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Land surface models (LSMs) and hydrologic models are parameterized models. The number of involved parameters is often large. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a key step to understand the complex relationships between parameters and between state variables and parameters. SA is also critical to understand system dynamics and to examine the parameter identifiability. In this paper, parameter SA for a fully coupled, physically based, distributed land surface hydrologic model, namely, the Flux-Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (Flux-PIHM), is performed. Multiparameter and single-parameter tests are performed to examine the three dimensions of identifiability: distinguishability, observability, and simplicity. Results show that Flux-PIHM model predictions of discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, land surface temperature, and surface heat fluxes are very sensitive to the selection of parameter values. Parameter uncertainties produce large uncertainties in hydrologic and land surface variable predictions. The van Genuchten parameters α and β and the Zilitinkevich parameter Czil are the most identifiable among the 20 tested parameters. Results indicate that the land surface and the subsurface are closely coupled. Hydrologic parameters have significant influence on land surface simulations. At the same time, land surface parameters have considerable impacts on hydrologic simulations; the evapotranspiration prediction prior to a strong precipitation event is critical for initializing accurate prediction of discharge peaks. Results also show that parameter identifiability depends on seasons and canopy wetness. Parameter identifiability at high and low flow conditions can be extremely different. Complex system dynamics have been revealed during the SA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the incremental improvement of the prediction of the Great Lakes net basin supply (NBS) with the hydrometeorological model Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie (MESH) by increasing the accuracy of the simulated NBS components (overlake precipitation, lake evaporation, and runoff into the lake). This was achieved through a series of experiments with MESH and its parent numerical weather prediction model [the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale model in its regional configuration (GEM Regional)]. With forcing extracted from operational GEM Regional forecasts, MESH underestimated the NBS in fall and winter. The underestimation increased when the GEM precipitation was replaced with its corrected version provided by the Canadian Precipitation Analysis. This pointed to overestimated lake evaporation and prompted the revision of the parameterization of the surface turbulent fluxes over water used both in MESH and GEM. The revised parameterization was validated against turbulent fluxes measured at a point on Lake Superior. Its use in MESH reduced the lake evaporation and largely corrected the NBS underestimation. However, the Lake Superior NBS became overestimated, signaling an inconsistency between the reduced lake evaporation and the prescribed precipitation. To remove the inconsistency, a new forcing dataset (including precipitation) was generated with the GEM model using the revised flux parameterization. A major NBS simulation improvement was obtained with the new atmospheric forcing reflecting the atmospheric response to the modified surface fluxes over the lakes. Additional improvements resulted by correcting the runoff with a modified snowmelt rate and by insertion of observed streamflows. The study shows that accurate lake evaporation simulation is crucial for accurate NBS prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) as a tool for multiscale atmospheric simulations. Tests are performed in real and idealized cases with multiple configurations and with resolutions ranging from the mesoscale (gridcell size ~10 km) for the real cases to local scales (gridcell size ~50 m) for both real and idealized cases. All idealized simulations and the finest real-case simulations use the turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulation mode of WRF (WRF-LES). Tests in neutral conditions and with idealized forcing are first performed to assess the model's sensitivity to grid resolutions and subgrid-scale parameterizations and to optimize the setup of the real cases. An increase in horizontal model resolution is found to be more beneficial than an increase in vertical resolution. WRF-LES is then tested, using extensive observational data, in real-world cases over complex terrain through nested simulations in which the mesoscale domains drive the LES domains. Analysis of the mesoscale simulations indicates that the data needed to force the largest simulated domain and to initialize surface parameters have the strongest influence on the results. Similarly, LES model fields are primarily influenced by their mesoscale meteorological forcing. As a result, the nesting of LES models down to a 50-m resolution does not improve all aspects of hydrometeorological predictions. Advantages of using fine-resolution LES are noted at nighttime (under stable conditions) and over heterogeneous surfaces when local properties are required or when resolving small-scale surface features is desirable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combination methods estimate the partition of sensible and latent heat fluxes at the surface by combining the surface energy balance equation with the transfer equations for temperature and water vapor in the atmospheric surface layer. This paper presents a diagram that graphically depicts the main assumptions and steps of the method. Potential, apparent potential, and actual evaporation rates are visually explained with the diagram. Using a linearized saturation water content relation, the diagram permits the derivation of many of the combination evaporation results by means of geometrical analysis. The diagram should be helpful in the teaching and understanding of the combination methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Water and Global Change (WATCH) project evaluation of the terrestrial water cycle involves using land surface models and general hydrological models to assess hydrologically important variables including evaporation, soil moisture, and runoff. Such models require meteorological forcing data, and this paper describes the creation of the WATCH Forcing Data for 1958-2001 based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and for 1901-57 based on reordered reanalysis data. It also discusses and analyses model-independent estimates of reference crop evaporation. Global average annual cumulative reference crop evaporation was selected as a widely adopted measure of potential evapotranspiration. It exhibits no significant trend from 1979 to 2001 although there are significant long-term increases in global average vapor pressure deficit and concurrent significant decreases in global average net radiation and wind speed. The near-constant global average of annual reference crop evaporation in the late twentieth century masks significant decreases in some regions (e.g., the Murray-Darling basin) with significant increases in others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow, and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. However, in many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators, and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades. There is also serious concern about how anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate drought risk in the future. In this paper, the frequency and severity of droughts are analyzed during a range of “climate states” (e.g., different phases of the Pacific, Indian, and/or Southern Oceans) to demonstrate that drought risk varies markedly over interannual through to multidecadal time scales. Importantly, by accounting for climate variability and change on multitemporal scales (e.g., interdecadal, multidecadal, and the palaeo scale), it is demonstrated that the risk of failure of current drought management practices may be better assessed and more robust climate adaptation responses developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a diagnostic metric—termed the local-convergence ratio—is used to analyze the contribution of evaporation and atmospheric moisture-flux convergence to model-based estimates of climatological precipitation over the North American continent. Generally, the fractional evaporative contribution is largest during spring and summer when evaporation is largest and decreases as evaporation decreases. However, there appears to be at least three regions with distinct spatiotemporal seasonal evolutions of this ratio. Over both the northern and western portions of the continent, the fractional evaporative contribution peaks in spring and early summer and decreases during fall and into winter. Over the northern portion, this fall decrease is related to an increase in atmospheric moisture-flux convergence associated with enhanced meridional moisture fluxes into the region; over the western coastal regions, the fall decrease in evaporative contribution is associated with a decrease in evaporation and an increase in total moisture-flux convergence, most likely associated with increased storm activity. In contrast, over the central portions of the continent, the fractional evaporative contribution to precipitation remains relatively low in spring—when enhanced low-level jet activity increases the low-level atmospheric moisture flux convergence into the region—and instead peaks in summer and fall—when the moisture-flux convergence associated with the low-level jet decreases and precipitation is balanced predominantly by local evaporation. Finally, over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, the fractional evaporative contribution to precipitation is found to contain a wintertime minimum as well as a secondary minimum during summer. This