Search

To equalize differences in health plan premiums due to differences in risk pools, the German legislature introduced a simple Risk Adjustment Scheme (RAS) based on age, gender and disability status in 1994. In addition, effective 1996, consumers gained the freedom to choose among hundreds of existing health plans, across employers and state-borders. This paper (a) estimates RAS pass-through rates on premiums, financial reserves, and expenditures and assesses the overall RAS impact on market price dispersion. Moreover, it (b) characterizes health plan switchers and investigates their annual and cumulative switching rates over time. Our main findings are based on representative enrollee panel data linked to administrative RAS and health plan data. We show that sickness funds with bad risk pools and high pre-RAS premiums lowered their total premiums by 42 cents per additional euro allocated by the RAS. Consequently, post-RAS, health plan prices converged but not fully. Because switchers are more likely to be white collar, young and healthy, the new consumer choice resulted in more risk segregation and the amount of money redistributed by the RAS increased over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medicare beneficiaries are eligible for health insurance through the public option of traditional Medicare (TM) or may join a private Medicare Advantage (MA) plan. Both are highly subsidized but in different ways. Medicare pays for most of costs directly in TM, and subsidizes MA plans based on a "benchmark" for each beneficiary choosing a private plan. The level of this benchmark is arguably the most important policy decision Medicare makes about the MA program. Many analysts recommend equalizing Medicare's subsidy across the options - referred to in policy circles as a "level playing field." This paper studies the normative question of how to set the level of the benchmark, applying the versatile model developed by Einav and Finkelstein (EF) to Medicare. The EF framework implies unequal subsidies to counteract risk selection across plan types. We also study other reasons to tilt the field: the relative efficiency of MA vs. TM, market power of MA plans, and institutional features of the way Medicare determines subsidies and premiums. After review of the empirical and policy literature, we conclude that in areas where the MA market is competitive, the benchmark should be set below average costs in TM, but in areas characterized by imperfect competition in MA, it should be raised in order to offset output (enrollment) restrictions by plans with market power. We also recommend specific modifications of Medicare rules to make demand for MA more price elastic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is widespread agreement that the US healthcare system wastes as much as 5% of GDP, yet much less agreement on the source of the waste. This paper uses the effectively random assignment of patients to ambulance companies to generate comparisons across similar patients treated at different hospitals. We find that assignment to hospitals whose patients receive large amounts of care over the three months following a health emergency have only modestly better survival outcomes compared to hospitals whose patients receive less. Outcomes are related to different forms of spending. Patients assigned to hospitals with high levels of inpatient spending are more likely to survive to one year, while high levels of outpatient spending result in lower survival. In particular, we discovered that downstream spending at skilled nursing facilities (SNF) is a strong predictor of mortality. Our results highlight SNF admissions as a quality measure to complement the commonly used measure of hospital readmissions and suggest that in the search for waste in the US healthcare, post-acute SNF care is a prime candidate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A primary purpose of health insurance is to protect families from medical expenditure risk. Despite this goal and despite the fact that research has found that Medicaid can crowd out private coverage, little is known about the effect of Medicaid on families' spending patterns. This paper implements a simulated instrumental variables strategy with data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey to estimate the effect of an additional family member becoming eligible for Medicaid on family-level health insurance coverage and spending. The results indicate that an additional family member becoming eligible for Medicaid increases the number of people in the family with Medicaid coverage by about 0.135-0.142 and decreases the likelihood that a family has any medical spending in a quarter by 2.7 percentage points. As previous research often finds with different data sets, I find evidence that Medicaid expansions crowd out some private coverage. Unlike most other data sets, the Consumer Expenditure Survey allows for considering the financial implications of crowd-out. The results indicate that families that transition from private coverage to Medicaid are able to spend significantly less on health insurance expenses, meaning Medicaid expansions can be welfare improving for families even when crowd-out occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an analysis of the role of prices in determining food purchases and nutrition using very detailed transaction-level observations for a large, nationally-representative sample of US consumers over the period 2002-2007. Using product-specific nutritional information, we develop a new method of partitioning the product space into relevant nutritional clusters that define a set of nutritionally-bundled goods, which parsimoniously characterize consumer choice sets. We then estimate a large utility-derived demand system over this joint product-nutrient space that allows us to calculate price and expenditure elasticities. Using our structural demand estimates, we simulate the role of product taxes on soda, sugar-sweetened beverages, packaged meals, and snacks, and nutrient taxes on fat, salt, and sugar. We find that a 20% nutrient tax has a significantly larger impact on nutrition than an equivalent product tax, due to the fact that these are broader-based taxes. However, the costs of these taxes in terms of consumer utility are only about 70 cents per household per day. A sugar tax in particular is a powerful