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The paper presents the incremental improvement of the prediction of the Great Lakes net basin supply (NBS) with the hydrometeorological model Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) by increasing the accuracy of the simulated NBS components (overlake precipitation, lake evaporation, and runoff into the lake). This was achieved through a series of experiments with MESH and its parent numerical weather prediction model [the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in its regional configuration (GEM Regional)]. With forcing extracted from operational GEM Regional forecasts, MESH underestimated the NBS in fall and winter. The underestimation increased when the GEM precipitation was replaced with its corrected version provided by the Canadian Precipitation Analysis. This pointed to overestimated lake evaporation and prompted the revision of the parameterization of the surface turbulent fluxes over water used both in MESH and GEM. The revised parameterization was validated against turbulent fluxes measured at a point on Lake Superior. Its use in MESH reduced the lake evaporation and largely corrected the NBS underestimation. However, the Lake Superior NBS became overestimated, signaling an inconsistency between the reduced lake evaporation and the prescribed precipitation. To remove the inconsistency, a new forcing dataset (including precipitation) was generated with the GEM model using the revised flux parameterization. A major NBS simulation improvement was obtained with the new atmospheric forcing reflecting the atmospheric response to the modified surface fluxes over the lakes. Additional improvements resulted by correcting the runoff with a modified snowmelt rate and by insertion of observed streamflows. The study shows that accurate lake evaporation simulation is crucial for accurate NBS prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to provide some new understanding of the mechanical as well as thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the circulation and climate in Asia through diagnosis and numerical experiments. The air column over the TP descends in winter and ascends in summer and regulates the surface Asian monsoon flow. Sensible heating on the sloping lateral surfaces appears from the authors’ experiments to be the major driving source. The retarding and deflecting effects of the TP in winter generate an asymmetric dipole zonal-deviation circulation, with a large anticyclone gyre to the north and a cyclonic gyre to the south. Such a dipole deviation circulation enhances the cold outbreaks from the north over East Asia, results in a dry climate in south Asia and a moist climate over the Indochina peninsula and south China, and forms the persistent rainfall in early spring (PRES) in south China. In summer the TP heating generates a cyclonic spiral zonal-deviation circulation in the lower troposphere, which converges toward and rises over the TP. It is shown that because the TP is located east of the Eurasian continent, in summertime the meridional winds and vertical motions forced by the Eurasian continental-scale heating and the TP local heating are in phase over the eastern and central parts of the continent. The monsoon in East Asia and the dry climate in middle Asia are therefore intensified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Representation of the canopy hydrological processes has been challenging in land surface modeling due to the subgrid heterogeneity in both precipitation and surface characteristics. The Shuttleworth dynamic–statistical method is widely used to represent the impact of the precipitation subgrid variability on canopy hydrological processes but shows unwanted sensitivity to temporal resolution when implemented into land surface models. This paper presents a canopy hydrology scheme that is robust at different temporal resolutions. This scheme is devised by applying two physically based treatments to the Shuttleworth scheme: 1) the canopy hydrological processes within the rain-covered area are treated separately from those within the nonrain area, and the scheme tracks the relative rain location between adjacent time steps; and 2) within the rain-covered area, the canopy interception is so determined as to sustain the potential evaporation from the wetted canopy or is equal to precipitation, whichever is less, to maintain somewhat wet canopy during any rainy time step. When applied to the Amazon region, the new scheme establishes interception loss ratios of 0.3 at a 10-min time step and 0.23 at a 2-h time step. Compared to interception loss ratios of 0.45 and 0.09 at the corresponding time steps established by the original Shuttleworth scheme, the new scheme is much more stable under different temporal resolutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 12 weather and climate models participating in the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) show both a wide variation in the strength of land–atmosphere coupling and some intriguing commonalities. In this paper, the causes of variations in coupling strength—both the geographic variations within a given model and the model-to-model differences—are addressed. The ability of soil moisture to affect precipitation is examined in two stages, namely, the ability of the soil moisture to affect evaporation, and the ability of evaporation to affect precipitation. Most of the differences between the models and within a given model are found to be associated with the first stage—an evaporation rate that varies strongly and consistently with soil moisture tends to lead to a higher coupling strength. The first-stage differences reflect identifiable differences in model parameterization and model climate. Intermodel differences in the evaporation–precipitation connection, however, also play a key role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, observations of key components of the earth's large-scale water and energy budgets are sparse or even nonexistent. One key component, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P - ET), remains largely unmeasured due to the absence of observations of