latter feature is due to a substantial increase in low-level atmospheric moisture-flux convergence associated with the large-scale monsoon circulation that influences this region during this time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evapotranspiration (ET) is controlled by atmospheric demand, plant and soil hydraulic constraints, and the plant physiological activities that determine canopy resistance. This paper introduces a new ET scheme developed for the Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) model that integrates these controls into one dynamic system. This scheme is based on solving the governing equation system that represents the coupled canopy energy–water–CO2 transfer dynamics, where the canopy temperature Tc, plant water potential ψc, and leaf intercellular CO2 concentrations Ci are simultaneously obtained and used in ET calculations. Modeled ET was compared with eddy correlation flux measurement at a boreal aspen forest. Results showed that the correlation coefficient (R) between modeled and measured daily ET was greater than 0.96. The average absolute error was approximately 0.3 mm day-1. Modeled ET was generally higher than measured ET by 10%. This is consistent with the energy balance closure analyses from observations that showed that turbulent energy flux was frequently less than 90% of the total available energy. The effects of the plant CO2 and water transfer dynamics on ET simulations were investigated by running the model in two additional settings. These were 1) static Ci—where the ratio of Ci to atmospheric CO2 concentration was set to a constant value, and 2) static ψc—where the ψc was linearly related to soil water potential. The dynamic CO2 transfer scheme and the static Ci scheme produced relatively small differences in ET that mainly occurred at a subdaily time scale. Differences in ET produced using the dynamic water transfer scheme and the static ψc scheme depended on ecosystem water conditions and were more significant when the plant was under water stress. Ignoring the dynamic water transfer process in the model decreased the correlation coefficient between modeled and measured ET more significantly in drier years. This implies that the dynamic water transfer scheme is of more importance for ET estimates in arid or semiarid ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to introduce a diagnostic metric—termed the local-convergence ratio—that can be used to quantify the contribution of evaporation (and transpiration) to the atmospheric hydrologic cycle, and precipitation in particular, over a given region. Previous research into regional moisture (or precipitation) recycling has produced numerous methods for estimating the contributions of “local” (i.e., evaporated) moisture to climatological precipitation and its variations. In general, these metrics quantify the evaporative contribution to the mass of precipitable water within an atmospheric column by comparing the vertically integrated atmospheric fluxes of moisture across a region with the fluxes via evaporation. Here a new metric is proposed, based on the atmospheric moisture tendency equation, which quantifies the evaporative contribution to the rate of precipitation by comparing evaporative convergence into the column with large-scale moisture-flux convergence. Using self-consistent, model-derived estimates of the moisture-flux fields and the atmospheric moisture tendency terms, the authors compare estimates of the flux-based moisture-recycling ratio with the newly introduced local-convergence ratio. Differences between the two ratios indicate that they can be considered complementary, but independent, descriptors of the atmospheric hydroclimatology for a given region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to provide some new understanding of the mechanical as well as thermal effects of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the circulation and climate in Asia through diagnosis and numerical experiments. The air column over the TP descends in winter and ascends in summer and regulates the surface Asian monsoon flow. Sensible heating on the sloping lateral surfaces appears from the authors’ experiments to be the major driving source. The retarding and deflecting effects of the TP in winter generate an asymmetric dipole zonal-deviation circulation, with a large anticyclone gyre to the north and a cyclonic gyre to the south. Such a dipole deviation circulation enhances the cold outbreaks from the north over East Asia, results in a dry climate in south Asia and a moist climate over the Indochina peninsula and south China, and forms the persistent rainfall in early spring (PRES) in south China. In summer the TP heating generates a cyclonic spiral zonal-deviation circulation in the lower troposphere, which converges toward and rises over the TP. It is shown that because the TP is located east of the Eurasian continent, in summertime the meridional winds and vertical motions forced by the Eurasian continental-scale heating and the TP local heating are in phase over the eastern and central parts of the continent. The monsoon in East Asia and the dry climate in middle Asia are therefore intensified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important component of water balance calculations, and these calculations form an equally important role in applications such as irrigation scheduling, pasture productivity forecasts, and groundwater recharge and streamflow modeling. This paper describes a method of interpolating daily PET data calculated at climate stations throughout New Zealand onto a regular 0.05° latitude–longitude grid using a thin-plate smoothing spline model. Maximum use is made of observational data by combining both Penman and Priestley–Taylor PET calculations and raised pan evaporation measurements. An analysis of the interpolation error using 20 validation sites shows that the average root-mean-square error varies between about 1 mm in the summer months to about 0.4 mm in winter. It is advised that interpolated data for areas above 500-m elevation should be used with caution, however, due to the paucity of input data from high-elevation sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Representation of the canopy hydrological processes has been challenging in land surface modeling due to the subgrid heterogeneity in both precipitation and surface characteristics. The Shuttleworth dynamic–statistical method is widely used to represent the impact of the precipitation subgrid variability on canopy hydrological processes but shows unwanted sensitivity to temporal resolution when implemented into land surface models. This paper presents a canopy hydrology scheme that is robust at different temporal resolutions. This scheme is devised by applying two physically based treatments to the Shuttleworth scheme: 1) the canopy hydrological processes within the rain-covered area are treated separately from those within the nonrain area, and the scheme tracks the relative rain location between adjacent time steps; and 2) within the rain-covered area, the canopy interception is so determined as to sustain the potential evaporation from the wetted canopy or is equal to precipitation, whichever is less, to maintain somewhat wet canopy during any rainy time step. When applied to the Amazon region, the new scheme establishes interception loss ratios of 0.3 at a 10-min time step and 0.23 at a 2-h time step. Compared to interception loss ratios of 0.45 and 0.09 at the corresponding time steps established by the original Shuttleworth scheme, the new scheme is much more stable under different temporal resolutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 12 weather and climate models participating in the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) show both a wide variation in the strength of land–atmosphere coupling and some intriguing commonalities. In this paper, the causes of variations in coupling strength—both the geographic variations within a given model and the model-to-model differences—are addressed. The ability of soil moisture to affect precipitation is examined in two stages, namely, the ability of the soil moisture to affect evaporation, and the ability of evaporation to affect precipitation. Most of the differences between the models and within a given model are found to be associated with the first stage—an evaporation rate that varies strongly and consistently with soil moisture tends to lead to a higher coupling strength. The first-stage differences reflect identifiable differences in model parameterization and model climate. Intermodel differences in the evaporation–precipitation connection, however, also play a key role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, observations of key components of the earth's large-scale water and energy budgets are sparse or even nonexistent. One key component, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P - ET), remains largely unmeasured due to the absence of observations of ET. Precipitation minus evapotranspiration describes the flux of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface, and therefore provides important information regarding the interaction of the atmosphere with the land surface. In this paper, large-scale changes in continental water storage derived from satellite gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) project are combined with river discharge data to obtain estimates of areally averaged P - ET. After constructing an equation describing the large-scale terrestrial water balance reflecting the temporal sampling of GRACE water storage estimates, GRACE-derived P - ET estimates are compared to those obtained from a reanalysis dataset [NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2] and a land surface model driven with observation-based forcing [Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah] for two large U.S. river basins. GRACE-derived P - ET compares quite favorably with the reanalysis-2 output, while P - ET from the Noah model shows significant differences. Because the uncertainties in the GRACE results can be computed rigorously, this comparison may be considered as a validation of the models. In addition to showing how GRACE P - ET estimates may be used to validate model output, the accuracy of GRACE estimates of both the seasonal cycle and the monthly averaged rate of P - ET is examined. Finally, the potential for estimating seasonal evapotranspiration is demonstrated by combining GRACE seasonal P - ET estimates with independent estimates of the seasonal cycle of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A diagnostic Lagrangian method to trace the budgets of freshwater fluxes, first described in Part I of this article, is used here to establish source–sink relationships of moisture between earth’s ocean basins and river catchments. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, driven with meteorological analyses, 1.1 million particles, representing the mass of the atmosphere, were tracked over a period of 4 yr. Via diagnosis of the changes of specific humidity along the trajectories, budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E - P) were determined. For validation purposes, E - P budgets were calculated for 39 river catchments and compared with climatological streamflow data for these rivers. Good agreement (explained variance 87%) was found between the two quantities. The E - P budgets were then tracked forward from all of earth’s ocean basins and backward from the 39 major river catchments for a period of 10 days. As much previous work was done for the Mississippi basin, this basin was chosen for a detailed analysis. Moisture recycling over the continent and moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico were identified as the major sources for precipitation over the Mississippi basin, in quantitative agreement with previous studies. In the remainder of the paper, global statistics for source–sink relationships of moisture between the ocean basins and river catchments are presented. They show, for instance, the evaporative capacity of monsoonal flows for precipitation over the Ganges and Niger catchments, and the transport of moisture from both hemispheres to supply the Amazon’s precipitation. In contrast, precipitation in northern Eurasia draws its moisture mainly via recycling over the continent. The atmospheric transport of moisture between different ocean basins was also investigated. It was found that transport of air from the North Pacific produces net evaporation over the North Atlantic, but not vice versa. This helps to explain why the sea surface salinity is higher in the North Atlantic than in the North Pacific, a difference thought to be an important driver of the oceans’ thermohaline circulation. Finally, limitations of the method are discussed and possible future developments are outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many lakes of widely varying morphometry in northern latitudes. For this study region, in the central Mackenzie River valley of western Canada, lakes make up 37% of the landscape. The nonlake components of the landscape are divided into uplands (55%) and wetlands (8%). With such abundance, lakes are important features that can influence the regional climate. This paper examines the role of lakes in the regional surface energy and water balance and evaluates the links to the frequency—size distribution of lakes. The primary purpose is to examine how the surface energy balance may influence regional climate and weather. Lakes are characterized by both the magnitude and temporal behavior of their surface energy balances during the ice-free period. The impacts of combinations of various-size lakes and land-lake distributions on regional energy balances and evaporation cycles are presented. Net radiation is substantially greater over all water-dominated surfaces compared with uplands. The seasonal heat storage increases with lake size. Medium and large lakes are slow to warm in summer. Their large cumulative heat storage, near summer's end, fuels large convective heat fluxes in fail and early winter. The evaporation season for upland, wetland, and small, medium, and large lakes lasts for 19, 21, 22, 24, and 30 weeks, respectively. The regional effects of combinations of surface types are derived. The region is initially treated as comprising uplands only. The influences of wetland, small, medium, and large lakes are added sequentially, to build up to the energy budget of the actual landscape. The addition of lakes increases the regional net radiation, the maximum regional subsurface heat storage. and evaporation substantially. Evaporation decreases slightly in the first half of the season but experiences a large enhancement in the second half. The sensible heat flux is reduced substantially in the first half of the season, but changes little in the second half. For energy budget modeling the representation of lake size is important. Net radiation is fairly independent of size. An equal area of medium and large lakes, compared with small lakes, yields substantially larger latent heat fluxes and lesser sensible heat fluxes. Lake size also creates large differences in regional flux magnitudes, especially in the spring and fall periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaporation is a principal factor in the hydrological cycle and energy exchange; however, estimations of evaporation include large uncertainties. In this study, a modified estimation of evaporation based on empirical linearly simplified Penman evaporation (PES) is proposed, soil moisture and precipitation are used to correct the land surface evaporation estimation, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of the corrected evaporation (CE) are investigated globally. The results show that CE is strong at low latitudes and weak at high latitudes. CE has obvious seasonal variation, ranging from 0.2 to 4.0 mm day−1; CE is prominent in summer but feeble in winter. Compared to PES, CE is generally weaker in most regions, especially in arid regions, with differences of more than 9 mm day−1. CE agrees well with evaporation derived from FLUXNET-Model Tree Ensemble (FLUXNET-MTE), MERRA, and GLDAS. In general, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) between annual CE and FLUXNET-MTE is less than 0.2 mm day−1, and CE is about 5%–10% less than the evaporation of FLUXNET-MTE. In the arid regions, the maximum CE almost occurs in the month with the strongest precipitation; in the tropical regions, soil moisture enhances CE only when precipitation is less. In the context of global temperature rise, PES always shows an apparent increasing trend due to the water supply is not considered; however, CE decreases in western Asia, the western United States, the Amazon basin, and Central Africa, but weakly increases in the other study regions from 1984 to 2013. This study provides a method for estimating evaporation considering more restrictive factors on evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maximum entropy production (MEP) model based on nonequilibrium thermodynamics and the theory of Bayesian probabilities was recently developed to model land surface fluxes, including soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration. This model requires few input data and ensures the closure of the surface energy balance. This study aims to test the capability of such a model to realistically simulate evapotranspiration (ET) over a wide range of climates and vegetation covers. A weighting coefficient is introduced to calculate total ET from soil evaporation and vegetation transpiration over partially vegetated land surfaces, resulting in the MEP-ET model. Using this coefficient, the model outputs are compared with in situ observations of ET at eight FLUXNET sites across the continental United States. Results confirm the close agreement between the MEP-ET predicted daily ET and the corresponding observations at sites characterized by moderately limited water availability. Poor ET results were obtained under high water stress conditions. A regulation parameter was therefore introduced in the MEP-ET model to properly take into account the effects of soil water stress on stomata, yielding the generalized MEP-ET model. This parameter considerably reduced model biases under water stress conditions for various heterogeneous land surface sites. The generalized MEP-ET model outperforms several popular ET models, including Penman-Monteith (PM), modified Priestley-Taylor-Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL), and air-relative-humidity-based two-source model (ARTS) at all test sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation values estimated by radar are assumed to be the amount of precipitation that occurred at the surface, yet this notion is inaccurate. Numerous atmospheric and microphysical processes can alter the precipitation rate between the radar beam elevation and the surface. One such process is evaporation. This study determines the applicability of integrating an evaporation correction scheme for real-time radar-derived mosaicked precipitation rates to reduce quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) overestimation and to reduce the coverage of false surface precipitation. An evaporation technique previously developed for largescale numerical modeling is applied to Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rates through the use of 2D and 3D numerical weather prediction (NWP) atmospheric parameters as well as basic radar properties. Hourly accumulated QPE with evaporation adjustment compared against gauge observations saw an average reduction of the overestimation bias by 57%-76% for rain events and 42%-49% for primarily snow events. The removal of false surface precipitation also reduced the number of hourly gauge observations that were considered as "false zero" observations by 52.1% for rain and 38.2% for snow. Optimum computational efficiency was achieved through the use of simplified equations and hourly 10-km horizontal resolution NWP data. The run time for