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• Salinity intrusion (SI) is intensified in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). • Freshwater exploitability is investigated to cope with SI driven by climate change. • SI in the VMD has progressively increased and started earlier in the dry season. • Early and the late of the dry season are suitable time for freshwater exploitation. • Storing freshwater in the river is a promising strategy. Climate change-driven sea level rise has intensified salinity intrusion (SI) in deltas worldwide, posing significant threats to the exploitation of freshwater resources. In the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD), the third largest delta globally, SI is a recurring challenge along the coastline, degrading freshwater resources for agricultural and domestic use and affecting socio-economic development. In this paper, we investigate the spatiotemporal extent of salinity intrusion in the Ben Tre Province, the hotspot of salinity disaster within the VMD. Long-term salinity monitoring data (25 years from 1996 to 2020) has been analyzed, and a 1D (Mike 11) coupled with 3D hydrodynamic model (Mike 3) was developed. Three scenarios were used to investigate the freshwater resources exploitation: (i) the year of investigation (2021), (ii) 2021 to 2030 climate change impacts, considering different annual exceedance probability of the upstream Mekong discharge (i.e., average flow, relatively low, low and very low), and (iii) extreme salinity intrusion (i.e., the 2016 condition). Our results indicated that salinity patterns are well-stratified at the beginning and end of the dry season but well-mixed during the middle period. Furthermore, over the last 25 years, SI has progressively increased and started earlier in the dry season. The modeling scenarios for SI have also revealed a growing complexity in the exploitation of freshwater resources, highlighting challenges related to timing, depth, and geographical location. The exceedance probability scenarios disclosed higher and deeper salinity intrusion along the channel in VMD, ranging from 50 % to 95 %. This poses significant limitations on the feasibility of freshwater exploitation throughout the Ben Tre Province. Under the current trajectory of climate change, the 2030 scenario anticipates salinity intrusion reaching further inland from the 2021 scenario. This is likely to exacerbate the existing challenges in freshwater resource exploitation, even with comprehensive water infrastructure. We, therefore, propose several management strategies to adapt to salinity intrusion: storing freshwater in main rivers, maintaining consistent operation of water infrastructure systems, and encouraging water-saving distribution and exploitation methods. Moreover, we also recommend supporting the development of new drought-tolerant crop patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: There is increasing concern about the availability of water supplies in developing countries to provide clean drinking water and sanitation as well as providing for irrigation for food security. This has led to hydrologically led investigation to establish the feasibility and storage capacity of potentially new dam sites. This task has become more difficult for hydrologists and others with the uncertainties created by climate change and the measurement of the hydrological, geographical and ecological footprint of new dams. The questions asked by hydrologists are increasingly likely to be required to be cast in terms of the four pillars of sustainability; environmental, economic, social and institutional. Similarly, regional planners have to be more cognisant of the social outcomes of dam development while understanding the wider hydrological context at a watershed and basin level. The paper defines the concept of sustainability assessment in the context of resettlement and analyses its implications for the Bakun Hydro-electric project in Sarawak, Malaysia. Specifically it attempts to address the question of what social sustainability would really mean in the context of communities affected by dam projects, and their catchments using hermeneutics, tradeoffs and offsets. The findings of this question were presented at a hydrological conference held in Santiago in October 2010, based on the outcome of specific questionnaire responses received from indigenous peoples affected by the Bakun Dam hydroelectric project. The paper also offers some insights pertaining to the social sustainability assessment aspects of dams and their catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vietnam is a country with diverse terrain and climatic conditions and a dependency on hydropower for a significant proportion of its power needs and as such, is particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. In this paper we apply SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) derived discharge simulation results coupled with regression analysis to estimate the performance of hydropower plants for Vietnam between 1995 and mid-2014 when both power supply and demand increased rapidly. Our approach is to examine the watershed formed from three large inter-boundary basins: The Red River, the Vietnam Coast and the Lower Mekong River, which have a total area of 977,964 km 2 . We then divide this area into 7,887 sub-basins with an average area of 131.6 km 2 (based on level 12 of HydroSHEDS/HydroBASINS datasets) and 53,024 Hydrological Response Units (HRUs). Next we simulate river flow for the 40 largest hydropower