tool to induce healthier nutritive bundles among consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the effect of US public health insurance programs for children on health. Previous work in this area has typically focused on the relationship between current program eligibility and current health. But because health is a stock variable which reflects the cumulative influence of health inputs, it would be preferable to estimate the impact of total program eligibility during childhood on longer-term health outcomes. I provide such estimates by using longitudinal data to construct Medicaid and CHIP eligibility measures that are observed from birth through age 18 and estimating the effect of cumulative program exposure on a variety of health outcomes observed in early adulthood. To account for the endogeneity of program eligibility, I exploit variation in Medicaid and CHIP generosity across states and over time for children of different ages. I find that an additional year of public health insurance eligibility during childhood improves a summary index of adult health by.079 standard deviations, and substantially reduces health limitations, chronic conditions and asthma prevalence while improving self-rated health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policymakers are increasingly interested in reducing healthcare costs and inefficiencies through innovative payment strategies. These strategies may have heterogeneous impacts across geographic areas, potentially reducing or exacerbating geographic variation in healthcare spending. In this paper, we exploit a major payment reform for home health care to examine whether reductions in reimbursement lead to differential changes in treatment intensity and provider costs depending on the level of competition in a market. Using Medicare claims, we find that while providers in more competitive markets had higher average costs in the pre-reform period, these markets experienced larger proportional reductions in treatment intensity and costs after the reform relative to less competitive markets. This led to a convergence in spending across geographic areas. We find that much of the reduction in provider costs is driven by greater exit of "high-cost" providers in more competitive markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how provider and insurer market power affect which markets an insurer chooses to operate in. A 2011 policy change required that certain private insurance plans in Medicare form provider networks de novo; in response, insurers cancelled two-thirds of the affected plans. Using detailed data on pre-policy provider and insurer market structure, I compare markets where insurers built networks to those they exited. Overall, insurers in the most concentrated hospital and physician markets were 9 and 13 percentage points more likely to exit, respectively, than those in the least concentrated markets. Conversely, insurers with more market power were less likely to exit than those with less, and an insurer's market power had the largest effect on exit in concentrated hospital markets. These findings suggest that concentrated provider markets contribute to insurer exit and that insurers with less market power have more difficulty surviving in concentrated provider markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines how estimates of the price elasticity of demand for beer vary with the choice of alcohol price series examined. Our most important finding is that the commonly used ACCRA price data are unlikely to reliably indicate alcohol demand elasticities—estimates obtained from this source vary drastically and unpredictably. As an alternative, researchers often use beer taxes to proxy for alcohol prices. While the estimated beer taxes elasticities are more stable, there are several problems with using taxes, including difficulties in accounting for cross-price effects. We believe that the most useful estimates reported in this paper are obtained using annual Uniform Product Code (UPC) “barcode” scanner data on grocery store alcohol prices. These estimates suggest relatively low demand elasticity, probably around −0.3, with evidence that the elasticities are considerably overstated in models that control for beer but not wine or spirits prices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Medicaid reimburses healthcare providers for services at a lower rate than any other type of insurance coverage. To account for the burden of treating Medicaid patients, providers claim that they must cost-shift by raising the rates of individuals covered by private insurance. Previous investigations of cost-shifting has produced mixed results. In this paper, I exploit a disabled Medicaid expansion where crowd-out was complete to investigate cost-shifting. I find that hospitals reduce the charge rates of the privately insured. Given that Medicaid is expanding in several states under the Affordable Care Act, these results may alleviate cost-shifting concerns of the reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the lifetime effects of exogenous changes in health insurance coverage (e.g. Medicare, PPACA, termination of employer-provided plans) on the dynamic optimal allocation (consumption, leisure, health expenditures), status (health and wealth), and welfare. We solve, simulate, and structurally estimate a parsimonious life cycle model with endogenous exposure to morbidity and mortality risks, and exogenous health insurance. By varying coverage, we identify the marginal effects of insurance when young and/or when old on allocations, statuses, and welfare. Our results highlight positive effects of insurance on health, wealth and welfare, as well as mid-life substitution away from healthy leisure in favor of more health expenses, caused by peaking wages, and accelerating health issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper uses sequential stochastic dominance procedures to compare the joint distribution of health and income across space and time. It is the first application of which we are aware of methods to compare multidimensional distributions of income and health using procedures that are robust to aggregation techniques. The paper’s approach is more general than comparisons of health gradients and does not require the estimation of health equivalent incomes. We illustrate the approach by contrasting Canada and