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• We proposed a new drought monitoring index; • We corroborated the applicability of this newly-proposed drought index; • We characterized spatial and temporal patterns of droughts across China. In this study, we proposed a new integrated remote sensing drought monitoring indices, i.e. Multiple Remote Sensing Drought Index integrated by Principal Component Analysis (PSDI), Multiple Remote Sensing Drought Index integrated by multiple linear regression (MRSDI) and Multiple Remote Sensing drought index integrated by gradient boosting method (GBMDI), based on the Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI). The monitoring performance of PSDI, MRSDI and GBMDI was compared and verified based on the real-world observed droughts during 2002 to 2016. We also evidenced drought monitoring performance of the PSDI MRSDI and GBMDI by comparison between PSDI, MRSDI, GBMDI and SPEI, SPI and PDSI based on the in situ observed meteorological data. We found that the spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts monitored by the PSDI, MRSDI and GBMDI were generally in good agreement with those by the SPI and SPEI. The GBMDI performs better than PSDI and MRSDI in describing drought processes and spatial patterns of droughts of different drought intensities. Comparison between the real-world observed drought-affected croplands and those monitored by PSDI, MRSDI and GBMDI indicated better drought monitoring performance of GBMDI than PSDI and MRSDI in monitoring droughts across widespread drought-affected regions. Besides, the trend of GBMDI is in good agreement with standardized crop yield. Therefore GBMDI should be the first choice in drought monitoring practice. The GBMDI developed in this study can help to provide an alternative drought monitoring index for large-scale drought monitoring across China and also in other regions of the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary In recent years, the Poyang Lake basin is in a prolonged drought which has placed immense pressure on the water resources utilization. In this paper, we explore the spatial and temporal distributions of extreme droughts in the Poyang Lake basin by using the methods of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) for the period of 1956–2009, which are influenced by regional precipitation anomalies and river–lake interaction due to water impounding of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). The results show that: (1) the Poyang Lake basin experienced six extreme droughts during the past 60 years, which lead to decreases in streamflow from five tributary rivers down to the Poyang Lake. The droughts in the 1960s and the 2000s were the most serious ones. However, there was an increasing trend of streamflow in the upper and middle Yangtze in the 1960s, and a decreasing trend appeared in the 2000s. The decline of streamflow in the upper Yangtze reaches has lowered the water level of lower Yangtze River which has caused more outflow from the Poyang Lake to the Yangtze River; (2) the operation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has altered the seasonal pattern of flow regimes in the Poyang Lake and significantly reduced the water level in the lower Yangtze River during the TGD impounding period from late September to early November; and (3) the conjunction of extreme droughts in the Poyang Lake and the upper Yangtze reaches coincided with the impounding of the TGD is the main cause of the low water level in the Poyang Lake. Although the impact of the recent droughts in the Poyang Lake and upper Yangtze reaches has played a crucial role in the low water level of Poyang Lake, more attention should be paid to its sensitivity to the influence of the large dam-induced changes in the interaction between river and lake, particularly during impounding periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A cascade model chain suitable for the risk of future DWAA events is proposed. • Evolution characteristics of DWAA in the future period of YRB are revealed. • Severity of DWAA events in far-future is greater than that in the near-future. • Extreme precipitation events have strong synchronization with DWAA events. At present, many studies have investigated the evolution characteristics, frequency estimation techniques, and prediction of droughts and floods, but a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution law and joint risk of these two composite extreme events is still lacking. The synergistic effect of dry and wet abrupt alternation (DWAA) events has more significant consequences than a single drought and flood event, and these events have a considerable impact on agriculture, ecology, and economy. Furthermore, owing to the intensification of global warming and climate change, the potential synchronisation between DWAA events and extreme precipitation in the future requires special attention. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a reliable framework to analyse the evolution characteristics and risks of composite extreme events (DWAA). In this study, a cascade modelling chain comprising climate model downscaling, non-uniform bias-correction technique, and model integration was developed to study the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and combined risk impact of DWAA events. The proposed methodology was applied to the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in the historical period (1960–2014, Hist) and the future period (2021–2060, FUT1; and 2061–2100, FUT2) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3–7.0 and 5–8.5 scenarios. The results show that: (1) The constructed cascade modelling chain has high simulation accuracy for precipitation, and can be used to analyse future DWAA events. (2) Considering the precipitation characteristics under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the precipitation increases slightly in the near future FUT1 (about 5–10%), and increases significantly in the far future FUT2 (about 10–70%). (3) Following either scenario, the frequency of DWAA events is expected to decrease in the future compared to that in the Hist, but the average intensity is expected to increase compared to that in the Hist. (4) The joint risk of the impact area and intensity of future DWAA events of FUT2 is greater than that of FUT1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The path analysis method is proposed to explain the interplay of drivers in soil moisture drought. • Precipitation deficits dominates the interannual variation of soil moisture drought while potential evapotranspiration impacts are magnified by drought deterioration. • Atmospheric movement and temperate indirectly affects soil moisture drought through precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. • Proportion