ET. Precipitation minus evapotranspiration describes the flux of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface, and therefore provides important information regarding the interaction of the atmosphere with the land surface. In this paper, large-scale changes in continental water storage derived from satellite gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) project are combined with river discharge data to obtain estimates of areally averaged P - ET. After constructing an equation describing the large-scale terrestrial water balance reflecting the temporal sampling of GRACE water storage estimates, GRACE-derived P - ET estimates are compared to those obtained from a reanalysis dataset [NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2] and a land surface model driven with observation-based forcing [Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah] for two large U.S. river basins. GRACE-derived P - ET compares quite favorably with the reanalysis-2 output, while P - ET from the Noah model shows significant differences. Because the uncertainties in the GRACE results can be computed rigorously, this comparison may be considered as a validation of the models. In addition to showing how GRACE P - ET estimates may be used to validate model output, the accuracy of GRACE estimates of both the seasonal cycle and the monthly averaged rate of P - ET is examined. Finally, the potential for estimating seasonal evapotranspiration is demonstrated by combining GRACE seasonal P - ET estimates with independent estimates of the seasonal cycle of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A diagnostic Lagrangian method to trace the budgets of freshwater fluxes, first described in Part I of this article, is used here to establish source–sink relationships of moisture between earth’s ocean basins and river catchments. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, driven with meteorological analyses, 1.1 million particles, representing the mass of the atmosphere, were tracked over a period of 4 yr. Via diagnosis of the changes of specific humidity along the trajectories, budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E - P) were determined. For validation purposes, E - P budgets were calculated for 39 river catchments and compared with climatological streamflow data for these rivers. Good agreement (explained variance 87%) was found between the two quantities. The E - P budgets were then tracked forward from all of earth’s ocean basins and backward from the 39 major river catchments for a period of 10 days. As much previous work was done for the Mississippi basin, this basin was chosen for a detailed analysis. Moisture recycling over the continent and moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico were identified as the major sources for precipitation over the Mississippi basin, in quantitative agreement with previous studies. In the remainder of the paper, global statistics for source–sink relationships of moisture between the ocean basins and river catchments are presented. They show, for instance, the evaporative capacity of monsoonal flows for precipitation over the Ganges and Niger catchments, and the transport of moisture from both hemispheres to supply the Amazon’s precipitation. In contrast, precipitation in northern Eurasia draws its moisture mainly via recycling over the continent. The atmospheric transport of moisture between different ocean basins was also investigated. It was found that transport of air from the North Pacific produces net evaporation over the North Atlantic, but not vice versa. This helps to explain why the sea surface salinity is higher in the North Atlantic than in the North Pacific, a difference thought to be an important driver of the oceans’ thermohaline circulation. Finally, limitations of the method are discussed and possible future developments are outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaporation is a principal factor in the hydrological cycle and energy exchange; however, estimations of evaporation include large uncertainties. In this study, a modified estimation of evaporation based on empirical linearly simplified Penman evaporation (PES) is proposed, soil moisture and precipitation are used to correct the land surface evaporation estimation, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of the corrected evaporation (CE) are investigated globally. The results show that CE is strong at low latitudes and weak at high latitudes. CE has obvious seasonal variation, ranging from 0.2 to 4.0 mm day−1; CE is prominent in summer but feeble in winter. Compared to PES, CE is generally weaker in most regions, especially in arid regions, with differences of more than 9 mm day−1. CE agrees well with evaporation derived from FLUXNET-Model Tree Ensemble (FLUXNET-MTE), MERRA, and GLDAS. In general, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between annual CE and FLUXNET-MTE is less than 0.2 mm day−1, and CE is about 5%–10% less than the evaporation of FLUXNET-MTE. In the arid regions, the maximum CE almost occurs in the month with the strongest precipitation; in the tropical regions, soil moisture enhances CE only when precipitation is less. In the context of global temperature rise, PES always shows an apparent increasing trend due to the water supply is not considered; however, CE decreases in western Asia, the western United States, the Amazon basin, and Central Africa, but weakly increases in the other study regions from 1984 to 2013. This study provides a method for estimating evaporation considering more restrictive factors on evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intermittency is a core characteristic of precipitation, not well described by data and very poorly modeled. Detailed analyses are made of near-global gridded (about 1°) hourly or 3-hourly precipitation rates from two updated observational datasets [3-hourly TRMM 3B42, version 7, and hourly CMORPH, version 1.0, bias corrected (CRT)] and from special runs of CESM from January 1998 to December 2013 to obtain hourly values. The analyses explore the intermittency of precipitation: the frequency, intensity, duration, and amounts. A