plants across Vietnam. Our validation process demonstrates that the simulated flows are significantly correlated with the gauged inflows into these dams and are able to serve as a good proxy for the inflows into hydropower dams in our baseline energy regression, which captures 87.7% of the variation in monthly power generation. In other results we estimate that large dams sacrifice on average around 18.2% of their contemporaneous production for the purpose of flood control. When we assess Vietnam’s current alignment of dams we find that the current cascades of large hydropower dams appear to be reasonably efficient: each MWh/day increase in upstream generation adds 0.146 MWh/day to downstream generation. The study provides evidence for the multiple benefits of a national system of large hydropower dams using a cascade design. Such a system may help overcome future adverse impacts from changes in climate conditions. However, our results show that there is still room for improvement in the harmonization of cascades in some basins. Finally, possible adverse hydro-ecological impacts due to the proliferation of large upstream dams, including those located beyond Vietnam’s border, need to be carefully considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Ongoing pressures from population growth, recurrent drought, climate, urbanization and industrialization in the Nile Basin raise the importance of finding viable measures to adapt to these stresses. Four tributaries of the Eastern Nile Basin contribute to supplies: the Blue Nile (56%), White Nile-Albert (14%), Atbara (15%) and Sobat (15%). Despite much peer reviewed work addressing conflicts on the Nile, none to date has quantitatively examined opportunities for discovering benefit sharing measures that could protect negative impacts on downstream water users resulting from new upstream water storage developments. The contribution of this paper is to examine the potential for mutually beneficial and sustainable benefit sharing measures from the development and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while protecting baseline flows to the downstream countries including flows into the Egyptian High Aswan Dam. An integrated approach is formulated to bring the hydrology, economics and institutions of the region into a unified framework for policy analysis. A dynamic optimization model is developed and applied to identify the opportunities for Pareto Improving measures to operate these two dams for the four Eastern Nile Basin countries: Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Egypt. Results indicate a possibility for one country to be better off (Ethiopia) and no country to be worse off from a managed operation of these two storage facilities. Still, despite the optimism of our results, considerable diplomatic negotiation among the four riparians will be required to turn potential gains into actual welfare improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Floodplain wetlands and their hydrological connectivity with main river channels in the Australian wet–dry tropics are under increasing pressure from global climate change and water resource development, and there is a need for modelling tools to estimate the time dynamics of connectivity. This paper describes an integrated modelling framework combining conceptual rainfall–runoff modelling, river system modelling and hydrodynamic (HD) modelling to estimate hydrological connectivity between wetlands and rivers in the Flinders and Gilbert river catchments in northern Australia. Three historical flood events ranging from a mean annual flood to a 35-year return period flood were investigated using a two dimensional HD model (MIKE 21). Inflows from upstream catchments were estimated using a river network model. Local runoff within the HD modelling domain was simulated using the Sacramento rainfall–runoff model. The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) derived 30 m DEM was used to reproduce floodplain topography, stream networks and wetlands in the HD model. The HD model was calibrated using stream gauge data and inundation maps derived from satellite (MODIS: MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery. An algorithm was developed to combine the simulated water heights with the DEM to quantify inundation and flow connection between wetlands and rivers. The connectivity of 18 ecologically important wetlands on the Flinders floodplain and 7 on the Gilbert floodplain were quantified. The impacts of climate change and water resource development on connectivity to individual wetlands were assessed under a projected dry climate (2nd driest of 15 GCMs), wet climate (2nd wettest of 15 GCMs) and dam conditions. The results indicate that changes in rainfall under a wetter and drier future climate could have large impacts on area, duration and frequency of inundation and connectivity. Topographic relief, river bank elevation and flood magnitude were found to be the key factors contributing to the level of connectivity. Under a wetter future climate the average duration of connection of wetlands to the main river channel increased by 7% and under a drier climate it decreased by 18%. Construction of a 248 GL dam in the Flinders catchment and two (498 and 271 GL capacity) in the Gilbert catchment could reduce the average duration of connectivity by 1% and 2% in the Flinders and Gilbert catchments respectively. This information is potentially useful to future studies on the flood-dependent ecology in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]