the US using comparable data. Canada dominates the US over the bottom part of the bi-dimensional distribution of health and income, though not generally over the uni-dimensional distributions of health or income. The paper also finds that welfare for both Canadians and Americans has not unambiguously improved during the last decade over the joint distribution of income and health, in spite of the fact that the uni-dimensional distributions of income have clearly improved during that period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper explores the consequences of the expiration of charity care requirements imposed on private hospitals by the Hill–Burton Act. We examine delivery care and the health of newborns using the universe of Florida births from 1989 to 2003 combined with hospital data from the American Hospital Association. We find that charity care requirements were binding on hospitals, but that private hospitals under obligation “cream skimmed” the least risky maternity patients. Conditional on patient characteristics, they provided less intensive maternity services but without compromising patient health. When obligations expired, private hospitals quickly reduced their charity caseloads, shifting maternity patients to public hospitals. The results in this paper suggest, perhaps surprisingly, that requiring private providers to serve the underinsured can be effective. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The 1996 Welfare Reform Act tightened public health-insurance coverage restrictions for non-permanent residents (NPRs) and altered the eligibility of newly permanent residents (PRs). By drawing on data from the SIPP, this paper explores to what extent welfare reform led to a decline in health-insurance coverage for children of NPRs. This paper proposes that the proportion of uninsured children of NPRs with low social economic status (SES) increased by approximately 10 percentage points relative to their PR counterparts. Furthermore, although eligible for Medicaid, citizen children of NPRs of low SES lost approximately 17 percentage points in coverage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In recent years the cost of health insurance has been increasing much faster than wages. In the face of these rising costs, many employers will have to make difficult decisions about whether to cut back health benefits or to compensate workers with lower wages or lower wage growth. In this paper, we ask the question, “Which do workers value more—one additional dollar''s worth of health benefits or one more dollar in their pockets? ” Using a new approach to obtaining estimates of insured workers’ marginal valuation of health benefits this paper estimates how much, on average, employees value the marginal dollar paid by employers for their workers’ health insurance. We find that insured workers value the marginal health premium dollar at significantly less than the marginal wage dollar. However, workers value insurance generosity very highly. The marginal dollar spent on health insurance that adds an additional dollar''s worth of observable dimensions of plan generosity, such as lower deductibles or coverage of additional services, is valued at significantly more than one dollar. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Managed health care plans and providers in the US and elsewhere sell their services to multiple payers. For example, the three largest groups of purchasers from health plans in the US are employers, Medicaid plans, and Medicare, with the first two accounting for over 90% of the total enrollees. In the case of hospitals, Medicare is the largest buyer, but it alone only accounts for 40% of the total payments. While payers have different objectives and use different contracting practices, the plans and providers set some elements of the quality in common for all payers. In this paper, we study the interactions between a public payer, modeled on Medicare, which sets a price and takes any willing provider, a private payer, which limits providers and pays a price on the basis of quality, and a provider/plan, in the presence of shared elements of quality. The provider compromises in response to divergent incentives from payers. The private sector dilutes Medicare payment initiatives, and may, under some circumstances, repair Medicare payment policy mistakes. If Medicare behaves strategically in the presence of private payers, it can free-ride on the private payer and set its prices too low. Our paper has many testable implications, including a new hypothesis for why Medicare has failed to gain acceptance of health plans in the US. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

As a result of public outrage over lower prescription drug prices in Canada, Congress passed legislation that would allow these drugs to be imported into the US. The lower Canadian prices reflect price regulation. Opponents of allowing these imports have argued that the US will import Canadian price controls and that profits of pharmaceutical companies will be hurt. In this paper, a model is developed in which a good sold in the foreign country is subject to a negotiated price which is determined in a Nash bargaining game. When imports back into the home country are allowed, this negotiated price also becomes the domestic price. This causes the home firm to make fewer price concession in the Nash bargaining game. Home firm profits are found to rise under the reimport regime for both of the demand functions analyzed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If public funds are allocated efficiently, then an increase in funding should improve the performance of substance abuse treatment programs. In the data used in this paper, performance (measured as abstinence rates) and expenditures per patient are not positively correlated. One explanation is that funding is endogenous, i.e. programs treating more difficult patients receive more funding. The data comes from all Maine's outpatient drug-free programs that received public funding between 1991 and 1994. After controlling for endogeneity, this paper concludes that the marginal impact of expenditures per patient on abstinence rates is small and statistically insignificantly different from zero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I study tiered cost sharing, an innovative incentive structure designed to steer