comparison is made for all products using several metrics with a focus on the duration of events, and a new metric is proposed based on the ratio of the frequency of precipitation at certain rates (0.2-2 mm h−1) for hourly versus 3-hourly versus daily data. For all seasons and rain rates, TRMM values are similar in pattern to CMORPH, but durations are about 80%-85%. It is mainly over land in the monsoons that CMORPH exceeds TRMM rain durations. Observed duration of precipitation events in CMORPH over oceans are 12-15 h in the tropics and subtropics, much less than the ~20 h for CESM. Hence, the observational results differ somewhat but both are considerably different from the model, which has too much precipitation overall, and it precipitates far too often at low rates and not enough for intense rates, with the divide about 1-2 mm h−1. There is a need to properly represent precipitation phenomena and processes either explicitly or implicitly (parameterized). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deuterium excess is a second-order parameter linking water-stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes and has been widely used in hydrological studies. The deuterium excess in precipitation is greatly influenced by below-cloud evaporation through unsaturated air, especially in an arid climate. Based on an observation network of isotopes in precipitation of arid central Asia, the difference in deuterium excess from cloud base to ground was calculated for each sampling site. The difference on the southern slope of the Tian Shan is generally larger than that on the northern slope, and the difference during the summer months is greater than that during the winter months. Generally, an increase of 1% in evaporation of raindrops causes deuterium excess to decrease by approximately 1‰. Under conditions of low air temperature, high relative humidity, heavy precipitation, and large raindrop diameter, a good linear correlation is exhibited between evaporation proportion and difference in deuterium excess, and a linear regression slope of <1‰ %−1 can be seen; in contrast, under conditions of high air temperature, low relative humidity, light precipitation, and small raindrop diameter, the linear relationship is relatively weak, and the slope is much larger than 1‰ %−1. A sensitivity analysis under different climate scenarios indicates that, if air temperature has increased by 5°C, deuterium excess difference decreases by 0.3‰-4.0‰ for each site; if relative humidity increases by 10%, deuterium excess difference increases by 1.1‰-10.3‰. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of large-scale irrigation in India on the moisture budget of the atmosphere was investigated using three regional climate models and one global climate model, all of which performed an irrigated run and a natural run without irrigation. Using a common irrigation map, year-round irrigation was represented by adding water to the soil moisture to keep it at 90% of the maximum soil moisture storage capacity, regardless of water availability. For two focus regions, the seasonal cycle of irrigation matched that of the reference dataset, but irrigation application varied between the models by up to 0.8 mm day−1. Because of the irrigation, evaporation increased in all models, but precipitation decreased because of a strong decrease in atmospheric moisture convergence. A moisture tracking scheme was used to track individual evaporated moisture parcels through the atmosphere to determine where these lead to precipitation. Up to 35% of the evaporation moisture from the Ganges basin is recycling within the river basin. However, because of a decreased moisture convergence into the river basin, the total amount of precipitation in the Ganges basin decreases. Although a significant fraction of the evaporation moisture recycles within the river basin, the changes in large-scale wind patterns due to irrigation shift the precipitation from the eastern parts of India and Nepal to the northern and western parts of India and Pakistan. In these areas where precipitation increases, the relative precipitation increase is larger than the relative decrease in the areas where precipitation decreases. It is concluded 1) that the direct effects of irrigation on precipitation are small and are not uniform across the models; 2) that a fraction of up to 35% of any marginal evaporation increase (for example, due to irrigation) will recycle within the river basin; and 3) that when irrigation is applied on a large scale, the dominant effect will be a change in large-scale atmospheric flow that decreases precipitation in eastern India and increases it in western and northern India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several land surface datasets, such as the observed Illinois soil moisture dataset; three retrospective offline run datasets from the Noah land surface model (LSM), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) LSM, and Climate Prediction Center leaky bucket soil model; and three reanalysis datasets (North American Regional Reanalysis, NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis, and 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis), are used to study the spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture and its response to the major components of land surface hydrologic cycles: precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. Detailed analysis was performed on the evolution of the soil moisture vertical profile. Over Illinois, model simulations are compared to observations, but for the United States as a whole some impressions can be gained by comparing the multiple soil moisture-precipitation-evaporation-runoff datasets to one another. The magnitudes and partitioning of major land surface water balance components on seasonal-interannual time scales have been explored. It appears that evaporation has the most prominent annual cycle but its interannual variability is relatively small. For other water balance components, such as precipitation, runoff, and surface water storage change, the amplitudes of their annual cycles and interannual variations are comparable. This study