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Background & Aims: The ANSWER study reported that long-term albumin administration in patients with cirrhosis and uncomplicated ascites improves survival. During treatment, serum albumin increased within a month and remained stable thereafter. In this post hoc analysis, we aimed to determine whether on-treatment serum albumin levels could guide therapy., Methods: Logistic regression was used to assess the association between baseline serum albumin and mortality, as well as to determine on-treatment factors associated with mortality and to predict the achievement of a given on-treatment serum albumin level. Survival was assessed by Kaplan-Meier estimates and second-order polynomial regression. Patients whose on-treatment serum albumin remained below normal were compared with a subset of patients from the control arm matched by principal score., Results: Baseline serum albumin was closely associated with 18-month mortality in untreated patients; albumin treatment almost effaced this relationship. On-treatment serum albumin and MELD-Na at month 1 were the sole independent variables associated with mortality. Second-order polynomial regression revealed that survival improved in parallel with increased 1-month on-treatment serum albumin. Kaplan-Meier estimations showed that any value of 1-month on-treatment serum albumin (0.1 g/dl intervals) in the range 2.5-4.5 g/dl discriminated patient survival. In the normal range of serum albumin, the best discriminant value was 4.0 g/dl. Compared to untreated patients, survival even improved in patients whose on-treatment serum albumin remained below normal., Conclusion: Baseline serum albumin per se should not guide the decision to start albumin therapy. Conversely, 1-month on-treatment serum albumin levels are strongly associated with outcomes and could guide the use of albumin - 4.0 g/dl being the target threshold. However, even patients whose serum albumin remains below normal benefit from long-term albumin administration., Lay Summary: The ANSWER study has shown that long-term albumin administration improves survival and prevents the occurrence of major complications in patients with cirrhosis and ascites. This study shows that the achievement of these beneficial effects is related to a significant increase in serum albumin concentration. Even though the best results follow the achievement of a serum albumin concentration of 4 g/dl, a survival benefit is also achieved in patients who fail to normalise serum albumin., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest PC is part of the speakers' bureau for Grifols SA, Octapharma AG, Baxalta, and Kedrion Biopharma, is consultant for Kedrion Biopharma, is on the advisory board for Grifols SA, and has a research grant from Octapharma AG. MT is part of the speakers' bureau for Grifols SA and Octapharma AG. GZ is part of the speakers' bureau for Octapharma. OR is part of speakers' bureau for Baxalta. PA is part of the speakers' bureau for Baxalta and Kedrion Biopharma. PT is part of the speakers' bureau for Grifols and Kedrion Biopharma. MBa is part of the speakers' bureau Octapharma AG. MBe is part of the speakers' bureau for Grifols SA, Octapharma AG, Baxalta, CLS Behring GmbH, and PPTA, and is a consultant for CLS Behring GmbH, Grifols SA and Baxalta. All other authors have no competing interests. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details., (Copyright © 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Sorafenib is associated with multiple adverse events (AEs), potentially causing its permanent interruption. It is unknown how physicians' experience has impacted on the management of these AEs and consequently on clinical outcomes. We aimed to assess whether AE management changed over time and if these modifications impacted on treatment duration and overall survival (OS)., Methods: We analysed the prospectively collected data of 338 consecutive patients who started sorafenib between January 2008 and December 2017 in 3 tertiary care centres in Italy. Patients were divided according to the starting date: Group A (2008-2012; n = 154), and Group B (2013-2017, n = 184). Baseline and follow-up data were compared. In the OS analysis, patients who received second-line treatments were censored when starting the new therapy., Results: Baseline characteristics, AEs, and radiological response were consistent across groups. Patients in Group B received a lower median daily dose (425 vs. 568 mg/day, p <0.001) due to more frequent dose modifications. However, treatment duration was longer (5.8 vs. 4.1 months, p = 0.021) with a trend toward a higher cumulative