patients toward low-cost providers using large out-of-pocket price differentials. Using administrative data from New Hampshire, where two large insurers utilize tiered pricing programs, I estimate the effects of tiering on choices and spending for common gastrointestinal endoscopic procedures. I first conduct a difference-in-differences analysis using the rollout of one insurer's tiered option. I then develop and estimate a demand model to explicitly compare the tiered design with other common plans. Both the reduced form and structural models imply that the tiered plans are associated with 4.5%-6.3% less in mean per-episode spending than high-deductible and coinsurance-based plans, and do not affect the likelihood of seeking care. I find evidence that the savings is in part due to a salience or "simple pricing" effect whereby patients respond to tiered out-of-pocket prices but not to traditional deductibles or coinsurance rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many markets, including the new U.S. Marketplaces, health insurance plans are paid by risk-adjusted capitation, sometimes combined with reinsurance and other payment mechanisms. This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the de facto insurer incentives embedded in these complex payment systems. We discuss fit, power and balance, each of which addresses a distinct market failure in health insurance. We implement empirical metrics of fit, power, and balance in a study of Marketplace payment systems. Using data similar to that used to develop the Marketplace risk adjustment scheme, we quantify tradeoffs among the three classes of incentives. We show that an essential tradeoff arises between the goals of limiting costs and limiting cream skimming because risk adjustment, which is aimed at discouraging cream-skimming, weakens cost control incentives in practice. A simple reinsurance system scores better on our measures of fit, power and balance than the risk adjustment scheme in use in the Marketplaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the long-term impact of exposure to Medicaid in early childhood on adult health and economic status. The staggered timing of Medicaid's adoption across the states created meaningful variation in cumulative exposure to Medicaid for birth cohorts that are now in adulthood. Analyses of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics suggest exposure to Medicaid in early childhood (age 0-5) is associated with statistically significant and meaningful improvements in adult health (age 25-54), and this effect is only seen in subgroups targeted by the program. Results for economic outcomes are imprecise and we are unable to come to definitive conclusions. Using separate data we find evidence of two mechanisms that could plausibly link Medicaid's introduction to long-term outcomes: contemporaneous increases in health services utilization for children and reductions in family medical debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the impact of state-level Medicaid reimbursement rates for obstetric care on prenatal care utilization across demographic groups. It also uses these rates as an instrumental variable to assess the importance of prenatal care on birth weight. The analysis is conducted using a unique dataset of Medicaid reimbursement rates and 2001-2010 Vital Statistics Natality data. Conditional on county fixed effects, the study finds a modest, but statistically significant positive relationship between Medicaid reimbursement rates and the number of prenatal visits obtained by pregnant women. Additionally, higher rates are associated with an increase in the probability of obtaining adequate care, as well as a reduction in the incidence of going without any prenatal care. However, the effect of an additional prenatal visit on birth weight is virtually zero for black disadvantaged mothers, while an additional visit yields a substantial increase in birth weight of over 20 g for white disadvantaged mothers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Job loss in the United States is associated with reductions in income and long-term increases in mortality rates. This paper examines the short-run changes in health, health care access, and health care utilization after job loss that lead to these long-term effects. Using a sample with more than 10,000 individual job losses and longitudinal data on a wide variety of health-related outcomes, we show that job loss results in worse self-reported health, activity limitations, and worse mental health, but is not associated with statistically significant increases in a variety of specific chronic conditions. Among the full sample of workers, we see reductions in insurance coverage, but little evidence of reductions in health care utilization after job loss. Among the subset of displaced workers with chronic conditions and those for whom the lost job was their primary source of insurance we do see reductions in doctor's visits and prescription drug usage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of a large-scale paid maternity leave program on birth outcomes in the United States. In 1978, states with Temporary Disability Insurance (TDI) programs were required to start providing wage replacement benefits to pregnant women, substantially increasing access to antenatal and postnatal paid leave for working mothers. Using natality data, I find that TDI paid maternity leave reduces the share of low birth weight births by 3.2 percent, and the estimated treatment-on-the-treated effect is over 10 percent. It also decreases the likelihood of early term birth by 6.6 percent. Paid maternity leave has particularly large impacts on the children of unmarried and black mothers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effectiveness of two major tobacco control policies in discouraging cigarette smoking among young adults. In particular, this paper studies the effects of cigarette prices and restrictions on smoking in public places and private worksites on smoking participation and cigarette consumption among students in U.S. colleges and universities. This is an interesting age group to study since it contains individuals whose smoking practices are likely to be in the process of becoming firmly established. The result indicated that higher cigarette excise taxes, which would raise cigarette prices, would result in substantial reductions in both smoking participation and average daily cigarette consumption among U.S. college students. The finding that young adults are relatively more price sensitive than adults has important implications for the long-run revenue potential of increased cigarette excise taxes. Some reductions on public smoking lead to further reductions in smoking by lowering average cigarette consumption among smokers.