indicates that all models have a certain capability to reproduce observed soil moisture variability on seasonal-interannual time scales, but offline runs are decidedly better than reanalyses (in terms of validation against observations) and more highly correlated to one another (in terms of intercomparison) in general. However, noticeable differences are also observed, such as the degree of simulated drought severity and the locations affected-this is due to the uncertainty in model physics, input forcing, and mode of running (interactive or offline), which continue to be major issues for land surface modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical correction is applied to wind, temperature, and soil moisture fields in a climate model to assess its impact on simulation of the water cycle during boreal summer. The empirical correction method is based on the biases in model forecasts only as a function of the time of year. Corrections are applied to the prognostic equations as an extra nudging term. Mean fields of evaporation, precipitation, moisture transport, and recycling ratio are all improved, even though humidity fields were not corrected. Simulation of the patterns of surface evaporation supplying rainfall at locations over land is also improved for most locations. There is also improvement in the simulation of evaporation and possibly rainfall, as measured by anomaly correlation coefficients and root-mean-square errors of the time series of monthly anomalies. However, monthly anomalies of other water cycle fields such as moisture transport and recycling ratio were not improved. Like any statistical adjustment, empirical correction does not address the cause of model errors, but it does provide a net improvement to the simulation of the water cycle. It can, however, be used to diagnose the sources of error in the model. Since corrections are only applied to prognostic variables, shortcomings due to physical parameterizations in the model are not remedied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have attempted to address the land–precipitation coupling, but scientists’ understanding remains limited and discrepancies still exist from different studies. A new parameter Γ is proposed here to estimate the land–precipitation coupling strength based on the ratio of the covariance between monthly or seasonal precipitation and evaporation anomalies (from their climatological means) over the variance of precipitation anomalies. The Γ value is easy to compute and insensitive to the horizontal scales used; however, it does not provide causality. A relatively high Γ is a necessary—but not sufficient—condition for a relatively strong land–precipitation coupling. A computation of Γ values using two global reanalyses (ECMWF and NCEP), one regional reanalysis [North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)], and observed precipitation along with Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)-derived evaporation data indicates that the land–precipitation coupling is stronger in summer and weaker in winter. The strongest coupling (i.e., hot spots) occurs over the western and central parts of North America, part of the Eurasia midlatitude, and Sahel in boreal summer and over most of Australia, Argentina, and South Africa in austral summer. The Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) shows much higher Γ values, consistent with the strong coupling shown by its atmosphere–land coupled components in previous studies. Its overall spatial pattern of Γ values is not affected much over most regions by the doubling of CO2 in CCSM3. The Γ values from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) are more realistic than those from CCSM3; however, they are still higher than those from observations over North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the global precipitation and evaporation in global warming simulations increase at 1%–3% K-1, much smaller than the rate suggested from the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relation (6%–6.5% K-1). However, the reduction of surface sensible heat flux over the global ocean (5.2% K-1) matches the difference between the fractional increase of evaporation and the C–C relation, implying that the fractional decrease of the Bowen ratio over the global ocean follows the C–C relation closely. The analysis suggests that the stabilization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in response to global warming is the main factor responsible for the simultaneous reduction of the surface sensible flux and the muted increase in the surface latent heat. Because the stabilization of the ABL causes the same amount of fractional change in both the sensible and latent heat fluxes, the fractional decrease of the Bowen ratio closely follows the C–C relation. The ABL stabilization mechanism for the muted increase in the global hydrological cycle in response to global warming is physically consistent with two other proposed mechanisms, namely, the atmospheric energy constraint and the reduction of convective mass flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at stimulating the development of soil moisture data assimilation systems in a direction where they can provide both the necessary control of slow drift in operational NWP applications and support the physical insight in the performance of the land surface component. It addresses four topics concerning the systematic nature of soil moisture data assimilation experiments over Europe during the growing season of 2000 involving the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model infrastructure. In the first topic the effect of the (spinup related) bias in 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) precipitation on the data assimilation is analyzed. From results averaged over 36 European locations, it appears that about half of the soil moisture increments in the 2000 growing season are attributable to the precipitation bias. A second topic considers a new soil moisture data assimilation system, demonstrated in a coupled single-column model (SCM) setup, where precipitation and radiation are derived from observations instead of