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• A novel approach for modelling subsidence induced by fluid extraction from coal seams. • Transient groundwater and subsidence models are linked. • Coal shrinkage induced by gas desorption can significantly impact subsidence. Several coal seams are contained within the formations of Great Artesian Basin (GAB), the largest natural underground water reservoir in Australia and the world. The extraction of coal seam gas (CSG) and its associated water from thousands of wells within the coal measures of the GAB has led to tens of millimetres of subsidence in CSG development areas. Since highly developed farming systems located in these areas rely on very low slope landforms, even this scale of subsidence has caused significant community concern about the potential for CSG extraction to impair farming operations and productivity through changes in land slope and drainage. Coal seam compaction associated with dewatering and gas extraction has two key components: poromechanical compaction and desorption-induced bulk shrinkage. The former results from pore pressure depletion (due to dewatering and gas extraction) and an increase of vertical effective stress, while the latter is induced by gas desorption from the coal matrix, leading to further deformation. While poromechanical compaction of fluid-bearing formations has been extensively addressed in the literature, relatively little research has been conducted on the role of coal shrinkage in CSG-induced subsidence. This paper introduces an innovative practical modelling approach for assessing CSG-induced subsidence at a subregional/regional scale. The approach utilises an analytical model for CSG-induced subsidence derived from constitutive stress–strain relations for poroelastic-sorptive media. This is a novel approach in the context of CSG-induced subsidence which considers both poromechanical compaction and desorption-induced shrinkage. A further distinction to previous work is the integration of the geomechanical-sorptive subsidence model with a numerical groundwater model. Based on this approach, this paper examines the effect of coal shrinkage on subsidence, and its proportions with respect to total compaction for one of the major coal measures in the Surat Basin. Input data are derived from three-dimensional geological, geomechanical, and groundwater models, as well as methane adsorption and desorption reports. Results show that (a) the impact of coal shrinkage on CSG-induced subsidence is likely to be significant in the study area and (b) the contribution of coal shrinkage to CSG-induced subsidence depends on gas content, Langmuir isotherm, shrinkage strain parameters, and the saturation state of coal. This study provides important insights into CSG-induced subsidence and lays the foundation for the development of robust, efficient, and localised predictive models to support environmental impact assessment and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Evaluate the comprehensive carrying capacity of water resources of 31 provinces in China. • Divides the comprehensive carrying capacity of water resources into three aspects. • Combine the classification method of system theory with pressure-state-response model. • Discuss the direct and indirect effects of different variables on the carrying capacity of water resources. There has been a series of water resource problems, such as imbalances of the water supply and demand and serious water pollution, in China. It is important for the Chinese government to formulate a sustainable development strategy for water resources and to effectively guarantee the national water resource security. This paper divides the comprehensive carrying capacity of water resources into the following three aspects: the water resource balance capacity, the water resource pressure and driving force, and the water resource development and utilization capacity. Taking 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China as research objects, the catastrophe progression method is adopted to evaluate the comprehensive carrying capacity of interprovincial water resources in China from 2010 to 2016. The direct effects and spatial spillover effects of different factors on water resources are discussed by constructing a spatial Durbin model (SDM). The results show that there are obvious spatial differences in the water resource balance ability, pressure and driving force, and development and utilization ability. The spatial distribution follows a decreasing trend from east to west and from south to north. The water supply, water demand, investment in environmental management, economic development and balance of the ecosystem have obvious direct effects on the carrying capacity of water resources. The spatial spillover effect of the water supply and demand, energy consumption, the proportion of protected areas and the newly increased areas of soil erosion control are significant and will have a strong impact on the water resource carrying capacity of surrounding areas. The conclusion of this paper can provide a reference for the government in making water resource management policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Groundwater vulnerability zonation investigation is conducted for GHM Greater Bay Area. • Three different perspectives are comprehensively considered in this study. • Groundwater risk, function value and contamination status are superposed using the AHP method. • Quantification and visualization of groundwater contamination prevention regionalization. • The AHP-DRASTICH model is an effective method to evaluate the groundwater risk in shallow aquifers. The groundwater contamination assessment and prevention regionalization are an important part of groundwater investigation, which is of great significance to groundwater environmental management and contamination control. Although the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GHM Greater Bay Area) has faced significant groundwater contamination since 2020, there's been no investigation into its vulnerability zonation. In this paper, groundwater in a typical area of south China was taken as the research object. We analyzed groundwater contamination risk by considering both the groundwater vulnerability and the load from contamination sources. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, we superposed the groundwater risk, function value and contamination status, and realized the quantification and visualization of groundwater contamination prevention regionalization. Based on the DRASTIC model, the zones of low, moderate, high, and very high vulnerability are respectively 14.2 %, 24.28 %, 37.67 %, and 20.45 % of the study area. Results show that the groundwater vulnerability grade in the area is III-IV, which means it is easy to be polluted. The functional value of groundwater in the south-central part of the region is relatively high. Most of the areas with high prevention and control levels are located in plain areas and the Piedmont plain area with an area of 460 km2. The secondary control levels (key protection area) are mainly located in the middle, southwest, and northeast of the plain, with an area of 6944 square kilometers. Consequently, the ideas and contamination prevention zone maps might provide a scientific foundation for long-term planning and management and groundwater conservation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and peripheral zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Sensitivity analysis was applied to a linked hydro-agronomic system to identify controlling factors on groundwater storage and crop yield. • Sensitivity analysis was conducted using the Sobol' variance-based sensitivity analysis. • Uncertainty of model responses was quantitatively apportioned to the variation of each input factor. • The linked system is important for quantifying the impact of system properties on groundwater storage. Linked hydro-agronomic modeling systems are often used to evaluate the impact of climate change or management strategies on both groundwater and crop yield. However, these modeling studies have been performed without a detailed assessment of the factors that jointly control groundwater storage and crop yield. The objective of this paper is to present results from a study that applied sensitivity analysis to the linked DSSAT-MODFLOW modeling system to determine the governing environmental and management factors that control groundwater storage and crop yield in an intensively irrigated groundwater region basin. Methods are applied to Finney County, in southwest Kansas, USA. Sensitivity analysis was accomplished using the Morris screening method followed by the Sobol' variance-based method using random sampling. A combination of soil, hydrologic, plant cultivar, and climate parameters are included in the analysis. A combination of Python scripts and SimLab pre- and post-processing routines were used to generate values of parameters, update model files for DSSAT and MODFLOW, run the model simulations, and calculate sensitivity indices. Results indicate that climatic parameters account for 44%, 29%, 40%, and 36% variation in maize, soybean, winter wheat, and sorghum yields. Hydrogeologic parameters (i.e., hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, and riverbed conductance) have relatively low influence on crop yield. Water table elevation, recharge, and irrigation pumping are considerably sensitive to soil- and climate-related parameters, while evapotranspiration, river leakage, and groundwater discharge are highly influenced by hydrogeological parameters. These results can be used to explore effects of management strategies on groundwater and agricultural sustainability in similar regions in the face of a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]