the evaporation correction algorithm is 6-7 s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intermittency is a core characteristic of precipitation, not well described by data and very poorly modeled. Detailed analyses are made of near-global gridded (about 1°) hourly or 3-hourly precipitation rates from two updated observational datasets [3-hourly TRMM 3B42, version 7, and hourly CMORPH, version 1.0, bias corrected (CRT)] and from special runs of CESM from January 1998 to December 2013 to obtain hourly values. The analyses explore the intermittency of precipitation: the frequency, intensity, duration, and amounts. A comparison is made for all products using several metrics with a focus on the duration of events, and a new metric is proposed based on the ratio of the frequency of precipitation at certain rates (0.2-2 mm h−1) for hourly versus 3-hourly versus daily data. For all seasons and rain rates, TRMM values are similar in pattern to CMORPH, but durations are about 80%-85%. It is mainly over land in the monsoons that CMORPH exceeds TRMM rain durations. Observed duration of precipitation events in CMORPH over oceans are 12-15 h in the tropics and subtropics, much less than the ~20 h for CESM. Hence, the observational results differ somewhat but both are considerably different from the model, which has too much precipitation overall, and it precipitates far too often at low rates and not enough for intense rates, with the divide about 1-2 mm h−1. There is a need to properly represent precipitation phenomena and processes either explicitly or implicitly (parameterized). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets, and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling, and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, future changes of pan evaporation Epan, a measurable indicator for atmospheric evaporative demand, are first projected and attributed over China through a physically based approach, namely, the PenPan model, forced with outputs from 12 state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in Epan projection. The results indicated that Epan would increase during the periods 2021-50 and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period 1971-2000 under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapor pressure deficit over China. The percentage increase of Epan is relatively larger in eastern China than in western China, which is due to the spatially inconsistent increases in air temperature, net radiation, wind speed, and vapor pressure deficit over China. The widely reported 'pan evaporation paradox' was not well reproduced for the period 1961-2000 in the climate models, before or after bias correction, suggesting discrepancy between observed and modeled trends. With that caveat, it was found that the pan evaporation has been projected to increase at a rate of 117-167 mm yr−1 K−1 (72-80 mm yr−1 K−1) over China using the multiple GCMs under the RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario with increased greenhouse gases and the associated warming of the climate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission provides global surface soil moisture retrievals with a revisit time of 2-3 days and a latency of 24 h. Here, to enhance the utility of the SMAP data, an approach is presented for improving real-time soil moisture estimates (nowcasts) and for forecasting soil moisture several days into the future. The approach, which involves using an estimate of loss processes (evaporation and drainage) and precipitation to evolve the most recent SMAP retrieval forward in time, is evaluated against subsequent SMAPretrievals themselves. The nowcast accuracy over the continental United States is shown to be markedly higher than that achieved with the simple yet common persistence approach. The accuracy of soil moisture forecasts, which rely on precipitation forecasts rather than on precipitation measurements, is reduced relative to nowcast accuracy but is still significantly higher than that obtained through persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partitioning evapotranspiration (ET) into soil evaporation E and plant transpiration T is important, but it is still a theoretical and technical challenge. The isotopic technique is considered to be an effective method, but it is difficult to quantify the isotopic composition of transpiration δT and evaporation δE directly and continuously; few previous studies determined δT successfully under a non-steady state (NSS). Here, multiple methods were used to partition ET in a maize field and a new flow-through chamber system was refined to provide direct and continuous measurement of 67- and δE. An eddy covariance and lysimeter (EC-L)-based method and two isotope-based methods [isotope combined with the Craig-Gordon model (Iso-CG) and isotope using chamber measurement (Iso-M)] were applied to partition δT. Results showed the transpiration fraction FT in Iso-CG was consistent with EC-L at both diurnal and growing season time scales, but FT calculated by Iso-M was less than Iso-CG and EC-L. The chamber system method presented here to determine ST under NSS and isotope steady state (ISS) was robust, but there could be some deviation in measuring δE. The FT varied from 52% to 91%, with a mean of 78% during the entire growing season, and it was well described by a function of LAI, with a nonlinear relationship of FT = 0.71LAI0.14. The results demonstrated the feasibility of the isotope-based chamber system to partition ET. This technique and its further development may enable field ET partitioning accurately and continuously and improve understanding of water cycling through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deuterium excess is a second-order parameter linking water-stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes and has been widely used in hydrological studies. The deuterium excess in precipitation is greatly influenced by below-cloud evaporation through unsaturated air, especially in an arid climate. Based on an observation network of isotopes in precipitation of arid central Asia, the difference in deuterium excess from cloud base to ground was calculated for each sampling site. The difference on the southern slope of the Tian Shan is generally larger than that on the northern slope, and the difference during the summer months is greater than that during the winter months. Generally, an increase of 1% in evaporation of raindrops causes deuterium excess to decrease by approximately 1‰. Under conditions of low air temperature, high relative humidity, heavy precipitation, and large raindrop diameter, a good linear correlation is exhibited between evaporation proportion and difference in deuterium excess, and a linear regression slope of <1‰ %−1 can be seen; in contrast, under conditions of high air temperature, low relative humidity, light precipitation, and small raindrop diameter, the linear relationship is relatively weak, and the slope is much larger than 1‰ %−1. A sensitivity analysis under different climate scenarios indicates that, if air temperature has increased by 5°C, deuterium excess difference decreases by 0.3‰-4.0‰ for each site; if relative humidity increases by 10%, deuterium excess difference increases by 1.1‰-10.3‰. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widespread influence of reservoirs on global rivers makes representations of reservoir outflow and storage essential components of large-scale hydrology and climate simulations across the land surface and atmosphere. Yet, reservoirs have yet to be commonly integrated into earth system models. This deficiency influences model processes such as evaporation and runoff, which are critical for accurate simulations of the coupled climate system. This study describes the development of a generalized reservoir model capable of reproducing realistic reservoir behavior for future integration in a global land surface model (LSM). Equations of increasing complexity relating reservoir inflow, outflow, and storage were tested for 14 California reservoirs that span a range of spatial and climate regimes. Temperature was employed in model equations to modulate seasonal changes in reservoir management behavior and to allow for the evolution of management seasonality as future climate varies. Optimized parameter values for the best-performing model were generalized based on the ratio of winter inflow to storage capacity so a future LSM user can generate reservoirs in any grid location by specifying the given storage capacity. Model performance statistics show good agreement between observed and simulated reservoir storage and outflow for both calibration (mean normalized RMSE = 0.48; mean coefficient of determination = 0.53) and validation reservoirs (mean normalized RMSE = 0.15; mean coefficient of determination = 0.67). The low complexity of model equations that include climate-adaptive operation features combined with robust model performance show promise for simulations of reservoir impacts on hydrology and climate within an LSM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of large-scale irrigation in India on the moisture budget of the atmosphere was investigated using three regional climate models and one global climate model, all of which performed an irrigated run and a natural run without irrigation. Using a common irrigation map, year-round irrigation was represented by adding water to the soil moisture to keep it at 90% of the maximum soil moisture storage capacity, regardless of water availability. For two focus regions, the seasonal cycle of irrigation matched that of the reference dataset, but irrigation application varied between the models by up to 0.8 mm day−1. Because of the irrigation, evaporation increased in all models, but precipitation decreased because of a strong decrease in atmospheric moisture convergence. A moisture tracking scheme was used to track individual evaporated moisture parcels through the atmosphere to determine where these lead to precipitation. Up to 35% of the evaporation moisture