from atmospheric model fields. For many of the considered locations in this new system, the accumulated soil moisture increments still exceed the interannual variability estimated from a multiyear offline land surface model run. A third topic examines the soil water budget in response to these systematic increments. For a number of Mediterranean locations the increments successfully increase the surface evaporation, as is expected from the fact that atmospheric moisture deficit information is the key driver of soil moisture adjustment. In many other locations, however, evaporation is constrained by the experimental SCM setup and is hardly affected by the data assimilation. Instead, a major portion of the increments eventually leave the soil as runoff. In the fourth topic observed evaporation is used to evaluate the impact of the data assimilation on the forecast quality. In most cases, the difference between the control and data assimilation runs is considerably smaller than the (positive) difference between any of the simulations and the observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the impact of anomalous soil moisture conditions on subsequent precipitation over North America, a series of numerical experiments is performed using a modified version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 and the Community Land Model version 3 (CAM3–CLM3). First, the mechanisms underlying the impact of spring and summer soil moisture on subsequent precipitation are examined based on simulations starting on 1 April and 1 June, respectively. How the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on the characteristics of such anomalies, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage, and vertical depth, is then investigated. There are five main findings. First, the impact of spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident until early summer although their impact on the large-scale circulation results in slight changes in precipitation during spring. Second, precipitation increases with initial soil moisture almost linearly within a certain range of soil moisture. Beyond this range, precipitation is less responsive. Third, during the first month following the onset of summer soil moisture anomalies, the precipitation response to wet anomalies is larger in magnitude than that to dry anomalies. However, the resulting wet anomalies in precipitation quickly dissipate within a month or so, while the resulting dry anomalies in precipitation remain at a considerable magnitude for a longer period. Consistently, wet spring anomalies are likely to be ameliorated before summer, and thus have a smaller impact (in magnitude) on summer precipitation than dry spring anomalies. Fourth, soil moisture anomalies of smaller spatial coverage lead to precipitation anomalies that are smaller and less persistent, compared to anomalies at the continental scale. Finally, anomalies in shallow soil can persist long enough to influence the subsequent precipitation at the seasonal time scale. Dry anomalies in deep soils last much longer than those in shallow soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-97 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi, and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, passive tracers are included to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin's precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin recycling has only a weak interannual correspondence with evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin precipitation and recycling have strong interannual correlation on evaporation. The evaporation is related to the moist and shallow planetary boundary layer that provides moisture for convection at the cloud base. At global scales, high precipitation recycling is also found to be partly correlated to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-yr period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real-time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values of the different recycling methods are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin-scale water budgets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological model predictions are sensitive to model forcings, input parameters, and the parameterizations of physical processes. Analyses performed for the Variable Infiltration Capacity model show that the resulting moisture fluxes are sensitive to the time step and energy balance closure assumptions. In addition, the model results are sensitive to the method of spatial and temporal disaggregation of precipitation. For parameter estimation purposes, it is desirable to do parameter searches in water balance mode (meaning that the effective surface temperature is assumed equal to the surface air temperature; hence no iteration for energy balance closure is performed) at daily time steps. However, transferring these parameters directly to other model modes (e.g., energy balance, in which an iteration for effective surface temperature is performed, and/or different model time steps) results in changes in the simulated moisture fluxes. The simulated differences in moisture fluxes are mainly a result of the parameterization of evapotranspiration at different time steps and model modes. A simple scheme that calculates correction factors for some model parameters is developed. The scheme is used to match simulated moisture fluxes in hourly and 3-hourly energy balance mode to the daily water balance simulation results, and to match hourly energy balance runs using spatially and temporally disaggregated precipitation to 3-hourly energy balance runs using uniformly disaggregated precipitation. For both approaches, the corrected simulations match the baseline simulations quite closely, both over transects across much of the continental United States and for test applications in the Ohio and Arkansas–Red River basins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent model intercomparison, the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE), showed that there is a wide range of land–atmosphere coupling strengths, or the degree that soil moisture affects the generation of precipitation, amongst current atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). Coupling strength in the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3) is among the weakest of all AGCMs considered in GLACE. Reasons for the weak HadAM3 coupling strength are sought here. In particular, the impact of pervasive saturated soil conditions and low soil moisture variability on coupling strength is assessed. It is found that when the soil model is modified to reduce the occurrence of soil moisture saturation and to encourage soil moisture variability, the soil moisture–precipitation feedback remains weak, even though the relationship between soil moisture and evaporation is strengthened. Composites of the diurnal cycle, constructed relative to soil moisture, indicate that the model can simulate key differences in boundary layer development over wet versus dry soils. In particular, the influence of wet or dry soil on the diurnal cycles of Bowen ratio, boundary layer height, and total heat flux are largely consistent with the observed influence of soil moisture on these properties. However, despite what appears to be successful simulation of these key aspects of the indirect soil moisture–precipitation feedback, the model does not capture observed differences for wet and dry soils in the daily accumulation of boundary layer moist static energy, a crucial feature of the feedback mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A heavy rain or a dry period can produce an anomaly in soil moisture, and the dissipation of this anomaly may take weeks to months. It is important to understand how land surface models (LSMs) used with atmospheric general circulation models simulate this soil moisture “memory,” because this memory may have profound implications for long-term weather prediction through land–atmosphere feedback. In order to understand better the effect of precipitation and net radiation on soil moisture memory, the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Catchment LSM and the Mosaic LSM were both forced with a wide variety of idealized climates. The imposed climates had average monthly precipitation ranging from 15 to 500 mm and monthly net radiations (in terms of water equivalent) ranging from 20 to 400 mm, with consequent changes in near-surface temperature and humidity. For an equivalent water holding capacity, the two models maximize memory in distinctly different climate regimes. Memory in the NSIPP Catchment LSM exceeds that in the Mosaic LSM when precipitation and net radiation are of the same order; otherwise, memory in the Mosaic LSM is larger. The NSIPP Catchment and the Mosaic LSMs were also driven offline, globally, for a period of 15 yr (1979–93) with realistic atmospheric forcing. Global distributions of 1-month-lagged autocorrelation of soil moisture for boreal summer were computed. An additional global run with the NSIPP Catchment LSM employing the Mosaic LSM's water holding capacities was also performed. These three global runs show that while some of the intermodel difference in memory can be explained (following traditional interpretations) in terms of differences in water holding capacity and potential evaporation, much of the intermodal difference stems from differences in the parameterizations of evaporation and runoff. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variational assimilation (VAR) of hydrologic and hydrometeorological data into operational hydrologic forecasting is explored. The data assimilated are the hourly real-time observations of streamflow and precipitation, and climatological estimates of potential evaporation (PE). The hydrologic system considered is a single headwater basin for which soil moisture accounting and routing are carried out in a lumped fashion via the Sacramento model (SAC) and the unit hydrograph (UH), respectively. The control variables in the VAR formulation are the fast-varying SAC soil moisture states at the beginning of the assimilation window and the multiplicative adjustment factors to the estimates of mean areal precipitation (MAP) and mean areal potential evaporation (MAPE) for each hour in the assimilation window. In a separate application of VAR as a parameter estimation tool, the estimation of empirical UH is also explored by treating its ordinates as the control variables. To evaluate the assimilation procedure thus developed, streamflow was forecast with and without the aid of VAR for three basins in the southern plains under the assumption of perfectly forecast future mean areal precipitation (FMAP). The streamflow forecasts were then compared with each other and with those based on persistence and the state space-based state-updating procedure, the state-space Sacramento model (SS-SAC). The results indicate that the VAR procedure significantly improves the accuracy of the basic forecast at short lead times and compares favorably with SS-SAC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An improved bias correction is applied to daily precipitation measured at Russian North Pole drifting stations during the period from the early 1950s through 1990. The bias-correction method is based on a model accounting for all main systematic errors of precipitation measurement by means of the standard Tretyakov gauge, namely: aerodynamic error; joint effect of wetting, evaporation, and condensation at the gauge collector interior; trace precipitation; and the effect of “false” precipitation due to blowing snow flux into the gauge. The bias-corrected annual precipitation averaged over the entire period and all drifting stations amounts to 165 mm, which is 28% higher than the measured value. Large errors induced by strong winds are to a certain extent compensated by the false precipitation, the amount of which increases with the wind speed and blizzard duration. Annual mean false precipitation comprises 30% of the total measured precipitation. The validity of the obtained bias-corrected estimates, both for the cold season (solid precipitation only) and for the entire year, is supported by a comparison against estimates of the snow water equivalent (SWE) at the drifting stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]