of drought explanation decreased with increasing soil depth. Soil moisture drought, as one of the most important drought categories, is determined by both water supply (e.g., precipitation) and demand (e.g., potential evapotranspiration). To shed light on the underlying mechanisms driving soil moisture drought, the statistical multiple linear regression, machine learning, and modeling experiments methods have been pervasively used in early studies. However, these methods neglect the collinearity and interactions of climate variables, and thus cannot reflect the direct and indirect interaction of factors leading to soil moisture drought. To reveal the synergistic effects of water supply and demand on soil moisture drought, this study quantified the contributions of key drivers to the change of soil moisture drought by a path analysis method to exhibit the relationships between atmospheric movement state and soil moisture drought. Prior to applying the systematic path analysis model, we identified the spatial patterns of soil moisture droughts at different depths by using a state-of-art three-dimensional drought recognition method in China. Our results showed that precipitation deficits dominated the interannual variation of soil moisture drought while increasing potential evapotranspiration only had marginal intensification in drought. The response of soil moisture drought to potential evapotranspiration was magnified by drought deterioration, especially in basically severe drought conditions. The total column water vapor and the horizontal divergence of the vapor flux, as well as temperature, directly affected precipitation and potential evapotranspiration and led to soil moisture drought through various direct and indirect processes. This study highlighted that the interactions among precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and atmospheric vapor movement state in space and time were important for understanding the drought development mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We developed a modified drought severity index (MDSI) with a constrained optimization technique. • MDSI improves drought monitoring for forests and farmland. • Ecological restoration and cultivated land reclamation can help mitigate droughts, while urbanization can potentially intensify droughts. With advancement of remote sensing techniques, remote-sensing drought indices have been widely used for drought monitoring. However, the monitoring accuracy of a specific drought index regionally varies. Considering the deficiency of existing drought indices in reflecting vegetation growth, here we propose a Modified Drought Severity Index (MDSI) with local optimization method constrained by the inclusion of vegetation greenness, crop water shortage, canopy temperature, vegetation structure, and physiological status. We evaluated drought monitoring performance of MDSI across China, and detected high correlations between MDSI and soil moisture (SM), Standardized Precipitation Index at a 3-month scale (SPI-3), actual drought-affected areas (ADA), evidencing higher drought performance of MDSI when compared to 8 widely-used drought indices. Besides, MDSI performed better in monitoring agricultural drought. We found amplifying short-term drought intensity in the future. Ecological restoration and cultivated land reclamation can alleviate drought effects. However, urbanization can potentially intensify droughts. How to adapt human behavior to droughts is a challenging task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We evaluated soil moisture droughts with duration, magnitude and extremum in monsoon and non-monsoon regions. • We identified more evident impacts of anthropogenic forcing on soil moisture drought in monsoon region than in non-monsoon region. • We found larger impacts of anthropogenic forcing on drought magnitude, relative to drought duration and drought extremum. The spatio-temporal patterns of drought changes and relevant forcings are still open for debate, especially under global warming, even though agricultural drought has long been receiving increasing concern for food security and sustainable development. In this study, we depicted global spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural drought using the Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) and reflected on the underlying forcings using the optimal fingerprint method. Three aspects of droughts were analyzed, i.e. drought duration (DD), drought magnitude (DM) and drought extremum (DE) over three regions, i.e. global, monsoon and non-monsoon regions. We found distinct spatial heterogeneity of DD, DM and DE. However, DM (DE) had mainly a decreasing (increasing) tendency. Anthropogenic forcing ([ANT] including greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol, and ozone) and greenhouse gas forcing (GHG) played a prominent role in driving drought changes and were followed by the combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing (ALL). Soil moisture drought (DD, DM and DE) responses to external forcing of ANT and GHG were detected more easily in the monsoon region than in the non-monsoon region. Specifically, DM changes due to ANT (2.58 per century) contributed 39.88% of the DM changes by ALL (6.47 per century) in the monsoon regions, comparatively, the GHG and ANT induced changes of DM in the non-monsoon regions were quite slight. This study further clarified the impacts of anthropogenic warming on agricultural drought over the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An observation-based natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method is proposed. • Human influence are quantified based on gridded socio-economic and land use data. • Climatic and anthropogenic influences on drought propagation are investigated. • Climate change accelerates the response of hydrological drought to meteorological drought. • Human activities delay the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought. It is crucial to investigate how a precipitation deficit is transformed into hydrological drought and how climate change and human activities affect this transformation process, which is helpful to gain a deep understanding of drought propagation process in this changing environment. This study proposed an observation-based natural and human-impacted catchment comparison method to assess the impacts of climate change and human activities on propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought. The method mainly consists of the following three steps: (1) selection of natural catchments through analysis of trends and change points of hydro-meteorological data, as well as statistics analysis of human influence based on land use and socio-economic indicators data sets; (2) calculation of drought propagation characteristics (e.g., drought severity, duration, and propagation time) based on run theory and the Pearson correlation coefficient; and (3) comparison of drought propagation characteristics of natural catchments between undisturbed and disturbed periods to identify the impacts of climate change on drought propagation, and comparison of the propagation characteristics between natural and human-impacted catchments during the disturbed period to investigate human influence on drought propagation. The Laohahe basin (with eleven sub-catchments), located in northern China, was evaluated via the proposed procedure, and standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized runoff index (SRI) were used to characterize meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is suitable tool for distinguishing natural and human-impacted catchments, and separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on drought propagation. Furthermore, the comparison results of different schemes show that climate change accelerates the propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Laohahe basin, shortening it by approximately 3 months. Human activities, however, disturb and then delay the natural propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought, retarding it by 11–12 months. Although the Laohahe basin was selected as a case study in this paper, the proposed method can be applied in other regions as well to improve drought prediction and water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A comprehensive approach for identifying drought termination characteristics is proposed. • Natural and human-influenced hydrological drought termination characteristics are identified. • Human activities significantly aggravate the drought termination duration, deficit and rate. • Human activities lead to shifts in drought termination seasonality. Although many previous studies have analysed the impacts of human activities on hydrological drought, studies that analysed these impacts from the perspective of drought termination, a critical re-wetting phase of hydrological drought, are limited. A deeper understanding on how human alter hydrological drought termination phase is essential for improving drought recovery prediction and performance of the drought early warning system. In this study, a comprehensive approach for identifying hydrological drought termination characteristics and quantifying the impact of human activities on drought termination was proposed. This approach, which combines the concept of drought termination (DT), an 'observed–simulated' comparison approach, and the variable threshold level method (TLM v), consists of the following steps: (1) reconstruction of natural streamflow using a hydrological model, (2) identification of hydrological drought termination characteristics using TLM v method and the concept of drought termination, and (3) quantification of human influence by comparison of the hydrological drought termination characteristics of human-influenced (observed) series and those of natural (simulated) series. The Laohahe basin, consists of four catchments (Xiquan, Xiaochengzi, Dianzi, and Taipingzhuang) in northern China, was evaluated using the proposed procedure. The study demonstrated that the proposed approach is efficient in quantifying human influence on hydrological drought termination phase. The results revealed that human activities have significant impacts on the hydrological drought termination phase in the Xiaochengzi, Dianzi, and Taipingzhuang catchments. All the average drought termination duration (DT dur), deficit (DT def), and rate (DT rate) in the human-influenced series of the three catchments (Xiaochengzi, Dianzi, and Taipingzhuang) increased in comparison to those in the natural series, with maximum increases of 230%, 865%, and 35%, respectively. The seasonality of the drought termination phase starts (DT start) and ends (DT end) for the three catchments exhibited obvious shifts due to human influence. The preferred seasons for DT start and DT end were shifted to summer and autumn, respectively. The proposed approach and findings of this study may help to gain a deeper understanding of how human activities alter hydrological drought termination severity (drought termination duration, deficit, and rate) and time (drought termination starts or ends). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A framework is proposed to investigate the drought hazard propagation. • Drought hazards are quantified by the most-likely scenarios and uncertainty envelope. • Drought hazards tend to ascend from meteorological to hydrological droughts. As a major weather-driven disaster, drought can be assessed from meteorological to hydrological aspects. Although the propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts has received lots of attention in recent years, the hazard transferability in such a propagation process has been less investigated. In this study, we propose a framework with the incorporation of copulas and a drought hazard propagation ratio (DHPR) to examine the drought propagation process, particularly to investigate the accompanying hazard transferability. Three catchments with few human activities located in two major river basins of China (i.e., the Yangtze River basin and the Yellow River basin) with different hydro-climatic conditions are selected as case studies. First, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the standardized runoff index (SRI) are calculated to measure meteorological and hydrological droughts for the 1961–2014 period. Subsequently, the drought duration and severity are identified using the theory of run, and then the most-likely scenarios and the corresponding uncertainty ellipse based on copulas are incorporated to appraise meteorological and hydrological drought hazards. Finally, a novel concept of DHPR is proposed to evaluate the hazard transferability from meteorological to hydrological drought. The results show that (1) the drought propagation generally shows lengthened duration, amplified severity, and the time-delay phenomenon among these catchments; (2) drought hazards represented by the most-likely scenarios of duration and severity and the uncertainty ellipse tend to ascend based on the bivariate frequency analysis; and (3) the hazard transferability is stable from meteorological to hydrological droughts, as indicated by the almost unchanged DHPR ranging between 1 and 2 for the most-likely scenarios and varying between 2 and 4 for the uncertainty ellipse under different return periods. The above results imply firm and robust correlations between meteorological and hydrological drought hazards, which can provide a supplement for revealing the drought propagation mechanism and would benefit drought risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]