from the Ganges basin is recycling within the river basin. However, because of a decreased moisture convergence into the river basin, the total amount of precipitation in the Ganges basin decreases. Although a significant fraction of the evaporation moisture recycles within the river basin, the changes in large-scale wind patterns due to irrigation shift the precipitation from the eastern parts of India and Nepal to the northern and western parts of India and Pakistan. In these areas where precipitation increases, the relative precipitation increase is larger than the relative decrease in the areas where precipitation decreases. It is concluded 1) that the direct effects of irrigation on precipitation are small and are not uniform across the models; 2) that a fraction of up to 35% of any marginal evaporation increase (for example, due to irrigation) will recycle within the river basin; and 3) that when irrigation is applied on a large scale, the dominant effect will be a change in large-scale atmospheric flow that decreases precipitation in eastern India and increases it in western and northern India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations have shown that differences in surface energy fluxes over grasslands and forests are amplified during heat waves. The role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in this process is still uncertain. In this study, a single-column model (SCM) is used to investigate the difference between forest and grassland in their energy response to heat waves. Three simulations for the period 2005-11 were carried out: a control run using vegetation characteristics for Cabauw (the Netherlands), a run where the vegetation is changed to 100% forest, and a run with 100% short grass as vegetation. A surface evaporation tendency equation is used to analyze the impact of the land-atmosphere feedbacks on evapotranspiration and sensible heat release under normal summer and heat wave conditions with excessive shortwave radiation. Land-atmosphere feedbacks modify the contrast in surface energy fluxes between forest and grass, particularly during heat wave conditions. The surface resistance feedback has the largest positive impact, while boundary layer feedbacks generally tend to reduce the contrast. Overall, forests give higher air temperatures and drier atmospheres during heat waves. In offline land surface model simulations, the difference between forest and grassland during heat waves cannot be diagnosed adequately owing to the absence of boundary layer feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the ability of a new drought metric based on thermal infrared remote sensing imagery to provide early warning of an elevated risk for drought intensification is assessed. This new metric, called the rapid change index (RCI), is designed to highlight areas undergoing rapid changes in moisture stress as inferred from weekly changes in the evaporative stress index (ESI) generated using the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) surface energy balance model. Two case study analyses across the central United States revealed that the initial appearance of negative RCI values indicative of rapid increases in moisture stress preceded the introduction of severe-to-exceptional drought in the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) by more than 4 weeks. Using data from 2000 to 2012, the probability of USDM intensification of at least one, two, or three categories over different time periods was computed as a function of the RCI magnitude. Compared to baseline probabilities, the RCI-derived probabilities often indicate a much higher risk for drought development that increases greatly as the RCI becomes more negative. When the RCI is strongly negative, many areas are characterized by intensification probabilities that are several times higher than the baseline climatology. The highest probabilities encompass much of the central and eastern United States, with the greatest increase over climatology within regions most susceptible to rapid drought development. These results show that the RCI provides useful drought early warning capabilities that could be used to alert stakeholders of an increased risk for drought development over subseasonal time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tendency of the relative humidity at the top of a clear convective boundary layer (RHtop) is studied as an indicator of cloud formation over a semiarid region within the conceptual framework introduced by Ek and Holtslag. Typically the tendency of RHtop increases if the evaporative fraction at the land surface increases, which supports boundary layer moistening but only when boundary layer growth is limited by atmospheric factors. This regime was supported by Cabauw observations in the original study. Here, new observational evidence that the tendency of RHtop can also increase as the surface becomes more dry, as is consistent with another regime of the conceptual framework, is provided. The observations used are from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (AMMA) intensive observational campaign near Niamey, Niger, 20-25 June 2006. In addition, the authors evaluate whether various versions of the Weather Research and Forecasting single-column model confirm the different regimes of the conceptual framework for a typical day in the AMMA campaign. It appears that the model confirms that dryer soils can support cloud formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To understand the sources of temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric evaporative demand across the conterminous United States (CONUS), a mean-value, second-moment uncertainty analysis is applied to a spatially distributed dataset of daily synthetic pan evaporation for 1980-2009. This evaporative demand measure is from the 'PenPan' model, which is a combination equation calibrated to mimic observations from U.S. class-A evaporation pans and here driven by six North American Land Data Assimilation System variables: temperature, specific humidity, station pressure, wind speed, and downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation. The variability of evaporative demand is decomposed across various time scales into contributions from these drivers. Contrary to popular expectation and much hydrologic practice, temperature is not always the most significant driver of temporal variability in evaporative demand, particularly at subannual time scales. Instead, depending on the season, one of four drivers (temperature, specific humidity, downwelling shortwave radiation, and wind speed) dominates across different regions of CONUS. Temperature generally dominates in the northern continental interior. This analysis assists land surface modelers in balancing parameter parsimony and physical representativeness. Patterns of dominant drivers are shown to cycle seasonally, with clear implications for modeling evaporative demand in operational hydrology or as a metric of climate change and variability. Depending on the region and season, temperature, specific humidity, downwelling shortwave radiation, and wind speed must together be examined, with downwelling longwave radiation as a secondary input. If any variable may be ignored, it is atmospheric pressure. Parameterizations of evaporative demand based solely on temperature should be avoided at all time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The components of the land surface energy balance respond to periodic incoming radiation forcing with different amplitude and phase characteristics. Evaporative fraction (EF), the ratio of latent heat to available energy at the land surface, supposedly isolates surface control (soil moisture and vegetation) from radiation and turbulent factors. EF is thus supposed to be a diagnostic of the surface energy balance that is constant or self-preserved during daytime. If this holds, EF can be an effective way to estimate surface characteristics from temperature and energy flux measurements. Evidence for EF diurnal self-preservation is based on limited-duration field measurements. The daytime EF self-preservation using both long-term measurements and a model of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum is reexamined here. It is demonstrated that EF is rarely constant and that its temporal power spectrum is wide; thus emphasizing the role of all diurnal frequencies associated with reduced predictability in its daylight response. Oppositely, surface turbulent heat fluxes are characterized by a strong response to the principal daily frequencies (daily and semi-daily) of the solar radiative forcing. It is shown that the phase lag and bias between the turbulent flux components of the surface energy balance are key to the shape of the daytime EF. Therefore, an understanding of the physical factors that affect the phase lag and bias in the response of the components of the surface energy balance to periodic radiative forcing is needed. A linearized model of the soil-vegetation-atmosphere continuum is used that can be solved in terms of harmonics to explore the physical factors that determine the phase characteristics. The dependency of these phase and offsets on environmental parameters-friction velocity, water availability, solar radiation intensity, relative humidity, and boundary layer entrainment-is then analyzed using the model that solves the dynamics of subsurface and atmospheric boundary layer temperatures and heat fluxes in a continuum. Additionally, the asymptotical diurnal lower limit of EF is derived as a function of these surface parameters and shown to be an important indicator of the self-preservation value when the conditions (also identified) for such behavior are present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