This paper examines the extensive margin of selection into employer-sponsored health insurance (ESHI) using data from the Medical Expenditures Panel Survey 2001-2010 and 2014-2016 and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth'97 in 2010. Controlling for a large set of firm and job characteristics, I find that before the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2014, workers aged 25-40 who declined ESHI and remained privately uninsured had significantly higher health risk than those who enrolled. No correlation between health and insurance take-up is found in the 41-64 age group. These results are partly explained by differences in income and Medicaid crowding out ESHI for high risk workers. The paper sheds light on the characteristics of uninsured workers, their incentives for declining insurance and the interaction between private and public health insurance. The allocation of ESHI remained unchanged after the ACA was introduced due to the provisions' counteracting effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The patient-provider relationship is considered a cornerstone to delivering high-value healthcare. However, in Medicaid managed care settings, disruptions to this relationship are disproportionately common. In this paper, I evaluate the impact of a primary provider's exit from a Medicaid managed care plan on adult beneficiary healthcare utilization and outcomes. Using an event study approach, I estimate a 5% decrease in the number of beneficiaries with primary care visits in the year following the exit, with slightly larger effects in terms of percentage points for patients with chronic conditions. Additionally, I observe a nearly 50% increase in the number of beneficiaries with a chronic condition who are hospitalized following a disruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the economic incentives for medical procedure innovation. Using a proprietary dataset on billing code applications for emerging medical procedures, we highlight two mechanisms that could hinder innovation. First, the administrative hurdle of securing permanent, reimbursable billing codes substantially delays innovation diffusion. We find that Medicare utilization of innovative procedures increases nearly nine-fold after the billing codes are promoted to permanent (reimbursable) from provisional (non-reimbursable). However, only 29 percent of the provisional codes are promoted within the five-year probation period. Second, medical procedures lack intellectual property rights, especially those without patented devices. When appropriability is limited, specialty medical societies lead the applications for billing codes. We indicate that the ad hoc process for securing billing codes for procedure innovations creates uncertainty about both the development process and the allocation and enforceability of property rights. This stands in stark contrast to the more deliberate regulatory oversight for pharmaceutical innovations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medicare Part D plans provide prescription drug coverage to 45 million seniors. The recent past has seen significant consolidation amongst plan providers, notable CVS's 2018 acquisition of Aetna and Cigna's 2018 acquisition of Express Scripts. In this paper, we analyze the effect of consolidation of standalone Part D plan providers on premiums using plausibly exogenous variation in concentration induced by the 2011 merger between CVS and Universal American. We find that the increase in concentration for standalone Medicare Part D plans that resulted from this merger led to higher average premiums, a total of nearly $170 million per year. We find further that, consistent with the assumptions behind standard antitrust practice, the effects of the increase in concentration were heterogeneous: moderately (or more) concentrated markets that saw a meaningful increase in concentration saw significant increases in premiums, while premiums in other markets did not change significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Medicare program, which provides insurance coverage to the elderly in the United States, does not protect them fully against high out-of-pocket costs. For this reason private supplementary insurance, named Medigap, has been available to cover Medicare gaps. This paper studies how Medigap affects the utilization of inpatient care, separating the incentive and selection effects of supplementary insurance. For this purpose, we use two alternative estimation methods: a standard recursive bivariate probit and a discrete multivariate finite mixture model. We find that estimated incentive effects are modest and quite similar across models. There seems to be very significant selection, with the presence of both adversely and advantageously selected individuals, stemming from the multidimensional nature of residual heterogeneity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper utilizes longitudinal data on varicella (chickenpox) immunizations in order to estimate the causal effects of state-level school-entry and daycare-entry immunization mandates within the United States. We find significant causal effects of mandates upon vaccination rates among preschool children aged 19–35 months; these effects appear in the year of mandate adoption, peak two years after adoption, and show a minimal difference from the aggregate trend about six years after adoption. For a mandate enacted in 2000, the model and estimates imply that roughly 20% of the short-run increase in state-level immunization rates was caused by the mandate introduction. We find no evidence of differential effects for different socioeconomic groups. Combined with previous cost–benefit analyses of the varicella vaccine, the estimates suggest that state-level mandates have been effective from an economic standpoint. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the introduction of the Medicaid program on labor supply decisions among single women in the late 1960s and early 1970s. I use a differences-in-differences-in-differences methodology to estimate the effect of Medicaid on eligible women''s labor force participation, using variation in the timing of Medicaid implementation across states and in eligibility across demographic groups. Using March supplements to the CPS from 1963 to 1975, I find no evidence that women who were eligible for Medicaid decreased their labor supply relative to ineligible women, in contrast to clear theoretical predictions of a negative supply response. Positive point estimates suggest that health benefits from health insurance coverage may have contributed to relative increases in labor supply. These results add to an emerging consensus that public health insurance programs for low-income parents and children may be able to improve access to care without substantial indirect costs from labor supply distortions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The United States aspires to use information from comparative effectiveness research (CER) to reduce waste and contain costs without instituting a formal rationing mechanism or compromising patient or physician autonomy with regard to treatment choices. With such ambitious goals, traditional combinations of research designs and analytical methods used in CER may lead to disappointing results. In this paper, I study how alternate regimes of comparative effectiveness information help shape the marginal benefits (demand) curve in the population and how such perceived demand curves impact decision-making at the individual patient level and welfare at the societal level. I highlight the need to individualize comparative effectiveness research in order to generate the true (normative) demand curve for treatments. I discuss methodological principles that guide research designs for such studies. Using an example of the comparative effect of substance abuse treatments on crime, I use novel econometric methods to salvage individualized information from an existing dataset. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides a signaling-game theoretical foundation for empirically testing the effects of quality report cards in the U.S. health care industry. It shows that, when health care providers face an identical distribution of patient illness severities, the multidimensional measures in the existing report cards render them a mechanism that reveals the providers’ qualities without causing them to select patients. However, non-identical patient type distributions between providers, attributed to the referring physician, may force the high-quality provider to shun patients in order to signal himself. Despite this imperfection, the existing report cards cause the minimum provider selection compared with alternative report mechanisms. Since the report cards not only may cause providers to select patients, but also cause patients to select providers, the single difference-in-differences estimates used in previous studies are not sufficient to indicate providers’ selection behavior. In an updated empirical framework, a treatment effect shall be estimated once every period. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impacts of unpaid maternity leave provisions of the 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) on children''s birth and infant health outcomes in the United States. My identification strategy uses variation in pre-FMLA maternity leave policies across states and variation in which firms are covered by FMLA provisions. Using Vital Statistics data and difference-in-difference-in-difference methodology, I find that maternity leave led to small increases in birth weight, decreases in the likelihood of a premature birth, and substantial decreases in infant mortality for children of college-educated and married mothers, who were most able to take advantage of unpaid leave. My results are robust to the inclusion of numerous controls for maternal, child, and county characteristics, state, year, and month fixed effects, and state-year interactions, as well as across several different specifications. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of job loss due to business closings on body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption. We suggest that the ambiguous findings in the extant literature may be due in part to unobserved heterogeneity in response and in part due to an overly broad measure of job loss that is partially endogenous (e.g., layoffs). We improve upon this literature using: exogenously determined business closings, a sophisticated estimation approach (finite mixture models) to deal with complex heterogeneity, and national, longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study. For both alcohol consumption and BMI, we find evidence that individuals who are more likely to respond to job loss by increasing unhealthy behaviors are already in the problematic range for these behaviors before losing their jobs. These results suggest the health effects of job loss could be concentrated among “at risk” individuals and could lead to negative outcomes for the individuals, their families, and society at large. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we examine the effect of changes in population density—urban sprawl—between 1970 and 2000 on BMI and obesity of residents in metropolitan areas in the U.S. We address the possible endogeneity of population density by using a two-step instrumental variables approach. We exploit the plausibly exogenous variation in population density caused by the expansion of the U.S. Interstate Highway System, which largely followed the original 1947 plan for the Interstate Highway System. We find a negative association between population density and obesity, and estimates are robust across a wide range of specifications. Estimates indicate that if the average metropolitan area had not experienced the decline in the proportion of population living in dense areas over the last 30 years, the rate of obesity would have been reduced by approximately 13%. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Physicians play a major role in determining the cost and quality of healthcare, yet estimates of these effects can be confounded by patient sorting. This paper considers a natural experiment where nearly 30,000 patients were randomly assigned to clinical teams from one of two academic institutions. One institution is among the top medical schools in the U.S., while the other institution is ranked lower in the distribution. Patients treated by the two programs have similar observable characteristics and have access to a single set of facilities and ancillary staff. Those treated by physicians from the higher ranked institution have 10–25% less expensive stays than patients assigned to the lower ranked institution. Health outcomes are not related to the physician team assignment. Cost differences are most pronounced for serious conditions, and they largely stem from diagnostic-testing rates: the lower ranked program tends to order more tests and takes longer to order them. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Childhood asthma is a major chronic condition affecting millions of children in this country, yet little is known about its potential long term consequences. In this paper, we estimate the relationship between childhood asthma and several outcomes as a young adult. To overcome many of the methodological issues plaguing earlier research on this topic, we estimate sibling fixed effect models that correct for measurement error using parental reports of asthma status. In our preferred specification, we find substantial long term impacts of childhood asthma on general health status, obesity, and missed work and school days as a young adult. Broadly, our findings contribute to the growing literature in social sciences on the impacts of early life health conditions on later life health and social outcomes and suggest early treatment of asthma may have long-run benefits on young adult health and socioeconomic outcomes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a flexible “two-part” random effects model () for correlated medical cost data. Typically, medical cost data are right-skewed, involve a substantial proportion of zero values, and may exhibit heteroscedasticity. In many cases, such data are also obtained in hierarchical form, e.g., on patients served by the same physician. The proposed model specification therefore consists of two generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), linked together by correlated random effects. Respectively, and conditionally on the random effects and covariates, we model the odds of cost being positive (Part I) using a GLMM with a logistic link and the mean cost (Part II) given that costs were actually incurred using a generalized gamma regression model with random effects and a scale parameter that is allowed to depend on covariates (cf., ). The class of generalized gamma distributions is very flexible and includes the lognormal, gamma, inverse gamma and Weibull distributions as special cases. We demonstrate how to carry out estimation using the Gaussian quadrature techniques conveniently implemented in SAS Proc NLMIXED. The proposed model is used to analyze pharmacy cost data on 56,245 adult patients clustered within 239 physicians in a mid-western U.S. managed care organization. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between health aid and infant mortality, using data from 118 countries between 1973 and 2004. Health aid has a beneficial and statistically significant effect on infant mortality: doubling per capita health aid is associated with a 2 percent reduction in the infant mortality rate. For the average country, this implies that increasing per capita health aid by US$1.60 per year is associated with 1.5 fewer infant deaths per thousand births. The estimated effect is small, relative to the 2015 target envisioned by the Millennium Development Goals. It implies that achieving the MDG target through additional health aid alone would require a roughly 15-fold increase in current levels of aid. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The enactment of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) in 1990 triggered a substantial academic debate about its consequences on employment rates of disabled people. In contrast, the employment provision of the 1996 Disability Discrimination Act (DDA) in Britain has received little attention. Exploiting both pooled and longitudinal data, this paper provides robust evidence that, similar to the ADA in the USA, the DDA has had no impact on the employment rate of disabled people or possibly worsened it. Possible reasons for this are higher uncertainty around litigation costs, low levels of general awareness about the Act among disabled people and employers, and a lack of financial support. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Survey-based health research is in a boom phase following an increased amount of health spending in OECD countries and the interest in ageing. A general characteristic of survey-based health research is its diversity. Different studies are based on different health questions in different datasets; they use different statistical techniques; they differ in whether they approach health from an ordinal or cardinal perspective; and they differ in whether they measure short-term or long-term effects. The question in this paper is simple: do these differences matter for the findings? We investigate the effects of life-style choices (drinking, smoking, exercise) and income on six measures of health in the US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) between 1992 and 2002: (1) self-assessed general health status, (2) problems with undertaking daily tasks and chores, (3) mental health indicators, (4) BMI, (5) the presence of serious long-term health conditions, and (6) mortality. We compare ordinal models with cardinal models; we compare models with fixed effects to models without fixed-effects; and we compare short-term effects to long-term effects. We find considerable variation in the impact of different determinants on our chosen health outcome measures; we find that it matters whether ordinality or cardinality is assumed; we find substantial differences between estimates that account for fixed effects versus those that do not; and we find that short-run and long-run effects differ greatly. All this implies that health is an even more complicated notion than hitherto thought, defying generalizations from one measure to the others or one methodology to another. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Previous work has shown that the income gradient in child health for the United States becomes steeper with age. This paper shows a similar pattern using the 1996–2005 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys (MEPS). A framework is also presented to evaluate cumulative and contemporaneous income effects through the use of baseline health controls. The analysis shows that poor health is more persistent in older children, and that the income gradient is substantially flattened over age groups when controlling for baseline health. However, even when controlling for baseline health, there remains a stronger effect from income on the health of adolescents. These results may reflect a cumulative effect from income that explains much of the strengthening association between income and health before adolescence, with a remaining stronger contemporaneous association in that age group. The analysis is unable to identify a major role of chronic conditions or injuries in these relationships. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of expanding public health insurance eligibility for older children. Using data from the National Health Interview Surveys from 1986 to 2005, we first show that although income continues to be an important predictor of children''s health status, the importance of income for predicting health has fallen for children 9–17 in recent years. We then investigate the extent to which the dramatic expansions in public health insurance coverage for these children in the past decade are responsible for the decline in the importance of income. We find that while eligibility for public health insurance unambiguously improves current utilization of preventive care, it has little effect on current health status. However, we find some evidence that Medicaid eligibility in early childhood has positive effects on future health. This may indicate that adequate medical care early on puts children on a better health trajectory, resulting in better health as they grow. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper offers evidence that welfare time limits contributed to a deterioration of infant health. We use the fact that the dates at which TANF recipients were first subject to timing out varied by state. We show that by 2000 there was a marked difference in TANF duration spells depending on whether the state employed the 60-month Federally imposed time limit, or a shorter limit, differences that were not present under AFDC. There were significant increases in infant mortality when time limits became binding in a state. These increases occurred primarily among mothers who could have plausibly timed-out of TANF: poorly educated and unmarried women with at least one previous live-birth. There is some evidence that the population of mothers affected by time limits were less likely to seek prenatal care in the first trimester, suggesting a possible role for reduced medical care in explaining the deterioration in infant health. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of Medicare HMO penetration on the medical care expenditures incurred by Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) enrollees. We find that increasing penetration leads to reduced spending on FFS beneficiaries. In particular, our estimates suggest that the increase in HMO penetration during our study period led to approximately a 7% decline in spending per FFS beneficiary. Similar models for various measures of health care utilization find penetration-induced reductions consistent with our spending estimates. Finally, we present evidence that suggests our estimated spending reductions are driven by beneficiaries who have at least one chronic condition. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper develops an empirical strategy to estimate whether subsidies to private medical insurance are self-financing in countries where public and private insurance coexist and the latter covers the same treatments as the former. We construct a simulation routine based on a micro-econometric discrete choice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changes on the utilization of outpatient and inpatient health care services. As an application, we estimate the budgetary effects of scrapping a subsidy from the purchase of individual private policies, using micro-data from Catalonia. Our results suggest that the subsidy is not self-financing. This result is driven by the fact that private medical insurance holders make concurrent use of public and private services, and by the price inelasticity of the demand for private policies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Global ratings, such as those based on consumer satisfaction, are a commonly used form of report on the performance of health plans and providers. A simple averaging of the global rating by plan members leads to a problem: it gives a plan greater incentives to improve services used by low-cost members than services used by high-cost members. This paper presents a formal model of consumer formation of global ratings and the incentives these rating convey to plans. We use this model to characterize weights on consumer respondents to correct the incentive problem. We implement our proposed solution using data from the Consumer Assessments of Health Care Providers and Systems (CAHPS) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS). Our correction is low-cost, easily implemented on an on-going basis, and insensitive to assumptions about why health plans care about quality ratings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Light trucks have doubled their share of the vehicle fleet from 1980 to 2004. This paper examines the effects of this increase on traffic safety, combining estimates from a state-level panel data set with an accident-level micro-data set. The results suggest that a one-percentage point increase in light truck share raises annual traffic fatalities by 0.34%, or 143 deaths per year. Of this increase, approximately one-fifth accrue to the light trucks' own occupants, and the remaining four-fifths accrue to the occupants of other vehicles and pedestrians. Using standard value of life figures, the implied Pigovian tax is approximately 3850 dollars per light truck sold. Overall, light trucks pose a significant hazard to other users of the highway system but on average provide no additional protection to their own occupants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]