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Erratum to ‘‘A method for establishing allocation equity among patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma on a common liver transplant waiting list’’ [J Hepatol 2013;60:290–297] Alessandro Vitale, Michael L. Volk, Tullia Maria De Feo, Patrizia Burra1,⇑, Anna Chiara Frigo, Rafael Ramirez Morales, Luciano De Carlis, Luca Belli, Michele Colledan, Stefano Fagiuoli, Giorgio Rossi, Enzo Andorno, Umberto Baccarani, Enrico Regalia, Marco Vivarelli, Matteo Donataccio, Umberto Cillo, on behalf of the Liver Transplantation North Italy Transplant program (NITp) working group

Background & Aims Although the discriminative ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is generally considered acceptable, its calibration is still unclear. In a validation study, we assessed the discriminative performance and calibration of 3 versions of the model: original MELD-TIPS, used to predict survival after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS); classic MELD-Mayo; and MELD-UNOS, used by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). We also explored recalibrating and updating the model. Methods In total, 776 patients who underwent elective TIPS (TIPS cohort) and 445 unselected patients (non-TIPS cohort) were included. Three, 6 and 12-month mortality predictions were calculated by the 3 MELD versions: discrimination was assessed by c-statistics and calibration by comparing deciles of predicted and observed risks. Cox and Fine and Grey models were used for recalibration and prognostic analyses. Results In the TIPS/non-TIPS cohorts, the etiology of liver disease was viral in 402/188, alcoholic in 185/130, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in 65/33; mean follow-up±SD was 25±9/19±21 months; and the number of deaths at 3-6-12 months was 57-102-142/31-47-99, respectively. C-statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.72 in TIPS and 0.66 to 0.76 in non-TIPS cohorts across prediction times and scores. A post hoc analysis revealed worse c-statistics in non-viral cirrhosis with more pronounced and significant worsening in the non-TIPS cohort. Calibration was acceptable with MELD-TIPS but largely unsatisfactory with MELD-Mayo and -UNOS whose performance improved much after recalibration. A prognostic analysis showed that age, albumin, and TIPS indication might be used to update the MELD. Conclusions In this validation study, the performance of the MELD score was largely unsatisfactory, particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. MELD recalibration and candidate variables for an update to the MELD score are proposed. Lay summary While the discriminative performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score is credited to be fair to good, its calibration, the correspondence of observed to predicted mortality, is still unsettled. We found that application of 3 different versions of the MELD in 2 independent cirrhosis cohorts yielded largely imprecise mortality predictions particularly in non-viral cirrhosis. Thus, we propose a recalibration and suggest candidate variables for an update to the model.

Background and aims Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a major worldwide threat for healthy individuals as well as for patients with comorbidities, but its impact on patients with cirrhosis is currently unknown. This study aimed at evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the clinical outcome of these patients. Methods In this multicenter retrospective study, cirrhotic patients with confirmed Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were enrolled between 1st and 31th March 2020. Clinical and biochemical data at COVID-19 and at the last outpatient visit were obtained through review of medical records. Results Fifty cirrhotic patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled (age 67 years, 70% men, 38% virus-related, 52% previously compensated cirrhosis). At diagnosis, 64% of patients presented fever, 42% shortness of breath/polypnea, 22% encephalopathy, 96% needed hospitalization or prolonged an ongoing one. Respiratory-support was necessary in 71%, 52% received antivirals, 80% heparin. Serum albumin significantly decreased, while bilirubin, creatinine and prothrombin time significantly increased at COVID-19 diagnosis compared to last available data. The proportion of patients with MELD≥15 increased from 13% to 26% (p=0.037), acute-on-chronic liver failure and and de novo acute liver injury occurred in 14 (28%) and 10 patients, respectively. Seventeen patients died after a median of 10 (4-13) days from COVID-19 diagnosis, with a 30-day-mortality rate of 34%. Severity of lung and liver (according to CLIF-C, CLIF-OF and MELD scores) diseases independently predicted mortality. Mortality was significantly higher in hospitalized cirrhotics with COVID-19 than in those hospitalized for bacterial infections. Conclusion COVID-19 is associated with liver function deterioration and elevated mortality in cirrhotic patients., Graphical abstract, Highlights − Fifty cirrhotic patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were studied: 64% presented with fever, 42% shortness of breath/polypnea, 22% encephalopathy; respiratory-support was necessary in 71%. − The 30-day mortality was 34% (95% CI 23-49), higher in those patients with moderate/severe respiratory failure and in those who had a more deteriorated liver function, as indicated by the increased MELD and CLIF-OF scores at COVID-19 diagnosis. − The 30-days mortality rate was higher in cirrhotics with COVID-19 than in cirrhotics with bacterial infection and in COVID-19 patients without cirrhosis − No major adverse events related to the thromboprophylaxis with heparin given to 80% of patients and treatments used to tackle the coronavirus infection.