River basin managers concerned with maintaining water supplies and mitigating flood risk in the face of climate change are taking outputs from climate models and using them in hydrological models for assessment purposes. While precipitation is the main output used, evaporation is attracting increasing attention because of its significance to the water balance of river basins. Climate models provide estimates of actual evaporation that are consistent with their simplified land surface schemes but do not naturally provide the estimates of potential evaporation (PE) commonly required as input to hydrological models. There are clear advantages in using PE estimates controlled by atmospheric forcings when using stand-alone hydrological models with integral soil-moisture accounting schemes. The atmosphere-land decoupling approximation that PE provides can prove to be of further benefit if it is possible to account for the effect of different, or changing, land cover on PE outside of the climate model. The methods explored here estimate Penman-Monteith PE from vegetated surfaces using outputs from climate models that have an embedded land surface scheme. The land surface scheme enables an examination of the dependence of canopy stomatal resistance on atmospheric composition, and the sensitivity of PE estimates to the choice of canopy resistance values under current and changing climates is demonstrated. The conclusions have practical value for climate change impact studies relating to flood, drought, and water management applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several land surface datasets, such as the observed Illinois soil moisture dataset; three retrospective offline run datasets from the Noah land surface model (LSM), Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) LSM, and Climate Prediction Center leaky bucket soil model; and three reanalysis datasets (North American Regional Reanalysis, NCEP/Department of Energy Global Reanalysis, and 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis), are used to study the spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture and its response to the major components of land surface hydrologic cycles: precipitation, evaporation, and runoff. Detailed analysis was performed on the evolution of the soil moisture vertical profile. Over Illinois, model simulations are compared to observations, but for the United States as a whole some impressions can be gained by comparing the multiple soil moisture-precipitation-evaporation-runoff datasets to one another. The magnitudes and partitioning of major land surface water balance components on seasonal-interannual time scales have been explored. It appears that evaporation has the most prominent annual cycle but its interannual variability is relatively small. For other water balance components, such as precipitation, runoff, and surface water storage change, the amplitudes of their annual cycles and interannual variations are comparable. This study indicates that all models have a certain capability to reproduce observed soil moisture variability on seasonal-interannual time scales, but offline runs are decidedly better than reanalyses (in terms of validation against observations) and more highly correlated to one another (in terms of intercomparison) in general. However, noticeable differences are also observed, such as the degree of simulated drought severity and the locations affected-this is due to the uncertainty in model physics, input forcing, and mode of running (interactive or offline), which continue to be major issues for land surface modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical correction is applied to wind, temperature, and soil moisture fields in a climate model to assess its impact on simulation of the water cycle during boreal summer. The empirical correction method is based on the biases in model forecasts only as a function of the time of year. Corrections are applied to the prognostic equations as an extra nudging term. Mean fields of evaporation, precipitation, moisture transport, and recycling ratio are all improved, even though humidity fields were not corrected. Simulation of the patterns of surface evaporation supplying rainfall at locations over land is also improved for most locations. There is also improvement in the simulation of evaporation and possibly rainfall, as measured by anomaly correlation coefficients and root-mean-square errors of the time series of monthly anomalies. However, monthly anomalies of other water cycle fields such as moisture transport and recycling ratio were not improved. Like any statistical adjustment, empirical correction does not address the cause of model errors, but it does provide a net improvement to the simulation of the water cycle. It can, however, be used to diagnose the sources of error in the model. Since corrections are only applied to prognostic variables, shortcomings due to physical parameterizations in the model are not remedied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous studies have attempted to address the land–precipitation coupling, but scientists’ understanding remains limited and discrepancies still exist from different studies. A new parameter Γ is proposed here to estimate the land–precipitation coupling strength based on the ratio of the covariance between monthly or seasonal precipitation and evaporation anomalies (from their climatological means) over the variance of precipitation anomalies. The Γ value is easy to compute and insensitive to the horizontal scales used; however, it does not provide causality. A relatively high Γ is a necessary—but not sufficient—condition for a relatively strong land–precipitation coupling. A computation of Γ values using two global reanalyses (ECMWF and NCEP), one regional reanalysis [North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)], and observed precipitation along with Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)-derived evaporation data indicates that the land–precipitation coupling is stronger in summer and weaker in winter. The strongest coupling (i.e., hot spots) occurs over the western and central parts of North America, part of the Eurasia midlatitude, and Sahel in boreal summer and over most of Australia, Argentina, and South Africa in austral summer. The Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) shows much higher Γ values, consistent with the strong coupling shown by its atmosphere–land coupled components in previous studies. Its overall spatial pattern of Γ values is not affected much over most regions by the doubling of CO2 in CCSM3. The Γ values from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) are more realistic than those from CCSM3; however, they are still higher than those from observations over North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent study the authors developed the first regionally averaged, transnational records of snowpack and streamflow for the Andes between 30° and 37°S using Chilean and Argentinean data. That study was mainly intended to evaluate the relationships between the interannual variations in the regional snowpack record and large-scale atmospheric variables and indices. Here the focus is on the main intra- to multidecadal variations in updated records of winter snowpack and mean annual river flows. River discharges show similar temporal variations on both sides of the Andes with extreme dry conditions concentrated between the mid-1940s and 1976/77 and extreme wet conditions peaking between the late 1970s and the 1980s. A regional streamflow composite (1906–2007) has a nonsignificant negative trend but significant regime shifts in 1945, when mean levels dropped 31%, and in 1977 when they increased 28%. These events coincide almost exactly with well-known shifts in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The analyses are preliminary but suggest a PDO influence on the low-frequency modes of hydroclimatic variability in the study area. Analyses of the magnitude of 5–20-yr moving windows in the regional streamflow composite indicate that the most significant concentration of high (low) discharges occurred between 1977 and 1987 (1954 and 1971). Snowpack series show a more heterogeneous pattern of variations on a local basis but when aggregated into a regional series (1951–2008) they share remarkable similarities with river flows. However, the snowpack composite has a stronger year-to-year variability, a slight positive trend, and no significant regime shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends of decreasing pan evaporation around the world have renewed interest in evaporation and its behavior in a warming world. Observed pan evaporation around Australia has been modeled to attribute changes in its constituent variables. It is found that wind speed decreases have generally led to decreases in pan evaporation. Trends were also calculated from reanalysis and general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The reanalysis reflected the general pattern and magnitude of the observed station trends across Australia. However, unlike the station trends, the reanalysis trends are mainly driven by vapor pressure deficit changes than wind speed changes. Some of the GCMs modeled the trends well, but most showed an average positive trend for Australia. Half the GCMs analyzed show increasing wind speed trends, and most show larger changes in vapor pressure deficit than would be expected based on the station data. Future changes to open water body evaporation have also been assessed using projections for two emission scenarios. Averaged across Australia, the models show a 5% increase in open water body evaporation by 2070 compared to 1990 levels. There is considerable variability in the model projections, particularly for the aerodynamic component of evaporation. Assumptions of increases in evaporation in a warming world need to be considered in light of the variability in the parameters that affect evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integration of simulated and observed states through data assimilation as well as model evaluation requires a realistic representation of soil moisture in land surface models (LSMs). However, soil moisture in LSMs is sensitive to a range of uncertain input parameters, and intermodel differences