dose in Group B. Notably, the OS was also higher (12.0 vs. 11.0 months, p = 0.003) with a sharp increase in the 2-year survival rate (28.1 vs. 18.4%, p = 0.003) in Group B. Multivariate time-dependent Cox regression analysis confirmed later period of treatment (2013-2017) as an independent predictor of survival (HR 0.728; 95%CI 0.581-0.937; p = 0.013). Unconsidered confounders were unlikely to affect these results at the sensitivity analysis., Conclusions: Experience in the management of sorafenib-related AEs prolongs treatment duration and survival. This factor should be considered in the design of future randomised clinical trials including a sorafenib treatment arm, as an underestimate of sample size may derive., Lay Summary: Sorafenib has been the standard frontline systemic treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma for over a decade. Its tolerability is limited by different adverse events, which might lead to its permanent discontinuation in a sizeable proportion of patients. After a careful analysis of potential confounders, we demonstrated that the physicians' experience in managing adverse events related to sorafenib has improved over time, with longer treatment periods and less permanent discontinuation for toxicities. More importantly, these improvements also translated into longer patient survival. Our results have relevant repercussions in clinical practice and in the design of future clinical trials., (Copyright © 2019 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Assessment of long-term outcome is required in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with cirrhosis, who have been successfully treated for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, problems arise due to the lack of models accounting for early changes during follow-up. The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of early events (HCC recurrence or hepatic decompensation within 12months of complete radiological response) on 5-year overall survival (OS) in a large cohort of patients with HCV and cirrhosis, successfully treated HCC., Methods: A total of 328 consecutive Caucasian patients with HCV-related cirrhosis and BCLC stage 0/A HCC who had complete radiological response after curative resection or thermal ablation were prospectively recruited to this study. Primary endpoint of the study was 5-year OS. Independent baseline and time-dependent predictors of 5-year OS were identified by Cox model., Results: The observed 5-year survival rate was 44%. The observed HCC early recurrence and early hepatic decompensation rate were 21% and 10%, respectively. Early hepatic decompensation (Hazard Ratio [HR] 7.52; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.23-13.48) and HCC early recurrence as time-dependent covariates (HR 2.50; 95%CI: 1.23-5.05), presence of esophageal varices at baseline (HR 1.66; 95% CI: 1.02-2.70) and age (HR 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02-1.07) were significantly associated with the 5-year OS., Conclusion: Survival in HCV-infected patients with cirrhosis and successfully treated HCC is influenced by early hepatic decompensation. Our study indirectly suggests that direct-acting antiviral agents could improve OS of HCC patients through long-term preservation of liver function, resulting in a lower cirrhosis-related mortality and a greater change of receiving curative treatments., Lay Summary: Survival in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients with cirrhosis and successfully treated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is mainly influenced by early hepatic decompensation. HCV eradication after treatment with new direct-acting antiviral agents could improve overall survival of HCC patients through long-term preservation of liver function., (Copyright © 2017 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a serious complication of HCV-related cirrhosis. New direct-acting antivirals (DAA) cure HCV infection in over 90% of patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the early occurrence and recurrence of HCC in cirrhotic patients treated with DAA., Methods: We analysed 344 consecutive cirrhotic patients, without HCC, who were treated with DAA, and followed for 24weeks. Fifty-nine patients had previous HCC., Results: DAA therapy induced sustained virological response in 91% of patients. During 24-week follow-up, HCC was detected in 26 patients (7.6%, 95% CI: 4.99-10.84): 17 of 59 patients (28.81%, 95% CI: 17.76-42.07) with previous HCC and 9 of 285 patients (3.16%, 95% CI: 1.45-5.90) without previous HCC. Child-Pugh Class B, more severe liver fibrosis, lower platelet count, and