summer balance index using SDI as a co-variate, which yields a spatial predictor for summer balance. The average glacier-wide surface winter, summer and annual balances over the period 2005–15 are 2484, −2586 and −102 mm w.e., respectively, with changes in summer balance explaining most of the variability in annual balance.

Short-term glacier velocity variations typically occur when a water input is accommodated by an increase in the subglacial water pressure. Although these velocity variations have been well documented on many glaciers, few studies have considered them on glaciers where heavy rain and glacier melt occur year-round. This study investigates the relationship between water inputs and glacier velocity on Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand. We installed six GNSS stations across the lower glacier during austral summer 2010/11 and one station during summer 2012/13. Glacier velocity remained elevated at all stations for ∼7 days following large rain events. During diurnal melt events, we find velocity variations in the early afternoon (12:00–16:00) at 600 m a.s.l. and in the late evening (20:00–01:00) at 400 m a.s.l. We hypothesize that the late-evening velocity variations occurred as an upstream region of high subglacial water pressures and accelerated ice motion propagated downstream. This mechanism may also explain the increased longitudinal compression and transverse extension across the lower glacier during speed-up events. Our results indicate that the subglacial drainage system likely decreases in efficiency upstream and that the water input variability can still cause short-term velocity variations despite the large year-round water inputs.

Coverage of ice velocities in the central part of the Southern Alps, New Zealand, is obtained from feature tracking using repeat optical imagery in 2002 and 2006. Precise orthorectification, co-registration and correlation is carried out using the freely available software COSI-Corr. This analysis, combined with short times between image acquisitions, has enabled velocities to be captured even in the accumulation areas, where velocities are lowest and surface features ephemeral. The results indicate large velocities for mountain glaciers (i.e. up to ∼5 m d−1) as well as dynamic changes in some glaciers that have occurred between 2002 and 2006. For the steep and more responsive Fox and Franz Josef Glaciers the speed increased at the glacier snout during the advance period, while the low-angled and debris-covered Tasman Glacier showed no measurable velocity change. Velocity increases on the steeper glaciers are the result of an observed thickening and steepening of the glacier tongues as they moved from a retreat phase in 2002 to an advance phase in 2006. This contrasting behaviour is consistent with historic terminus position changes. The steeper glaciers have undergone several advance/retreat cycles during the observation period (1894 to present), while the low-angled glacier showed little terminus response until retreat resulting from the accelerating growth of a proglacial lake commenced in 1983.

The sensitivity of glaciers to climatic change is key information in assessing the response and sea-level implications of projected future warming. New Zealand glaciers are important globally as an example of how maritime glaciers will contribute to sea-level rise. A spatially distributed energy-balance model is applied to Brewster Glacier, New Zealand, in order to calculate glacier mass balance, run-off and sensitivity to climate change. The model successfully simulates four annual mass-balance cycles. Close to half (52%) of the energy available for melt on the glacier is supplied by turbulent heat fluxes, with radiation less important, except during the winter. Model sensitivity to temperature change is one of the largest reported on Earth, at −2.0 m w.e. a−1 °C−1. In contrast, a 50% change in precipitation is required to offset the mass-balance change resulting from a 1 °C temperature change. Meltwater runoff sensitivity is also very high, increasing 60% with a 1°C warming. The extreme sensitivity of mass balance to temperature change suggests that significant ice loss will occur with even moderate climate warming.

Despite their relatively small total ice volume, mid-latitude valley glaciers are expected to make a significant contribution to global sea-level rise over the next century due to the sensitivity of their mass-balance systems to small changes in climate. Here we use a degree-day model to reconstruct the past century of mass-balance variation at ‘Ka Roimata o Hine Hukatere’ Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand, and to predict how mass balance may change over the next century. Analysis of the relationship between temperature, precipitation and mass balance indicates that temperature is a stronger control than precipitation on the mass balance of Franz Josef Glacier. The glacier’s mass balance, relative to its 1986 geometry, has decreased at a mean annual rate of 0.02m a–1w.e. between 1894 and 2005. We compare this reduction to observations of terminus advance and retreat, of which Franz Josef Glacier has the best record in the Southern Hemisphere. For the years 2000–05 the relative mass balance ranged from –0.75 to +1.50m a–1w.e., with 2000/01 the only year showing a negative mass balance. In a regionally downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change mean warming scenario, the annual relative mass balance will continue to decrease at 0.02m a–1w.e. through the next century.