in parameter values are often large. Here, the effect of soil parameters on soil moisture and evapotranspiration are investigated by using parameters from three different LSMs participating in the European Land Data Assimilation System (ELDAS) project. To prevent compensating effects from other than soil parameters, the effects are evaluated within a common framework of parsimonious stochastic soil moisture models. First, soil parameters are shown to affect soil moisture more strongly than the average evapotranspiration. In arid climates, the effect of soil parameters is on the variance rather than the mean, and the intermodel flux differences are smallest. Soil parameters from the ELDAS LSMs differ strongly, most notably in the available moisture content between the wilting point and the critical moisture content, which differ by a factor of 3. The ELDAS parameters can lead to differences in mean volumetric soil moisture as high as 0.10 and an average evapotranspiration of 10%–20% for the investigated parameter range. The parsimonious framework presented here can be used to investigate first-order parameter sensitivities under a range of climate conditions without using full LSM simulations. The results are consistent with many other studies using different LSMs under a more limited range of possible forcing conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A retrieval of available water fraction ( fAW) is proposed using surface flux estimates from satellite-based thermal infrared (TIR) imagery and the Atmosphere–Land Exchange Inversion (ALEXI) model. Available water serves as a proxy for soil moisture conditions, where fAW can be converted to volumetric soil moisture through two soil texture dependents parameters—field capacity and permanent wilting point. The ability of ALEXI to provide valuable information about the partitioning of the surface energy budget, which can be largely dictated by soil moisture conditions, accommodates the retrieval of an average fAW over the surface to the rooting depth of the active vegetation. For this method, the fraction of actual to potential evapotranspiration ( fPET) is computed from an ALEXI estimate of latent heat flux and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The ALEXI-estimated fPET can be related to fAW in the soil profile. Four unique fPET to fAW relationships are proposed and validated against Oklahoma Mesonet soil moisture observations within a series of composite periods during the warm seasons of 2002–04. Using the validation results, the most representative of the four relationships is chosen and shown to produce reasonable (mean absolute errors values less than 20%) fAW estimates when compared to Oklahoma Mesonet observations. Quantitative comparisons between ALEXI and modeled fAW estimates from the Eta Data Assimilation System (EDAS) are also performed to assess the possible advantages of using ALEXI soil moisture estimates within numerical weather predication (NWP) simulations. This TIR retrieval technique is advantageous over microwave techniques because of the ability to indirectly sense fAW—and hence soil moisture conditions—extending into the root-zone layer. Retrievals are also possible over dense vegetation cover and are available on spatial resolutions on the order of the native TIR imagery. A notable disadvantage is the inability to retrieve fAW conditions through cloud cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multidecadal simulations over the continental United States by an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an ocean general circulation model is compared with that forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). The differences in the mean and the variability of precipitation are found to be larger in the boreal summer than in the winter. This is because the mean SST differences in the two simulations are qualitatively comparable between the two seasons. The analysis shows that, in the boreal summer season, differences in moisture flux convergence resulting from changes in the circulation between the two simulations initiate and sustain changes in precipitation between them. This difference in precipitation is, however, further augmented by the contributions from land surface evaporation, resulting in larger differences of precipitation between the two simulations. However, in the boreal winter season, despite differences in the moisture flux convergence between the two model integrations, the precipitation differences over the continental United States are insignificant. It is also shown that land–atmosphere feedback is comparatively much weaker in the boreal winter season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both the global precipitation and evaporation in global warming simulations increase at 1%–3% K-1, much smaller than the rate suggested from the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relation (6%–6.5% K-1). However, the reduction of surface sensible heat flux over the global ocean (5.2% K-1) matches the difference between the fractional increase of evaporation and the C–C relation, implying that the fractional decrease of the Bowen ratio over the global ocean follows the C–C relation closely. The analysis suggests that the stabilization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in response to global warming is the main factor responsible for the simultaneous reduction of the surface sensible flux and the muted increase in the surface latent heat. Because the stabilization of the ABL causes the same amount of fractional change in both the sensible and latent heat fluxes, the fractional decrease of the Bowen ratio closely follows the C–C relation. The ABL stabilization mechanism for the muted increase in the global hydrological cycle in response to global warming is physically consistent with two other proposed mechanisms, namely, the atmospheric energy constraint and the reduction of convective mass flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is of interest for regional water resources management, especially in areas of the world where fine-tuning of agricultural water demands over large areas is required. This study provides a strategy for mapping ET0 in regions with low meteorological data availability. For Andalusia, Spain, it involves estimating ET0 from temperature data using a locally calibrated version of the Hargreaves equation and the application of geostatistical interpolation techniques that take into account elevation as secondary information. Average annual ET0 at 191 observatories (with elevation between 0 and 1260 m) ranged from 954 to 1460 mm, with an average of 1283 mm, a standard deviation of 99 mm, and a correlation coefficient with elevation of -0.86. Simple kriging with varying local means (SKlm) and kriging with an external drift (KED)—two methods that take into account elevation as secondary information—increased spatial model efficiency by 30% as compared to ordinary kriging. SKlm was used for mapping ET0 since it better reproduced the descriptive statistics of the point data and yielded slightly smaller root-mean-squared estimation errors than KED. The spatial correlation of annual and monthly ET0 was well structured and anisotropic. Short-range variability, for separation distances up to 20–40 km, showed a strong linear increase with distance while long-range variability, up to 130–250 km, increased more gently with distance. The results of this structural analysis are relevant for the spatial optimization of a recently installed automated ET0 observation network, while obtained maps constitute a valuable tool for regional water resources evaluation, planning, and management and contribute to optimizing water use in local irrigated agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at stimulating the development of soil moisture data assimilation systems in a direction where they can provide both the necessary control of slow drift in operational NWP applications and support the physical insight in the performance of the land surface component. It addresses four topics concerning the systematic nature of soil moisture data assimilation experiments over Europe during the growing season of 2000 involving the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model infrastructure. In the first topic the effect of the (spinup related) bias in 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) precipitation on the data assimilation is analyzed. From results averaged over 36 European locations, it appears that about half of the soil moisture increments in the 2000 growing season are attributable to the precipitation bias. A second topic considers a new soil moisture data assimilation system, demonstrated in a coupled single-column model (SCM) setup, where precipitation and radiation are derived from observations instead of from atmospheric model fields. For many of the considered locations in this new system, the accumulated soil moisture increments still exceed the interannual variability estimated from a multiyear offline land surface model run. A third topic examines the soil water budget in response to these systematic increments. For a number of Mediterranean locations the increments successfully increase the surface evaporation, as is expected from the fact that atmospheric moisture deficit information is the key driver of soil moisture adjustment. In many other locations, however, evaporation is constrained by the experimental SCM setup and is hardly affected by the data assimilation. Instead, a major portion of the increments eventually leave the soil as runoff. In the fourth topic observed evaporation is used to evaluate the impact of the data assimilation on the forecast quality. In most cases, the difference between the control and data assimilation runs is considerably smaller than the (positive) difference between any of the simulations and the observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil-water evaporation is important at scales ranging from microbial ecology to large-scale climate. Yet routine measurements are