Background/Aims: Liver transplantation for end-stage liver cirrhosis provides a useful model to investigate the pathogenetic role of hepatotropic viral agents. Recently, a new member of the Flaviviridae family, provisionally named HGV/GBV-C virus, has been associated with acute and chronic non A–E hepatitis. We studied 136 patients with cirrhosis consecutively transplanted at out institution for evidence of hepatitis G virus infection and correlation with the patients' clinical course. MEthods: All patients survived for at least 6 months after transplantation (median follow-up 44 months) and underwent routine liver biopsies. Hepatitis G virus infection was studied using both direct viral RNA identification by RT-PCR and indirect detection of antibodies to the E2 glycoprotein. Results: There was high frequency of the hepatitis G virus among patients undergoing liver transplantation, with HGV RNA and anti-E2 prevalence rates of 18.4% and 26.5%, respectively. HGV RNA prevalences significantly increased after transplantation (47.8%), with 47.3% rate of new infections in susceptible subjects. Anti-E2 antibodies were significantly more prevalent among patients transplanted for HCV-related cirrhosis and represented a strong protective factor against hepatitis G virus reinfection or recurrent infection. No correlation was found between HGV RNA or anti-E2 prevalences and survival after transplantation or rates of recurrent liver damage. Conclusions: All available evidence suggests that, although liver transplant patients are heavily exposed to hepatitis G virus both before and after transplantation, hepatitis G virus does not induce liver disease in this setting. Most infections appear to be self-limited and induce a protective immunity which is marked by the presence of anti-E2 antibodies.

Background and Aims: Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is an enigmatic disease with scarce therapeutic options, potentially evolving to severe and life-threatening complications, including malignancies like cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) or colon cancer. The clinical management of PSC remains challenging and may benefit from identification of outcome indicators to assess the quality of care. This study aims to: (A) identify Outcome Indicators (OIs) for PSC, and (B) validate OIs in a clinical context with a preliminary interim analysis. Methods: (A) A panel of experts generated a list of OIs using a modified version of the Delphi method. (B) OIs with the highest RAND/UCLA score were tested in an ongoing multicentric and prospective study (Value-based Medicine in Hepatology, VBMH). Results: Five OIs were identified on the basis of the highest rating values and disagreement indexes next to 0. They include: annual rate of acute cholangitis episodes (OI#1); mortality rate for patients not yet listed for liver transplantation (OI#2); rate of quality of life improvement, measured by EQ-VAS (a visual assessment scale ranging from 0 to 100 where the patient points out his present-day health status) and EQ-5D (assessment of 5 domains that measure daily performance according to 3 levels of severity) (OI#3); number of patients died for CCA and CRC (OI#4); incidence and/or worsening of osteoporosis, expressed as T-score differential over a 2-year interval (OI#5). In the validation study, 63 consecutive patients with PSC enrolled in 3 tertiary liver centres in Northern Italy were evaluated for a 24-month follow-up period. For each OI, the following values were reported: OI#1: cumulative incidence of 5.2%, resulting in 0.029 cholangitis/patient; OI#2, OI#4: no patients died without being listed for transplantation or because of cancer during study time; OI#3: 38.9% and 19.4% of patients showed an improvement in EQ-VAS and EQ-5D parameters, respectively; OI#5: 3% of patients developed or worsened osteoporosis. Conclusions: Five OIs for PSC were identified on a highly shared consensus. Albeit the study population is small (as in the case of rare diseases) and the follow-up time is short as compared to the long natural history of the disease, these OIs have proven to be easy to collect and to work appropriately. Therefore, they are suitable to be extended to specialized centres involved in PSC management to further validate their clinical usefulness.