previous HCC were significantly associated with HCC development, at univariate analysis. At multivariate analysis, Child-Pugh class (p=0.03, OR: 4.18, 95% CI: 1.17-14.8) and history of HCC (p<0.0001, OR: 12.0, 95% CI: 4.02-35.74) resulted independently associated with HCC development. Among the 59 patients with previous HCC, younger age and more severe liver fibrosis were significantly associated with HCC recurrence, both at univariate and at multivariate analysis., Conclusions: In patients with HCV-related cirrhosis, DAA-induced resolution of HCV infection does not seem to reduce occurrence of HCC, and patients previously treated for HCC have still a high risk of tumour recurrence, in the short term. For these reasons, all cirrhotic patients should be closely monitored and followed during and after antiviral therapy., Lay Summary: New direct-acting antivirals are able to eradicate HCV infection in over 90% of patients with advanced liver disease. Unfortunately, the occurrence of liver cancer is not reduced in effectively treated cirrhotic patients. In addition, patients previously treated for HCC have still a high risk of tumour recurrence in the short term, despite DAA treatment., (Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: The role of hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages is controversial. We aimed at measuring the survival benefit of resection vs. non-surgical-therapies in each BCLC stage., Methods: Using the ITA.LI.CA database, we identified 2090 BCLC A, B, and C HCC patients observed between 2000 and 2012: 550 underwent resection, 1046 loco-regional therapy (LRT), and 494 best supportive care (BSC). A multivariate log-logistic model was chosen to predict median survival (MS) after resection vs. MS after LRT or BSC. The results were expressed as net survival benefit of resection: (MS resection-MS LRT)/MS BSC., Results: After stratifying for BCLC stage, the median net survival benefit of resection over LRT was: BCLC 0=62% (40%, 82%), A=45% (13%, 65%), B=46% (9%, 76%), C=-16% (-55%, 33%). Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score>9, Child B class, and performance status (PST)=2 were the main risk factors for liver resection. 1181 Child A patients (57%) with MELD⩽9 and PST<2 had always a large positive net survival benefit of resection over LRT, independently of BCLC stage: BCLC 0=64% (44%, 85%), A=59% (45%, 74%), B=71% (52%, 90%), C=56% (36%, 78%). Among the 909 (43%) patients with at least one risk factor (MELD>9 or PST=2 or Child B class), resection did not prove any survival benefit over LRT., Conclusions: Resection could result in survival benefit over LRT for HCC patients regardless of their BCLC stage, provided that liver dysfunction (Child B or MELD>9) and PST>1 are absent., (Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background & Aims: Lead-time is the time by which diagnosis is anticipated by screening/surveillance with respect to the symptomatic detection of a disease. Any screening program, including surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is subject to lead-time bias. Data regarding lead-time for HCC are lacking. Aims of the present study were to calculate lead-time and to assess its impact on the benefit obtainable from the surveillance of cirrhotic patients., Methods: One-thousand three-hundred and eighty Child-Pugh class A/B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, in whom HCC was detected during semiannual surveillance (n = 850), annual surveillance (n = 234) or when patients came when symptomatic (n = 296), were selected. Lead-time was estimated by means of appropriate formulas and Monte Carlo simulation, including 1000 patients for each arm., Results: The 5-year overall survival after HCC diagnosis was 32.7% in semiannually surveilled patients, 25.2% in annually surveilled patients, and 12.2% in symptomatic patients (p<0.001). In a 10-year follow-up perspective, the median lead-time calculated for all surveilled patients was 6.5 months (7.2 for semiannual and 4.1 for annual surveillance). Lead-time bias accounted for most of the surveillance benefit until the third year of follow-up after HCC diagnosis. However, even after lead-time adjustment, semiannual surveillance maintained a survival benefit over symptomatic diagnosis (number of patients needed to screen = 13), as did annual surveillance (18 patients)., Conclusions: Lead-time bias is the main determinant of the short-term benefit provided by surveillance for HCC, but this benefit becomes factual in a long-term perspective, confirming the clinical utility of an anticipated diagnosis of HCC., (Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)