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• The mean groundwater table depth in China dropped by approximately 0.2 m (P < 0.01) during 1979–2018. • The Noah-MP land model forced with reanalysis climate data can reasonably capture terrestrial water and radiation processes across China. • Incorporating the groundwater lateral flow process enhances the seasonality of modeled terrestrial water and radiation processes on a regional scale. Faced with intensified climate change and ever-increasing water demand, the groundwater table depth is vital to sustaining terrestrial environments in a country such as China; however, on a regional scale, insufficient research has been conducted on its variability thus far. Using a land model forced with reanalysis climate data, this paper investigates groundwater table depth changes across China for the 1979–2018 period. The results show a significant overall reduction in the groundwater table depth in China during the past 40 years without explicit consideration of direct human influence. There is an approximately 0.2 m decrease on average, but it is approximately 0.5 m in southern China and 0.8 m to the north of 35°N despite a 1.2 m rise in part of this region due to an increasingly wet climate and a topographic water convergence. The findings provide a first-order pattern of historical groundwater table responses to climate change, highlighting inherent links among subsurface-surface-atmosphere water cycles and worsened terrestrial water availability in China. A model evaluation compared with in situ observations has demonstrated the model's ability to realistically portray terrestrial water and energy balances on regional scales, as well as the enhancement of their seasonality with incorporated lateral groundwater flow processes. This ability gives us reasonable confidence in the simulated trends and spatial variability. Nonetheless, the mean groundwater table still shows large biases relative to observations, and the problems of human influence, two-way interactions between groundwater and surface water, and local topographical complexity have yet to be properly addressed in the present study and deserve further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• DRASTIC-AgLU-CC is applied to examine future groundwater contamination risk. • Climate and land use factors are treated as dynamic model inputs. • The influence of land use scheme complexity on model output is assessed. • Detailed agricultural land use representation may improve model predictions. • Predicted contamination risk varies depending on land use representation. Rural regions, which are commonly reliant on groundwater for water supply, often face groundwater quality challenges related to agricultural activity. To sustainably manage and protect groundwater resources, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of inherent groundwater vulnerability and the contamination risk posed by pollutant loading. Index-based methods typically assess groundwater contamination risk in a static manner and commonly represent agricultural land as a single land use class despite the complexity of land management practices that may be present. This paper illustrates modification of the conventional DRASTIC-LU methodology, through a newly developed DRASTIC-AgLU-CC approach, to better understand how groundwater contamination risk may change by mid-century while simultaneously examining the potential influence of land use scheme complexity on model performance and prediction. Recharge, depth to water table, and land use are treated as dynamic factors through the integration of downscaled global climate model data, empirically estimated water table fluctuation and recharge, and trend-based land change modelling. The Upper Parkhill watershed in southwestern Ontario, Canada serves as a case study for method application. Study results indicate that more detailed agricultural land use representation, specifically the inclusion of crop rotation and tile drainage data, has the potential to improve model predictive ability; furthermore, predicted future changes in groundwater contamination risk may vary depending on the manner in which land use is represented. Within the Upper Parkhill watershed, mid-century land use and climate conditions may increase groundwater contamination risk, although minimal change is anticipated. The presented approach provides a valuable screening tool to better understand the potential for changing groundwater contamination risk in rural regions and can be used to guide groundwater monitoring programs and water supply development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]