unable to capture rapidly shifting near-surface soil heat and water processes involved in soil-water evaporation. The objective of this study was to determine the depth and location of the evaporation zone within soil. Three-needle heat-pulse sensors were used to monitor soil heat capacity, thermal conductivity, and temperature below a bare soil surface in central Iowa during natural wetting/drying cycles. Soil heat flux and changes in heat storage were calculated from these data to obtain a balance of sensible heat components. The residual from this balance, attributed to latent heat from water vaporization, provides an estimate of in situ soil-water evaporation. As the soil dried following rainfall, results show divergence in the soil sensible heat flux with depth. Divergence in the heat flux indicates the location of a heat sink associated with soil-water evaporation. Evaporation estimates from the sensible heat balance provide depth and time patterns consistent with observed soil-water depletion patterns. Immediately after rainfall, evaporation occurred near the soil surface. Within 6 days after rainfall, the evaporation zone proceeded > 13 mm into the soil profile. Evaporation rates at the 3-mm depth reached peak values > 0.25 mm h-1. Evaporation occurred simultaneously at multiple measured depth increments, but with time lag between peak evaporation rates for depths deeper below the soil surface. Implementation of finescale measurement techniques for the soil sensible heat balance provides a new opportunity to improve understanding of soil-water evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calibration of land surface models improves simulations of surface water and energy fluxes and provides important information for water resources management. However, most calibration studies focus on local sites and/or small catchments because of computational limitations, lack of atmospheric forcing data, and lack of observed water and energy fluxes. Even though a well-established streamflow gauge network exists, its data are not well suited to the calibration of land surface models in cold regions because of large systematic precipitation biases. This study provides a newly developed method to adjust systematic precipitation biases arising from gauge undercatch (e.g., wind blowing, wetting loss, and evaporation loss). The new method estimates model parameter and precipitation errors simultaneously through the use of observed annual streamflow in the northeastern United States. The results show that this method improves streamflow simulations and gives a reasonable estimate for systematic precipitation bias. In addition, the impacts of model parameter errors on the calibration of the Land Dynamics (LaD) model and on the estimation of systematic precipitation biases are investigated in the northeastern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) generally show a decrease in the dry season evapotranspiration (ET) rate over the entire Amazon basin. Based on anecdotal observations, it has been suggested that they probably overestimate tropical rain forest water stress. In this study, eddy covariance flux measurements from eight different towers of the Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) were used to provide a first look at the spatial variability and temporal cycle of ET throughout the basin. Results show strong seasonality in ET for stations near the equator (2°–3°S), with ET increasing during the dry season (June–September) and decreasing during the wet season (December–March), both correlated (0.75 to 0.94) and in phase with the net radiation annual cycle. In stations located farther south (9°–11°S) no clear seasonality could be identified in either net radiation or ET. For these more southerly stations, net radiation and ET are still correlated (0.76–0.92) in the wet season, but correlations decrease in the dry season (0–0.71), which is likely associated with water stress. For both pasture sites, located in southern Amazonia, ET decreases during the second half of the dry season, indicating progressively increased water stress. GCMs and RCMs indeed tend to overestimate dry season water stress in the Amazon basin and, therefore, should be revised to better simulate this region, which has a key role in the global hydrometeorology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the impact of anomalous soil moisture conditions on subsequent precipitation over North America, a series of numerical experiments is performed using a modified version of the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 and the Community Land Model version 3 (CAM3–CLM3). First, the mechanisms underlying the impact of spring and summer soil moisture on subsequent precipitation are examined based on simulations starting on 1 April and 1 June, respectively. How the response of precipitation to initial soil moisture anomalies depends on the characteristics of such anomalies, including the timing, magnitude, spatial coverage, and vertical depth, is then investigated. There are five main findings. First, the impact of spring soil moisture anomalies is not evident until early summer although their impact on the large-scale circulation results in slight changes in precipitation during spring. Second, precipitation increases with initial soil moisture almost linearly within a certain range of soil moisture. Beyond this range, precipitation is less responsive. Third, during the first month following the onset of summer soil moisture anomalies, the precipitation response to wet anomalies is larger in magnitude than that to dry anomalies. However, the resulting wet anomalies in precipitation quickly dissipate within a month or so, while the resulting dry anomalies in precipitation remain at a considerable magnitude for a longer period. Consistently, wet spring anomalies are likely to be ameliorated before summer, and thus have a smaller impact (in magnitude) on summer precipitation than dry spring anomalies. Fourth, soil moisture anomalies of smaller spatial coverage lead to precipitation anomalies that are smaller and less persistent, compared to anomalies at the continental scale. Finally, anomalies in shallow soil can persist long enough to influence the subsequent precipitation at the seasonal time scale. Dry anomalies in deep soils last much longer than those in shallow soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the physical bounds on soil moisture content and the nonlinear relationship between soil moisture and evaporation lead to distinct geographical patterns in key surface energy and water balance variables. In particular, simple hydrological considerations suggest—and extensive AGCM simulations confirm—that the variance and skew of seasonally averaged [June–August (JJA)] air temperature on the planet should be maximized in specific, and different, regions: a variance maximum should appear on the dry side of the soil moisture variance maximum, and a positive skew maximum should appear on the wet side of the temperature variance maximum. These ideas are tested with multidecade observational temperature data from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). In the United States, where sufficient data exist, the predicted patterns in the seasonal temperature moments show up where expected. These results suggest that hydrological considerations do indeed control the patterns of seasonal temperature variance and skew in nature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of a simple and low-cost portable weighing microlysimeter that makes use of a load cell for automated recording and for studying daily dew formation, rate of accumulation, and subsequent evaporation in arid or semiarid regions during rainless seasons is presented. The sampling cup is 3.5 cm deep, with the load cell itself situated at 20-cm depth to minimize temperature effects. The device was tested in a sand dune experimental station situated near Nizzana, northwest Negev Desert, Israel, during which extensive micrometeorological measurements were collected. One microlysimeter was placed in a playa and a second was installed on the stabilized midslope of an adjacent linear sand dune. To assess the performance of the load cell microlysimeters (LCM), one pair of manual microlysimeters was installed next to each LCM. A third pair was installed at a point between the LCMs and a fourth pair above the midslope LCM. Sixteen overnight measurements were carried out within a 6-week period. The LCM could measure dew with an error of ±0.02 mm. The daily dew variation in the samples during the 16 overnight measurements ranged up to 0.2 mm on stable dune slopes but up to 0.4 mm on the playa. This difference is attributed to the playa’s high silt and clay content and salinity. Dew formation and accumulation were found to occur long before the soil-surface temperature reached the dewpoint temperature of the air. The cost of building this microlysimeter, excluding labor, is about $175 (U.S.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-97 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi, and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, passive tracers are included to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin's precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin recycling has only a weak interannual correspondence with evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin precipitation and recycling have strong interannual correlation on evaporation. The evaporation is related to the moist and shallow planetary boundary layer that provides moisture for convection at the cloud base. At global scales, high precipitation recycling is also found to be partly correlated to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-yr period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real-time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values of the different recycling methods are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin-scale water budgets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]