1. Climate change reshapes bioclimatic environments in China's dry–wet transition zones.
- Author
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Li, Mingxing, Wu, Peili, Ma, Zhuguo, and Liu, Jiandong
- Subjects
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CLIMATIC zones , *EFFECT of human beings on climate change , *GLOBAL warming , *PHYSIOLOGICAL adaptation , *GROWING season , *GRASSLANDS , *CLIMATE change , *SPRING , *CLIMATE change & health - Abstract
• Transition zones are the hotspots of bioclimatic changes under global warming. • Global warming extends growing season lengths but increases heat and water stresses. • Sustainable grasslands in China shrink and shift northwestward with global warming. Bioclimatic response to global warming is a key linkage between anthropogenic climate change and ecosystem sustainability, particularly for the impact-prone climate transition zones. This paper examines changes in heat-water conditions from 2006 to 2100 across China, using the fifth generation climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) and bias-adjusted climate projections by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We then assess the effects of these changes on habitat suitability for responsive ecosystems using a species distribution model. The results reveal significant changes in bioclimatic environments across dry–wet climate transition zones under the present-day climate and the RCP8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, local growing season length (GSL) could extend by 60 days and 30 % of the GSL could be under heat stress. Water conditions worsen overall in both the air and the soil, despite some improvements in the middle parts of transition zones. With altered heat-water conditions, sustainable grasslands shift northwestward, with a reduction of approximately 131 million km2 (46.6 % relative to 2006–2010) in total area. These changes primarily arise from alterations in winter and spring heat-water conditions. Our findings highlight the climate transition zones as hotspots of ecosystem vulnerability demanding particular attention in impact assessment and adaptation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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