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• Developed a Decision Support Framework to classify uncertainties and management options using participatory scoping for scenarios analysis. • DSS includes: reservoirs water balance, statistical downscaling, hydrological modelling, sediment assessment, water management and decision support for water management plans. • DSS framework was applied to Tandula reservoir Complex, India and performance was evaluated using multi-criteria decision support in the three-layer hierarchal process. • DSS framework provides a solution for strategic water resources planning and management in a basin using the participation of farmers, technocrats, and water resource managers. The climate uncertainties, data scarcity, and socio-techno challenges pose significant threats and options respectively to the future planning of complex water projects in developing countries. This paper attempts to develop a decision support system (DSS) framework to classify uncertainties and management options using participatory scoping for scenarios analysis with the aid of six interrelated modules namely (i) water balance of reservoirs for computation of runoff (ii) statistical downscaling for climate projection (iii) hydrological modelling (iv) sediment assessment (v) water management and (vi) decision support for the assessment of the performance of multiple management plans designed for three future assessment periods of 2020-35, 2046-64 and 2081-99. The proposed framework was applied to the Tandula complex system of Chhattisgarh state of India consists of three reservoirs namely Tandula, Kharkhara, and Gondli having water transfer in their commands and for industrial use. The developed DSS framework provides the opportunity to analyze the management plans with climate uncertainties for the complex water resources projects having data scarcity. Here, in the present paper, the developed DSS framework incorporates eighty-four diverse management plans devised from constant interaction with stakeholders and technocrats resulting to deal with climate uncertainties using possible improvement in efficiencies and consumptive use for three future assessment periods. Furthermore, the performance of the developed plans was evaluated using multi-criteria decision support in the three-layer hierarchal process. The decision support analysis suggested that the second assessment period (FP-2: 2046-64) will be more crucial from the management point of view where 54 out of 81 plans could not perform as par with the present performance of the system. The developed DSS framework provides a solution for strategic water resources planning and management under projected climate scenarios in a basin having problems of scarcity, surplus, and non-uniform distribution of surface water using the participation of farmers, technocrats, and water resource managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Hydrological responses to land use and climate change are simulated using integrated modelling. • Scoring method is applied to select representative climate models. • Mean temperature is likely to increase by 1.79 °C (3.57 °C) under mid (high) emission scenarios. • Annual and monsoon flow is likely to increase during the 2050s and 2080s. • Hydrological sensitivity of the basin is analysed against changes in climatic variables. Accurate spatial and temporal measurement of water budget play a crucial role in achieving the sustainable planning and management of water resources. This paper presents a comprehensive integrated approach to simulate hydrological responses under dynamics of land use land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios over Upper Narmada Basin, India. In order to select the representative climate models, scoring method was applied at regional scale. Best five performing climate models (MIROC5, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2G and IPSL-CM5A-MR) were coupled with semi-distributed hydrological model to simulate the hydrological responses. Considering the heterogeneity of the large basin, multi-site calibration and parameters sensitivity analysis were performed using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. To compute the hydrological sensitivity against land use change, calibrated model was coupled with historical and futuristic land use scenarios (1990, 2000, 2010 and 2030). The results indicate intensified precipitation towards the late 21st century, whereas annual mean temperature could be raised by 1.79 °C and 3.57 °C under mid and high emission scenarios respectively, at the end of century. Annual and monsoon flow in the basin likely to increase during the 2050 s (2041–2070) and 2080 s (2071–2100). Moreover, the relation between climate variables and water budget components were identified to analyse the hydrological sensitivity of the basin under changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]